Jason Bartlett isn’t overpriced — he’s underpriced!!

Published by Mike D in: Author-MikeD Draft Prep News Player Analysis

In an article about Jason Bartlett earlier this off-season, I pointed out that if the Rays traded Carl Crawford to free up money, Bartlett would become the leadoff hitter on a daily basis, greatly increasing his value. The Rays did not trade Crawford, but it appears that Bartlett will hit first in the Rays order with Crawford hitting behind him, which is the best of both worlds for Bartlett owners.

Bartlett achieved his career year on 500 at-bats, but will have 20% more at-bats in 2010. The cumulative categories (Home runs, stolen bases, RBIs and runs) can only be positively affected by 100 more at-bats. Even with a slight regression in production per at-bat, last year’s numbers are more than achievable; they can be exceeded. Let’s look at how 600 at-bats in the leadoff position should affect Bartlett’s 2010 numbers.
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Quick Fix: Fantasy Baseball Notes

Published by Keith Giordano in: Author-Keith Draft Prep News Player Analysis

Brandon Webb (SP – ARI) – After looking good early in camp, it now looks like there is a chance Brandon Webb is not ready for the beginning of the season. This should scare off plenty of your competition from him altogether. However, keep tracking him. Right now, I rank him right around Rich Harden, meaning that I expect about 150 innings from him in 2010. If it looks like he will only miss the first few starts of the year, take the small discount and gamble on him. If it looks like longer, beware.

Russell Martin  (C – LAD) –  Four to six weeks?  Ugh.  Those of you waiting to get Martin at a discount this year will get an even bigger one if you are willing to gamble on the health of his groin.  This puts the best case scenario have Martin starting the season on the D.L., and realistically missing the first 3-4 weeks of the season.  
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Quick Fix: Fantasy Baseball Notes

Published by Keith Giordano in: Author-Keith Draft Prep News Player Analysis

Cole Hamels  (SP – PHI) –  Hamels is experimenting with at least one new pitch.  After a disappointing 2009 where he not only put up lesser fantasy numbers, he drew criticism for his comments in the post season.  His secondary numbers from 2009 were not that different from his career norms, though his K/9 rate has decreased over the last few seasons.  I expect a nice rebound from him regardless of the new pitches he throws.  The presence of Roy Halladay in the #1 rotation spot should take some pressure off of Hamels.

Mark DeRosa  (3B/OF – SF) –  Mark DeRosa is still dealing with some soreness in his wrist.  He had surgery on it in the off-season and it has still not fully recovered.  This is very bad news for his fantasy value, which had already taken a big hit for two reasons.  Firstly, in 2009 his OBP dropped 60 points from his previous two seasons.  
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2010 Spring Training Questions

Published by Keith Giordano in: Author-Keith Draft Prep News Player Analysis

Spring training is there for a reason.  There are questions that managers need to answer that only an up close and personal evaluation of the talent in front of them can answer.  The same can be said about fantasy baseball GMs.  We need information.  For all of the prognosticating that so-called fantasy baseball experts (like me) do in the off-season, a player’s performance in spring training can drastically affect whether or not a player has value in the upcoming season.  A great performance in the spring can win a job for a player thought to be irrelevant.  The opposite is also true.  A player that has been listed as the front-runner for a job the entire off-season can lose that job and be sent to the minors if they seem overmatched in their March performance.  So what should we be watching to make sure our information is up to date?  Here are some of the things I need to see.
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Quick Fix: Fantasy Baseball Notes

Published by Keith Giordano in: Author-Keith Draft Prep News Player Analysis

Fernando Rodney  (RP – LAA) –  According to Rodney, he is not after the closer’s role.  However, he doesn’t have to necessarily be after it to wind up in it.  Brian Fuentes is getting up there in age, and his effectiveness took a big hit in 2009.  After all, there was a reason that the Angels felt the need to sign Rodney in the first place.  While Rodney’s WHIP was just as bad as Fuentes in 2009, it would not be a surprise to see some sort of committee in the bullpen should Fuentes continue to allow so many base-runners in early 2010.  An interesting stat:  Despite Rodney’s 1.47 WHIP in 2009, he blew only 1 save in 38 chances.

Bobby Jenks  (RP – CWS) –  I like Bobby Jenks for the 2010 season.  He has showed up to camp 20 pounds lighter, and has quit drinking alcohol.  In 2009 his K/9 rate rose for the first time in years, and he seems to be re-decicating himself to his craft.  
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Quick Fix: Fantasy Baseball Notes

Published by Keith Giordano in: Author-Keith Draft Prep News Player Analysis

A few player notes on the latest happenings in the world of fantasy baseball….

Ben Sheets  (SP – OAK) –  Sheets is telling anyone that will listen that he is 100% healthy this season.  While this is normal talk for an injury prone player like Sheets, this is also the type of player that can help you win the league.  He has no stats from 2009 for your competition to see, so he could fly right under their radar.  
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Predictions

Published by Keith Giordano in: Author-Keith Draft Prep Fantasy Baseball Theory Player Analysis

It is time for me to look into my crystal ball and tell you all the fantasy baseball things you are dying to know.  Let’s do it again.  Feel free to add your names for these categories or make up new ones in the comments section at the end of the article.  I look into my crystal ball, and this is what I see…

A.L. ROY – Michael Brantley –  Will win the job, hit for average, steal bases.

N.L. ROY – Jason Heyward – Should be starting from the beginning of the season.
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Comeback Players

Published by Keith Giordano in: Author-Keith Draft Prep Player Analysis

There are several ways for a fantasy baseball manager to find bargains in a draft or auction.  The first one is to target the younger players that have yet to prove themselves as fantasy assets at the major league level.  Players such as Matt LaPorta or Neftali Feliz would fall into this category.  They could be great, they could be busts.  All that is certain is that they haven’t succeed yet, and that keeps their price and profile low enough to make them potential bargains.  The second way is to just get purely lucky by drafting a player who happens to have a career year out of nowhere (Aaron Hill, Jason Bartlett).  The third way is to target those players who have had success at the major league level, but due to injury or decline due to other factors have seen their price plummet in a short time span.  It is this third group that is the safest for you to invest, since given health most of these players will sustain a certain amount of rebound.  The question is who are the best bets to make the biggest recovery?  Let’s take a look at some…
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Quick Fix: Fantasy Baseball Thoughts

Published by Keith Giordano in: Author-Keith Draft Prep News Player Analysis

Ah!  Pitchers at catchers are reporting for several teams today, and within a few more days we will be hearing news of our fantasy baseball sleepers from all over the league.  In the mean time, here are some thoughts on some relevant names for the 2010 fantasy baseball season.

Matt Garza  (SP – TB) –  I like seeing his K/9 rate jump over 2 Ks to 8.38 in 2009.  His BAA also dropped to .236.  If he can shake the increase in his BB/9 rate, Garza could be one of the nicer sleepers for a breakout season in 2010.  
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Player Profile: Johnny Damon

Published by Keith Giordano in: Author-Keith Draft Prep Player Analysis Player Profile

It is not so hard to see why Johnny Damon is having a hard time finding the contract he wants this off-season.  On the surface, he looks like a player that teams would want.  Sure, he is a winner.  And yes, he did hit 24 home runs in 2009.  However, the secondary numbers point to a player in decline for some time now.  Since MLB GMs have their “people” that check out those secondary stats, most of the teams out there know this.  You should know about it too if you are thinking of drafting or (shudder) protecting Damon in your keeper league.  So what will Damon’s 2010 fantasy value be?  How much should you be willing to spend on him in your fantasy baseball auction?  If you are looking at Damon to be more than a 3rd outfielder, beware.
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