Date: 4 Dec 2009 Comments: 1

Published by Keith Giordano in: Author-Keith Draft Prep Player Analysis

How much David Wright will rebound in 2010 is a question that a large percentage of fantasy GMs are going to answer for themselves this off-season.  Last year at this time, Wright was coming off of a 30-30 campaign.  His value had never been higher as a fantasy commodity.  In 2009 drafts, he was an early first round pick, and big bucks had to be paid in auctions.  It is no secret what has happened since then.  Wright’s power numbers all but disappeared. The fact that his batting average was still great, and that he stole plenty of bases, kept the year from being a complete loss.  However, it was certainly not worth the price his owners paid for him in most cases.   The question of how much to pay, or how early to take Wright in 2010 drafts is a tricky one.  To answer it, we have to look at possible reason for this decline.

When asking where Wright’s power went, the most obvious answer when is that the Mets’ new ballpark is a much harder park in which to hit home runs.  That is certainly true.  There were 50 fewer home runs hit in Citi Field in 2009 than there were in Shea Stadium in 2008 (2008-180, 2009-130).  That is a drop of 27.8%.  However, that fact doesn’t really explain the entire decline.  As you can see, Wright’s home run total fell by 69.7% what it had been over the previous season.

David Wright
	2009	2008	2007
HR	10	33	30
RBI	72	124	107

I would agree that the ballpark played a roll his his power decline, but I do not think that it accounts for the 20+ home runs that he was missing.  We have to delve a little further though.  Since only half his games were played at this new ballpark, if that accounted for his outage, there should be a dramatic split in his home and road game home run totals.  Not so:

David Wright
	2009	2008	2007
HR-Home	5	21	16
HR-Road	5	12	14

While it is true that Wright’s history suggested a higher home game home run total, the drop in his power was also apparent in his road game home run total.  This decline in road game home runs cannot at all be explained by the new ballpark.  So what caused it?

Well, since you asked, I’ll give you my two cents.  To me, the Mets suffered injuries that robbed them of any chance to field a competitive team.  When you combine the injuries suffered, the amount of playing time lost due to those injuries, and the ballpark all together, you can start to see a clearer picture as to why David Wright had such an outlier of a season.  It does not take much effort to see the difference between the 2008 Mets and those from 2009.

In 2008 the Mets scored 799 runs, good enough to tie Philadelphia for second in the National League.  In 2009, they scored 671 ranking them 12th in the National League.  It is pretty easy to point to the injuries most of their best players suffered.  Carlos Delgado, Jose Reyes, and Carlos Beltran all missed huge amounts of playing time in 2009.  Delgado had hip surgery early in the season, and never even got his season started.  This was a huge blow to the Mets offense, especially after Delgado had a huge resurgence in 2008.   It seemed as though Jose Reyes was not healthy for a single day last season.  He managed to get log 147 ABs, and his torn hamstring turned another first round fantasy pick into a roster killer.  Carlos Beltran was a at least able to manage half a season (308 ABs).  His production over that time was certainly not at the level his owners would like, but when he played he was not awful.

When you add all of this up, the numbers are staggering.  The difference in the playing time alone that the core of the Met lineup actually was on the field is huge.  Take a look at the offense the Mets lost from those three players alone:

2008						2009
	AB	HR	R	RBI			AB	HR	R	RBI
Beltran	308	10	50	48		Beltran	606	27	116	112
Reyes	147	2	18	15		Reyes	688	16	113	68
Delgado	94	4	15	23		Delgado	598	38	96	115
Totals:	549	16	83	86		Totals:	1892	81	325	295

Look at that difference!  The Mets lost over 1300 ABs from three of their four best hitters.  A drop from 81 HRs to 16 HRs from those three players, as well as a difference of over 240 runs.  Sure, the Met front office replaced those players with a hodge-podge of whatever they could scrape together.  Yet Daniel Murphy, Anderson Hernandez, and whatever outfielders shared time can hardly compare to what production they were expecting to get from those positions.

So what protection did David Wright have in that lineup?  The only Met hitter (other than David Wright) that hit over .280 with over 350 ABs on the season was Luis Castillo (.302).  Not a single Met hitter had over 15 HRs on the season. Jeff Francouer had 76 RBIs on the season, but only 41 with the Mets.  After him, Wright led the Mets with 72, and then Daniel Murphy with 63.  There were simply no other bats in the lineup.  So not only did Wright not see a fastball for 2/3 of the season with no one protecting him, but with the lack of power around him he adjusted his swing to a small-ball style offense (hitting to the opposite field, looking for OBP and not the big knock).  Let’s get one thing straight.  David Wright is a gamer.  He wants to help his team win, even if it is a meaningless game.  He was the ONLY star left in the lineup.  He was willing to sacrifice his own stats to play to the style for which his team was best suited.

So we have covered the ballpark.  No question, that is a factor.  We have covered the protection in the lineup.  That was almost non-existent.  Finally, let’s look at the situation the Mets were in mentally.  They had collapsed in 2007 when they looked like a contender early.  The same thing happened to them in 2008 despite great offense.  When 2009 rolls around, not only do three of their best 4 hitters get hurt for most of the season, but let’s throw a Johan Santana injury in there late in the year.  How high do you think their team moral was?  Not high.

So what does this mean for us fantasy players?  Well, this isn’t a case of a player being old and declining as a natural curve in their career.  This is not a case of injury.  This is not a case of losing playing time.  Wright is the same player he was when he was taken in the first round of drafts for the 2009 season.  He was NEVER a huge power hitter, and that has to be recognized.  Sure, he hit the 30 HR level twice, but that doesn’t mean he is a lock to do it every season.  The fact is that he is a .300+ hitter, he has the speed to continue stealing bases, and I am a firm believer that his power will recover to hit in the 21-25 HR range (roughly the same percentage drop the ballpark had overall).  If the Met front office can just surround him with healthy bats (and replace Delgado with some power) he should recover nicely.

Remember this when bidding on him, or debating taking him in a draft: just because he had an off season, doesn’t mean you shouldn’t want him.  In every fantasy league NOT held on Long Island David Wright is going to come at a discount this season.  The question you have to ask yourself is:  is the discount big enough to justify taking him?  Personally, I think that his power will recover to the levels that made him a 5-tool player even without the 30+ home run potential.  The excellence his batting average, speed, and RBI potential offer make him worth the price.  Take the discount and run.