Date: 9 Dec 2009 Comments: 1

Published by Mike D in: Author-MikeD Draft Prep Player Analysis Player Profile

Season-ending, head-scratching is part of the fun of fantasy baseball. So many 2009 owners spent an arm and leg to make sure they had a top-notch shortstop. When all was said and done, how many asked themselves, “Why didn’t I get Jason Bartlett and spend my Hanley Ramirez-money elsewhere?” In case you didn’t notice, this Tampa SS put up a monster year, hitting .320 with a .389 OBP to go with 14 home runs, 30 stolen bases, 90 runs and 66 rbis — all career highs. So the question becomes, will Bartlett play well enough in 2010 to warrant the added attention he will surely garner on draft day?

Minors

It may seem odd to take a look a 30 year-old player’s minor league history, but there is one thing to note about Bartlett. He is a product of the Twins organization. The Twins minor league system has this amazing ability to turn out players who do what they’re supposed to do.  Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Scott Baker of recent note, Bartlett was also a member of that fraternity, and was always touted as a contact, line-drive hitter with better-than-average speed and a good glove. This is basically the skill set that has made him an everyday major leaguer.

2009

Those who have followed Bartlett’s slow (sometimes painfully slow), rise as a serious fantasy option at SS were properly enticed by what had always been a cheap source of stolen bases. When an owner didn’t get Option 1 or 2 at shortstop, Bartlett was a decent choice because of his ability to swipe a bag, even at the detriment of power and RBIs. The 2009 season has thrown that all out the window; Bartlett had a career year.

As 2009 unfolded, many believed Bartlett’s numbers would fade, especially his batting average and power. After a minor hamstring injury slowed him for a bit, the excuse was there for the slide to begin. He hit .247 in the month of July. August days are supposed to be the “dog days” where worn out players finally fall off, but after that slow July, Bartlett got it cranking again, hitting .356 in August. He slowed a little again to the finish line, but was out there everyday, right up to the end. He finished with a stolen base in 5 of his final 6 games of the season. There is no doubt. 2009 was a spectacular, wire-to-wire effort for Bartlett, but what should we be concerned about?

Warning Signs

There are quite a few things that flash “Stay Away!!!” when a player has a breakout season. For starers, there’s history. Past baseball drafts are strewn with the carcasses of teams built around players who were coming of off huge seasons. How many 2004 drafts had wild bidding on Esteban Loaiza after his 21 win/207 strikeout 2003? There was plenty of evidence that Loaiza wasn’t going to repeat that effort and only a little evidence that he might.

That, of course, is an extreme example, but it is more likely that Bartlett fits into the Adrain Beltre mode; a guy who was all upside until his 48 home run outburst in 2004, then became a disappointment as owners spent 48 home run dollars to get 19 home run production. With both Beltre and Bartlett, there is a history of stats leading up to the explosion. Owners need to realize that the price for Bartlett will probably be too high, but the question is, what will his stats for 2010 be?

Before we get to those projections, let’s go over the remaining Bartlett-specific issues in the numbers. As mentioned earlier, these were career numbers across the board and in some instances, complete outliers. Home runs jumps out as the category that seems least likely to repeat. Bartlett had a career total of 11 home runs entering the 2009 season, and this 29-year old, was able to more-than-double that total. It’s possible that he’s found a power stroke, but to pay, expecting 14 home runs every 500 at-bats(as it was in 2009) is silly. If you pay and get them, consider yourself lucky. The good news is that you aren’t(or shouldn’t be) drafting Bartlett for his power. If you got 9 instead of 14, your team shouldn’t be all that affected.

Further, the other numbers do seem a bit tough to repeat, but at least there’s some precedent. If you’re concerned about the batting average, don’t be. Just expect a .290 average when you’re putting your squad together and be happy with everything you get over that. A .290 batting average is more than attainable and actually leaves you plenty of upside. See, if you build expecting a .290 average and get a .305 batting average, you will be in good shape, as it will fill in for the failings of other players, where if you expect the repeat at .320, then get that .305, your team will actually be in the hole. Instead of that .305 helping, it hurts, so the lesson here is plan wisely. Don’t expect too much from certain players and it will force you to be realistic about the stats you need from the rest of your team.

Good News and Projections:

An interesting bit of news has been floating out there that potential Bartlett owners should keep an eye on. The Rays, flush with the excitement after their great 2008 run, went out and spent some money, primarily on Pat Burrell. Well, 2009 wasn’t so good, especially at the gate, and that put the Rays in a difficult situation. They may be forced to move a major salary, and the word is that Carl Crawford might be shipped out for prospects. If this happens, Jason Bartlett would become the primary option to bat leadoff, with some time in the two-hole.  It also means almost no time at the bottom of the order, which is where he often found himself in 2009. Remember, the blow out stats for Bartlett came in just 500 at-bats this season. Even if you believe that the home runs will decline, the raw number, with extra at-bats, may not look all that different. As it was, Bartlett was only hitting one home run every 36 at-bats. Let’s say that moves to one every 50 at-bats, but Bartlett ends up with 600 at-bats on the season; that’s still 12 home runs. As discussed earlier, you aren’t really getting Bartlett for the home runs, but that same math applies to all the other categories you care about. In 2009, Bartlett scored 90 times, while batting 7th, 8th or 9th in the order for a combined 65 games. If Bartlett is hitting 1st or 2nd for the entire season(or even most of the season), he will set another career high in runs scored in 2010, as he will be sure to be in triple-digits for the first time. The Crawford situation is one a swift fantasy owner will watch closely. If Crawford is dealt, the price for this SS might suddenly be a lot easier to swallow. If all that happens, get Bartlett for sure, but for now, I would work off the following stat projections:

2010 Prediction: 530 abs/.290 ba/9 HR/90 runs/65 rbi/27 sb