Date: 11 Dec 2009 Comments: 2 so far

Published by Keith Giordano in: Author-Keith Draft Prep Player Analysis

If you are looking to find power, a good place to start is HR.  Once you realize that every other fantasy baseball GM out there is looking at that too, then it is time to get a little more serious.  Looking at who lead the league in home runs is great, but unless you account for the number of ABs, it is a limiting stat.  The math is simple.  All you have to do is divide the number of AB a player had by the number of home runs they hit.  That sounds very easy until you look around on the Internet to find what you need.  Even if you find the free source of MLB stats that you can use, you then have to modify a spreadsheet and filter out all the irrelevant names.  Unless, of course, you do your research at Fantasy Baseball Addiction.  Where our addiction is your enabler.  Here is a quick list of players who’s AB/HR rate may interest you.  This is a good stat to find next year’s power hitter, or an undervalued player you already know.  It also can show you how the “power hitter” you thought you had is actually a player with only decent power, but a ton of ABs.  In order to have a decent sample size, there is a 100 AB minimum from 2009.  This is not a complete list, as I have filtered out names that you would expect to be among the top in this stat.  I did leave a few in there so you could have some comparison.  After the list, I highlight a few players that stuck out to me.

AB/HR

1. Randy Ruiz  (DH) TOR – 11.50
2. Albert Pujols  (1B) STL – 12.09
3. Russell Branyan  (1B) SEA – 13.90
4. Nelson Cruz  (OF) TEX – 14.00
5. Jonny Gomes  (OF) CIN – 14.05
6. Kyle Blanks  (OF) SD – 14.08
7. Garrett Jones  (1B) PIT – 14.95
8. Mark Teixeira  (1B) NYY – 15.62
9. Jay Bruce  (OF) CIN – 15.68
10. Jason Werth  (OF) PHI – 15.86
11. Ryan Rayburn  (OF) DET – 16.31
12. Rickie Weeks  (2B) MIL – 16.33
13. Kendry Morales  (1B) LAA – 16.65
14. Carlos Quentin  (OF) CWS – 16.71
15. Adam Lind  (OF) TOR – 16.77
16. Miguel Olivo  (C) KC – 16.96
17. Troy Tulowitzki  (SS) COL – 16.97
18. Ian Stewart  (3B) COL – 17.00
19. Josh Willingham  (OF) WAS – 17.79
20. Luke Scott  (OF) BAL – 17.96
21. Chris Iannetta (C) COL – 18.06
22. Dan Uggla  (2B) FLA – 18.19
23. Ian Kinsler  (2B) TEX – 18.26
24. Chase Utley  (2B) PHI – 18.42
25. Ryan Zimmerman  (3B) WAS – 18.48
26. Ben Zobrist (2B) TB – 18.56
27. Chris Davis  (1B) TEX – 18.62
28. Jake Fox (3B) OAK – 19.64
29. Landon Powell  (C) OAK – 20.00
30. Laynce Nix  (OF) CIN – 20.60
31. Juan Rivera  (OF) LAA – 21.16
32. Carlos Gonzalez (OF) COL – 21.38
33. Seth Smith (OF) COL – 22.33
34. Pablo Sandoval (3B) SF – 22.88
35. Matt Kemp (OF) LAD – 23.31
36. Will Venable  (OF) SD – 24.42
37. Robinson Cano  (2B) NYY – 25.48
38. Vladimir Guerrero  (DH) LAA – 25.53
39. Gordon Beckham  (2B) CWS – 27.00
40. Nick Markakis  (OF) BAL – 35.67

At the top of the list is Randy Ruiz.  This career minor leaguer has been bouncing around in the minors since 1999.  The poor guy has had 16 different teams over the years (and two different stints at two of the same places).  He swatted 10 HRs in 115 ABs with the big club in 2009.  He has shown decent power in the minors, but is already 31 years old so the odds are long he will contribute.  Check back later in the spring to see if he will actually play, but keep him on your radar.

Kyle Blanks is another name that jumps out at me from that list.  They love him in San Diego, and I expect him to play regularly in 2010.  He has power, but like every Padre, his upside is limited by the team around him and his home ballpark.  Hope that he has a so-so spring and you can grab him cheap.

It is good to see that Carlos Quentin is still high up on that list.  After a huge 2008, Quentin’s season was cut in half by injury.  His numbers were not the same as his breakout season, but they were similar enough to gamble on.  While his season totals were down, his AB/HR ratio only went from 13.33 to 16.71.  Hopefully, you can get him at a discount in your league and ride the rebound to 30+ home runs in 2010.

Another name you should pick out of this list is Jake Fox.  He is the likely starter at third base in Oakland, and showed good power in limited action in 2009.  His minor league numbers make this believable, but it looks like he won’t be a high average type hitter.  Even in the minors his average was mediocre and his OBP was on the low side.

There are always one or two of those second half gems out there.  Players that didn’t really get any playing time until fairly late in the season, but wound up being productive regulars.  This is exactly what you should be looking for.  Players that have a good chance to produce above their reputation or price, but that came along late enough that most of your competition didn’t notice them last year.  Face it, in most leagues there are about half the teams that stop paying attention when they think they are out of it.  Garrett Jones is one of these players.  Because of that, you may be able to sneak this guy by cheap and late if you are in a deep league and it looks as though he will start.  Don’t expect a high average, but 20 HRs is obviously possible.

Check out the previous edition of Stats You Need to Know