Date: 15 Dec 2009 Comments: 0

Published by Mike D in: Author-MikeD Draft Prep Player Analysis Player Profile

Troy Tulowitzki has gone from “Superstar shortstop-to be,” to “King of the slow start,” to “Who the heck cares about the slow start?” in two quick years. One season removed from his turbulent 2008 campaign, Tulo broke out. He played in over 150 games, which may have been the most important news considering the serious injury he suffered in 2008, but it goes beyond that. Tulo’s power really showed up with a career-high 32 home runs, an eight home run jump over his previous best of 24 long balls in 2007. Even better was the spike in speed. Troy’s 20 stolen bases nearly tripled his previous-best 7 swipes in 2007. Is maintaining that jump a realistic request from fantasy owners? Will 2010’s overall numbers be worth the price? These are the questions potential Tulowitzki investors need to ask.

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The “Slow Start” Syndrome

What better place to start than where Tulowitzki owners have found themselves in April and May for the last two seasons; wondering if they’d made a mistake. There’s no doubt that Tulo is getting a rep for starting slow and finishing strong, which is probably easier to deal with than the reverse problem of starting strong and stumbling to the finish, an affliction know as Dan Haren-itis. But what, if any, are the pitfalls of such a player?

Let’s start by saying that this label would go away with a solid, wire-to-wire campaign. Remember, Tulowitzki was just 24 years old this season, so there’s plenty of time to make this reputation evaporate. However, a responsible fantasy owner needs to calculate the “slump’s” negative value, until on-the-field performance shows it’s no longer necessary. Since Tulo plays virtually every day, the only area this slump truly affects is his trade value.

Guys like Dan Haren and Mike Lowell who have had the reputation for wearing down are tough to trade because people are concerned with what they’ll be locked into after their fantasy league’s trade deadline. On the other hand, guys like Tulowitzki present a different issue. Owners know they’re supposed to break out in the second half, but it’s tough to pull the trigger in those early months when the player in question is below the Mendoza Line. The point here is this. To get the full value of what you’ll have to pay for Tulowitzki this season, a fantasy owner should be committed to riding it for the entire season. Of course, if an opportunity arises, there’s always room to readjust, but this premise is something owners need to understand about Troy’s value right now.

Here’s the bright side. He might do what Robinson Cano did this season. Cano has been a disappointment for fantasy owners, always teasing them with .320 batting average ability, but slow starts have made more than a few owners grey. Then poof; 2009. Cano seized on the potential that was there and rocked it. Tulowitzki had 32 home runs, with over 90 runs and RBIs apiece in the 2009 season that included one of these slow starts. Just imagine what he would do if he hit the ground running in 2010.

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Defense

This may seem like a sudden topic shift, but once in a while a player’s defense is either so good or so bad, that they’re offensive output is affected. If a player has a bad habit of booting balls, he’ll eventually lose those precious at-bats. Likewise, a player who makes himself indispensable in the field, especially at one of the defensive-oriented positions of C, 2B, SS or CF is sure to be in lineup daily. Even with the slow start, Tulowitzki’s at-bats were never in doubt because Troy’s defense is superb, highlighted by a rocket-firing arm.

There is a certain value afforded the owner of a player who will likely reach 600 at-bats. That owner can accept the projected offensive stats with more assurance, since a key component to calculating those numbers(at bats) is not only not a variable, but is pinned at maximum output. Dustin Pedroia is another solid defensive middle infielder who delivers very reliable stats for his owners, in large part because of his 600-or-so bites at the apple each season.

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2010 Projections:

Tulowitzki is coming off that breakout season we all want our players to have, but what now? Once is a blip; two is a trend. If he can come close to repeating his 2009 season next year, then he has the opportunity to move up in value at the relatively thin shortstop position. Many players get here, but only some follow through.

The signs point to a near-repeat of last season’s numbers. For one, the slow start issue can be seen as an area for improvement; a place where solid play could shift the numbers upward.

2009 was not a statistical best in runs or RBIs, but came up just 10 runs and RBIs combined short of 2007’s totals, a year in which Tulowitzki had more than 60 extra at-bats to work with. This makes it clear to me. With the at-bats in hand, and Tulowitzki coming into his own, 2010 will be a very fun year for owners of this Rockies shortstop; maybe more fun at the end than the beginning, but fun nonetheless.

So is it worth paying the price this year? Accept that you he needs to be part your entire 2010 plan; not trade bait. Accept that he’s like a locomotive that takes a while to get going and don’t get frustrated when he’s driving you nuts. Remember. You invested for the entire season package. If you can accept these base premises about your 2010 investment in Troy Tulowitzki, then you should go get him.

And here’s the bonus for keeper league owners. If he does have that wire-to-wire run, the resultant stats will be off the wall and the label of “slow starter” will be replaced by that of a cornerstone player.

Expect the slump. Root for the quick start. And in the meantime, punch these stats into your model:

2010 Projections: 605 at-bats/.289 ba/31 HR/105 runs/101 rbis/16 sb