Date: 4 Jan 2010 Comments: 0

Published by Keith Giordano in: Author-Keith Draft Prep Player Analysis Positional Tier

Dividing fantasy baseball players up into tiers is a useful way to gauge relative value.  If you miss out on a player you like, tiers can show you other options at the position that will help your team with similar levels of production.  If you can find an option in the same tier that turns out to be cheaper in your auction, or still on the board late in your fantasy draft, you can fill that spot with a bargain.  While the rankings that you will find on websites and in fantasy baseball magazines are good guidelines, tiers can show you where the major drop-off points are between groups of players.

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Catchers

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First Tier:  Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez, Brian McCann

Most people are going to look at this first tier and wonder why Joe Mauer is not all by himself.  The reason that he isn’t is that his exceptional 2009 was only the first time he has given fantasy owners the power that they have been waiting on for years.  I have said it before, and I am sure I will say it again (even during this article): Predictability is one of the chief factors to use when picking players to target in your fantasy draft or auction.  To be placed in a top tier by oneself, not only does the player have to have excellence in production, but a relative certainty that this production will continue for at least another season.  No one is questioning Mauer’s batting average, but in 2009 he more than doubled his career high in HR, and broke 85 RBI for the first time in his career.  Without the track record for hitting over 20 home runs per season, I hesitate to recommend paying for Mauer as though he is the clear favorite at the position.  Victor Martinez also had an excellent season in 2009, and also has hit over 20 HR multiple times (as well as recorded over 85 RBI four times).  So you tell me…… are you SURE that Mauer is going to have a better 2010 season than Martinez?  I am not, so I cannot recommend that you pay significantly more for Mauer.

Finally, we come to Brian McCann.  Much like Mauer before 2009, McCann seems to still be developing.  While his power is consistent with about 20 or more HR in all but one season of his career, he does not put up the same uber-batting average Mauer does, nor the RBI total typical of Martinez.  It is actually pretty strange.  McCann’s production year-to-year remains almost identical to his first full season.  It is good fantasy production for a catcher, but it seems like he should be able to improve on these numbers as he matures and gains experience.

Second Tier:  Jorge Posada, Matt Wieters, Miguel Montero, Russell Martin

Everyone in this second tier has the ability to put up numbers worthy of the first tier.  However, there is a reason that each player has not been placed in that upper echelon.  What is it about Dodger catchers?  The last two full-time Dodger catchers both came out of the gate strong.  Remember Paul LoDuca’s rookie season?  It was a monster (25 HR, 90 RBI, .320 BA).  Then, a not-so-gradual fade away into fantasy obscurity.  Now it seems a similar (yet not as abrupt) fade is happening to Russell Martin.  His HR, RBI, SB, and BA have all dropped for two straight seasons after his excellent 2007.  Of course, it is completely possible that he can improve on his production, but the decline he has started keeps him out of the top tier, and should reduce his price at auction to match.  Jorge Posada is getting old.  There is no denying it, and keep in mind that he is THE MAN to any and all Yankee fans in the world.  Yet with a bad shoulder at 38 years old, it is only a matter of time before the decline in his fantasy production makes the price his name commands too high to pay.

Matt Wieters is surely the name that the “upside seekers” in your league are going to target.  His rookie year has to be seen as a success, and more is likely to come.  That is, unless his career path goes the same as Brian McCann, who as we covered, has not made much improvement in the fantasy categories since his first full season.  Personally, I would rather target Miguel Montero.  His name does not have as much hype surrounding it, and his upside is similar.  Chris Snyder was able to hold him off for a season or so, but once Montero was given a full-time role, the DBacks were not going to take it away.  With 16 home runs and a .294 batting average in his first full-time gig, his numbers could easily be better than Wieters in 2010.  At the time of this article, Bengie Molina had not yet signed with a team.  He is old, he is slow, but has shown good power over the seasons.  His 2008 season was his best season, putting up 95 RBI and a .295 batting average.  This was while he was batting cleanup for the Giants, a position in the batting order he is not likely to see again in his career.  In 2009 his power was at a career high, but his batting average dropped back closer to his career average.

Third Tier:  Bengie Molina, Ryan Doumit, A.J. Pierzynski, Mike Napoli, Geovany Soto, Chris Iannetta

I like a couple of the names in this tier, and if you can get them later or cheaper than the names above, they are completely worth the risk.  Ryan Doumit was among the higher-priced catchers in 2009 auctions.  Coming off of a relatively healthy 2008 in which he put up a .318 batting average, those that had seen the potential in his bat were expecting even more.  His 2009 season was not as healthy, yet his 10 HR in only 280 ABs was still worthy of note.  Since the power and ABs went down, you can expect his price to do the same.  Sit back, wait, and when others are pointing to the 10 HR as a reason to not pay the extra bid money, you can realize that his AB/HR ratio actually improved, and his BB/K ratio was almost identical to his 2008 season.  While his OBP dropped, the difference between his 2008 and 2009 BABIP can account for much of this (BABIP: 2008 – .338, 2009 – .271).  I like his upside and his expected 2010 price.  I also like A.J. Pierzynski.  While not the most spectacular option behind the dish, his predictable production makes up for his lack of upside.  We pretty much know what A.J. will do, and he will not hurt your team (or your bid money) by drafting him.  In his last 4 seasons he has only one with a batting average under .281, and he hit between 13 and 16 HR per season.  He does play in a very homer friendly ballpark, so a power spike is possible, but it is not needed to justify paying an extra dollar or two for his services.

On the surface, Mike Napoli looks like he should be in the second tier.  There is no questioning that the guy has power to spare.  With 20 HR for two straight seasons (both seasons with under 400 AB) there is upside here if he can ever have a truly full season.  So health is a primary concern.  Also, one has to look at the subtle decline in his secondary numbers from 2008 to 2009.  His SLG and OBP both dropped as well as his BB/K rate.  This all happened while his BABIP went UP slightly over that time.  He could be the best power hitting catcher in the league, or he could spend half the season on the D.L. and hit .250.  For the price he will command, I would rather pay less for more certain production.

Geovany Soto and Chris Iannetta both have a similar situation.  They both had great 2008 seasons, followed by a much worse 2009.  While Iannetta was touted coming into the bigs, his great season was preceded by struggle, and now after his struggles in 2009 he also has to contend with Miguel Olivo on the roster.  Olivo will eat into his playing time, and has the power to make that split damaging to Iannetta’s value.  Soto changed his approach at the plate in 2007 and his numbers exploded.  With the starting job wrapped up in 2008, the excellence continued.  However, in 2009 his numbers sank back closer to his previous levels, and his BA dropped all the way to .218.  A rebound to a middle-ground is likely, but don’t pay as though 2009 never happened.

Fourth Tier:  Kurt Suzuki, Yadier Molina, Kelly Shoppach, John Baker, Buster Posey, Ramon Hernandez, Ivan Rodriguez, Miguel Olivo

We are now into the group of catchers where they are either unproven or have limited upside.  Of this group, Miguel Olivo is the best power option, and that power could increase in Colorado, especially if he steals significant playing time from Iannetta.  His batting average may not be high enough to help your team, but if the Colorado effect can raise it up just a bit, he will be more than serviceable for your fantasy roster.  Another name that is sure to stand out on this list is Kurt Suzuki.  Having ranked 4th among catchers in RBI for 2009, there will be those that expect more to come.  I do not.  If you would like a detailed reason as to why, read about him in my Overrated Fantasy Hitters article.  I expected a bit of a resurgence from Ramon Hernandez in 2009, as he moved to the home run friendly ballpark in Cincinnati.  Obviously, I was wrong.  He was not playing all that well even before the injury which robbed him of most of the season.  He could still have an upswing, as his 2009 numbers were so bad it is easy to expect more.  However, at 34 years old, we have most likely seen his best.

Kelly Shoppach was trapped for years behind Victor Martinez.  Apparently the Indians did not think that he was a long term starter, as they let him go even after Martinez left town.  Now with a chance to play regularly, Shoppach will go from draft afterthought to overpriced, unproven commodity.  He has shown decent power in his history, but with a season high batting average of .261 (which dropped to .214 in 2009) his upside is limited.  Until he figures out how to hit right-handed pitching at a better rate, he is destined to lose playing time to another option.  John Baker was a popular sleeper in 2009.  Hitting .299 in 2008, fantasy GMs were expecting another step forward in 2009.  Well, he didn’t take a step forward, but he didn’t take much of a step back either.  His power was almost the same as in 2008, and his batting average (while down from 2008) was still at an acceptable level.  I don’t like drafting moderate power options in that ballpark, but at least Baker will not hurt you in the batting average category.  Yadier Molina is very similar to Baker.  Decent batting average, little power, low price.

Buster Posey is an upside pick, but that upside is limited to how soon the Giants let him catch for the big club.  He has power and can definitely hit for average.  If he can make the jump sooner rather than later, he should be able to help fantasy rosters.  Stash him away late if you have the roster space.

The Rest:  Rod Barajas, Carlos Ruiz, Gerald Laird, Rob Johnson, Carlos Santana, Greg Zaun, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Alex Avila, Jason Kendall, Jesus Flores, Nick Hundley

Once we get this far down the list at catcher, we are talking about spending just a dollar or two to get them.  With only upside to offer, there is little proven production that can be pointed to among this group.  Jesus Flores was supposed to be the starter in Washington before they signed Ivan Rodriguez.  He has shown that he can hit a little, and that his power is better than average for a catcher.  However, without a starting gig, how much he can help your team is in question.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia is also another player that was supposed to be a starter by now, but has stalled in his development.  He also has Taylor Teagarden competing for playing time, which further cuts into the likelihood that he will be a good option behind the plate.

Bottom line.  If you have gone so long without drafting a catcher that this is the list to chose from, keeping waiting and take a player with upside at another position if you can.