Date: 6 Jan 2010 Comments: 0

Published by Keith Giordano in: Author-Keith Draft Prep Player Analysis Positional Tier

First base is known for being among the deepest positions in fantasy baseball.  It is a nice place to find a stud that will hit you 40 HR and drive in over 100 runs.  However, it is also a great place to find a younger, low-profile slugger.  If you scout it right, you end up with this year’s Kendry Morales for much cheaper.

First Base

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Top Tier : Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, Mark Teixeira

It would be very easy to put Albert Pujols in this tier by himself.  After all, in 99% of fantasy baseball rankings in the world, Pujols will be the overall most valuable player.  There is no need to say anything more than that about the best fantasy commodity in baseball.  Miguel Cabrera is a huge season waiting to happen.  This kid actually reminds me a great deal of Pujols.  He broke into the league at a young age and started producing from day one.  He also has never had what you can call a “bad” season.  He hits for power, drives in runs, and his batting average is awesome.  The only thing Pujols offers that he does not is speed.  Cabrera is that magic age of 27 years old this season.  The other three choices are also fine additions to your team that will provide the offensive power and run production that you can build your team around.

Ryan Howard’s batting average is usually not as good as the other options in the first tier, but his RBI total year to year is awesome.  Prince Fielder has as much power as any of these names, but his final line varies a bit from season to season (HR TOTALS:  2007 – 50, 2008 – 36, 2009 – 46).  If you draft him in a season where he puts it all together, you get one of the best fantasy players in the game.  Finally, we come to Mark Teixeira.  He has power (though has not broken the 40 HR mark in several seasons) and his batting average is consistently high.  If he can just start hitting during April like he does later in the season, he could be a top 10 player (he is a notoriously slow starter).

Second Tier : Justin Morneau, Adrian Gonzalez, Joey Votto, Kevin Youkilis, Kendry Morales, Adam Dunn, Derrek Lee

These options at first base are all quality that you can draft for a cheaper price, but can put up production that help your team greatly.  All, however, have some flaw that keep them out of that top tier.  The name on this list that people are most often going to point to as belonging in the top tier is Adrian Gonzalez.  Coming off of his first 40 HR season, his owners love his ability.  I do too.  What keeps him out of the top tier is two-fold.  Firstly, his batting average and RBI total from year to year is not in the upper echelon of the position.  He has not had a BA over .282 in the last three seasons, and in two of those three seasons his RBI total was under 101.  Also, his ballpark and supporting cast are working against him repeating the power he showed, and his RBI total improving much.  He is quality, but since his price in your auction is likely to be as high as the previous tier, you should let him pass your team by.

Justin Morneau is another name that often is ranked with the top names at first base.  Sure, he puts together a good season now and again, but his final stat line is very different from season to season.  One year he will hit .271, then the next year he will hit .300.  One year he will hit 31 HR, the next he will hit 23.  Even his RBI total varies greatly, ranging from 100 to 129 over the last three seasons.  This unpredictability keeps him in the second tier.  Joey Votto is one of the up-and-comers at first base.  He hit everything that moved in the first half of 2009, with a .351 batting average.  Even in the second half when he cooled off to only .300, his power levels remained just as high as in the first half.  If he can maintain that batting average and power levels (and stay on the field for 550 ABs) he could join the upper level as soon as 2011.

Everyone knows that Adam Dunn has great power, and usually has a bad batting average.  It is that batting average that keeps him in the second tier year after year.  I will not raise him up to the top level because he brought that average up to .267 last season.  Derrek Lee is old, and his resurgent 2009 is no reason to pay the price as though he was back in his prime.  Lee, to me, is one of those players that GMs are going to massively overpay for in 2010 fantasy drafts and auctions.  See my Overrated Fantasy Hitters article for details.  Kendry Morales was a great pickup last season, but I would like to see him repeat those numbers (and boost that runs total) before he is ranked any higher.  I would also like to see him hit better while batting right-handed.  There is a good argument to put him in the third tier instead of the second.

Third Tier : Pablo Sandoval, Victor Martinez, Lance Berkman, Carlos Pena, Billy Butler

There is good upside in this tier.  Both Pablo Sandoval and Billy Butler could take steps forward in 2010 which would seriously upgrade their ranking.  Sandoval swings at everything he sees, but keeps that batting average high.  Butler’s surrounding cast limits his run production upside, and he has yet to show more than 20-something HR power.  He is, however, country strong and a 30 HR season is possible.  Victor Martinez will go for too much bid money or too high a draft pick to use at first base.  Someone will use him at catcher, where is is indeed worth much more.  Carlos Pena sure has power, but that batting average will cost your team some points.  Be careful paying to much for just the HR category.  Poor Big Puma.  Lance Berkman has been very inconsistent over the seasons, and the wheels just completely came off the bus is 2009.  With his lowest RBI and HR total since 2005, Berkman’s price is sure to be reduced in 2010.  I would love to grab him at this reduced price, since he has recovered from similarly poor seasons in his past with monster years the next.

Fourth Tier : James Loney, Jorge Cantu, Paul Konerko, Jose Lopez, Adam LaRoche, Martin Prado, Todd Helton, Garrett Jones, Nick Johnson, Aubrey Huff, Michael Cuddyer,Chris Davis

Look at all this quality talent still around after the “top” 17 options are off the board.  There are really two fantasy baseball strategies for drafting first basemen.  You can use an early draft pick or lots of bid money on a top slugger that will put up huge numbers.  Or you can wait many rounds and pay much less for a player that will produce good-but-not-great numbers, while drafting better players at thiner positions.  If you chose the second strategy, make sure that you get a first baseman that is no lower than this tier.  There are plenty of guys here that will hit you 20ish home runs with a decent batting average and 90ish RBI.  Are they superstars?  No.  However, if you draft someone with that early pick (or large bid) at a thin position (like 2B) that is a superstar and combine their numbers with one of these mediocre 1B options, you can break even with a team that uses the inverse strategy.  Let’s hit the highlights of this tier.

James Loney is consistent, but has failed to take a significant step forward since establishing a baseline of production.  Jorge Cantu has defied the odds to make a nice comeback after two down seasons.  At this point, it appears as though his numbers are reliable though not spectacular.  Garrett Jones is sure to top many fantasy baseball sleeper lists for the 2010.  After hitting 21 home runs in only 314 ABs, plenty of knowledgeable GMs are going to be willing to wait on a first baseman counting on drafting Jones later.

Michael Cuddyer is sure to draw skepticism from fantasy GMs this season.  However, this kid was highly touted when coming into the big leagues, and his numbers were consistent in a month-to-month breakdown of 2009.  While 34 home runs may be a bit much to expect again from Cuddyer in 2010, he is a solid player that can help your team if you grab him late.  Martin Prado is a lower-profile sleeper that has some upside.  Don’t wait too long though, because he does qualify at thiner positions than first base and could be taken at second or third base if you sleep on him.  Do I have to tell you that Nick Johnson is an injury risk?  Jose Lopez was one of only two Mariners that hit more than 20 home runs in 2009.  Like Prado, Lopez can be taken at 2B as well.  Chris Davis was last year’s hot pickup that was overpaid for in leagues everywhere.  Don’t let that be you again this year.  Power potential is great, but a certain bad batting average is awful.  Until he proves he can stick around in the show, contain your excitement (and your bid).

The Rest : Garrett Atkins, Carlos Delgado, Mark DeRosa (10), Mark Teahen (11), Ty Wigginton, Nick Swisher, Hank Blalock, Luke Scott, Russell Branyan, Mike Jacobs, Ryan Garko, Daniel Murphy, Lyle Overbay, Jeff Clement

While there is still upside present in this final tier, you are looking at some longer odds for a breakthrough power season.  In fact, when you get this low in the tiers playing time could start to be an issue.  I am personally not a Chris Davis fan.  There is no questioning that the kid has power, but that walk rate is terrible and the strikeouts come in bunches.  The quickest way for a touted hitter to turn into a fantasy bust is for him to strike out a ton and walk very little.  Garrett Atkins could rebound after a terrible 2009, but how often does a player get better after leaving Colorado?  Carlos Delgado is still looking for a job at the time of this posting, and his age and poor 2009 are working against his fantasy value.  Russell Branyan looked like a resurgence was coming in 2009, but injury derailed his attempt.  I would not bet on such quality production happening again.  Jeff Clement has been jerked around for many seasons, and that could still happen in the crowded first base picture on the Pirates.  Mark DeRosa’s breakout came fairly late in his career.  In that pitcher’s ballpark surrounded by a mediocre cast I doubt his numbers will be as good as in his recent past.