Date: 6 Jan 2010 Comments: 0

Published by Keith Giordano in: Author-Keith Draft Prep Player Analysis Positional Tier

Second base seems to be the thinest position for the 2010 season.  As someone who has no players to protect at second base in one of my keeper leagues, it is a little scary to look at the options that are going to be available.  One of the most complex equations that fantasy GMs have to do for themselves each season, is to judge how much extra value to assign to which positions to account for position scarcity.  I will be assigning second base a good amount of extra value this season.  The drop of in production comes early on the list, and becomes drastic after the second tier.

Second Base

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Top Tier:  Chase Utley, Ian Kinsler, Brian Roberts

It is clear that Chase Utley is great across the board.  He offers consistent production in all categories and will be taken fairly early in the first round of snake drafts.  Ian Kinsler critics will point to his injury history and poor batting average and say he is overrated.  I will point to a kid who: went 30-30 in his 4th season, has seen his RBI total grow in every year, showed he could hit for average in 2008 (.313), and is just a monster fantasy season waiting to happen.  I would happily sacrifice some of those home runs for a .300 batting average, since the kid clearly tries to hit home runs too often.  However, 30-30 from a second baseman is huge for a fantasy team and should not be passed by without some serious consideration.  When people say that his batting average sucked, point to his .245 BABIP in 2009.  Bad luck played a part in his .253 BA in 2009.

I moved Brian Roberts back and forth from the first tier to the second a few times.  While I would take either of the other players in the top tier before him, I would take him before any of the players in the second tier.  He muscled up in 2009 (hopefully without any “help” this time) and hit 16 HRs, and drove in a career high 79 runs.  While his stolen base total has dropped from 50 in 2007, to 40 in 2008, to 30 in 2009, a 16-30 season with 100 runs and a good batting average is quality production from a second baseman.  I would expect that power to decline a bit in 2010, but if those SBs tick back up you will still get quality.  He is just so dependable, that adds some value in my eyes.

Second Base: Dustin Pedroia, Aaron Hill, Robinson Cano, Brandon Phillips, Ben Zobrist, Dan Uggla

Still very nice options are available to you in the second tier, however it would be tough for me to pass up on a great first baseman late in the first round for one of these options.  Look at it this way:  I would pass up on Mark Teixeira if it meant landing Utley or maybe even Kinsler because second base is so thin.  I would not pass up Tex for Hill or Pedrioa even despite the position scarcity factor.  Would you?

Dustin Pedroia can hit.  That batting average is for real and you can expect it to continue.  However the lack of power development makes me think that he will not take the step forward to join the upper tier.  While I have no doubt that somewhere along the way he will have a career year, it does not look like he is going to make a run at the 30-30 club on a regular basis.  Especially disturbing was that his stolen base percentage dropped drastically last year.  In 2008 he stole 20 bases and was caught once.  In 2009 he stole 20 bases and was caught 8 times.  They may not let him run as much if he starts making outs on the base-paths again in 2010.  If that happens, then he is just a 20ish home run hitter with a good BA.  Wow, what to say about Aaron Hill?  The power is alluring.  Yet paying for it is a huge gamble.  It is going to cost a huge amount of bid money or a fairly early pick to land Hill, and his HR total in 2009 looks like an outlier of a season.  If you want a complete analysis (which you should if you are considering keeping or drafting him), see my Overrated Fantasy Hitters article.

Robinson Cano saw his power spike in 2009, which was a welcome step forward from those GMs that have been waiting.  His batting average made a complete recovery, and Cano scored over 100 runs for the first time in his career.  However, Cano’s track record suggests that paying as if another increase in power is coming would be a waste of bid money.  In the first four seasons of his career, Cano failed to break the 20 HR mark.  In 2009, Cano hit twice as many home runs in the new Yankee Stadium than during 2008 in the old stadium.  With the change in the ballpark, he could hold onto that gain, but expecting more power to develop may be asking too much.  If you can get Cano on the cheap side, he is a great commodity.  I would like to see him hit around 25 home runs again before I am willing to pay the price he will command in 2010 fantasy auctions and drafts.

I like Ben Zobrist.  I believe that his production will continue, and his breakout was so unlikely that your competition may hesitate to take him as early as his production warrants.  For a complete breakdown on why I feel this way, check out Fantasy Baseball Addiction’s Ben Zobrist Player Profile.  It is unlike me to be drawn to such an unproven player, but I am. Brandon Phillips is underrated in fantasy circles.  All he has done is go 20-20 or better for three straight seasons.  Sure, his batting average is not awesome, but that is a small complaint compared to the production he offers in the other categories.  Your fellow GMs may not notice this, but Phillips also drove in 98 runs in 2009.  Dan Uggla is the Adam Dunn of second base.  While Dunn offers 40 HR power and a bad batting average at the deeper positions of OF or 1B, Uggla offers 30 HR power with a bad batting average at the thiner second base.  There is value here, and he could always put up a good batting average season one of these years.

Third Tier:  Jose Lopez, Placido Polanco, Gordon Beckham, Ian Stewart, Martin Prado, Orlando Hudson, Rickie Weeks, Casey McGehee (22), Kaz Matsui, Chris Getz, Luis Castillo, Alberto Callaspo, Asdrubal Cabrera (28)

After reading the names in the third tier, you can probably see why second base is such a thin position in 2010.  Sure, there are a few that have upside.  Yet any single one of them could wind up a disappointment for fantasy owners.  The most predictable of the group are Jose Lopez and Placido Polanco.  Lopez has increased his home run output in four straight seasons, and set a career high in HR and RBI in 2009.  He does not possess the OBP that could indicate more is to come, but he has managed to keep his batting average at respectable levels in 3 of the last 4 seasons.  Polanco is another fairly safe bet.  Yet, it is a “safe” bet because the lack of upside and mediocre numbers safe players will put up make GMs look for other options that could wind up giving them more.  While he set a new career high for RBI in 2009, that career high is only 72.  That is the downside of the safe choice.  So it is up to you to scout the other options this late, and decide if the risk of them completely sucking (let’s say like Alexi Casilla or Emmanuel Burriss did in 2009) is worth passing up nice power from Lopez or 550 ABs of a good batting average from Polanco.

I am going to be keeping an eye on Martin Prado this spring.  He was impressive enough in 2009 to not only take the job in Atlanta away from Kelly Johnson, but he made Johnson completely expendable in the Braves’ eyes.  Prado showed a good eye at the plate and the power in his bat showed up.  He gets caught stealing too often to be a true speed asset, but he could be a nice late gem nonetheless.  Prado will certainly be a lot cheaper than Gordon Beckham.  Beckham gave us a taste of what he could do in 2009, and the signs are bright.  Unfortunately, his numbers were good enough that he is now on every radar screen.  He put up 14 HR and 7 SBs in a short season (378 ABs).  Makes me think to this time in the last off-season when another youngster who had very good numbers in 2008 was going for large bids and early picks in drafts.  Alexei Ramirez.  How did that work out?  That is exactly the argument for taking one of the safe and cheaper bets.  Everyone was on the Ramirez bandwagon looking for the next big thing at a thin position, and paid for him.  They just don’t always pan out.  Keep your bidding for Gordon in check.  If you can get Casey McGehee for cheaper (which is almost assured) grab him instead.  The kid showed good pop, and is much more likely to slip under your competition’s radar at your draft or auction.

Obviously, Rickie Weeks and Kaz Matsui are the two largest injury risks in the group.  Both have the upside to perform well if healthy and playing like they have shown they can.  How many ABs they can actually give you is a real concern.  Luis Castillo is just old.  His resurgent season in 2009 was great for owners who gambled on him, but don’t expect another season like that.  People are very high on Asdrubal Cabrera this season.  If you can still get him after half this tier is gone, that isn’t so bad, but there is nothing that suggests that a breakout season is coming.  His OBP is creaping up, which is good since it will keep him in the lineup.  However, I doubt the power will grow much, and the speed is mediocre.  Allberto Callaspo took a large step up in the power department while maintaining his usual nice batting average.  He should continue to hit well, but the power should be viewed with skepticism.  Ian Stewart has power.  He also has a poor batting average.  In the minors, he struck out less than twice as much as he walked.  In the bigs last season he struck out closer to three times as much as he walked.  Trouble.  Chris Getz showed decent plate discipline and that he could steal a base.  Unfortunately he will have to fight for playing time with Callaspo.

Fourth Tier: Felipe Lopez, Clint Barmes, Howie Kendrick, Skip Schumaker, Jeff Baker, Kelly Johnson, Freddy Sanchez, Scott Sizemore, Mark Ellis, Willy Aybar, Ronnie Belliard, Akinori Iwamura, Eugenio Velez, Maicer Izturis, Adam Kennedy, Julio Lugo, Willie Harris, Brendan Harris, Juan Uribe

Full of so-so production, part-time players, and little upside, the fourth tier is just ugly.  Jeff Baker may have some upside, since his power in the minors was better than what he showed in 2009, and his batting average was more than respectable.  Skip Schumaker can hit .300 for you, but it is a pretty empty line other than that.  Eugenio Velez will have playing time issues, but can still steal enough bases to be useful.  The fact that Felipe Lopez only put up numbers close to those of Placido Polanco, and that was a RESURGENCE should be a warning sign.  It should not be a sign you should equate them as the same value.  Scott Sizemore is a name that could slip by other GMs, but he should start the season with a full time job.  Nothing special, but he should play.