Date: 8 Jan 2010 Comments: 4 so far

Published by Keith Giordano in: Author-Keith Draft Prep Player Analysis Player Profile

Every season there are players that step forward to have huge years, seemingly out of nowhere.  When we form our game-plan in the pre-season, we have to decide whether or not we believe that they can produce similar results again.  Just ask those people who paid a ton in 2009 for Ryan Ludwick or Carlos Quentin how it feels to be wrong about their guys.  Last season was no different in this regard.  Plenty of players that were unowned at the end of most fantasy auctions or drafts turned out to be valuable fantasy commodities for those that who were quick and smart enough to grab them.  Enter, Ben Zobrist.  He had a great season.  With 27 HR, 17 SB, and 91 RBI while hitting a robust .297, he is sure to get a lot of attention in fantasy debates this spring.  When you factor in that he qualifies in the outfield, second base, and shortstop in some leagues (13 games), those are some numbers that believers will pay a lot for, or reach for in drafts.  So now there are two questions to answer: 1) How much do you believe Zobrist will repeat those numbers?  and 2) What are you willing to pay for him if you believe he will?

Minors

Zobrist spent parts of five seasons in the minor leagues.  He was by no means a big power hitter during those years, but at 6′-3″, it is not surprising that he has developed power.  Zobrist was also not a huge speed threat.  While his success rate in the minors was not terrible, he does not have blazing speed (58 SB, 20 CS).  Zobrist was, however,  a good OBP player.  In every season, at every level (barring a 14 AB stint in 2008) Zobrist had an OBP of .400 or greater, and a batting average of over .300 in all but one season.  Walking more that striking out, his plate discipline cannot be ignored.

2009

On and off of the big club for the last several seasons, Zobrist struggled early.  Batting average was an issue, though in 2008 he took a step forward.  Especially at the end of 2008, Zobrist show flashes of what he was able to do.  His batting average came up, his OBP rose, and his power showed up for the first time at the major league level (12 HR in 198 ABs).  Zobrist credits this marked improvement to help from swing mechanic, Jaime Cevallos, and hitting coach Dan Heefner.  They broke his swing down, and rebuilt it.  They convinced him that he did not have to sacrifice power for average, and the results are hard to argue with.

When the opportunity to play regularly early in 2009 thanks to an injury to Akinori Iwamura, Zobrist made the most of it.  After an April in which Zobrist hit 4 HR and kept his batting average over .280, he received almost twice as many ABs in May.  Zobrist responded by hitting .313 with an OBP of .439 for the month.  Once he started, Zobrist really did not stop.  From that point on, he did not have a month with an OBP under .382, and had two more months over .400.  Even when his average stumbled one month (August – .242), he maintained a .383 OBP.  This corresponds very well with what he showed he was capable of when in the minor leagues.  His splits against lefties and righties don’t raise any red flags, though he does appear to hit lefties better (.319 BA-LHP, .287 BA-RHP).  While his second half was not awful, his slugging percentage, speed, and RBI totals declined in the second half.  With 2009 being his first season to even approach 500 ABs, it is not hard to believe that he tired down the stretch (only 3 HR in Sept and Oct combined).

Warning Signs

Of course, there are a few issues that raise red flags about Ben Zobrist.  Firstly, he is old to just now be breaking into the major leagues as an everyday player.  He will be 29 in May of 2010.  Players that break in that late tend to peak and decline quicker than those who break-out during their early 20’s.  I am also wary of players who have had sudden improvements so high above their baseline production.  The fact that there were swing coaches involved makes me feel a little better about it, but it makes me wonder what happens if/when he finds himself in his first real slump.  Will he revert to his older tendencies?  The speed he displayed was just gravy for his fantasy owners.  Yet with a borderline success rate, those SBs could disappear very quickly.  He only stole 6 bases on 9 attempts in the second half last season.  Finally, there is one weird stat out there that I noticed.  His batting average was 60 points lower when he played second base (.261) as opposed to outfield (.321).  It is an odd stat, but one that is worth noting since he is slated to start at second base for the 2010 season.

Fantasy Implications

Ben Zobrist is going to go for a good amount of bid money or an early pick in the 2010 season (relative to his 2009 draft day ranking).  He is a very attractive target for 2B, and if your league only requires 10 games for qualification, then he is even more attractive at shortstop.  In 2009, he truly put forth a 5 category effort.  I can find very few flaws with his splits, and his power has been fairly consistent for over a season now.  Would I consider him a keeper that I want on my team for years and years?  Probably not.  However, if I can grab him at shortstop this year and it doesn’t break my bank, I’m in.  Even if he regresses a bit, he will still be among the highest producing players at a very thin position.  Of course, if this is just the beginning and he is actually still improving, then you will have a real gem on your hands.  The most likely reality is that he gives some of that advance in production back.  That doesn’t mean is isn’t a valuable guy.  It just means that he does not rank at the top of the fantasy shortstop rankings with Hanley Ramirez, Troy Tulowitzki, Jimmy Rollins, Jose Reyes and Derek Jeter.  Though he could easily find a home just below that group if he can just maintin 90% of the numbers he put up in 2009.  If your league shows any hesitation about this guy, my advice is to take the gamble and jump.  My projections for him: 25 HR, 90 RBI, 85 R, 9 SB, .282 BA.