Date: 9 Jan 2010 Comments: 0

Published by Keith Giordano in: Author-Keith Draft Prep Player Analysis Positional Tier

There is a lot of good production available for your 2010 fantasy baseball team at third base.  The second tier is especially deep, with upside type players lasting all the way into the fourth tier.  If you can get one of the top options, you should be happy, but there are cheaper options available later if you miss out on them.

Third Base

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Top Tier: Alex Rodriguez

Despite the fact that Alex Rodriguez did not put up the best numbers at third base in 2009, I still rank him a the top of this position.  He could explode for a monster season in any given year, and should still be considered as one of the top overall fantasy commodities.  He has more power than any other option except for Reynolds, still steals bases, and is a lock for 100 RBI.  Even with all of the quality options in the second tier, none of them is the complete package that is the Almighty A-Rod.

Second Tier: Evan Longoria, Ryan Zimmerman, Kevin Youkilis, Mark Reynolds, David Wright, Pablo Sandoval, Michael Young, Aramis Ramirez, Chone Figgins

Evan Longoria is certainly coming along nicely.  He made nice progress with his BB/K rate in 2009 and should continue to be ranked among the top third basemen for years to come.  But then when you look at Ryan Zimmerman, you realize that he may be almost the same player.  When you look at his stats from 2009, they are every bit as good (if not better) than Evan Longoria’s.  In fact, Longoria and Zimmerman put up an OPS within 2 points of each other in 2009 (Longoria – .890, Zimmerman – .889).  His AB/HR rate is not quite as good as Longoria’s, but if you can get Zimmerman at a discount he could be just as valuable to your fantasy baseball team.  Kevin Youkilis just had his second quality season in a row with an OPS over .900 (2009 – .961 : higher than Longoria or Zimmerman!).  His batting average is very nice, and his AB/HR rate over the last two seasons has been almost identical (2008 – 18.6, 2009 – 18.2 AB/HR).  With the table-setters he has hitting in front of him, expect the RBIs to continue as well.  If your league discounts him at all because he has not actually hit the 30 HR plateu, grab him.

When it comes to Mark Reynolds, you have to remember that no matter how much you bid, or how early you take him, last year’s monster season will not count for 2010.  It can easily be argued that Reynolds should be placed in the top tier after his awesome 2009, but a repeat is nowhere near certain.  It was his first season hitting over 40 HR, so a correction is likely, and I do not think the SBs will last.  For a complete analysis of why I think Reynolds is overrated, see my Overrated Fantasy Hitters article.  Just as I believe that Reynolds’ numbers are likely to regress toward his previous stats, I believe that David Wright is likely to rebound in 2010.  Do I think he will hit 30 HRs while playing half his games in Citi-Field?  No.  But somewhere in the low-to-mid 20s is certainly doable.  A rebound to 20-100-30-90-.310 is not very hard to believe.  I would take that in a second if people sleep on Wright.  I devoted a complete article with stats and analysis as to why.  Click here to read it.

Pablo Sandoval is amazing.  Even when he swings at balls outside the strike zone, Sandoval’s contact rate is over 75%.  If his power grows just a little more he could wind up being something special.  However, the supporting cast in San Francisco and the ballpark are working against his run and RBI totals, so it is worth discounting his price just a dollar or two.  Michael Young’s 2009 stat-line is crazy.  He hit for a career high batting average and had the best AB/HR rate of his career.  Strangely enough, he had his lowest RBI total since 2002.  He rebounded in the second half of the season, having the same number of RBI as in the first half, but in 147 fewer ABs.  He showed that he is not done yet, and someone that can give you 600+ ABs with a batting average around .315 is just huge for your team.

Chone Figgins found a new home on the Mariners, and should keep stealing his bases.  Funny that the one thing the Mariners knew they had was a leadoff hitter (Ichiro) and they signed another one instead of a power bat.  Beware, since they did not have much power, Figgy may not even hit the 100 runs mark in 2010.  Just because Aramis Ramirez only hit 15 HR in 2009, don’t discount him too much.  His AB/HR rate and RBI total were right on target with his career averages.  His batting average remained high (.317), and he even set a new career high in OBP (.389).  If he is healthy, he could easily rebound to be as good as any of these other options in 2010.

Third Tier:  Chipper Jones, Jorge Cantu, Gordon Beckham, Jhonny Peralta, Casey Blake, Adrian Beltre

The third tier may be small, but it is comprised of fairly safe bets.  Will they put up huge numbers?  Most likely not.  However, each of these options are safe enough that you can depend on them to play the entire season (barring injury of course).  Chipper Jones is not the superstar he once was, but should be good for a plus batting average and 20-something home runs.  Jorge Cantu has bounced back from a couple of slow seasons to prove that he is a major league regular.  Jhonny Peralta and Casey Blake are both options that aren’t flashy, but can offer a 20-90 season with a decent batting average.

Gordon Beckham has upside for sure, however he could wind up being the most expensive option in the tier in 2010 fantasy baseball auctions since his upside is so high.  Disclaimer: I have a weakness for Adrian Beltre.  In Boston I feel that he could rebound significantly.  A good lineup around him and a ballpark where he can pull the ball into the Green Monster 60 times a season is just what the doctor ordered for his fantasy value.

Fourth Tier: Casey McGehee, Martin Prado, Placido Polanco, Ian Stewart, Mark Teahen, Jake Fox, Mark DeRosa, Troy Glaus

Unlike the third tier, the guaranteed production in the fourth tier is not above average.  However, there are a few options in this tier possessing enough upside to make them the better choice if they come much cheaper (which many of them will).  I particularly like Casey McGehee.  He showed good power (but not so drastic that your competition will be falling over themselves to get him) and also a very good batting average.  With a solid lineup around him he could develop into nice fantasy asset.  Martin Prado will probably be taken at second base before the players at third are this thin, but he should play all year.  I am a little skeptical about his power, but if cheap he is worth the gamble.

Jake Fox will get his chance to be a full-time player in 2010.  The ballpark is not one I would want my sleeper to play in, but you could do worse at the hot corner.  Troy Glaus will man first base in 2010 for the Braves.  His health will always be an issue, but 20 HR (probably with the usual poor BA) could be yours cheap.  Placido Polanco – steady but mediocre.  I do not expect that Mark DeRosa will hit for as much power as we have come to expect playing half his games in San Francisco.

The Rest: Garrett Atkins, Brandon Inge, Brandon Wood, Chris Davis, Edwin Encarnacion, Ty Wigginton, Jeff Baker, Emilio Bonifacio, Josh Fields, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Chase Headley, David Freese, Alex Gordon

As usual, when we are in the bottom tier, playing time is an issue for many of these options.  The steadier ones may be predictable, but they are unspectacular in their level of production.  Kevin Kouzmanoff, Chase Headley, and Ty Wigginton are the safest of these options, but none possess a large amount of upside.  Headley has put up two seasons where his numbers were very similar after accounting for the difference in ABs.  The Padres do not have much hitting outside of Adrian Gonzalez (and maybe Kyle Blanks), so a large jump in RBI or runs is doubtful.  However, he should gain over 500 ABs as a regular starter.  Ty Wigginton is a perennial waiver-wire pickup that has to fight for playing time every year, but usually winds up posting numbers that can be helpful to a fantasy team.  In 2009, his numbers took a hit, as he posted half the number of HRs for which he is usually dependable.   Much like Headley, Kouzmanoff could wind up playing all year, but his fantasy numbers are less than excellent.  He does possess some power, but his OBP and batting average have not shown any improvement over the last three seasons.  The best thing that could happen to his fantasy value would be a trade out of San Diego.

Everyone loved Chris Davis for 2009.  In my two keeper leagues, he was protected for way more than I would have considered smart.  He has plenty of power, but strikes out a ton and may have playing time issues in 2010.  Garrett Atkins could recover from his awful 2009, but leaving Colorado is not a formula for a hitter to improve.  Expect a slight recovery, but not a resurgence back to his prime.  Even if Brandon Inge is able to duplicate the power he showed in 2009, that batting average is brutal.  He can’t hit lefties.  Josh Fields does offer some upside in 2010 if he can win some playing time.  Alex Gordon also has upside, but with the current makeup of the Royals’ roster, he and Gordon could be fighting for one position if David Dejesus holds onto the left field job.  The sleeper of the bunch is Brandon Wood.  Sure, everyone knows his name because he has been a sleeper for years.  However, it looks like the Angels feel he is ready for a full time job.  They said the same thing about Kendry Morales last season and look at the results.  If you get down this low without a third baseman, you may as well go for the upside.