Date: 10 Jan 2010 Comments: 1

Published by Mike D in: Author-MikeD Draft Prep Player Analysis

The “game” of putting together a fantasy champion involves smart projections, wise use of your money, and a little bit of luck (like avoiding this year’s Jose Reyes). Luck is mainly up to the baseball gods and we’ve been giving you fantasy baseball projections all off-season, so now it’s time to look at that “wise use of your money.” Each year, a group of players play well beyond what was expected of them and, looking back, owners are left saying, “If I had just spent that $1 on this player instead of wasting $15 on that one, my whole year would’ve been different.” Note that for the purposes of this article, if you’re in a league that uses a snake draft instead of an auction, then it’s not money we’re talking about, but bumping someone up a round or two so as not to lose them.

Let’s break down these players into one of three categories. Snoozers are players that some in your fantasy league will probably already be talking about as possible breakout players and (with a big Spring), may be overpriced by the time your draft rolls around. Sleepers are the true question marks. You may get these players for nothing, or a you may an owner or two in your league who have also been eyeing them all off-season. The Rip Van Winkles are players with credentials, but will need to get some breaks in order to really pay off. While you need to judge the depth of your league and where each of these types of players fit, the Rip Van Winkles are really for the leagues with more than 12 teams.

Snoozers

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Garrett Jones -PIT (1B/OF)- 2009 : 314 AB, 293 BA, 21 HR, 44 RBI, 45 R, 10 SB

Watching Garrett Jones play last summer, I was looking forward to keeping this hidden gem in my back pocket for the latter rounds of my draft.  But as he continued to pound the baseball, it became evident that he would slip from sleeper status to the hot new item.   Jones’ bat struck for 21 home runs in just 314 at-bats, a pace that seems unlikely to continue. However, a fraction of that success over the course of a 600 at-bat season would mean exciting numbers for a happy fantasy baseball owner.

The warning signs are there. While the magical notion of “sophomore slumps” does not exist, there is a real reason that young players seem to hit a wall after a season of success. Baseball is a game of adjustments, both inside the course of a game and from year to year as well. Just as we all saw what Jones did in 2009, so too did the league. They all now have a book on him. As sloppy fantasy owners get mesmerized by the opportunity to double those home run numbers in a full season, more attentive owners will notice that doubling those 76 strikeouts is a little concerning. Certainly, each of those Ks has given pitching coaches around baseball the beginnings of the textbook on how to attack Jones. It’s now on Jones as to whether he’ll be able to adjust to people knowing his weaknesses.

Adding to the problems for Garrett is that he’s a Pirate. Pittsburgh is not the type of club right now that litters the base-paths with Bucs. Notice that those 21 home runs produced just 44 RBIs and 45 runs. This is not surprising, but something that needs a diligent owner’s attention.

If too many of your fellow owners are acting as though Jones is the second-coming of Babe Ruth, then let him go and take a less-exciting option, like Hunter Pence.  He plays with a better supporting cast and his numbers, while not mind-blowing, are much more predictable. However, if your fellow owners let him slip long enough, he’s not a bad gamble for one of your final outfield spots.

Kyle Blanks – SD (OF/1B) – 2009 : 148 AB, .250 BA, 10 HR, 22 RBI, 24 R, 1 SB

Like Jones, some of your fellow owners took note of Kyle Blanks in 2009. His size (6′6” – 285 lbs.) makes you think of an NFL linebacker instead of baseball player.  However, it’s true.  Provided he has completely recovered from the season-ending foot injury he suffered in late August, Blanks will be the Padres starting right fielder on opening day.

Being that size certainly has its benefits. He swats at balls and they appear to be shot out of a cannon, at least for those briefs moments before they leave the hemisphere. In 148 at-bats, Blanks connected for 10 homes runs. Assuming a 600 at-bat season, that’s 40 long balls. For any other player, Petco Park’s spacious dimensions would be an issue, but throw the park out. Blanks can hit them out of anywhere.

However, the size has its drawbacks too. His strike-zone sleeps three, leading to 55 strikeouts in those same 148 at-bats. Over the course of a full season, that would allow him to test Mark Reynolds territory, who set (and then re-set) the MLB single-season strikeout records over the past two seasons(204 and 223, respectively).  This is important to note.  Blanks finds himself in a situation similar to Garret Jones.  He’s on a team that doesn’t have table-setters and so, the power will likely be the only positive stat he’ll provide for your team.  In the relatively small sampling, Blanks netted just 22 RBIs for those 10 home runs.   This is eerily similar to Jones’ problem, and where Jones at least showed some ability to hit for average (.293), Blanks was a .250 hitter.

Will Blanks cut down on the strikeouts per at-bat?  Probably, but not by that much.   What an owner needs to realize is that Blanks will likely be below average in runs and RBIs, because of his teammates, not him. He won’t steal a lot of bases (maybe 3) and he’ll hurt your team batting average.  Plus, he’s coming off an injury. So like Garrett Jones, if the bidding gets too high, let him go. For now, Blanks appears to be to power what Juan Pierre is to speed. Home runs that travel 500 feet count the same as the wall-scrapers.

Sleepers

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Randy Ruiz – TOR (DH) – 2009 : 115 AB, .313 BA, 10 HR, 17 RBI, 25 R, 1 SB

Unlike the two aforementioned players, many in your league may not have even heard of Randy Ruiz at this point.   The Toronto Blue Jays were tougher to watch last season than “For The Love of Ray J”, and 2009 will best be remembered for overplaying their Roy Halladay hand.  It’s a long season when your best moment is tricking someone into taking the contemptible Alex Rios and his enormous salary off your hands.  Good job White Sox!

But in the midst of that, there were some interesting players to watch, and Ruiz is clearly one of them. His power (10 home runs in 115 at-bats) looks a lot like the line Kyle Blanks put up, but impressively he struck out just 35 times and hit for a .313 average. Adjustments will be the key to the success of Ruiz, but prodigious power lives in his bat. While his 10 home runs produced just 17 RBIs, in what is a familiar theme to this article, with a better supporting cast (Adam Lind, Vernon Wells, Travis Snider, Aaron Hill to name a few) he should be able to achieve better production for his efforts than Garrett Jones and Kyle Blanks.

If owners are just chomping at the bit to get Blanks and Jones, let Ruiz slide a little and take him at your DH spot quietly toward the end of your draft. You may out-produce those others and you’ll have a reason to get involved in the silly drama that will be the 2010 Blue Jays. It should be better than “For The Love of Ray J 2″.

Matt Garza – TB (SP) – 2009 :  203.0 IN, 8 W, 3.95 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 189 K

The players mentioned in this article so far are young players with exciting upside.  Now it’s time for a player that others certainly know about, but might deserve an upgrade on your sheets. Matt Garza is a flat-out workhorse. If you’ve read my past articles, I preach the gospel of reliability. Usually, I’m referring to the guaranteed at-bats, but having a starter on your staff that you draft and never again have to deal with is a great boon to your chances of putting together a winning team.

Player values are like stock prices. They don’t always match reality, and are sometimes tied to people’s personal preferences. In most leagues, there was a decent amount of hype surrounding Garza when he was moved from the Twins. An 11-9 record in his first season with Tampa showed some promise (3.70 era/1.24 whip), but didn’t live up to the unrealistic hopes some owners had. 2009 would further disappoint Garza hopefuls, as he could muster just 8 wins. The Rays run support (or lack thereof) was to blame for the dearth of victories. However, the internal numbers tell the story of a young player coming into his own.

Garza started 32 games last season, up from an impressive 30 the year before. He also set a career-high in strikeouts with 189, jumping from 128 in 2008. The ERA and WHIP were up slightly from ‘08, but the moves were not enough that it should worry you. The ERA moved from 3.70 to 3.95, while the WHIP moved from 1.24 to 1.26. If nothing else, these moves appear to be a wash when compared to nearly 20 extra innings Garza tossed in 2009, his first season north of 200 in that category.

The bottom line is, take a close look at what pitchers are going in your league, and where they come off the board. If your fellow owners are willing to let him slip, jump up and grab him. Let them moan or laugh about the eight wins. You can sit back and smile to yourself knowing that you just bought 200+ solid major league innings on the cheap. What’s more important to you, the first laugh or the last?

Rip Van Winkles

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Angel Pagan – NYM (OF) – 2009 :  343 AB, .306 BA, 6 HR, 32 RBI, 54 R, 14 SB

Angel Pagan is a diamond in the rough…….the very rough. Sometimes last season, it appeared as though Pagan was someone the Mets had plucked from the stands for a promotional stunt.  But those times were never at the plate. Pagan is a wonderful contact hitter who got a chance to show his stuff for the second half of the dreadful 2009 Mets campaign after injuries derailed multiple Met players. The numbers were OK (343 ABs, 6 home runs, 14 stolen bases to 7 caught stealing), but to see him play is to feel the potential.

In baseball terminology, Pagan has a live bat. The few home runs he hit were out of the place before he was halfway to first and his outstanding contact rate (89.3% in 2009) led to a .306 batting average for the young player. The signing of Jason Bay means that Pagan is the odd man out in the Met outfield. Bay will patrol left with Carlos Beltran in center and Jeff Francoeur in right. Take as a good sign that when the Royals came calling earlier this off-season, the Mets would not talk about Pagan.

Sure he runs the base-paths like a T-baller, but that can be fixed. Keep an eye on the Mets outfield during the Spring. If any of them get hurt or traded, then Pagan will get another shot and you should move him way up your depth charts.

Will Venable – SD (OF) – 2009 :  293 AB, .256 BA, 12 HR, 38 RBI, 38 R, 6 SB

While Kyle Blanks makes people say, “Wow,” Will Venable makes people say, “Who’s that?” Acquaint yourself with this young Padre and be one of the few people in your league who knows the answer to that question.

Venable was called up last season even before Blanks and really struggled, but the Padres stuck with him and Venable showed real improvement. His final line (293 at-bats, .256 BA, 12 HRs, 6 SBs) won’t jump out at most of your fellow owners, which is why you need to store him in the back of your mind. He’s someone who you could probably get with your final spot and might go undrafted if you don’t take him, largely because the pedestrian numbers, combined with Petco Park, will send your fellow owners looking elsewhere.

Don’t break the bank to get him, but, as I always preach, at-bats are gold. Venable should play well enough to be in the Padre lineup on an everyday basis, and if given the late-draft decision between a one-dimensional player headed toward 400 at-bats or Venable, I’d take the at-bats and the surprisingly even-handed dispersal of power and speed.

– Mike D is an contributing writer for Fantasy Baseball Addiction