Date: 10 Jan 2010 Comments: 4 so far

Published by Keith Giordano in: Author-Keith Draft Prep Player Analysis Player Profile

The 2009 National League Rookie of the Year did not really put up the fantasy production we have come to expect from the winner of that distinguished award.  Chris Coghlan certainly had a fine season.  However, just because he won Rookie of the Year, doesn’t justify paying overpaying for him in your fantasy baseball auction.  Many GMs shelled out big bucks to protect or draft several of the recent ROY winners.  Recent winners of the N.L. ROY include: Ryan Braun, Hanley Ramirez, Ryan Howard, Jason Bay, and Albert Pujols.  Those names put up some incredible numbers in their rookie season, which made fantasy baseball GMs pay top dollar to either draft or protect those players.  Those who did were, for the most part, very happy with the results of their decision.

Yet there were some other names sprinkled in these last several years that did not pan out quite so well for owners that drafted them.  Those who decided to pay for Geovany Soto, Dontrelle Willis, Jason Jennings, and Scott Williamson (other recent N.L. ROY winners) were not quite so happy with the results.  Chris Coghlan could easily turn out to be a name on this second list.  So we ask that age old questions:  What are realistic fantasy baseball projections for Chris Coghlan in 2010?  and, How much should you pay for him in your 2010 fantasy baseball auction?

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Minor League Career

On the positive side, there are not a whole lot of minor league statistics for us to examine for Coghlan.  He played in at least part of 3 minor league seasons from 2006-2008, for a total of 277 games and just over 1000 ABs.  While this may make it harder to predict what he will do in the major leagues, it is a sign that his managers and coaches thought he was progressing nicely, and had the talent to perform in the show.  During his minor league stint, Coghlan accrued a BA of .293, an OBP of .384, and walked more than he struck out (BB-142, SO-137).  These are all great signs for Coghlan’s ability to hit.  Plate discipline is one of the major stumbling blocks that cause many a baseball prospect to falter and fail to achieve greatness.  Fortunately for those who will pay the price for Coghaln, he appears to be able to dodge this particular bullet.

Batting average, however, is only part of the equation you must calculate when looking at what Coghlan may do in the 2010 season.  While Coghlan can hit the occasional home run, he did not prove to be a power hitter in the minors.  He managed to hit only 19 home runs in the aforementioned 3 seasons.  So while the 24 year-old may develop more power as he ages, there is no indication that he will suddenly develop the power that fantasy GMs are looking for.  He did steal a good amount of bases while playing in the minors.  At his longest minor league stop (483 ABs for AA-Carolina) he stole 34 bases.  Granted, he was also caught 10 times, but it does show that he has the speed to make an impact on one’s fantasy roster if he were given the green light on the base-paths.

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2009

Chris Coghlan had a good 2009 season.  Well, let’s be a little more specific.  He had a awesome second half to the 2009 season.  In the first half, Coghlan hit a meager .245 over 200 ABs.  No big deal though, since it was his first appearance in the show, and struggles can be expected for a young player.  The second half of the season was completely different.  Coghlan hit .372 in his 304 ABs after the All-Star Break with an OBP of .423.  Sick numbers, right?  For the season he hit over .300 against both left-handed and right-handed pitching.  He hit over .290 both at home and away.  Coghlan’s power numbers were right in line with his minor league stats, hitting a home run every 56 ABs.  Though he did hit 7 home runs after the All-Star Break versus 2 before.  While Coghlan showed speed in the minors, as stated above his successful stolen base rate was somewhat lacking.  This fact was even more apparent in the big leagues, as he was caught stealing 5 times in his 13 attempts.

Another departure from his minor league numbers was his 2009 BB/K rate (53BB/77K).  From walking more than striking out in the minors, to walking 24 times less than striking out is a significant decline.  The decline is troubling, yet his contact rate on balls he swung at was great (84.2%), and his contact rate on balls swung at in the strike zone was nuts (91.7%).  This leads me to believe that while he may not walk at as great a rate as he did in the minors, striking out will not be a big problem for Coghlan.  Thanks again to Fangraphs.com for their excellent stats.

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Warning Signs

The warning signs for Coghlan are not directly apparent.  Statistically, Coghlan has proven to be a competent major league hitter.  The only batting average related statistic that perhaps waves a small red flag is that his BABIP was 33 points higher on the big club in 2009 than it was in his 2008 minor league season (2009- .366, 2008- .333).  Despite this, it is a good bet that he will continue to hit for a good batting average. If he continues to hit at the top of the order, then he will continue to score runs.  That is, however, only two of the five major fantasy baseball scoring categories.  His power may spike for a season or two here or there, but he does not project to develop regular 20 HR power, especially while playing half his games at Land Shark Stadium.  His 47% ground ball rate, and low HR/FB rate support that premise.  While he was able to steal a good total of bases in the minors, he managed to steal only 8 bases in 13 attempts during 2009.  This is a miserable success rate, let alone for a lead-off hitter.  In fact, his rate was only 50% over the second half of 2009 (4SB, 4CS).  If this was a technique issue, his success rate should have climbed as he was coached on how to steal at the major league level.  So while he has the on-base skills to maintain his standing as a top of the order hitter, there is only so much that he can do with those opportunities.

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Fantasy Implications

Coghlan has gotten a ton of press since the All-Star Break of 2009.  To be honest, his profile is higher than it should be.  He is a nice fantasy commodity if you are looking for a 4th outfielder.  He will help you negate another active player’s terrible batting average, and score more runs than the average player.  However, if you are counting on him to take another big step forward in the power and speed categories, you are asking to be disappointed.  There is nothing that shows that he is going to grow significantly in those areas.  Coghlan won the award, which means everyone will know his name.  With a second half batting average so high, people will know his stats.  The point is that you are not going to get him cheap unless you can protect him for the small price you drafted him for in 2009.  So we have a steady hitter that will score runs, not hit for much power, not steal for a few bases, that won a huge award causing everyone in your league to know who he is.

This is not a fantasy baseball sleeper.  This is not a breakout candidate.  This is a very nice piece that you can use on your team for the right price.  Bump his value up a bit if you can keep him or draft him at 2B.  The key is realizing that, and not paying to much to get him on your roster.  Batting average is nice, but it also fluctuates.  If you are depending on a player to hit for a high average to justify the price you are going to pay, and they don’t, that is just wasted money.  Despite all the stats that indicate that he will continue to hit well, stranger things have happened than a second-year player hitting significantly worse than he did in his rookie year.  Some bad luck and a downturn in his BABIP and the player you think of as your “stud, rookie of the year, keeper” is just a slightly better version of Skip Schumaker.

2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections: .308 BA, 11 HR, 42 RBI, 90 R, 12 SB, 605 AB