Date: 12 Jan 2010 Comments: 6 so far

Published by Keith Giordano in: Author-Keith Draft Prep Player Analysis

Every season there are players who go completely bananacakes.  They have crazy-great stats and their value shoots through the roof.  Of course, as their value goes up, their price goes up.  Whether that price is reflected in, the price a player goes for in your fantasy auction, an earlier pick in your fantasy draft, or better players you have to give up in a trade, a single good season can dramatically increase a player’s price.

There is nothing wrong with this fact.  The key is recognizing it and adjusting the price you are willing to pay to match what you think the player’s production for 2010 will be, and not pay for whatever 2009 stats they accrued.  Just because you think a player has over-performed doesn’t mean you should avoid that player all together.  It just means that you cannot get carried away in the bidding for his services.  So let’s look at some players who’s fantasy value rose drastically in 2009, yet may not perform well enough to justify their higher 2010 price.

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Catcher

Kurt Suzuki (OAK) –  The production Suzuki put up in 2009 was both huge and unexpected.  He more than doubled his home run and RBI totals from 2008, and did so in only 40 more ABs.  Since he placed 4th among catchers in RBI and 11th in home runs, it is not likely that this player will slip under your opponent’s radar.  His price is going to be high for 2010.  Let’s face it, everyone is looking for an advantage at catcher.  The position is so weak that even a sniff of a breakout player is worthy of an extra couple of bid dollars, or using a pick on him a round earlier than you normally would.

Suzuki is a prime candidate for someone to overpay.  There are few indications that the power will remain, and there are statistics that indicate that it won’t.  Suzuki hit 5 HRs in 307 ABs in the first half of the season, and 10 HRs in 263 ABs in the second.  His batting average also dropped 42 points from the first half to the second (his OBP dropped to .286).   If you look back to 2007, he actually hit 7 HRs in only 213 ABs, which is closer to the AB/HR rate that he had in 2009.  This is the only number I can find to support paying for the 2009 stats as if they will continue.  My bet is they won’t.  2010 fantasy baseball projections: .268 BA, 9 HR, 70RBI, 62 R, 4 SB, 450 AB

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First Base

Derrek Lee (CHC) –  It seems as though every few seasons Derrek Lee puts up numbers that pump his value up significantly.  In 2003, Lee had 31 HR and 21 SBs.  Fantasy GMs paid large bid money because the speed at first base was such an asset.  Lee responded by stealing only 12 bases in 2004, though he did hit 32 HRs.  In 2005 came the mother of all over-productive seasons, as Lee hit 46 HR (14 more than his career high), 107 RBI (career high), a .335 BA (54 points over his career high), 120 runs (25 over career high), and 15 SBs.  The amount fantasy GMs overpaid for Lee in 2006 was massive.  Needless to say, Lee got injured in that season, and did not have a chance to repeat those numbers.  However, the numbers he did put up in the 175 ABs he logged was nowhere near that level of production.

In the following two seasons, Lee’s power reverted back to his baseline level of production:  home run totals in the 20s and 80-90 RBIs.  His batting average did remain higher than his career average, but his speed was cut in half.  So in 2009 Lee had another “gonna-have-to-pay-big-bucks-to-get-him” year.  With 35 home runs, a career high in RBI, and a BA 25 points above his career average, there is no question that Lee will command a higher price than he has in years (it should also be noted that he only stole 1 base in 2009).  Don’t pay it.  The chances that he matches the second best season of his career at 34 years old is low.  Even if he does manage to approach those numbers, there are other players out there just as capable as Lee that will be cheaper due to their lower profile.  Take one of them, and use the extra cash for something else.  2010 fantasy baseball projection:  .301 BA, 27 HR, 97 RBI, 90 R, 5 SB, 543 AB

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Second Base

Aaron Hill (TOR) –  It doesn’t take a genius to figure out that Hill will see the biggest price increase among second basemen from 2009 to 2010.  Hitting 36 home runs, he led the position in the category.  There is definitely a chance that Hill will keep most of the power he showed in the 2009 season.  After hitting only 2 home runs in 205 ABs in 2008 (when he got injured), the 36 home run total he recorded in 2009 was (needless to say) impressive.  Yet, his power surge didn’t come out of nowhere.  In 2007 Hill did manage to hit 17 home runs on the season.  So it is fair to say that Hill does have some power, but 36 home runs worth?  I will not pay for that.

Take a look at Hill’s career AB/HR numbers: 2005- 120.3,  2006- 91,  2007- 35.8,  2008- 102.5,  2009- 18.9.  They are all over the place.  It is much easier to predict what a player will do when the numbers climb or fall steadily.  It is much harder when those numbers jump around in no particular pattern, and injury affects playing time.  I do find it very hard to believe that he will be able to match this huge jump in AB/HR.  Also worthy of noting is that Hill lead all of MLB with 682 ABs in 2009.  This number of ABs is extremely unusual.  Over the last three seasons, only 4 players have had over 680 ABs (Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins, Aaron Hill, Ichiro Suzuki).  Notice that Hill is the only non-leadoff hitter to reach that number.  So that is another crucial statistic that needs to stay high if he is to maintain his current value.  The one set of numbers that I found that can be used to support paying the price Hill will cost in 2010 is that his month-to-month power production was consistent throughout the season.  How much do you think a 36 home run hitting second baseman is going to cost?  How good do you feel about paying that price for a player that only hit a total of 28 home runs in the 1720 ABs in his career prior to his huge 2009?  I don’t feel good about it at all.  2010 fantasy baseball projection:  .282 BA, 26 HR, 90 RBI, 89 R, 6 SB, 585 AB

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Third Base

Mark Reynolds (ARI) –  Duh.  This one is pretty obvious.  It is pretty hard to ignore a season where a player hits over 40 home runs and steals over 20 bases.  I am not doubting his power.  That is something that was supposed to be a part of Reynolds’ game.  Add in the fact that Reynolds turns 27 this season (the cliche “power-spike” age), and there could be a feeding frenzy for his services at your auction or draft this season.

There are plenty of reasons to be skeptical about whether or not Reynolds will be able to maintain his value.  Of course, we have to start with his second straight year setting the record for number of strikeouts.  His BB/K rate has gotten worse in each of his big league seasons.  His isolated power jumped 65 points over what it had been from the previous two seasons.  He swings at too many pitches outside of the strike zone, his contact rate shows that he misses 37% of the time when he swings the bat, and he swings at almost 50% of the pitches thrown to him.  So sure, he had a monster power season, but the numbers show that a season with far fewer home runs, and an even lower batting average is not hard to imagine.  Top off the fact that his stolen base percentage was 9th lowest among players that stole at least 20 bases, and his value can drop even further if they give him the red light on the base-paths.

There is plenty of truth to the argument that Reynolds could well be worth the price you will have to pay to get him.  Those fantasy GMs that like Adam Dunn are sure to use the same reasoning for Reynolds.  That is:  40 home runs is 40 home runs.  Who cares about the batting average?  Top it off with the thinner third base position that Reynolds qualifies at, and the price goes up higher and higher.  Personally, I would like to see at least another season where Reynolds’ shortcomings are overcome, and great fantasy numbers are put up again.  Dunn is so valuable because he hits 40 HRs every season.  Reynolds has done so only once.  Until he is as safe a bet as Dunn, I will reign in my expectations, and keep my bid money for someone else.  2010 fantasy baseball projection: .244 BA, 34 HR, 99 RBI, 95, 15 SB, 550 AB

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Shortstop

Derek Jeter (NYY) –  Hey, I am a Yankee fan, and even I am willing to admit that Jeter has passed his prime.  You may not realize it since he still looks so young and dates the hottest women on the planet, but he has played in the league for 15 years.  He will be 36 years old this season.  How many times have you been offered a player in a trade that is 36 years old and you said, “Wow, they are old, and I can’t trust that they will keep putting up those great stats.”?  With his resurgent season, there are going to be plenty of GMs that are willing to drink the Jeter cool-aid and pay as if he were 28 again.  The key word there is “resurgent”.  That means that his numbers returned to what they used to be when he was in his prime.

I have no doubt that Jeter will hit for a good batting average.  I have no doubt that he will score a ton of runs.  I have considerable doubt that he will steal 30 bases again (a number he has reached only 4 times in 15 seasons, more than double his 2008 total).  I also have large doubt as to whether or not he can hit 18 home runs again.  His RBI total has dropped three straight years, despite his extra power in 2009 and improvements to the Yankee lineup.  There is no question that the new Yankee Stadium is better for power numbers, and this is supported by Jeter’s home and road splits (13 HR – home, 5 HR – road).  So there is the argument to be made that the power could stay.  However, if the people in your league are ready to pay for Jeter as if it were the days of the big three (A-Rod, Nomar Garciaparra, Jeter), then you should just let him go.  2010 fantasy baseball projection:  .308 BA, 14 HR, 50 RBI, 103 R, 22 SB, 613 AB

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Outfield

Michael Bourn (HOU) -  Stolen bases are the crack form of fantasy addiction.  We need ‘em……..we need ‘em baaaaad.  Maybe your addiction is for WHIP or RBIs.  But if you are hooked on SBs, you need help.  Michael Bourn is going to have fantasy GMs going after him like Jeff Portnoy goes after heroin.  What you have to remember is, not all drugs are bad.  The good kind that you get from the pharmacy (like Ichiro) are fantasy baseball medicine, and can help you win fantasy championships.  Michael Bourn is the bad kind of drugs.  The type that will have you sleeping in a refrigerator box on W 53rd street.  Even scarier, the kind that can hurt your fantasy team greatly if you pay for him at this year’s cost.

In 2008, Bourn stole 41 bases but hit a meager .229.  His OBP was .288, he struck out 111 times to only 37 walks, and he hit .190 against left-handed pitching.  Despite all that, the Astros still went into the 2009 season with Bourn as a starter.  In 2009, Bourn was a completely different player.  His batting average in 2009 was about equal to his 2008 OBP, he hit lefties and righties equally, and he upped his stolen base total to 61. Yes, 2009 was a good season.  In fact, it was an incredible season for Michael Bourn.  However, will 2010 be as good?  The numbers say that it probably will not.  Sure, he will steal bases.  But that is a function of how often he gets on base.  That .285 batting average from 2009 is not something that I feel he will repeat in 2010.  While the scoring stats do not paint a complete picture, the secondary numbers show it all.  BABIP is a good stat to watch.  While it does not tell the whole story, it can give insight into breakout or slump type seasons where the player in question either under or over produces in relation to their baseline of production.

The average for all players in Major League Baseball for 2009 was for a player’s BABIP to be 40 points over their batting average (min 100 ABs).  Obviously, this number has to be taken into account with the totality of a player’s statistics.  Yet, the difference for Bourn is blaring.  Bourn’s BABIP (.367) was 82 points over his batting average (.285).  He had the 15th highest BABIP in the league (the average BABIP for the league with the same min 100 ABs was .301).  In fact, if you really want to compare full-time starters, Bourn had the 3rd highest BABIP for all MLB players with over 500 AB in 2009.  While his BB/K rate was slightly higher, it cannot explain this difference.  So unless you believe that Bourn’s baseline should be twice the league average for BABIP, you can reasonably conclude that luck played a role in his “breakout” season.

You also need to consider that Bourn is a three scoring category contributor at best.  He will never hit for close to the power or RBIs offered by the average outfielder.  So if you pay as much money for Bourn as it would cost to get Ichiro, and that batting average regresses, is he worth it?  Consider that his runs and stolen bases will also suffer if he doesn’t get on base.  What if his batting average against left-handers sinks closer to his 2008 average of .190?  Does he lose playing time in the second half?  Juan Pierre was worthy of fairly large bid money for years.  If he had hit only .240 would he had been worth the same amount?  Unless you know the answers to these questions, it would be silly to pay the top bid dollars that Bourn will command in an auction.  If you have him cheap in a keeper league, sure, you should be psyched to keep him.  But if you are paying to acquire him, you are probably paying too much to take all of those gambles.  2010 fantasy baseball projection:  .253 BA, 89 R, 2 HR, 32 RBI, 46 SB, 585 AB

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