Date: 13 Jan 2010 Comments: 0

Published by Keith Giordano in: Author-Keith Draft Prep Player Analysis Positional Tier

Shortstop is not as thin as it used to be.  When I started playing fantasy baseball there were about 3 or 4 actually useful shortstops that were worth paying more than a couple of dollars for.  For 2010 that list is more than doubled.  Second base appears much thinner than shortstop this season, and you should adjust your prices to match.

Shortstop

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Top Tier : Hanley Ramirez

There are those in the second tier at shortstop that may put up studly seasons here and there, but there is only one Hanley Ramirez.  With power, speed, and average, he remains alone at the top of the heap.  I would really love to see what he could do with a better lineup around him and a better hitter’s park to call home.  Regardless, he is guaranteed fantasy baseball gold, and should be considered as one of the top 2 or 3 commodities overall.

Second Tier : Jimmy Rollins, Troy Tulowitzki, Derek Jeter, Jose Reyes, Jason Bartlett, Ben Zobrist

Jimmy Rollins was a fantasy team killer in the first half of 2009.  With a crazy rebound in the second half, his end of the year stat line was still worth a hefty bid.  He still has power and will still steal bases.  The Phillie lineup is as good as ever, and Rollins has shown the pedigree in his past to believe that his batting average could rebound in a huge way in 2010.  If you can get him at a discount, jump.  Troy Tulowitzki also had a slow start to 2009.  In fact, in one of my keeper leagues his owner offered him up in every deal he proposed for over a month.  He couldn’t move Tulo, and now he is really happy about it.  While I do not believe that he will match his 2009, he is still worth your bid money.  Just don’t go overboard.

Derek Jeter has been doing it for years, but 2009 was his first truly excellent fantasy season since 2006.  As a Yankee fan I love him.  As a fantasy GM that loves to win, I pass.  His name and the fact that his numbers took an uptick in 2009 are going to drive his price through the roof.  For a complete breakdown and analysis as to why I feel Jeter is going to be priced too high, see my Overrated Fantasy Hitters article.

Jose Reyes may be the superstar who saw his value decrease the most due to his poor and injury-riddled 2009 season.  He was a top 4 pick in 2009 snake drafts, and commanded huge bid money in fantasy baseball auctions.  Hamstring problems (let alone ones that require surgery like Reyes’ did) are a huge problem for players who’s primary fantasy asset is speed.  It is the classic high risk/reward decision.  If Reyes is healthy, he will likely pick up where he left off.  Which is as one of the best fantasy players in the game.  If these injuries resurface, he could lose valuable ABs to the disabled list.  Someone in your league will be willing to pay for him as if 2009 never happened.  Don’t be that guy.  Adjust his price to reflect the risk you are taking, and don’t chase him past that point.

Ah, now we come to the two names that people will have a problem with being placed so high in this report.  Jason Bartlett had one of the largest upticks in value due to his monster 2009.  He turned the corner from no-power, semi-speedster who had a decent batting average into a moderate power, high-batting average, good-speed, potential leadoff hitter.  For a complete analysis, see Mike D’s Jason Bartlett Player Profile.

Ben Zobrist completely rebuilt his swing.  You have seen the results.  The power he has shown is way above average for a shortstop (he had 13 games at short in 2009), and his production was fairly consistent month-to-month last year.  If your league allows you to draft him at short, you may be able to catch your competition napping, and grab him after the known elite options are gone.  For more Zobrist analysis, see the complete breakdown in his Player Profile.

Third Tier : Alexei Ramirez, Ryan Theriot, Miguel Tejada, Elvis Andrus, Jhonny Peralta, Stephen Drew, Asdrubal Cabrera, Alcides Escobar

This is a very interesting tier with some players that could breakout or rebound.  Alexei Ramirez was supposed to be the breakout shortstop in 2009.  After putting up a nice power/speed combination in 480 ABs in 2008, fantasy baseball GMs broke out their wallets to pay for the upside he offered.  They had to be very disappointed when Ramirez went on to decline in most scoring categories, though having 62 more ABs than he had in 2008.  However, there is reason to still like the youngster.  He watched his batting average go down from .290 to .277, yet his OBP went up from .317 to .333 and his BB/K rate improved drastically.  Now that the hype has settled a bit and his price has lowered, this could be the season where your moderate investment pays huge dividends.

There are four shortstops in this tier who’s main asset is their speed.  Ryan Theriot has seen his batting average jump around from .266 to .307, but his stolen base production has remained consistent.  He is not an option that is going to blow you away in any single category (not even SBs), but should give you some help in each.  If you are looking for speed, Elvis Andrus or Alcides Escobar may be better choices.  This pair of young shortstops are similar in that their organization did not want to wait to put them in the lineup.  Andrus forced Michael Young over to third base in 2009, and we were able to see why almost immediately.  While his batting average was nothing awesome, his OBP as acceptable, and his stolen base total is sure to keep his price in 2010 fantasy baseball auctions high.  Similarly, Alcides Escobar forced the Brewers to completely hose J.J. Hardy.  Hardy started slow in 2009, and despite his past success, they sent him to the minors for contract reasons (and to see what Escobar had to offer).  As it turns out, Escobar showed them enough to let J.J. Hardy leave town.  At the minor league level, Escobar proved himself to be a high-average hitter and good stolen base threat, yet his BB/K rate dropped dramatically upon reaching the show.  Like the other two speed guys we discussed, he does not have much in the way of power, but he could easily wind up in the leadoff spot for much of 2010.

Finally, we come to Asdrubal Cabrera.  He is a strange case, and I have to admit that I am not sure what to think about him.  With the batting average and stolen base total he put up in 2009 (.308 BA, 17 SB), he is not going to slip under your opponent’s radar.  In the minors, he was not a huge stolen base threat.  His minor league high was 23 in 2007, but in no other year in his 6 year minor league career did he steal more than 12.  Another crazy number that pops out of his minor league stats is his BB/K rate.  At some stops it is close to or over 1.0.  At other stops he struck out 3-4 times more than he walked.  I want to be able to predict what the players I draft  will do, and all of these wild cards in Cabrera’s history, plus the higher price tag he will command in 2010 make me want to let someone else pay for his services in 2010.

Miguel Tejada is older than when you could expect great numbers, but not so old that he can’t help your fantasy team.  His average should remain high, and his power is not yet completely gone.  Just be sure to bid on him as though he is in the third tier, not any higher.  Many GMs were expecting Stephen Drew to take a big step forward in 2009.  Needless to say, the step he took was backward.  The good news is that his batting average did not drop all the way back to his 2007 total of .238, and that his BB/K rate actually improved over his great 2008 season.  I would expect that his power will grow a bit more, but it looks as though he will not be a consistent BA asset.  There is upside here, but we have been waiting on this upside to show up for a few years now.  He could be a nice buy-low candidate.

Fourth Tier :  Orlando Cabrera, Yunel Escobar, Marco Scutaro, Everth Cabrera, Erik Aybar, Rafael Furcal, J.J. Hardy, Edgar Renteria, Clint Barmes, Mike Aviles

There is a ton of mediocre, but steady production in this tier.  Orlando Cabrera has hit either 8 or 9 HRs in the last five seasons.  Yet his stolen base total has dropped every season since 2006.  Perhaps this is why he is still a free agent at the time of this posting.  His batting average is still worth while, but his lack of upside should keep your bid reasonable.  Yunel Escobar is another steady but uninspiring option.  He is another player (like O. Cabrera) that will help you in batting average, but put up mediocre production in all the other categories.    Marco Scutaro was a perennial waiver-wire pickup before 2009.  After putting up a decent season (12 HR, 14 SB, 100 R, .282 BA) and his team change to the Red Sox, his price is sure to rise.  He could wind up putting up a similar stat-line in 2010, but I would rather take a safer bet for the price he will go for.  Poor Rafael Furcal.  He was a fantasy gem for the first couple seasons he spent in the bigs.  Now he is an extreme injury risk, and even when healthy has not put up the same numbers GMs associate with his name.  He has the potential to return to his former self, but his injury risk should temper your bid.  Take a look at Everth Cabrera.  He may be available late, he played well in his first major league ABs (.342 OBP, 25 SB).  He was fast enough to steal 73 bases 2008, and he should be on your radar.  Be aware though, last year were his first ABs over A-ball.

There is some upside in this tier that you should note.  J.J. Hardy (as we covered above) was shipped out of town to make way for a younger player.  I see this as an opportunity to buy him low.  His BB/K rate was almost the same as his previous seasons, and his contact rate was only slightly lower than normal.  The one stat that stands out to me is that his BABIP in 2009 was the lowest it had been since his rookie season (2009 BABIP – .264).  It is no secret that he was upset with his former team for the way they played with his career, and the change of scenery should help him.  Another name that you may be able to slip by your fellow league members is Mike Aviles.  After putting up stellar numbers in 2008, Aviles was injured early in 2009 and wound up missed almost the entire season.  While I do not believe that he will return all the way to that .325 BA he recorded in 2008, he should be able to find enough playing time and give you enough production to make him worth grabbing cheap or late.  Wow, Clint Barmes made a huge recovery in 2008 and 2009 from his tragic deer meat accident that derailed his career years ago.  Finally making good on his potential, his 23 HRs were by far a career high.  His batting average leaves something to be desired, and he may have to still compete for playing time should he slump.  If you draft him, you should also count on those SBs declining since he was caught stealing in 10 out of his 22 attempts in 2009.  Be careful here, and do not bid as though 20 HRs is assured.

The Rest : Bobby Crosby, Maicer Izturis, Luis Valbuena, Emilio Bonifacio, Cliff Pennington, Christian Guzman, Willie Bloomquist, Khalil Greene, Tommy Manzella, Ian Desmond, Alex Gonzalez, Juan Uribe, Yuniesky Betancourt, Brendan Harris, Cesar Izturis, Julio Lugo, Paul Janish

There are lots of names down here that are unpredictable.  Many of these names have some potential, but do not have assured playing time.  When you get this low on the depth chart at shortstop, concentrate on those players that will get the ABs.  You do not want to draft someone and depend on an injury to the starter for your player’s production to match your bid.  Ian Desmond should start the season with a full time job.  He has some pop in his bat, but is completely unproven.  Luis Valbuena still has to win a job, but showed that he can hit a bit, but his playing time is not certain. Tommy Manzella could wind up the starter in Houston.  He hit .299 in the last two seasons in the minors and can steal a base (but probably not a ton of them).  Playing time could be an issue for Macier Izturis, but he can hit, and should find enough ABs to help your team.  Do not expect a rebound from Khalil Greene.  He was never that great to begin with, and his mental issues could resurface at any time.  The Cardinals wanted to go with Julio Lugo instead.  That should tell you all you need to know.