Date: 27 Jan 2010 Comments: 0

Published by Keith Giordano in: Author-Keith Draft Prep Player Analysis Player Profile

Aramis Ramirez has been listed near the top of most fantasy baseball rankings at third base for years.  While he has never been at the top of the list, his abilities have justified taking him in fantasy baseball drafts after the elite options are gone.  While this may change for the 2010 season, do not let him slip too far.  While fantasy GMs will still be justified to take him after the elite options are gone this year, it is likely that he will last longer than usual due to his sub-par 2009.

Early Career

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It may seem like Ramirez has been around forever.  In fact, for the majority of GMs, Ramirez will have been among the top of the third base rankings the entire time they have been playing fantasy baseball.  However, he will turn just 32 in the 2010 season.  After three seasons of part time play for the Pirates in 1998-2000, Aramis hit the big time in 2001 posting a .300-34-112 line in 603 ABs.  While he did take a step backward in 2002 when he hit only 18 HR in 522 ABs with a .234 BA, good fortune smiled on him when he was traded to the Chicago Cubs in the 2003 season.

After leaving Pittsburgh for a team that actually takes baseball seriously, Ramirez’ career took off for real.  From 2004-2008 Ramirez did not hit under .288, nor did he hit under 26 home runs for any single season.  In fact, in the first three full seasons playing for the Cubbies, he hit over 30 HRs in each year, setting a new career high twice during that span.  If you take a look at his power while adjusting for ABs, you will find that Aramis has been fairly consistent throughout his career.

	AB	HR	AB/HR	BA
2008	554	27	20.5	.288
2007	506	26	19.5	.310
2006	594	38	15.6	.291
2005	463	31	14.9	.302
2004	547	36	15.2	.318
2003	607	27	22.5	.272
2002	522	18	29.0	.234
2001	603	34	17.7	.300

Skeptics will point to the fact that his AB/HR rate dropped from 2005-2008, but the reality of the situation is that his rate still places him among the best at the third base position.  With good power, a batting average that is well above average, and over 100 RBI in 6 out of 8 of those seasons, Aramis’ high draft position was well deserved.  Furthermore, in 2001-2008 (the time since he became a full time player barring 2009), note that he stayed fairly healthy, logging only one season with under 500 ABs.

Certain websites I have read refer to the fact that he has played in over 150 games in only 3 seasons, but the fact is that in only one season has he lost enough time to decrease his value in a significant fashion.  His BB/9 Rate has gotten better over his career, and his K/9 rate has ticked up only slightly.  Overall, this track record is one of a hitter that has good plate discipline, good power, good health, and the ability to put up numbers (which while not spectacular) can greatly help your fantasy baseball team.

2009

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In 2009, Aramis Ramirez met with his first serious loss of playing time due to injury since becoming a full-time player.  If you owned him last season, this could sour you on his value for the 2010 fantasy baseball season.  However, if you look closer, you should be even more enamored by his numbers.  Ramirez posted a .317 BA (the second highest of his career), 15 HR, and 65 RBI in only 306 ABs.  Once you do the math, you will see that 2009 was among his best seasons if you adjust for the lack of playing time.  His AB/HR rate was 20.4, his RBI count was still over 100 pro-rating it over a full season, and his OBP was at a career high.  Even his BB/K rate ticked up in this 2009.

These are not signs of a player in decline.  In fact, I find it impressive that despite losing so much playing time to a dislocated shoulder, his power remained largely unaffected, as did his secondary statistics.  With an entire off-season to recover, you can expect that his stats will make a rebound to the levels he has established over the last many seasons.

Fantasy Implications

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This is the year to grab Aramis Ramirez.  In keeper leagues, it is possible that he will be available for the first time in many seasons.  Fantasy GMs that are just casually looking at their fantasy magazines will see that he was hurt, and only hit 15 HRs.  You, on the other hand, know that his AB/HR rate, and other stats did not decline at all.  Fantasy baseball is all about value.  Value is all about perception.  The perception which his 2009 stat-line gives to the casual observer is that his power dropped drastically, and that he was unable to stay healthy.  This should lead to a drop in his price in 2010 fantasy baseball auctions, or position in 2010 fantasy baseball drafts.  Jump on him if you can.

Since you are reading this, you are NOT the casual fantasy baseball observer, and you realize that the steady production should pick up right where it left off.  The batting average is certainly not going anywhere, the power has remained above average, and his potential to drive in 100 runs is high.  He could easily put up a season similar to Ryan Zimmerman or Evan Longoria, or Kevin Youkilis at a much lower price.  If he is available on your draft board late (which he probably will be), do not hesitate to draft him understanding that the decline in his numbers is only on the surface.