Date: 29 Jan 2010 Comments: 3 so far

Published by Keith Giordano in: Author-Keith Draft Prep Player Analysis

Every fantasy baseball keeper league team has two types of keepers.  There are those that are no brainers: studs that are just too valuable to drop.  Then there are the bubble players: those players who are good and have upside, but the price has to be right in order to protect them.  Depending on your league rules and how expensive keepers are in your league, this could set the tone for a successful (or disappointing) season.  This decision cannot be made solely on price.  Each GM has to make sure that his team is well-rounded enough to compete in all the scoring categories, and at all positions.  For the purposes of this article, we are going to focus the bubble protects, specifically on their price.  The no-brainers are obvious, and how well-rounded your protect list is can best be decided by you.

Catcher

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Jorge Posada (NYY) –  There is no question that he is getting up there in age.  He also has recent injury history that makes him a risk.  However he will remain a starter on one of the most powerful offensive lineups in the league.  There are just better options that could break through and remain better for longer than Posada.  I would rather focus my attention on a longer-term option.  They will also likely be cheaper.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $12

Miguel Montero (ARI) –  I had Montero on my team last season, and he was a pleasure.  In 234 second-half ABs, Montero hit 11 HR with 40 RBI and a .316 batting average.  While many of your competition will focus on the big-hype Matt Wieters, if you can keep Montero for the right price, he could be a gem.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $14

Mike Napoli (LAA) -  This guy is a tease.  In the last two seasons, he has hit 40 home runs in only 609 ABs.  While this number is about a full season of ABs for the normal position player, as we know, catchers average closer to 500.  Either way, the power Napoli offers cannot be denied.  A “full” season for him of 500 ABs would probably result in 30+ HRs.  Napoli has also seemed to get his batting average up to acceptable levels (though his BABIP has risen every season of his career).  The problem with Napoli is that he just doesn’t play enough to get a full season.  Mike Scioscia likes to mix it up behind the plate, perhaps due to Napoli’s below-average defense.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $13

Russell Martin (LAD) –  What was once a no-brain protect has dropped dramatically in value.  Once, he was the best power/speed option at the position (and he still may be).  However, an across the board drop in all scoring categories for a second straight season should keep the bidding on Martin low.  He could easily have a resurgence in 2010, but don’t pay to keep him as though it is certain.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $9

Matt Wieters (BAL) - Don’t overpay for the hype.  He certainly can hit.  He has some power.  But he is still very young, and the power that would make him the keeper we are looking for may take some time to develop.  Keep in mind how long it took for Joe Mauer to find his pop.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $11

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First Base

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Paul Konerko (CWS) –  Don’t expect a rebound to his previous power and batting average levels.  For that matter, don’t pay for his name.  His line-drive rate has dropped significantly, his fly-ball rate was a career high in 2009, and his RBIs have been very disappointing over the last two seasons.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $10

Carlos Pena (TB) –  Prodigious power, a low batting average.  Pena has hit 46, 31,39 home runs respectively in the last three seasons.  Even more impressive is that he did so in under 500 ABs in each season.  That batting average, however, has gone from good, to bad, to awful, in those three seasons as well.  There is some hope of recovery since Pena’s BABIP in 2009 was .253.  That is over 50 points lower than in 2007 and 2008, and over 100 points lower than in 2006.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $19

Lance Berkman (HOU) –  I have owned Berkman in two different keeper leagues over the last several seasons.  Last season I had enough.  I traded him away in both leagues, and am not looking back.  It is not that I don’t believe he can be valuable, because he still can.  What is frustrating is not being able to predict what kind of season he will have.  His power in the first half of 2009 was great, hitting 18 HRs.  Yet for the second season, his second half saw his fantasy value tank.  He is just too inconsistent.  Not to mention, his supporting cast is not as strong as it used to be in his glory days.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $23

Billy Butler (KC) –  If you are going to keep a player based on upside rather than proven production, do so at one of the thiner positions where a true breakout will be much more valuable.  Billy Butler is a nice player, and could hit .300 and approach 30 home runs in 2010.  However, he has not proven to be worthy of reaching for, and certainly not paying top dollar for.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $13

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Second Base

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Dan Uggla (FLA) –  At second base, there are no-brainers and there are non-protects.  There are very few “bubble guys”.  Uggla will be seen in many leagues to be a no-brain protect.  He is, after all, a great source of power for a middle infielder.  The batting average is a strike against him, but so long as you aren’t paying the same price for him as for the elite at the position, you should keep him.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $23

Gordon Beckham (CWS) –  Now switching to second base for the 2010 season, Beckham sees added fantasy value.  With power potential and speed enough to steal bases, Beckham will be overpriced in auctions based on his upside.  If you have him in a keeper league and can keep him for a low price, don’t even think about letting him go.  You will not get him back for anywhere near the single digit price you probably have him for.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $19

Ben Zobrist (TB) –  I like this kid.  His numbers are on the upswing and he offers production in at least 4 of the 5 scoring categories.  However, like all players, it is safer to pay top dollar after establishing a track record for more than one season.  Bump his value up a couple of dollars if the 13 games he played at shortstop in 2009 qualifies him in your league.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $21

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Third Base

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Chone Figgins (SEA) –  The stolen bases are nice.  But going from the Angels to the Mariners hurts Figgy’s value.  It remains to be seen where he will bat in the order (my guess is second), and may struggle to reach 100 runs in 2010.  He offers little power (even less now at Safeco) and his batting average is all over the map from one season to another.  At best a three category contributor.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $21

Pablo Sandoval (SF) –  I nearly didn’t put him in this “bubble” category because it is common knowledge that this kid can rake.  I would keep him in a heartbeat, and expect good power with a very good batting average.  On the weak hitting Giants, he will probably hit in the heart of the order.  MAX PROTECT PRICE $25

Ian Stewart (COL) –  I am not a fan of keeping young players who’s power makes them attractive while their batting average is low.  It is that kind of player that goes for too much bid money, and could wind up losing playing time.  Stewart falls into that category.  He was not a high batting average guy in the minors, and there is no reason to believe that he will just become one in the big leagues.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $12

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Shortstop

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Jason Bartlett (TB) –  Perhaps the biggest (if not most unexpected) fantasy baseball breakout of 2009, Bartlett is sure to be one of the tougher decisions for fantasy owners for 2010.  The batting average was huge at .320 and the power just kept coming to the tune of 14 HRs.  You can expect the batting average to correct a bit based on his BABIP, and the power was just too out of nowhere to believe in entirely.  However, Bartlett can be seen as an option worth of protecting since he will likely be the most valuable shortstop on the board if dropped.  Also worthy of note is that he will lead off should Carl Crawford be traded as is widely speculated.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $21

Alexei Ramirez (CWS) –  Ramirez is exactly the reason that you have to contain your expectations when paying for unproven young talent.  Alexi failed to meet the marks he set in 2008 during his second season in 4 out of the 5 categories despite logging 60 more ABs in 2009.  The potential is still there for a nice 5-category season, but remember that he is not some 23 year old.  He will be 29 this year.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $18

Elvis Andrus (TEX) –  Moving Michael Young to third base to make room for Andrus, the Rangers must expect big things from him to hand the starting job over to a 20 year old.  He made good on his first year in the bigs, and provided good fantasy value to his owners.  His batting average may not develop past his current mediocre level for another couple of seasons, but Andrus should be a fairly reliable option.  Now that Julio Borbon has been anointed the starter in center, thoughts of Andrus leading off should be over.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $14

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Outfield

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Torii Hunter (LAA) –  He is a lock for good, but not great production in all five categories.  That makes him dependable.  It also makes his ceiling fairly limited.  While potential breakouts such as Adam Jones and Andrew McCutchen will be bid up by GMs looking for the next big thing, Hunter will just continue giving good low-profile value.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $20

Chris Coghlan (FLA) –  Man, I hope you guys don’t overpay for Coghlan.  His numbers show that the batting average will remain high, but there will probably be little else to woo fantasy owners.  Not much power, not much speed (though the SB number could tick up slightly), and the loss of infield qualification dictates that you not go overboard for the 2009 N.L. ROY.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $11

Nyjer Morgan (WAS) –  The speedster successfully escaped Pittsburgh and ran wild once arriving in Washington.  Again, we are not talking about a youngster, as it took a good while for Morgan to break into the bigs and hold a spot there.  He is fast and can hit for average, however, and can help lock in a nice finish for your team in the stolen base category.  If your list of protects is studly, or slanted greatly towards power, pay an extra dollar or two for his services.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $17

Nate McLouth (ATL) –  He took a step back from his 2008 campaign, but 2009 still saw McLouth approach the 20-20 mark.  His ground ball rate has gone up almost 10% in the last two seasons, but his OBP remained constant.  While he may not take the step forward we were hoping for in 2009, he is still a fine source of power and speed.  Just think 2nd or 3rd outfielder, not 1st or 2nd.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $16

Raul Ibanez (PHI) –  Oh, what a disappointment the second half of 2009 was.  After crushing the ball and hitting 22 HRs with a .309 BA in the first half, the .238 batting average with 12 HRs in the second was a letdown.  Ibanez is old, and he never showed the type of power that he did in the first half of 2009.  Do not count on it continuing.  If you have him dirt cheap keep him, but there are better options out there with higher upside.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $11

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Starting Pitchers

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Johan Santana (NYM) –  I put him here in case there was some doubt in your mind that he should be protected.  He should be, and as a top pitcher.  Monitor his health up until the last moment you have to turn in your protects.  But if you hear no bad news, assume all is well and pay what you have to.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $30

Cole Hamels (PHI) –  I am a believer that Hamels just had an off season.  He works off his fastball with one of the best change-ups in the game.  His K/9 rate was almost unchanged from his very good 2008, as was his BB/9 rate.  The main difference in his numbers was his BABIP, which was 36 points higher than 2007 and 55 points higher than in 2008.  If you have him at top tier price, you can probably let him go and get him back cheaper in the auction.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $26

Javier Vazquez (NYY) –  With the season Vazquez had in 2009, many GMs will just automatically keep Vazquez.  Personally, I would be looking to trade him to someone else.  The change back to the American League and a hitter’s ballpark is going to crush his ratios, and make anyone who pays top dollar for him very sorry.  The good news is that since his 2009 was so much better than expected, you probably have him at a fairly cheap price.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $16

Yovani Gallardo (MIL) –  The touted youngster put up a nice season in 2009, which is sure to make fantasy GMs drool in anticipation of drafting him.  However, he suffers from a common affliction among young pitchers, which is a tendency to walk batters.  He is worth keeping at a moderate price, but know if you let him go, it will cost you to get him back.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $18

Tommy Hanson (ATL) –  The youngster posted a great stat-line in his first taste of the big leagues.  A 2.89 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP is nothing to sneeze at.  But neither is the fact that he has never thrown more innings during a season than he did in 2009 (194 IN between AAA and MLB).  To me, that is not enough of a sample size to pay for the hype that surrounds such a player.  Young pitchers are the most unpredictable commodity in fantasy baseball, and you should realize that before keeping such an unproven player.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $13

Ubaldo Jimenez (COL) –  Jimenez took a nice step forward in 2009, but that still leaves a ways to go.  I mean, he went from a 1.44 WHIP to a 1.23 WHIP.  Better?  Yes.  Worthy of paying as an elite pitcher?  No.  The potential is there for Jimenez to improve further, but there are options that have better control out there.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $16

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Closers

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Before we get into specific cases of closers, note that this is the fantasy baseball position that changes most often, and quickest.  Be sure to keep up with it by using our “Closer Report“.

Francisco Cordero (CIN) –  I am not a huge fan of closers that put up a high WHIP, and Cordero is one of these.  It is hard to argue with the results, since he has posted at least 22 saves in every season since 2004.  Yet in that same time span his WHIP has only been under 1.29 once.  That says to me that it will not take much decline for him to lose his job.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $18

Ryan Franklin (STL) –  Franklin is not some fireballing young kid that took the team by storm.  Instead, he was the lesser of the evils available in the Cardinal bullpen in 2009.  Sure, he came through with one of his better seasons, but with a track record of WHIP numbers as likely to be over 1.4 as under 1.2, Franklin had better be at the right price if you intend to protect him.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $13

Rafael Soriano (TB) –  The new closer for the Rays yanked the job away from Mike Gonzalez in Atlanta last season.  His second half was significantly worse than his first, yet he has the makeup of a closer and his secondary numbers point to success.  Injury is a risk with his history, and he also has some competition in the deep Ray’s pen if he should stumble.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $19