Date: 2 Feb 2010 Comments: 0

Published by Keith Giordano in: Author-Keith Draft Prep Player Analysis Player Profile

Everyone wants to find the next big thing.  Winning your fantasy baseball league is great.  Winning your fantasy league and finding the next fantasy baseball stud is awesome.  Keeper league members are especially excited about drafting a breakout player for a bargain price (THAT is sweeeeeet).  However, when you are preparing for your fantasy draft, and you are looking for the potential breakouts, focus on what is WRONG with the player you are scouting.  If you focus on what is great about them, you can develop a man-crush and wind up paying too much for their services based on upside.  View each player with skeptisism, and realize that in most of these cases the player in question has probably not provided enough of a sample size to be viewed as a sure thing.  After all….. if you pay for that player in your fantasy baseball draft or auction as if the player is assured of the production you are hoping for, he is no longer a bargain.  Carlos Gonzalez is one of these players that has the potential to break-out in 2010, but that is far from certain.

Minor League Career

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Gonzalez has shown decent power at every stop along his minor league career, but it is only recently that he has shown the ability to take the free pass.  Also, while Gonzalez does have speed, his success rate in the minors leaves something to be desired.  In his first two major stints in the minors (2006- DBacks A+, 2007 DBacks AA) his BB/K rate was miserable at .29 and .31, respectively.  In each season, the sample size of at-bats was over 400.  To be fair, his batting average during these two seasons was not an issue, as he hit .300 and then .286.  Near the end of the 2007 season, Gonzalez was traded to the Athletics, and spend a short amount of time (10 games) playing for their AAA team.  It was at this point that something changed in his game.

Some good coach in their organization must have preached the value of taking a walk, because in that ten game stretch his BB/K rate was 1.0.  The next season playing for that same team, he logged 173 ABs, and while his walk rate was not as high as 1.0, he did manage to improve it from his former .30ish level to .46.  Clearly, this excited the A’s and they gave him a nice long cuppa coffee in 2008.  Overwhelmed in his first big league opportunity, his BB/K rate hit a new low over his 302 ABs (.16).  Another trade later, and Gonzalez found himself in Colorado’s AAA affiliate.  He continued his improvement to post a .69 BB/K rate in 223 ABs, and that was all the Rockies needed to see.  He was promoted to the show, and this time found his stroke after just a short period.

2009

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It is easy to just look at the scoring categories and see that Gonzalez showed both power and speed with a good batting average.  Based on that alone, plenty of fantasy baseball GMs will pay huge dollars for the potential of further progress.  However, that is actually not where the story is.  If we continue looking at the secondary stats, we find that Gonzalez could well be on his way to being WORTH all those dollars that are going to be spent on him.

In that first month of 2009 especially, things looked bleak.  He was called up in June, and in that month he recorded a .23 BB/K.  In other words, he once again reverted to his old bad habits when faced with better pitching.  Someone must have sat him down and had a talk, because in July that rate rose back up to .67.  There is another number that I find encouraging for Gonzalez.  His percentage of balls swung at outside the strike-zone went down 2% from his 2008 major league campaign to that in 2009.  His contact rate went up 3%, and top that off with a 6% increase in his line-drive rate.  These are all signs that real progress being made by a young talent that is coming into his own.  The results are clear.  In the second half of the season, Gonzalez posted a .320 batting average with an OPS of .992.

Warning Signs

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The warnings signs here are primarily that when struggling Gonzalez tends to revert back to his free-swinging ways.  If you do chose to invest in this talent, keep a close watch on his BB/K rate.  If it begins to sink, it is time to start shopping him.  I have also read (and obviously have no personal knowledge about) that his work ethic and attitude have drawn criticism.  Perhaps the fact that listening to his coaches with regard to being selective at the plate has proven to work, will improve that.  Personally, I feel that since he is going to start regardless of attitude, that it is irrelevant.  I mean, Gary Sheffield and Barry Bonds were notorious dicks, and they were fantasy studs for years.

Fantasy Implications

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The kid is only 25 this season, and could easily take the next step in 2010.  It appears as though the plate discipline that he was lacking is coming around, and that could lead to the 5-tool player that all fantasy GMs want.  With a full-time job assured in 2010, he will get a full season to prove himself.  I expect him to take another step forward.  The Rockies like to run, so the speed should be an asset, and the power he showed in the second half of the season is real.  Since his numbers were good, but not eye-popping, it is possible that he could go in snake drafts after Adam Jones, but given the choice between the two, Gonzalez would be my choice.  I would place his top fantasy baseball auction value at $19, and expect a season of .278, 20 HR, 72 RBI, 82 R, 19 SB, 520 ABs.