Date: 9 Feb 2010 Comments: 2 so far

Published by Keith Giordano in: Author-Keith Draft Prep Player Analysis

You would be surprised what players certain sources call “sleepers” in their fantasy baseball draft preparation.  Players that every fantasy GM knows, former fantasy studs that had an off-season, or players that have already been hyped like “The Who” playing at the Super Bowl, are listed as sleepers (and many perform as poorly as The Who did).  How in the world are players like this supposed to be under the radar of your competition?  I receive email regularly in which smart fantasy baseball GMs are looking for a sleeper that is lower profile than, say, Gordon Beckham or Ben Zobrist.  These guys just aren’t sleepers.  They are players that only the least prepared GMs will not know of, and it is likely that players such as that will actually be overpriced in your draft or auction.  A true sleeper (which is hard to find in these days of the internet) is a player that has the potential to contribute significant production while being unknown enough to keep their price at your auction or draft low.  So let’s look at a few guys that you can take in your draft and make your competition say, “Wait…. Who is that?”

Michael Brantley  (OF – CLE) –  Brantley has recently been announced as the frontrunner for the Indians left field starting job.  There is good reason for this, and for you to know his name when your fantasy baseball draft or auction rolls around.  When your competition looks at their fantasy baseball magazines (most of them waiting until the week before the draft to do so), they are going to see a snapshot of his production that does not match up with his skills.  In 2009 Brantley recorded 112 ABs with no power at all, 4 SBs, a .313 batting average, and 19 Ks compared to 8 BBs.  The only number in this line that actually can be expected to continue is the batting average.  That K rate (17.0%) is substantially higher than what he consistently produced in the minors, and the BB/9 rate (6.6%) is significantly lower.  In the minors, Brantley’s worst BB rate was 10.4% and ranged up to 13.0%.  The K rate he produced in the minors was never higher than 13.4% in 2007, and was as low as 6.4% in 2008.  In his entire minor league career, he never recorded an OBP that was lower than .350 in any stop.

It is natural, in fact it is common, for minor leaguers that get the call to the bigs to struggle in their first shot at the best pitchers in the world.  However, Brantley has shown that he understands the strike zone, and even in his short big league stint put up a 91.4% contact rate.  These stats are very encouraging.  While he will not hit for power, his speed is for real as shown by his 46 SBs in AAA during the 2009 season.  His success rate was equally impressive as he was only caught stealing 5 times.  If he hits well this spring and secures that starting job, look for him to put up speed numbers that can help your team well beyond the cost that it will take to land him in your draft.

Jason Heyward  (OF – ATL) –  Here is a name that the casual fantasy baseball GM may miss entirely.  With no major league stats to look at, it takes an informed GM to know that Heyward is one of the best minor league prospects in the game.  Bobby Cox recently stated that Heyward could break camp with the big club, and this would be consistent with his fast rise through the minor league system.  In 2008, Heyward started the season in A-ball with 189 ABs where he hit 11 HRs and 15 SBs, with a .323 BA, a .388 OBP, and a .66 BB/K rate in 449 ABs.  In 2009 he started the season in A+ ball, where his excellent production continued, posting a line of 10 HR and 4 SBs, with a .296 BA, a .360 OBP, and a BB/K rate of .70 in 189 ABs.  After that he was promoted to the AA level, and he did not slow down at all.  In 162 ABs at that level, the power continued with 7 HRs, the speed continued with 5 SBs, the average continued at .352, and his improvement to his BB/K rate took a jump up to 1.47 in 162 ABs.

All of these signs show a player that understands the strike zone, has the power to contribute at the major league level, and can steal a base or two in the process.  As a low-profile player with no major league stats to look at, he could be cheap enough to be the fantasy baseball sleeper that every team is looking for.  Keep track of this situation in the spring, as Heyward only has to beat out Matt Diaz to win a significant amount of playing time in 2010.  Since Diaz tends to struggle versus right-handed pitching, Heyward forcing his way into the picture is a good gamble.  On a side note, this kid is huge at 6′4″ and could develop significantly more power going forward.

Everth Cabrera  (SS – SD) –  This sleeper is a little higher-profile than the first two since he recorded 377 ABs with the Padres in 2009.  However, the stat line that he produced in that time was below what Cabrera is capable of, and some of the numbers he posted could even scare away some GMs.  Needless to say, any sleeper at shortstop is worthy of your attention and consideration.  Cabrera does have a few flaws in his game.  His K rate is too high, and his BB rate is too low.  Yet the potential is there for Cabrera to completely blow away the numbers he posted in 2009.

Firstly, the starting job is his.  There is no question that barring injury Cabrera will be a full-time starter in 2010.  Secondly, the numbers that he posted in his short minor league career point to abilities that he did not show in 2009.  While other GMs are focused on his .255 BA in 2009, you should focus on the fact that he had only 50 ABs above A-Ball before being called up to the big leagues.  In his last “full” season in the minors (Rockies-A), Cabrera’s BB/9 rate was actually lower than it was in the big leagues, and while his K rate was higher, it was in the same ballpark as his stint in the bigs.  It is also worthy of note that while that .255 BA from 2009 was not desirable, his OBP was .342 which is very respectable (also, his BABIP during his big league ABs was the lower than any stint in his minor league career).

While other GMs focus on the fact that Cabrera only stole 25 bases while being caught 8 times in 2009, you should focus on the fact that Cabrera stole 73 bases in the minors during the 2008 season and was caught only 16 times.  He has speed to burn.  Oh, and did I mention that this kid is only 23 years old?  Sure, his supporting cast and ballpark are working against his power, RBI, and runs scored.  Yet when talking about a speedster, you are looking for help in the SB and BA category, both of which Cabrera could offer your team for a fraction of the price that a Ryan Theriot or Asdrubal Cabrera will cost.  Finding a sleeper in the outfield is great, as Brantley and Heyward could be.  However, finding a sleeper at a thinner position such as shortstop is what can win you a league.  Follow Everth’s progress this spring, and hope that he doesn’t steal so many bases that his low-profile status is blown.