Date: 11 Feb 2010 Comments: 121 so far

Published by Keith Giordano in: Author-Keith Draft Prep Player Analysis Player Profile

It is not so hard to see why Johnny Damon is having a hard time finding the contract he wants this off-season.  On the surface, he looks like a player that teams would want.  Sure, he is a winner.  And yes, he did hit 24 home runs in 2009.  However, the secondary numbers point to a player in decline for some time now.  Since MLB GMs have their “people” that check out those secondary stats, most of the teams out there know this.  You should know about it too if you are thinking of drafting or (shudder) protecting Damon in your keeper league.  So what will Damon’s 2010 fantasy value be?  How much should you be willing to spend on him in your fantasy baseball auction?  If you are looking at Damon to be more than a 3rd outfielder, beware.

Recent Career

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There is a very large sample size to look at for Johnny Damon.  Of course, this is also another way of saying that he is getting old.  He has had at least 472 ABs in every season since 1996, so there can be no denying that he is durable.  That is probably the best thing that I can say about him.  If you draft him (and he has found a starting job somewhere) he will get you those 500 ABs that you must have.  For years Damon has been a nice blend of power and speed, though he has rarely been able to put all the pieces together in the same season.  He has gone 20-20 only once in his career.  In fact, he has hit 20 or more home runs only in only 3 seasons.  Bottom line, when you have drafted Damon over the last decade, you felt safe that you would receive 15ish HRs, with 25ish SBs, 100 runs, and a batting average that would help your fantasy team.

Secondary Numbers

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Damon has seen a steady increase in his BB rate over the last many seasons.  From 2001-2008, his BB rate has increased from 8.5% to the  10.5% range.  This number reached a career high in 2009 when he posted a BB rate of 11.3%.  Of all the secondary numbers, this is the only one that I can find which says that he is getting better.  Rest assured, I am about to show you why this is a very minor number when put in context.  His K rate has also been in a steady rise.  Whereas in Boston he was able to keep that rate around 11%, that number immediately jumped to 14.3% when moving to New York, and reached a career high in 2009 at 17.8%.  The result has been a complete negation of the BB increase in his BB/K ratio.  In his Boston days that numbers was ABOVE .90 in three out of four seasons.  Since moving to New York, it has been BELOW .80 in three out of four seasons.  So while his BB rate increased, his K rate has increased significantly more.

After years of posting home run totals in the 10-20 range, Damon muscled up for 24 HR in 2009.  His ISO (isolated power) jumped to a career high of .207.  This number when compared to the large sample size of his career looks to be an outlier.  He has only one other season with an ISO over .172 (2006).  This is also confirmed by looking at Damon’s fly-ball rate which jumped over 8% in 2009.

More bad news.  His contact rates are down.  Since 2002, Damon has not recorded a lower contact rate than he did in 2009.  It has fallen 3.5% since posting an 88.0% rate in 2005.  He also swung at a career high percentage of balls outside of the strike zone in 2009 (his contact rate on those pitches was NOT a career high).  It is worth noting that his SBs in 2009 dropped to less than half what they had been in the previous three seasons.  Take that in context, however, as the power surge for Damon (as well as for the Yankees in general) may have put the red light on Damon.  Also, he was not caught stealing at all last year.  So this decrease could be a result of the team’s situation rather than a loss of speed on Damon’s part.

Fantasy Implications

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So what does this all mean to a fantasy GM?  Well, firstly it means that you should follow the lead of MLB GMs and be skeptical of Damon’s production for the 2010 fantasy baseball season.  His name makes him high profile, and there will definitely be GMs in your league that will expect the power to continue and the SBs to return.  The latest rumors have Damon close to signing with either the Tigers or the Braves.  Both of those teams play in ballparks that are significantly less friendly to hitters, so the power is likely to decline even more than if he stayed in New York.  Both of those teams have less potent offenses, so the runs scored and RBI are likely to decline.  I would expect the SBs to increase to their former levels (25-30 SBs) due to both of those facts.  However, if you were hoping to protect Damon and ride him for a 20-20 season, you are very likely to be disappointed.  The numbers point to a guy that is trying to add power to make up for declining secondary numbers that make him a less valuable player to a team (more MLB than fantasy-wise).  It definitely does not help that his defense is suspect, and his arm is almost non-exsitant.  Watch where he lands, and if he has a full time job locked up rate him as a serviceable OF that will play all season long.  That is a valuable commodity.  Just don’t pay for him as though he is a power/speed threat playing for the most powerful offense in the American League.  He just isn’t that player.  Pay no more than $16 in your auction.  2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections:  .288 BA, 14 HR, 66 RBI, 89 R, 26 SB in 569 AB.