Date: 17 Feb 2010 Comments: 58 so far

Published by Keith Giordano in: Author-Keith Draft Prep News Player Analysis

Ah!  Pitchers at catchers are reporting for several teams today, and within a few more days we will be hearing news of our fantasy baseball sleepers from all over the league.  In the mean time, here are some thoughts on some relevant names for the 2010 fantasy baseball season.

Matt Garza  (SP – TB) –  I like seeing his K/9 rate jump over 2 Ks to 8.38 in 2009.  His BAA also dropped to .236.  If he can shake the increase in his BB/9 rate, Garza could be one of the nicer sleepers for a breakout season in 2010.  The best part?  The fact that Garza won only 8 games in 2009 may keep the price low enough to make him a bargain.

Chien-Ming Wang  (SP – NYY) –  The fact that he won 19 games two straight years hides how mediocre an option Wang is for your fantasy team.  Plenty of fantasy GMs (and at least one MLB GM) will look right past the other numbers and focus on that wins total.  They will ignore the injuries that have held him to just 137 innings pitched over the last two seasons, they will ignore the incredibly poor K/9 rate he posts even in his healthy seasons (3.14 – 2006, 4.70 – 2007).  They will gloss over the fact that his WHIP in those healthy seasons was 1.31 and 1.29 respectively.  So, we have an injury prone pitcher who is a little too hittable, a little too wild, with a notable lack of dominance on the mound.  Is he an upgrade for the Nationals?  Sure, since their rotation was in such awful shape.  However the reality is that the fact he won 19 games for the Yankees twice is the only reason he is even on most fantasy GMs radar.  Do yourself a favor.  Cover his wins total up, and look at the rest of his numbers.  Now, what would you pay for THAT player?

Jair Jurrjens  (SP – ATL) –  An MRI recently showed that Jurrjens had no structural damage to his shoulder.  That is GREAT!  Jurrjens was very consistent in 2009, posting a sub 3.0 ERA in both the first and second half of the season.  He held batters to a .235 BA, and saw an increase in his K/9 rate over the second half of the season.  With a little more control, Jurrjens is a potential breakout starter in 2010.  This may be the last season you can get Jurrjens at a medium price.

Brandon Inge  (3B – DET) –  I am not a believer in Inge’s fantasy baseball value.  His batting average is routinely suspect, his power is mediocre at best, and seldom does he put together success with both in the same season.  His knees may be healthy, but coming off of a season where his HR production is way up, you know his price will be way up too.  When the bidding comes up on him, keep his .186 second half batting average in mind and stay away.

Carlos Zambrano  (SP – CHC) –  He has supposedly lost weight this off-season.  Now, that is normally just a side-note for a player.  However, for a player like Zambrano who’s biggest weakness is a lack of focus, this could be a turning point.  The perennial under-acheiver may finally be taking the job seriously, and may have realized the amount of commitment that is necessary for success at an elite level.  Bump his value up a bit if he early spring reports have him throwing well.

Jose Reyes  (SS – NYM) –  Early reports are that Reyes’ repaired hamstring is coming along nicely.  That doesn’t mean a damn thing, and you should know that.  His primary fantasy value is his legs.  A muscle in his leg was torn.  That means that this will be a concern every single day he plays for the season.  Any stolen base attempt could result in re-injuring it, costing him (potentially) the entire season.  Does he have the potential to be give your fantasy team first-round type production?  Sure.  Is it worth paying as if that production is assured?  No.  There are plenty of places to get speed, you don’t need to hop on the highest risk/reward bandwagon in 2010.

Brandon Lyon  (RP – HOU) –  Lyon is going to be behind other pitchers to start spring training due to a cyst in his shoulder that he had drained.  Uh oh.  His job security is among the lowest among closers in the league, and this is not the way to change that for the better.  He has limited success in his track record and Matt Lindstrom nipping at his heels.  While the Astros paid for him as though he was a good bet for their 9th inning duties, you should not.

Stephen Strasburg  (SP – WAS) –  The “phenom” is supposedly completely healthy after knee issues.  Strasburg also supposedly impressed during a brief throwing session.  He is one of the high upside starting pitchers for 2010.  He has also proven nothing at all at the big league level.  There is a learning curve at the big league level, especially when talking about pitchers.  Most of these phenoms do not have the success which the experts predict for years after reaching the show (if ever), and you should keep that in mind when bidding for him in 2010 fantasy baseball drafts or auctions.  Also keep in mind that David Price was last season’s Strasburg, and that didn’t work out the way his owners would have liked.

Daisuke Matsuzaka  (SP – BOS) –  Dice-K reported a little tightness in his back.  He may start spring training behind other pitchers.  This is more of a “watch” situation.  If he is throwing well in late in the spring, leave your sheets unchanged.  2009 was almost a lost season for Dice-K, as he apparently had a spring training injury that was never taken care of, affecting him all season.  He could be a nice rebound candidate for 2010.