Date: 18 Feb 2010 Comments: 24 so far

Published by Keith Giordano in: Author-Keith Draft Prep Player Analysis

There are several ways for a fantasy baseball manager to find bargains in a draft or auction.  The first one is to target the younger players that have yet to prove themselves as fantasy assets at the major league level.  Players such as Matt LaPorta or Neftali Feliz would fall into this category.  They could be great, they could be busts.  All that is certain is that they haven’t succeed yet, and that keeps their price and profile low enough to make them potential bargains.  The second way is to just get purely lucky by drafting a player who happens to have a career year out of nowhere (Aaron Hill, Jason Bartlett).  The third way is to target those players who have had success at the major league level, but due to injury or decline due to other factors have seen their price plummet in a short time span.  It is this third group that is the safest for you to invest, since given health most of these players will sustain a certain amount of rebound.  The question is who are the best bets to make the biggest recovery?  Let’s take a look at some…

Carlos Quentin  (OF – CWS) –  The knock on Quentin for a long time has been the fact that he is injury prone.  After his breakout season in 2008, he showed why fantasy baseball owners hesitate to pay full price for that type of player.  Losing much of the 2009 season to wrist and heel injuries, Quentin saw his numbers drop.  However, if you are willing to gamble that he will stay healthy in 2010, his fantasy baseball value should make a large recovery.  His power remained intact, holding a 16.7 AB/HR rate in 2009.  This is only 3 ABs per home run fewer than in 2008.  Even going back to his minor league career, he has been a strong OBP player with an excellent K/BB ratio.  With the skills he brings to the table, it is only the chance of more injury that keeps his price low.  2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections:  .282 BA, 34 HR, 102 RBI, 100 R, 4 SBs, 505 ABs

Grady Sizemore  (OF – CLE) –  Grady Sizemore was my #1 ranked fantasy baseball outfielder going into the 2009 season.  That is not too hard to believe after he put up a 30-30 season in 2008.  However, the fact that the Indians are pathetic and injuries he suffered reduced that power/speed combo to a 18-13 line.  Now join me for this next part….. YIPEEEE!!!!  Grady Sizemore’s value as not been lower in years, and in all likelyhood will not be this low for years more to come.  In my keeper leagues, he has been untouchable…. until now.  When his names comes up in your fantasy baseball auction, call out, “multiple surgeries”, and then bid $1 more.  Is there risk the injury resurfaces?  Sure.  Is 30-30 upside worth that risk?  Yes, especially for those of you in fantasy baseball keeper leagues.  Sizemore is only 28 this year, and cannot be written off after one sub-par season.  2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections: .273 BA, 25 HR, 92 RBI, 90 R, 28 SB, 559 AB.

Troy Glaus  (3B/1B – ATL) –  Remember him?  I’m not sure if Glaus qualifies as a fantasy baseball sleeper since most everyone knows who he is.  However, he is definitely a candidate for a major rebound after only managing 29 ABs in the 2009 season.  Now make sure you read that correctly.  A rebound, not a rebirth.  You can expect that the power will return now that his shoulder is healthy.  You can also expect his batting average to still remain a liability to your team.   He is slated to be a starter, however, since his numbers were non-existant in 2009, he is just the type of player that you can slip by your competition very late or very cheap.  Even though he has been less of an asset than he was early in his career, his K/BB ratio is right where it has been for years.  Now a first baseman, the risk of injury is (slightly) lower, but keep in mind it is still there.  Do not pay as though he is going to hit the same 28 HRs he did in 2008, but don’t kid yourself.  If he is healthy, he has value.  2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections:  .252 BA, 22 HR, 88 RBI, 79 R, 3 SB, 485 AB.

Aramis Ramirez  (3B – CHC) –  Ranked near the top of third base cheat sheets for years, Aramis Ramirez was held to just 306 ABs in 2009, he should be cheaper than he has been since 2002.  Yet when you look at his numbers on a per at-bat basis, his home run rate and run production was right where it should be.  Top that off with his highest batting average since 2004, and you aren’t going to get much better numbers from a half-season.  The progress he has made in his K/BB ratio is noticeable, and his OBP has risen for three straight seasons.  Take the discount that will come this year and expect a return to his former level. 2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections:  .301 BA, 29 HR, 106 RBI, 99 R, 1 SB, 528 AB.

Jake Peavy  (SP – CWS) –  Jake Peavy has been ranked among the elite starting pitchers since his breakout season in 2004.  An ankle injury derailed his 2009 campaign.  Read that again…. “an ankle injury”.  This is not a case where surgery was done to fix an elbow or shoulder, which means that Peavy’s arm is just fine.  Perhaps you competition will only see the reduced innings in 2009 and not bother to check what Peavy was suffering from.  Pile on top of that the change from the National League to the American, and his change to a pitcher-friendly ballpark to one that favors hitters, and his price could drop even further.  If this proves to be the case during your draft, you will most likely be able to steal him for less or later than he has gone for years.  I would agree with critics that Peavy’s ERA will likely take a hit with the change of league and ballpark, however his BAA has remained consistently excellent throughout his career, and his WHIP hasn’t been above 1.23 since 2003, so the increase will likely be small.  Whatever value he loses due to the rise in ERA will likely be offset by the increased number of wins he will receive now that he is off of the lowly Padres.  2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections:  17 W, 3.25 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 185 K, 210 IN