Date: 18 Mar 2010 Comments: 2 so far

Published by Mike D in: Author-MikeD Draft Prep News Player Analysis

In an article about Jason Bartlett earlier this off-season, I pointed out that if the Rays traded Carl Crawford to free up money, Bartlett would become the leadoff hitter on a daily basis, greatly increasing his value. The Rays did not trade Crawford, but it appears that Bartlett will hit first in the Rays order with Crawford hitting behind him, which is the best of both worlds for Bartlett owners.

Bartlett achieved his career year on 500 at-bats, but will have 20% more at-bats in 2010. The cumulative categories (Home runs, stolen bases, RBIs and runs) can only be positively affected by 100 more at-bats. Even with a slight regression in production per at-bat, last year’s numbers are more than achievable; they can be exceeded. Let’s look at how 600 at-bats in the leadoff position should affect Bartlett’s 2010 numbers.

Home Runs
No number was more of a breakout last year for Bartlett than his home run total in 2009. He hit 14 long-balls, nine more than his previous best for a season. Still, his relatively high total of home runs last season works out to just one home run every 36 at-bats. That’s not exactly Babe Ruth or Ralph Kiner. Even if Bartlett regresses to just one home run per 50 at-bats, in a 600 at-bat season, he still hits 12 home runs, just two shy of that breakout total of 14. To put it in perspective, that’s basically one home run every two weeks. If he cracks two in one series, he doesn’t have to hit one for another month. Bartlett can handle that. The Bartlett owner-to-be isn’t exactly buying him for his power anyway. In fact, the home run jump that seems unsustainable, might be scaring him off. But as we can see, the extra at-bats cushion the risk of a return to a four or five home run season.

Stolen Bases
This category is a double bonus. Whereas home runs is a category in which Bartlett’s extra at-bats mitigate risk, stolen bases gets two serious bumps from this move. First, where most of the experts are predicting around 30 stolen bases on about 500 at-bats, we can now update that number. Adding 20 percent to 30 is easy.  So is 36 the new stolen base number? The Sporting News™ is the only fantasy baseball publication I use that has predicted 600 at-bats and get this, they predict 35 stolen bases.

But there’s another difference that adds value beyond the 20 percent already tacked on. Batting toward the bottom of the order doesn’t always lend to running situations. The leadoff spot is designed around it. So, related to stolen bases, Bartlett isn’t just receiving more at-bats, he’s receiving a higher quality of at-bat too. A 40 stolen base season is well within reach.

Runs
The same two positives that will affect stolen bases will have a similarly positive impact on the runs category. The 20 percent added to last year’s total(90 runs) will add 18, to bring the projection to 108 runs. That’s a huge number. Remember the aforementioned Sporting News with the 600 at-bat Bartlett line? They project 111 runs scored. Add to it that when batting near the bottom of the order, Bartlett was often stranded by lesser hitters.

If Carl Crawford and the rest of the heart of the order had a chance to drive him in, you could be sure there would be a few outs on the board already. But now Bartlett will always, always be followed by the best on the team. The one hitter is driven in by the three and four hitters a hell of a lot more than the eight hitter. Stolen bases and runs stand to receive the largest jump and with all these opportunities, 110 runs suddenly seems like the right floor. If this Tampa offense cranks away this season, Bartlett could end up 5 – 15 runs higher than that.

Runs Batted In
RBIs seems to be the one category in which the leadoff hitter doesn’t have a huge edge on the others in the order, to varying degrees of course. You can guarantee that there will be no one on base during the first at-bat of the game, so the extra at-bats add a little less to this category. Still, slight improvements to RBIs are to be expected, just based on total chances, but don’t bet on too much. Add five to ten RBIs to last year’s 65 and you should be safe.

Batting Average
This is the toughest category to predict. Can Bartlett keep up the .320 average he displayed last year? Likely not, but imagine a .295 average on 600 at-bats. That’s a fair regression and leaves plenty of room for realistic upside. So, at .295, that’s 177 hits. That’s 17 more total hits than the breakout year of 2009. And that’s with a very conservative estimate for at-bats. There’s no reason to believe that 100 extra at-bats sprinkled evenly throughout the course of a season will have a tiring effect on a veteran like Bartlett. The fact that we can be so conservative in our batting average projections and still exceed last year’s number with higher quality at-bats is the clearest indication of how undervalued Bartlett’s stats really are.

Fantasy Implications

Last year I bid on Russell Branyan at third base and got him for nothing. I noticed that he was going to play everyday, putting his 2009 reality far above his projected at-bats. In the three seasons leading into 2009, Branyan had collected a total of 536 at-bats and hit a whopping 40 home runs (one home run per 13.4 at-bats), virtually in line with his now career home per at-bat rate one for every 14.8 at-bats. So it became a question of math. How many at-bats was he going to get. In the end, he got injured, but by that time he had amassed 431 at-bats and 31 home runs, one home run ever 13.9 at-bats–right on target! Sure, I had to finish with an also-ran in Branyan’s spot, but by that time, that roster spot had produced, among other things, 31 home runs, a great total for a third baseman that cost me nothing.

The point is, fantasy baseball is a game of math. If you see a player who will be getting many more at-bats than the fantasy baseball magazines and, more importantly, your friends think he will, then the player is under-valued. There are under-valued players like Branyan at the bottom rungs of the depth charts, and once in a while there’s a player like Bartlett, who’s got a high price tag, but remains under-valued nonetheless. Also, the game isn’t about getting a whole team of under-priced players. The key is to strike a balance between stats you can buy on the cheap while paying the price for the stats you absolutely must have. Some players are worth the price tag.

That said, my new 2010 fantasy baseball projection for Jason Bartlett is:

600 abs/12 home runs/73 RBIs/114 runs/41 stolen bases/.295 BA