In the arms race, my measure for predicting success is to look at the number of innings the arm in question has logged.  For hitters, success prediction is based ultimately in the number of at bats accrued and what that hitter has done with them.  So why not do the same with pitchers?  Let’s say we use 500-600 major league innings as the barometer.  Similar to the age 26-28 theory on the offensive side, pitchers seem to hit their stride around the 500 inning mark.  Give or take a few innings.  So let’s take a look at each of my break out candidates and see where they sit as we prepare to open the 2010 season.

Scott Baker  (MIN) –  2009 :  200.o IN, 15 W, 4.37 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 162 K

The 2009 season marked Baker’s 1^st time hitting the 200 inning mark, a major bar for most up and coming pitchers to hit.  What did he do with those innings?  He won 15 games and maintained excellent control despite what seemed to be a disastrous beginning.  Between 2008 and 2009 Baker saw a modest decrease in his already excellent BB/9, while maintaining and excellent 7 K’s/9.  Armed with a K/BB ratio of 3.38, Baker seems poised to really take off this year.  A savvy drafter will note that not only does Minnesota consistently develop pitchers with alarmingly terrific control, they also develop pitchers who exhibit tremendous mental composure.  Baker’s rebound from such a poor start last year coupled with his control, indicate to me that this bargain pitcher could be a major score if you draft him in the right spot—a number 3 or 4 pitcher in your rotation.

Jered Weaver  (LAA) – 2009 :  211.0 IN, 16 W, 3.75 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 174 K

It seems we’ve been talking about Jeff’s kid brother for some time now, and this year could be the year he breaks out in a major way.  Along with Baker, Weaver finally cleared the 200 inning bar and made the most of it.  Unlike Baker, Weaver jumped out of the gate looking like an all-star.  Sure, he tailed off toward the end of the year, but his rise in innings could certainly account for a wear and tear that would make any pitcher tire out.  What did he do with those 200+ innings?  Only throw 4 complete games and 2 shut-outs (not too far off the key Cy Young peripherals that most critics look at when voting).  He also lowered his BAA nicely, and gave us his highest strikeout total to date while lowering his WHIP for the third straight year.  If he can lower his BB/9 this year, I say he breaks out in a big way and the Angels maintain their playoff bound ways behind this arm.

Jorge De La Rosa  (COL) – 2009 :  185.0 IN, 16 W, 4.38 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 193 K

Everyone is talking about Ubaldo Jiminez, and for the right reasons.  However, people seem to be forgetting about Mr. De La Rosa and his rise to prominence.  Now, De La Rosa has had the career of a journey man, playing for 3 teams in 5 years.  If you look closely, his ability to keep the ball in the park in Colorado has managed to help him increase his K/BB ratio, lower his BAA, and throw more innings and ultimately win more games.  With a 9 K/9 arm, watch him bolster Colorado’s young rotation and keep them in contention for years to come.

Gavin Floyd  (CWS) – 2009 :  193.0 IN, 11 W, 4.06 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 163 K

Here’s a guy who was said to possess such a wicked 12-6-er, that his success in the majors was a matter of “when”, not “if”.  Floyd has seemed to find a nice home on the south side of Chicago.  In his 3 years with the White Sox, Floyd has lowered his HR/9 all the way under 1, and with that has seen increased success.  In a park where the longball can kill a pitcher, this shows an ability to adapt his game and the ability to bring it to another level.  In the last two years, he has seen his K/9 numbers rise while decreasing his BB/9.  All while preventing the killer home runs.  I say this is the year the once hailed arm rises to prominence in the AL Central.

Jon Lester  (BOS) – 2009 :  203.3 IN, 15 W, 3.41 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 225 K

Here’s another guy we’ve been hearing about for years as the Sox’s ace in the making.  Sure Clay Bucholtz has taken over that title as Lester has ensconced himself in the rotation with an arm that can flat out put people away.  We have watched his K/9 rise and rise and rise until it finally exploded last year with almost 10 K’s per 9.  If he can maintain that, he will continue to see success and could even possibly put himself in line to win 18-19 games with the defense Epstein has put behind his hurlers.

Tim Lincecum  (SF) – 2009 :  225.1 IN, 15 W, 2.48 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 261

Could it be possible that this kid gets better?  Well, he is entering his third full season and has logged the necessary 500-600 innings.  It’s what he has done with those innings that makes him a break out pitcher.  He gave up less hits per innings pitched than the year prior, lowered his already ridiculous HR/9 rate and gave up less walks as well.  He’s seen his K/9 go up and up and I say it continues to go up.  He brought his BAA down to almost below .200—and for a guy that throws 7-8 innings per start – that is just ridiculous consistency and improvement.  This is the year he gets even better and, while not a surprise, breaks into the super elite territory that was once manned by the Johan Santanas of the world.

Hamels was expensive in 2009 drafts. But what about 2010?

At 736 innings pitched, Cole Hamels is a veteran.  This means that he, barring injury, can be reasonably predictable.  Over the course of his career, Hamels has shown he can be expected to hover near a K/BB ratio of 4:1.  His ERA is middle of the pack, and his WHIP (while consistently above average), can be gotten for far fewer dollars than you’d have to pay to get Hamels.  He has never won more than 15 games.  There are several positive aspects to Cole; he’s 26 years old and he plays for a winner.  He has managed to succeed in the post season, and in a notorious hitters haven.  We’ve heard the hype, seen the flashes of brilliance.  The question going forward– is he a top 10 pitcher worth spending big draft money on, or is he a guy you pass on to land a more reasonably priced player that will net you the same gains?

Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum, Johan Santana, Dan Haren, CC Sabathia, Justin Verlander, Jake Peavy, Josh Beckett, Zack Greinke, Josh Johnson, Roy Oswalt, Javier Vazquez, Cliff Lee — these are all guys I would rather spend my pitching money on if I was going to pay for a top 10 arm.  Hamels is on the cusp of this list for sure, but when I can slot more money for a power bat with the consistency of a Ryan Howard, why would I pay top 10 dollars for a pitcher who doesn’t crack the top 10?

Another question to consider when thinking about Hamels is roster space and relative value.  To be competitive, every team really needs that one anchor, ace of their staff.  In a league with 12-15 teams, he qualifies as that type of pitcher.  Pitching is that thin– especially with the decline of guys like Brandon Webb- but with the emergence of pitchers like Adam Wainwright and Yovani Gallardo (and a guy named Felix too), Hamels has his work cut out for him to earn his money and status from fantasy owners.

It’s really a tough call on a player like Hamels.  His age works in his favor in terms of a resurgence to his World Series MVP persona.  His K/BB rate indicates that despite his poor year, he still managed to keep guys off the bases and got the K when he needed it.  Then, there is the fact that he gave up more hits than innings pitched for the first time in his career.  His 162 game average of 199 hits to 216 innings pitched says that 2009 might have been a fluke year for the maybe ace.  The only real difference between his stellar campaign and his awful one is the number of hits allowed that translated into runs.  How many of those hits fell into play on a chance?

Then there is the final weight– can I get a pitcher who will outperform  Cole Hamels on the cheap?  Scott Baker could have been had for 5 bucks in an auction and would have gone off the board at somewhere in the 10th round in drafts.  He won 5 more games, had a slightly better ERA even after having as disastrous if not worse start to the year as Hamels.  He only had 6 less K’s than Hamels and despite the 3:1 K./BB ratio, he made up for that shortcoming in wins.

Do you skip the maybe player and go for the cheaper, similar pitcher without the top ten reputation?  Or, do you secure what you believe an be an anchor and build around that belief?  There are arguments that can be made for both sides.  With a now veteran Hamels, you can reasonably say that he is on the cusp of being a tier 1 pitcher.  With guys like Baker and even guys like Chad Billingsley, you can’t really be sure that you will get that bang for your buck.

Justin Verlander, in his 2008 campaign lost a league-leading, humiliating 17 games.  He had just come off of winning 35 games in the previous 2 seasons and seeing a K rate go up and up.  He was becoming a true horse.  Then came the 4.84 ERA, the 1.4+ WHIP and so forth.  What happened in 2009?  He reverted back to his winning ways.  Not only that, he surpassed his winning ways and is a CY Young candidate again.

Cole Hamels can experience the same exact revitalization.  He is a young veteran with a tremendous talent that can still elevate his game.  OR, Cole Hamels can fade into misery and prove that those arm problems of his past have taken their toll.  The choice is yours.