Bartlett achieved his career year on 500 at-bats, but will have 20% more at-bats in 2010. The cumulative categories (Home runs, stolen bases, RBIs and runs) can only be positively affected by 100 more at-bats. Even with a slight regression in production per at-bat, last year’s numbers are more than achievable; they can be exceeded. Let’s look at how 600 at-bats in the leadoff position should affect Bartlett’s 2010 numbers.

Home Runs
No number was more of a breakout last year for Bartlett than his home run total in 2009. He hit 14 long-balls, nine more than his previous best for a season. Still, his relatively high total of home runs last season works out to just one home run every 36 at-bats. That’s not exactly Babe Ruth or Ralph Kiner. Even if Bartlett regresses to just one home run per 50 at-bats, in a 600 at-bat season, he still hits 12 home runs, just two shy of that breakout total of 14. To put it in perspective, that’s basically one home run every two weeks. If he cracks two in one series, he doesn’t have to hit one for another month. Bartlett can handle that. The Bartlett owner-to-be isn’t exactly buying him for his power anyway. In fact, the home run jump that seems unsustainable, might be scaring him off. But as we can see, the extra at-bats cushion the risk of a return to a four or five home run season.

Stolen Bases
This category is a double bonus. Whereas home runs is a category in which Bartlett’s extra at-bats mitigate risk, stolen bases gets two serious bumps from this move. First, where most of the experts are predicting around 30 stolen bases on about 500 at-bats, we can now update that number. Adding 20 percent to 30 is easy.  So is 36 the new stolen base number? The Sporting News™ is the only fantasy baseball publication I use that has predicted 600 at-bats and get this, they predict 35 stolen bases.

But there’s another difference that adds value beyond the 20 percent already tacked on. Batting toward the bottom of the order doesn’t always lend to running situations. The leadoff spot is designed around it. So, related to stolen bases, Bartlett isn’t just receiving more at-bats, he’s receiving a higher quality of at-bat too. A 40 stolen base season is well within reach.

Runs
The same two positives that will affect stolen bases will have a similarly positive impact on the runs category. The 20 percent added to last year’s total(90 runs) will add 18, to bring the projection to 108 runs. That’s a huge number. Remember the aforementioned Sporting News with the 600 at-bat Bartlett line? They project 111 runs scored. Add to it that when batting near the bottom of the order, Bartlett was often stranded by lesser hitters.

If Carl Crawford and the rest of the heart of the order had a chance to drive him in, you could be sure there would be a few outs on the board already. But now Bartlett will always, always be followed by the best on the team. The one hitter is driven in by the three and four hitters a hell of a lot more than the eight hitter. Stolen bases and runs stand to receive the largest jump and with all these opportunities, 110 runs suddenly seems like the right floor. If this Tampa offense cranks away this season, Bartlett could end up 5 – 15 runs higher than that.

Runs Batted In
RBIs seems to be the one category in which the leadoff hitter doesn’t have a huge edge on the others in the order, to varying degrees of course. You can guarantee that there will be no one on base during the first at-bat of the game, so the extra at-bats add a little less to this category. Still, slight improvements to RBIs are to be expected, just based on total chances, but don’t bet on too much. Add five to ten RBIs to last year’s 65 and you should be safe.

Batting Average
This is the toughest category to predict. Can Bartlett keep up the .320 average he displayed last year? Likely not, but imagine a .295 average on 600 at-bats. That’s a fair regression and leaves plenty of room for realistic upside. So, at .295, that’s 177 hits. That’s 17 more total hits than the breakout year of 2009. And that’s with a very conservative estimate for at-bats. There’s no reason to believe that 100 extra at-bats sprinkled evenly throughout the course of a season will have a tiring effect on a veteran like Bartlett. The fact that we can be so conservative in our batting average projections and still exceed last year’s number with higher quality at-bats is the clearest indication of how undervalued Bartlett’s stats really are.

Fantasy Implications

Last year I bid on Russell Branyan at third base and got him for nothing. I noticed that he was going to play everyday, putting his 2009 reality far above his projected at-bats. In the three seasons leading into 2009, Branyan had collected a total of 536 at-bats and hit a whopping 40 home runs (one home run per 13.4 at-bats), virtually in line with his now career home per at-bat rate one for every 14.8 at-bats. So it became a question of math. How many at-bats was he going to get. In the end, he got injured, but by that time he had amassed 431 at-bats and 31 home runs, one home run ever 13.9 at-bats–right on target! Sure, I had to finish with an also-ran in Branyan’s spot, but by that time, that roster spot had produced, among other things, 31 home runs, a great total for a third baseman that cost me nothing.

The point is, fantasy baseball is a game of math. If you see a player who will be getting many more at-bats than the fantasy baseball magazines and, more importantly, your friends think he will, then the player is under-valued. There are under-valued players like Branyan at the bottom rungs of the depth charts, and once in a while there’s a player like Bartlett, who’s got a high price tag, but remains under-valued nonetheless. Also, the game isn’t about getting a whole team of under-priced players. The key is to strike a balance between stats you can buy on the cheap while paying the price for the stats you absolutely must have. Some players are worth the price tag.

That said, my new 2010 fantasy baseball projection for Jason Bartlett is:

600 abs/12 home runs/73 RBIs/114 runs/41 stolen bases/.295 BA

Rip Van Winkle would have been awesome at finding fantasy baseball sleepers

The “game” of putting together a fantasy champion involves smart projections, wise use of your money, and a little bit of luck (like avoiding this year’s Jose Reyes). Luck is mainly up to the baseball gods and we’ve been giving you fantasy baseball projections all off-season, so now it’s time to look at that “wise use of your money.” Each year, a group of players play well beyond what was expected of them and, looking back, owners are left saying, “If I had just spent that $1 on this player instead of wasting $15 on that one, my whole year would’ve been different.” Note that for the purposes of this article, if you’re in a league that uses a snake draft instead of an auction, then it’s not money we’re talking about, but bumping someone up a round or two so as not to lose them.

Let’s break down these players into one of three categories. Snoozers are players that some in your fantasy league will probably already be talking about as possible breakout players and (with a big Spring), may be overpriced by the time your draft rolls around. Sleepers are the true question marks. You may get these players for nothing, or a you may an owner or two in your league who have also been eyeing them all off-season. The Rip Van Winkles are players with credentials, but will need to get some breaks in order to really pay off. While you need to judge the depth of your league and where each of these types of players fit, the Rip Van Winkles are really for the leagues with more than 12 teams.

Snoozers

——————-

Garrett Jones -PIT (1B/OF)- 2009 : 314 AB, 293 BA, 21 HR, 44 RBI, 45 R, 10 SB

Watching Garrett Jones play last summer, I was looking forward to keeping this hidden gem in my back pocket for the latter rounds of my draft.  But as he continued to pound the baseball, it became evident that he would slip from sleeper status to the hot new item.   Jones’ bat struck for 21 home runs in just 314 at-bats, a pace that seems unlikely to continue. However, a fraction of that success over the course of a 600 at-bat season would mean exciting numbers for a happy fantasy baseball owner.

The warning signs are there. While the magical notion of “sophomore slumps” does not exist, there is a real reason that young players seem to hit a wall after a season of success. Baseball is a game of adjustments, both inside the course of a game and from year to year as well. Just as we all saw what Jones did in 2009, so too did the league. They all now have a book on him. As sloppy fantasy owners get mesmerized by the opportunity to double those home run numbers in a full season, more attentive owners will notice that doubling those 76 strikeouts is a little concerning. Certainly, each of those Ks has given pitching coaches around baseball the beginnings of the textbook on how to attack Jones. It’s now on Jones as to whether he’ll be able to adjust to people knowing his weaknesses.

Adding to the problems for Garrett is that he’s a Pirate. Pittsburgh is not the type of club right now that litters the base-paths with Bucs. Notice that those 21 home runs produced just 44 RBIs and 45 runs. This is not surprising, but something that needs a diligent owner’s attention.

If too many of your fellow owners are acting as though Jones is the second-coming of Babe Ruth, then let him go and take a less-exciting option, like Hunter Pence.  He plays with a better supporting cast and his numbers, while not mind-blowing, are much more predictable. However, if your fellow owners let him slip long enough, he’s not a bad gamble for one of your final outfield spots.

Kyle Blanks – SD (OF/1B) – 2009 : 148 AB, .250 BA, 10 HR, 22 RBI, 24 R, 1 SB

Like Jones, some of your fellow owners took note of Kyle Blanks in 2009. His size (6′6” – 285 lbs.) makes you think of an NFL linebacker instead of baseball player.  However, it’s true.  Provided he has completely recovered from the season-ending foot injury he suffered in late August, Blanks will be the Padres starting right fielder on opening day.

Being that size certainly has its benefits. He swats at balls and they appear to be shot out of a cannon, at least for those briefs moments before they leave the hemisphere. In 148 at-bats, Blanks connected for 10 homes runs. Assuming a 600 at-bat season, that’s 40 long balls. For any other player, Petco Park’s spacious dimensions would be an issue, but throw the park out. Blanks can hit them out of anywhere.

However, the size has its drawbacks too. His strike-zone sleeps three, leading to 55 strikeouts in those same 148 at-bats. Over the course of a full season, that would allow him to test Mark Reynolds territory, who set (and then re-set) the MLB single-season strikeout records over the past two seasons(204 and 223, respectively).  This is important to note.  Blanks finds himself in a situation similar to Garret Jones.  He’s on a team that doesn’t have table-setters and so, the power will likely be the only positive stat he’ll provide for your team.  In the relatively small sampling, Blanks netted just 22 RBIs for those 10 home runs.   This is eerily similar to Jones’ problem, and where Jones at least showed some ability to hit for average (.293), Blanks was a .250 hitter.

Will Blanks cut down on the strikeouts per at-bat?  Probably, but not by that much.   What an owner needs to realize is that Blanks will likely be below average in runs and RBIs, because of his teammates, not him. He won’t steal a lot of bases (maybe 3) and he’ll hurt your team batting average.  Plus, he’s coming off an injury. So like Garrett Jones, if the bidding gets too high, let him go. For now, Blanks appears to be to power what Juan Pierre is to speed. Home runs that travel 500 feet count the same as the wall-scrapers.

Sleepers

——————–
Randy Ruiz – TOR (DH) – 2009 : 115 AB, .313 BA, 10 HR, 17 RBI, 25 R, 1 SB

Unlike the two aforementioned players, many in your league may not have even heard of Randy Ruiz at this point.   The Toronto Blue Jays were tougher to watch last season than “For The Love of Ray J”, and 2009 will best be remembered for overplaying their Roy Halladay hand.  It’s a long season when your best moment is tricking someone into taking the contemptible Alex Rios and his enormous salary off your hands.  Good job White Sox!

But in the midst of that, there were some interesting players to watch, and Ruiz is clearly one of them. His power (10 home runs in 115 at-bats) looks a lot like the line Kyle Blanks put up, but impressively he struck out just 35 times and hit for a .313 average. Adjustments will be the key to the success of Ruiz, but prodigious power lives in his bat. While his 10 home runs produced just 17 RBIs, in what is a familiar theme to this article, with a better supporting cast (Adam Lind, Vernon Wells, Travis Snider, Aaron Hill to name a few) he should be able to achieve better production for his efforts than Garrett Jones and Kyle Blanks.

If owners are just chomping at the bit to get Blanks and Jones, let Ruiz slide a little and take him at your DH spot quietly toward the end of your draft. You may out-produce those others and you’ll have a reason to get involved in the silly drama that will be the 2010 Blue Jays. It should be better than “For The Love of Ray J 2″.

Matt Garza – TB (SP) – 2009 :  203.0 IN, 8 W, 3.95 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 189 K

The players mentioned in this article so far are young players with exciting upside.  Now it’s time for a player that others certainly know about, but might deserve an upgrade on your sheets. Matt Garza is a flat-out workhorse. If you’ve read my past articles, I preach the gospel of reliability. Usually, I’m referring to the guaranteed at-bats, but having a starter on your staff that you draft and never again have to deal with is a great boon to your chances of putting together a winning team.

Player values are like stock prices. They don’t always match reality, and are sometimes tied to people’s personal preferences. In most leagues, there was a decent amount of hype surrounding Garza when he was moved from the Twins. An 11-9 record in his first season with Tampa showed some promise (3.70 era/1.24 whip), but didn’t live up to the unrealistic hopes some owners had. 2009 would further disappoint Garza hopefuls, as he could muster just 8 wins. The Rays run support (or lack thereof) was to blame for the dearth of victories. However, the internal numbers tell the story of a young player coming into his own.

Garza started 32 games last season, up from an impressive 30 the year before. He also set a career-high in strikeouts with 189, jumping from 128 in 2008. The ERA and WHIP were up slightly from ‘08, but the moves were not enough that it should worry you. The ERA moved from 3.70 to 3.95, while the WHIP moved from 1.24 to 1.26. If nothing else, these moves appear to be a wash when compared to nearly 20 extra innings Garza tossed in 2009, his first season north of 200 in that category.

The bottom line is, take a close look at what pitchers are going in your league, and where they come off the board. If your fellow owners are willing to let him slip, jump up and grab him. Let them moan or laugh about the eight wins. You can sit back and smile to yourself knowing that you just bought 200+ solid major league innings on the cheap. What’s more important to you, the first laugh or the last?

Rip Van Winkles

————————

Angel Pagan – NYM (OF) – 2009 :  343 AB, .306 BA, 6 HR, 32 RBI, 54 R, 14 SB

Angel Pagan is a diamond in the rough…….the very rough. Sometimes last season, it appeared as though Pagan was someone the Mets had plucked from the stands for a promotional stunt.  But those times were never at the plate. Pagan is a wonderful contact hitter who got a chance to show his stuff for the second half of the dreadful 2009 Mets campaign after injuries derailed multiple Met players. The numbers were OK (343 ABs, 6 home runs, 14 stolen bases to 7 caught stealing), but to see him play is to feel the potential.

In baseball terminology, Pagan has a live bat. The few home runs he hit were out of the place before he was halfway to first and his outstanding contact rate (89.3% in 2009) led to a .306 batting average for the young player. The signing of Jason Bay means that Pagan is the odd man out in the Met outfield. Bay will patrol left with Carlos Beltran in center and Jeff Francoeur in right. Take as a good sign that when the Royals came calling earlier this off-season, the Mets would not talk about Pagan.

Sure he runs the base-paths like a T-baller, but that can be fixed. Keep an eye on the Mets outfield during the Spring. If any of them get hurt or traded, then Pagan will get another shot and you should move him way up your depth charts.

Will Venable – SD (OF) – 2009 :  293 AB, .256 BA, 12 HR, 38 RBI, 38 R, 6 SB

While Kyle Blanks makes people say, “Wow,” Will Venable makes people say, “Who’s that?” Acquaint yourself with this young Padre and be one of the few people in your league who knows the answer to that question.

Venable was called up last season even before Blanks and really struggled, but the Padres stuck with him and Venable showed real improvement. His final line (293 at-bats, .256 BA, 12 HRs, 6 SBs) won’t jump out at most of your fellow owners, which is why you need to store him in the back of your mind. He’s someone who you could probably get with your final spot and might go undrafted if you don’t take him, largely because the pedestrian numbers, combined with Petco Park, will send your fellow owners looking elsewhere.

Don’t break the bank to get him, but, as I always preach, at-bats are gold. Venable should play well enough to be in the Padre lineup on an everyday basis, and if given the late-draft decision between a one-dimensional player headed toward 400 at-bats or Venable, I’d take the at-bats and the surprisingly even-handed dispersal of power and speed.

– Mike D is an contributing writer for Fantasy Baseball Addiction

Expectations are high for Troy Tulowitzki

Troy Tulowitzki has gone from “Superstar shortstop-to be,” to “King of the slow start,” to “Who the heck cares about the slow start?” in two quick years. One season removed from his turbulent 2008 campaign, Tulo broke out. He played in over 150 games, which may have been the most important news considering the serious injury he suffered in 2008, but it goes beyond that. Tulo’s power really showed up with a career-high 32 home runs, an eight home run jump over his previous best of 24 long balls in 2007. Even better was the spike in speed. Troy’s 20 stolen bases nearly tripled his previous-best 7 swipes in 2007. Is maintaining that jump a realistic request from fantasy owners? Will 2010’s overall numbers be worth the price? These are the questions potential Tulowitzki investors need to ask.

———-

The “Slow Start” Syndrome

What better place to start than where Tulowitzki owners have found themselves in April and May for the last two seasons; wondering if they’d made a mistake. There’s no doubt that Tulo is getting a rep for starting slow and finishing strong, which is probably easier to deal with than the reverse problem of starting strong and stumbling to the finish, an affliction know as Dan Haren-itis. But what, if any, are the pitfalls of such a player?

Let’s start by saying that this label would go away with a solid, wire-to-wire campaign. Remember, Tulowitzki was just 24 years old this season, so there’s plenty of time to make this reputation evaporate. However, a responsible fantasy owner needs to calculate the “slump’s” negative value, until on-the-field performance shows it’s no longer necessary. Since Tulo plays virtually every day, the only area this slump truly affects is his trade value.

Guys like Dan Haren and Mike Lowell who have had the reputation for wearing down are tough to trade because people are concerned with what they’ll be locked into after their fantasy league’s trade deadline. On the other hand, guys like Tulowitzki present a different issue. Owners know they’re supposed to break out in the second half, but it’s tough to pull the trigger in those early months when the player in question is below the Mendoza Line. The point here is this. To get the full value of what you’ll have to pay for Tulowitzki this season, a fantasy owner should be committed to riding it for the entire season. Of course, if an opportunity arises, there’s always room to readjust, but this premise is something owners need to understand about Troy’s value right now.

Here’s the bright side. He might do what Robinson Cano did this season. Cano has been a disappointment for fantasy owners, always teasing them with .320 batting average ability, but slow starts have made more than a few owners grey. Then poof; 2009. Cano seized on the potential that was there and rocked it. Tulowitzki had 32 home runs, with over 90 runs and RBIs apiece in the 2009 season that included one of these slow starts. Just imagine what he would do if he hit the ground running in 2010.

———-

Defense

This may seem like a sudden topic shift, but once in a while a player’s defense is either so good or so bad, that they’re offensive output is affected. If a player has a bad habit of booting balls, he’ll eventually lose those precious at-bats. Likewise, a player who makes himself indispensable in the field, especially at one of the defensive-oriented positions of C, 2B, SS or CF is sure to be in lineup daily. Even with the slow start, Tulowitzki’s at-bats were never in doubt because Troy’s defense is superb, highlighted by a rocket-firing arm.

There is a certain value afforded the owner of a player who will likely reach 600 at-bats. That owner can accept the projected offensive stats with more assurance, since a key component to calculating those numbers(at bats) is not only not a variable, but is pinned at maximum output. Dustin Pedroia is another solid defensive middle infielder who delivers very reliable stats for his owners, in large part because of his 600-or-so bites at the apple each season.

———-

2010 Projections:

Tulowitzki is coming off that breakout season we all want our players to have, but what now? Once is a blip; two is a trend. If he can come close to repeating his 2009 season next year, then he has the opportunity to move up in value at the relatively thin shortstop position. Many players get here, but only some follow through.

The signs point to a near-repeat of last season’s numbers. For one, the slow start issue can be seen as an area for improvement; a place where solid play could shift the numbers upward.

2009 was not a statistical best in runs or RBIs, but came up just 10 runs and RBIs combined short of 2007’s totals, a year in which Tulowitzki had more than 60 extra at-bats to work with. This makes it clear to me. With the at-bats in hand, and Tulowitzki coming into his own, 2010 will be a very fun year for owners of this Rockies shortstop; maybe more fun at the end than the beginning, but fun nonetheless.

So is it worth paying the price this year? Accept that you he needs to be part your entire 2010 plan; not trade bait. Accept that he’s like a locomotive that takes a while to get going and don’t get frustrated when he’s driving you nuts. Remember. You invested for the entire season package. If you can accept these base premises about your 2010 investment in Troy Tulowitzki, then you should go get him.

And here’s the bonus for keeper league owners. If he does have that wire-to-wire run, the resultant stats will be off the wall and the label of “slow starter” will be replaced by that of a cornerstone player.

Expect the slump. Root for the quick start. And in the meantime, punch these stats into your model:

2010 Projections: 605 at-bats/.289 ba/31 HR/105 runs/101 rbis/16 sb

Doubt the power... not the talent

Season-ending, head-scratching is part of the fun of fantasy baseball. So many 2009 owners spent an arm and leg to make sure they had a top-notch shortstop. When all was said and done, how many asked themselves, “Why didn’t I get Jason Bartlett and spend my Hanley Ramirez-money elsewhere?” In case you didn’t notice, this Tampa SS put up a monster year, hitting .320 with a .389 OBP to go with 14 home runs, 30 stolen bases, 90 runs and 66 rbis — all career highs. So the question becomes, will Bartlett play well enough in 2010 to warrant the added attention he will surely garner on draft day?

Minors

It may seem odd to take a look a 30 year-old player’s minor league history, but there is one thing to note about Bartlett. He is a product of the Twins organization. The Twins minor league system has this amazing ability to turn out players who do what they’re supposed to do.  Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Scott Baker of recent note, Bartlett was also a member of that fraternity, and was always touted as a contact, line-drive hitter with better-than-average speed and a good glove. This is basically the skill set that has made him an everyday major leaguer.

2009

Those who have followed Bartlett’s slow (sometimes painfully slow), rise as a serious fantasy option at SS were properly enticed by what had always been a cheap source of stolen bases. When an owner didn’t get Option 1 or 2 at shortstop, Bartlett was a decent choice because of his ability to swipe a bag, even at the detriment of power and RBIs. The 2009 season has thrown that all out the window; Bartlett had a career year.

As 2009 unfolded, many believed Bartlett’s numbers would fade, especially his batting average and power. After a minor hamstring injury slowed him for a bit, the excuse was there for the slide to begin. He hit .247 in the month of July. August days are supposed to be the “dog days” where worn out players finally fall off, but after that slow July, Bartlett got it cranking again, hitting .356 in August. He slowed a little again to the finish line, but was out there everyday, right up to the end. He finished with a stolen base in 5 of his final 6 games of the season. There is no doubt. 2009 was a spectacular, wire-to-wire effort for Bartlett, but what should we be concerned about?

Warning Signs

There are quite a few things that flash “Stay Away!!!” when a player has a breakout season. For starers, there’s history. Past baseball drafts are strewn with the carcasses of teams built around players who were coming of off huge seasons. How many 2004 drafts had wild bidding on Esteban Loaiza after his 21 win/207 strikeout 2003? There was plenty of evidence that Loaiza wasn’t going to repeat that effort and only a little evidence that he might.

That, of course, is an extreme example, but it is more likely that Bartlett fits into the Adrain Beltre mode; a guy who was all upside until his 48 home run outburst in 2004, then became a disappointment as owners spent 48 home run dollars to get 19 home run production. With both Beltre and Bartlett, there is a history of stats leading up to the explosion. Owners need to realize that the price for Bartlett will probably be too high, but the question is, what will his stats for 2010 be?

Before we get to those projections, let’s go over the remaining Bartlett-specific issues in the numbers. As mentioned earlier, these were career numbers across the board and in some instances, complete outliers. Home runs jumps out as the category that seems least likely to repeat. Bartlett had a career total of 11 home runs entering the 2009 season, and this 29-year old, was able to more-than-double that total. It’s possible that he’s found a power stroke, but to pay, expecting 14 home runs every 500 at-bats(as it was in 2009) is silly. If you pay and get them, consider yourself lucky. The good news is that you aren’t(or shouldn’t be) drafting Bartlett for his power. If you got 9 instead of 14, your team shouldn’t be all that affected.

Further, the other numbers do seem a bit tough to repeat, but at least there’s some precedent. If you’re concerned about the batting average, don’t be. Just expect a .290 average when you’re putting your squad together and be happy with everything you get over that. A .290 batting average is more than attainable and actually leaves you plenty of upside. See, if you build expecting a .290 average and get a .305 batting average, you will be in good shape, as it will fill in for the failings of other players, where if you expect the repeat at .320, then get that .305, your team will actually be in the hole. Instead of that .305 helping, it hurts, so the lesson here is plan wisely. Don’t expect too much from certain players and it will force you to be realistic about the stats you need from the rest of your team.

Good News and Projections:

An interesting bit of news has been floating out there that potential Bartlett owners should keep an eye on. The Rays, flush with the excitement after their great 2008 run, went out and spent some money, primarily on Pat Burrell. Well, 2009 wasn’t so good, especially at the gate, and that put the Rays in a difficult situation. They may be forced to move a major salary, and the word is that Carl Crawford might be shipped out for prospects. If this happens, Jason Bartlett would become the primary option to bat leadoff, with some time in the two-hole.  It also means almost no time at the bottom of the order, which is where he often found himself in 2009. Remember, the blow out stats for Bartlett came in just 500 at-bats this season. Even if you believe that the home runs will decline, the raw number, with extra at-bats, may not look all that different. As it was, Bartlett was only hitting one home run every 36 at-bats. Let’s say that moves to one every 50 at-bats, but Bartlett ends up with 600 at-bats on the season; that’s still 12 home runs. As discussed earlier, you aren’t really getting Bartlett for the home runs, but that same math applies to all the other categories you care about. In 2009, Bartlett scored 90 times, while batting 7th, 8th or 9th in the order for a combined 65 games. If Bartlett is hitting 1st or 2nd for the entire season(or even most of the season), he will set another career high in runs scored in 2010, as he will be sure to be in triple-digits for the first time. The Crawford situation is one a swift fantasy owner will watch closely. If Crawford is dealt, the price for this SS might suddenly be a lot easier to swallow. If all that happens, get Bartlett for sure, but for now, I would work off the following stat projections:

2010 Prediction: 530 abs/.290 ba/9 HR/90 runs/65 rbi/27 sb