Recent Career

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There is a very large sample size to look at for Johnny Damon.  Of course, this is also another way of saying that he is getting old.  He has had at least 472 ABs in every season since 1996, so there can be no denying that he is durable.  That is probably the best thing that I can say about him.  If you draft him (and he has found a starting job somewhere) he will get you those 500 ABs that you must have.  For years Damon has been a nice blend of power and speed, though he has rarely been able to put all the pieces together in the same season.  He has gone 20-20 only once in his career.  In fact, he has hit 20 or more home runs only in only 3 seasons.  Bottom line, when you have drafted Damon over the last decade, you felt safe that you would receive 15ish HRs, with 25ish SBs, 100 runs, and a batting average that would help your fantasy team.

Secondary Numbers

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Damon has seen a steady increase in his BB rate over the last many seasons.  From 2001-2008, his BB rate has increased from 8.5% to the  10.5% range.  This number reached a career high in 2009 when he posted a BB rate of 11.3%.  Of all the secondary numbers, this is the only one that I can find which says that he is getting better.  Rest assured, I am about to show you why this is a very minor number when put in context.  His K rate has also been in a steady rise.  Whereas in Boston he was able to keep that rate around 11%, that number immediately jumped to 14.3% when moving to New York, and reached a career high in 2009 at 17.8%.  The result has been a complete negation of the BB increase in his BB/K ratio.  In his Boston days that numbers was ABOVE .90 in three out of four seasons.  Since moving to New York, it has been BELOW .80 in three out of four seasons.  So while his BB rate increased, his K rate has increased significantly more.

After years of posting home run totals in the 10-20 range, Damon muscled up for 24 HR in 2009.  His ISO (isolated power) jumped to a career high of .207.  This number when compared to the large sample size of his career looks to be an outlier.  He has only one other season with an ISO over .172 (2006).  This is also confirmed by looking at Damon’s fly-ball rate which jumped over 8% in 2009.

More bad news.  His contact rates are down.  Since 2002, Damon has not recorded a lower contact rate than he did in 2009.  It has fallen 3.5% since posting an 88.0% rate in 2005.  He also swung at a career high percentage of balls outside of the strike zone in 2009 (his contact rate on those pitches was NOT a career high).  It is worth noting that his SBs in 2009 dropped to less than half what they had been in the previous three seasons.  Take that in context, however, as the power surge for Damon (as well as for the Yankees in general) may have put the red light on Damon.  Also, he was not caught stealing at all last year.  So this decrease could be a result of the team’s situation rather than a loss of speed on Damon’s part.

Fantasy Implications

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So what does this all mean to a fantasy GM?  Well, firstly it means that you should follow the lead of MLB GMs and be skeptical of Damon’s production for the 2010 fantasy baseball season.  His name makes him high profile, and there will definitely be GMs in your league that will expect the power to continue and the SBs to return.  The latest rumors have Damon close to signing with either the Tigers or the Braves.  Both of those teams play in ballparks that are significantly less friendly to hitters, so the power is likely to decline even more than if he stayed in New York.  Both of those teams have less potent offenses, so the runs scored and RBI are likely to decline.  I would expect the SBs to increase to their former levels (25-30 SBs) due to both of those facts.  However, if you were hoping to protect Damon and ride him for a 20-20 season, you are very likely to be disappointed.  The numbers point to a guy that is trying to add power to make up for declining secondary numbers that make him a less valuable player to a team (more MLB than fantasy-wise).  It definitely does not help that his defense is suspect, and his arm is almost non-exsitant.  Watch where he lands, and if he has a full time job locked up rate him as a serviceable OF that will play all season long.  That is a valuable commodity.  Just don’t pay for him as though he is a power/speed threat playing for the most powerful offense in the American League.  He just isn’t that player.  Pay no more than $16 in your auction.  2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections:  .288 BA, 14 HR, 66 RBI, 89 R, 26 SB in 569 AB.

Minor League Career

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Gonzalez has shown decent power at every stop along his minor league career, but it is only recently that he has shown the ability to take the free pass.  Also, while Gonzalez does have speed, his success rate in the minors leaves something to be desired.  In his first two major stints in the minors (2006- DBacks A+, 2007 DBacks AA) his BB/K rate was miserable at .29 and .31, respectively.  In each season, the sample size of at-bats was over 400.  To be fair, his batting average during these two seasons was not an issue, as he hit .300 and then .286.  Near the end of the 2007 season, Gonzalez was traded to the Athletics, and spend a short amount of time (10 games) playing for their AAA team.  It was at this point that something changed in his game.

Some good coach in their organization must have preached the value of taking a walk, because in that ten game stretch his BB/K rate was 1.0.  The next season playing for that same team, he logged 173 ABs, and while his walk rate was not as high as 1.0, he did manage to improve it from his former .30ish level to .46.  Clearly, this excited the A’s and they gave him a nice long cuppa coffee in 2008.  Overwhelmed in his first big league opportunity, his BB/K rate hit a new low over his 302 ABs (.16).  Another trade later, and Gonzalez found himself in Colorado’s AAA affiliate.  He continued his improvement to post a .69 BB/K rate in 223 ABs, and that was all the Rockies needed to see.  He was promoted to the show, and this time found his stroke after just a short period.

2009

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It is easy to just look at the scoring categories and see that Gonzalez showed both power and speed with a good batting average.  Based on that alone, plenty of fantasy baseball GMs will pay huge dollars for the potential of further progress.  However, that is actually not where the story is.  If we continue looking at the secondary stats, we find that Gonzalez could well be on his way to being WORTH all those dollars that are going to be spent on him.

In that first month of 2009 especially, things looked bleak.  He was called up in June, and in that month he recorded a .23 BB/K.  In other words, he once again reverted to his old bad habits when faced with better pitching.  Someone must have sat him down and had a talk, because in July that rate rose back up to .67.  There is another number that I find encouraging for Gonzalez.  His percentage of balls swung at outside the strike-zone went down 2% from his 2008 major league campaign to that in 2009.  His contact rate went up 3%, and top that off with a 6% increase in his line-drive rate.  These are all signs that real progress being made by a young talent that is coming into his own.  The results are clear.  In the second half of the season, Gonzalez posted a .320 batting average with an OPS of .992.

Warning Signs

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The warnings signs here are primarily that when struggling Gonzalez tends to revert back to his free-swinging ways.  If you do chose to invest in this talent, keep a close watch on his BB/K rate.  If it begins to sink, it is time to start shopping him.  I have also read (and obviously have no personal knowledge about) that his work ethic and attitude have drawn criticism.  Perhaps the fact that listening to his coaches with regard to being selective at the plate has proven to work, will improve that.  Personally, I feel that since he is going to start regardless of attitude, that it is irrelevant.  I mean, Gary Sheffield and Barry Bonds were notorious dicks, and they were fantasy studs for years.

Fantasy Implications

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The kid is only 25 this season, and could easily take the next step in 2010.  It appears as though the plate discipline that he was lacking is coming around, and that could lead to the 5-tool player that all fantasy GMs want.  With a full-time job assured in 2010, he will get a full season to prove himself.  I expect him to take another step forward.  The Rockies like to run, so the speed should be an asset, and the power he showed in the second half of the season is real.  Since his numbers were good, but not eye-popping, it is possible that he could go in snake drafts after Adam Jones, but given the choice between the two, Gonzalez would be my choice.  I would place his top fantasy baseball auction value at $19, and expect a season of .278, 20 HR, 72 RBI, 82 R, 19 SB, 520 ABs.

Early Career

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It may seem like Ramirez has been around forever.  In fact, for the majority of GMs, Ramirez will have been among the top of the third base rankings the entire time they have been playing fantasy baseball.  However, he will turn just 32 in the 2010 season.  After three seasons of part time play for the Pirates in 1998-2000, Aramis hit the big time in 2001 posting a .300-34-112 line in 603 ABs.  While he did take a step backward in 2002 when he hit only 18 HR in 522 ABs with a .234 BA, good fortune smiled on him when he was traded to the Chicago Cubs in the 2003 season.

After leaving Pittsburgh for a team that actually takes baseball seriously, Ramirez’ career took off for real.  From 2004-2008 Ramirez did not hit under .288, nor did he hit under 26 home runs for any single season.  In fact, in the first three full seasons playing for the Cubbies, he hit over 30 HRs in each year, setting a new career high twice during that span.  If you take a look at his power while adjusting for ABs, you will find that Aramis has been fairly consistent throughout his career.

Skeptics will point to the fact that his AB/HR rate dropped from 2005-2008, but the reality of the situation is that his rate still places him among the best at the third base position.  With good power, a batting average that is well above average, and over 100 RBI in 6 out of 8 of those seasons, Aramis’ high draft position was well deserved.  Furthermore, in 2001-2008 (the time since he became a full time player barring 2009), note that he stayed fairly healthy, logging only one season with under 500 ABs.

Certain websites I have read refer to the fact that he has played in over 150 games in only 3 seasons, but the fact is that in only one season has he lost enough time to decrease his value in a significant fashion.  His BB/9 Rate has gotten better over his career, and his K/9 rate has ticked up only slightly.  Overall, this track record is one of a hitter that has good plate discipline, good power, good health, and the ability to put up numbers (which while not spectacular) can greatly help your fantasy baseball team.

2009

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In 2009, Aramis Ramirez met with his first serious loss of playing time due to injury since becoming a full-time player.  If you owned him last season, this could sour you on his value for the 2010 fantasy baseball season.  However, if you look closer, you should be even more enamored by his numbers.  Ramirez posted a .317 BA (the second highest of his career), 15 HR, and 65 RBI in only 306 ABs.  Once you do the math, you will see that 2009 was among his best seasons if you adjust for the lack of playing time.  His AB/HR rate was 20.4, his RBI count was still over 100 pro-rating it over a full season, and his OBP was at a career high.  Even his BB/K rate ticked up in this 2009.

These are not signs of a player in decline.  In fact, I find it impressive that despite losing so much playing time to a dislocated shoulder, his power remained largely unaffected, as did his secondary statistics.  With an entire off-season to recover, you can expect that his stats will make a rebound to the levels he has established over the last many seasons.

Fantasy Implications

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This is the year to grab Aramis Ramirez.  In keeper leagues, it is possible that he will be available for the first time in many seasons.  Fantasy GMs that are just casually looking at their fantasy magazines will see that he was hurt, and only hit 15 HRs.  You, on the other hand, know that his AB/HR rate, and other stats did not decline at all.  Fantasy baseball is all about value.  Value is all about perception.  The perception which his 2009 stat-line gives to the casual observer is that his power dropped drastically, and that he was unable to stay healthy.  This should lead to a drop in his price in 2010 fantasy baseball auctions, or position in 2010 fantasy baseball drafts.  Jump on him if you can.

Since you are reading this, you are NOT the casual fantasy baseball observer, and you realize that the steady production should pick up right where it left off.  The batting average is certainly not going anywhere, the power has remained above average, and his potential to drive in 100 runs is high.  He could easily put up a season similar to Ryan Zimmerman or Evan Longoria, or Kevin Youkilis at a much lower price.  If he is available on your draft board late (which he probably will be), do not hesitate to draft him understanding that the decline in his numbers is only on the surface.

The average will be there, but what else?

The 2009 National League Rookie of the Year did not really put up the fantasy production we have come to expect from the winner of that distinguished award.  Chris Coghlan certainly had a fine season.  However, just because he won Rookie of the Year, doesn’t justify paying overpaying for him in your fantasy baseball auction.  Many GMs shelled out big bucks to protect or draft several of the recent ROY winners.  Recent winners of the N.L. ROY include: Ryan Braun, Hanley Ramirez, Ryan Howard, Jason Bay, and Albert Pujols.  Those names put up some incredible numbers in their rookie season, which made fantasy baseball GMs pay top dollar to either draft or protect those players.  Those who did were, for the most part, very happy with the results of their decision.

Yet there were some other names sprinkled in these last several years that did not pan out quite so well for owners that drafted them.  Those who decided to pay for Geovany Soto, Dontrelle Willis, Jason Jennings, and Scott Williamson (other recent N.L. ROY winners) were not quite so happy with the results.  Chris Coghlan could easily turn out to be a name on this second list.  So we ask that age old questions:  What are realistic fantasy baseball projections for Chris Coghlan in 2010?  and, How much should you pay for him in your 2010 fantasy baseball auction?

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Minor League Career

On the positive side, there are not a whole lot of minor league statistics for us to examine for Coghlan.  He played in at least part of 3 minor league seasons from 2006-2008, for a total of 277 games and just over 1000 ABs.  While this may make it harder to predict what he will do in the major leagues, it is a sign that his managers and coaches thought he was progressing nicely, and had the talent to perform in the show.  During his minor league stint, Coghlan accrued a BA of .293, an OBP of .384, and walked more than he struck out (BB-142, SO-137).  These are all great signs for Coghlan’s ability to hit.  Plate discipline is one of the major stumbling blocks that cause many a baseball prospect to falter and fail to achieve greatness.  Fortunately for those who will pay the price for Coghaln, he appears to be able to dodge this particular bullet.

Batting average, however, is only part of the equation you must calculate when looking at what Coghlan may do in the 2010 season.  While Coghlan can hit the occasional home run, he did not prove to be a power hitter in the minors.  He managed to hit only 19 home runs in the aforementioned 3 seasons.  So while the 24 year-old may develop more power as he ages, there is no indication that he will suddenly develop the power that fantasy GMs are looking for.  He did steal a good amount of bases while playing in the minors.  At his longest minor league stop (483 ABs for AA-Carolina) he stole 34 bases.  Granted, he was also caught 10 times, but it does show that he has the speed to make an impact on one’s fantasy roster if he were given the green light on the base-paths.

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2009

Chris Coghlan had a good 2009 season.  Well, let’s be a little more specific.  He had a awesome second half to the 2009 season.  In the first half, Coghlan hit a meager .245 over 200 ABs.  No big deal though, since it was his first appearance in the show, and struggles can be expected for a young player.  The second half of the season was completely different.  Coghlan hit .372 in his 304 ABs after the All-Star Break with an OBP of .423.  Sick numbers, right?  For the season he hit over .300 against both left-handed and right-handed pitching.  He hit over .290 both at home and away.  Coghlan’s power numbers were right in line with his minor league stats, hitting a home run every 56 ABs.  Though he did hit 7 home runs after the All-Star Break versus 2 before.  While Coghlan showed speed in the minors, as stated above his successful stolen base rate was somewhat lacking.  This fact was even more apparent in the big leagues, as he was caught stealing 5 times in his 13 attempts.

Another departure from his minor league numbers was his 2009 BB/K rate (53BB/77K).  From walking more than striking out in the minors, to walking 24 times less than striking out is a significant decline.  The decline is troubling, yet his contact rate on balls he swung at was great (84.2%), and his contact rate on balls swung at in the strike zone was nuts (91.7%).  This leads me to believe that while he may not walk at as great a rate as he did in the minors, striking out will not be a big problem for Coghlan.  Thanks again to Fangraphs.com for their excellent stats.

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Warning Signs

The warning signs for Coghlan are not directly apparent.  Statistically, Coghlan has proven to be a competent major league hitter.  The only batting average related statistic that perhaps waves a small red flag is that his BABIP was 33 points higher on the big club in 2009 than it was in his 2008 minor league season (2009- .366, 2008- .333).  Despite this, it is a good bet that he will continue to hit for a good batting average. If he continues to hit at the top of the order, then he will continue to score runs.  That is, however, only two of the five major fantasy baseball scoring categories.  His power may spike for a season or two here or there, but he does not project to develop regular 20 HR power, especially while playing half his games at Land Shark Stadium.  His 47% ground ball rate, and low HR/FB rate support that premise.  While he was able to steal a good total of bases in the minors, he managed to steal only 8 bases in 13 attempts during 2009.  This is a miserable success rate, let alone for a lead-off hitter.  In fact, his rate was only 50% over the second half of 2009 (4SB, 4CS).  If this was a technique issue, his success rate should have climbed as he was coached on how to steal at the major league level.  So while he has the on-base skills to maintain his standing as a top of the order hitter, there is only so much that he can do with those opportunities.

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Fantasy Implications

Coghlan has gotten a ton of press since the All-Star Break of 2009.  To be honest, his profile is higher than it should be.  He is a nice fantasy commodity if you are looking for a 4th outfielder.  He will help you negate another active player’s terrible batting average, and score more runs than the average player.  However, if you are counting on him to take another big step forward in the power and speed categories, you are asking to be disappointed.  There is nothing that shows that he is going to grow significantly in those areas.  Coghlan won the award, which means everyone will know his name.  With a second half batting average so high, people will know his stats.  The point is that you are not going to get him cheap unless you can protect him for the small price you drafted him for in 2009.  So we have a steady hitter that will score runs, not hit for much power, not steal for a few bases, that won a huge award causing everyone in your league to know who he is.

This is not a fantasy baseball sleeper.  This is not a breakout candidate.  This is a very nice piece that you can use on your team for the right price.  Bump his value up a bit if you can keep him or draft him at 2B.  The key is realizing that, and not paying to much to get him on your roster.  Batting average is nice, but it also fluctuates.  If you are depending on a player to hit for a high average to justify the price you are going to pay, and they don’t, that is just wasted money.  Despite all the stats that indicate that he will continue to hit well, stranger things have happened than a second-year player hitting significantly worse than he did in his rookie year.  Some bad luck and a downturn in his BABIP and the player you think of as your “stud, rookie of the year, keeper” is just a slightly better version of Skip Schumaker.

2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections: .308 BA, 11 HR, 42 RBI, 90 R, 12 SB, 605 AB

"Zorilla" can be useful.

Every season there are players that step forward to have huge years, seemingly out of nowhere.  When we form our game-plan in the pre-season, we have to decide whether or not we believe that they can produce similar results again.  Just ask those people who paid a ton in 2009 for Ryan Ludwick or Carlos Quentin how it feels to be wrong about their guys.  Last season was no different in this regard.  Plenty of players that were unowned at the end of most fantasy auctions or drafts turned out to be valuable fantasy commodities for those that who were quick and smart enough to grab them.  Enter, Ben Zobrist.  He had a great season.  With 27 HR, 17 SB, and 91 RBI while hitting a robust .297, he is sure to get a lot of attention in fantasy debates this spring.  When you factor in that he qualifies in the outfield, second base, and shortstop in some leagues (13 games), those are some numbers that believers will pay a lot for, or reach for in drafts.  So now there are two questions to answer: 1) How much do you believe Zobrist will repeat those numbers?  and 2) What are you willing to pay for him if you believe he will?

Minors

Zobrist spent parts of five seasons in the minor leagues.  He was by no means a big power hitter during those years, but at 6′-3″, it is not surprising that he has developed power.  Zobrist was also not a huge speed threat.  While his success rate in the minors was not terrible, he does not have blazing speed (58 SB, 20 CS).  Zobrist was, however,  a good OBP player.  In every season, at every level (barring a 14 AB stint in 2008) Zobrist had an OBP of .400 or greater, and a batting average of over .300 in all but one season.  Walking more that striking out, his plate discipline cannot be ignored.

2009

On and off of the big club for the last several seasons, Zobrist struggled early.  Batting average was an issue, though in 2008 he took a step forward.  Especially at the end of 2008, Zobrist show flashes of what he was able to do.  His batting average came up, his OBP rose, and his power showed up for the first time at the major league level (12 HR in 198 ABs).  Zobrist credits this marked improvement to help from swing mechanic, Jaime Cevallos, and hitting coach Dan Heefner.  They broke his swing down, and rebuilt it.  They convinced him that he did not have to sacrifice power for average, and the results are hard to argue with.

When the opportunity to play regularly early in 2009 thanks to an injury to Akinori Iwamura, Zobrist made the most of it.  After an April in which Zobrist hit 4 HR and kept his batting average over .280, he received almost twice as many ABs in May.  Zobrist responded by hitting .313 with an OBP of .439 for the month.  Once he started, Zobrist really did not stop.  From that point on, he did not have a month with an OBP under .382, and had two more months over .400.  Even when his average stumbled one month (August – .242), he maintained a .383 OBP.  This corresponds very well with what he showed he was capable of when in the minor leagues.  His splits against lefties and righties don’t raise any red flags, though he does appear to hit lefties better (.319 BA-LHP, .287 BA-RHP).  While his second half was not awful, his slugging percentage, speed, and RBI totals declined in the second half.  With 2009 being his first season to even approach 500 ABs, it is not hard to believe that he tired down the stretch (only 3 HR in Sept and Oct combined).

Warning Signs

Of course, there are a few issues that raise red flags about Ben Zobrist.  Firstly, he is old to just now be breaking into the major leagues as an everyday player.  He will be 29 in May of 2010.  Players that break in that late tend to peak and decline quicker than those who break-out during their early 20’s.  I am also wary of players who have had sudden improvements so high above their baseline production.  The fact that there were swing coaches involved makes me feel a little better about it, but it makes me wonder what happens if/when he finds himself in his first real slump.  Will he revert to his older tendencies?  The speed he displayed was just gravy for his fantasy owners.  Yet with a borderline success rate, those SBs could disappear very quickly.  He only stole 6 bases on 9 attempts in the second half last season.  Finally, there is one weird stat out there that I noticed.  His batting average was 60 points lower when he played second base (.261) as opposed to outfield (.321).  It is an odd stat, but one that is worth noting since he is slated to start at second base for the 2010 season.

Fantasy Implications

Ben Zobrist is going to go for a good amount of bid money or an early pick in the 2010 season (relative to his 2009 draft day ranking).  He is a very attractive target for 2B, and if your league only requires 10 games for qualification, then he is even more attractive at shortstop.  In 2009, he truly put forth a 5 category effort.  I can find very few flaws with his splits, and his power has been fairly consistent for over a season now.  Would I consider him a keeper that I want on my team for years and years?  Probably not.  However, if I can grab him at shortstop this year and it doesn’t break my bank, I’m in.  Even if he regresses a bit, he will still be among the highest producing players at a very thin position.  Of course, if this is just the beginning and he is actually still improving, then you will have a real gem on your hands.  The most likely reality is that he gives some of that advance in production back.  That doesn’t mean is isn’t a valuable guy.  It just means that he does not rank at the top of the fantasy shortstop rankings with Hanley Ramirez, Troy Tulowitzki, Jimmy Rollins, Jose Reyes and Derek Jeter.  Though he could easily find a home just below that group if he can just maintin 90% of the numbers he put up in 2009.  If your league shows any hesitation about this guy, my advice is to take the gamble and jump.  My projections for him: 25 HR, 90 RBI, 85 R, 9 SB, .282 BA.

Expectations are high for Troy Tulowitzki

Troy Tulowitzki has gone from “Superstar shortstop-to be,” to “King of the slow start,” to “Who the heck cares about the slow start?” in two quick years. One season removed from his turbulent 2008 campaign, Tulo broke out. He played in over 150 games, which may have been the most important news considering the serious injury he suffered in 2008, but it goes beyond that. Tulo’s power really showed up with a career-high 32 home runs, an eight home run jump over his previous best of 24 long balls in 2007. Even better was the spike in speed. Troy’s 20 stolen bases nearly tripled his previous-best 7 swipes in 2007. Is maintaining that jump a realistic request from fantasy owners? Will 2010’s overall numbers be worth the price? These are the questions potential Tulowitzki investors need to ask.

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The “Slow Start” Syndrome

What better place to start than where Tulowitzki owners have found themselves in April and May for the last two seasons; wondering if they’d made a mistake. There’s no doubt that Tulo is getting a rep for starting slow and finishing strong, which is probably easier to deal with than the reverse problem of starting strong and stumbling to the finish, an affliction know as Dan Haren-itis. But what, if any, are the pitfalls of such a player?

Let’s start by saying that this label would go away with a solid, wire-to-wire campaign. Remember, Tulowitzki was just 24 years old this season, so there’s plenty of time to make this reputation evaporate. However, a responsible fantasy owner needs to calculate the “slump’s” negative value, until on-the-field performance shows it’s no longer necessary. Since Tulo plays virtually every day, the only area this slump truly affects is his trade value.

Guys like Dan Haren and Mike Lowell who have had the reputation for wearing down are tough to trade because people are concerned with what they’ll be locked into after their fantasy league’s trade deadline. On the other hand, guys like Tulowitzki present a different issue. Owners know they’re supposed to break out in the second half, but it’s tough to pull the trigger in those early months when the player in question is below the Mendoza Line. The point here is this. To get the full value of what you’ll have to pay for Tulowitzki this season, a fantasy owner should be committed to riding it for the entire season. Of course, if an opportunity arises, there’s always room to readjust, but this premise is something owners need to understand about Troy’s value right now.

Here’s the bright side. He might do what Robinson Cano did this season. Cano has been a disappointment for fantasy owners, always teasing them with .320 batting average ability, but slow starts have made more than a few owners grey. Then poof; 2009. Cano seized on the potential that was there and rocked it. Tulowitzki had 32 home runs, with over 90 runs and RBIs apiece in the 2009 season that included one of these slow starts. Just imagine what he would do if he hit the ground running in 2010.

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Defense

This may seem like a sudden topic shift, but once in a while a player’s defense is either so good or so bad, that they’re offensive output is affected. If a player has a bad habit of booting balls, he’ll eventually lose those precious at-bats. Likewise, a player who makes himself indispensable in the field, especially at one of the defensive-oriented positions of C, 2B, SS or CF is sure to be in lineup daily. Even with the slow start, Tulowitzki’s at-bats were never in doubt because Troy’s defense is superb, highlighted by a rocket-firing arm.

There is a certain value afforded the owner of a player who will likely reach 600 at-bats. That owner can accept the projected offensive stats with more assurance, since a key component to calculating those numbers(at bats) is not only not a variable, but is pinned at maximum output. Dustin Pedroia is another solid defensive middle infielder who delivers very reliable stats for his owners, in large part because of his 600-or-so bites at the apple each season.

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2010 Projections:

Tulowitzki is coming off that breakout season we all want our players to have, but what now? Once is a blip; two is a trend. If he can come close to repeating his 2009 season next year, then he has the opportunity to move up in value at the relatively thin shortstop position. Many players get here, but only some follow through.

The signs point to a near-repeat of last season’s numbers. For one, the slow start issue can be seen as an area for improvement; a place where solid play could shift the numbers upward.

2009 was not a statistical best in runs or RBIs, but came up just 10 runs and RBIs combined short of 2007’s totals, a year in which Tulowitzki had more than 60 extra at-bats to work with. This makes it clear to me. With the at-bats in hand, and Tulowitzki coming into his own, 2010 will be a very fun year for owners of this Rockies shortstop; maybe more fun at the end than the beginning, but fun nonetheless.

So is it worth paying the price this year? Accept that you he needs to be part your entire 2010 plan; not trade bait. Accept that he’s like a locomotive that takes a while to get going and don’t get frustrated when he’s driving you nuts. Remember. You invested for the entire season package. If you can accept these base premises about your 2010 investment in Troy Tulowitzki, then you should go get him.

And here’s the bonus for keeper league owners. If he does have that wire-to-wire run, the resultant stats will be off the wall and the label of “slow starter” will be replaced by that of a cornerstone player.

Expect the slump. Root for the quick start. And in the meantime, punch these stats into your model:

2010 Projections: 605 at-bats/.289 ba/31 HR/105 runs/101 rbis/16 sb

Doubt the power... not the talent

Season-ending, head-scratching is part of the fun of fantasy baseball. So many 2009 owners spent an arm and leg to make sure they had a top-notch shortstop. When all was said and done, how many asked themselves, “Why didn’t I get Jason Bartlett and spend my Hanley Ramirez-money elsewhere?” In case you didn’t notice, this Tampa SS put up a monster year, hitting .320 with a .389 OBP to go with 14 home runs, 30 stolen bases, 90 runs and 66 rbis — all career highs. So the question becomes, will Bartlett play well enough in 2010 to warrant the added attention he will surely garner on draft day?

Minors

It may seem odd to take a look a 30 year-old player’s minor league history, but there is one thing to note about Bartlett. He is a product of the Twins organization. The Twins minor league system has this amazing ability to turn out players who do what they’re supposed to do.  Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Scott Baker of recent note, Bartlett was also a member of that fraternity, and was always touted as a contact, line-drive hitter with better-than-average speed and a good glove. This is basically the skill set that has made him an everyday major leaguer.

2009

Those who have followed Bartlett’s slow (sometimes painfully slow), rise as a serious fantasy option at SS were properly enticed by what had always been a cheap source of stolen bases. When an owner didn’t get Option 1 or 2 at shortstop, Bartlett was a decent choice because of his ability to swipe a bag, even at the detriment of power and RBIs. The 2009 season has thrown that all out the window; Bartlett had a career year.

As 2009 unfolded, many believed Bartlett’s numbers would fade, especially his batting average and power. After a minor hamstring injury slowed him for a bit, the excuse was there for the slide to begin. He hit .247 in the month of July. August days are supposed to be the “dog days” where worn out players finally fall off, but after that slow July, Bartlett got it cranking again, hitting .356 in August. He slowed a little again to the finish line, but was out there everyday, right up to the end. He finished with a stolen base in 5 of his final 6 games of the season. There is no doubt. 2009 was a spectacular, wire-to-wire effort for Bartlett, but what should we be concerned about?

Warning Signs

There are quite a few things that flash “Stay Away!!!” when a player has a breakout season. For starers, there’s history. Past baseball drafts are strewn with the carcasses of teams built around players who were coming of off huge seasons. How many 2004 drafts had wild bidding on Esteban Loaiza after his 21 win/207 strikeout 2003? There was plenty of evidence that Loaiza wasn’t going to repeat that effort and only a little evidence that he might.

That, of course, is an extreme example, but it is more likely that Bartlett fits into the Adrain Beltre mode; a guy who was all upside until his 48 home run outburst in 2004, then became a disappointment as owners spent 48 home run dollars to get 19 home run production. With both Beltre and Bartlett, there is a history of stats leading up to the explosion. Owners need to realize that the price for Bartlett will probably be too high, but the question is, what will his stats for 2010 be?

Before we get to those projections, let’s go over the remaining Bartlett-specific issues in the numbers. As mentioned earlier, these were career numbers across the board and in some instances, complete outliers. Home runs jumps out as the category that seems least likely to repeat. Bartlett had a career total of 11 home runs entering the 2009 season, and this 29-year old, was able to more-than-double that total. It’s possible that he’s found a power stroke, but to pay, expecting 14 home runs every 500 at-bats(as it was in 2009) is silly. If you pay and get them, consider yourself lucky. The good news is that you aren’t(or shouldn’t be) drafting Bartlett for his power. If you got 9 instead of 14, your team shouldn’t be all that affected.

Further, the other numbers do seem a bit tough to repeat, but at least there’s some precedent. If you’re concerned about the batting average, don’t be. Just expect a .290 average when you’re putting your squad together and be happy with everything you get over that. A .290 batting average is more than attainable and actually leaves you plenty of upside. See, if you build expecting a .290 average and get a .305 batting average, you will be in good shape, as it will fill in for the failings of other players, where if you expect the repeat at .320, then get that .305, your team will actually be in the hole. Instead of that .305 helping, it hurts, so the lesson here is plan wisely. Don’t expect too much from certain players and it will force you to be realistic about the stats you need from the rest of your team.

Good News and Projections:

An interesting bit of news has been floating out there that potential Bartlett owners should keep an eye on. The Rays, flush with the excitement after their great 2008 run, went out and spent some money, primarily on Pat Burrell. Well, 2009 wasn’t so good, especially at the gate, and that put the Rays in a difficult situation. They may be forced to move a major salary, and the word is that Carl Crawford might be shipped out for prospects. If this happens, Jason Bartlett would become the primary option to bat leadoff, with some time in the two-hole.  It also means almost no time at the bottom of the order, which is where he often found himself in 2009. Remember, the blow out stats for Bartlett came in just 500 at-bats this season. Even if you believe that the home runs will decline, the raw number, with extra at-bats, may not look all that different. As it was, Bartlett was only hitting one home run every 36 at-bats. Let’s say that moves to one every 50 at-bats, but Bartlett ends up with 600 at-bats on the season; that’s still 12 home runs. As discussed earlier, you aren’t really getting Bartlett for the home runs, but that same math applies to all the other categories you care about. In 2009, Bartlett scored 90 times, while batting 7th, 8th or 9th in the order for a combined 65 games. If Bartlett is hitting 1st or 2nd for the entire season(or even most of the season), he will set another career high in runs scored in 2010, as he will be sure to be in triple-digits for the first time. The Crawford situation is one a swift fantasy owner will watch closely. If Crawford is dealt, the price for this SS might suddenly be a lot easier to swallow. If all that happens, get Bartlett for sure, but for now, I would work off the following stat projections:

2010 Prediction: 530 abs/.290 ba/9 HR/90 runs/65 rbi/27 sb