Starting Pitchers

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Top Tier:  Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia, Johan Santana, Dan Haren, Zack Greinke, Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez

Tim Lincecum is just awesome.  He shows no signs of slowing down.  Roy Halladay had a strong case to win the A.L. Cy Young Award in 2009.  Other names come and go, Roy Halladay is still in the top tier.  CC Sabathia could win 15 games in his sleep on the mighty Yankees.  His ratios were still very good despite the home run bonanza at Yankee Stadium.  Johan Santana has been too good for too long to doubt.  I have no problems believing that he will have a very strong 2010.  Zach Greinke actually did win the A.L. Cy Young Award, and was excellent in 2009.  With his anxiety issues behind him, and 4 “plus” pitches, he could be atop this list for a long time.

Dan Haren’s numbers in 2009 were excellent even with a second half that was very pedestrian.  If he could just put it together for a full season, he could be the best pitcher in the game.  Justin Verlander finally had that complete breakout season.  Once the lid is off of the strikeout jar, I expect them to keep coming.  He got his ratios under control from a down 2008, putting up his third year out of four with an ERA under 4.0.  Felix Hernandez took a nice step forward in 2009.  He got his BB rate back down, and his HR rate dropped for the third straight season.  His BABIP in 2009 was a little low, so his ratios may uptick slightly.

Second Tier:  Adam Wainwright, Jon Lester, Cliff Lee, Josh Beckett, Chris Carpenter, Cole Hamels, Javier Vazquez, Matt Cain, John Lackey, Brandon Webb, Jake Peavy, Clayton Kershaw, Yovani Gallardo, Ubaldo Jimenez, Ted Lilly, Josh Johnson, Jair Jurrjens

These guys are still very good options, and many of them are capable of putting up first tier numbers.  Some had off years, some are one category short of being great, and some have yet to provide enough track record to justify paying top tier prices.  To all of you Adam Wainwright owners that don’t like seeing his name this low:  Chill.  If he does in 2010 what he did in 2009, he will be in the top tier.  Personally, I am not willing to pay what is going to be top dollar for a guy with such a short track record of first tier type success.  All of Jon Lester’s numbers are headed in the right direction for a breakout season.  With a rising K rate, a falling BB rate, and BAA that has dropped two straight years, this could be the last chance to get him without paying very top dollar (if it isn’t too late already).  Cliff Lee got shipped off to Seattle.  The ballpark there will help him, but the supporting cast and the change back to the American League will not.  Josh Beckett always seems to be in the second tier.  His stats tick up, and his stats tick down.  However, he just does not seem to be able to stay at the top of the fantasy baseball pitching rankings.

Chris Carpenter managed to stay healthy in 2009, and he was just as good as we remembered.  I kept waiting for the wheels to come off that bus, and it just kept rolling.  There is definitely still a little risk of injury with him, but he is good enough when healthy to lead your rotation.  Cole Hamels not only had an off-year, but his post-season comments are sure to cost him positions in 2010 snake drafts.  Grab him.  He is so good, and this is a buy low opportunity of which smart GMs will take advantage.  His BABIP was 55 points higher in 2009 than in 2008, and his BB/9 rate was unchanged.  I am skeptical that Javier Vazquez will have as much success in 2010 as he did in 2009.  The change back to the American League along with the move from a pitchers park to one that favors hitters could spell higher ratios.  Beware.  Matt Cain just keeps plugging along and getting better with age.  There are a couple of signs that his ratios will correct towards his career averages.  Firstly, his BABIP was .268 in 2009, that was well under his usual.  Also, he let up his highest HR rate of his career in 2009.  Although wins may continue to be a problem on the lowly Giants, he remains a quality investment.    John Lackey continues to be a good option, however two straight seasons pitching under 200 innings are a warning sign not to chase him too far.

The next two pitchers have been staples in the top tier in recent years.  Brandon Webb has perhaps the best sinker in the game.  He had shoulder problems that cost him all of 2009, and is a high risk/reward play in 2010.  Watch him in the spring and adjust your price on his health.  Jake Peavy is not only coming back from injury, but now moves to the American League and a hitter’s park.  That did not seem to slow him down at all at the end of 2009.  Unlike Javier Vazquez (who has a mixed track record of success and failure), Peavy has given us no reason to believe that the change in scenery will result in any difference in his stats except more wins.  Ted Lilly had a great season interrupted by injury in 2009, but should remain a low-profile source of wins and good ratios.

The next five starters are youngsters with great promise.  Clayton Kershaw made Dodger fans drool at what he did in a short 2009.  As a fantasy GM, contain that drool until you see his price.  His K/9 rate stood at 9.74, his BAA was .198, and he only gave up 119 hits in 171.0 IN.  If he can just get control of that high walk rate, this kid could be something to watch.  The fact that many youngsters never really overcome that problem is why you need to contain that drool.  Like Kershaw, Yovani Gallardo is some control away from being included in the next generation of elite pitchers.  With a K/9 rate in 2009 that was even better than Kershaw, he too has dominant stuff, holding batters to a .223 average in 2009.

Ubaldo Jimenez took another big step forward last year, improving on both his K/9 and BB/9 rates.  Despite pitching in Colorado, his ability to get ground-ball outs have kept home runs from being an issue.  Of the group, Josh Johnson has the best control. His allowed the fewest walks of the group in 2009, and his K rate was only a bit lower than Kershaw and Gallardo.  In that ballpark, he could even improve on these numbers.  Jair Jurrjens is only 24 years old this season.  He built a second excellent campaign on top of a great rookie season.  Across the board, his numbers improved.  The potential is there to increase the strikeouts as he gets stronger.

Third Tier:  James Shields, A.J. Burnett, Jered Weaver, Matt Garza, Scott Baker, Chad Billingsley, Scott Kazmir, Tommy Hanson, Roy Oswalt, Carlos Zambrano, Ricky Nolasco, J.A. Happ, Francisco Liriano, Max Scherzer, Ryan Dempster, John Danks, Rich Harden, Andy Pettitte, Derek Lowe, Neftali Feliz, Clay Buchholz, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Brett Anderson,

James Shields was quite the disappointment in 2009.  He let up a career high in home runs, let up 20 more hits than innings pitched, and his walk rate was the worst since his first season in the show.  Perhaps he should go back to working mostly fastball/chageup and less of the curveball.  He has good odds for a rebound but don’t overlook his struggles.  A.J. Burnett’s ratios (as expected) were not excellent, but thats what happens when you let up 21 home runs and walk 97 batters. He did pitch over 200 innings in back to back seasons for the first time.  He also came through with the strikeouts, but only 13 wins was disappointing.  This is what Burnett is, and there is no reason to expect drastic improvement (except for wins, since the Yankees are a scoring machine).

Scott Baker showed flashes of brilliance in 2009.  Since he has excellent control (as shown by just issuing 48 walks in over 200 innings during 2009), his WHIP is above average.  After the All-Star Break he went 8-2 with a 3.28 ERA.  If you are looking for a mild sleeper that could outperform his price greatly, this is where you should look.  Chad Billingsley was cruising right along through the first half of 2009 putting up numbers right in line with the stats that made GMs pay large amounts in auctions.  The second half of the season, those stats took a sharp turn downward.  His owners were looking for fewer walks, but Billingsley’s BB/9 rate remained unchanged.  While his ERA went up close to a run, his BAA actually went down 10 points.  Take the discount and run.

Whichever GM in your league goes for the “next big thing” every season will go after Tommy Hanson this year.  I personally would rather go for one of the above options that are more proven.  Hanson may be good, but 124 innings is not enough of a sample size for me to pay what my competition will.  It seems everywhere I look, Ricky Nolasco is ranked absurdly high.  He definitely has huge upside, and in 2009 his K/9 rate went up significantly.  It is the 23 home runs that worry me.  His control is above average for a pitcher his age, so if he can keep the ball in the yard, he can quickly improve on that 5.06 ERA he posted in 2009.  If that ERA scares away other owners and the price remains reasonable, grab him.  If it enters 2nd tier prices, let him go.  Supposedly, Francisco Liriano is pitching very well with good velocity in winter ball.  With the amount of time that has gone by since he has been good, and the numbers he has put up since, Liriano will be cheaper than ever.  If he is healthy this spring, he will be an excellent gamble.

J.A. Happ made a strong case for National League Rookie of the Year.  I am not as impressed as a fantasy GM.  He is a fly-ball pitcher in a hitter’s ballpark.  His K/9 rate was only 6.45 in 2009, and his LOB% was very high.  While Happ will be a name everyone knows in your league, he is not one that will be worth the gamble.  As you have read, I usually downgrade a pitcher for moving from the National League to the American League.  The one case this season where that is not true is in the case of Max Scherzer.  The ballpark in Detroit is more friendly to pitchers, and the Tigers will win more games than the Diamondbacks.  Scherzer has good stuff, a nice K rate, and could take a nice step forward on a team that is actually competitive.  After a strong 2008, most of Ryan Dempster’s numbers ticked down towards his career averages in 2009.  It looks like his new improved control is for real, but he will never be a great pitcher for WHIP purposes.  It is the same old story for Rich Harden.  If he is healthy, he could be one of the top pitchers in the game.  Now he also has to pitch half his games in a hitter’s ballpark.

Clay Buchholz has four good pitches and could emerge this season as a good fantasy asset.  It is true that Boston is a tough place to break into the big leagues and find immediate success, but if he does it will be huge for fantasy purposes.  He reminds me a bit of Zack Greinke.  Neftali Feliz has my Ranger-fan-friend very excited.  He has the K-rate, but needs some more control.  There is upside here, fantasy baseball sleeper alert!!  It now appears that Daisuke Matsuzaka was injured for pretty much all of 2009.  It sounds a little bit like an excuse (since this news just was revealed recently), but a rebound is possible.  I would not pay as though it were certain, though.  Brett Anderson appears to have both the K-rate and the control to be a very good fantasy asset.  Could be a late sleeper, but a short track record makes him a less than certain bet.

Fourth Tier:  Scott Feldman, Joe Blanton, Randy Wolf, Mark Buehrle, Tim Hudson, Jonathan Sanchez, Aaron Harang, Kevin Millwood, Gavin Floyd, Dave Bush, Joe Saunders, Kevin Slowey, Erik Bedard, Hiroki Kuroda, Wandy Rodriguez, Rick Porcello, Edwin Jackson, Joba Chamberlain, Ben Sheets, Stephen Strasburg, Randy Wells, Joel Pineiro, Johnny Cueto, Brad Penny, Barry Zito, Ervin Santana, Aroldis Chapman, John Maine

Scott Feldman was surprisingly effective in 2009.  His 17 wins could draw some attention, but his ratios and mediocre strikeout rate could keep him of the radar.  If you throw out the 6 innings he pitched as a reliever (and gave up 9 runs) his numbers for the season get even more impressive.  He also faded down the stretch, posting his worst ERA in September.  I am just not a Joe Blanton fan.  He has not let up fewer hits than innings pitched since 2005, and he let up a career high HR/9 rate in 2009.  His LOB% was also a career high, indicating that more of his base runners will score in 2010.  Randy Wolf had an amazing season in 2009.  Treat it like what it is, a very nice, outlier of a season that fantasy GMs will overpay for.  Mark Buehrle threw a perfect game in 2009, and that will only add to how overrated he is in a fantasy sense.  He has not let up fewer hits than innings pitched since 2002.  I like that Ben Sheets has wound up in Oakland.  The ballpark is excellent for pitchers, and the low-pressure and expectations for the A’s will work in his favor.  He swears he is healthy, but all fantasy baseball GMs should know that it is still a risk.

Jonathan Sanchez has the Ks, but his control is still a long way from being a fantasy asset (2009- 163.3 IN, 88 BB).  Once he gets that control, look out.  Dave Bush’s season would not have been so bad if not for a come-backer that tore his bicep.  He never got back on track after that.  A late flier at best.  Ben Sheets is still a free agent at the time of this posting.  Even if he signs with a good team, his injury history make him a gamble.  Rick Porcello has some serious upside.  He is only 22 years old and is already finding success to the tune of 14 wins.  A little more control and a little more strength that comes with age, and he could be a gem.  If you haven’t been paying attention, you may have missed Hiroki Kuroda’s nice 2009 season.  He has yet to throw 200 innings in a season, but his numbers show that he has the ability to be effective when healthy.

Stephen Strasburg is supposedly a phenom, but it remains to be seen how much he will pitch in 2010.  He will most likely be overpriced.  Joba Chamberlain’s numbers are all moving in the wrong direction.  A Yankee pitcher over-hyped?  Wow.  Johnny Cueto did not really make much progress in 2009.  In fact his K/9 rate got worse.  Dusty Baker doesn’t care though, because he has a new young arm to abuse. Aroldis Chapman made a bad decision to sign with the Reds.  He will get his chance to shine this season, and if he is good Dusty will wear that arm out.  Recent reports have John Maine healthy again.  He was seen as a high upside pitcher after a good 2007, and will be a late sleeper for 2010.

Fifth Tier: Clayton Richard, Justin Masterson, Chris Volstad, David Price, Nick Blackburn, Luke Hochevar, Brian Matusz, Marc Rzepczynski, Jorge de la Rosa, Gil Meche, Jeff Niemann, Bronson Arroyo, Chris Young, Kevin Correia, Ricky Romero, Jason Hammel, Kenshin Kawakami, Kyle Lohse, Mike Pelfrey, Paul Maholm, Matt Latos, Shaun Marcum, Zach Duke, Bud Norris, Felipe Paulino, Garrett Mock, Trevor Cahill, Wade Davis, Brandon Marrow, Brett Cecil, David Huff, Gio Gonzalez, John Lannan, Jeremy Guthrie, Jon Garland, Koji Uehara, Manny Parra, Robinson Tejada, Ross Ohlendorf, Ryan Rowland-Smith, Carl Pavano, Scott Richmond, Sean West

Once you get this low, the upside starts getting thin.  After all, we are talking about a lot of 4th and 5th starters here (many on bad teams).  It may be time to think about grabbing a reliever that can help you in the ratios instead of taking on the risk a bad starter represents.  Brian Matusz has showed some upside in 8 starts in 2009, but is so young he should only be taken as a late flier.  Marc Rzepczynski only had a 61 inning sample size in the show last year, but his minor league track record make him a nice sleeper.  If he looks like he has earned a roster spot in the late spring, don’t hesitate to push him up your draft board a little.  Jeff Niemann also looked good in his rookie season.  His K rate leaves something to be desired, but he has upside.  Kenshin Kawakami may or may not have a rotation spot in 2010.  If he does he showed enough to make him worth drafting late.

Outfield

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Top Tier:  Ryan Braun, Carl Crawford, Matt Kemp, Jacoby Ellsbury, Matt Holliday, Justin Upton, Jason Bay

Some of the best power and speed mixes in fantasy baseball are in this tier.  Ryan Braun has hit non-stop since joining the major league club.  He hits for power, a high batting average, and even set a career high in stolen bases in 2009.  He is only 26 years old.  Carl Crawford proved that he wasn’t finished after a mediocre 2008, finishing 2009 with 60 SBs and his highest home run total since 2006.  He even got that batting average over .300 to prove himself once again a 5-category threat.  Matt Kemp has the potential to take over the number one slot if he improves again in 2010.  Showing the ability to produce in all five categories, he tops my list for likely members of the 30-30 club in 2010.  Jacoby Ellsbury is a stolen base machine, and he apparently knows it.  He likes to steal, and wants to set milestones.  Expect it to continue in 2010.

Now that Matt Holliday has had a productive season away from Colorado, his price will go back up in 2010.  His power could grow a bit more in 2010, and he even kept up the stolen bases in 2009.  More importantly he still hit over .300.  While not the most flashy pick, he is dependable.  Justin Upton has plenty of upside, but even if he can manage to reach last season’s totals, he is ready to lead your outfield corp.  One red light about Upton is that his BABIP was a little higher than usual in 2009.  Some people may balk at paying full price for Jason Bay in 2010 since he signed to play half his games at Citi-field.  Don’t be one of them.  All he has to do is increase his batting average in 2010 and he will be a bonafide leader of fantasy teams.  The Mets like to use speed on the bases, so even if Bay loses a little of his HR production, he will likely steal more bases.

Second Tier:  Grady Sizemore, Adam Dunn, Curtis Granderson, Manny Ramirez,  Shane Victorino, B.J. Upton, Bobby Abreu, Shin-Soo Choo, Nelson Cruz, Jayson Werth

Several of these players have been in the top tier before, and some may be there after 2010.  Grady Sizemore was a sure top 3 outfield pick in 2009 fantasy baseball drafts and auctions.  Injury ruined his season (along with many fantasy baseball teams).  The Indians are pathetic offensively (if not completely), so his runs and RBI totals may suffer.  However, his power and speed remain intact.  Adam Dunn put together his usual power-heavy season, but finally did so along with a batting average that was not a detriment to fantasy rosters.  It still wasn’t a good batting average, but it was better than usual.  I thought he was over priced before he raised that average in 2009.  In 2010 he will be even more expensive.  Curtis Granderson saw his value jump drastically in this off-season when he was traded from the Tigers to the Yankees.  It remains to be seen where he will hit in the batting order, but wherever it is, it will be better for his fantasy value than anyplace within the city limits of Detroit.  All he needs to do is raise that batting average against left-handed pitching (2009- .183) and he can join the elites in the outfield.  Manny Ramirez is, well, Manny.  I don’t think age is really a factor for him quite yet.  Expect another .300 average with 30ish home runs.  He is in a contract year, so perhaps he will take the game seriously in 2010 and uptick.

Nelson Cruz offered great power and even threw in 20 stolen bases for fantasy owners in 2009.  He figured out minor league pitching, but has needed some time to be effective on the big stage.  Now that he is here, he is not going back.  If he can just get that BB/K rate closer to what he did in 2008, he could be a star.  Note:  Cruz is 30 years old this year, so realize that before paying a premium in keeper-leagues.  Perhaps the most upside in this group is B.J. Upton.  We saw what he could do in his awesome first full season, but it seems he has taken a step back at the plate.  Believers in him took comfort in the fact that despite his drop in batting average and power from 2007 to 2008, his OBP remained almost identical.  In 2009, that OBP dropped by 70 points.  The drop in his 2009 walk rate is undeniable, and should the trend continue this season his supporters will start to fade.  This is the last season I would pay full price for him unless he takes a step forward.  Shin-Soo Choo went 20-20 in 2009.  He was one of only 7 OFs to accomplish that feat.  His production was more than solid, and in no month did he hit lower than he did in May (.274).  His splits against RHP and LHP are good, so it is not likely that he will lose his starting status to some sort of platoon.

Did Jayson Werth finally prove to all his doubters how good he is?  He stayed healthy all year, started all year, and wound up producing numbers that were worth of much more bid money than he went for in 2009 auctions.  Do not expect him to come so cheap this season.  A word of warning about Werth.  His breakout came late (he is 31 this year), so I would not count him among “core” team members that you want to build a keeper team around.  He’s good, but his shelf life is probably not going to be that long.

Third Tier:  Carlos Lee, Carlos Quentin, Nick Markakis, Andre Ethier, Adam Lind, Torii Hunter, Hunter Pence, Nyjer Morgan, Ben Zobrist, Michael Cuddyer, Michael Bourn, Nate McLouth, Adam Jones, Andrew McCutchen, Josh Hamilton, Brad Hawpe, Denard Span, Juan Pierre, Raul Ibanez, Nolan Reimold, Jermaine Dye, Jason Kubel, Ryan Ludwick

Carlos Lee may be boring, but he is money in the bank.  It appears that his power and speed peaked in 2006, but he is still good for solid production in 4 out of the 5 scoring categories.  Do not underestimate how valuable 20-something HRs is with 100 RBI and a .300 BA.  After all, only 13 outfielders hit .300 in 2009.  Of those 13, only 6 of them hit 20 or more HRs, and of those, only 4 also had 100 RBI.  There is value here.  I like Carlos Quentin to rebound in a big way in 2010. When looking at his injuries and numbers in 2009, that may scare away other GMs.  After all, he still has only one really successful season under his belt.  Realize, however, that his AB/HR ratio remained steady in 2009.  Coming into the season healthy should help him move back into the second tier for 2011.  Nick Markakis may be a little overrated.  He has never topped 23 HRs, both his BB rate and his OBP were the lowest of his career in 2009, and his steals total has dropped drastically since his breakout season in 2007.  Beware of spending too much on him.  There is one big difference between Nyjer Morgan and Michael Bourn.  That is:  Nyjer Morgan has a track record with a good batting average, and Bourn does not.  Like the old saying goes, you can’t steal first base.  Bourn’s increase in batting average for the 2009 season was a surprise.  Don’t be surprised if it sinks significantly lower in 2010.

Ben Zobrist is a nice player, but should be taken at one of the infield positions before his name comes up on the outfield depth chart.  Andre Ethier and Adam Lind are in a similar situation.  Both just had a breakout 2009 in which they hit over 30 HRs.  Lind’s breakout could be real if he sticks to what he did in 2009.  He improved his plate discipline in a big way.  His percentage of balls outside the strike zone swung at dropped significantly, and his walk rate increased as a result.  The Blue Jays appear to be in a rebuilding year, so beware that Lind may not have as much support around him in the lineup as you would like.  Andre Ethier got a shot to play every day in 2009 and made the most of it.  While his BB rate went up, so did his K rate.  His BABIP actually was lower in 2009 than 2008, so perhaps that batting average will rise a bit in 2010.  One potential stumbling block for Ethier is that he has trouble with left-handed pitching (BA vs. LHP: 2008- .243, 2009- .194).

Andrew McCutchen is one of those players that people are hoping to slip by as a sleeper, but there is just no way.  He is going to go for big bucks in auctions as GMs hope to grab the next big power/speed threat.  The fact that he is on the Pirates limits his production in runs and RBI.  If you want a lower-key potential breakout, look to Adam Jones.  He could be this season’s power/speed outfielder, and his numbers from 2009 are not as likely to draw the attention of your competition.  Nolan Reimold may break-out in a similar fashion in 2010.  He has a good BB/K rate, and does not swing at too many balls outside of the strike-zone.  He may even steals bases for you.  This spring, monitor the healthy of his recently operated-on Achilles tendon before you draft him.  Don’t go overboard, since he still has to prove he can hit at the major league level, but a modest bid could pay big dividends.

I am not a believer in Josh Hamilton.  When he was young, there was crazy hype surrounded by injuries and mysterious “personal problems”.  He finally dealt with his issues, and had one monster season.  Then, right back to the injuries with worse performance when he did play.  I don’t care about the night he spent in a bar, and do not think that he is much risk to fall into that lifestyle again.  I care about his ability to hit, which is far from proven.  He could have another good season, but some fantasy baseball magazines I have seen rank him as high as a top 10 outfielder.  The price he will bring for the risk he represents is too high.  Juan Pierre is a full-time player again, and his fantasy value will take a huge rebound.  After filling in very nicely for Manny Ramirez during his suspension, the White Sox are going to let him lead off in 2010.  He can still hit and steal bases, but will cost less than the last time he was a full time player.

Fourth Tier:  Chris Coghlan, Alfonso Soriano, Alex Rios, Marlon Byrd, Vernon Wells, Carlos Gonzalez, Jay Bruce, Johnny Damon, Franklin Gutierrez, Magglio Ordonez, Mike Cameron, Corey Hart, J.D. Drew, Garrett Jones, Julio Borbon, Jeff Francoeur, Carlos Gomez, Milton Bradley, Carlos Beltran, Coco Crisp, Chris Young, Josh Willingham, Kyle Blanks, Mark Teahen, Conor Jackson, Elijah Dukes, Mark DeRosa, Melky Cabrera, David Dejesus, Cody Ross, Rajai Davis, Lastings Milledge, Jose Guillen, Juan Rivera, Matt LaPorta

Chris Coghlan is a nice little player.  He will be overrated in 2010 fantasy baseball drafts, and overpriced too.  To read a complete analysis, read Coghlan’s Player Profile.  Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Beltran both appear to be in decline as well as significant injury risks.  Beltran now finds himself in trouble with the Mets due to a recent surgery which could jeopardize his status for opening day.  Do not pay for their names.  Alex Rios has the confidence of manager Ozzie Guillen.  He should play every day, and will likely rebound a good bit.  His reputation (both on and off the field) has taken a beating over the last year, so you may be able to steal him cheap.  Want a cheap option in the outfield that has both power and speed?  Look to Franklin Gutierrez.  He will fly under the radar at fantasy drafts and auctions, but has his playing time locked it, and can serve as an above average 3rd outfielder.  I am very skeptical of Marlon Byrd.  This guy has a fairly long track record, and 2009 was his first truly good season.  While his batting average has made progress over the last few seasons, the power came from nowhere and his BB rate was his lowest since 2002.

Julio Borbon is going to be one of the unproven players in 2010 auctions that goes for big money.  He may, however, be worth it.  He has been announced as a starter for 2010, and his speed and batting average appear to be for real.  He could even throw in above average power for a speedster in Arlington.  Speaking of potential that will cost you, Carlos Gonzalez put up enough of a stat-line that fantasy GMs are not going to look past him.  Highly touted, Gonzalez put up 13 HR and 16 SB in under 300 ABs.  I am hoping that Carlos Gomez will slip under the radar of my competition.  His batting average could be lower than I would like, but if his price matches, I like the upside he offers with a full-time job for the Brewers.  He is crazy fast, but keep your bidding low since his OBP has been under .300 for three straight seasons.  Kyle Blanks is another player who’s 2009 numbers are mediocre enough that he could slip under the radar.  The kid is huge, has huge power, and will start all season.  Sure, the ballpark and supporting cast hurt his numbers, but you aren’t drafting him to be your #1 outfielder.  As a #3 or 4 he should be above average.

Could this be the season that Jay Bruce finally establishes himself as a true fantasy asset?  Yes, I think so.  While the casual fantasy GM will look at the batting average drop he suffered in 2009, the secondary numbers paint a different picture.  His AB/HR ratio went up, his BB/K rate went up, and his BABIP for 2009 was absurdly low (.222).  If those GMs that loved him have soured on him due to his BA, grab him at a discount.  Power galore.  Conor Jackson had a very odd season in 2009.  He was suffering from valley fever, which is a disease caught from the spores of a desert fungi.  Wow.  He is tearing the cover off of the ball in the off-season, and should pick up where he left off in 2008, a potential breakout with a good BA.  He qualifies as a sleeper this year, since he is being ranked very low in many draft prep articles and fantasy baseball rankings.

Chris Young had a miserable 2009, and that continues a trend of bad news.  For two straight years his power has dropped.  For two straight years his batting average has dropped.  For two straight years, his stolen bases have dropped, his K rate has risen, and his OPS has dropped.  These are all very worrying signs.  Strangely, he did post his major league best BB rate in 2009 (though he didn’t use that to steal a single base after the All-Star Break).  He also picked up the pace in September and October, having his best month of the year.  If you can slip him by, he definitely still has good upside, but I would want him to fall into my lap rather than pay more than a couple dollars.

A similar disappointing season was turned in by Elijah Dukes.  This kid has all the talent in the world, but can’t seem to put it all together.  He is seeing fewer fastballs (49.1%-2009 vs. 56.9%-2008) and this helped him put up the worst K rate of his major league career (20.3%).  Another number of note for Dukes in 2009: 3 SB, 10 CS.  Rajai Davis is another player who’s numbers from 2009 will prevent him from having “sleeper” status in 2010 fantasy baseball auctions.  There is no such thing as a sleeper that put up 40+ stolen bases the season before.  I would like to see his K rate get a little better if he is to bat leadoff, but his minor league numbers support his 2009 batting average.

Fifth Tier: Delmon Young, Luke Scott, Aaron Rowand, Xavier Nady, Nick Swisher, Jack Cust, Gerardo Parra, Jake Fox, Garret Anderson, Randy Winn, Ryan Garko, Willy Taveras, Skip Schumaker, Scott Podsednik, Colby Rasmus, Ryan Church, Chris Dickerson, Kosuke Fukudome, Matt Diaz, Jonny Gomes, Carlos Guillen, Travis Snider, Dexter Fowler, Andruw Jones, Rick Ankiel, Brett Gardner

Andruw Jones was at least productive in 2009.  He has a chance to get even more ABs in 2010, and could improve more.  Gerardo Parra will have to play well to receive playing time in what could become a crowded Arizona outfield, but he has upside.  Scott Podsednik still has a little juice left in his legs.  Just don’t forget that 2009 was his first season with over 215 ABs since 2006.  Chris Dickerson improved his BB/K rate in 2009, and could show more power in 2010.  He is a qualified post-hype sleeper pick if he can manage to get the ABs.  Matt Diaz’ batting average against RHP will keep him from ever truly claiming a full-time gig.  Colby Rasmus has power, but his batting average is a concern, especially against lefties.  Dexter Fowler is a nice sleeper.  His numbers against righties are not great, but he smokes lefties, and will start from day one in 2010.

Shortstop

—————–

Top Tier : Hanley Ramirez

There are those in the second tier at shortstop that may put up studly seasons here and there, but there is only one Hanley Ramirez.  With power, speed, and average, he remains alone at the top of the heap.  I would really love to see what he could do with a better lineup around him and a better hitter’s park to call home.  Regardless, he is guaranteed fantasy baseball gold, and should be considered as one of the top 2 or 3 commodities overall.

Second Tier : Jimmy Rollins, Troy Tulowitzki, Derek Jeter, Jose Reyes, Jason Bartlett, Ben Zobrist

Jimmy Rollins was a fantasy team killer in the first half of 2009.  With a crazy rebound in the second half, his end of the year stat line was still worth a hefty bid.  He still has power and will still steal bases.  The Phillie lineup is as good as ever, and Rollins has shown the pedigree in his past to believe that his batting average could rebound in a huge way in 2010.  If you can get him at a discount, jump.  Troy Tulowitzki also had a slow start to 2009.  In fact, in one of my keeper leagues his owner offered him up in every deal he proposed for over a month.  He couldn’t move Tulo, and now he is really happy about it.  While I do not believe that he will match his 2009, he is still worth your bid money.  Just don’t go overboard.

Derek Jeter has been doing it for years, but 2009 was his first truly excellent fantasy season since 2006.  As a Yankee fan I love him.  As a fantasy GM that loves to win, I pass.  His name and the fact that his numbers took an uptick in 2009 are going to drive his price through the roof.  For a complete breakdown and analysis as to why I feel Jeter is going to be priced too high, see my Overrated Fantasy Hitters article.

Jose Reyes may be the superstar who saw his value decrease the most due to his poor and injury-riddled 2009 season.  He was a top 4 pick in 2009 snake drafts, and commanded huge bid money in fantasy baseball auctions.  Hamstring problems (let alone ones that require surgery like Reyes’ did) are a huge problem for players who’s primary fantasy asset is speed.  It is the classic high risk/reward decision.  If Reyes is healthy, he will likely pick up where he left off.  Which is as one of the best fantasy players in the game.  If these injuries resurface, he could lose valuable ABs to the disabled list.  Someone in your league will be willing to pay for him as if 2009 never happened.  Don’t be that guy.  Adjust his price to reflect the risk you are taking, and don’t chase him past that point.

Ah, now we come to the two names that people will have a problem with being placed so high in this report.  Jason Bartlett had one of the largest upticks in value due to his monster 2009.  He turned the corner from no-power, semi-speedster who had a decent batting average into a moderate power, high-batting average, good-speed, potential leadoff hitter.  For a complete analysis, see Mike D’s Jason Bartlett Player Profile.

Ben Zobrist completely rebuilt his swing.  You have seen the results.  The power he has shown is way above average for a shortstop (he had 13 games at short in 2009), and his production was fairly consistent month-to-month last year.  If your league allows you to draft him at short, you may be able to catch your competition napping, and grab him after the known elite options are gone.  For more Zobrist analysis, see the complete breakdown in his Player Profile.

Third Tier : Alexei Ramirez, Ryan Theriot, Miguel Tejada, Elvis Andrus, Jhonny Peralta, Stephen Drew, Asdrubal Cabrera, Alcides Escobar

This is a very interesting tier with some players that could breakout or rebound.  Alexei Ramirez was supposed to be the breakout shortstop in 2009.  After putting up a nice power/speed combination in 480 ABs in 2008, fantasy baseball GMs broke out their wallets to pay for the upside he offered.  They had to be very disappointed when Ramirez went on to decline in most scoring categories, though having 62 more ABs than he had in 2008.  However, there is reason to still like the youngster.  He watched his batting average go down from .290 to .277, yet his OBP went up from .317 to .333 and his BB/K rate improved drastically.  Now that the hype has settled a bit and his price has lowered, this could be the season where your moderate investment pays huge dividends.

There are four shortstops in this tier who’s main asset is their speed.  Ryan Theriot has seen his batting average jump around from .266 to .307, but his stolen base production has remained consistent.  He is not an option that is going to blow you away in any single category (not even SBs), but should give you some help in each.  If you are looking for speed, Elvis Andrus or Alcides Escobar may be better choices.  This pair of young shortstops are similar in that their organization did not want to wait to put them in the lineup.  Andrus forced Michael Young over to third base in 2009, and we were able to see why almost immediately.  While his batting average was nothing awesome, his OBP as acceptable, and his stolen base total is sure to keep his price in 2010 fantasy baseball auctions high.  Similarly, Alcides Escobar forced the Brewers to completely hose J.J. Hardy.  Hardy started slow in 2009, and despite his past success, they sent him to the minors for contract reasons (and to see what Escobar had to offer).  As it turns out, Escobar showed them enough to let J.J. Hardy leave town.  At the minor league level, Escobar proved himself to be a high-average hitter and good stolen base threat, yet his BB/K rate dropped dramatically upon reaching the show.  Like the other two speed guys we discussed, he does not have much in the way of power, but he could easily wind up in the leadoff spot for much of 2010.

Finally, we come to Asdrubal Cabrera.  He is a strange case, and I have to admit that I am not sure what to think about him.  With the batting average and stolen base total he put up in 2009 (.308 BA, 17 SB), he is not going to slip under your opponent’s radar.  In the minors, he was not a huge stolen base threat.  His minor league high was 23 in 2007, but in no other year in his 6 year minor league career did he steal more than 12.  Another crazy number that pops out of his minor league stats is his BB/K rate.  At some stops it is close to or over 1.0.  At other stops he struck out 3-4 times more than he walked.  I want to be able to predict what the players I draft  will do, and all of these wild cards in Cabrera’s history, plus the higher price tag he will command in 2010 make me want to let someone else pay for his services in 2010.

Miguel Tejada is older than when you could expect great numbers, but not so old that he can’t help your fantasy team.  His average should remain high, and his power is not yet completely gone.  Just be sure to bid on him as though he is in the third tier, not any higher.  Many GMs were expecting Stephen Drew to take a big step forward in 2009.  Needless to say, the step he took was backward.  The good news is that his batting average did not drop all the way back to his 2007 total of .238, and that his BB/K rate actually improved over his great 2008 season.  I would expect that his power will grow a bit more, but it looks as though he will not be a consistent BA asset.  There is upside here, but we have been waiting on this upside to show up for a few years now.  He could be a nice buy-low candidate.

Fourth Tier :  Orlando Cabrera, Yunel Escobar, Marco Scutaro, Everth Cabrera, Erik Aybar, Rafael Furcal, J.J. Hardy, Edgar Renteria, Clint Barmes, Mike Aviles

There is a ton of mediocre, but steady production in this tier.  Orlando Cabrera has hit either 8 or 9 HRs in the last five seasons.  Yet his stolen base total has dropped every season since 2006.  Perhaps this is why he is still a free agent at the time of this posting.  His batting average is still worth while, but his lack of upside should keep your bid reasonable.  Yunel Escobar is another steady but uninspiring option.  He is another player (like O. Cabrera) that will help you in batting average, but put up mediocre production in all the other categories.    Marco Scutaro was a perennial waiver-wire pickup before 2009.  After putting up a decent season (12 HR, 14 SB, 100 R, .282 BA) and his team change to the Red Sox, his price is sure to rise.  He could wind up putting up a similar stat-line in 2010, but I would rather take a safer bet for the price he will go for.  Poor Rafael Furcal.  He was a fantasy gem for the first couple seasons he spent in the bigs.  Now he is an extreme injury risk, and even when healthy has not put up the same numbers GMs associate with his name.  He has the potential to return to his former self, but his injury risk should temper your bid.  Take a look at Everth Cabrera.  He may be available late, he played well in his first major league ABs (.342 OBP, 25 SB).  He was fast enough to steal 73 bases 2008, and he should be on your radar.  Be aware though, last year were his first ABs over A-ball.

There is some upside in this tier that you should note.  J.J. Hardy (as we covered above) was shipped out of town to make way for a younger player.  I see this as an opportunity to buy him low.  His BB/K rate was almost the same as his previous seasons, and his contact rate was only slightly lower than normal.  The one stat that stands out to me is that his BABIP in 2009 was the lowest it had been since his rookie season (2009 BABIP – .264).  It is no secret that he was upset with his former team for the way they played with his career, and the change of scenery should help him.  Another name that you may be able to slip by your fellow league members is Mike Aviles.  After putting up stellar numbers in 2008, Aviles was injured early in 2009 and wound up missed almost the entire season.  While I do not believe that he will return all the way to that .325 BA he recorded in 2008, he should be able to find enough playing time and give you enough production to make him worth grabbing cheap or late.  Wow, Clint Barmes made a huge recovery in 2008 and 2009 from his tragic deer meat accident that derailed his career years ago.  Finally making good on his potential, his 23 HRs were by far a career high.  His batting average leaves something to be desired, and he may have to still compete for playing time should he slump.  If you draft him, you should also count on those SBs declining since he was caught stealing in 10 out of his 22 attempts in 2009.  Be careful here, and do not bid as though 20 HRs is assured.

The Rest : Bobby Crosby, Maicer Izturis, Luis Valbuena, Emilio Bonifacio, Cliff Pennington, Christian Guzman, Willie Bloomquist, Khalil Greene, Tommy Manzella, Ian Desmond, Alex Gonzalez, Juan Uribe, Yuniesky Betancourt, Brendan Harris, Cesar Izturis, Julio Lugo, Paul Janish

There are lots of names down here that are unpredictable.  Many of these names have some potential, but do not have assured playing time.  When you get this low on the depth chart at shortstop, concentrate on those players that will get the ABs.  You do not want to draft someone and depend on an injury to the starter for your player’s production to match your bid.  Ian Desmond should start the season with a full time job.  He has some pop in his bat, but is completely unproven.  Luis Valbuena still has to win a job, but showed that he can hit a bit, but his playing time is not certain. Tommy Manzella could wind up the starter in Houston.  He hit .299 in the last two seasons in the minors and can steal a base (but probably not a ton of them).  Playing time could be an issue for Macier Izturis, but he can hit, and should find enough ABs to help your team.  Do not expect a rebound from Khalil Greene.  He was never that great to begin with, and his mental issues could resurface at any time.  The Cardinals wanted to go with Julio Lugo instead.  That should tell you all you need to know.

Third Base

——————–

Top Tier: Alex Rodriguez

Despite the fact that Alex Rodriguez did not put up the best numbers at third base in 2009, I still rank him a the top of this position.  He could explode for a monster season in any given year, and should still be considered as one of the top overall fantasy commodities.  He has more power than any other option except for Reynolds, still steals bases, and is a lock for 100 RBI.  Even with all of the quality options in the second tier, none of them is the complete package that is the Almighty A-Rod.

Second Tier: Evan Longoria, Ryan Zimmerman, Kevin Youkilis, Mark Reynolds, David Wright, Pablo Sandoval, Michael Young, Aramis Ramirez, Chone Figgins

Evan Longoria is certainly coming along nicely.  He made nice progress with his BB/K rate in 2009 and should continue to be ranked among the top third basemen for years to come.  But then when you look at Ryan Zimmerman, you realize that he may be almost the same player.  When you look at his stats from 2009, they are every bit as good (if not better) than Evan Longoria’s.  In fact, Longoria and Zimmerman put up an OPS within 2 points of each other in 2009 (Longoria – .890, Zimmerman – .889).  His AB/HR rate is not quite as good as Longoria’s, but if you can get Zimmerman at a discount he could be just as valuable to your fantasy baseball team.  Kevin Youkilis just had his second quality season in a row with an OPS over .900 (2009 – .961 : higher than Longoria or Zimmerman!).  His batting average is very nice, and his AB/HR rate over the last two seasons has been almost identical (2008 – 18.6, 2009 – 18.2 AB/HR).  With the table-setters he has hitting in front of him, expect the RBIs to continue as well.  If your league discounts him at all because he has not actually hit the 30 HR plateu, grab him.

When it comes to Mark Reynolds, you have to remember that no matter how much you bid, or how early you take him, last year’s monster season will not count for 2010.  It can easily be argued that Reynolds should be placed in the top tier after his awesome 2009, but a repeat is nowhere near certain.  It was his first season hitting over 40 HR, so a correction is likely, and I do not think the SBs will last.  For a complete analysis of why I think Reynolds is overrated, see my Overrated Fantasy Hitters article.  Just as I believe that Reynolds’ numbers are likely to regress toward his previous stats, I believe that David Wright is likely to rebound in 2010.  Do I think he will hit 30 HRs while playing half his games in Citi-Field?  No.  But somewhere in the low-to-mid 20s is certainly doable.  A rebound to 20-100-30-90-.310 is not very hard to believe.  I would take that in a second if people sleep on Wright.  I devoted a complete article with stats and analysis as to why.  Click here to read it.

Pablo Sandoval is amazing.  Even when he swings at balls outside the strike zone, Sandoval’s contact rate is over 75%.  If his power grows just a little more he could wind up being something special.  However, the supporting cast in San Francisco and the ballpark are working against his run and RBI totals, so it is worth discounting his price just a dollar or two.  Michael Young’s 2009 stat-line is crazy.  He hit for a career high batting average and had the best AB/HR rate of his career.  Strangely enough, he had his lowest RBI total since 2002.  He rebounded in the second half of the season, having the same number of RBI as in the first half, but in 147 fewer ABs.  He showed that he is not done yet, and someone that can give you 600+ ABs with a batting average around .315 is just huge for your team.

Chone Figgins found a new home on the Mariners, and should keep stealing his bases.  Funny that the one thing the Mariners knew they had was a leadoff hitter (Ichiro) and they signed another one instead of a power bat.  Beware, since they did not have much power, Figgy may not even hit the 100 runs mark in 2010.  Just because Aramis Ramirez only hit 15 HR in 2009, don’t discount him too much.  His AB/HR rate and RBI total were right on target with his career averages.  His batting average remained high (.317), and he even set a new career high in OBP (.389).  If he is healthy, he could easily rebound to be as good as any of these other options in 2010.

Third Tier:  Chipper Jones, Jorge Cantu, Gordon Beckham, Jhonny Peralta, Casey Blake, Adrian Beltre

The third tier may be small, but it is comprised of fairly safe bets.  Will they put up huge numbers?  Most likely not.  However, each of these options are safe enough that you can depend on them to play the entire season (barring injury of course).  Chipper Jones is not the superstar he once was, but should be good for a plus batting average and 20-something home runs.  Jorge Cantu has bounced back from a couple of slow seasons to prove that he is a major league regular.  Jhonny Peralta and Casey Blake are both options that aren’t flashy, but can offer a 20-90 season with a decent batting average.

Gordon Beckham has upside for sure, however he could wind up being the most expensive option in the tier in 2010 fantasy baseball auctions since his upside is so high.  Disclaimer: I have a weakness for Adrian Beltre.  In Boston I feel that he could rebound significantly.  A good lineup around him and a ballpark where he can pull the ball into the Green Monster 60 times a season is just what the doctor ordered for his fantasy value.

Fourth Tier: Casey McGehee, Martin Prado, Placido Polanco, Ian Stewart, Mark Teahen, Jake Fox, Mark DeRosa, Troy Glaus

Unlike the third tier, the guaranteed production in the fourth tier is not above average.  However, there are a few options in this tier possessing enough upside to make them the better choice if they come much cheaper (which many of them will).  I particularly like Casey McGehee.  He showed good power (but not so drastic that your competition will be falling over themselves to get him) and also a very good batting average.  With a solid lineup around him he could develop into nice fantasy asset.  Martin Prado will probably be taken at second base before the players at third are this thin, but he should play all year.  I am a little skeptical about his power, but if cheap he is worth the gamble.

Jake Fox will get his chance to be a full-time player in 2010.  The ballpark is not one I would want my sleeper to play in, but you could do worse at the hot corner.  Troy Glaus will man first base in 2010 for the Braves.  His health will always be an issue, but 20 HR (probably with the usual poor BA) could be yours cheap.  Placido Polanco – steady but mediocre.  I do not expect that Mark DeRosa will hit for as much power as we have come to expect playing half his games in San Francisco.

The Rest: Garrett Atkins, Brandon Inge, Brandon Wood, Chris Davis, Edwin Encarnacion, Ty Wigginton, Jeff Baker, Emilio Bonifacio, Josh Fields, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Chase Headley, David Freese, Alex Gordon

As usual, when we are in the bottom tier, playing time is an issue for many of these options.  The steadier ones may be predictable, but they are unspectacular in their level of production.  Kevin Kouzmanoff, Chase Headley, and Ty Wigginton are the safest of these options, but none possess a large amount of upside.  Headley has put up two seasons where his numbers were very similar after accounting for the difference in ABs.  The Padres do not have much hitting outside of Adrian Gonzalez (and maybe Kyle Blanks), so a large jump in RBI or runs is doubtful.  However, he should gain over 500 ABs as a regular starter.  Ty Wigginton is a perennial waiver-wire pickup that has to fight for playing time every year, but usually winds up posting numbers that can be helpful to a fantasy team.  In 2009, his numbers took a hit, as he posted half the number of HRs for which he is usually dependable.   Much like Headley, Kouzmanoff could wind up playing all year, but his fantasy numbers are less than excellent.  He does possess some power, but his OBP and batting average have not shown any improvement over the last three seasons.  The best thing that could happen to his fantasy value would be a trade out of San Diego.

Everyone loved Chris Davis for 2009.  In my two keeper leagues, he was protected for way more than I would have considered smart.  He has plenty of power, but strikes out a ton and may have playing time issues in 2010.  Garrett Atkins could recover from his awful 2009, but leaving Colorado is not a formula for a hitter to improve.  Expect a slight recovery, but not a resurgence back to his prime.  Even if Brandon Inge is able to duplicate the power he showed in 2009, that batting average is brutal.  He can’t hit lefties.  Josh Fields does offer some upside in 2010 if he can win some playing time.  Alex Gordon also has upside, but with the current makeup of the Royals’ roster, he and Gordon could be fighting for one position if David Dejesus holds onto the left field job.  The sleeper of the bunch is Brandon Wood.  Sure, everyone knows his name because he has been a sleeper for years.  However, it looks like the Angels feel he is ready for a full time job.  They said the same thing about Kendry Morales last season and look at the results.  If you get down this low without a third baseman, you may as well go for the upside.

Second Base

————–

Top Tier:  Chase Utley, Ian Kinsler, Brian Roberts

It is clear that Chase Utley is great across the board.  He offers consistent production in all categories and will be taken fairly early in the first round of snake drafts.  Ian Kinsler critics will point to his injury history and poor batting average and say he is overrated.  I will point to a kid who: went 30-30 in his 4th season, has seen his RBI total grow in every year, showed he could hit for average in 2008 (.313), and is just a monster fantasy season waiting to happen.  I would happily sacrifice some of those home runs for a .300 batting average, since the kid clearly tries to hit home runs too often.  However, 30-30 from a second baseman is huge for a fantasy team and should not be passed by without some serious consideration.  When people say that his batting average sucked, point to his .245 BABIP in 2009.  Bad luck played a part in his .253 BA in 2009.

I moved Brian Roberts back and forth from the first tier to the second a few times.  While I would take either of the other players in the top tier before him, I would take him before any of the players in the second tier.  He muscled up in 2009 (hopefully without any “help” this time) and hit 16 HRs, and drove in a career high 79 runs.  While his stolen base total has dropped from 50 in 2007, to 40 in 2008, to 30 in 2009, a 16-30 season with 100 runs and a good batting average is quality production from a second baseman.  I would expect that power to decline a bit in 2010, but if those SBs tick back up you will still get quality.  He is just so dependable, that adds some value in my eyes.

Second Base: Dustin Pedroia, Aaron Hill, Robinson Cano, Brandon Phillips, Ben Zobrist, Dan Uggla

Still very nice options are available to you in the second tier, however it would be tough for me to pass up on a great first baseman late in the first round for one of these options.  Look at it this way:  I would pass up on Mark Teixeira if it meant landing Utley or maybe even Kinsler because second base is so thin.  I would not pass up Tex for Hill or Pedrioa even despite the position scarcity factor.  Would you?

Dustin Pedroia can hit.  That batting average is for real and you can expect it to continue.  However the lack of power development makes me think that he will not take the step forward to join the upper tier.  While I have no doubt that somewhere along the way he will have a career year, it does not look like he is going to make a run at the 30-30 club on a regular basis.  Especially disturbing was that his stolen base percentage dropped drastically last year.  In 2008 he stole 20 bases and was caught once.  In 2009 he stole 20 bases and was caught 8 times.  They may not let him run as much if he starts making outs on the base-paths again in 2010.  If that happens, then he is just a 20ish home run hitter with a good BA.  Wow, what to say about Aaron Hill?  The power is alluring.  Yet paying for it is a huge gamble.  It is going to cost a huge amount of bid money or a fairly early pick to land Hill, and his HR total in 2009 looks like an outlier of a season.  If you want a complete analysis (which you should if you are considering keeping or drafting him), see my Overrated Fantasy Hitters article.

Robinson Cano saw his power spike in 2009, which was a welcome step forward from those GMs that have been waiting.  His batting average made a complete recovery, and Cano scored over 100 runs for the first time in his career.  However, Cano’s track record suggests that paying as if another increase in power is coming would be a waste of bid money.  In the first four seasons of his career, Cano failed to break the 20 HR mark.  In 2009, Cano hit twice as many home runs in the new Yankee Stadium than during 2008 in the old stadium.  With the change in the ballpark, he could hold onto that gain, but expecting more power to develop may be asking too much.  If you can get Cano on the cheap side, he is a great commodity.  I would like to see him hit around 25 home runs again before I am willing to pay the price he will command in 2010 fantasy auctions and drafts.

I like Ben Zobrist.  I believe that his production will continue, and his breakout was so unlikely that your competition may hesitate to take him as early as his production warrants.  For a complete breakdown on why I feel this way, check out Fantasy Baseball Addiction’s Ben Zobrist Player Profile.  It is unlike me to be drawn to such an unproven player, but I am. Brandon Phillips is underrated in fantasy circles.  All he has done is go 20-20 or better for three straight seasons.  Sure, his batting average is not awesome, but that is a small complaint compared to the production he offers in the other categories.  Your fellow GMs may not notice this, but Phillips also drove in 98 runs in 2009.  Dan Uggla is the Adam Dunn of second base.  While Dunn offers 40 HR power and a bad batting average at the deeper positions of OF or 1B, Uggla offers 30 HR power with a bad batting average at the thiner second base.  There is value here, and he could always put up a good batting average season one of these years.

Third Tier:  Jose Lopez, Placido Polanco, Gordon Beckham, Ian Stewart, Martin Prado, Orlando Hudson, Rickie Weeks, Casey McGehee (22), Kaz Matsui, Chris Getz, Luis Castillo, Alberto Callaspo, Asdrubal Cabrera (28)

After reading the names in the third tier, you can probably see why second base is such a thin position in 2010.  Sure, there are a few that have upside.  Yet any single one of them could wind up a disappointment for fantasy owners.  The most predictable of the group are Jose Lopez and Placido Polanco.  Lopez has increased his home run output in four straight seasons, and set a career high in HR and RBI in 2009.  He does not possess the OBP that could indicate more is to come, but he has managed to keep his batting average at respectable levels in 3 of the last 4 seasons.  Polanco is another fairly safe bet.  Yet, it is a “safe” bet because the lack of upside and mediocre numbers safe players will put up make GMs look for other options that could wind up giving them more.  While he set a new career high for RBI in 2009, that career high is only 72.  That is the downside of the safe choice.  So it is up to you to scout the other options this late, and decide if the risk of them completely sucking (let’s say like Alexi Casilla or Emmanuel Burriss did in 2009) is worth passing up nice power from Lopez or 550 ABs of a good batting average from Polanco.

I am going to be keeping an eye on Martin Prado this spring.  He was impressive enough in 2009 to not only take the job in Atlanta away from Kelly Johnson, but he made Johnson completely expendable in the Braves’ eyes.  Prado showed a good eye at the plate and the power in his bat showed up.  He gets caught stealing too often to be a true speed asset, but he could be a nice late gem nonetheless.  Prado will certainly be a lot cheaper than Gordon Beckham.  Beckham gave us a taste of what he could do in 2009, and the signs are bright.  Unfortunately, his numbers were good enough that he is now on every radar screen.  He put up 14 HR and 7 SBs in a short season (378 ABs).  Makes me think to this time in the last off-season when another youngster who had very good numbers in 2008 was going for large bids and early picks in drafts.  Alexei Ramirez.  How did that work out?  That is exactly the argument for taking one of the safe and cheaper bets.  Everyone was on the Ramirez bandwagon looking for the next big thing at a thin position, and paid for him.  They just don’t always pan out.  Keep your bidding for Gordon in check.  If you can get Casey McGehee for cheaper (which is almost assured) grab him instead.  The kid showed good pop, and is much more likely to slip under your competition’s radar at your draft or auction.

Obviously, Rickie Weeks and Kaz Matsui are the two largest injury risks in the group.  Both have the upside to perform well if healthy and playing like they have shown they can.  How many ABs they can actually give you is a real concern.  Luis Castillo is just old.  His resurgent season in 2009 was great for owners who gambled on him, but don’t expect another season like that.  People are very high on Asdrubal Cabrera this season.  If you can still get him after half this tier is gone, that isn’t so bad, but there is nothing that suggests that a breakout season is coming.  His OBP is creaping up, which is good since it will keep him in the lineup.  However, I doubt the power will grow much, and the speed is mediocre.  Allberto Callaspo took a large step up in the power department while maintaining his usual nice batting average.  He should continue to hit well, but the power should be viewed with skepticism.  Ian Stewart has power.  He also has a poor batting average.  In the minors, he struck out less than twice as much as he walked.  In the bigs last season he struck out closer to three times as much as he walked.  Trouble.  Chris Getz showed decent plate discipline and that he could steal a base.  Unfortunately he will have to fight for playing time with Callaspo.

Fourth Tier: Felipe Lopez, Clint Barmes, Howie Kendrick, Skip Schumaker, Jeff Baker, Kelly Johnson, Freddy Sanchez, Scott Sizemore, Mark Ellis, Willy Aybar, Ronnie Belliard, Akinori Iwamura, Eugenio Velez, Maicer Izturis, Adam Kennedy, Julio Lugo, Willie Harris, Brendan Harris, Juan Uribe

Full of so-so production, part-time players, and little upside, the fourth tier is just ugly.  Jeff Baker may have some upside, since his power in the minors was better than what he showed in 2009, and his batting average was more than respectable.  Skip Schumaker can hit .300 for you, but it is a pretty empty line other than that.  Eugenio Velez will have playing time issues, but can still steal enough bases to be useful.  The fact that Felipe Lopez only put up numbers close to those of Placido Polanco, and that was a RESURGENCE should be a warning sign.  It should not be a sign you should equate them as the same value.  Scott Sizemore is a name that could slip by other GMs, but he should start the season with a full time job.  Nothing special, but he should play.

First Base

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Top Tier : Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, Mark Teixeira

It would be very easy to put Albert Pujols in this tier by himself.  After all, in 99% of fantasy baseball rankings in the world, Pujols will be the overall most valuable player.  There is no need to say anything more than that about the best fantasy commodity in baseball.  Miguel Cabrera is a huge season waiting to happen.  This kid actually reminds me a great deal of Pujols.  He broke into the league at a young age and started producing from day one.  He also has never had what you can call a “bad” season.  He hits for power, drives in runs, and his batting average is awesome.  The only thing Pujols offers that he does not is speed.  Cabrera is that magic age of 27 years old this season.  The other three choices are also fine additions to your team that will provide the offensive power and run production that you can build your team around.

Ryan Howard’s batting average is usually not as good as the other options in the first tier, but his RBI total year to year is awesome.  Prince Fielder has as much power as any of these names, but his final line varies a bit from season to season (HR TOTALS:  2007 – 50, 2008 – 36, 2009 – 46).  If you draft him in a season where he puts it all together, you get one of the best fantasy players in the game.  Finally, we come to Mark Teixeira.  He has power (though has not broken the 40 HR mark in several seasons) and his batting average is consistently high.  If he can just start hitting during April like he does later in the season, he could be a top 10 player (he is a notoriously slow starter).

Second Tier : Justin Morneau, Adrian Gonzalez, Joey Votto, Kevin Youkilis, Kendry Morales, Adam Dunn, Derrek Lee

These options at first base are all quality that you can draft for a cheaper price, but can put up production that help your team greatly.  All, however, have some flaw that keep them out of that top tier.  The name on this list that people are most often going to point to as belonging in the top tier is Adrian Gonzalez.  Coming off of his first 40 HR season, his owners love his ability.  I do too.  What keeps him out of the top tier is two-fold.  Firstly, his batting average and RBI total from year to year is not in the upper echelon of the position.  He has not had a BA over .282 in the last three seasons, and in two of those three seasons his RBI total was under 101.  Also, his ballpark and supporting cast are working against him repeating the power he showed, and his RBI total improving much.  He is quality, but since his price in your auction is likely to be as high as the previous tier, you should let him pass your team by.

Justin Morneau is another name that often is ranked with the top names at first base.  Sure, he puts together a good season now and again, but his final stat line is very different from season to season.  One year he will hit .271, then the next year he will hit .300.  One year he will hit 31 HR, the next he will hit 23.  Even his RBI total varies greatly, ranging from 100 to 129 over the last three seasons.  This unpredictability keeps him in the second tier.  Joey Votto is one of the up-and-comers at first base.  He hit everything that moved in the first half of 2009, with a .351 batting average.  Even in the second half when he cooled off to only .300, his power levels remained just as high as in the first half.  If he can maintain that batting average and power levels (and stay on the field for 550 ABs) he could join the upper level as soon as 2011.

Everyone knows that Adam Dunn has great power, and usually has a bad batting average.  It is that batting average that keeps him in the second tier year after year.  I will not raise him up to the top level because he brought that average up to .267 last season.  Derrek Lee is old, and his resurgent 2009 is no reason to pay the price as though he was back in his prime.  Lee, to me, is one of those players that GMs are going to massively overpay for in 2010 fantasy drafts and auctions.  See my Overrated Fantasy Hitters article for details.  Kendry Morales was a great pickup last season, but I would like to see him repeat those numbers (and boost that runs total) before he is ranked any higher.  I would also like to see him hit better while batting right-handed.  There is a good argument to put him in the third tier instead of the second.

Third Tier : Pablo Sandoval, Victor Martinez, Lance Berkman, Carlos Pena, Billy Butler

There is good upside in this tier.  Both Pablo Sandoval and Billy Butler could take steps forward in 2010 which would seriously upgrade their ranking.  Sandoval swings at everything he sees, but keeps that batting average high.  Butler’s surrounding cast limits his run production upside, and he has yet to show more than 20-something HR power.  He is, however, country strong and a 30 HR season is possible.  Victor Martinez will go for too much bid money or too high a draft pick to use at first base.  Someone will use him at catcher, where is is indeed worth much more.  Carlos Pena sure has power, but that batting average will cost your team some points.  Be careful paying to much for just the HR category.  Poor Big Puma.  Lance Berkman has been very inconsistent over the seasons, and the wheels just completely came off the bus is 2009.  With his lowest RBI and HR total since 2005, Berkman’s price is sure to be reduced in 2010.  I would love to grab him at this reduced price, since he has recovered from similarly poor seasons in his past with monster years the next.

Fourth Tier : James Loney, Jorge Cantu, Paul Konerko, Jose Lopez, Adam LaRoche, Martin Prado, Todd Helton, Garrett Jones, Nick Johnson, Aubrey Huff, Michael Cuddyer,Chris Davis

Look at all this quality talent still around after the “top” 17 options are off the board.  There are really two fantasy baseball strategies for drafting first basemen.  You can use an early draft pick or lots of bid money on a top slugger that will put up huge numbers.  Or you can wait many rounds and pay much less for a player that will produce good-but-not-great numbers, while drafting better players at thiner positions.  If you chose the second strategy, make sure that you get a first baseman that is no lower than this tier.  There are plenty of guys here that will hit you 20ish home runs with a decent batting average and 90ish RBI.  Are they superstars?  No.  However, if you draft someone with that early pick (or large bid) at a thin position (like 2B) that is a superstar and combine their numbers with one of these mediocre 1B options, you can break even with a team that uses the inverse strategy.  Let’s hit the highlights of this tier.

James Loney is consistent, but has failed to take a significant step forward since establishing a baseline of production.  Jorge Cantu has defied the odds to make a nice comeback after two down seasons.  At this point, it appears as though his numbers are reliable though not spectacular.  Garrett Jones is sure to top many fantasy baseball sleeper lists for the 2010.  After hitting 21 home runs in only 314 ABs, plenty of knowledgeable GMs are going to be willing to wait on a first baseman counting on drafting Jones later.

Michael Cuddyer is sure to draw skepticism from fantasy GMs this season.  However, this kid was highly touted when coming into the big leagues, and his numbers were consistent in a month-to-month breakdown of 2009.  While 34 home runs may be a bit much to expect again from Cuddyer in 2010, he is a solid player that can help your team if you grab him late.  Martin Prado is a lower-profile sleeper that has some upside.  Don’t wait too long though, because he does qualify at thiner positions than first base and could be taken at second or third base if you sleep on him.  Do I have to tell you that Nick Johnson is an injury risk?  Jose Lopez was one of only two Mariners that hit more than 20 home runs in 2009.  Like Prado, Lopez can be taken at 2B as well.  Chris Davis was last year’s hot pickup that was overpaid for in leagues everywhere.  Don’t let that be you again this year.  Power potential is great, but a certain bad batting average is awful.  Until he proves he can stick around in the show, contain your excitement (and your bid).

The Rest : Garrett Atkins, Carlos Delgado, Mark DeRosa (10), Mark Teahen (11), Ty Wigginton, Nick Swisher, Hank Blalock, Luke Scott, Russell Branyan, Mike Jacobs, Ryan Garko, Daniel Murphy, Lyle Overbay, Jeff Clement

While there is still upside present in this final tier, you are looking at some longer odds for a breakthrough power season.  In fact, when you get this low in the tiers playing time could start to be an issue.  I am personally not a Chris Davis fan.  There is no questioning that the kid has power, but that walk rate is terrible and the strikeouts come in bunches.  The quickest way for a touted hitter to turn into a fantasy bust is for him to strike out a ton and walk very little.  Garrett Atkins could rebound after a terrible 2009, but how often does a player get better after leaving Colorado?  Carlos Delgado is still looking for a job at the time of this posting, and his age and poor 2009 are working against his fantasy value.  Russell Branyan looked like a resurgence was coming in 2009, but injury derailed his attempt.  I would not bet on such quality production happening again.  Jeff Clement has been jerked around for many seasons, and that could still happen in the crowded first base picture on the Pirates.  Mark DeRosa’s breakout came fairly late in his career.  In that pitcher’s ballpark surrounded by a mediocre cast I doubt his numbers will be as good as in his recent past.

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Catchers

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First Tier:  Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez, Brian McCann

Most people are going to look at this first tier and wonder why Joe Mauer is not all by himself.  The reason that he isn’t is that his exceptional 2009 was only the first time he has given fantasy owners the power that they have been waiting on for years.  I have said it before, and I am sure I will say it again (even during this article): Predictability is one of the chief factors to use when picking players to target in your fantasy draft or auction.  To be placed in a top tier by oneself, not only does the player have to have excellence in production, but a relative certainty that this production will continue for at least another season.  No one is questioning Mauer’s batting average, but in 2009 he more than doubled his career high in HR, and broke 85 RBI for the first time in his career.  Without the track record for hitting over 20 home runs per season, I hesitate to recommend paying for Mauer as though he is the clear favorite at the position.  Victor Martinez also had an excellent season in 2009, and also has hit over 20 HR multiple times (as well as recorded over 85 RBI four times).  So you tell me…… are you SURE that Mauer is going to have a better 2010 season than Martinez?  I am not, so I cannot recommend that you pay significantly more for Mauer.

Finally, we come to Brian McCann.  Much like Mauer before 2009, McCann seems to still be developing.  While his power is consistent with about 20 or more HR in all but one season of his career, he does not put up the same uber-batting average Mauer does, nor the RBI total typical of Martinez.  It is actually pretty strange.  McCann’s production year-to-year remains almost identical to his first full season.  It is good fantasy production for a catcher, but it seems like he should be able to improve on these numbers as he matures and gains experience.

Second Tier:  Jorge Posada, Matt Wieters, Miguel Montero, Russell Martin

Everyone in this second tier has the ability to put up numbers worthy of the first tier.  However, there is a reason that each player has not been placed in that upper echelon.  What is it about Dodger catchers?  The last two full-time Dodger catchers both came out of the gate strong.  Remember Paul LoDuca’s rookie season?  It was a monster (25 HR, 90 RBI, .320 BA).  Then, a not-so-gradual fade away into fantasy obscurity.  Now it seems a similar (yet not as abrupt) fade is happening to Russell Martin.  His HR, RBI, SB, and BA have all dropped for two straight seasons after his excellent 2007.  Of course, it is completely possible that he can improve on his production, but the decline he has started keeps him out of the top tier, and should reduce his price at auction to match.  Jorge Posada is getting old.  There is no denying it, and keep in mind that he is THE MAN to any and all Yankee fans in the world.  Yet with a bad shoulder at 38 years old, it is only a matter of time before the decline in his fantasy production makes the price his name commands too high to pay.

Matt Wieters is surely the name that the “upside seekers” in your league are going to target.  His rookie year has to be seen as a success, and more is likely to come.  That is, unless his career path goes the same as Brian McCann, who as we covered, has not made much improvement in the fantasy categories since his first full season.  Personally, I would rather target Miguel Montero.  His name does not have as much hype surrounding it, and his upside is similar.  Chris Snyder was able to hold him off for a season or so, but once Montero was given a full-time role, the DBacks were not going to take it away.  With 16 home runs and a .294 batting average in his first full-time gig, his numbers could easily be better than Wieters in 2010.  At the time of this article, Bengie Molina had not yet signed with a team.  He is old, he is slow, but has shown good power over the seasons.  His 2008 season was his best season, putting up 95 RBI and a .295 batting average.  This was while he was batting cleanup for the Giants, a position in the batting order he is not likely to see again in his career.  In 2009 his power was at a career high, but his batting average dropped back closer to his career average.

Third Tier:  Bengie Molina, Ryan Doumit, A.J. Pierzynski, Mike Napoli, Geovany Soto, Chris Iannetta

I like a couple of the names in this tier, and if you can get them later or cheaper than the names above, they are completely worth the risk.  Ryan Doumit was among the higher-priced catchers in 2009 auctions.  Coming off of a relatively healthy 2008 in which he put up a .318 batting average, those that had seen the potential in his bat were expecting even more.  His 2009 season was not as healthy, yet his 10 HR in only 280 ABs was still worthy of note.  Since the power and ABs went down, you can expect his price to do the same.  Sit back, wait, and when others are pointing to the 10 HR as a reason to not pay the extra bid money, you can realize that his AB/HR ratio actually improved, and his BB/K ratio was almost identical to his 2008 season.  While his OBP dropped, the difference between his 2008 and 2009 BABIP can account for much of this (BABIP: 2008 – .338, 2009 – .271).  I like his upside and his expected 2010 price.  I also like A.J. Pierzynski.  While not the most spectacular option behind the dish, his predictable production makes up for his lack of upside.  We pretty much know what A.J. will do, and he will not hurt your team (or your bid money) by drafting him.  In his last 4 seasons he has only one with a batting average under .281, and he hit between 13 and 16 HR per season.  He does play in a very homer friendly ballpark, so a power spike is possible, but it is not needed to justify paying an extra dollar or two for his services.

On the surface, Mike Napoli looks like he should be in the second tier.  There is no questioning that the guy has power to spare.  With 20 HR for two straight seasons (both seasons with under 400 AB) there is upside here if he can ever have a truly full season.  So health is a primary concern.  Also, one has to look at the subtle decline in his secondary numbers from 2008 to 2009.  His SLG and OBP both dropped as well as his BB/K rate.  This all happened while his BABIP went UP slightly over that time.  He could be the best power hitting catcher in the league, or he could spend half the season on the D.L. and hit .250.  For the price he will command, I would rather pay less for more certain production.

Geovany Soto and Chris Iannetta both have a similar situation.  They both had great 2008 seasons, followed by a much worse 2009.  While Iannetta was touted coming into the bigs, his great season was preceded by struggle, and now after his struggles in 2009 he also has to contend with Miguel Olivo on the roster.  Olivo will eat into his playing time, and has the power to make that split damaging to Iannetta’s value.  Soto changed his approach at the plate in 2007 and his numbers exploded.  With the starting job wrapped up in 2008, the excellence continued.  However, in 2009 his numbers sank back closer to his previous levels, and his BA dropped all the way to .218.  A rebound to a middle-ground is likely, but don’t pay as though 2009 never happened.

Fourth Tier:  Kurt Suzuki, Yadier Molina, Kelly Shoppach, John Baker, Buster Posey, Ramon Hernandez, Ivan Rodriguez, Miguel Olivo

We are now into the group of catchers where they are either unproven or have limited upside.  Of this group, Miguel Olivo is the best power option, and that power could increase in Colorado, especially if he steals significant playing time from Iannetta.  His batting average may not be high enough to help your team, but if the Colorado effect can raise it up just a bit, he will be more than serviceable for your fantasy roster.  Another name that is sure to stand out on this list is Kurt Suzuki.  Having ranked 4th among catchers in RBI for 2009, there will be those that expect more to come.  I do not.  If you would like a detailed reason as to why, read about him in my Overrated Fantasy Hitters article.  I expected a bit of a resurgence from Ramon Hernandez in 2009, as he moved to the home run friendly ballpark in Cincinnati.  Obviously, I was wrong.  He was not playing all that well even before the injury which robbed him of most of the season.  He could still have an upswing, as his 2009 numbers were so bad it is easy to expect more.  However, at 34 years old, we have most likely seen his best.

Kelly Shoppach was trapped for years behind Victor Martinez.  Apparently the Indians did not think that he was a long term starter, as they let him go even after Martinez left town.  Now with a chance to play regularly, Shoppach will go from draft afterthought to overpriced, unproven commodity.  He has shown decent power in his history, but with a season high batting average of .261 (which dropped to .214 in 2009) his upside is limited.  Until he figures out how to hit right-handed pitching at a better rate, he is destined to lose playing time to another option.  John Baker was a popular sleeper in 2009.  Hitting .299 in 2008, fantasy GMs were expecting another step forward in 2009.  Well, he didn’t take a step forward, but he didn’t take much of a step back either.  His power was almost the same as in 2008, and his batting average (while down from 2008) was still at an acceptable level.  I don’t like drafting moderate power options in that ballpark, but at least Baker will not hurt you in the batting average category.  Yadier Molina is very similar to Baker.  Decent batting average, little power, low price.

Buster Posey is an upside pick, but that upside is limited to how soon the Giants let him catch for the big club.  He has power and can definitely hit for average.  If he can make the jump sooner rather than later, he should be able to help fantasy rosters.  Stash him away late if you have the roster space.

The Rest:  Rod Barajas, Carlos Ruiz, Gerald Laird, Rob Johnson, Carlos Santana, Greg Zaun, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Alex Avila, Jason Kendall, Jesus Flores, Nick Hundley

Once we get this far down the list at catcher, we are talking about spending just a dollar or two to get them.  With only upside to offer, there is little proven production that can be pointed to among this group.  Jesus Flores was supposed to be the starter in Washington before they signed Ivan Rodriguez.  He has shown that he can hit a little, and that his power is better than average for a catcher.  However, without a starting gig, how much he can help your team is in question.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia is also another player that was supposed to be a starter by now, but has stalled in his development.  He also has Taylor Teagarden competing for playing time, which further cuts into the likelihood that he will be a good option behind the plate.

Bottom line.  If you have gone so long without drafting a catcher that this is the list to chose from, keeping waiting and take a player with upside at another position if you can.