Bartlett achieved his career year on 500 at-bats, but will have 20% more at-bats in 2010. The cumulative categories (Home runs, stolen bases, RBIs and runs) can only be positively affected by 100 more at-bats. Even with a slight regression in production per at-bat, last year’s numbers are more than achievable; they can be exceeded. Let’s look at how 600 at-bats in the leadoff position should affect Bartlett’s 2010 numbers.

Home Runs
No number was more of a breakout last year for Bartlett than his home run total in 2009. He hit 14 long-balls, nine more than his previous best for a season. Still, his relatively high total of home runs last season works out to just one home run every 36 at-bats. That’s not exactly Babe Ruth or Ralph Kiner. Even if Bartlett regresses to just one home run per 50 at-bats, in a 600 at-bat season, he still hits 12 home runs, just two shy of that breakout total of 14. To put it in perspective, that’s basically one home run every two weeks. If he cracks two in one series, he doesn’t have to hit one for another month. Bartlett can handle that. The Bartlett owner-to-be isn’t exactly buying him for his power anyway. In fact, the home run jump that seems unsustainable, might be scaring him off. But as we can see, the extra at-bats cushion the risk of a return to a four or five home run season.

Stolen Bases
This category is a double bonus. Whereas home runs is a category in which Bartlett’s extra at-bats mitigate risk, stolen bases gets two serious bumps from this move. First, where most of the experts are predicting around 30 stolen bases on about 500 at-bats, we can now update that number. Adding 20 percent to 30 is easy.  So is 36 the new stolen base number? The Sporting News™ is the only fantasy baseball publication I use that has predicted 600 at-bats and get this, they predict 35 stolen bases.

But there’s another difference that adds value beyond the 20 percent already tacked on. Batting toward the bottom of the order doesn’t always lend to running situations. The leadoff spot is designed around it. So, related to stolen bases, Bartlett isn’t just receiving more at-bats, he’s receiving a higher quality of at-bat too. A 40 stolen base season is well within reach.

Runs
The same two positives that will affect stolen bases will have a similarly positive impact on the runs category. The 20 percent added to last year’s total(90 runs) will add 18, to bring the projection to 108 runs. That’s a huge number. Remember the aforementioned Sporting News with the 600 at-bat Bartlett line? They project 111 runs scored. Add to it that when batting near the bottom of the order, Bartlett was often stranded by lesser hitters.

If Carl Crawford and the rest of the heart of the order had a chance to drive him in, you could be sure there would be a few outs on the board already. But now Bartlett will always, always be followed by the best on the team. The one hitter is driven in by the three and four hitters a hell of a lot more than the eight hitter. Stolen bases and runs stand to receive the largest jump and with all these opportunities, 110 runs suddenly seems like the right floor. If this Tampa offense cranks away this season, Bartlett could end up 5 – 15 runs higher than that.

Runs Batted In
RBIs seems to be the one category in which the leadoff hitter doesn’t have a huge edge on the others in the order, to varying degrees of course. You can guarantee that there will be no one on base during the first at-bat of the game, so the extra at-bats add a little less to this category. Still, slight improvements to RBIs are to be expected, just based on total chances, but don’t bet on too much. Add five to ten RBIs to last year’s 65 and you should be safe.

Batting Average
This is the toughest category to predict. Can Bartlett keep up the .320 average he displayed last year? Likely not, but imagine a .295 average on 600 at-bats. That’s a fair regression and leaves plenty of room for realistic upside. So, at .295, that’s 177 hits. That’s 17 more total hits than the breakout year of 2009. And that’s with a very conservative estimate for at-bats. There’s no reason to believe that 100 extra at-bats sprinkled evenly throughout the course of a season will have a tiring effect on a veteran like Bartlett. The fact that we can be so conservative in our batting average projections and still exceed last year’s number with higher quality at-bats is the clearest indication of how undervalued Bartlett’s stats really are.

Fantasy Implications

Last year I bid on Russell Branyan at third base and got him for nothing. I noticed that he was going to play everyday, putting his 2009 reality far above his projected at-bats. In the three seasons leading into 2009, Branyan had collected a total of 536 at-bats and hit a whopping 40 home runs (one home run per 13.4 at-bats), virtually in line with his now career home per at-bat rate one for every 14.8 at-bats. So it became a question of math. How many at-bats was he going to get. In the end, he got injured, but by that time he had amassed 431 at-bats and 31 home runs, one home run ever 13.9 at-bats–right on target! Sure, I had to finish with an also-ran in Branyan’s spot, but by that time, that roster spot had produced, among other things, 31 home runs, a great total for a third baseman that cost me nothing.

The point is, fantasy baseball is a game of math. If you see a player who will be getting many more at-bats than the fantasy baseball magazines and, more importantly, your friends think he will, then the player is under-valued. There are under-valued players like Branyan at the bottom rungs of the depth charts, and once in a while there’s a player like Bartlett, who’s got a high price tag, but remains under-valued nonetheless. Also, the game isn’t about getting a whole team of under-priced players. The key is to strike a balance between stats you can buy on the cheap while paying the price for the stats you absolutely must have. Some players are worth the price tag.

That said, my new 2010 fantasy baseball projection for Jason Bartlett is:

600 abs/12 home runs/73 RBIs/114 runs/41 stolen bases/.295 BA

Russell Martin  (C – LAD) –  Four to six weeks?  Ugh.  Those of you waiting to get Martin at a discount this year will get an even bigger one if you are willing to gamble on the health of his groin.  This puts the best case scenario have Martin starting the season on the D.L., and realistically missing the first 3-4 weeks of the season.  Of course, groin injuries can be tricky, and can be easily re-agrivated.  When you are talking about a catcher who has to spend so much time in a crouch, that becomes a serious issue.  Not to mention, a good portion of the value Martin has to offer is that his speed is well above average for a catcher.  A leg injury could depress his stolen base numbers for a significant portion of the season.  Downgrade him significantly on your cheat sheets.

Torii Hunter  (OF – LAA) –  Speaking of groin injuries, Torii Hunter just re-agrivated his while sliding into second base.  Details on how serious it is are upcoming.  Outfielders use their legs a lot too, and the Angels can’t afford to lose Hunter for a long stretch of time.  I would expect them to be careful with their Gold Glove center fielder.

Ian Desmond  (SS – WAS) –  One of the more interesting position battles in 2010’s spring training is going on for the starting shortstop position on the Nationals.  Christian Guzman’s experience and veteran status make him the frontrunner, but he is still dealing with an arm injury (and let’s face it, he isn’t that awesome when healthy).  Meanwhile, Ian Desmond is getting jerked around.  It looked like they were going to let him start at second base until the team signed Adam Kennedy, and now Desmond is fighting for a spot on the roster.  Desmond offers a blend of power and speed, and the ability to hit for average and take a walk.  Fantasy GM’s should track this battle closely, as Desmond could be a nice sleeper if he can win the job.

Angel Guzman  (RP – CHC) –  It looks like Guzman is headed for shoulder surgery, and the race is on for the setup role in the Cub bullpen.  John Grabow and Jeff Gray are the likely candidates to set up for closer Carlos Marmol.  This is good news for Marmol owners, as his leash just got even longer should he struggle again in 2010.

Josh Fields  (3B/OF – KC) –  Alex Gordon broke his thumb and will miss about a month of action.  While he should come back and re-claim the starting third base job, this gives Josh Fields a chance to prove that his bat belongs somewhere in the lineup.  Even if Gordon steps right back in at third, a solid month of production from Fields should give him a step up on the other outfielders on the team that are fighting for playing time.

Joe Nathan  (RP – MIN) –  Going for an MRI.  Uh oh.  Stay tuned for details, Matt Guerrier is the favorite for saves should Nathan miss the start of the season.

Mark DeRosa  (3B/OF – SF) –  Mark DeRosa is still dealing with some soreness in his wrist.  He had surgery on it in the off-season and it has still not fully recovered.  This is very bad news for his fantasy value, which had already taken a big hit for two reasons.  Firstly, in 2009 his OBP dropped 60 points from his previous two seasons.  His strikeout rate took a huge jump, and he only gained 2 home runs from his 2008 total.  Secondly, he moved to the pitcher-friendly AT&T park (so him matching his 23 HR total from 2009 is far from likely).  He wasn’t a great pick before the news that his wrist is not healed.  Now, he is a terrible pick.

Nick Johnson  (1B – NYY) –  For those of you timing how long it would take for Nick Johnson to get dinged up, you may stop your stopwatches.  He has a sore back.  Normally, I would not even report something so innocuous as a sore back in spring training.  However, in the case of Nick “Fragile” Johnson, it is just an indication that it is the same old story with the breakable on-base machine.  Draft him hoping for 350 ABs, not 500.

Fernando Rodney  (RP – LAA) –  It looks as though Fernando Rodney will begin throwing soon.  One can assume that Brian Fuentes is now nervous.  Although Rodney had a 4.40 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP, he blew only one save in 2009.  Fuentes’ ratios were not much better in 2009, and he blew more saves.  If Rodney is significantly behind in his spring training, the result could be a longer leash for Fuentes.  However, I am guessing that leash runs out early this year.

Allen Craig  (1B/3B/OF – STL) -  This is a very interesting situation that I will track this spring.  By no means is Craig assured a roster spot this season.  It reminds me of back in the day when Tony LaRussa swore up and down that Albert Pujols was not going to break camp with the team.  Obviously he did and hasn’t looked back.  With the injury issues to Brendan Ryan, and presence of only stopgap options behind him, Craig could get a look if he performs well this spring.  Craig has played first base, third base, and the outfield.  With such versatility, it would not surprise me at all if he found a roster spot.  He was the organization’s player of the year in 2009, putting up stats that Brendan Ryan can only dream of.  He is also currently dealing with a minor quad injury, but is due to be back soon.  Track this closely, there is some sleeper potential here.

Joel Piniero  (SP – LAA) –  Not only do I not believe that Piniero is a fantasy asset, I think that he is very likely to waste a large amount of your bid money if you buy him in your 2010 fantasy baseball auction.  Sure, he threw a career high 214 innings, had a 3.77 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP.  However if you look a little closer, you will see that his secondary numbers paint a less optimistic picture of his “breakout” season.  His K/9 rate dropped to a career low 4.42.  While his BAA was not terrible at .265 (which is decent, not great) he still let up more hits than innings pitched.  If it were not for his career best BB/9 rate (which was WAY beyond his career norms, about half what it had been the previous two seasons), his WHIP could have done some damage to fantasy teams.  So sure, if he can hold that walk rate down, his ratios may not be terrible.  However, paying for a pitcher that is moving from the National to the American League after a career season is exactly the way that a fantasy GM can get burned and waste either bid money or a too high a pick in a fantasy baseball draft.  Oh yeah, he struggled his first start this spring.

Jason Heyward  (OF – ATL) –  Heyward is impressing early this spring with his plate discipline and defense.  Matt Diaz is still a threat to a full season worth of ABs, but the ceiling is just so much higher for the younger Heyward.  He is very young, and could struggle at times, however he is a real talent that you should track closely this spring.  If he breaks camp with a starting job, he could be a nice fantasy baseball sleeper for 2010.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia  (C – TEX) –  There is an open competition going on for the starting catcher role on the Rangers.  Salty and Taylor Teagarden are neck and neck.  While this competition would ideally result in finding which one should start this season, more likely it will result in finding which one will get the greater end of a platoon.  Salty did manager to have a good game Thursday, going 2-3 with a 3-run bomb.  However, that is not going to seal the deal.  An maintained offensive explosion from one of them could tip the balance.  If you have to chose between one or the other, go with Salty until you have Teagarden does something special.

Q:  Is Francisco Liriano’s good off-season performance going to continue against big league hitters?

Francisco Liriano is sure to be on many 2010 fantasy baseball sleeper lists.  His phenomenal potential which he displayed in 2006 is not going to just be forgotten.  Though his numbers in 2009 were awful, smart and attentive GMs will know that he has been throwing very well this off-season.  Reportedly hitting 95 mph, he posted a .186 BAA with a 1.54 ERA and .86 WHIP in the Dominican Winter League.  Now, we have to be aware that Liriano’s winter ball numbers are an extremely small sample size (11.7 IN).  Every pitcher goes through stretches where they seem to be untouchable, and certainly 12 innings is not enough to decide that Liriano is back to form.  However, if he comes into spring training and starts putting up similar ratios against tougher competition, he could be a gem for those of us that have paid close enough attention.

Q:  Is Brandon Wood ready to hit at the major league level?

I have been waiting for Brandon Wood to get a legitimate shot at a starting job for several seasons now.  It is very likely that you have been too.  However, you have to be aware that when he popped onto our radars, the picture we had in our heads was of a 40+ home run hitting shortstop.  Now that he will be playing third base, part of that value is gone.  Also, his K/BB rate has seen little progress in his limited major league ABs.  With the starting job all but handed to him for 2010, this spring should give us a little view of what could be coming.  If he continues to strike out much more than walk, I will greatly reduce the price I am willing to pay.  If he makes some progress, I would bump him up on my sleeper list.

Q:  Was David Ortiz’ power outage an aberration or the beginnings of a decline?

When talking purely about power, spring training is not really something for which we are going to get a definitive answer.  After all, many of the ABs that David Ortiz will receive this spring will be against pitchers that are not ready to face major league hitters.  A couple of 85 mph fastballs at the wrong time could result in home runs that taint the sample we get to see from a power hitter.  Supposedly, Ortiz has been pulling the ball more in recent seasons, and an opposite field approach could help his numbers.  With a failed PED test, there is reason to believe that hitting the ball to left field is not the real reason his power numbers have dropped.

Q:  Will Grady Sizemore return to put up numbers close to his past 30-30 performance?

With two separate surgeries in 2009, I am willing to chalk Grady Sizemore’s poor numbers up to injury.  Yet, a smart fantasy GM will have to accept that the risk of injury is increased.  Also, it is very possible that there could be some residual decline due to last year’s problems.  A elbow injury could continue to affect his power, and a groin injury could keep him from running as much.  This is in addition to the fact that the Indians are offensively terrible.  A reduction in the number of runs he will score should be assumed.  With Sizemore moving to the second slot in the batting order, his RBI total may improve, but that is far from assured.  He is young enough to return to elite status, but fantasy GMs should be a little skeptical until they see him playing without restriction.

Q:  How will Matt LaPorta find the ABs he needs to break-out in 2010?

The addition of Russell Branyan has put a haze around the role of one of 2010’s biggest fantasy baseball sleepers.  When Branyan first signed, I along with most baseball people assumed that he would be filling a part time or DH role.  However, Manny Acta said that Branyan has the inside track on the starting first base job.  Most of us assumed that Matt LaPorta would get the shot that we have been waiting for him to get.  Now it appears as though he will either have to win a job in the outfield (likely at the expense of Michael Brantley) or have Branyan stumble early to get a full season of ABs.  Personally, I am skeptical that Branyan can stay both healthy and effective for long stretches of time, so LaPorta should get his shot.

Q:  What the heck is the Royals starting lineup going to look like?

This is not an easy question, as their roster contains a ton of players that have been starters in the past, and also many players that have the potential to be better than those starters.  Players such as Rick Ankiel, Alberto Callaspo, Yuniesky Betancourt, and David Dejesus have held starting jobs before.  They had better produce, however, because the off-season has seen the addition of Josh Fields and Chris Getz.  That, combined with the return of Mike Aviles, could drastically change that starting lineup.  Another large question is how much faith they have in Alex Gordon.  With Fields able to play both third base and the outfield (not that his defense is very good at either position), there are not many players other than Billy Butler that should feel their job is safe.

Q:  Is Alfonso Soriano’s knee healthy?

You should get the visions of a return to 40-40 form out of your head right now (even 30-30 is just ridiculous).  With the injuries Alfonso Soriano has suffered, it is unclear how much of the decline in his numbers is due to those ailments and how much is due to an eroding skill set.  Having a bad knee certainly reduces his stolen base potential, and it is not hard to imagine that it has drained part of his power as well.  Reports out of Cubs camp are that his knee is not yet 100%, but it is better than it was last season.  The question is how much better, and will he be able to make a rebound in 2010?  Spring training could give us a little insight into how much he will be worth (or should be discounted) in 2010 fantasy baseball auctions and drafts.  At the least we should see how healthy he really is.

Q:  Who will win the starting center-field job for the Reds?

I briefly covered this situation in the latest Quick Fix article.  While no one will deny that Chris Dickerson has the tools to develop into a quality major league hitter, Drew Stubbs greatly outperformed him when given the chance in 2009.  Dusty Baker has come forward and said that Stubbs deserves to play because of that performance.  If Dickerson can prove that he has rediscovered the power that left him last year, he could push the issue.  However, at this point it seems that Stubbs is the frontrunner.

Q:  Will Jay Bruce learn to hit lefties?

The reality is that the spring will probably not give us enough information to answer this question, but you should be aware that this is the major stumbling block Jay Bruce has met with in his young career.  We all know that he has massive power potential in his bat, but that alone is not enough to justify the large price which he is sure to command.  After hitting .190 against lefties in 2008 and .210 in 2009, he still has work to do in order to keep his overall BA from hurting fantasy teams.  That said, he proved that he can hit in the minor leagues, and is still young enough to have those skills translate into major league ability.

Bobby Jenks  (RP – CWS) –  I like Bobby Jenks for the 2010 season.  He has showed up to camp 20 pounds lighter, and has quit drinking alcohol.  In 2009 his K/9 rate rose for the first time in years, and he seems to be re-decicating himself to his craft.  His job security is fairly high, and if he actually can continue to maintain a good K rate, he should be just as strong as he usually is.  Bump him up a few slots on your cheat sheets.

Troy Glaus  (1B/3B – ATL) –  Troy Glaus makes for an interesting fantasy baseball sleeper in 2010.  He is healthy, and looking good early in camp.  Of course, just because he is healthy at this particular moment doesn’t mean that he will stay that way, and you should be aware that drafting Glaus contains some risk of injury.  However, if you can get him late or cheap, he should be able to provide nice pop.  His defense at first base is still a project, so track the progress he makes during the spring to make sure a full season of ABs is assured (barring injury).

Rajai Davis  (OF – OAK) –  According to Ricky Henderson, Davis has the speed to lead the league in stolen bases in 2010.  However, the crowded nature of the Oakland outfield makes me worry about him getting the ABs he would need to do so.  After 404 major league ABs in 2007 and 2008 during which he struggled to maintain a decent batting average, 2009 saw him hit over .300 for the first time.  He still needs to work on taking walks more often, but he did hit for a decent average in the minor leagues.

Jose Reyes  (SS – NYM) –  In his first AB, Jose Reyes hit a triple and ran without a problem.  This is a good sign for those of you in keeper leagues that held him over for 2010.  However, it does not mean that the risk involved in owning him has gone away.  He will still be one play away from re-injuring that hamstring all year long.  I have said it before: Jose Reyes is the highest risk/reward gamble for the 2010 season, and he won’t be cheap.

Drew Stubbs  (OF – CIN) –  While Chris Dickerson wants to start, Dusty Baker is unwilling to remove Drew Stubbs from the center field slot until he has a reason to do so.  Dickerson was given a chance to win the job last season, but injury and a lack of pop made the Reds look for other options.  Stubbs stepped up last season, and posted 8 HRs and 10 SBs in only 180 ABs.  While his K/BB rate could stand some improvement, it seems that he has a little more offensive potential than the athletic Dickerson.  Baker can be unpredictable with younger players (unless we are talking about pitchers, in which case he will abuse their arms) so a platoon could develop.  However, it seems that Stubbs will have to falter in order to open the door for Dickerson to play as a starter.  Right now, however, it looks like Stubbs is a nice sleeper who’s 2009 numbers are low profile enough for him to slip under your competition’s radar.

James Loney  (1B – LAD) –  Apparently James Loney put on a good amount of muscle in the off season.  He says that he thinks this year his power will take a step forward.  There are three possible outcomes.  He could: 1) Stay the same player he has been.  2) He could be right and hit for more power.  3) He could be wrong, but trying to hit for more power could take away from his batting average.  Overall, statements like “this is the year I will hit for more power” should not affect the price you are willing to pay for a player.

Pablo Sandoval (1B/3B – SF) –  Pablo Sandoval is now wearing prescription goggles in the batter’s box.  The thought that he was able to hit so well while not seeing the ball clearly should scare the living hell out of all pitchers.  He could be scary-good in 2010.

Jose Bautista  (OF – TOR) –  Believe it or not, Bautista is currently the favorite to start in right field for the Blue Jays.  Yes, I am just as surprised as you are, and no, I do not expect that situation to last very long.  More likely it is a motivational tool being used to get Travis Snider to step up this season.  Bautista is a .238 career hitter, and does not offer the power that the Jays lack.

Ben Sheets  (SP – OAK) –  Sheets is telling anyone that will listen that he is 100% healthy this season.  While this is normal talk for an injury prone player like Sheets, this is also the type of player that can help you win the league.  He has no stats from 2009 for your competition to see, so he could fly right under their radar.  Even if there are a few members of your league that are watching him this spring, they will likely be hesitant to bid more than a few dollars in order to land him.  Lemme give you another name that was very similar to Sheets’s situation in 2009… Chris Carpenter.  That worked out pretty well for those GMs that took the gamble on him.  If Sheet’s velocity is where it should be late in the spring, I will gamble on him for the right price.

Josh Hamilton  (OF – TEX) –  Shoulder problems last year, and already a shoulder contusion this spring.  For the most part, his story makes you want to root for him.  His career year in 2008 was awesome, but has to be put in context.  That was two years ago, after many years of his talent being wasted.  He is not some 22 year old superstar.  He is 29 years old, and an injury risk.  Root for him, but don’t pay as though he is going to be a core member of your keeper league for years.

Octavio Dotel  (RP – PIT) –  He is the favorite to start the season closing games for the Pirates, so he has to be on your radar.  Here is the skinny.  He has met with some success throughout his career, and has put up the occasional great season.  Yet he has not been able to hold down the closer’s role for long stretches whether due to injury or ineffectiveness.  Now 36 years old, this could easily be his last chance to hold a role this significant (and perhaps extend his career a couple of years).  His ERA in 2009 was great, but his K/9 rate dropped from 12.86 down to 10.83 (which is still by all means respectable), and his BB/9 rate went up from 3.9 to 5.2.  The lack of other good options should give him a nice long leash, but don’t be surprised if that leash eventually runs out.  Also note that he is dealing with some side soreness, which is not the start he was looking for.

Stephen Strasburg (SP – WAS) –  If you watch as much ESPN as I do, you have probably heard the story on this kid.  He is supposedly awesome, and Pudge Rodrigeuz recently threw his two cents in about Strasburg to the media.  When asked if Strasburg has stuff similar to Justin Verlander, he said that Nolan Ryan was a closer comparison.  That type of comment obviously has to be taken with a grain of salt, but it is exactly the type of thing that make fantasy baseball GMs drool about a player, and thus overpay for him.  The story I like even better is how Strasburg’s nickname is evolving.  Supposedly they are calling him “Jesus”, because when hitters make their out against him they walk away muttering, “Jesus!”.  Be careful reaching for Strasburg in your fantasy baseball draft or auction.  While the Nationals do need starters pretty badly, there is just no telling how much (or little) time in the majors he will get.

Mike Napoli  (C – LAA) –  Mike Napoli may get it.  He is working on his defense, apparently switching to a bigger glove.  Napoli has tremendous power, and has managed to keep him batting average high enough not to hurt fantasy teams.  His lack of ABs over the last three years is the only reason he is not considered among the elite catchers.  If his defense can improve to the point where Mike Scioscia can trust him for 120-130 games, he could be one of the big fantasy baseball breakouts of 2010.  Of course, a bigger glove is not going to help him call a better game for his pitchers.  It remains to be seen if it is an issue of his pitch calling or actually catching the ball that is the major part of the problem.

Francisco Liriano  (SP – MIN) –  Early reports are good, as was his stint in the Dominican League over the winter.  He says he feels like he is getting back into his rookie year form.  While I am not willing to pay as though that is certain, I could easily believe that he can make enough comeback to make a modest bid worth while.  Since his 2009 numbers were not very good, he is similar to Ben Sheets in that his profile should be fairly low.

Michael Brantley  (OF – CLE) –  My pick for A.L. ROY’s chances to actually win the award took a big hit yesterday when Russell Branyan was said to be the front runner for the starting first base job.  Such a move would put 2010 fantasy baseball sleeper Matt LaPorta into the outfield, and put uber-sleeper Brantley in AAA.  It remains to be seen if Branyan can stay effective and healthy at the same time, so don’t give up on Brantley quite yet.  He now he needs either LaPorta or Branyan to fail in order to get the ABs he needs.  He has the ability to step up should the opportunity to win a job present itself.

Chone Figgins  (3B? – SEA) –  I have been doing a lot of stat trivia on Twitter lately, and I keep coming across Figgins’ name.  He had a great year last season.  He was the only player in the majors that walked at least 100 times and stole over 20 bases in 2009.  His OBP was almost .400, and he stole over 30 bases for the 6th straight season.  However, the reason that I am writing about him today is that the Mariners are considering moving him to second base.  An excellent defender at third, I would be surprised if this actually happened.  Yet his 2010 fantasy baseball value would take a huge jump should they make this move official.

A.L. ROY – Michael Brantley –  Will win the job, hit for average, steal bases.

N.L. ROY – Jason Heyward – Should be starting from the beginning of the season.

A.L. Cy Young – Zach Greinke (second place – Felix Hernandez) That’s right, folks.  He is for real.

N.L. Cy Young – Tim Lincecum (second place – Dan Haren) Haren finally puts it together in the second half, but The Freak is just too good.

A.L. Fantasy MVP – Ian Kinsler –  I am a believer that he can get that batting average.

N.L. Fantasy MVP – Albert Pujols –  How can anyone deny this?

A.L. Hitter Breakout – Adam Jones –  If he can keep that left foot healthy, he should thrive.

N.L. Hitter Breakout – Jay Bruce –  Gotta figure out the lefties, but 3rd time is the charm.

A.L. Pitcher Breakout - Matt Garza –  K rate spiked in 2009, wins should follow.

N.L. Pitcher Breakout – Clayton Kershaw –  So young, and ready to join the elite.

A.L. Hitter Most Overpaid for – Aaron Hill –  Don’t you believe that 30 HRs are assured.

N.L. Hitter Most Overpaid for –  Mark Reynolds –  Too much room for doubt.  Only sure thing is a bad BA.

A.L. Pitcher Most Overpaid for – Javier Vazquez –  A.L., ballpark working against ratios.

N.L. Pitcher Most Overpaid for – Ubaldo Jimenez –  Too wild.

A.L. Shakiest Closer (with job now) – Brian Fuentes –  Most saves in 2009, terrible WHIP, Angels signed Rodney.

N.L. Shakiest Closer (with job now) – Brandon Lyon – What were the Astros thinking?

A.L. Bargain Closer – Rafael Soriano –  Health is the only risk here.

N.L. Best Bargain Closer – Billy Wagner –  Wasn’t really in any decline before injury.

A.L. Best Save Vulture – Fernando Rodney –  Only a matter of time…

N.L. Best Save Vulture – Jason Motte –  Franklin’s numbers way beyond career averages.  Motte spits fire.

A.L. Comeback Player – Adrian Beltre –  Change to a good team in a better park while healthy should make him a bargain.

N.L. Comeback Player – Brandon Webb –  Best sinker in the game.

A.L. Sleeper to Watch – Clay Buchholz –  4 pitches and now a bit of seasoning.  Sounds a lot like Greinke.

N.L. Sleeper to Watch – Kyle Blanks –  Big man, big power, showed up in shape.

A.L. Take a Flyer on – Brandon Wood –  This could finally be the time..

N.L. Take a Flyer on – Eric Young Jr. –  Speed to burn, gotta find a place to play.

UNDER/OVER

18 HRS for David Wright - OVER (22)

.300 BA for Jason Bartlett – UNDER (.290)

28 HRs for Joe Mauer – UNDER (22)

180 IN for Chris Carpenter – OVER (210)

30 Saves for Rafael Soriano – OVER (37)

50 SBs for Nyjer Morgan – OVER (52)

4.0 ERA for Javier Vazquez – OVER (4.30)

400 ABs for Mike Napoli – OVER (460)

4.0 Post All-Star Break ERA for Dan Haren – UNDER (3.30)

Carlos Quentin  (OF – CWS) –  The knock on Quentin for a long time has been the fact that he is injury prone.  After his breakout season in 2008, he showed why fantasy baseball owners hesitate to pay full price for that type of player.  Losing much of the 2009 season to wrist and heel injuries, Quentin saw his numbers drop.  However, if you are willing to gamble that he will stay healthy in 2010, his fantasy baseball value should make a large recovery.  His power remained intact, holding a 16.7 AB/HR rate in 2009.  This is only 3 ABs per home run fewer than in 2008.  Even going back to his minor league career, he has been a strong OBP player with an excellent K/BB ratio.  With the skills he brings to the table, it is only the chance of more injury that keeps his price low.  2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections:  .282 BA, 34 HR, 102 RBI, 100 R, 4 SBs, 505 ABs

Grady Sizemore  (OF – CLE) –  Grady Sizemore was my #1 ranked fantasy baseball outfielder going into the 2009 season.  That is not too hard to believe after he put up a 30-30 season in 2008.  However, the fact that the Indians are pathetic and injuries he suffered reduced that power/speed combo to a 18-13 line.  Now join me for this next part….. YIPEEEE!!!!  Grady Sizemore’s value as not been lower in years, and in all likelyhood will not be this low for years more to come.  In my keeper leagues, he has been untouchable…. until now.  When his names comes up in your fantasy baseball auction, call out, “multiple surgeries”, and then bid $1 more.  Is there risk the injury resurfaces?  Sure.  Is 30-30 upside worth that risk?  Yes, especially for those of you in fantasy baseball keeper leagues.  Sizemore is only 28 this year, and cannot be written off after one sub-par season.  2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections: .273 BA, 25 HR, 92 RBI, 90 R, 28 SB, 559 AB.

Troy Glaus  (3B/1B – ATL) –  Remember him?  I’m not sure if Glaus qualifies as a fantasy baseball sleeper since most everyone knows who he is.  However, he is definitely a candidate for a major rebound after only managing 29 ABs in the 2009 season.  Now make sure you read that correctly.  A rebound, not a rebirth.  You can expect that the power will return now that his shoulder is healthy.  You can also expect his batting average to still remain a liability to your team.   He is slated to be a starter, however, since his numbers were non-existant in 2009, he is just the type of player that you can slip by your competition very late or very cheap.  Even though he has been less of an asset than he was early in his career, his K/BB ratio is right where it has been for years.  Now a first baseman, the risk of injury is (slightly) lower, but keep in mind it is still there.  Do not pay as though he is going to hit the same 28 HRs he did in 2008, but don’t kid yourself.  If he is healthy, he has value.  2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections:  .252 BA, 22 HR, 88 RBI, 79 R, 3 SB, 485 AB.

Aramis Ramirez  (3B – CHC) –  Ranked near the top of third base cheat sheets for years, Aramis Ramirez was held to just 306 ABs in 2009, he should be cheaper than he has been since 2002.  Yet when you look at his numbers on a per at-bat basis, his home run rate and run production was right where it should be.  Top that off with his highest batting average since 2004, and you aren’t going to get much better numbers from a half-season.  The progress he has made in his K/BB ratio is noticeable, and his OBP has risen for three straight seasons.  Take the discount that will come this year and expect a return to his former level. 2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections:  .301 BA, 29 HR, 106 RBI, 99 R, 1 SB, 528 AB.

Jake Peavy  (SP – CWS) –  Jake Peavy has been ranked among the elite starting pitchers since his breakout season in 2004.  An ankle injury derailed his 2009 campaign.  Read that again…. “an ankle injury”.  This is not a case where surgery was done to fix an elbow or shoulder, which means that Peavy’s arm is just fine.  Perhaps you competition will only see the reduced innings in 2009 and not bother to check what Peavy was suffering from.  Pile on top of that the change from the National League to the American, and his change to a pitcher-friendly ballpark to one that favors hitters, and his price could drop even further.  If this proves to be the case during your draft, you will most likely be able to steal him for less or later than he has gone for years.  I would agree with critics that Peavy’s ERA will likely take a hit with the change of league and ballpark, however his BAA has remained consistently excellent throughout his career, and his WHIP hasn’t been above 1.23 since 2003, so the increase will likely be small.  Whatever value he loses due to the rise in ERA will likely be offset by the increased number of wins he will receive now that he is off of the lowly Padres.  2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections:  17 W, 3.25 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 185 K, 210 IN

Matt Garza  (SP – TB) –  I like seeing his K/9 rate jump over 2 Ks to 8.38 in 2009.  His BAA also dropped to .236.  If he can shake the increase in his BB/9 rate, Garza could be one of the nicer sleepers for a breakout season in 2010.  The best part?  The fact that Garza won only 8 games in 2009 may keep the price low enough to make him a bargain.

Chien-Ming Wang  (SP – NYY) –  The fact that he won 19 games two straight years hides how mediocre an option Wang is for your fantasy team.  Plenty of fantasy GMs (and at least one MLB GM) will look right past the other numbers and focus on that wins total.  They will ignore the injuries that have held him to just 137 innings pitched over the last two seasons, they will ignore the incredibly poor K/9 rate he posts even in his healthy seasons (3.14 – 2006, 4.70 – 2007).  They will gloss over the fact that his WHIP in those healthy seasons was 1.31 and 1.29 respectively.  So, we have an injury prone pitcher who is a little too hittable, a little too wild, with a notable lack of dominance on the mound.  Is he an upgrade for the Nationals?  Sure, since their rotation was in such awful shape.  However the reality is that the fact he won 19 games for the Yankees twice is the only reason he is even on most fantasy GMs radar.  Do yourself a favor.  Cover his wins total up, and look at the rest of his numbers.  Now, what would you pay for THAT player?

Jair Jurrjens  (SP – ATL) –  An MRI recently showed that Jurrjens had no structural damage to his shoulder.  That is GREAT!  Jurrjens was very consistent in 2009, posting a sub 3.0 ERA in both the first and second half of the season.  He held batters to a .235 BA, and saw an increase in his K/9 rate over the second half of the season.  With a little more control, Jurrjens is a potential breakout starter in 2010.  This may be the last season you can get Jurrjens at a medium price.

Brandon Inge  (3B – DET) –  I am not a believer in Inge’s fantasy baseball value.  His batting average is routinely suspect, his power is mediocre at best, and seldom does he put together success with both in the same season.  His knees may be healthy, but coming off of a season where his HR production is way up, you know his price will be way up too.  When the bidding comes up on him, keep his .186 second half batting average in mind and stay away.

Carlos Zambrano  (SP – CHC) –  He has supposedly lost weight this off-season.  Now, that is normally just a side-note for a player.  However, for a player like Zambrano who’s biggest weakness is a lack of focus, this could be a turning point.  The perennial under-acheiver may finally be taking the job seriously, and may have realized the amount of commitment that is necessary for success at an elite level.  Bump his value up a bit if he early spring reports have him throwing well.

Jose Reyes  (SS – NYM) –  Early reports are that Reyes’ repaired hamstring is coming along nicely.  That doesn’t mean a damn thing, and you should know that.  His primary fantasy value is his legs.  A muscle in his leg was torn.  That means that this will be a concern every single day he plays for the season.  Any stolen base attempt could result in re-injuring it, costing him (potentially) the entire season.  Does he have the potential to be give your fantasy team first-round type production?  Sure.  Is it worth paying as if that production is assured?  No.  There are plenty of places to get speed, you don’t need to hop on the highest risk/reward bandwagon in 2010.

Brandon Lyon  (RP – HOU) –  Lyon is going to be behind other pitchers to start spring training due to a cyst in his shoulder that he had drained.  Uh oh.  His job security is among the lowest among closers in the league, and this is not the way to change that for the better.  He has limited success in his track record and Matt Lindstrom nipping at his heels.  While the Astros paid for him as though he was a good bet for their 9th inning duties, you should not.

Stephen Strasburg  (SP – WAS) –  The “phenom” is supposedly completely healthy after knee issues.  Strasburg also supposedly impressed during a brief throwing session.  He is one of the high upside starting pitchers for 2010.  He has also proven nothing at all at the big league level.  There is a learning curve at the big league level, especially when talking about pitchers.  Most of these phenoms do not have the success which the experts predict for years after reaching the show (if ever), and you should keep that in mind when bidding for him in 2010 fantasy baseball drafts or auctions.  Also keep in mind that David Price was last season’s Strasburg, and that didn’t work out the way his owners would have liked.

Daisuke Matsuzaka  (SP – BOS) –  Dice-K reported a little tightness in his back.  He may start spring training behind other pitchers.  This is more of a “watch” situation.  If he is throwing well in late in the spring, leave your sheets unchanged.  2009 was almost a lost season for Dice-K, as he apparently had a spring training injury that was never taken care of, affecting him all season.  He could be a nice rebound candidate for 2010.

Recent Career

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There is a very large sample size to look at for Johnny Damon.  Of course, this is also another way of saying that he is getting old.  He has had at least 472 ABs in every season since 1996, so there can be no denying that he is durable.  That is probably the best thing that I can say about him.  If you draft him (and he has found a starting job somewhere) he will get you those 500 ABs that you must have.  For years Damon has been a nice blend of power and speed, though he has rarely been able to put all the pieces together in the same season.  He has gone 20-20 only once in his career.  In fact, he has hit 20 or more home runs only in only 3 seasons.  Bottom line, when you have drafted Damon over the last decade, you felt safe that you would receive 15ish HRs, with 25ish SBs, 100 runs, and a batting average that would help your fantasy team.

Secondary Numbers

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Damon has seen a steady increase in his BB rate over the last many seasons.  From 2001-2008, his BB rate has increased from 8.5% to the  10.5% range.  This number reached a career high in 2009 when he posted a BB rate of 11.3%.  Of all the secondary numbers, this is the only one that I can find which says that he is getting better.  Rest assured, I am about to show you why this is a very minor number when put in context.  His K rate has also been in a steady rise.  Whereas in Boston he was able to keep that rate around 11%, that number immediately jumped to 14.3% when moving to New York, and reached a career high in 2009 at 17.8%.  The result has been a complete negation of the BB increase in his BB/K ratio.  In his Boston days that numbers was ABOVE .90 in three out of four seasons.  Since moving to New York, it has been BELOW .80 in three out of four seasons.  So while his BB rate increased, his K rate has increased significantly more.

After years of posting home run totals in the 10-20 range, Damon muscled up for 24 HR in 2009.  His ISO (isolated power) jumped to a career high of .207.  This number when compared to the large sample size of his career looks to be an outlier.  He has only one other season with an ISO over .172 (2006).  This is also confirmed by looking at Damon’s fly-ball rate which jumped over 8% in 2009.

More bad news.  His contact rates are down.  Since 2002, Damon has not recorded a lower contact rate than he did in 2009.  It has fallen 3.5% since posting an 88.0% rate in 2005.  He also swung at a career high percentage of balls outside of the strike zone in 2009 (his contact rate on those pitches was NOT a career high).  It is worth noting that his SBs in 2009 dropped to less than half what they had been in the previous three seasons.  Take that in context, however, as the power surge for Damon (as well as for the Yankees in general) may have put the red light on Damon.  Also, he was not caught stealing at all last year.  So this decrease could be a result of the team’s situation rather than a loss of speed on Damon’s part.

Fantasy Implications

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So what does this all mean to a fantasy GM?  Well, firstly it means that you should follow the lead of MLB GMs and be skeptical of Damon’s production for the 2010 fantasy baseball season.  His name makes him high profile, and there will definitely be GMs in your league that will expect the power to continue and the SBs to return.  The latest rumors have Damon close to signing with either the Tigers or the Braves.  Both of those teams play in ballparks that are significantly less friendly to hitters, so the power is likely to decline even more than if he stayed in New York.  Both of those teams have less potent offenses, so the runs scored and RBI are likely to decline.  I would expect the SBs to increase to their former levels (25-30 SBs) due to both of those facts.  However, if you were hoping to protect Damon and ride him for a 20-20 season, you are very likely to be disappointed.  The numbers point to a guy that is trying to add power to make up for declining secondary numbers that make him a less valuable player to a team (more MLB than fantasy-wise).  It definitely does not help that his defense is suspect, and his arm is almost non-exsitant.  Watch where he lands, and if he has a full time job locked up rate him as a serviceable OF that will play all season long.  That is a valuable commodity.  Just don’t pay for him as though he is a power/speed threat playing for the most powerful offense in the American League.  He just isn’t that player.  Pay no more than $16 in your auction.  2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections:  .288 BA, 14 HR, 66 RBI, 89 R, 26 SB in 569 AB.