Q:  Is Francisco Liriano’s good off-season performance going to continue against big league hitters?

Francisco Liriano is sure to be on many 2010 fantasy baseball sleeper lists.  His phenomenal potential which he displayed in 2006 is not going to just be forgotten.  Though his numbers in 2009 were awful, smart and attentive GMs will know that he has been throwing very well this off-season.  Reportedly hitting 95 mph, he posted a .186 BAA with a 1.54 ERA and .86 WHIP in the Dominican Winter League.  Now, we have to be aware that Liriano’s winter ball numbers are an extremely small sample size (11.7 IN).  Every pitcher goes through stretches where they seem to be untouchable, and certainly 12 innings is not enough to decide that Liriano is back to form.  However, if he comes into spring training and starts putting up similar ratios against tougher competition, he could be a gem for those of us that have paid close enough attention.

Q:  Is Brandon Wood ready to hit at the major league level?

I have been waiting for Brandon Wood to get a legitimate shot at a starting job for several seasons now.  It is very likely that you have been too.  However, you have to be aware that when he popped onto our radars, the picture we had in our heads was of a 40+ home run hitting shortstop.  Now that he will be playing third base, part of that value is gone.  Also, his K/BB rate has seen little progress in his limited major league ABs.  With the starting job all but handed to him for 2010, this spring should give us a little view of what could be coming.  If he continues to strike out much more than walk, I will greatly reduce the price I am willing to pay.  If he makes some progress, I would bump him up on my sleeper list.

Q:  Was David Ortiz’ power outage an aberration or the beginnings of a decline?

When talking purely about power, spring training is not really something for which we are going to get a definitive answer.  After all, many of the ABs that David Ortiz will receive this spring will be against pitchers that are not ready to face major league hitters.  A couple of 85 mph fastballs at the wrong time could result in home runs that taint the sample we get to see from a power hitter.  Supposedly, Ortiz has been pulling the ball more in recent seasons, and an opposite field approach could help his numbers.  With a failed PED test, there is reason to believe that hitting the ball to left field is not the real reason his power numbers have dropped.

Q:  Will Grady Sizemore return to put up numbers close to his past 30-30 performance?

With two separate surgeries in 2009, I am willing to chalk Grady Sizemore’s poor numbers up to injury.  Yet, a smart fantasy GM will have to accept that the risk of injury is increased.  Also, it is very possible that there could be some residual decline due to last year’s problems.  A elbow injury could continue to affect his power, and a groin injury could keep him from running as much.  This is in addition to the fact that the Indians are offensively terrible.  A reduction in the number of runs he will score should be assumed.  With Sizemore moving to the second slot in the batting order, his RBI total may improve, but that is far from assured.  He is young enough to return to elite status, but fantasy GMs should be a little skeptical until they see him playing without restriction.

Q:  How will Matt LaPorta find the ABs he needs to break-out in 2010?

The addition of Russell Branyan has put a haze around the role of one of 2010’s biggest fantasy baseball sleepers.  When Branyan first signed, I along with most baseball people assumed that he would be filling a part time or DH role.  However, Manny Acta said that Branyan has the inside track on the starting first base job.  Most of us assumed that Matt LaPorta would get the shot that we have been waiting for him to get.  Now it appears as though he will either have to win a job in the outfield (likely at the expense of Michael Brantley) or have Branyan stumble early to get a full season of ABs.  Personally, I am skeptical that Branyan can stay both healthy and effective for long stretches of time, so LaPorta should get his shot.

Q:  What the heck is the Royals starting lineup going to look like?

This is not an easy question, as their roster contains a ton of players that have been starters in the past, and also many players that have the potential to be better than those starters.  Players such as Rick Ankiel, Alberto Callaspo, Yuniesky Betancourt, and David Dejesus have held starting jobs before.  They had better produce, however, because the off-season has seen the addition of Josh Fields and Chris Getz.  That, combined with the return of Mike Aviles, could drastically change that starting lineup.  Another large question is how much faith they have in Alex Gordon.  With Fields able to play both third base and the outfield (not that his defense is very good at either position), there are not many players other than Billy Butler that should feel their job is safe.

Q:  Is Alfonso Soriano’s knee healthy?

You should get the visions of a return to 40-40 form out of your head right now (even 30-30 is just ridiculous).  With the injuries Alfonso Soriano has suffered, it is unclear how much of the decline in his numbers is due to those ailments and how much is due to an eroding skill set.  Having a bad knee certainly reduces his stolen base potential, and it is not hard to imagine that it has drained part of his power as well.  Reports out of Cubs camp are that his knee is not yet 100%, but it is better than it was last season.  The question is how much better, and will he be able to make a rebound in 2010?  Spring training could give us a little insight into how much he will be worth (or should be discounted) in 2010 fantasy baseball auctions and drafts.  At the least we should see how healthy he really is.

Q:  Who will win the starting center-field job for the Reds?

I briefly covered this situation in the latest Quick Fix article.  While no one will deny that Chris Dickerson has the tools to develop into a quality major league hitter, Drew Stubbs greatly outperformed him when given the chance in 2009.  Dusty Baker has come forward and said that Stubbs deserves to play because of that performance.  If Dickerson can prove that he has rediscovered the power that left him last year, he could push the issue.  However, at this point it seems that Stubbs is the frontrunner.

Q:  Will Jay Bruce learn to hit lefties?

The reality is that the spring will probably not give us enough information to answer this question, but you should be aware that this is the major stumbling block Jay Bruce has met with in his young career.  We all know that he has massive power potential in his bat, but that alone is not enough to justify the large price which he is sure to command.  After hitting .190 against lefties in 2008 and .210 in 2009, he still has work to do in order to keep his overall BA from hurting fantasy teams.  That said, he proved that he can hit in the minor leagues, and is still young enough to have those skills translate into major league ability.

Ben Sheets  (SP – OAK) –  Sheets is telling anyone that will listen that he is 100% healthy this season.  While this is normal talk for an injury prone player like Sheets, this is also the type of player that can help you win the league.  He has no stats from 2009 for your competition to see, so he could fly right under their radar.  Even if there are a few members of your league that are watching him this spring, they will likely be hesitant to bid more than a few dollars in order to land him.  Lemme give you another name that was very similar to Sheets’s situation in 2009… Chris Carpenter.  That worked out pretty well for those GMs that took the gamble on him.  If Sheet’s velocity is where it should be late in the spring, I will gamble on him for the right price.

Josh Hamilton  (OF – TEX) –  Shoulder problems last year, and already a shoulder contusion this spring.  For the most part, his story makes you want to root for him.  His career year in 2008 was awesome, but has to be put in context.  That was two years ago, after many years of his talent being wasted.  He is not some 22 year old superstar.  He is 29 years old, and an injury risk.  Root for him, but don’t pay as though he is going to be a core member of your keeper league for years.

Octavio Dotel  (RP – PIT) –  He is the favorite to start the season closing games for the Pirates, so he has to be on your radar.  Here is the skinny.  He has met with some success throughout his career, and has put up the occasional great season.  Yet he has not been able to hold down the closer’s role for long stretches whether due to injury or ineffectiveness.  Now 36 years old, this could easily be his last chance to hold a role this significant (and perhaps extend his career a couple of years).  His ERA in 2009 was great, but his K/9 rate dropped from 12.86 down to 10.83 (which is still by all means respectable), and his BB/9 rate went up from 3.9 to 5.2.  The lack of other good options should give him a nice long leash, but don’t be surprised if that leash eventually runs out.  Also note that he is dealing with some side soreness, which is not the start he was looking for.

Stephen Strasburg (SP – WAS) –  If you watch as much ESPN as I do, you have probably heard the story on this kid.  He is supposedly awesome, and Pudge Rodrigeuz recently threw his two cents in about Strasburg to the media.  When asked if Strasburg has stuff similar to Justin Verlander, he said that Nolan Ryan was a closer comparison.  That type of comment obviously has to be taken with a grain of salt, but it is exactly the type of thing that make fantasy baseball GMs drool about a player, and thus overpay for him.  The story I like even better is how Strasburg’s nickname is evolving.  Supposedly they are calling him “Jesus”, because when hitters make their out against him they walk away muttering, “Jesus!”.  Be careful reaching for Strasburg in your fantasy baseball draft or auction.  While the Nationals do need starters pretty badly, there is just no telling how much (or little) time in the majors he will get.

Mike Napoli  (C – LAA) –  Mike Napoli may get it.  He is working on his defense, apparently switching to a bigger glove.  Napoli has tremendous power, and has managed to keep him batting average high enough not to hurt fantasy teams.  His lack of ABs over the last three years is the only reason he is not considered among the elite catchers.  If his defense can improve to the point where Mike Scioscia can trust him for 120-130 games, he could be one of the big fantasy baseball breakouts of 2010.  Of course, a bigger glove is not going to help him call a better game for his pitchers.  It remains to be seen if it is an issue of his pitch calling or actually catching the ball that is the major part of the problem.

Francisco Liriano  (SP – MIN) –  Early reports are good, as was his stint in the Dominican League over the winter.  He says he feels like he is getting back into his rookie year form.  While I am not willing to pay as though that is certain, I could easily believe that he can make enough comeback to make a modest bid worth while.  Since his 2009 numbers were not very good, he is similar to Ben Sheets in that his profile should be fairly low.

Michael Brantley  (OF – CLE) –  My pick for A.L. ROY’s chances to actually win the award took a big hit yesterday when Russell Branyan was said to be the front runner for the starting first base job.  Such a move would put 2010 fantasy baseball sleeper Matt LaPorta into the outfield, and put uber-sleeper Brantley in AAA.  It remains to be seen if Branyan can stay effective and healthy at the same time, so don’t give up on Brantley quite yet.  He now he needs either LaPorta or Branyan to fail in order to get the ABs he needs.  He has the ability to step up should the opportunity to win a job present itself.

Chone Figgins  (3B? – SEA) –  I have been doing a lot of stat trivia on Twitter lately, and I keep coming across Figgins’ name.  He had a great year last season.  He was the only player in the majors that walked at least 100 times and stole over 20 bases in 2009.  His OBP was almost .400, and he stole over 30 bases for the 6th straight season.  However, the reason that I am writing about him today is that the Mariners are considering moving him to second base.  An excellent defender at third, I would be surprised if this actually happened.  Yet his 2010 fantasy baseball value would take a huge jump should they make this move official.

Minor League Career

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Gonzalez has shown decent power at every stop along his minor league career, but it is only recently that he has shown the ability to take the free pass.  Also, while Gonzalez does have speed, his success rate in the minors leaves something to be desired.  In his first two major stints in the minors (2006- DBacks A+, 2007 DBacks AA) his BB/K rate was miserable at .29 and .31, respectively.  In each season, the sample size of at-bats was over 400.  To be fair, his batting average during these two seasons was not an issue, as he hit .300 and then .286.  Near the end of the 2007 season, Gonzalez was traded to the Athletics, and spend a short amount of time (10 games) playing for their AAA team.  It was at this point that something changed in his game.

Some good coach in their organization must have preached the value of taking a walk, because in that ten game stretch his BB/K rate was 1.0.  The next season playing for that same team, he logged 173 ABs, and while his walk rate was not as high as 1.0, he did manage to improve it from his former .30ish level to .46.  Clearly, this excited the A’s and they gave him a nice long cuppa coffee in 2008.  Overwhelmed in his first big league opportunity, his BB/K rate hit a new low over his 302 ABs (.16).  Another trade later, and Gonzalez found himself in Colorado’s AAA affiliate.  He continued his improvement to post a .69 BB/K rate in 223 ABs, and that was all the Rockies needed to see.  He was promoted to the show, and this time found his stroke after just a short period.

2009

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It is easy to just look at the scoring categories and see that Gonzalez showed both power and speed with a good batting average.  Based on that alone, plenty of fantasy baseball GMs will pay huge dollars for the potential of further progress.  However, that is actually not where the story is.  If we continue looking at the secondary stats, we find that Gonzalez could well be on his way to being WORTH all those dollars that are going to be spent on him.

In that first month of 2009 especially, things looked bleak.  He was called up in June, and in that month he recorded a .23 BB/K.  In other words, he once again reverted to his old bad habits when faced with better pitching.  Someone must have sat him down and had a talk, because in July that rate rose back up to .67.  There is another number that I find encouraging for Gonzalez.  His percentage of balls swung at outside the strike-zone went down 2% from his 2008 major league campaign to that in 2009.  His contact rate went up 3%, and top that off with a 6% increase in his line-drive rate.  These are all signs that real progress being made by a young talent that is coming into his own.  The results are clear.  In the second half of the season, Gonzalez posted a .320 batting average with an OPS of .992.

Warning Signs

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The warnings signs here are primarily that when struggling Gonzalez tends to revert back to his free-swinging ways.  If you do chose to invest in this talent, keep a close watch on his BB/K rate.  If it begins to sink, it is time to start shopping him.  I have also read (and obviously have no personal knowledge about) that his work ethic and attitude have drawn criticism.  Perhaps the fact that listening to his coaches with regard to being selective at the plate has proven to work, will improve that.  Personally, I feel that since he is going to start regardless of attitude, that it is irrelevant.  I mean, Gary Sheffield and Barry Bonds were notorious dicks, and they were fantasy studs for years.

Fantasy Implications

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The kid is only 25 this season, and could easily take the next step in 2010.  It appears as though the plate discipline that he was lacking is coming around, and that could lead to the 5-tool player that all fantasy GMs want.  With a full-time job assured in 2010, he will get a full season to prove himself.  I expect him to take another step forward.  The Rockies like to run, so the speed should be an asset, and the power he showed in the second half of the season is real.  Since his numbers were good, but not eye-popping, it is possible that he could go in snake drafts after Adam Jones, but given the choice between the two, Gonzalez would be my choice.  I would place his top fantasy baseball auction value at $19, and expect a season of .278, 20 HR, 72 RBI, 82 R, 19 SB, 520 ABs.

In the arms race, my measure for predicting success is to look at the number of innings the arm in question has logged.  For hitters, success prediction is based ultimately in the number of at bats accrued and what that hitter has done with them.  So why not do the same with pitchers?  Let’s say we use 500-600 major league innings as the barometer.  Similar to the age 26-28 theory on the offensive side, pitchers seem to hit their stride around the 500 inning mark.  Give or take a few innings.  So let’s take a look at each of my break out candidates and see where they sit as we prepare to open the 2010 season.

Scott Baker  (MIN) –  2009 :  200.o IN, 15 W, 4.37 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 162 K

The 2009 season marked Baker’s 1^st time hitting the 200 inning mark, a major bar for most up and coming pitchers to hit.  What did he do with those innings?  He won 15 games and maintained excellent control despite what seemed to be a disastrous beginning.  Between 2008 and 2009 Baker saw a modest decrease in his already excellent BB/9, while maintaining and excellent 7 K’s/9.  Armed with a K/BB ratio of 3.38, Baker seems poised to really take off this year.  A savvy drafter will note that not only does Minnesota consistently develop pitchers with alarmingly terrific control, they also develop pitchers who exhibit tremendous mental composure.  Baker’s rebound from such a poor start last year coupled with his control, indicate to me that this bargain pitcher could be a major score if you draft him in the right spot—a number 3 or 4 pitcher in your rotation.

Jered Weaver  (LAA) – 2009 :  211.0 IN, 16 W, 3.75 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 174 K

It seems we’ve been talking about Jeff’s kid brother for some time now, and this year could be the year he breaks out in a major way.  Along with Baker, Weaver finally cleared the 200 inning bar and made the most of it.  Unlike Baker, Weaver jumped out of the gate looking like an all-star.  Sure, he tailed off toward the end of the year, but his rise in innings could certainly account for a wear and tear that would make any pitcher tire out.  What did he do with those 200+ innings?  Only throw 4 complete games and 2 shut-outs (not too far off the key Cy Young peripherals that most critics look at when voting).  He also lowered his BAA nicely, and gave us his highest strikeout total to date while lowering his WHIP for the third straight year.  If he can lower his BB/9 this year, I say he breaks out in a big way and the Angels maintain their playoff bound ways behind this arm.

Jorge De La Rosa  (COL) – 2009 :  185.0 IN, 16 W, 4.38 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 193 K

Everyone is talking about Ubaldo Jiminez, and for the right reasons.  However, people seem to be forgetting about Mr. De La Rosa and his rise to prominence.  Now, De La Rosa has had the career of a journey man, playing for 3 teams in 5 years.  If you look closely, his ability to keep the ball in the park in Colorado has managed to help him increase his K/BB ratio, lower his BAA, and throw more innings and ultimately win more games.  With a 9 K/9 arm, watch him bolster Colorado’s young rotation and keep them in contention for years to come.

Gavin Floyd  (CWS) – 2009 :  193.0 IN, 11 W, 4.06 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 163 K

Here’s a guy who was said to possess such a wicked 12-6-er, that his success in the majors was a matter of “when”, not “if”.  Floyd has seemed to find a nice home on the south side of Chicago.  In his 3 years with the White Sox, Floyd has lowered his HR/9 all the way under 1, and with that has seen increased success.  In a park where the longball can kill a pitcher, this shows an ability to adapt his game and the ability to bring it to another level.  In the last two years, he has seen his K/9 numbers rise while decreasing his BB/9.  All while preventing the killer home runs.  I say this is the year the once hailed arm rises to prominence in the AL Central.

Jon Lester  (BOS) – 2009 :  203.3 IN, 15 W, 3.41 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 225 K

Here’s another guy we’ve been hearing about for years as the Sox’s ace in the making.  Sure Clay Bucholtz has taken over that title as Lester has ensconced himself in the rotation with an arm that can flat out put people away.  We have watched his K/9 rise and rise and rise until it finally exploded last year with almost 10 K’s per 9.  If he can maintain that, he will continue to see success and could even possibly put himself in line to win 18-19 games with the defense Epstein has put behind his hurlers.

Tim Lincecum  (SF) – 2009 :  225.1 IN, 15 W, 2.48 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 261

Could it be possible that this kid gets better?  Well, he is entering his third full season and has logged the necessary 500-600 innings.  It’s what he has done with those innings that makes him a break out pitcher.  He gave up less hits per innings pitched than the year prior, lowered his already ridiculous HR/9 rate and gave up less walks as well.  He’s seen his K/9 go up and up and I say it continues to go up.  He brought his BAA down to almost below .200—and for a guy that throws 7-8 innings per start – that is just ridiculous consistency and improvement.  This is the year he gets even better and, while not a surprise, breaks into the super elite territory that was once manned by the Johan Santanas of the world.