Mark DeRosa  (3B/OF – SF) –  Mark DeRosa is still dealing with some soreness in his wrist.  He had surgery on it in the off-season and it has still not fully recovered.  This is very bad news for his fantasy value, which had already taken a big hit for two reasons.  Firstly, in 2009 his OBP dropped 60 points from his previous two seasons.  His strikeout rate took a huge jump, and he only gained 2 home runs from his 2008 total.  Secondly, he moved to the pitcher-friendly AT&T park (so him matching his 23 HR total from 2009 is far from likely).  He wasn’t a great pick before the news that his wrist is not healed.  Now, he is a terrible pick.

Nick Johnson  (1B – NYY) –  For those of you timing how long it would take for Nick Johnson to get dinged up, you may stop your stopwatches.  He has a sore back.  Normally, I would not even report something so innocuous as a sore back in spring training.  However, in the case of Nick “Fragile” Johnson, it is just an indication that it is the same old story with the breakable on-base machine.  Draft him hoping for 350 ABs, not 500.

Fernando Rodney  (RP – LAA) –  It looks as though Fernando Rodney will begin throwing soon.  One can assume that Brian Fuentes is now nervous.  Although Rodney had a 4.40 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP, he blew only one save in 2009.  Fuentes’ ratios were not much better in 2009, and he blew more saves.  If Rodney is significantly behind in his spring training, the result could be a longer leash for Fuentes.  However, I am guessing that leash runs out early this year.

Allen Craig  (1B/3B/OF – STL) -  This is a very interesting situation that I will track this spring.  By no means is Craig assured a roster spot this season.  It reminds me of back in the day when Tony LaRussa swore up and down that Albert Pujols was not going to break camp with the team.  Obviously he did and hasn’t looked back.  With the injury issues to Brendan Ryan, and presence of only stopgap options behind him, Craig could get a look if he performs well this spring.  Craig has played first base, third base, and the outfield.  With such versatility, it would not surprise me at all if he found a roster spot.  He was the organization’s player of the year in 2009, putting up stats that Brendan Ryan can only dream of.  He is also currently dealing with a minor quad injury, but is due to be back soon.  Track this closely, there is some sleeper potential here.

Joel Piniero  (SP – LAA) –  Not only do I not believe that Piniero is a fantasy asset, I think that he is very likely to waste a large amount of your bid money if you buy him in your 2010 fantasy baseball auction.  Sure, he threw a career high 214 innings, had a 3.77 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP.  However if you look a little closer, you will see that his secondary numbers paint a less optimistic picture of his “breakout” season.  His K/9 rate dropped to a career low 4.42.  While his BAA was not terrible at .265 (which is decent, not great) he still let up more hits than innings pitched.  If it were not for his career best BB/9 rate (which was WAY beyond his career norms, about half what it had been the previous two seasons), his WHIP could have done some damage to fantasy teams.  So sure, if he can hold that walk rate down, his ratios may not be terrible.  However, paying for a pitcher that is moving from the National to the American League after a career season is exactly the way that a fantasy GM can get burned and waste either bid money or a too high a pick in a fantasy baseball draft.  Oh yeah, he struggled his first start this spring.

Jason Heyward  (OF – ATL) –  Heyward is impressing early this spring with his plate discipline and defense.  Matt Diaz is still a threat to a full season worth of ABs, but the ceiling is just so much higher for the younger Heyward.  He is very young, and could struggle at times, however he is a real talent that you should track closely this spring.  If he breaks camp with a starting job, he could be a nice fantasy baseball sleeper for 2010.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia  (C – TEX) –  There is an open competition going on for the starting catcher role on the Rangers.  Salty and Taylor Teagarden are neck and neck.  While this competition would ideally result in finding which one should start this season, more likely it will result in finding which one will get the greater end of a platoon.  Salty did manager to have a good game Thursday, going 2-3 with a 3-run bomb.  However, that is not going to seal the deal.  An maintained offensive explosion from one of them could tip the balance.  If you have to chose between one or the other, go with Salty until you have Teagarden does something special.

Q:  Is Francisco Liriano’s good off-season performance going to continue against big league hitters?

Francisco Liriano is sure to be on many 2010 fantasy baseball sleeper lists.  His phenomenal potential which he displayed in 2006 is not going to just be forgotten.  Though his numbers in 2009 were awful, smart and attentive GMs will know that he has been throwing very well this off-season.  Reportedly hitting 95 mph, he posted a .186 BAA with a 1.54 ERA and .86 WHIP in the Dominican Winter League.  Now, we have to be aware that Liriano’s winter ball numbers are an extremely small sample size (11.7 IN).  Every pitcher goes through stretches where they seem to be untouchable, and certainly 12 innings is not enough to decide that Liriano is back to form.  However, if he comes into spring training and starts putting up similar ratios against tougher competition, he could be a gem for those of us that have paid close enough attention.

Q:  Is Brandon Wood ready to hit at the major league level?

I have been waiting for Brandon Wood to get a legitimate shot at a starting job for several seasons now.  It is very likely that you have been too.  However, you have to be aware that when he popped onto our radars, the picture we had in our heads was of a 40+ home run hitting shortstop.  Now that he will be playing third base, part of that value is gone.  Also, his K/BB rate has seen little progress in his limited major league ABs.  With the starting job all but handed to him for 2010, this spring should give us a little view of what could be coming.  If he continues to strike out much more than walk, I will greatly reduce the price I am willing to pay.  If he makes some progress, I would bump him up on my sleeper list.

Q:  Was David Ortiz’ power outage an aberration or the beginnings of a decline?

When talking purely about power, spring training is not really something for which we are going to get a definitive answer.  After all, many of the ABs that David Ortiz will receive this spring will be against pitchers that are not ready to face major league hitters.  A couple of 85 mph fastballs at the wrong time could result in home runs that taint the sample we get to see from a power hitter.  Supposedly, Ortiz has been pulling the ball more in recent seasons, and an opposite field approach could help his numbers.  With a failed PED test, there is reason to believe that hitting the ball to left field is not the real reason his power numbers have dropped.

Q:  Will Grady Sizemore return to put up numbers close to his past 30-30 performance?

With two separate surgeries in 2009, I am willing to chalk Grady Sizemore’s poor numbers up to injury.  Yet, a smart fantasy GM will have to accept that the risk of injury is increased.  Also, it is very possible that there could be some residual decline due to last year’s problems.  A elbow injury could continue to affect his power, and a groin injury could keep him from running as much.  This is in addition to the fact that the Indians are offensively terrible.  A reduction in the number of runs he will score should be assumed.  With Sizemore moving to the second slot in the batting order, his RBI total may improve, but that is far from assured.  He is young enough to return to elite status, but fantasy GMs should be a little skeptical until they see him playing without restriction.

Q:  How will Matt LaPorta find the ABs he needs to break-out in 2010?

The addition of Russell Branyan has put a haze around the role of one of 2010’s biggest fantasy baseball sleepers.  When Branyan first signed, I along with most baseball people assumed that he would be filling a part time or DH role.  However, Manny Acta said that Branyan has the inside track on the starting first base job.  Most of us assumed that Matt LaPorta would get the shot that we have been waiting for him to get.  Now it appears as though he will either have to win a job in the outfield (likely at the expense of Michael Brantley) or have Branyan stumble early to get a full season of ABs.  Personally, I am skeptical that Branyan can stay both healthy and effective for long stretches of time, so LaPorta should get his shot.

Q:  What the heck is the Royals starting lineup going to look like?

This is not an easy question, as their roster contains a ton of players that have been starters in the past, and also many players that have the potential to be better than those starters.  Players such as Rick Ankiel, Alberto Callaspo, Yuniesky Betancourt, and David Dejesus have held starting jobs before.  They had better produce, however, because the off-season has seen the addition of Josh Fields and Chris Getz.  That, combined with the return of Mike Aviles, could drastically change that starting lineup.  Another large question is how much faith they have in Alex Gordon.  With Fields able to play both third base and the outfield (not that his defense is very good at either position), there are not many players other than Billy Butler that should feel their job is safe.

Q:  Is Alfonso Soriano’s knee healthy?

You should get the visions of a return to 40-40 form out of your head right now (even 30-30 is just ridiculous).  With the injuries Alfonso Soriano has suffered, it is unclear how much of the decline in his numbers is due to those ailments and how much is due to an eroding skill set.  Having a bad knee certainly reduces his stolen base potential, and it is not hard to imagine that it has drained part of his power as well.  Reports out of Cubs camp are that his knee is not yet 100%, but it is better than it was last season.  The question is how much better, and will he be able to make a rebound in 2010?  Spring training could give us a little insight into how much he will be worth (or should be discounted) in 2010 fantasy baseball auctions and drafts.  At the least we should see how healthy he really is.

Q:  Who will win the starting center-field job for the Reds?

I briefly covered this situation in the latest Quick Fix article.  While no one will deny that Chris Dickerson has the tools to develop into a quality major league hitter, Drew Stubbs greatly outperformed him when given the chance in 2009.  Dusty Baker has come forward and said that Stubbs deserves to play because of that performance.  If Dickerson can prove that he has rediscovered the power that left him last year, he could push the issue.  However, at this point it seems that Stubbs is the frontrunner.

Q:  Will Jay Bruce learn to hit lefties?

The reality is that the spring will probably not give us enough information to answer this question, but you should be aware that this is the major stumbling block Jay Bruce has met with in his young career.  We all know that he has massive power potential in his bat, but that alone is not enough to justify the large price which he is sure to command.  After hitting .190 against lefties in 2008 and .210 in 2009, he still has work to do in order to keep his overall BA from hurting fantasy teams.  That said, he proved that he can hit in the minor leagues, and is still young enough to have those skills translate into major league ability.

Ben Sheets  (SP – OAK) –  Sheets is telling anyone that will listen that he is 100% healthy this season.  While this is normal talk for an injury prone player like Sheets, this is also the type of player that can help you win the league.  He has no stats from 2009 for your competition to see, so he could fly right under their radar.  Even if there are a few members of your league that are watching him this spring, they will likely be hesitant to bid more than a few dollars in order to land him.  Lemme give you another name that was very similar to Sheets’s situation in 2009… Chris Carpenter.  That worked out pretty well for those GMs that took the gamble on him.  If Sheet’s velocity is where it should be late in the spring, I will gamble on him for the right price.

Josh Hamilton  (OF – TEX) –  Shoulder problems last year, and already a shoulder contusion this spring.  For the most part, his story makes you want to root for him.  His career year in 2008 was awesome, but has to be put in context.  That was two years ago, after many years of his talent being wasted.  He is not some 22 year old superstar.  He is 29 years old, and an injury risk.  Root for him, but don’t pay as though he is going to be a core member of your keeper league for years.

Octavio Dotel  (RP – PIT) –  He is the favorite to start the season closing games for the Pirates, so he has to be on your radar.  Here is the skinny.  He has met with some success throughout his career, and has put up the occasional great season.  Yet he has not been able to hold down the closer’s role for long stretches whether due to injury or ineffectiveness.  Now 36 years old, this could easily be his last chance to hold a role this significant (and perhaps extend his career a couple of years).  His ERA in 2009 was great, but his K/9 rate dropped from 12.86 down to 10.83 (which is still by all means respectable), and his BB/9 rate went up from 3.9 to 5.2.  The lack of other good options should give him a nice long leash, but don’t be surprised if that leash eventually runs out.  Also note that he is dealing with some side soreness, which is not the start he was looking for.

Stephen Strasburg (SP – WAS) –  If you watch as much ESPN as I do, you have probably heard the story on this kid.  He is supposedly awesome, and Pudge Rodrigeuz recently threw his two cents in about Strasburg to the media.  When asked if Strasburg has stuff similar to Justin Verlander, he said that Nolan Ryan was a closer comparison.  That type of comment obviously has to be taken with a grain of salt, but it is exactly the type of thing that make fantasy baseball GMs drool about a player, and thus overpay for him.  The story I like even better is how Strasburg’s nickname is evolving.  Supposedly they are calling him “Jesus”, because when hitters make their out against him they walk away muttering, “Jesus!”.  Be careful reaching for Strasburg in your fantasy baseball draft or auction.  While the Nationals do need starters pretty badly, there is just no telling how much (or little) time in the majors he will get.

Mike Napoli  (C – LAA) –  Mike Napoli may get it.  He is working on his defense, apparently switching to a bigger glove.  Napoli has tremendous power, and has managed to keep him batting average high enough not to hurt fantasy teams.  His lack of ABs over the last three years is the only reason he is not considered among the elite catchers.  If his defense can improve to the point where Mike Scioscia can trust him for 120-130 games, he could be one of the big fantasy baseball breakouts of 2010.  Of course, a bigger glove is not going to help him call a better game for his pitchers.  It remains to be seen if it is an issue of his pitch calling or actually catching the ball that is the major part of the problem.

Francisco Liriano  (SP – MIN) –  Early reports are good, as was his stint in the Dominican League over the winter.  He says he feels like he is getting back into his rookie year form.  While I am not willing to pay as though that is certain, I could easily believe that he can make enough comeback to make a modest bid worth while.  Since his 2009 numbers were not very good, he is similar to Ben Sheets in that his profile should be fairly low.

Michael Brantley  (OF – CLE) –  My pick for A.L. ROY’s chances to actually win the award took a big hit yesterday when Russell Branyan was said to be the front runner for the starting first base job.  Such a move would put 2010 fantasy baseball sleeper Matt LaPorta into the outfield, and put uber-sleeper Brantley in AAA.  It remains to be seen if Branyan can stay effective and healthy at the same time, so don’t give up on Brantley quite yet.  He now he needs either LaPorta or Branyan to fail in order to get the ABs he needs.  He has the ability to step up should the opportunity to win a job present itself.

Chone Figgins  (3B? – SEA) –  I have been doing a lot of stat trivia on Twitter lately, and I keep coming across Figgins’ name.  He had a great year last season.  He was the only player in the majors that walked at least 100 times and stole over 20 bases in 2009.  His OBP was almost .400, and he stole over 30 bases for the 6th straight season.  However, the reason that I am writing about him today is that the Mariners are considering moving him to second base.  An excellent defender at third, I would be surprised if this actually happened.  Yet his 2010 fantasy baseball value would take a huge jump should they make this move official.

Carlos Quentin  (OF – CWS) –  The knock on Quentin for a long time has been the fact that he is injury prone.  After his breakout season in 2008, he showed why fantasy baseball owners hesitate to pay full price for that type of player.  Losing much of the 2009 season to wrist and heel injuries, Quentin saw his numbers drop.  However, if you are willing to gamble that he will stay healthy in 2010, his fantasy baseball value should make a large recovery.  His power remained intact, holding a 16.7 AB/HR rate in 2009.  This is only 3 ABs per home run fewer than in 2008.  Even going back to his minor league career, he has been a strong OBP player with an excellent K/BB ratio.  With the skills he brings to the table, it is only the chance of more injury that keeps his price low.  2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections:  .282 BA, 34 HR, 102 RBI, 100 R, 4 SBs, 505 ABs

Grady Sizemore  (OF – CLE) –  Grady Sizemore was my #1 ranked fantasy baseball outfielder going into the 2009 season.  That is not too hard to believe after he put up a 30-30 season in 2008.  However, the fact that the Indians are pathetic and injuries he suffered reduced that power/speed combo to a 18-13 line.  Now join me for this next part….. YIPEEEE!!!!  Grady Sizemore’s value as not been lower in years, and in all likelyhood will not be this low for years more to come.  In my keeper leagues, he has been untouchable…. until now.  When his names comes up in your fantasy baseball auction, call out, “multiple surgeries”, and then bid $1 more.  Is there risk the injury resurfaces?  Sure.  Is 30-30 upside worth that risk?  Yes, especially for those of you in fantasy baseball keeper leagues.  Sizemore is only 28 this year, and cannot be written off after one sub-par season.  2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections: .273 BA, 25 HR, 92 RBI, 90 R, 28 SB, 559 AB.

Troy Glaus  (3B/1B – ATL) –  Remember him?  I’m not sure if Glaus qualifies as a fantasy baseball sleeper since most everyone knows who he is.  However, he is definitely a candidate for a major rebound after only managing 29 ABs in the 2009 season.  Now make sure you read that correctly.  A rebound, not a rebirth.  You can expect that the power will return now that his shoulder is healthy.  You can also expect his batting average to still remain a liability to your team.   He is slated to be a starter, however, since his numbers were non-existant in 2009, he is just the type of player that you can slip by your competition very late or very cheap.  Even though he has been less of an asset than he was early in his career, his K/BB ratio is right where it has been for years.  Now a first baseman, the risk of injury is (slightly) lower, but keep in mind it is still there.  Do not pay as though he is going to hit the same 28 HRs he did in 2008, but don’t kid yourself.  If he is healthy, he has value.  2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections:  .252 BA, 22 HR, 88 RBI, 79 R, 3 SB, 485 AB.

Aramis Ramirez  (3B – CHC) –  Ranked near the top of third base cheat sheets for years, Aramis Ramirez was held to just 306 ABs in 2009, he should be cheaper than he has been since 2002.  Yet when you look at his numbers on a per at-bat basis, his home run rate and run production was right where it should be.  Top that off with his highest batting average since 2004, and you aren’t going to get much better numbers from a half-season.  The progress he has made in his K/BB ratio is noticeable, and his OBP has risen for three straight seasons.  Take the discount that will come this year and expect a return to his former level. 2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections:  .301 BA, 29 HR, 106 RBI, 99 R, 1 SB, 528 AB.

Jake Peavy  (SP – CWS) –  Jake Peavy has been ranked among the elite starting pitchers since his breakout season in 2004.  An ankle injury derailed his 2009 campaign.  Read that again…. “an ankle injury”.  This is not a case where surgery was done to fix an elbow or shoulder, which means that Peavy’s arm is just fine.  Perhaps you competition will only see the reduced innings in 2009 and not bother to check what Peavy was suffering from.  Pile on top of that the change from the National League to the American, and his change to a pitcher-friendly ballpark to one that favors hitters, and his price could drop even further.  If this proves to be the case during your draft, you will most likely be able to steal him for less or later than he has gone for years.  I would agree with critics that Peavy’s ERA will likely take a hit with the change of league and ballpark, however his BAA has remained consistently excellent throughout his career, and his WHIP hasn’t been above 1.23 since 2003, so the increase will likely be small.  Whatever value he loses due to the rise in ERA will likely be offset by the increased number of wins he will receive now that he is off of the lowly Padres.  2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections:  17 W, 3.25 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 185 K, 210 IN

Matt Garza  (SP – TB) –  I like seeing his K/9 rate jump over 2 Ks to 8.38 in 2009.  His BAA also dropped to .236.  If he can shake the increase in his BB/9 rate, Garza could be one of the nicer sleepers for a breakout season in 2010.  The best part?  The fact that Garza won only 8 games in 2009 may keep the price low enough to make him a bargain.

Chien-Ming Wang  (SP – NYY) –  The fact that he won 19 games two straight years hides how mediocre an option Wang is for your fantasy team.  Plenty of fantasy GMs (and at least one MLB GM) will look right past the other numbers and focus on that wins total.  They will ignore the injuries that have held him to just 137 innings pitched over the last two seasons, they will ignore the incredibly poor K/9 rate he posts even in his healthy seasons (3.14 – 2006, 4.70 – 2007).  They will gloss over the fact that his WHIP in those healthy seasons was 1.31 and 1.29 respectively.  So, we have an injury prone pitcher who is a little too hittable, a little too wild, with a notable lack of dominance on the mound.  Is he an upgrade for the Nationals?  Sure, since their rotation was in such awful shape.  However the reality is that the fact he won 19 games for the Yankees twice is the only reason he is even on most fantasy GMs radar.  Do yourself a favor.  Cover his wins total up, and look at the rest of his numbers.  Now, what would you pay for THAT player?

Jair Jurrjens  (SP – ATL) –  An MRI recently showed that Jurrjens had no structural damage to his shoulder.  That is GREAT!  Jurrjens was very consistent in 2009, posting a sub 3.0 ERA in both the first and second half of the season.  He held batters to a .235 BA, and saw an increase in his K/9 rate over the second half of the season.  With a little more control, Jurrjens is a potential breakout starter in 2010.  This may be the last season you can get Jurrjens at a medium price.

Brandon Inge  (3B – DET) –  I am not a believer in Inge’s fantasy baseball value.  His batting average is routinely suspect, his power is mediocre at best, and seldom does he put together success with both in the same season.  His knees may be healthy, but coming off of a season where his HR production is way up, you know his price will be way up too.  When the bidding comes up on him, keep his .186 second half batting average in mind and stay away.

Carlos Zambrano  (SP – CHC) –  He has supposedly lost weight this off-season.  Now, that is normally just a side-note for a player.  However, for a player like Zambrano who’s biggest weakness is a lack of focus, this could be a turning point.  The perennial under-acheiver may finally be taking the job seriously, and may have realized the amount of commitment that is necessary for success at an elite level.  Bump his value up a bit if he early spring reports have him throwing well.

Jose Reyes  (SS – NYM) –  Early reports are that Reyes’ repaired hamstring is coming along nicely.  That doesn’t mean a damn thing, and you should know that.  His primary fantasy value is his legs.  A muscle in his leg was torn.  That means that this will be a concern every single day he plays for the season.  Any stolen base attempt could result in re-injuring it, costing him (potentially) the entire season.  Does he have the potential to be give your fantasy team first-round type production?  Sure.  Is it worth paying as if that production is assured?  No.  There are plenty of places to get speed, you don’t need to hop on the highest risk/reward bandwagon in 2010.

Brandon Lyon  (RP – HOU) –  Lyon is going to be behind other pitchers to start spring training due to a cyst in his shoulder that he had drained.  Uh oh.  His job security is among the lowest among closers in the league, and this is not the way to change that for the better.  He has limited success in his track record and Matt Lindstrom nipping at his heels.  While the Astros paid for him as though he was a good bet for their 9th inning duties, you should not.

Stephen Strasburg  (SP – WAS) –  The “phenom” is supposedly completely healthy after knee issues.  Strasburg also supposedly impressed during a brief throwing session.  He is one of the high upside starting pitchers for 2010.  He has also proven nothing at all at the big league level.  There is a learning curve at the big league level, especially when talking about pitchers.  Most of these phenoms do not have the success which the experts predict for years after reaching the show (if ever), and you should keep that in mind when bidding for him in 2010 fantasy baseball drafts or auctions.  Also keep in mind that David Price was last season’s Strasburg, and that didn’t work out the way his owners would have liked.

Daisuke Matsuzaka  (SP – BOS) –  Dice-K reported a little tightness in his back.  He may start spring training behind other pitchers.  This is more of a “watch” situation.  If he is throwing well in late in the spring, leave your sheets unchanged.  2009 was almost a lost season for Dice-K, as he apparently had a spring training injury that was never taken care of, affecting him all season.  He could be a nice rebound candidate for 2010.

Recent Career

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There is a very large sample size to look at for Johnny Damon.  Of course, this is also another way of saying that he is getting old.  He has had at least 472 ABs in every season since 1996, so there can be no denying that he is durable.  That is probably the best thing that I can say about him.  If you draft him (and he has found a starting job somewhere) he will get you those 500 ABs that you must have.  For years Damon has been a nice blend of power and speed, though he has rarely been able to put all the pieces together in the same season.  He has gone 20-20 only once in his career.  In fact, he has hit 20 or more home runs only in only 3 seasons.  Bottom line, when you have drafted Damon over the last decade, you felt safe that you would receive 15ish HRs, with 25ish SBs, 100 runs, and a batting average that would help your fantasy team.

Secondary Numbers

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Damon has seen a steady increase in his BB rate over the last many seasons.  From 2001-2008, his BB rate has increased from 8.5% to the  10.5% range.  This number reached a career high in 2009 when he posted a BB rate of 11.3%.  Of all the secondary numbers, this is the only one that I can find which says that he is getting better.  Rest assured, I am about to show you why this is a very minor number when put in context.  His K rate has also been in a steady rise.  Whereas in Boston he was able to keep that rate around 11%, that number immediately jumped to 14.3% when moving to New York, and reached a career high in 2009 at 17.8%.  The result has been a complete negation of the BB increase in his BB/K ratio.  In his Boston days that numbers was ABOVE .90 in three out of four seasons.  Since moving to New York, it has been BELOW .80 in three out of four seasons.  So while his BB rate increased, his K rate has increased significantly more.

After years of posting home run totals in the 10-20 range, Damon muscled up for 24 HR in 2009.  His ISO (isolated power) jumped to a career high of .207.  This number when compared to the large sample size of his career looks to be an outlier.  He has only one other season with an ISO over .172 (2006).  This is also confirmed by looking at Damon’s fly-ball rate which jumped over 8% in 2009.

More bad news.  His contact rates are down.  Since 2002, Damon has not recorded a lower contact rate than he did in 2009.  It has fallen 3.5% since posting an 88.0% rate in 2005.  He also swung at a career high percentage of balls outside of the strike zone in 2009 (his contact rate on those pitches was NOT a career high).  It is worth noting that his SBs in 2009 dropped to less than half what they had been in the previous three seasons.  Take that in context, however, as the power surge for Damon (as well as for the Yankees in general) may have put the red light on Damon.  Also, he was not caught stealing at all last year.  So this decrease could be a result of the team’s situation rather than a loss of speed on Damon’s part.

Fantasy Implications

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So what does this all mean to a fantasy GM?  Well, firstly it means that you should follow the lead of MLB GMs and be skeptical of Damon’s production for the 2010 fantasy baseball season.  His name makes him high profile, and there will definitely be GMs in your league that will expect the power to continue and the SBs to return.  The latest rumors have Damon close to signing with either the Tigers or the Braves.  Both of those teams play in ballparks that are significantly less friendly to hitters, so the power is likely to decline even more than if he stayed in New York.  Both of those teams have less potent offenses, so the runs scored and RBI are likely to decline.  I would expect the SBs to increase to their former levels (25-30 SBs) due to both of those facts.  However, if you were hoping to protect Damon and ride him for a 20-20 season, you are very likely to be disappointed.  The numbers point to a guy that is trying to add power to make up for declining secondary numbers that make him a less valuable player to a team (more MLB than fantasy-wise).  It definitely does not help that his defense is suspect, and his arm is almost non-exsitant.  Watch where he lands, and if he has a full time job locked up rate him as a serviceable OF that will play all season long.  That is a valuable commodity.  Just don’t pay for him as though he is a power/speed threat playing for the most powerful offense in the American League.  He just isn’t that player.  Pay no more than $16 in your auction.  2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections:  .288 BA, 14 HR, 66 RBI, 89 R, 26 SB in 569 AB.

Michael Brantley  (OF – CLE) –  Brantley has recently been announced as the frontrunner for the Indians left field starting job.  There is good reason for this, and for you to know his name when your fantasy baseball draft or auction rolls around.  When your competition looks at their fantasy baseball magazines (most of them waiting until the week before the draft to do so), they are going to see a snapshot of his production that does not match up with his skills.  In 2009 Brantley recorded 112 ABs with no power at all, 4 SBs, a .313 batting average, and 19 Ks compared to 8 BBs.  The only number in this line that actually can be expected to continue is the batting average.  That K rate (17.0%) is substantially higher than what he consistently produced in the minors, and the BB/9 rate (6.6%) is significantly lower.  In the minors, Brantley’s worst BB rate was 10.4% and ranged up to 13.0%.  The K rate he produced in the minors was never higher than 13.4% in 2007, and was as low as 6.4% in 2008.  In his entire minor league career, he never recorded an OBP that was lower than .350 in any stop.

It is natural, in fact it is common, for minor leaguers that get the call to the bigs to struggle in their first shot at the best pitchers in the world.  However, Brantley has shown that he understands the strike zone, and even in his short big league stint put up a 91.4% contact rate.  These stats are very encouraging.  While he will not hit for power, his speed is for real as shown by his 46 SBs in AAA during the 2009 season.  His success rate was equally impressive as he was only caught stealing 5 times.  If he hits well this spring and secures that starting job, look for him to put up speed numbers that can help your team well beyond the cost that it will take to land him in your draft.

Jason Heyward  (OF – ATL) –  Here is a name that the casual fantasy baseball GM may miss entirely.  With no major league stats to look at, it takes an informed GM to know that Heyward is one of the best minor league prospects in the game.  Bobby Cox recently stated that Heyward could break camp with the big club, and this would be consistent with his fast rise through the minor league system.  In 2008, Heyward started the season in A-ball with 189 ABs where he hit 11 HRs and 15 SBs, with a .323 BA, a .388 OBP, and a .66 BB/K rate in 449 ABs.  In 2009 he started the season in A+ ball, where his excellent production continued, posting a line of 10 HR and 4 SBs, with a .296 BA, a .360 OBP, and a BB/K rate of .70 in 189 ABs.  After that he was promoted to the AA level, and he did not slow down at all.  In 162 ABs at that level, the power continued with 7 HRs, the speed continued with 5 SBs, the average continued at .352, and his improvement to his BB/K rate took a jump up to 1.47 in 162 ABs.

All of these signs show a player that understands the strike zone, has the power to contribute at the major league level, and can steal a base or two in the process.  As a low-profile player with no major league stats to look at, he could be cheap enough to be the fantasy baseball sleeper that every team is looking for.  Keep track of this situation in the spring, as Heyward only has to beat out Matt Diaz to win a significant amount of playing time in 2010.  Since Diaz tends to struggle versus right-handed pitching, Heyward forcing his way into the picture is a good gamble.  On a side note, this kid is huge at 6′4″ and could develop significantly more power going forward.

Everth Cabrera  (SS – SD) –  This sleeper is a little higher-profile than the first two since he recorded 377 ABs with the Padres in 2009.  However, the stat line that he produced in that time was below what Cabrera is capable of, and some of the numbers he posted could even scare away some GMs.  Needless to say, any sleeper at shortstop is worthy of your attention and consideration.  Cabrera does have a few flaws in his game.  His K rate is too high, and his BB rate is too low.  Yet the potential is there for Cabrera to completely blow away the numbers he posted in 2009.

Firstly, the starting job is his.  There is no question that barring injury Cabrera will be a full-time starter in 2010.  Secondly, the numbers that he posted in his short minor league career point to abilities that he did not show in 2009.  While other GMs are focused on his .255 BA in 2009, you should focus on the fact that he had only 50 ABs above A-Ball before being called up to the big leagues.  In his last “full” season in the minors (Rockies-A), Cabrera’s BB/9 rate was actually lower than it was in the big leagues, and while his K rate was higher, it was in the same ballpark as his stint in the bigs.  It is also worthy of note that while that .255 BA from 2009 was not desirable, his OBP was .342 which is very respectable (also, his BABIP during his big league ABs was the lower than any stint in his minor league career).

While other GMs focus on the fact that Cabrera only stole 25 bases while being caught 8 times in 2009, you should focus on the fact that Cabrera stole 73 bases in the minors during the 2008 season and was caught only 16 times.  He has speed to burn.  Oh, and did I mention that this kid is only 23 years old?  Sure, his supporting cast and ballpark are working against his power, RBI, and runs scored.  Yet when talking about a speedster, you are looking for help in the SB and BA category, both of which Cabrera could offer your team for a fraction of the price that a Ryan Theriot or Asdrubal Cabrera will cost.  Finding a sleeper in the outfield is great, as Brantley and Heyward could be.  However, finding a sleeper at a thinner position such as shortstop is what can win you a league.  Follow Everth’s progress this spring, and hope that he doesn’t steal so many bases that his low-profile status is blown.

Minor League Career

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Gonzalez has shown decent power at every stop along his minor league career, but it is only recently that he has shown the ability to take the free pass.  Also, while Gonzalez does have speed, his success rate in the minors leaves something to be desired.  In his first two major stints in the minors (2006- DBacks A+, 2007 DBacks AA) his BB/K rate was miserable at .29 and .31, respectively.  In each season, the sample size of at-bats was over 400.  To be fair, his batting average during these two seasons was not an issue, as he hit .300 and then .286.  Near the end of the 2007 season, Gonzalez was traded to the Athletics, and spend a short amount of time (10 games) playing for their AAA team.  It was at this point that something changed in his game.

Some good coach in their organization must have preached the value of taking a walk, because in that ten game stretch his BB/K rate was 1.0.  The next season playing for that same team, he logged 173 ABs, and while his walk rate was not as high as 1.0, he did manage to improve it from his former .30ish level to .46.  Clearly, this excited the A’s and they gave him a nice long cuppa coffee in 2008.  Overwhelmed in his first big league opportunity, his BB/K rate hit a new low over his 302 ABs (.16).  Another trade later, and Gonzalez found himself in Colorado’s AAA affiliate.  He continued his improvement to post a .69 BB/K rate in 223 ABs, and that was all the Rockies needed to see.  He was promoted to the show, and this time found his stroke after just a short period.

2009

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It is easy to just look at the scoring categories and see that Gonzalez showed both power and speed with a good batting average.  Based on that alone, plenty of fantasy baseball GMs will pay huge dollars for the potential of further progress.  However, that is actually not where the story is.  If we continue looking at the secondary stats, we find that Gonzalez could well be on his way to being WORTH all those dollars that are going to be spent on him.

In that first month of 2009 especially, things looked bleak.  He was called up in June, and in that month he recorded a .23 BB/K.  In other words, he once again reverted to his old bad habits when faced with better pitching.  Someone must have sat him down and had a talk, because in July that rate rose back up to .67.  There is another number that I find encouraging for Gonzalez.  His percentage of balls swung at outside the strike-zone went down 2% from his 2008 major league campaign to that in 2009.  His contact rate went up 3%, and top that off with a 6% increase in his line-drive rate.  These are all signs that real progress being made by a young talent that is coming into his own.  The results are clear.  In the second half of the season, Gonzalez posted a .320 batting average with an OPS of .992.

Warning Signs

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The warnings signs here are primarily that when struggling Gonzalez tends to revert back to his free-swinging ways.  If you do chose to invest in this talent, keep a close watch on his BB/K rate.  If it begins to sink, it is time to start shopping him.  I have also read (and obviously have no personal knowledge about) that his work ethic and attitude have drawn criticism.  Perhaps the fact that listening to his coaches with regard to being selective at the plate has proven to work, will improve that.  Personally, I feel that since he is going to start regardless of attitude, that it is irrelevant.  I mean, Gary Sheffield and Barry Bonds were notorious dicks, and they were fantasy studs for years.

Fantasy Implications

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The kid is only 25 this season, and could easily take the next step in 2010.  It appears as though the plate discipline that he was lacking is coming around, and that could lead to the 5-tool player that all fantasy GMs want.  With a full-time job assured in 2010, he will get a full season to prove himself.  I expect him to take another step forward.  The Rockies like to run, so the speed should be an asset, and the power he showed in the second half of the season is real.  Since his numbers were good, but not eye-popping, it is possible that he could go in snake drafts after Adam Jones, but given the choice between the two, Gonzalez would be my choice.  I would place his top fantasy baseball auction value at $19, and expect a season of .278, 20 HR, 72 RBI, 82 R, 19 SB, 520 ABs.

Early Career

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It may seem like Ramirez has been around forever.  In fact, for the majority of GMs, Ramirez will have been among the top of the third base rankings the entire time they have been playing fantasy baseball.  However, he will turn just 32 in the 2010 season.  After three seasons of part time play for the Pirates in 1998-2000, Aramis hit the big time in 2001 posting a .300-34-112 line in 603 ABs.  While he did take a step backward in 2002 when he hit only 18 HR in 522 ABs with a .234 BA, good fortune smiled on him when he was traded to the Chicago Cubs in the 2003 season.

After leaving Pittsburgh for a team that actually takes baseball seriously, Ramirez’ career took off for real.  From 2004-2008 Ramirez did not hit under .288, nor did he hit under 26 home runs for any single season.  In fact, in the first three full seasons playing for the Cubbies, he hit over 30 HRs in each year, setting a new career high twice during that span.  If you take a look at his power while adjusting for ABs, you will find that Aramis has been fairly consistent throughout his career.

Skeptics will point to the fact that his AB/HR rate dropped from 2005-2008, but the reality of the situation is that his rate still places him among the best at the third base position.  With good power, a batting average that is well above average, and over 100 RBI in 6 out of 8 of those seasons, Aramis’ high draft position was well deserved.  Furthermore, in 2001-2008 (the time since he became a full time player barring 2009), note that he stayed fairly healthy, logging only one season with under 500 ABs.

Certain websites I have read refer to the fact that he has played in over 150 games in only 3 seasons, but the fact is that in only one season has he lost enough time to decrease his value in a significant fashion.  His BB/9 Rate has gotten better over his career, and his K/9 rate has ticked up only slightly.  Overall, this track record is one of a hitter that has good plate discipline, good power, good health, and the ability to put up numbers (which while not spectacular) can greatly help your fantasy baseball team.

2009

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In 2009, Aramis Ramirez met with his first serious loss of playing time due to injury since becoming a full-time player.  If you owned him last season, this could sour you on his value for the 2010 fantasy baseball season.  However, if you look closer, you should be even more enamored by his numbers.  Ramirez posted a .317 BA (the second highest of his career), 15 HR, and 65 RBI in only 306 ABs.  Once you do the math, you will see that 2009 was among his best seasons if you adjust for the lack of playing time.  His AB/HR rate was 20.4, his RBI count was still over 100 pro-rating it over a full season, and his OBP was at a career high.  Even his BB/K rate ticked up in this 2009.

These are not signs of a player in decline.  In fact, I find it impressive that despite losing so much playing time to a dislocated shoulder, his power remained largely unaffected, as did his secondary statistics.  With an entire off-season to recover, you can expect that his stats will make a rebound to the levels he has established over the last many seasons.

Fantasy Implications

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This is the year to grab Aramis Ramirez.  In keeper leagues, it is possible that he will be available for the first time in many seasons.  Fantasy GMs that are just casually looking at their fantasy magazines will see that he was hurt, and only hit 15 HRs.  You, on the other hand, know that his AB/HR rate, and other stats did not decline at all.  Fantasy baseball is all about value.  Value is all about perception.  The perception which his 2009 stat-line gives to the casual observer is that his power dropped drastically, and that he was unable to stay healthy.  This should lead to a drop in his price in 2010 fantasy baseball auctions, or position in 2010 fantasy baseball drafts.  Jump on him if you can.

Since you are reading this, you are NOT the casual fantasy baseball observer, and you realize that the steady production should pick up right where it left off.  The batting average is certainly not going anywhere, the power has remained above average, and his potential to drive in 100 runs is high.  He could easily put up a season similar to Ryan Zimmerman or Evan Longoria, or Kevin Youkilis at a much lower price.  If he is available on your draft board late (which he probably will be), do not hesitate to draft him understanding that the decline in his numbers is only on the surface.

Starting Pitchers

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Top Tier:  Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia, Johan Santana, Dan Haren, Zack Greinke, Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez

Tim Lincecum is just awesome.  He shows no signs of slowing down.  Roy Halladay had a strong case to win the A.L. Cy Young Award in 2009.  Other names come and go, Roy Halladay is still in the top tier.  CC Sabathia could win 15 games in his sleep on the mighty Yankees.  His ratios were still very good despite the home run bonanza at Yankee Stadium.  Johan Santana has been too good for too long to doubt.  I have no problems believing that he will have a very strong 2010.  Zach Greinke actually did win the A.L. Cy Young Award, and was excellent in 2009.  With his anxiety issues behind him, and 4 “plus” pitches, he could be atop this list for a long time.

Dan Haren’s numbers in 2009 were excellent even with a second half that was very pedestrian.  If he could just put it together for a full season, he could be the best pitcher in the game.  Justin Verlander finally had that complete breakout season.  Once the lid is off of the strikeout jar, I expect them to keep coming.  He got his ratios under control from a down 2008, putting up his third year out of four with an ERA under 4.0.  Felix Hernandez took a nice step forward in 2009.  He got his BB rate back down, and his HR rate dropped for the third straight season.  His BABIP in 2009 was a little low, so his ratios may uptick slightly.

Second Tier:  Adam Wainwright, Jon Lester, Cliff Lee, Josh Beckett, Chris Carpenter, Cole Hamels, Javier Vazquez, Matt Cain, John Lackey, Brandon Webb, Jake Peavy, Clayton Kershaw, Yovani Gallardo, Ubaldo Jimenez, Ted Lilly, Josh Johnson, Jair Jurrjens

These guys are still very good options, and many of them are capable of putting up first tier numbers.  Some had off years, some are one category short of being great, and some have yet to provide enough track record to justify paying top tier prices.  To all of you Adam Wainwright owners that don’t like seeing his name this low:  Chill.  If he does in 2010 what he did in 2009, he will be in the top tier.  Personally, I am not willing to pay what is going to be top dollar for a guy with such a short track record of first tier type success.  All of Jon Lester’s numbers are headed in the right direction for a breakout season.  With a rising K rate, a falling BB rate, and BAA that has dropped two straight years, this could be the last chance to get him without paying very top dollar (if it isn’t too late already).  Cliff Lee got shipped off to Seattle.  The ballpark there will help him, but the supporting cast and the change back to the American League will not.  Josh Beckett always seems to be in the second tier.  His stats tick up, and his stats tick down.  However, he just does not seem to be able to stay at the top of the fantasy baseball pitching rankings.

Chris Carpenter managed to stay healthy in 2009, and he was just as good as we remembered.  I kept waiting for the wheels to come off that bus, and it just kept rolling.  There is definitely still a little risk of injury with him, but he is good enough when healthy to lead your rotation.  Cole Hamels not only had an off-year, but his post-season comments are sure to cost him positions in 2010 snake drafts.  Grab him.  He is so good, and this is a buy low opportunity of which smart GMs will take advantage.  His BABIP was 55 points higher in 2009 than in 2008, and his BB/9 rate was unchanged.  I am skeptical that Javier Vazquez will have as much success in 2010 as he did in 2009.  The change back to the American League along with the move from a pitchers park to one that favors hitters could spell higher ratios.  Beware.  Matt Cain just keeps plugging along and getting better with age.  There are a couple of signs that his ratios will correct towards his career averages.  Firstly, his BABIP was .268 in 2009, that was well under his usual.  Also, he let up his highest HR rate of his career in 2009.  Although wins may continue to be a problem on the lowly Giants, he remains a quality investment.    John Lackey continues to be a good option, however two straight seasons pitching under 200 innings are a warning sign not to chase him too far.

The next two pitchers have been staples in the top tier in recent years.  Brandon Webb has perhaps the best sinker in the game.  He had shoulder problems that cost him all of 2009, and is a high risk/reward play in 2010.  Watch him in the spring and adjust your price on his health.  Jake Peavy is not only coming back from injury, but now moves to the American League and a hitter’s park.  That did not seem to slow him down at all at the end of 2009.  Unlike Javier Vazquez (who has a mixed track record of success and failure), Peavy has given us no reason to believe that the change in scenery will result in any difference in his stats except more wins.  Ted Lilly had a great season interrupted by injury in 2009, but should remain a low-profile source of wins and good ratios.

The next five starters are youngsters with great promise.  Clayton Kershaw made Dodger fans drool at what he did in a short 2009.  As a fantasy GM, contain that drool until you see his price.  His K/9 rate stood at 9.74, his BAA was .198, and he only gave up 119 hits in 171.0 IN.  If he can just get control of that high walk rate, this kid could be something to watch.  The fact that many youngsters never really overcome that problem is why you need to contain that drool.  Like Kershaw, Yovani Gallardo is some control away from being included in the next generation of elite pitchers.  With a K/9 rate in 2009 that was even better than Kershaw, he too has dominant stuff, holding batters to a .223 average in 2009.

Ubaldo Jimenez took another big step forward last year, improving on both his K/9 and BB/9 rates.  Despite pitching in Colorado, his ability to get ground-ball outs have kept home runs from being an issue.  Of the group, Josh Johnson has the best control. His allowed the fewest walks of the group in 2009, and his K rate was only a bit lower than Kershaw and Gallardo.  In that ballpark, he could even improve on these numbers.  Jair Jurrjens is only 24 years old this season.  He built a second excellent campaign on top of a great rookie season.  Across the board, his numbers improved.  The potential is there to increase the strikeouts as he gets stronger.

Third Tier:  James Shields, A.J. Burnett, Jered Weaver, Matt Garza, Scott Baker, Chad Billingsley, Scott Kazmir, Tommy Hanson, Roy Oswalt, Carlos Zambrano, Ricky Nolasco, J.A. Happ, Francisco Liriano, Max Scherzer, Ryan Dempster, John Danks, Rich Harden, Andy Pettitte, Derek Lowe, Neftali Feliz, Clay Buchholz, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Brett Anderson,

James Shields was quite the disappointment in 2009.  He let up a career high in home runs, let up 20 more hits than innings pitched, and his walk rate was the worst since his first season in the show.  Perhaps he should go back to working mostly fastball/chageup and less of the curveball.  He has good odds for a rebound but don’t overlook his struggles.  A.J. Burnett’s ratios (as expected) were not excellent, but thats what happens when you let up 21 home runs and walk 97 batters. He did pitch over 200 innings in back to back seasons for the first time.  He also came through with the strikeouts, but only 13 wins was disappointing.  This is what Burnett is, and there is no reason to expect drastic improvement (except for wins, since the Yankees are a scoring machine).

Scott Baker showed flashes of brilliance in 2009.  Since he has excellent control (as shown by just issuing 48 walks in over 200 innings during 2009), his WHIP is above average.  After the All-Star Break he went 8-2 with a 3.28 ERA.  If you are looking for a mild sleeper that could outperform his price greatly, this is where you should look.  Chad Billingsley was cruising right along through the first half of 2009 putting up numbers right in line with the stats that made GMs pay large amounts in auctions.  The second half of the season, those stats took a sharp turn downward.  His owners were looking for fewer walks, but Billingsley’s BB/9 rate remained unchanged.  While his ERA went up close to a run, his BAA actually went down 10 points.  Take the discount and run.

Whichever GM in your league goes for the “next big thing” every season will go after Tommy Hanson this year.  I personally would rather go for one of the above options that are more proven.  Hanson may be good, but 124 innings is not enough of a sample size for me to pay what my competition will.  It seems everywhere I look, Ricky Nolasco is ranked absurdly high.  He definitely has huge upside, and in 2009 his K/9 rate went up significantly.  It is the 23 home runs that worry me.  His control is above average for a pitcher his age, so if he can keep the ball in the yard, he can quickly improve on that 5.06 ERA he posted in 2009.  If that ERA scares away other owners and the price remains reasonable, grab him.  If it enters 2nd tier prices, let him go.  Supposedly, Francisco Liriano is pitching very well with good velocity in winter ball.  With the amount of time that has gone by since he has been good, and the numbers he has put up since, Liriano will be cheaper than ever.  If he is healthy this spring, he will be an excellent gamble.

J.A. Happ made a strong case for National League Rookie of the Year.  I am not as impressed as a fantasy GM.  He is a fly-ball pitcher in a hitter’s ballpark.  His K/9 rate was only 6.45 in 2009, and his LOB% was very high.  While Happ will be a name everyone knows in your league, he is not one that will be worth the gamble.  As you have read, I usually downgrade a pitcher for moving from the National League to the American League.  The one case this season where that is not true is in the case of Max Scherzer.  The ballpark in Detroit is more friendly to pitchers, and the Tigers will win more games than the Diamondbacks.  Scherzer has good stuff, a nice K rate, and could take a nice step forward on a team that is actually competitive.  After a strong 2008, most of Ryan Dempster’s numbers ticked down towards his career averages in 2009.  It looks like his new improved control is for real, but he will never be a great pitcher for WHIP purposes.  It is the same old story for Rich Harden.  If he is healthy, he could be one of the top pitchers in the game.  Now he also has to pitch half his games in a hitter’s ballpark.

Clay Buchholz has four good pitches and could emerge this season as a good fantasy asset.  It is true that Boston is a tough place to break into the big leagues and find immediate success, but if he does it will be huge for fantasy purposes.  He reminds me a bit of Zack Greinke.  Neftali Feliz has my Ranger-fan-friend very excited.  He has the K-rate, but needs some more control.  There is upside here, fantasy baseball sleeper alert!!  It now appears that Daisuke Matsuzaka was injured for pretty much all of 2009.  It sounds a little bit like an excuse (since this news just was revealed recently), but a rebound is possible.  I would not pay as though it were certain, though.  Brett Anderson appears to have both the K-rate and the control to be a very good fantasy asset.  Could be a late sleeper, but a short track record makes him a less than certain bet.

Fourth Tier:  Scott Feldman, Joe Blanton, Randy Wolf, Mark Buehrle, Tim Hudson, Jonathan Sanchez, Aaron Harang, Kevin Millwood, Gavin Floyd, Dave Bush, Joe Saunders, Kevin Slowey, Erik Bedard, Hiroki Kuroda, Wandy Rodriguez, Rick Porcello, Edwin Jackson, Joba Chamberlain, Ben Sheets, Stephen Strasburg, Randy Wells, Joel Pineiro, Johnny Cueto, Brad Penny, Barry Zito, Ervin Santana, Aroldis Chapman, John Maine

Scott Feldman was surprisingly effective in 2009.  His 17 wins could draw some attention, but his ratios and mediocre strikeout rate could keep him of the radar.  If you throw out the 6 innings he pitched as a reliever (and gave up 9 runs) his numbers for the season get even more impressive.  He also faded down the stretch, posting his worst ERA in September.  I am just not a Joe Blanton fan.  He has not let up fewer hits than innings pitched since 2005, and he let up a career high HR/9 rate in 2009.  His LOB% was also a career high, indicating that more of his base runners will score in 2010.  Randy Wolf had an amazing season in 2009.  Treat it like what it is, a very nice, outlier of a season that fantasy GMs will overpay for.  Mark Buehrle threw a perfect game in 2009, and that will only add to how overrated he is in a fantasy sense.  He has not let up fewer hits than innings pitched since 2002.  I like that Ben Sheets has wound up in Oakland.  The ballpark is excellent for pitchers, and the low-pressure and expectations for the A’s will work in his favor.  He swears he is healthy, but all fantasy baseball GMs should know that it is still a risk.

Jonathan Sanchez has the Ks, but his control is still a long way from being a fantasy asset (2009- 163.3 IN, 88 BB).  Once he gets that control, look out.  Dave Bush’s season would not have been so bad if not for a come-backer that tore his bicep.  He never got back on track after that.  A late flier at best.  Ben Sheets is still a free agent at the time of this posting.  Even if he signs with a good team, his injury history make him a gamble.  Rick Porcello has some serious upside.  He is only 22 years old and is already finding success to the tune of 14 wins.  A little more control and a little more strength that comes with age, and he could be a gem.  If you haven’t been paying attention, you may have missed Hiroki Kuroda’s nice 2009 season.  He has yet to throw 200 innings in a season, but his numbers show that he has the ability to be effective when healthy.

Stephen Strasburg is supposedly a phenom, but it remains to be seen how much he will pitch in 2010.  He will most likely be overpriced.  Joba Chamberlain’s numbers are all moving in the wrong direction.  A Yankee pitcher over-hyped?  Wow.  Johnny Cueto did not really make much progress in 2009.  In fact his K/9 rate got worse.  Dusty Baker doesn’t care though, because he has a new young arm to abuse. Aroldis Chapman made a bad decision to sign with the Reds.  He will get his chance to shine this season, and if he is good Dusty will wear that arm out.  Recent reports have John Maine healthy again.  He was seen as a high upside pitcher after a good 2007, and will be a late sleeper for 2010.

Fifth Tier: Clayton Richard, Justin Masterson, Chris Volstad, David Price, Nick Blackburn, Luke Hochevar, Brian Matusz, Marc Rzepczynski, Jorge de la Rosa, Gil Meche, Jeff Niemann, Bronson Arroyo, Chris Young, Kevin Correia, Ricky Romero, Jason Hammel, Kenshin Kawakami, Kyle Lohse, Mike Pelfrey, Paul Maholm, Matt Latos, Shaun Marcum, Zach Duke, Bud Norris, Felipe Paulino, Garrett Mock, Trevor Cahill, Wade Davis, Brandon Marrow, Brett Cecil, David Huff, Gio Gonzalez, John Lannan, Jeremy Guthrie, Jon Garland, Koji Uehara, Manny Parra, Robinson Tejada, Ross Ohlendorf, Ryan Rowland-Smith, Carl Pavano, Scott Richmond, Sean West

Once you get this low, the upside starts getting thin.  After all, we are talking about a lot of 4th and 5th starters here (many on bad teams).  It may be time to think about grabbing a reliever that can help you in the ratios instead of taking on the risk a bad starter represents.  Brian Matusz has showed some upside in 8 starts in 2009, but is so young he should only be taken as a late flier.  Marc Rzepczynski only had a 61 inning sample size in the show last year, but his minor league track record make him a nice sleeper.  If he looks like he has earned a roster spot in the late spring, don’t hesitate to push him up your draft board a little.  Jeff Niemann also looked good in his rookie season.  His K rate leaves something to be desired, but he has upside.  Kenshin Kawakami may or may not have a rotation spot in 2010.  If he does he showed enough to make him worth drafting late.