Mark DeRosa  (3B/OF – SF) –  Mark DeRosa is still dealing with some soreness in his wrist.  He had surgery on it in the off-season and it has still not fully recovered.  This is very bad news for his fantasy value, which had already taken a big hit for two reasons.  Firstly, in 2009 his OBP dropped 60 points from his previous two seasons.  His strikeout rate took a huge jump, and he only gained 2 home runs from his 2008 total.  Secondly, he moved to the pitcher-friendly AT&T park (so him matching his 23 HR total from 2009 is far from likely).  He wasn’t a great pick before the news that his wrist is not healed.  Now, he is a terrible pick.

Nick Johnson  (1B – NYY) –  For those of you timing how long it would take for Nick Johnson to get dinged up, you may stop your stopwatches.  He has a sore back.  Normally, I would not even report something so innocuous as a sore back in spring training.  However, in the case of Nick “Fragile” Johnson, it is just an indication that it is the same old story with the breakable on-base machine.  Draft him hoping for 350 ABs, not 500.

Fernando Rodney  (RP – LAA) –  It looks as though Fernando Rodney will begin throwing soon.  One can assume that Brian Fuentes is now nervous.  Although Rodney had a 4.40 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP, he blew only one save in 2009.  Fuentes’ ratios were not much better in 2009, and he blew more saves.  If Rodney is significantly behind in his spring training, the result could be a longer leash for Fuentes.  However, I am guessing that leash runs out early this year.

Allen Craig  (1B/3B/OF – STL) -  This is a very interesting situation that I will track this spring.  By no means is Craig assured a roster spot this season.  It reminds me of back in the day when Tony LaRussa swore up and down that Albert Pujols was not going to break camp with the team.  Obviously he did and hasn’t looked back.  With the injury issues to Brendan Ryan, and presence of only stopgap options behind him, Craig could get a look if he performs well this spring.  Craig has played first base, third base, and the outfield.  With such versatility, it would not surprise me at all if he found a roster spot.  He was the organization’s player of the year in 2009, putting up stats that Brendan Ryan can only dream of.  He is also currently dealing with a minor quad injury, but is due to be back soon.  Track this closely, there is some sleeper potential here.

Joel Piniero  (SP – LAA) –  Not only do I not believe that Piniero is a fantasy asset, I think that he is very likely to waste a large amount of your bid money if you buy him in your 2010 fantasy baseball auction.  Sure, he threw a career high 214 innings, had a 3.77 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP.  However if you look a little closer, you will see that his secondary numbers paint a less optimistic picture of his “breakout” season.  His K/9 rate dropped to a career low 4.42.  While his BAA was not terrible at .265 (which is decent, not great) he still let up more hits than innings pitched.  If it were not for his career best BB/9 rate (which was WAY beyond his career norms, about half what it had been the previous two seasons), his WHIP could have done some damage to fantasy teams.  So sure, if he can hold that walk rate down, his ratios may not be terrible.  However, paying for a pitcher that is moving from the National to the American League after a career season is exactly the way that a fantasy GM can get burned and waste either bid money or a too high a pick in a fantasy baseball draft.  Oh yeah, he struggled his first start this spring.

Jason Heyward  (OF – ATL) –  Heyward is impressing early this spring with his plate discipline and defense.  Matt Diaz is still a threat to a full season worth of ABs, but the ceiling is just so much higher for the younger Heyward.  He is very young, and could struggle at times, however he is a real talent that you should track closely this spring.  If he breaks camp with a starting job, he could be a nice fantasy baseball sleeper for 2010.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia  (C – TEX) –  There is an open competition going on for the starting catcher role on the Rangers.  Salty and Taylor Teagarden are neck and neck.  While this competition would ideally result in finding which one should start this season, more likely it will result in finding which one will get the greater end of a platoon.  Salty did manager to have a good game Thursday, going 2-3 with a 3-run bomb.  However, that is not going to seal the deal.  An maintained offensive explosion from one of them could tip the balance.  If you have to chose between one or the other, go with Salty until you have Teagarden does something special.

Q:  Is Francisco Liriano’s good off-season performance going to continue against big league hitters?

Francisco Liriano is sure to be on many 2010 fantasy baseball sleeper lists.  His phenomenal potential which he displayed in 2006 is not going to just be forgotten.  Though his numbers in 2009 were awful, smart and attentive GMs will know that he has been throwing very well this off-season.  Reportedly hitting 95 mph, he posted a .186 BAA with a 1.54 ERA and .86 WHIP in the Dominican Winter League.  Now, we have to be aware that Liriano’s winter ball numbers are an extremely small sample size (11.7 IN).  Every pitcher goes through stretches where they seem to be untouchable, and certainly 12 innings is not enough to decide that Liriano is back to form.  However, if he comes into spring training and starts putting up similar ratios against tougher competition, he could be a gem for those of us that have paid close enough attention.

Q:  Is Brandon Wood ready to hit at the major league level?

I have been waiting for Brandon Wood to get a legitimate shot at a starting job for several seasons now.  It is very likely that you have been too.  However, you have to be aware that when he popped onto our radars, the picture we had in our heads was of a 40+ home run hitting shortstop.  Now that he will be playing third base, part of that value is gone.  Also, his K/BB rate has seen little progress in his limited major league ABs.  With the starting job all but handed to him for 2010, this spring should give us a little view of what could be coming.  If he continues to strike out much more than walk, I will greatly reduce the price I am willing to pay.  If he makes some progress, I would bump him up on my sleeper list.

Q:  Was David Ortiz’ power outage an aberration or the beginnings of a decline?

When talking purely about power, spring training is not really something for which we are going to get a definitive answer.  After all, many of the ABs that David Ortiz will receive this spring will be against pitchers that are not ready to face major league hitters.  A couple of 85 mph fastballs at the wrong time could result in home runs that taint the sample we get to see from a power hitter.  Supposedly, Ortiz has been pulling the ball more in recent seasons, and an opposite field approach could help his numbers.  With a failed PED test, there is reason to believe that hitting the ball to left field is not the real reason his power numbers have dropped.

Q:  Will Grady Sizemore return to put up numbers close to his past 30-30 performance?

With two separate surgeries in 2009, I am willing to chalk Grady Sizemore’s poor numbers up to injury.  Yet, a smart fantasy GM will have to accept that the risk of injury is increased.  Also, it is very possible that there could be some residual decline due to last year’s problems.  A elbow injury could continue to affect his power, and a groin injury could keep him from running as much.  This is in addition to the fact that the Indians are offensively terrible.  A reduction in the number of runs he will score should be assumed.  With Sizemore moving to the second slot in the batting order, his RBI total may improve, but that is far from assured.  He is young enough to return to elite status, but fantasy GMs should be a little skeptical until they see him playing without restriction.

Q:  How will Matt LaPorta find the ABs he needs to break-out in 2010?

The addition of Russell Branyan has put a haze around the role of one of 2010’s biggest fantasy baseball sleepers.  When Branyan first signed, I along with most baseball people assumed that he would be filling a part time or DH role.  However, Manny Acta said that Branyan has the inside track on the starting first base job.  Most of us assumed that Matt LaPorta would get the shot that we have been waiting for him to get.  Now it appears as though he will either have to win a job in the outfield (likely at the expense of Michael Brantley) or have Branyan stumble early to get a full season of ABs.  Personally, I am skeptical that Branyan can stay both healthy and effective for long stretches of time, so LaPorta should get his shot.

Q:  What the heck is the Royals starting lineup going to look like?

This is not an easy question, as their roster contains a ton of players that have been starters in the past, and also many players that have the potential to be better than those starters.  Players such as Rick Ankiel, Alberto Callaspo, Yuniesky Betancourt, and David Dejesus have held starting jobs before.  They had better produce, however, because the off-season has seen the addition of Josh Fields and Chris Getz.  That, combined with the return of Mike Aviles, could drastically change that starting lineup.  Another large question is how much faith they have in Alex Gordon.  With Fields able to play both third base and the outfield (not that his defense is very good at either position), there are not many players other than Billy Butler that should feel their job is safe.

Q:  Is Alfonso Soriano’s knee healthy?

You should get the visions of a return to 40-40 form out of your head right now (even 30-30 is just ridiculous).  With the injuries Alfonso Soriano has suffered, it is unclear how much of the decline in his numbers is due to those ailments and how much is due to an eroding skill set.  Having a bad knee certainly reduces his stolen base potential, and it is not hard to imagine that it has drained part of his power as well.  Reports out of Cubs camp are that his knee is not yet 100%, but it is better than it was last season.  The question is how much better, and will he be able to make a rebound in 2010?  Spring training could give us a little insight into how much he will be worth (or should be discounted) in 2010 fantasy baseball auctions and drafts.  At the least we should see how healthy he really is.

Q:  Who will win the starting center-field job for the Reds?

I briefly covered this situation in the latest Quick Fix article.  While no one will deny that Chris Dickerson has the tools to develop into a quality major league hitter, Drew Stubbs greatly outperformed him when given the chance in 2009.  Dusty Baker has come forward and said that Stubbs deserves to play because of that performance.  If Dickerson can prove that he has rediscovered the power that left him last year, he could push the issue.  However, at this point it seems that Stubbs is the frontrunner.

Q:  Will Jay Bruce learn to hit lefties?

The reality is that the spring will probably not give us enough information to answer this question, but you should be aware that this is the major stumbling block Jay Bruce has met with in his young career.  We all know that he has massive power potential in his bat, but that alone is not enough to justify the large price which he is sure to command.  After hitting .190 against lefties in 2008 and .210 in 2009, he still has work to do in order to keep his overall BA from hurting fantasy teams.  That said, he proved that he can hit in the minor leagues, and is still young enough to have those skills translate into major league ability.

Bobby Jenks  (RP – CWS) –  I like Bobby Jenks for the 2010 season.  He has showed up to camp 20 pounds lighter, and has quit drinking alcohol.  In 2009 his K/9 rate rose for the first time in years, and he seems to be re-decicating himself to his craft.  His job security is fairly high, and if he actually can continue to maintain a good K rate, he should be just as strong as he usually is.  Bump him up a few slots on your cheat sheets.

Troy Glaus  (1B/3B – ATL) –  Troy Glaus makes for an interesting fantasy baseball sleeper in 2010.  He is healthy, and looking good early in camp.  Of course, just because he is healthy at this particular moment doesn’t mean that he will stay that way, and you should be aware that drafting Glaus contains some risk of injury.  However, if you can get him late or cheap, he should be able to provide nice pop.  His defense at first base is still a project, so track the progress he makes during the spring to make sure a full season of ABs is assured (barring injury).

Rajai Davis  (OF – OAK) –  According to Ricky Henderson, Davis has the speed to lead the league in stolen bases in 2010.  However, the crowded nature of the Oakland outfield makes me worry about him getting the ABs he would need to do so.  After 404 major league ABs in 2007 and 2008 during which he struggled to maintain a decent batting average, 2009 saw him hit over .300 for the first time.  He still needs to work on taking walks more often, but he did hit for a decent average in the minor leagues.

Jose Reyes  (SS – NYM) –  In his first AB, Jose Reyes hit a triple and ran without a problem.  This is a good sign for those of you in keeper leagues that held him over for 2010.  However, it does not mean that the risk involved in owning him has gone away.  He will still be one play away from re-injuring that hamstring all year long.  I have said it before: Jose Reyes is the highest risk/reward gamble for the 2010 season, and he won’t be cheap.

Drew Stubbs  (OF – CIN) –  While Chris Dickerson wants to start, Dusty Baker is unwilling to remove Drew Stubbs from the center field slot until he has a reason to do so.  Dickerson was given a chance to win the job last season, but injury and a lack of pop made the Reds look for other options.  Stubbs stepped up last season, and posted 8 HRs and 10 SBs in only 180 ABs.  While his K/BB rate could stand some improvement, it seems that he has a little more offensive potential than the athletic Dickerson.  Baker can be unpredictable with younger players (unless we are talking about pitchers, in which case he will abuse their arms) so a platoon could develop.  However, it seems that Stubbs will have to falter in order to open the door for Dickerson to play as a starter.  Right now, however, it looks like Stubbs is a nice sleeper who’s 2009 numbers are low profile enough for him to slip under your competition’s radar.

James Loney  (1B – LAD) –  Apparently James Loney put on a good amount of muscle in the off season.  He says that he thinks this year his power will take a step forward.  There are three possible outcomes.  He could: 1) Stay the same player he has been.  2) He could be right and hit for more power.  3) He could be wrong, but trying to hit for more power could take away from his batting average.  Overall, statements like “this is the year I will hit for more power” should not affect the price you are willing to pay for a player.

Pablo Sandoval (1B/3B – SF) –  Pablo Sandoval is now wearing prescription goggles in the batter’s box.  The thought that he was able to hit so well while not seeing the ball clearly should scare the living hell out of all pitchers.  He could be scary-good in 2010.

Jose Bautista  (OF – TOR) –  Believe it or not, Bautista is currently the favorite to start in right field for the Blue Jays.  Yes, I am just as surprised as you are, and no, I do not expect that situation to last very long.  More likely it is a motivational tool being used to get Travis Snider to step up this season.  Bautista is a .238 career hitter, and does not offer the power that the Jays lack.

Ben Sheets  (SP – OAK) –  Sheets is telling anyone that will listen that he is 100% healthy this season.  While this is normal talk for an injury prone player like Sheets, this is also the type of player that can help you win the league.  He has no stats from 2009 for your competition to see, so he could fly right under their radar.  Even if there are a few members of your league that are watching him this spring, they will likely be hesitant to bid more than a few dollars in order to land him.  Lemme give you another name that was very similar to Sheets’s situation in 2009… Chris Carpenter.  That worked out pretty well for those GMs that took the gamble on him.  If Sheet’s velocity is where it should be late in the spring, I will gamble on him for the right price.

Josh Hamilton  (OF – TEX) –  Shoulder problems last year, and already a shoulder contusion this spring.  For the most part, his story makes you want to root for him.  His career year in 2008 was awesome, but has to be put in context.  That was two years ago, after many years of his talent being wasted.  He is not some 22 year old superstar.  He is 29 years old, and an injury risk.  Root for him, but don’t pay as though he is going to be a core member of your keeper league for years.

Octavio Dotel  (RP – PIT) –  He is the favorite to start the season closing games for the Pirates, so he has to be on your radar.  Here is the skinny.  He has met with some success throughout his career, and has put up the occasional great season.  Yet he has not been able to hold down the closer’s role for long stretches whether due to injury or ineffectiveness.  Now 36 years old, this could easily be his last chance to hold a role this significant (and perhaps extend his career a couple of years).  His ERA in 2009 was great, but his K/9 rate dropped from 12.86 down to 10.83 (which is still by all means respectable), and his BB/9 rate went up from 3.9 to 5.2.  The lack of other good options should give him a nice long leash, but don’t be surprised if that leash eventually runs out.  Also note that he is dealing with some side soreness, which is not the start he was looking for.

Stephen Strasburg (SP – WAS) –  If you watch as much ESPN as I do, you have probably heard the story on this kid.  He is supposedly awesome, and Pudge Rodrigeuz recently threw his two cents in about Strasburg to the media.  When asked if Strasburg has stuff similar to Justin Verlander, he said that Nolan Ryan was a closer comparison.  That type of comment obviously has to be taken with a grain of salt, but it is exactly the type of thing that make fantasy baseball GMs drool about a player, and thus overpay for him.  The story I like even better is how Strasburg’s nickname is evolving.  Supposedly they are calling him “Jesus”, because when hitters make their out against him they walk away muttering, “Jesus!”.  Be careful reaching for Strasburg in your fantasy baseball draft or auction.  While the Nationals do need starters pretty badly, there is just no telling how much (or little) time in the majors he will get.

Mike Napoli  (C – LAA) –  Mike Napoli may get it.  He is working on his defense, apparently switching to a bigger glove.  Napoli has tremendous power, and has managed to keep him batting average high enough not to hurt fantasy teams.  His lack of ABs over the last three years is the only reason he is not considered among the elite catchers.  If his defense can improve to the point where Mike Scioscia can trust him for 120-130 games, he could be one of the big fantasy baseball breakouts of 2010.  Of course, a bigger glove is not going to help him call a better game for his pitchers.  It remains to be seen if it is an issue of his pitch calling or actually catching the ball that is the major part of the problem.

Francisco Liriano  (SP – MIN) –  Early reports are good, as was his stint in the Dominican League over the winter.  He says he feels like he is getting back into his rookie year form.  While I am not willing to pay as though that is certain, I could easily believe that he can make enough comeback to make a modest bid worth while.  Since his 2009 numbers were not very good, he is similar to Ben Sheets in that his profile should be fairly low.

Michael Brantley  (OF – CLE) –  My pick for A.L. ROY’s chances to actually win the award took a big hit yesterday when Russell Branyan was said to be the front runner for the starting first base job.  Such a move would put 2010 fantasy baseball sleeper Matt LaPorta into the outfield, and put uber-sleeper Brantley in AAA.  It remains to be seen if Branyan can stay effective and healthy at the same time, so don’t give up on Brantley quite yet.  He now he needs either LaPorta or Branyan to fail in order to get the ABs he needs.  He has the ability to step up should the opportunity to win a job present itself.

Chone Figgins  (3B? – SEA) –  I have been doing a lot of stat trivia on Twitter lately, and I keep coming across Figgins’ name.  He had a great year last season.  He was the only player in the majors that walked at least 100 times and stole over 20 bases in 2009.  His OBP was almost .400, and he stole over 30 bases for the 6th straight season.  However, the reason that I am writing about him today is that the Mariners are considering moving him to second base.  An excellent defender at third, I would be surprised if this actually happened.  Yet his 2010 fantasy baseball value would take a huge jump should they make this move official.

Carlos Quentin  (OF – CWS) –  The knock on Quentin for a long time has been the fact that he is injury prone.  After his breakout season in 2008, he showed why fantasy baseball owners hesitate to pay full price for that type of player.  Losing much of the 2009 season to wrist and heel injuries, Quentin saw his numbers drop.  However, if you are willing to gamble that he will stay healthy in 2010, his fantasy baseball value should make a large recovery.  His power remained intact, holding a 16.7 AB/HR rate in 2009.  This is only 3 ABs per home run fewer than in 2008.  Even going back to his minor league career, he has been a strong OBP player with an excellent K/BB ratio.  With the skills he brings to the table, it is only the chance of more injury that keeps his price low.  2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections:  .282 BA, 34 HR, 102 RBI, 100 R, 4 SBs, 505 ABs

Grady Sizemore  (OF – CLE) –  Grady Sizemore was my #1 ranked fantasy baseball outfielder going into the 2009 season.  That is not too hard to believe after he put up a 30-30 season in 2008.  However, the fact that the Indians are pathetic and injuries he suffered reduced that power/speed combo to a 18-13 line.  Now join me for this next part….. YIPEEEE!!!!  Grady Sizemore’s value as not been lower in years, and in all likelyhood will not be this low for years more to come.  In my keeper leagues, he has been untouchable…. until now.  When his names comes up in your fantasy baseball auction, call out, “multiple surgeries”, and then bid $1 more.  Is there risk the injury resurfaces?  Sure.  Is 30-30 upside worth that risk?  Yes, especially for those of you in fantasy baseball keeper leagues.  Sizemore is only 28 this year, and cannot be written off after one sub-par season.  2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections: .273 BA, 25 HR, 92 RBI, 90 R, 28 SB, 559 AB.

Troy Glaus  (3B/1B – ATL) –  Remember him?  I’m not sure if Glaus qualifies as a fantasy baseball sleeper since most everyone knows who he is.  However, he is definitely a candidate for a major rebound after only managing 29 ABs in the 2009 season.  Now make sure you read that correctly.  A rebound, not a rebirth.  You can expect that the power will return now that his shoulder is healthy.  You can also expect his batting average to still remain a liability to your team.   He is slated to be a starter, however, since his numbers were non-existant in 2009, he is just the type of player that you can slip by your competition very late or very cheap.  Even though he has been less of an asset than he was early in his career, his K/BB ratio is right where it has been for years.  Now a first baseman, the risk of injury is (slightly) lower, but keep in mind it is still there.  Do not pay as though he is going to hit the same 28 HRs he did in 2008, but don’t kid yourself.  If he is healthy, he has value.  2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections:  .252 BA, 22 HR, 88 RBI, 79 R, 3 SB, 485 AB.

Aramis Ramirez  (3B – CHC) –  Ranked near the top of third base cheat sheets for years, Aramis Ramirez was held to just 306 ABs in 2009, he should be cheaper than he has been since 2002.  Yet when you look at his numbers on a per at-bat basis, his home run rate and run production was right where it should be.  Top that off with his highest batting average since 2004, and you aren’t going to get much better numbers from a half-season.  The progress he has made in his K/BB ratio is noticeable, and his OBP has risen for three straight seasons.  Take the discount that will come this year and expect a return to his former level. 2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections:  .301 BA, 29 HR, 106 RBI, 99 R, 1 SB, 528 AB.

Jake Peavy  (SP – CWS) –  Jake Peavy has been ranked among the elite starting pitchers since his breakout season in 2004.  An ankle injury derailed his 2009 campaign.  Read that again…. “an ankle injury”.  This is not a case where surgery was done to fix an elbow or shoulder, which means that Peavy’s arm is just fine.  Perhaps you competition will only see the reduced innings in 2009 and not bother to check what Peavy was suffering from.  Pile on top of that the change from the National League to the American, and his change to a pitcher-friendly ballpark to one that favors hitters, and his price could drop even further.  If this proves to be the case during your draft, you will most likely be able to steal him for less or later than he has gone for years.  I would agree with critics that Peavy’s ERA will likely take a hit with the change of league and ballpark, however his BAA has remained consistently excellent throughout his career, and his WHIP hasn’t been above 1.23 since 2003, so the increase will likely be small.  Whatever value he loses due to the rise in ERA will likely be offset by the increased number of wins he will receive now that he is off of the lowly Padres.  2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections:  17 W, 3.25 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 185 K, 210 IN

Michael Brantley  (OF – CLE) –  Brantley has recently been announced as the frontrunner for the Indians left field starting job.  There is good reason for this, and for you to know his name when your fantasy baseball draft or auction rolls around.  When your competition looks at their fantasy baseball magazines (most of them waiting until the week before the draft to do so), they are going to see a snapshot of his production that does not match up with his skills.  In 2009 Brantley recorded 112 ABs with no power at all, 4 SBs, a .313 batting average, and 19 Ks compared to 8 BBs.  The only number in this line that actually can be expected to continue is the batting average.  That K rate (17.0%) is substantially higher than what he consistently produced in the minors, and the BB/9 rate (6.6%) is significantly lower.  In the minors, Brantley’s worst BB rate was 10.4% and ranged up to 13.0%.  The K rate he produced in the minors was never higher than 13.4% in 2007, and was as low as 6.4% in 2008.  In his entire minor league career, he never recorded an OBP that was lower than .350 in any stop.

It is natural, in fact it is common, for minor leaguers that get the call to the bigs to struggle in their first shot at the best pitchers in the world.  However, Brantley has shown that he understands the strike zone, and even in his short big league stint put up a 91.4% contact rate.  These stats are very encouraging.  While he will not hit for power, his speed is for real as shown by his 46 SBs in AAA during the 2009 season.  His success rate was equally impressive as he was only caught stealing 5 times.  If he hits well this spring and secures that starting job, look for him to put up speed numbers that can help your team well beyond the cost that it will take to land him in your draft.

Jason Heyward  (OF – ATL) –  Here is a name that the casual fantasy baseball GM may miss entirely.  With no major league stats to look at, it takes an informed GM to know that Heyward is one of the best minor league prospects in the game.  Bobby Cox recently stated that Heyward could break camp with the big club, and this would be consistent with his fast rise through the minor league system.  In 2008, Heyward started the season in A-ball with 189 ABs where he hit 11 HRs and 15 SBs, with a .323 BA, a .388 OBP, and a .66 BB/K rate in 449 ABs.  In 2009 he started the season in A+ ball, where his excellent production continued, posting a line of 10 HR and 4 SBs, with a .296 BA, a .360 OBP, and a BB/K rate of .70 in 189 ABs.  After that he was promoted to the AA level, and he did not slow down at all.  In 162 ABs at that level, the power continued with 7 HRs, the speed continued with 5 SBs, the average continued at .352, and his improvement to his BB/K rate took a jump up to 1.47 in 162 ABs.

All of these signs show a player that understands the strike zone, has the power to contribute at the major league level, and can steal a base or two in the process.  As a low-profile player with no major league stats to look at, he could be cheap enough to be the fantasy baseball sleeper that every team is looking for.  Keep track of this situation in the spring, as Heyward only has to beat out Matt Diaz to win a significant amount of playing time in 2010.  Since Diaz tends to struggle versus right-handed pitching, Heyward forcing his way into the picture is a good gamble.  On a side note, this kid is huge at 6′4″ and could develop significantly more power going forward.

Everth Cabrera  (SS – SD) –  This sleeper is a little higher-profile than the first two since he recorded 377 ABs with the Padres in 2009.  However, the stat line that he produced in that time was below what Cabrera is capable of, and some of the numbers he posted could even scare away some GMs.  Needless to say, any sleeper at shortstop is worthy of your attention and consideration.  Cabrera does have a few flaws in his game.  His K rate is too high, and his BB rate is too low.  Yet the potential is there for Cabrera to completely blow away the numbers he posted in 2009.

Firstly, the starting job is his.  There is no question that barring injury Cabrera will be a full-time starter in 2010.  Secondly, the numbers that he posted in his short minor league career point to abilities that he did not show in 2009.  While other GMs are focused on his .255 BA in 2009, you should focus on the fact that he had only 50 ABs above A-Ball before being called up to the big leagues.  In his last “full” season in the minors (Rockies-A), Cabrera’s BB/9 rate was actually lower than it was in the big leagues, and while his K rate was higher, it was in the same ballpark as his stint in the bigs.  It is also worthy of note that while that .255 BA from 2009 was not desirable, his OBP was .342 which is very respectable (also, his BABIP during his big league ABs was the lower than any stint in his minor league career).

While other GMs focus on the fact that Cabrera only stole 25 bases while being caught 8 times in 2009, you should focus on the fact that Cabrera stole 73 bases in the minors during the 2008 season and was caught only 16 times.  He has speed to burn.  Oh, and did I mention that this kid is only 23 years old?  Sure, his supporting cast and ballpark are working against his power, RBI, and runs scored.  Yet when talking about a speedster, you are looking for help in the SB and BA category, both of which Cabrera could offer your team for a fraction of the price that a Ryan Theriot or Asdrubal Cabrera will cost.  Finding a sleeper in the outfield is great, as Brantley and Heyward could be.  However, finding a sleeper at a thinner position such as shortstop is what can win you a league.  Follow Everth’s progress this spring, and hope that he doesn’t steal so many bases that his low-profile status is blown.

Outfield

——————

Top Tier:  Ryan Braun, Carl Crawford, Matt Kemp, Jacoby Ellsbury, Matt Holliday, Justin Upton, Jason Bay

Some of the best power and speed mixes in fantasy baseball are in this tier.  Ryan Braun has hit non-stop since joining the major league club.  He hits for power, a high batting average, and even set a career high in stolen bases in 2009.  He is only 26 years old.  Carl Crawford proved that he wasn’t finished after a mediocre 2008, finishing 2009 with 60 SBs and his highest home run total since 2006.  He even got that batting average over .300 to prove himself once again a 5-category threat.  Matt Kemp has the potential to take over the number one slot if he improves again in 2010.  Showing the ability to produce in all five categories, he tops my list for likely members of the 30-30 club in 2010.  Jacoby Ellsbury is a stolen base machine, and he apparently knows it.  He likes to steal, and wants to set milestones.  Expect it to continue in 2010.

Now that Matt Holliday has had a productive season away from Colorado, his price will go back up in 2010.  His power could grow a bit more in 2010, and he even kept up the stolen bases in 2009.  More importantly he still hit over .300.  While not the most flashy pick, he is dependable.  Justin Upton has plenty of upside, but even if he can manage to reach last season’s totals, he is ready to lead your outfield corp.  One red light about Upton is that his BABIP was a little higher than usual in 2009.  Some people may balk at paying full price for Jason Bay in 2010 since he signed to play half his games at Citi-field.  Don’t be one of them.  All he has to do is increase his batting average in 2010 and he will be a bonafide leader of fantasy teams.  The Mets like to use speed on the bases, so even if Bay loses a little of his HR production, he will likely steal more bases.

Second Tier:  Grady Sizemore, Adam Dunn, Curtis Granderson, Manny Ramirez,  Shane Victorino, B.J. Upton, Bobby Abreu, Shin-Soo Choo, Nelson Cruz, Jayson Werth

Several of these players have been in the top tier before, and some may be there after 2010.  Grady Sizemore was a sure top 3 outfield pick in 2009 fantasy baseball drafts and auctions.  Injury ruined his season (along with many fantasy baseball teams).  The Indians are pathetic offensively (if not completely), so his runs and RBI totals may suffer.  However, his power and speed remain intact.  Adam Dunn put together his usual power-heavy season, but finally did so along with a batting average that was not a detriment to fantasy rosters.  It still wasn’t a good batting average, but it was better than usual.  I thought he was over priced before he raised that average in 2009.  In 2010 he will be even more expensive.  Curtis Granderson saw his value jump drastically in this off-season when he was traded from the Tigers to the Yankees.  It remains to be seen where he will hit in the batting order, but wherever it is, it will be better for his fantasy value than anyplace within the city limits of Detroit.  All he needs to do is raise that batting average against left-handed pitching (2009- .183) and he can join the elites in the outfield.  Manny Ramirez is, well, Manny.  I don’t think age is really a factor for him quite yet.  Expect another .300 average with 30ish home runs.  He is in a contract year, so perhaps he will take the game seriously in 2010 and uptick.

Nelson Cruz offered great power and even threw in 20 stolen bases for fantasy owners in 2009.  He figured out minor league pitching, but has needed some time to be effective on the big stage.  Now that he is here, he is not going back.  If he can just get that BB/K rate closer to what he did in 2008, he could be a star.  Note:  Cruz is 30 years old this year, so realize that before paying a premium in keeper-leagues.  Perhaps the most upside in this group is B.J. Upton.  We saw what he could do in his awesome first full season, but it seems he has taken a step back at the plate.  Believers in him took comfort in the fact that despite his drop in batting average and power from 2007 to 2008, his OBP remained almost identical.  In 2009, that OBP dropped by 70 points.  The drop in his 2009 walk rate is undeniable, and should the trend continue this season his supporters will start to fade.  This is the last season I would pay full price for him unless he takes a step forward.  Shin-Soo Choo went 20-20 in 2009.  He was one of only 7 OFs to accomplish that feat.  His production was more than solid, and in no month did he hit lower than he did in May (.274).  His splits against RHP and LHP are good, so it is not likely that he will lose his starting status to some sort of platoon.

Did Jayson Werth finally prove to all his doubters how good he is?  He stayed healthy all year, started all year, and wound up producing numbers that were worth of much more bid money than he went for in 2009 auctions.  Do not expect him to come so cheap this season.  A word of warning about Werth.  His breakout came late (he is 31 this year), so I would not count him among “core” team members that you want to build a keeper team around.  He’s good, but his shelf life is probably not going to be that long.

Third Tier:  Carlos Lee, Carlos Quentin, Nick Markakis, Andre Ethier, Adam Lind, Torii Hunter, Hunter Pence, Nyjer Morgan, Ben Zobrist, Michael Cuddyer, Michael Bourn, Nate McLouth, Adam Jones, Andrew McCutchen, Josh Hamilton, Brad Hawpe, Denard Span, Juan Pierre, Raul Ibanez, Nolan Reimold, Jermaine Dye, Jason Kubel, Ryan Ludwick

Carlos Lee may be boring, but he is money in the bank.  It appears that his power and speed peaked in 2006, but he is still good for solid production in 4 out of the 5 scoring categories.  Do not underestimate how valuable 20-something HRs is with 100 RBI and a .300 BA.  After all, only 13 outfielders hit .300 in 2009.  Of those 13, only 6 of them hit 20 or more HRs, and of those, only 4 also had 100 RBI.  There is value here.  I like Carlos Quentin to rebound in a big way in 2010. When looking at his injuries and numbers in 2009, that may scare away other GMs.  After all, he still has only one really successful season under his belt.  Realize, however, that his AB/HR ratio remained steady in 2009.  Coming into the season healthy should help him move back into the second tier for 2011.  Nick Markakis may be a little overrated.  He has never topped 23 HRs, both his BB rate and his OBP were the lowest of his career in 2009, and his steals total has dropped drastically since his breakout season in 2007.  Beware of spending too much on him.  There is one big difference between Nyjer Morgan and Michael Bourn.  That is:  Nyjer Morgan has a track record with a good batting average, and Bourn does not.  Like the old saying goes, you can’t steal first base.  Bourn’s increase in batting average for the 2009 season was a surprise.  Don’t be surprised if it sinks significantly lower in 2010.

Ben Zobrist is a nice player, but should be taken at one of the infield positions before his name comes up on the outfield depth chart.  Andre Ethier and Adam Lind are in a similar situation.  Both just had a breakout 2009 in which they hit over 30 HRs.  Lind’s breakout could be real if he sticks to what he did in 2009.  He improved his plate discipline in a big way.  His percentage of balls outside the strike zone swung at dropped significantly, and his walk rate increased as a result.  The Blue Jays appear to be in a rebuilding year, so beware that Lind may not have as much support around him in the lineup as you would like.  Andre Ethier got a shot to play every day in 2009 and made the most of it.  While his BB rate went up, so did his K rate.  His BABIP actually was lower in 2009 than 2008, so perhaps that batting average will rise a bit in 2010.  One potential stumbling block for Ethier is that he has trouble with left-handed pitching (BA vs. LHP: 2008- .243, 2009- .194).

Andrew McCutchen is one of those players that people are hoping to slip by as a sleeper, but there is just no way.  He is going to go for big bucks in auctions as GMs hope to grab the next big power/speed threat.  The fact that he is on the Pirates limits his production in runs and RBI.  If you want a lower-key potential breakout, look to Adam Jones.  He could be this season’s power/speed outfielder, and his numbers from 2009 are not as likely to draw the attention of your competition.  Nolan Reimold may break-out in a similar fashion in 2010.  He has a good BB/K rate, and does not swing at too many balls outside of the strike-zone.  He may even steals bases for you.  This spring, monitor the healthy of his recently operated-on Achilles tendon before you draft him.  Don’t go overboard, since he still has to prove he can hit at the major league level, but a modest bid could pay big dividends.

I am not a believer in Josh Hamilton.  When he was young, there was crazy hype surrounded by injuries and mysterious “personal problems”.  He finally dealt with his issues, and had one monster season.  Then, right back to the injuries with worse performance when he did play.  I don’t care about the night he spent in a bar, and do not think that he is much risk to fall into that lifestyle again.  I care about his ability to hit, which is far from proven.  He could have another good season, but some fantasy baseball magazines I have seen rank him as high as a top 10 outfielder.  The price he will bring for the risk he represents is too high.  Juan Pierre is a full-time player again, and his fantasy value will take a huge rebound.  After filling in very nicely for Manny Ramirez during his suspension, the White Sox are going to let him lead off in 2010.  He can still hit and steal bases, but will cost less than the last time he was a full time player.

Fourth Tier:  Chris Coghlan, Alfonso Soriano, Alex Rios, Marlon Byrd, Vernon Wells, Carlos Gonzalez, Jay Bruce, Johnny Damon, Franklin Gutierrez, Magglio Ordonez, Mike Cameron, Corey Hart, J.D. Drew, Garrett Jones, Julio Borbon, Jeff Francoeur, Carlos Gomez, Milton Bradley, Carlos Beltran, Coco Crisp, Chris Young, Josh Willingham, Kyle Blanks, Mark Teahen, Conor Jackson, Elijah Dukes, Mark DeRosa, Melky Cabrera, David Dejesus, Cody Ross, Rajai Davis, Lastings Milledge, Jose Guillen, Juan Rivera, Matt LaPorta

Chris Coghlan is a nice little player.  He will be overrated in 2010 fantasy baseball drafts, and overpriced too.  To read a complete analysis, read Coghlan’s Player Profile.  Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Beltran both appear to be in decline as well as significant injury risks.  Beltran now finds himself in trouble with the Mets due to a recent surgery which could jeopardize his status for opening day.  Do not pay for their names.  Alex Rios has the confidence of manager Ozzie Guillen.  He should play every day, and will likely rebound a good bit.  His reputation (both on and off the field) has taken a beating over the last year, so you may be able to steal him cheap.  Want a cheap option in the outfield that has both power and speed?  Look to Franklin Gutierrez.  He will fly under the radar at fantasy drafts and auctions, but has his playing time locked it, and can serve as an above average 3rd outfielder.  I am very skeptical of Marlon Byrd.  This guy has a fairly long track record, and 2009 was his first truly good season.  While his batting average has made progress over the last few seasons, the power came from nowhere and his BB rate was his lowest since 2002.

Julio Borbon is going to be one of the unproven players in 2010 auctions that goes for big money.  He may, however, be worth it.  He has been announced as a starter for 2010, and his speed and batting average appear to be for real.  He could even throw in above average power for a speedster in Arlington.  Speaking of potential that will cost you, Carlos Gonzalez put up enough of a stat-line that fantasy GMs are not going to look past him.  Highly touted, Gonzalez put up 13 HR and 16 SB in under 300 ABs.  I am hoping that Carlos Gomez will slip under the radar of my competition.  His batting average could be lower than I would like, but if his price matches, I like the upside he offers with a full-time job for the Brewers.  He is crazy fast, but keep your bidding low since his OBP has been under .300 for three straight seasons.  Kyle Blanks is another player who’s 2009 numbers are mediocre enough that he could slip under the radar.  The kid is huge, has huge power, and will start all season.  Sure, the ballpark and supporting cast hurt his numbers, but you aren’t drafting him to be your #1 outfielder.  As a #3 or 4 he should be above average.

Could this be the season that Jay Bruce finally establishes himself as a true fantasy asset?  Yes, I think so.  While the casual fantasy GM will look at the batting average drop he suffered in 2009, the secondary numbers paint a different picture.  His AB/HR ratio went up, his BB/K rate went up, and his BABIP for 2009 was absurdly low (.222).  If those GMs that loved him have soured on him due to his BA, grab him at a discount.  Power galore.  Conor Jackson had a very odd season in 2009.  He was suffering from valley fever, which is a disease caught from the spores of a desert fungi.  Wow.  He is tearing the cover off of the ball in the off-season, and should pick up where he left off in 2008, a potential breakout with a good BA.  He qualifies as a sleeper this year, since he is being ranked very low in many draft prep articles and fantasy baseball rankings.

Chris Young had a miserable 2009, and that continues a trend of bad news.  For two straight years his power has dropped.  For two straight years his batting average has dropped.  For two straight years, his stolen bases have dropped, his K rate has risen, and his OPS has dropped.  These are all very worrying signs.  Strangely, he did post his major league best BB rate in 2009 (though he didn’t use that to steal a single base after the All-Star Break).  He also picked up the pace in September and October, having his best month of the year.  If you can slip him by, he definitely still has good upside, but I would want him to fall into my lap rather than pay more than a couple dollars.

A similar disappointing season was turned in by Elijah Dukes.  This kid has all the talent in the world, but can’t seem to put it all together.  He is seeing fewer fastballs (49.1%-2009 vs. 56.9%-2008) and this helped him put up the worst K rate of his major league career (20.3%).  Another number of note for Dukes in 2009: 3 SB, 10 CS.  Rajai Davis is another player who’s numbers from 2009 will prevent him from having “sleeper” status in 2010 fantasy baseball auctions.  There is no such thing as a sleeper that put up 40+ stolen bases the season before.  I would like to see his K rate get a little better if he is to bat leadoff, but his minor league numbers support his 2009 batting average.

Fifth Tier: Delmon Young, Luke Scott, Aaron Rowand, Xavier Nady, Nick Swisher, Jack Cust, Gerardo Parra, Jake Fox, Garret Anderson, Randy Winn, Ryan Garko, Willy Taveras, Skip Schumaker, Scott Podsednik, Colby Rasmus, Ryan Church, Chris Dickerson, Kosuke Fukudome, Matt Diaz, Jonny Gomes, Carlos Guillen, Travis Snider, Dexter Fowler, Andruw Jones, Rick Ankiel, Brett Gardner

Andruw Jones was at least productive in 2009.  He has a chance to get even more ABs in 2010, and could improve more.  Gerardo Parra will have to play well to receive playing time in what could become a crowded Arizona outfield, but he has upside.  Scott Podsednik still has a little juice left in his legs.  Just don’t forget that 2009 was his first season with over 215 ABs since 2006.  Chris Dickerson improved his BB/K rate in 2009, and could show more power in 2010.  He is a qualified post-hype sleeper pick if he can manage to get the ABs.  Matt Diaz’ batting average against RHP will keep him from ever truly claiming a full-time gig.  Colby Rasmus has power, but his batting average is a concern, especially against lefties.  Dexter Fowler is a nice sleeper.  His numbers against righties are not great, but he smokes lefties, and will start from day one in 2010.

First Base

—————-

Top Tier : Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, Mark Teixeira

It would be very easy to put Albert Pujols in this tier by himself.  After all, in 99% of fantasy baseball rankings in the world, Pujols will be the overall most valuable player.  There is no need to say anything more than that about the best fantasy commodity in baseball.  Miguel Cabrera is a huge season waiting to happen.  This kid actually reminds me a great deal of Pujols.  He broke into the league at a young age and started producing from day one.  He also has never had what you can call a “bad” season.  He hits for power, drives in runs, and his batting average is awesome.  The only thing Pujols offers that he does not is speed.  Cabrera is that magic age of 27 years old this season.  The other three choices are also fine additions to your team that will provide the offensive power and run production that you can build your team around.

Ryan Howard’s batting average is usually not as good as the other options in the first tier, but his RBI total year to year is awesome.  Prince Fielder has as much power as any of these names, but his final line varies a bit from season to season (HR TOTALS:  2007 – 50, 2008 – 36, 2009 – 46).  If you draft him in a season where he puts it all together, you get one of the best fantasy players in the game.  Finally, we come to Mark Teixeira.  He has power (though has not broken the 40 HR mark in several seasons) and his batting average is consistently high.  If he can just start hitting during April like he does later in the season, he could be a top 10 player (he is a notoriously slow starter).

Second Tier : Justin Morneau, Adrian Gonzalez, Joey Votto, Kevin Youkilis, Kendry Morales, Adam Dunn, Derrek Lee

These options at first base are all quality that you can draft for a cheaper price, but can put up production that help your team greatly.  All, however, have some flaw that keep them out of that top tier.  The name on this list that people are most often going to point to as belonging in the top tier is Adrian Gonzalez.  Coming off of his first 40 HR season, his owners love his ability.  I do too.  What keeps him out of the top tier is two-fold.  Firstly, his batting average and RBI total from year to year is not in the upper echelon of the position.  He has not had a BA over .282 in the last three seasons, and in two of those three seasons his RBI total was under 101.  Also, his ballpark and supporting cast are working against him repeating the power he showed, and his RBI total improving much.  He is quality, but since his price in your auction is likely to be as high as the previous tier, you should let him pass your team by.

Justin Morneau is another name that often is ranked with the top names at first base.  Sure, he puts together a good season now and again, but his final stat line is very different from season to season.  One year he will hit .271, then the next year he will hit .300.  One year he will hit 31 HR, the next he will hit 23.  Even his RBI total varies greatly, ranging from 100 to 129 over the last three seasons.  This unpredictability keeps him in the second tier.  Joey Votto is one of the up-and-comers at first base.  He hit everything that moved in the first half of 2009, with a .351 batting average.  Even in the second half when he cooled off to only .300, his power levels remained just as high as in the first half.  If he can maintain that batting average and power levels (and stay on the field for 550 ABs) he could join the upper level as soon as 2011.

Everyone knows that Adam Dunn has great power, and usually has a bad batting average.  It is that batting average that keeps him in the second tier year after year.  I will not raise him up to the top level because he brought that average up to .267 last season.  Derrek Lee is old, and his resurgent 2009 is no reason to pay the price as though he was back in his prime.  Lee, to me, is one of those players that GMs are going to massively overpay for in 2010 fantasy drafts and auctions.  See my Overrated Fantasy Hitters article for details.  Kendry Morales was a great pickup last season, but I would like to see him repeat those numbers (and boost that runs total) before he is ranked any higher.  I would also like to see him hit better while batting right-handed.  There is a good argument to put him in the third tier instead of the second.

Third Tier : Pablo Sandoval, Victor Martinez, Lance Berkman, Carlos Pena, Billy Butler

There is good upside in this tier.  Both Pablo Sandoval and Billy Butler could take steps forward in 2010 which would seriously upgrade their ranking.  Sandoval swings at everything he sees, but keeps that batting average high.  Butler’s surrounding cast limits his run production upside, and he has yet to show more than 20-something HR power.  He is, however, country strong and a 30 HR season is possible.  Victor Martinez will go for too much bid money or too high a draft pick to use at first base.  Someone will use him at catcher, where is is indeed worth much more.  Carlos Pena sure has power, but that batting average will cost your team some points.  Be careful paying to much for just the HR category.  Poor Big Puma.  Lance Berkman has been very inconsistent over the seasons, and the wheels just completely came off the bus is 2009.  With his lowest RBI and HR total since 2005, Berkman’s price is sure to be reduced in 2010.  I would love to grab him at this reduced price, since he has recovered from similarly poor seasons in his past with monster years the next.

Fourth Tier : James Loney, Jorge Cantu, Paul Konerko, Jose Lopez, Adam LaRoche, Martin Prado, Todd Helton, Garrett Jones, Nick Johnson, Aubrey Huff, Michael Cuddyer,Chris Davis

Look at all this quality talent still around after the “top” 17 options are off the board.  There are really two fantasy baseball strategies for drafting first basemen.  You can use an early draft pick or lots of bid money on a top slugger that will put up huge numbers.  Or you can wait many rounds and pay much less for a player that will produce good-but-not-great numbers, while drafting better players at thiner positions.  If you chose the second strategy, make sure that you get a first baseman that is no lower than this tier.  There are plenty of guys here that will hit you 20ish home runs with a decent batting average and 90ish RBI.  Are they superstars?  No.  However, if you draft someone with that early pick (or large bid) at a thin position (like 2B) that is a superstar and combine their numbers with one of these mediocre 1B options, you can break even with a team that uses the inverse strategy.  Let’s hit the highlights of this tier.

James Loney is consistent, but has failed to take a significant step forward since establishing a baseline of production.  Jorge Cantu has defied the odds to make a nice comeback after two down seasons.  At this point, it appears as though his numbers are reliable though not spectacular.  Garrett Jones is sure to top many fantasy baseball sleeper lists for the 2010.  After hitting 21 home runs in only 314 ABs, plenty of knowledgeable GMs are going to be willing to wait on a first baseman counting on drafting Jones later.

Michael Cuddyer is sure to draw skepticism from fantasy GMs this season.  However, this kid was highly touted when coming into the big leagues, and his numbers were consistent in a month-to-month breakdown of 2009.  While 34 home runs may be a bit much to expect again from Cuddyer in 2010, he is a solid player that can help your team if you grab him late.  Martin Prado is a lower-profile sleeper that has some upside.  Don’t wait too long though, because he does qualify at thiner positions than first base and could be taken at second or third base if you sleep on him.  Do I have to tell you that Nick Johnson is an injury risk?  Jose Lopez was one of only two Mariners that hit more than 20 home runs in 2009.  Like Prado, Lopez can be taken at 2B as well.  Chris Davis was last year’s hot pickup that was overpaid for in leagues everywhere.  Don’t let that be you again this year.  Power potential is great, but a certain bad batting average is awful.  Until he proves he can stick around in the show, contain your excitement (and your bid).

The Rest : Garrett Atkins, Carlos Delgado, Mark DeRosa (10), Mark Teahen (11), Ty Wigginton, Nick Swisher, Hank Blalock, Luke Scott, Russell Branyan, Mike Jacobs, Ryan Garko, Daniel Murphy, Lyle Overbay, Jeff Clement

While there is still upside present in this final tier, you are looking at some longer odds for a breakthrough power season.  In fact, when you get this low in the tiers playing time could start to be an issue.  I am personally not a Chris Davis fan.  There is no questioning that the kid has power, but that walk rate is terrible and the strikeouts come in bunches.  The quickest way for a touted hitter to turn into a fantasy bust is for him to strike out a ton and walk very little.  Garrett Atkins could rebound after a terrible 2009, but how often does a player get better after leaving Colorado?  Carlos Delgado is still looking for a job at the time of this posting, and his age and poor 2009 are working against his fantasy value.  Russell Branyan looked like a resurgence was coming in 2009, but injury derailed his attempt.  I would not bet on such quality production happening again.  Jeff Clement has been jerked around for many seasons, and that could still happen in the crowded first base picture on the Pirates.  Mark DeRosa’s breakout came fairly late in his career.  In that pitcher’s ballpark surrounded by a mediocre cast I doubt his numbers will be as good as in his recent past.