Early Career

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It may seem like Ramirez has been around forever.  In fact, for the majority of GMs, Ramirez will have been among the top of the third base rankings the entire time they have been playing fantasy baseball.  However, he will turn just 32 in the 2010 season.  After three seasons of part time play for the Pirates in 1998-2000, Aramis hit the big time in 2001 posting a .300-34-112 line in 603 ABs.  While he did take a step backward in 2002 when he hit only 18 HR in 522 ABs with a .234 BA, good fortune smiled on him when he was traded to the Chicago Cubs in the 2003 season.

After leaving Pittsburgh for a team that actually takes baseball seriously, Ramirez’ career took off for real.  From 2004-2008 Ramirez did not hit under .288, nor did he hit under 26 home runs for any single season.  In fact, in the first three full seasons playing for the Cubbies, he hit over 30 HRs in each year, setting a new career high twice during that span.  If you take a look at his power while adjusting for ABs, you will find that Aramis has been fairly consistent throughout his career.

Skeptics will point to the fact that his AB/HR rate dropped from 2005-2008, but the reality of the situation is that his rate still places him among the best at the third base position.  With good power, a batting average that is well above average, and over 100 RBI in 6 out of 8 of those seasons, Aramis’ high draft position was well deserved.  Furthermore, in 2001-2008 (the time since he became a full time player barring 2009), note that he stayed fairly healthy, logging only one season with under 500 ABs.

Certain websites I have read refer to the fact that he has played in over 150 games in only 3 seasons, but the fact is that in only one season has he lost enough time to decrease his value in a significant fashion.  His BB/9 Rate has gotten better over his career, and his K/9 rate has ticked up only slightly.  Overall, this track record is one of a hitter that has good plate discipline, good power, good health, and the ability to put up numbers (which while not spectacular) can greatly help your fantasy baseball team.

2009

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In 2009, Aramis Ramirez met with his first serious loss of playing time due to injury since becoming a full-time player.  If you owned him last season, this could sour you on his value for the 2010 fantasy baseball season.  However, if you look closer, you should be even more enamored by his numbers.  Ramirez posted a .317 BA (the second highest of his career), 15 HR, and 65 RBI in only 306 ABs.  Once you do the math, you will see that 2009 was among his best seasons if you adjust for the lack of playing time.  His AB/HR rate was 20.4, his RBI count was still over 100 pro-rating it over a full season, and his OBP was at a career high.  Even his BB/K rate ticked up in this 2009.

These are not signs of a player in decline.  In fact, I find it impressive that despite losing so much playing time to a dislocated shoulder, his power remained largely unaffected, as did his secondary statistics.  With an entire off-season to recover, you can expect that his stats will make a rebound to the levels he has established over the last many seasons.

Fantasy Implications

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This is the year to grab Aramis Ramirez.  In keeper leagues, it is possible that he will be available for the first time in many seasons.  Fantasy GMs that are just casually looking at their fantasy magazines will see that he was hurt, and only hit 15 HRs.  You, on the other hand, know that his AB/HR rate, and other stats did not decline at all.  Fantasy baseball is all about value.  Value is all about perception.  The perception which his 2009 stat-line gives to the casual observer is that his power dropped drastically, and that he was unable to stay healthy.  This should lead to a drop in his price in 2010 fantasy baseball auctions, or position in 2010 fantasy baseball drafts.  Jump on him if you can.

Since you are reading this, you are NOT the casual fantasy baseball observer, and you realize that the steady production should pick up right where it left off.  The batting average is certainly not going anywhere, the power has remained above average, and his potential to drive in 100 runs is high.  He could easily put up a season similar to Ryan Zimmerman or Evan Longoria, or Kevin Youkilis at a much lower price.  If he is available on your draft board late (which he probably will be), do not hesitate to draft him understanding that the decline in his numbers is only on the surface.

AB/HR

1. Randy Ruiz  (DH) TOR – 11.50
2. Albert Pujols  (1B) STL – 12.09
3. Russell Branyan  (1B) SEA – 13.90
4. Nelson Cruz  (OF) TEX – 14.00
5. Jonny Gomes  (OF) CIN – 14.05
6. Kyle Blanks  (OF) SD – 14.08
7. Garrett Jones  (1B) PIT – 14.95
8. Mark Teixeira  (1B) NYY – 15.62
9. Jay Bruce  (OF) CIN – 15.68
10. Jason Werth  (OF) PHI – 15.86
11. Ryan Rayburn  (OF) DET – 16.31
12. Rickie Weeks  (2B) MIL – 16.33
13. Kendry Morales  (1B) LAA – 16.65
14. Carlos Quentin  (OF) CWS – 16.71
15. Adam Lind  (OF) TOR – 16.77
16. Miguel Olivo  (C) KC – 16.96
17. Troy Tulowitzki  (SS) COL – 16.97
18. Ian Stewart  (3B) COL – 17.00
19. Josh Willingham  (OF) WAS – 17.79
20. Luke Scott  (OF) BAL – 17.96
21. Chris Iannetta (C) COL – 18.06
22. Dan Uggla  (2B) FLA – 18.19
23. Ian Kinsler  (2B) TEX – 18.26
24. Chase Utley  (2B) PHI – 18.42
25. Ryan Zimmerman  (3B) WAS – 18.48
26. Ben Zobrist (2B) TB – 18.56
27. Chris Davis  (1B) TEX – 18.62
28. Jake Fox (3B) OAK – 19.64
29. Landon Powell  (C) OAK – 20.00
30. Laynce Nix  (OF) CIN – 20.60
31. Juan Rivera  (OF) LAA – 21.16
32. Carlos Gonzalez (OF) COL – 21.38
33. Seth Smith (OF) COL – 22.33
34. Pablo Sandoval (3B) SF – 22.88
35. Matt Kemp (OF) LAD – 23.31
36. Will Venable  (OF) SD – 24.42
37. Robinson Cano  (2B) NYY – 25.48
38. Vladimir Guerrero  (DH) LAA – 25.53
39. Gordon Beckham  (2B) CWS – 27.00
40. Nick Markakis  (OF) BAL – 35.67

At the top of the list is Randy Ruiz.  This career minor leaguer has been bouncing around in the minors since 1999.  The poor guy has had 16 different teams over the years (and two different stints at two of the same places).  He swatted 10 HRs in 115 ABs with the big club in 2009.  He has shown decent power in the minors, but is already 31 years old so the odds are long he will contribute.  Check back later in the spring to see if he will actually play, but keep him on your radar.

Kyle Blanks is another name that jumps out at me from that list.  They love him in San Diego, and I expect him to play regularly in 2010.  He has power, but like every Padre, his upside is limited by the team around him and his home ballpark.  Hope that he has a so-so spring and you can grab him cheap.

It is good to see that Carlos Quentin is still high up on that list.  After a huge 2008, Quentin’s season was cut in half by injury.  His numbers were not the same as his breakout season, but they were similar enough to gamble on.  While his season totals were down, his AB/HR ratio only went from 13.33 to 16.71.  Hopefully, you can get him at a discount in your league and ride the rebound to 30+ home runs in 2010.

Another name you should pick out of this list is Jake Fox.  He is the likely starter at third base in Oakland, and showed good power in limited action in 2009.  His minor league numbers make this believable, but it looks like he won’t be a high average type hitter.  Even in the minors his average was mediocre and his OBP was on the low side.

There are always one or two of those second half gems out there.  Players that didn’t really get any playing time until fairly late in the season, but wound up being productive regulars.  This is exactly what you should be looking for.  Players that have a good chance to produce above their reputation or price, but that came along late enough that most of your competition didn’t notice them last year.  Face it, in most leagues there are about half the teams that stop paying attention when they think they are out of it.  Garrett Jones is one of these players.  Because of that, you may be able to sneak this guy by cheap and late if you are in a deep league and it looks as though he will start.  Don’t expect a high average, but 20 HRs is obviously possible.

Check out the previous edition of Stats You Need to Know