Russell Martin  (C – LAD) –  Four to six weeks?  Ugh.  Those of you waiting to get Martin at a discount this year will get an even bigger one if you are willing to gamble on the health of his groin.  This puts the best case scenario have Martin starting the season on the D.L., and realistically missing the first 3-4 weeks of the season.  Of course, groin injuries can be tricky, and can be easily re-agrivated.  When you are talking about a catcher who has to spend so much time in a crouch, that becomes a serious issue.  Not to mention, a good portion of the value Martin has to offer is that his speed is well above average for a catcher.  A leg injury could depress his stolen base numbers for a significant portion of the season.  Downgrade him significantly on your cheat sheets.

Torii Hunter  (OF – LAA) –  Speaking of groin injuries, Torii Hunter just re-agrivated his while sliding into second base.  Details on how serious it is are upcoming.  Outfielders use their legs a lot too, and the Angels can’t afford to lose Hunter for a long stretch of time.  I would expect them to be careful with their Gold Glove center fielder.

Ian Desmond  (SS – WAS) –  One of the more interesting position battles in 2010’s spring training is going on for the starting shortstop position on the Nationals.  Christian Guzman’s experience and veteran status make him the frontrunner, but he is still dealing with an arm injury (and let’s face it, he isn’t that awesome when healthy).  Meanwhile, Ian Desmond is getting jerked around.  It looked like they were going to let him start at second base until the team signed Adam Kennedy, and now Desmond is fighting for a spot on the roster.  Desmond offers a blend of power and speed, and the ability to hit for average and take a walk.  Fantasy GM’s should track this battle closely, as Desmond could be a nice sleeper if he can win the job.

Angel Guzman  (RP – CHC) –  It looks like Guzman is headed for shoulder surgery, and the race is on for the setup role in the Cub bullpen.  John Grabow and Jeff Gray are the likely candidates to set up for closer Carlos Marmol.  This is good news for Marmol owners, as his leash just got even longer should he struggle again in 2010.

Josh Fields  (3B/OF – KC) –  Alex Gordon broke his thumb and will miss about a month of action.  While he should come back and re-claim the starting third base job, this gives Josh Fields a chance to prove that his bat belongs somewhere in the lineup.  Even if Gordon steps right back in at third, a solid month of production from Fields should give him a step up on the other outfielders on the team that are fighting for playing time.

Joe Nathan  (RP – MIN) –  Going for an MRI.  Uh oh.  Stay tuned for details, Matt Guerrier is the favorite for saves should Nathan miss the start of the season.

Q:  Is Francisco Liriano’s good off-season performance going to continue against big league hitters?

Francisco Liriano is sure to be on many 2010 fantasy baseball sleeper lists.  His phenomenal potential which he displayed in 2006 is not going to just be forgotten.  Though his numbers in 2009 were awful, smart and attentive GMs will know that he has been throwing very well this off-season.  Reportedly hitting 95 mph, he posted a .186 BAA with a 1.54 ERA and .86 WHIP in the Dominican Winter League.  Now, we have to be aware that Liriano’s winter ball numbers are an extremely small sample size (11.7 IN).  Every pitcher goes through stretches where they seem to be untouchable, and certainly 12 innings is not enough to decide that Liriano is back to form.  However, if he comes into spring training and starts putting up similar ratios against tougher competition, he could be a gem for those of us that have paid close enough attention.

Q:  Is Brandon Wood ready to hit at the major league level?

I have been waiting for Brandon Wood to get a legitimate shot at a starting job for several seasons now.  It is very likely that you have been too.  However, you have to be aware that when he popped onto our radars, the picture we had in our heads was of a 40+ home run hitting shortstop.  Now that he will be playing third base, part of that value is gone.  Also, his K/BB rate has seen little progress in his limited major league ABs.  With the starting job all but handed to him for 2010, this spring should give us a little view of what could be coming.  If he continues to strike out much more than walk, I will greatly reduce the price I am willing to pay.  If he makes some progress, I would bump him up on my sleeper list.

Q:  Was David Ortiz’ power outage an aberration or the beginnings of a decline?

When talking purely about power, spring training is not really something for which we are going to get a definitive answer.  After all, many of the ABs that David Ortiz will receive this spring will be against pitchers that are not ready to face major league hitters.  A couple of 85 mph fastballs at the wrong time could result in home runs that taint the sample we get to see from a power hitter.  Supposedly, Ortiz has been pulling the ball more in recent seasons, and an opposite field approach could help his numbers.  With a failed PED test, there is reason to believe that hitting the ball to left field is not the real reason his power numbers have dropped.

Q:  Will Grady Sizemore return to put up numbers close to his past 30-30 performance?

With two separate surgeries in 2009, I am willing to chalk Grady Sizemore’s poor numbers up to injury.  Yet, a smart fantasy GM will have to accept that the risk of injury is increased.  Also, it is very possible that there could be some residual decline due to last year’s problems.  A elbow injury could continue to affect his power, and a groin injury could keep him from running as much.  This is in addition to the fact that the Indians are offensively terrible.  A reduction in the number of runs he will score should be assumed.  With Sizemore moving to the second slot in the batting order, his RBI total may improve, but that is far from assured.  He is young enough to return to elite status, but fantasy GMs should be a little skeptical until they see him playing without restriction.

Q:  How will Matt LaPorta find the ABs he needs to break-out in 2010?

The addition of Russell Branyan has put a haze around the role of one of 2010’s biggest fantasy baseball sleepers.  When Branyan first signed, I along with most baseball people assumed that he would be filling a part time or DH role.  However, Manny Acta said that Branyan has the inside track on the starting first base job.  Most of us assumed that Matt LaPorta would get the shot that we have been waiting for him to get.  Now it appears as though he will either have to win a job in the outfield (likely at the expense of Michael Brantley) or have Branyan stumble early to get a full season of ABs.  Personally, I am skeptical that Branyan can stay both healthy and effective for long stretches of time, so LaPorta should get his shot.

Q:  What the heck is the Royals starting lineup going to look like?

This is not an easy question, as their roster contains a ton of players that have been starters in the past, and also many players that have the potential to be better than those starters.  Players such as Rick Ankiel, Alberto Callaspo, Yuniesky Betancourt, and David Dejesus have held starting jobs before.  They had better produce, however, because the off-season has seen the addition of Josh Fields and Chris Getz.  That, combined with the return of Mike Aviles, could drastically change that starting lineup.  Another large question is how much faith they have in Alex Gordon.  With Fields able to play both third base and the outfield (not that his defense is very good at either position), there are not many players other than Billy Butler that should feel their job is safe.

Q:  Is Alfonso Soriano’s knee healthy?

You should get the visions of a return to 40-40 form out of your head right now (even 30-30 is just ridiculous).  With the injuries Alfonso Soriano has suffered, it is unclear how much of the decline in his numbers is due to those ailments and how much is due to an eroding skill set.  Having a bad knee certainly reduces his stolen base potential, and it is not hard to imagine that it has drained part of his power as well.  Reports out of Cubs camp are that his knee is not yet 100%, but it is better than it was last season.  The question is how much better, and will he be able to make a rebound in 2010?  Spring training could give us a little insight into how much he will be worth (or should be discounted) in 2010 fantasy baseball auctions and drafts.  At the least we should see how healthy he really is.

Q:  Who will win the starting center-field job for the Reds?

I briefly covered this situation in the latest Quick Fix article.  While no one will deny that Chris Dickerson has the tools to develop into a quality major league hitter, Drew Stubbs greatly outperformed him when given the chance in 2009.  Dusty Baker has come forward and said that Stubbs deserves to play because of that performance.  If Dickerson can prove that he has rediscovered the power that left him last year, he could push the issue.  However, at this point it seems that Stubbs is the frontrunner.

Q:  Will Jay Bruce learn to hit lefties?

The reality is that the spring will probably not give us enough information to answer this question, but you should be aware that this is the major stumbling block Jay Bruce has met with in his young career.  We all know that he has massive power potential in his bat, but that alone is not enough to justify the large price which he is sure to command.  After hitting .190 against lefties in 2008 and .210 in 2009, he still has work to do in order to keep his overall BA from hurting fantasy teams.  That said, he proved that he can hit in the minor leagues, and is still young enough to have those skills translate into major league ability.

Third Base

——————–

Top Tier: Alex Rodriguez

Despite the fact that Alex Rodriguez did not put up the best numbers at third base in 2009, I still rank him a the top of this position.  He could explode for a monster season in any given year, and should still be considered as one of the top overall fantasy commodities.  He has more power than any other option except for Reynolds, still steals bases, and is a lock for 100 RBI.  Even with all of the quality options in the second tier, none of them is the complete package that is the Almighty A-Rod.

Second Tier: Evan Longoria, Ryan Zimmerman, Kevin Youkilis, Mark Reynolds, David Wright, Pablo Sandoval, Michael Young, Aramis Ramirez, Chone Figgins

Evan Longoria is certainly coming along nicely.  He made nice progress with his BB/K rate in 2009 and should continue to be ranked among the top third basemen for years to come.  But then when you look at Ryan Zimmerman, you realize that he may be almost the same player.  When you look at his stats from 2009, they are every bit as good (if not better) than Evan Longoria’s.  In fact, Longoria and Zimmerman put up an OPS within 2 points of each other in 2009 (Longoria – .890, Zimmerman – .889).  His AB/HR rate is not quite as good as Longoria’s, but if you can get Zimmerman at a discount he could be just as valuable to your fantasy baseball team.  Kevin Youkilis just had his second quality season in a row with an OPS over .900 (2009 – .961 : higher than Longoria or Zimmerman!).  His batting average is very nice, and his AB/HR rate over the last two seasons has been almost identical (2008 – 18.6, 2009 – 18.2 AB/HR).  With the table-setters he has hitting in front of him, expect the RBIs to continue as well.  If your league discounts him at all because he has not actually hit the 30 HR plateu, grab him.

When it comes to Mark Reynolds, you have to remember that no matter how much you bid, or how early you take him, last year’s monster season will not count for 2010.  It can easily be argued that Reynolds should be placed in the top tier after his awesome 2009, but a repeat is nowhere near certain.  It was his first season hitting over 40 HR, so a correction is likely, and I do not think the SBs will last.  For a complete analysis of why I think Reynolds is overrated, see my Overrated Fantasy Hitters article.  Just as I believe that Reynolds’ numbers are likely to regress toward his previous stats, I believe that David Wright is likely to rebound in 2010.  Do I think he will hit 30 HRs while playing half his games in Citi-Field?  No.  But somewhere in the low-to-mid 20s is certainly doable.  A rebound to 20-100-30-90-.310 is not very hard to believe.  I would take that in a second if people sleep on Wright.  I devoted a complete article with stats and analysis as to why.  Click here to read it.

Pablo Sandoval is amazing.  Even when he swings at balls outside the strike zone, Sandoval’s contact rate is over 75%.  If his power grows just a little more he could wind up being something special.  However, the supporting cast in San Francisco and the ballpark are working against his run and RBI totals, so it is worth discounting his price just a dollar or two.  Michael Young’s 2009 stat-line is crazy.  He hit for a career high batting average and had the best AB/HR rate of his career.  Strangely enough, he had his lowest RBI total since 2002.  He rebounded in the second half of the season, having the same number of RBI as in the first half, but in 147 fewer ABs.  He showed that he is not done yet, and someone that can give you 600+ ABs with a batting average around .315 is just huge for your team.

Chone Figgins found a new home on the Mariners, and should keep stealing his bases.  Funny that the one thing the Mariners knew they had was a leadoff hitter (Ichiro) and they signed another one instead of a power bat.  Beware, since they did not have much power, Figgy may not even hit the 100 runs mark in 2010.  Just because Aramis Ramirez only hit 15 HR in 2009, don’t discount him too much.  His AB/HR rate and RBI total were right on target with his career averages.  His batting average remained high (.317), and he even set a new career high in OBP (.389).  If he is healthy, he could easily rebound to be as good as any of these other options in 2010.

Third Tier:  Chipper Jones, Jorge Cantu, Gordon Beckham, Jhonny Peralta, Casey Blake, Adrian Beltre

The third tier may be small, but it is comprised of fairly safe bets.  Will they put up huge numbers?  Most likely not.  However, each of these options are safe enough that you can depend on them to play the entire season (barring injury of course).  Chipper Jones is not the superstar he once was, but should be good for a plus batting average and 20-something home runs.  Jorge Cantu has bounced back from a couple of slow seasons to prove that he is a major league regular.  Jhonny Peralta and Casey Blake are both options that aren’t flashy, but can offer a 20-90 season with a decent batting average.

Gordon Beckham has upside for sure, however he could wind up being the most expensive option in the tier in 2010 fantasy baseball auctions since his upside is so high.  Disclaimer: I have a weakness for Adrian Beltre.  In Boston I feel that he could rebound significantly.  A good lineup around him and a ballpark where he can pull the ball into the Green Monster 60 times a season is just what the doctor ordered for his fantasy value.

Fourth Tier: Casey McGehee, Martin Prado, Placido Polanco, Ian Stewart, Mark Teahen, Jake Fox, Mark DeRosa, Troy Glaus

Unlike the third tier, the guaranteed production in the fourth tier is not above average.  However, there are a few options in this tier possessing enough upside to make them the better choice if they come much cheaper (which many of them will).  I particularly like Casey McGehee.  He showed good power (but not so drastic that your competition will be falling over themselves to get him) and also a very good batting average.  With a solid lineup around him he could develop into nice fantasy asset.  Martin Prado will probably be taken at second base before the players at third are this thin, but he should play all year.  I am a little skeptical about his power, but if cheap he is worth the gamble.

Jake Fox will get his chance to be a full-time player in 2010.  The ballpark is not one I would want my sleeper to play in, but you could do worse at the hot corner.  Troy Glaus will man first base in 2010 for the Braves.  His health will always be an issue, but 20 HR (probably with the usual poor BA) could be yours cheap.  Placido Polanco – steady but mediocre.  I do not expect that Mark DeRosa will hit for as much power as we have come to expect playing half his games in San Francisco.

The Rest: Garrett Atkins, Brandon Inge, Brandon Wood, Chris Davis, Edwin Encarnacion, Ty Wigginton, Jeff Baker, Emilio Bonifacio, Josh Fields, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Chase Headley, David Freese, Alex Gordon

As usual, when we are in the bottom tier, playing time is an issue for many of these options.  The steadier ones may be predictable, but they are unspectacular in their level of production.  Kevin Kouzmanoff, Chase Headley, and Ty Wigginton are the safest of these options, but none possess a large amount of upside.  Headley has put up two seasons where his numbers were very similar after accounting for the difference in ABs.  The Padres do not have much hitting outside of Adrian Gonzalez (and maybe Kyle Blanks), so a large jump in RBI or runs is doubtful.  However, he should gain over 500 ABs as a regular starter.  Ty Wigginton is a perennial waiver-wire pickup that has to fight for playing time every year, but usually winds up posting numbers that can be helpful to a fantasy team.  In 2009, his numbers took a hit, as he posted half the number of HRs for which he is usually dependable.   Much like Headley, Kouzmanoff could wind up playing all year, but his fantasy numbers are less than excellent.  He does possess some power, but his OBP and batting average have not shown any improvement over the last three seasons.  The best thing that could happen to his fantasy value would be a trade out of San Diego.

Everyone loved Chris Davis for 2009.  In my two keeper leagues, he was protected for way more than I would have considered smart.  He has plenty of power, but strikes out a ton and may have playing time issues in 2010.  Garrett Atkins could recover from his awful 2009, but leaving Colorado is not a formula for a hitter to improve.  Expect a slight recovery, but not a resurgence back to his prime.  Even if Brandon Inge is able to duplicate the power he showed in 2009, that batting average is brutal.  He can’t hit lefties.  Josh Fields does offer some upside in 2010 if he can win some playing time.  Alex Gordon also has upside, but with the current makeup of the Royals’ roster, he and Gordon could be fighting for one position if David Dejesus holds onto the left field job.  The sleeper of the bunch is Brandon Wood.  Sure, everyone knows his name because he has been a sleeper for years.  However, it looks like the Angels feel he is ready for a full time job.  They said the same thing about Kendry Morales last season and look at the results.  If you get down this low without a third baseman, you may as well go for the upside.