Shortstop

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Top Tier : Hanley Ramirez

There are those in the second tier at shortstop that may put up studly seasons here and there, but there is only one Hanley Ramirez.  With power, speed, and average, he remains alone at the top of the heap.  I would really love to see what he could do with a better lineup around him and a better hitter’s park to call home.  Regardless, he is guaranteed fantasy baseball gold, and should be considered as one of the top 2 or 3 commodities overall.

Second Tier : Jimmy Rollins, Troy Tulowitzki, Derek Jeter, Jose Reyes, Jason Bartlett, Ben Zobrist

Jimmy Rollins was a fantasy team killer in the first half of 2009.  With a crazy rebound in the second half, his end of the year stat line was still worth a hefty bid.  He still has power and will still steal bases.  The Phillie lineup is as good as ever, and Rollins has shown the pedigree in his past to believe that his batting average could rebound in a huge way in 2010.  If you can get him at a discount, jump.  Troy Tulowitzki also had a slow start to 2009.  In fact, in one of my keeper leagues his owner offered him up in every deal he proposed for over a month.  He couldn’t move Tulo, and now he is really happy about it.  While I do not believe that he will match his 2009, he is still worth your bid money.  Just don’t go overboard.

Derek Jeter has been doing it for years, but 2009 was his first truly excellent fantasy season since 2006.  As a Yankee fan I love him.  As a fantasy GM that loves to win, I pass.  His name and the fact that his numbers took an uptick in 2009 are going to drive his price through the roof.  For a complete breakdown and analysis as to why I feel Jeter is going to be priced too high, see my Overrated Fantasy Hitters article.

Jose Reyes may be the superstar who saw his value decrease the most due to his poor and injury-riddled 2009 season.  He was a top 4 pick in 2009 snake drafts, and commanded huge bid money in fantasy baseball auctions.  Hamstring problems (let alone ones that require surgery like Reyes’ did) are a huge problem for players who’s primary fantasy asset is speed.  It is the classic high risk/reward decision.  If Reyes is healthy, he will likely pick up where he left off.  Which is as one of the best fantasy players in the game.  If these injuries resurface, he could lose valuable ABs to the disabled list.  Someone in your league will be willing to pay for him as if 2009 never happened.  Don’t be that guy.  Adjust his price to reflect the risk you are taking, and don’t chase him past that point.

Ah, now we come to the two names that people will have a problem with being placed so high in this report.  Jason Bartlett had one of the largest upticks in value due to his monster 2009.  He turned the corner from no-power, semi-speedster who had a decent batting average into a moderate power, high-batting average, good-speed, potential leadoff hitter.  For a complete analysis, see Mike D’s Jason Bartlett Player Profile.

Ben Zobrist completely rebuilt his swing.  You have seen the results.  The power he has shown is way above average for a shortstop (he had 13 games at short in 2009), and his production was fairly consistent month-to-month last year.  If your league allows you to draft him at short, you may be able to catch your competition napping, and grab him after the known elite options are gone.  For more Zobrist analysis, see the complete breakdown in his Player Profile.

Third Tier : Alexei Ramirez, Ryan Theriot, Miguel Tejada, Elvis Andrus, Jhonny Peralta, Stephen Drew, Asdrubal Cabrera, Alcides Escobar

This is a very interesting tier with some players that could breakout or rebound.  Alexei Ramirez was supposed to be the breakout shortstop in 2009.  After putting up a nice power/speed combination in 480 ABs in 2008, fantasy baseball GMs broke out their wallets to pay for the upside he offered.  They had to be very disappointed when Ramirez went on to decline in most scoring categories, though having 62 more ABs than he had in 2008.  However, there is reason to still like the youngster.  He watched his batting average go down from .290 to .277, yet his OBP went up from .317 to .333 and his BB/K rate improved drastically.  Now that the hype has settled a bit and his price has lowered, this could be the season where your moderate investment pays huge dividends.

There are four shortstops in this tier who’s main asset is their speed.  Ryan Theriot has seen his batting average jump around from .266 to .307, but his stolen base production has remained consistent.  He is not an option that is going to blow you away in any single category (not even SBs), but should give you some help in each.  If you are looking for speed, Elvis Andrus or Alcides Escobar may be better choices.  This pair of young shortstops are similar in that their organization did not want to wait to put them in the lineup.  Andrus forced Michael Young over to third base in 2009, and we were able to see why almost immediately.  While his batting average was nothing awesome, his OBP as acceptable, and his stolen base total is sure to keep his price in 2010 fantasy baseball auctions high.  Similarly, Alcides Escobar forced the Brewers to completely hose J.J. Hardy.  Hardy started slow in 2009, and despite his past success, they sent him to the minors for contract reasons (and to see what Escobar had to offer).  As it turns out, Escobar showed them enough to let J.J. Hardy leave town.  At the minor league level, Escobar proved himself to be a high-average hitter and good stolen base threat, yet his BB/K rate dropped dramatically upon reaching the show.  Like the other two speed guys we discussed, he does not have much in the way of power, but he could easily wind up in the leadoff spot for much of 2010.

Finally, we come to Asdrubal Cabrera.  He is a strange case, and I have to admit that I am not sure what to think about him.  With the batting average and stolen base total he put up in 2009 (.308 BA, 17 SB), he is not going to slip under your opponent’s radar.  In the minors, he was not a huge stolen base threat.  His minor league high was 23 in 2007, but in no other year in his 6 year minor league career did he steal more than 12.  Another crazy number that pops out of his minor league stats is his BB/K rate.  At some stops it is close to or over 1.0.  At other stops he struck out 3-4 times more than he walked.  I want to be able to predict what the players I draft  will do, and all of these wild cards in Cabrera’s history, plus the higher price tag he will command in 2010 make me want to let someone else pay for his services in 2010.

Miguel Tejada is older than when you could expect great numbers, but not so old that he can’t help your fantasy team.  His average should remain high, and his power is not yet completely gone.  Just be sure to bid on him as though he is in the third tier, not any higher.  Many GMs were expecting Stephen Drew to take a big step forward in 2009.  Needless to say, the step he took was backward.  The good news is that his batting average did not drop all the way back to his 2007 total of .238, and that his BB/K rate actually improved over his great 2008 season.  I would expect that his power will grow a bit more, but it looks as though he will not be a consistent BA asset.  There is upside here, but we have been waiting on this upside to show up for a few years now.  He could be a nice buy-low candidate.

Fourth Tier :  Orlando Cabrera, Yunel Escobar, Marco Scutaro, Everth Cabrera, Erik Aybar, Rafael Furcal, J.J. Hardy, Edgar Renteria, Clint Barmes, Mike Aviles

There is a ton of mediocre, but steady production in this tier.  Orlando Cabrera has hit either 8 or 9 HRs in the last five seasons.  Yet his stolen base total has dropped every season since 2006.  Perhaps this is why he is still a free agent at the time of this posting.  His batting average is still worth while, but his lack of upside should keep your bid reasonable.  Yunel Escobar is another steady but uninspiring option.  He is another player (like O. Cabrera) that will help you in batting average, but put up mediocre production in all the other categories.    Marco Scutaro was a perennial waiver-wire pickup before 2009.  After putting up a decent season (12 HR, 14 SB, 100 R, .282 BA) and his team change to the Red Sox, his price is sure to rise.  He could wind up putting up a similar stat-line in 2010, but I would rather take a safer bet for the price he will go for.  Poor Rafael Furcal.  He was a fantasy gem for the first couple seasons he spent in the bigs.  Now he is an extreme injury risk, and even when healthy has not put up the same numbers GMs associate with his name.  He has the potential to return to his former self, but his injury risk should temper your bid.  Take a look at Everth Cabrera.  He may be available late, he played well in his first major league ABs (.342 OBP, 25 SB).  He was fast enough to steal 73 bases 2008, and he should be on your radar.  Be aware though, last year were his first ABs over A-ball.

There is some upside in this tier that you should note.  J.J. Hardy (as we covered above) was shipped out of town to make way for a younger player.  I see this as an opportunity to buy him low.  His BB/K rate was almost the same as his previous seasons, and his contact rate was only slightly lower than normal.  The one stat that stands out to me is that his BABIP in 2009 was the lowest it had been since his rookie season (2009 BABIP – .264).  It is no secret that he was upset with his former team for the way they played with his career, and the change of scenery should help him.  Another name that you may be able to slip by your fellow league members is Mike Aviles.  After putting up stellar numbers in 2008, Aviles was injured early in 2009 and wound up missed almost the entire season.  While I do not believe that he will return all the way to that .325 BA he recorded in 2008, he should be able to find enough playing time and give you enough production to make him worth grabbing cheap or late.  Wow, Clint Barmes made a huge recovery in 2008 and 2009 from his tragic deer meat accident that derailed his career years ago.  Finally making good on his potential, his 23 HRs were by far a career high.  His batting average leaves something to be desired, and he may have to still compete for playing time should he slump.  If you draft him, you should also count on those SBs declining since he was caught stealing in 10 out of his 22 attempts in 2009.  Be careful here, and do not bid as though 20 HRs is assured.

The Rest : Bobby Crosby, Maicer Izturis, Luis Valbuena, Emilio Bonifacio, Cliff Pennington, Christian Guzman, Willie Bloomquist, Khalil Greene, Tommy Manzella, Ian Desmond, Alex Gonzalez, Juan Uribe, Yuniesky Betancourt, Brendan Harris, Cesar Izturis, Julio Lugo, Paul Janish

There are lots of names down here that are unpredictable.  Many of these names have some potential, but do not have assured playing time.  When you get this low on the depth chart at shortstop, concentrate on those players that will get the ABs.  You do not want to draft someone and depend on an injury to the starter for your player’s production to match your bid.  Ian Desmond should start the season with a full time job.  He has some pop in his bat, but is completely unproven.  Luis Valbuena still has to win a job, but showed that he can hit a bit, but his playing time is not certain. Tommy Manzella could wind up the starter in Houston.  He hit .299 in the last two seasons in the minors and can steal a base (but probably not a ton of them).  Playing time could be an issue for Macier Izturis, but he can hit, and should find enough ABs to help your team.  Do not expect a rebound from Khalil Greene.  He was never that great to begin with, and his mental issues could resurface at any time.  The Cardinals wanted to go with Julio Lugo instead.  That should tell you all you need to know.

Second Base

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Top Tier:  Chase Utley, Ian Kinsler, Brian Roberts

It is clear that Chase Utley is great across the board.  He offers consistent production in all categories and will be taken fairly early in the first round of snake drafts.  Ian Kinsler critics will point to his injury history and poor batting average and say he is overrated.  I will point to a kid who: went 30-30 in his 4th season, has seen his RBI total grow in every year, showed he could hit for average in 2008 (.313), and is just a monster fantasy season waiting to happen.  I would happily sacrifice some of those home runs for a .300 batting average, since the kid clearly tries to hit home runs too often.  However, 30-30 from a second baseman is huge for a fantasy team and should not be passed by without some serious consideration.  When people say that his batting average sucked, point to his .245 BABIP in 2009.  Bad luck played a part in his .253 BA in 2009.

I moved Brian Roberts back and forth from the first tier to the second a few times.  While I would take either of the other players in the top tier before him, I would take him before any of the players in the second tier.  He muscled up in 2009 (hopefully without any “help” this time) and hit 16 HRs, and drove in a career high 79 runs.  While his stolen base total has dropped from 50 in 2007, to 40 in 2008, to 30 in 2009, a 16-30 season with 100 runs and a good batting average is quality production from a second baseman.  I would expect that power to decline a bit in 2010, but if those SBs tick back up you will still get quality.  He is just so dependable, that adds some value in my eyes.

Second Base: Dustin Pedroia, Aaron Hill, Robinson Cano, Brandon Phillips, Ben Zobrist, Dan Uggla

Still very nice options are available to you in the second tier, however it would be tough for me to pass up on a great first baseman late in the first round for one of these options.  Look at it this way:  I would pass up on Mark Teixeira if it meant landing Utley or maybe even Kinsler because second base is so thin.  I would not pass up Tex for Hill or Pedrioa even despite the position scarcity factor.  Would you?

Dustin Pedroia can hit.  That batting average is for real and you can expect it to continue.  However the lack of power development makes me think that he will not take the step forward to join the upper tier.  While I have no doubt that somewhere along the way he will have a career year, it does not look like he is going to make a run at the 30-30 club on a regular basis.  Especially disturbing was that his stolen base percentage dropped drastically last year.  In 2008 he stole 20 bases and was caught once.  In 2009 he stole 20 bases and was caught 8 times.  They may not let him run as much if he starts making outs on the base-paths again in 2010.  If that happens, then he is just a 20ish home run hitter with a good BA.  Wow, what to say about Aaron Hill?  The power is alluring.  Yet paying for it is a huge gamble.  It is going to cost a huge amount of bid money or a fairly early pick to land Hill, and his HR total in 2009 looks like an outlier of a season.  If you want a complete analysis (which you should if you are considering keeping or drafting him), see my Overrated Fantasy Hitters article.

Robinson Cano saw his power spike in 2009, which was a welcome step forward from those GMs that have been waiting.  His batting average made a complete recovery, and Cano scored over 100 runs for the first time in his career.  However, Cano’s track record suggests that paying as if another increase in power is coming would be a waste of bid money.  In the first four seasons of his career, Cano failed to break the 20 HR mark.  In 2009, Cano hit twice as many home runs in the new Yankee Stadium than during 2008 in the old stadium.  With the change in the ballpark, he could hold onto that gain, but expecting more power to develop may be asking too much.  If you can get Cano on the cheap side, he is a great commodity.  I would like to see him hit around 25 home runs again before I am willing to pay the price he will command in 2010 fantasy auctions and drafts.

I like Ben Zobrist.  I believe that his production will continue, and his breakout was so unlikely that your competition may hesitate to take him as early as his production warrants.  For a complete breakdown on why I feel this way, check out Fantasy Baseball Addiction’s Ben Zobrist Player Profile.  It is unlike me to be drawn to such an unproven player, but I am. Brandon Phillips is underrated in fantasy circles.  All he has done is go 20-20 or better for three straight seasons.  Sure, his batting average is not awesome, but that is a small complaint compared to the production he offers in the other categories.  Your fellow GMs may not notice this, but Phillips also drove in 98 runs in 2009.  Dan Uggla is the Adam Dunn of second base.  While Dunn offers 40 HR power and a bad batting average at the deeper positions of OF or 1B, Uggla offers 30 HR power with a bad batting average at the thiner second base.  There is value here, and he could always put up a good batting average season one of these years.

Third Tier:  Jose Lopez, Placido Polanco, Gordon Beckham, Ian Stewart, Martin Prado, Orlando Hudson, Rickie Weeks, Casey McGehee (22), Kaz Matsui, Chris Getz, Luis Castillo, Alberto Callaspo, Asdrubal Cabrera (28)

After reading the names in the third tier, you can probably see why second base is such a thin position in 2010.  Sure, there are a few that have upside.  Yet any single one of them could wind up a disappointment for fantasy owners.  The most predictable of the group are Jose Lopez and Placido Polanco.  Lopez has increased his home run output in four straight seasons, and set a career high in HR and RBI in 2009.  He does not possess the OBP that could indicate more is to come, but he has managed to keep his batting average at respectable levels in 3 of the last 4 seasons.  Polanco is another fairly safe bet.  Yet, it is a “safe” bet because the lack of upside and mediocre numbers safe players will put up make GMs look for other options that could wind up giving them more.  While he set a new career high for RBI in 2009, that career high is only 72.  That is the downside of the safe choice.  So it is up to you to scout the other options this late, and decide if the risk of them completely sucking (let’s say like Alexi Casilla or Emmanuel Burriss did in 2009) is worth passing up nice power from Lopez or 550 ABs of a good batting average from Polanco.

I am going to be keeping an eye on Martin Prado this spring.  He was impressive enough in 2009 to not only take the job in Atlanta away from Kelly Johnson, but he made Johnson completely expendable in the Braves’ eyes.  Prado showed a good eye at the plate and the power in his bat showed up.  He gets caught stealing too often to be a true speed asset, but he could be a nice late gem nonetheless.  Prado will certainly be a lot cheaper than Gordon Beckham.  Beckham gave us a taste of what he could do in 2009, and the signs are bright.  Unfortunately, his numbers were good enough that he is now on every radar screen.  He put up 14 HR and 7 SBs in a short season (378 ABs).  Makes me think to this time in the last off-season when another youngster who had very good numbers in 2008 was going for large bids and early picks in drafts.  Alexei Ramirez.  How did that work out?  That is exactly the argument for taking one of the safe and cheaper bets.  Everyone was on the Ramirez bandwagon looking for the next big thing at a thin position, and paid for him.  They just don’t always pan out.  Keep your bidding for Gordon in check.  If you can get Casey McGehee for cheaper (which is almost assured) grab him instead.  The kid showed good pop, and is much more likely to slip under your competition’s radar at your draft or auction.

Obviously, Rickie Weeks and Kaz Matsui are the two largest injury risks in the group.  Both have the upside to perform well if healthy and playing like they have shown they can.  How many ABs they can actually give you is a real concern.  Luis Castillo is just old.  His resurgent season in 2009 was great for owners who gambled on him, but don’t expect another season like that.  People are very high on Asdrubal Cabrera this season.  If you can still get him after half this tier is gone, that isn’t so bad, but there is nothing that suggests that a breakout season is coming.  His OBP is creaping up, which is good since it will keep him in the lineup.  However, I doubt the power will grow much, and the speed is mediocre.  Allberto Callaspo took a large step up in the power department while maintaining his usual nice batting average.  He should continue to hit well, but the power should be viewed with skepticism.  Ian Stewart has power.  He also has a poor batting average.  In the minors, he struck out less than twice as much as he walked.  In the bigs last season he struck out closer to three times as much as he walked.  Trouble.  Chris Getz showed decent plate discipline and that he could steal a base.  Unfortunately he will have to fight for playing time with Callaspo.

Fourth Tier: Felipe Lopez, Clint Barmes, Howie Kendrick, Skip Schumaker, Jeff Baker, Kelly Johnson, Freddy Sanchez, Scott Sizemore, Mark Ellis, Willy Aybar, Ronnie Belliard, Akinori Iwamura, Eugenio Velez, Maicer Izturis, Adam Kennedy, Julio Lugo, Willie Harris, Brendan Harris, Juan Uribe

Full of so-so production, part-time players, and little upside, the fourth tier is just ugly.  Jeff Baker may have some upside, since his power in the minors was better than what he showed in 2009, and his batting average was more than respectable.  Skip Schumaker can hit .300 for you, but it is a pretty empty line other than that.  Eugenio Velez will have playing time issues, but can still steal enough bases to be useful.  The fact that Felipe Lopez only put up numbers close to those of Placido Polanco, and that was a RESURGENCE should be a warning sign.  It should not be a sign you should equate them as the same value.  Scott Sizemore is a name that could slip by other GMs, but he should start the season with a full time job.  Nothing special, but he should play.