Ben Sheets  (SP – OAK) –  Sheets is telling anyone that will listen that he is 100% healthy this season.  While this is normal talk for an injury prone player like Sheets, this is also the type of player that can help you win the league.  He has no stats from 2009 for your competition to see, so he could fly right under their radar.  Even if there are a few members of your league that are watching him this spring, they will likely be hesitant to bid more than a few dollars in order to land him.  Lemme give you another name that was very similar to Sheets’s situation in 2009… Chris Carpenter.  That worked out pretty well for those GMs that took the gamble on him.  If Sheet’s velocity is where it should be late in the spring, I will gamble on him for the right price.

Josh Hamilton  (OF – TEX) –  Shoulder problems last year, and already a shoulder contusion this spring.  For the most part, his story makes you want to root for him.  His career year in 2008 was awesome, but has to be put in context.  That was two years ago, after many years of his talent being wasted.  He is not some 22 year old superstar.  He is 29 years old, and an injury risk.  Root for him, but don’t pay as though he is going to be a core member of your keeper league for years.

Octavio Dotel  (RP – PIT) –  He is the favorite to start the season closing games for the Pirates, so he has to be on your radar.  Here is the skinny.  He has met with some success throughout his career, and has put up the occasional great season.  Yet he has not been able to hold down the closer’s role for long stretches whether due to injury or ineffectiveness.  Now 36 years old, this could easily be his last chance to hold a role this significant (and perhaps extend his career a couple of years).  His ERA in 2009 was great, but his K/9 rate dropped from 12.86 down to 10.83 (which is still by all means respectable), and his BB/9 rate went up from 3.9 to 5.2.  The lack of other good options should give him a nice long leash, but don’t be surprised if that leash eventually runs out.  Also note that he is dealing with some side soreness, which is not the start he was looking for.

Stephen Strasburg (SP – WAS) –  If you watch as much ESPN as I do, you have probably heard the story on this kid.  He is supposedly awesome, and Pudge Rodrigeuz recently threw his two cents in about Strasburg to the media.  When asked if Strasburg has stuff similar to Justin Verlander, he said that Nolan Ryan was a closer comparison.  That type of comment obviously has to be taken with a grain of salt, but it is exactly the type of thing that make fantasy baseball GMs drool about a player, and thus overpay for him.  The story I like even better is how Strasburg’s nickname is evolving.  Supposedly they are calling him “Jesus”, because when hitters make their out against him they walk away muttering, “Jesus!”.  Be careful reaching for Strasburg in your fantasy baseball draft or auction.  While the Nationals do need starters pretty badly, there is just no telling how much (or little) time in the majors he will get.

Mike Napoli  (C – LAA) –  Mike Napoli may get it.  He is working on his defense, apparently switching to a bigger glove.  Napoli has tremendous power, and has managed to keep him batting average high enough not to hurt fantasy teams.  His lack of ABs over the last three years is the only reason he is not considered among the elite catchers.  If his defense can improve to the point where Mike Scioscia can trust him for 120-130 games, he could be one of the big fantasy baseball breakouts of 2010.  Of course, a bigger glove is not going to help him call a better game for his pitchers.  It remains to be seen if it is an issue of his pitch calling or actually catching the ball that is the major part of the problem.

Francisco Liriano  (SP – MIN) –  Early reports are good, as was his stint in the Dominican League over the winter.  He says he feels like he is getting back into his rookie year form.  While I am not willing to pay as though that is certain, I could easily believe that he can make enough comeback to make a modest bid worth while.  Since his 2009 numbers were not very good, he is similar to Ben Sheets in that his profile should be fairly low.

Michael Brantley  (OF – CLE) –  My pick for A.L. ROY’s chances to actually win the award took a big hit yesterday when Russell Branyan was said to be the front runner for the starting first base job.  Such a move would put 2010 fantasy baseball sleeper Matt LaPorta into the outfield, and put uber-sleeper Brantley in AAA.  It remains to be seen if Branyan can stay effective and healthy at the same time, so don’t give up on Brantley quite yet.  He now he needs either LaPorta or Branyan to fail in order to get the ABs he needs.  He has the ability to step up should the opportunity to win a job present itself.

Chone Figgins  (3B? – SEA) –  I have been doing a lot of stat trivia on Twitter lately, and I keep coming across Figgins’ name.  He had a great year last season.  He was the only player in the majors that walked at least 100 times and stole over 20 bases in 2009.  His OBP was almost .400, and he stole over 30 bases for the 6th straight season.  However, the reason that I am writing about him today is that the Mariners are considering moving him to second base.  An excellent defender at third, I would be surprised if this actually happened.  Yet his 2010 fantasy baseball value would take a huge jump should they make this move official.

Starting Pitchers

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Top Tier:  Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia, Johan Santana, Dan Haren, Zack Greinke, Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez

Tim Lincecum is just awesome.  He shows no signs of slowing down.  Roy Halladay had a strong case to win the A.L. Cy Young Award in 2009.  Other names come and go, Roy Halladay is still in the top tier.  CC Sabathia could win 15 games in his sleep on the mighty Yankees.  His ratios were still very good despite the home run bonanza at Yankee Stadium.  Johan Santana has been too good for too long to doubt.  I have no problems believing that he will have a very strong 2010.  Zach Greinke actually did win the A.L. Cy Young Award, and was excellent in 2009.  With his anxiety issues behind him, and 4 “plus” pitches, he could be atop this list for a long time.

Dan Haren’s numbers in 2009 were excellent even with a second half that was very pedestrian.  If he could just put it together for a full season, he could be the best pitcher in the game.  Justin Verlander finally had that complete breakout season.  Once the lid is off of the strikeout jar, I expect them to keep coming.  He got his ratios under control from a down 2008, putting up his third year out of four with an ERA under 4.0.  Felix Hernandez took a nice step forward in 2009.  He got his BB rate back down, and his HR rate dropped for the third straight season.  His BABIP in 2009 was a little low, so his ratios may uptick slightly.

Second Tier:  Adam Wainwright, Jon Lester, Cliff Lee, Josh Beckett, Chris Carpenter, Cole Hamels, Javier Vazquez, Matt Cain, John Lackey, Brandon Webb, Jake Peavy, Clayton Kershaw, Yovani Gallardo, Ubaldo Jimenez, Ted Lilly, Josh Johnson, Jair Jurrjens

These guys are still very good options, and many of them are capable of putting up first tier numbers.  Some had off years, some are one category short of being great, and some have yet to provide enough track record to justify paying top tier prices.  To all of you Adam Wainwright owners that don’t like seeing his name this low:  Chill.  If he does in 2010 what he did in 2009, he will be in the top tier.  Personally, I am not willing to pay what is going to be top dollar for a guy with such a short track record of first tier type success.  All of Jon Lester’s numbers are headed in the right direction for a breakout season.  With a rising K rate, a falling BB rate, and BAA that has dropped two straight years, this could be the last chance to get him without paying very top dollar (if it isn’t too late already).  Cliff Lee got shipped off to Seattle.  The ballpark there will help him, but the supporting cast and the change back to the American League will not.  Josh Beckett always seems to be in the second tier.  His stats tick up, and his stats tick down.  However, he just does not seem to be able to stay at the top of the fantasy baseball pitching rankings.

Chris Carpenter managed to stay healthy in 2009, and he was just as good as we remembered.  I kept waiting for the wheels to come off that bus, and it just kept rolling.  There is definitely still a little risk of injury with him, but he is good enough when healthy to lead your rotation.  Cole Hamels not only had an off-year, but his post-season comments are sure to cost him positions in 2010 snake drafts.  Grab him.  He is so good, and this is a buy low opportunity of which smart GMs will take advantage.  His BABIP was 55 points higher in 2009 than in 2008, and his BB/9 rate was unchanged.  I am skeptical that Javier Vazquez will have as much success in 2010 as he did in 2009.  The change back to the American League along with the move from a pitchers park to one that favors hitters could spell higher ratios.  Beware.  Matt Cain just keeps plugging along and getting better with age.  There are a couple of signs that his ratios will correct towards his career averages.  Firstly, his BABIP was .268 in 2009, that was well under his usual.  Also, he let up his highest HR rate of his career in 2009.  Although wins may continue to be a problem on the lowly Giants, he remains a quality investment.    John Lackey continues to be a good option, however two straight seasons pitching under 200 innings are a warning sign not to chase him too far.

The next two pitchers have been staples in the top tier in recent years.  Brandon Webb has perhaps the best sinker in the game.  He had shoulder problems that cost him all of 2009, and is a high risk/reward play in 2010.  Watch him in the spring and adjust your price on his health.  Jake Peavy is not only coming back from injury, but now moves to the American League and a hitter’s park.  That did not seem to slow him down at all at the end of 2009.  Unlike Javier Vazquez (who has a mixed track record of success and failure), Peavy has given us no reason to believe that the change in scenery will result in any difference in his stats except more wins.  Ted Lilly had a great season interrupted by injury in 2009, but should remain a low-profile source of wins and good ratios.

The next five starters are youngsters with great promise.  Clayton Kershaw made Dodger fans drool at what he did in a short 2009.  As a fantasy GM, contain that drool until you see his price.  His K/9 rate stood at 9.74, his BAA was .198, and he only gave up 119 hits in 171.0 IN.  If he can just get control of that high walk rate, this kid could be something to watch.  The fact that many youngsters never really overcome that problem is why you need to contain that drool.  Like Kershaw, Yovani Gallardo is some control away from being included in the next generation of elite pitchers.  With a K/9 rate in 2009 that was even better than Kershaw, he too has dominant stuff, holding batters to a .223 average in 2009.

Ubaldo Jimenez took another big step forward last year, improving on both his K/9 and BB/9 rates.  Despite pitching in Colorado, his ability to get ground-ball outs have kept home runs from being an issue.  Of the group, Josh Johnson has the best control. His allowed the fewest walks of the group in 2009, and his K rate was only a bit lower than Kershaw and Gallardo.  In that ballpark, he could even improve on these numbers.  Jair Jurrjens is only 24 years old this season.  He built a second excellent campaign on top of a great rookie season.  Across the board, his numbers improved.  The potential is there to increase the strikeouts as he gets stronger.

Third Tier:  James Shields, A.J. Burnett, Jered Weaver, Matt Garza, Scott Baker, Chad Billingsley, Scott Kazmir, Tommy Hanson, Roy Oswalt, Carlos Zambrano, Ricky Nolasco, J.A. Happ, Francisco Liriano, Max Scherzer, Ryan Dempster, John Danks, Rich Harden, Andy Pettitte, Derek Lowe, Neftali Feliz, Clay Buchholz, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Brett Anderson,

James Shields was quite the disappointment in 2009.  He let up a career high in home runs, let up 20 more hits than innings pitched, and his walk rate was the worst since his first season in the show.  Perhaps he should go back to working mostly fastball/chageup and less of the curveball.  He has good odds for a rebound but don’t overlook his struggles.  A.J. Burnett’s ratios (as expected) were not excellent, but thats what happens when you let up 21 home runs and walk 97 batters. He did pitch over 200 innings in back to back seasons for the first time.  He also came through with the strikeouts, but only 13 wins was disappointing.  This is what Burnett is, and there is no reason to expect drastic improvement (except for wins, since the Yankees are a scoring machine).

Scott Baker showed flashes of brilliance in 2009.  Since he has excellent control (as shown by just issuing 48 walks in over 200 innings during 2009), his WHIP is above average.  After the All-Star Break he went 8-2 with a 3.28 ERA.  If you are looking for a mild sleeper that could outperform his price greatly, this is where you should look.  Chad Billingsley was cruising right along through the first half of 2009 putting up numbers right in line with the stats that made GMs pay large amounts in auctions.  The second half of the season, those stats took a sharp turn downward.  His owners were looking for fewer walks, but Billingsley’s BB/9 rate remained unchanged.  While his ERA went up close to a run, his BAA actually went down 10 points.  Take the discount and run.

Whichever GM in your league goes for the “next big thing” every season will go after Tommy Hanson this year.  I personally would rather go for one of the above options that are more proven.  Hanson may be good, but 124 innings is not enough of a sample size for me to pay what my competition will.  It seems everywhere I look, Ricky Nolasco is ranked absurdly high.  He definitely has huge upside, and in 2009 his K/9 rate went up significantly.  It is the 23 home runs that worry me.  His control is above average for a pitcher his age, so if he can keep the ball in the yard, he can quickly improve on that 5.06 ERA he posted in 2009.  If that ERA scares away other owners and the price remains reasonable, grab him.  If it enters 2nd tier prices, let him go.  Supposedly, Francisco Liriano is pitching very well with good velocity in winter ball.  With the amount of time that has gone by since he has been good, and the numbers he has put up since, Liriano will be cheaper than ever.  If he is healthy this spring, he will be an excellent gamble.

J.A. Happ made a strong case for National League Rookie of the Year.  I am not as impressed as a fantasy GM.  He is a fly-ball pitcher in a hitter’s ballpark.  His K/9 rate was only 6.45 in 2009, and his LOB% was very high.  While Happ will be a name everyone knows in your league, he is not one that will be worth the gamble.  As you have read, I usually downgrade a pitcher for moving from the National League to the American League.  The one case this season where that is not true is in the case of Max Scherzer.  The ballpark in Detroit is more friendly to pitchers, and the Tigers will win more games than the Diamondbacks.  Scherzer has good stuff, a nice K rate, and could take a nice step forward on a team that is actually competitive.  After a strong 2008, most of Ryan Dempster’s numbers ticked down towards his career averages in 2009.  It looks like his new improved control is for real, but he will never be a great pitcher for WHIP purposes.  It is the same old story for Rich Harden.  If he is healthy, he could be one of the top pitchers in the game.  Now he also has to pitch half his games in a hitter’s ballpark.

Clay Buchholz has four good pitches and could emerge this season as a good fantasy asset.  It is true that Boston is a tough place to break into the big leagues and find immediate success, but if he does it will be huge for fantasy purposes.  He reminds me a bit of Zack Greinke.  Neftali Feliz has my Ranger-fan-friend very excited.  He has the K-rate, but needs some more control.  There is upside here, fantasy baseball sleeper alert!!  It now appears that Daisuke Matsuzaka was injured for pretty much all of 2009.  It sounds a little bit like an excuse (since this news just was revealed recently), but a rebound is possible.  I would not pay as though it were certain, though.  Brett Anderson appears to have both the K-rate and the control to be a very good fantasy asset.  Could be a late sleeper, but a short track record makes him a less than certain bet.

Fourth Tier:  Scott Feldman, Joe Blanton, Randy Wolf, Mark Buehrle, Tim Hudson, Jonathan Sanchez, Aaron Harang, Kevin Millwood, Gavin Floyd, Dave Bush, Joe Saunders, Kevin Slowey, Erik Bedard, Hiroki Kuroda, Wandy Rodriguez, Rick Porcello, Edwin Jackson, Joba Chamberlain, Ben Sheets, Stephen Strasburg, Randy Wells, Joel Pineiro, Johnny Cueto, Brad Penny, Barry Zito, Ervin Santana, Aroldis Chapman, John Maine

Scott Feldman was surprisingly effective in 2009.  His 17 wins could draw some attention, but his ratios and mediocre strikeout rate could keep him of the radar.  If you throw out the 6 innings he pitched as a reliever (and gave up 9 runs) his numbers for the season get even more impressive.  He also faded down the stretch, posting his worst ERA in September.  I am just not a Joe Blanton fan.  He has not let up fewer hits than innings pitched since 2005, and he let up a career high HR/9 rate in 2009.  His LOB% was also a career high, indicating that more of his base runners will score in 2010.  Randy Wolf had an amazing season in 2009.  Treat it like what it is, a very nice, outlier of a season that fantasy GMs will overpay for.  Mark Buehrle threw a perfect game in 2009, and that will only add to how overrated he is in a fantasy sense.  He has not let up fewer hits than innings pitched since 2002.  I like that Ben Sheets has wound up in Oakland.  The ballpark is excellent for pitchers, and the low-pressure and expectations for the A’s will work in his favor.  He swears he is healthy, but all fantasy baseball GMs should know that it is still a risk.

Jonathan Sanchez has the Ks, but his control is still a long way from being a fantasy asset (2009- 163.3 IN, 88 BB).  Once he gets that control, look out.  Dave Bush’s season would not have been so bad if not for a come-backer that tore his bicep.  He never got back on track after that.  A late flier at best.  Ben Sheets is still a free agent at the time of this posting.  Even if he signs with a good team, his injury history make him a gamble.  Rick Porcello has some serious upside.  He is only 22 years old and is already finding success to the tune of 14 wins.  A little more control and a little more strength that comes with age, and he could be a gem.  If you haven’t been paying attention, you may have missed Hiroki Kuroda’s nice 2009 season.  He has yet to throw 200 innings in a season, but his numbers show that he has the ability to be effective when healthy.

Stephen Strasburg is supposedly a phenom, but it remains to be seen how much he will pitch in 2010.  He will most likely be overpriced.  Joba Chamberlain’s numbers are all moving in the wrong direction.  A Yankee pitcher over-hyped?  Wow.  Johnny Cueto did not really make much progress in 2009.  In fact his K/9 rate got worse.  Dusty Baker doesn’t care though, because he has a new young arm to abuse. Aroldis Chapman made a bad decision to sign with the Reds.  He will get his chance to shine this season, and if he is good Dusty will wear that arm out.  Recent reports have John Maine healthy again.  He was seen as a high upside pitcher after a good 2007, and will be a late sleeper for 2010.

Fifth Tier: Clayton Richard, Justin Masterson, Chris Volstad, David Price, Nick Blackburn, Luke Hochevar, Brian Matusz, Marc Rzepczynski, Jorge de la Rosa, Gil Meche, Jeff Niemann, Bronson Arroyo, Chris Young, Kevin Correia, Ricky Romero, Jason Hammel, Kenshin Kawakami, Kyle Lohse, Mike Pelfrey, Paul Maholm, Matt Latos, Shaun Marcum, Zach Duke, Bud Norris, Felipe Paulino, Garrett Mock, Trevor Cahill, Wade Davis, Brandon Marrow, Brett Cecil, David Huff, Gio Gonzalez, John Lannan, Jeremy Guthrie, Jon Garland, Koji Uehara, Manny Parra, Robinson Tejada, Ross Ohlendorf, Ryan Rowland-Smith, Carl Pavano, Scott Richmond, Sean West

Once you get this low, the upside starts getting thin.  After all, we are talking about a lot of 4th and 5th starters here (many on bad teams).  It may be time to think about grabbing a reliever that can help you in the ratios instead of taking on the risk a bad starter represents.  Brian Matusz has showed some upside in 8 starts in 2009, but is so young he should only be taken as a late flier.  Marc Rzepczynski only had a 61 inning sample size in the show last year, but his minor league track record make him a nice sleeper.  If he looks like he has earned a roster spot in the late spring, don’t hesitate to push him up your draft board a little.  Jeff Niemann also looked good in his rookie season.  His K rate leaves something to be desired, but he has upside.  Kenshin Kawakami may or may not have a rotation spot in 2010.  If he does he showed enough to make him worth drafting late.

Can he match 2009 in 2010?

In the last off-season, Javier Vazquez went to the Atlanta Braves.  At the time, I was optimistic that the move would be good for the hurler.  Not only did I think it would be good for him, but I thought it would be good for me since after several mediocre seasons his price would be depressed.  Unfortunately, many people had the exact same thought as I did, and they paid more in our drafts.  One can hardly blame them, since he was going from the American League to the National League, and he was going to a pitcher’s park to boot.  Those of us who believed in Vazquez thought that he would put up numbers that were closer to his old Expos days than the recent results we had witnessed.  The numbers he wound up posting, however, were far beyond the resurgence that I saw coming.  They were huge.  They were awesome.  They were worth much more than the bid money than I was willing to pay (my apologies to Fanball.com for ripping their ranking of Vazquez in their magazine last year).  So will he put up great fantasy numbers again in 2010?  That is the question.

Early Career

While Vazquez played in Montreal, we got the occasional taste of what he could do.  In 2001 and 2003 in particular, Vazquez put up numbers which lead us to believe there was more coming (2001- 3.43 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 208 K:  2003- 3.23 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 241 K).  In those two years, even his secondary numbers were excellent.  In both of those two seasons his BAA was under .240.  In both of those two seasons he let up far fewer hits and innings pitched, and in both those two seasons overall, he recorded almost a strikeout per inning pitched.  Of course, the fact that he played for such a pathetically inept organization made the smart fantasy GM ask, “I wonder what he could do if he played for a good team.”  So when the Yankees got him in 2004, those same smart GMs started drooling at the possibilities.  Of course, when he pitched his lowest inning total since 1999 with the highest BB/IN ratio since his rookie season, expectations were tempered.

New York had enough of him after a season, and after a similarly disappointing season in Arizona, he wound up pitching for the White Sox from the 2006-2008 seasons.  The sole bright spot of those three years was 2007, when he was able to keep his WHIP at 1.14 (his lowest since leaving Montreal).  Likewise, his K rate went back up, and it was his only year in Chicago during which he let up fewer hits than innings pitched.  One factor that also needs to be noted is that this 2007 season his BABIP was at .297.  In the year before and the year after (when his numbers were noticeably worse) his BABIP was over .320.  So some back luck may have been involved in some of those inflated numbers.

A quick summary of his career numbers prior to 2009.  He pitched a total of 9 seasons.  He had an ERA under 4.00 in four of those seasons.  He had a WHIP under 1.25 in 3 of those seasons.  His highest wins totals came in 2001 and 2007 when he had 16 and 15 wins, respectively.  He had two seasons of those nine with a K/9 ratio under 8.0.

So overall, before his stud-like season in 2009, Javier Vazquez had been pretty much a tease.  He showed what he could do, but you never knew going into the season what he would do.

2009

The change of teams was huge for the fantasy value of Vazquez.  He went from the better-hitting league to the lesser-hitting league.  He also went from a home run park much more suited to pitching.  So while his past numbers made his fantasy numbers a gamble, it was one that was worth taking at the right price.  The results were amazing.  Vazquez went on to have a year that was worthy of consideration for the Cy Young award (had there not been a “Freak” in San Francisco that can’t be denied).  In no month during the season did he have an ERA over 4.00.  In no month did he let up more hits than innings pitched.  His K rate was steady around or over 1 K/IN.  The splits between his first and second halves of the season had no significant differences.  He held right-handed batters to a .212 BA.  Against lefties his BAA was only .235.  It was just a huge, solid, studly year for the starter.  Those fantasy baseball GMs that took the gamble won in the biggest way possible (and I won a dollar from my buddy Mike W for betting Vazquez would beat John Danks in 3 out of the 4 scoring categories.  Thanks, Mike).  However, when you look closer at the numbers, this season looks more and more like an outlier.  An outlier that is going to cost fantasy baseball GMs thousands of bid dollars and high draft picks around the country.

Warning Signs

In my mind there are huge, loud, blaring, alarms going off.  There are two reasons why.  The first reason has to do with the secondary numbers Vazquez had during 2009.  While Vazquez had played peek-a-boo with fantasy studliness for years, these numbers were beyond what he had shown.  The spike in his numbers is incredible.  Check out these Vazquez stats from 2009:

K/9 – 9.77 – Career High

BB/9 – 1.81 – 2nd Best of Career

K/BB – 5.41 Career Best

HR/9 – 0.82 – Career Best

BAA – .226 – Career Best

WHIP – 1.03 – Career Best

BABIP – .297 – Nothing to note here except that it is right about in the middle of his career norms.  Meaning, this was not an explanation of why his numbers were so much better.

Top off all of these stats with batted balls stats that are also outliers.  His groundball/flyball ration went from 0.92 to 1.20.  His fly ball rate alone dropped by 7%.  Now, there could be a partial explanation if perhaps a coach or fellow pitcher taught him something (maybe ground-ball specialist, Derek Lowe gave him a tip?).  The reason I feel that this is possible is that his pitch selection changed in 2009.  Apparently, he threw his fastball less than in any other year of his career (49.9% of the time), and threw his curveball more than any recent season (16.7%).  If something so fundamental has changed, then perhaps he can hold on to a significant portion of this gain he has made.  However, with numbers that are SOOOO different from his career norms, a good amount of recession should be expected (My thanks to fangraphs.com for many of the stats used in this section.  They are an excellent resource for us fantasy people.  Check them out.)

The second reason to be worried about paying the 2010 price for Vazquez is that pitchers who have outlier seasons tend not to repeat those numbers.  In the seasons of 2003-2008, there have been 26 cases where a starter has pitched a complete season with an ERA of 3.00 or lower (min 180 IN.  Each season the same pitcher has the requisite ERA is counted as a separate case).  If you look at those seasons and compare the pitcher’s ERA from that season to the next, you will find that in only 5 of those 26 cases did the starting pitcher repeat the 3.00 or lower ERA the following season.  In the five cases where a pitcher was able to repeat, Johan Santana accounted for two of them, Roy Oswalt for one, Tim Lincecum for one, and Roy Halladay for the remaining one.  Those are some stud names, huh?  So there are 21 cases left.  Remove from that number the 2 additional seasons where Santana had an ERA of 3 or less but did not repeat it the next season, the one time Oswalt did not repeat, and you are down to 18 cases.  That is 18 seasons from 17 different starters where they could not follow up a 3.00 ERA with the same in the following season.  Andy Pettitte, Dontrelle Willis, Carl Pavano, Ben Sheets, Mark Prior, and Carlos Zambrano are names that have been able to put up one season with a sub-3 ERA, but not repeat.  Looking back at those names, how many GMs do you think paid up the wazoo for those guys expecting more of the same?  I sure know the Yankees bit on Pavano.  Did you?  On Prior?  Sheets?

The reality is that every year there are starters that have huge ratio variance, and cannot continue the trend.  In 2008-9 it was Ryan Dempster.  The year before it was Jake Peavy.  This year it looks to be Javier Vazquez.  Bottom line is that starters who have a huge year out of nowhere can, in general, be expected to regress back towards their career averages.  If you want to pay big bucks or high draft picks for pitchers that are going to help your ratios, stick with the big guns that have been able to repeat the feat.

Fantasy Implications

The news is still good for Javier Vazquez.  I expect him to have another good season, but not nearly as good as his 2009.  He certainly stays healthy, and even his so-s0 years can help a fantasy team.  However, for fantasy baseball GMs that are planning on drafting Vazquez, I issue this word of warning.  His price is going to be sky high.  The odds of him putting up the same season he did in 2009 are remote.  Even if he manages to put up another above average season, the price you must pay in an auction (or the high pick you must use) are not going to be commensurate to the production you can expect.  This game of fantasy baseball is one in which predictability is the most important factor.  Knowing which players cannot repeat studly numbers can save you a season’s worth of frustration.  So do not draft Vazquez as if he can anchor your rotation.  He cannot.  He would be a good 2nd starter, and a fantastic 3rd starter, but if you are counting on taking him as your best starter you could be in trouble.  This profile was written before Vazquez was traded to the Yankees.  While my analysis of his past is unaffected, I am not as optimistc that he will be able to maintain anywhere close to last season’s ratios.  He will win more games, but in that ballpark and in the better hitting league, he may get roughed up often.  My projections have been adjusted accordingly. My projections for Javier Vazquez in 2010: 16 W, 3.88 ERA, 1.28WHIP, 191 K, 203 IN