Catcher

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Jorge Posada (NYY) –  There is no question that he is getting up there in age.  He also has recent injury history that makes him a risk.  However he will remain a starter on one of the most powerful offensive lineups in the league.  There are just better options that could break through and remain better for longer than Posada.  I would rather focus my attention on a longer-term option.  They will also likely be cheaper.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $12

Miguel Montero (ARI) –  I had Montero on my team last season, and he was a pleasure.  In 234 second-half ABs, Montero hit 11 HR with 40 RBI and a .316 batting average.  While many of your competition will focus on the big-hype Matt Wieters, if you can keep Montero for the right price, he could be a gem.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $14

Mike Napoli (LAA) -  This guy is a tease.  In the last two seasons, he has hit 40 home runs in only 609 ABs.  While this number is about a full season of ABs for the normal position player, as we know, catchers average closer to 500.  Either way, the power Napoli offers cannot be denied.  A “full” season for him of 500 ABs would probably result in 30+ HRs.  Napoli has also seemed to get his batting average up to acceptable levels (though his BABIP has risen every season of his career).  The problem with Napoli is that he just doesn’t play enough to get a full season.  Mike Scioscia likes to mix it up behind the plate, perhaps due to Napoli’s below-average defense.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $13

Russell Martin (LAD) –  What was once a no-brain protect has dropped dramatically in value.  Once, he was the best power/speed option at the position (and he still may be).  However, an across the board drop in all scoring categories for a second straight season should keep the bidding on Martin low.  He could easily have a resurgence in 2010, but don’t pay to keep him as though it is certain.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $9

Matt Wieters (BAL) - Don’t overpay for the hype.  He certainly can hit.  He has some power.  But he is still very young, and the power that would make him the keeper we are looking for may take some time to develop.  Keep in mind how long it took for Joe Mauer to find his pop.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $11

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First Base

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Paul Konerko (CWS) –  Don’t expect a rebound to his previous power and batting average levels.  For that matter, don’t pay for his name.  His line-drive rate has dropped significantly, his fly-ball rate was a career high in 2009, and his RBIs have been very disappointing over the last two seasons.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $10

Carlos Pena (TB) –  Prodigious power, a low batting average.  Pena has hit 46, 31,39 home runs respectively in the last three seasons.  Even more impressive is that he did so in under 500 ABs in each season.  That batting average, however, has gone from good, to bad, to awful, in those three seasons as well.  There is some hope of recovery since Pena’s BABIP in 2009 was .253.  That is over 50 points lower than in 2007 and 2008, and over 100 points lower than in 2006.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $19

Lance Berkman (HOU) –  I have owned Berkman in two different keeper leagues over the last several seasons.  Last season I had enough.  I traded him away in both leagues, and am not looking back.  It is not that I don’t believe he can be valuable, because he still can.  What is frustrating is not being able to predict what kind of season he will have.  His power in the first half of 2009 was great, hitting 18 HRs.  Yet for the second season, his second half saw his fantasy value tank.  He is just too inconsistent.  Not to mention, his supporting cast is not as strong as it used to be in his glory days.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $23

Billy Butler (KC) –  If you are going to keep a player based on upside rather than proven production, do so at one of the thiner positions where a true breakout will be much more valuable.  Billy Butler is a nice player, and could hit .300 and approach 30 home runs in 2010.  However, he has not proven to be worthy of reaching for, and certainly not paying top dollar for.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $13

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Second Base

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Dan Uggla (FLA) –  At second base, there are no-brainers and there are non-protects.  There are very few “bubble guys”.  Uggla will be seen in many leagues to be a no-brain protect.  He is, after all, a great source of power for a middle infielder.  The batting average is a strike against him, but so long as you aren’t paying the same price for him as for the elite at the position, you should keep him.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $23

Gordon Beckham (CWS) –  Now switching to second base for the 2010 season, Beckham sees added fantasy value.  With power potential and speed enough to steal bases, Beckham will be overpriced in auctions based on his upside.  If you have him in a keeper league and can keep him for a low price, don’t even think about letting him go.  You will not get him back for anywhere near the single digit price you probably have him for.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $19

Ben Zobrist (TB) –  I like this kid.  His numbers are on the upswing and he offers production in at least 4 of the 5 scoring categories.  However, like all players, it is safer to pay top dollar after establishing a track record for more than one season.  Bump his value up a couple of dollars if the 13 games he played at shortstop in 2009 qualifies him in your league.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $21

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Third Base

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Chone Figgins (SEA) –  The stolen bases are nice.  But going from the Angels to the Mariners hurts Figgy’s value.  It remains to be seen where he will bat in the order (my guess is second), and may struggle to reach 100 runs in 2010.  He offers little power (even less now at Safeco) and his batting average is all over the map from one season to another.  At best a three category contributor.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $21

Pablo Sandoval (SF) –  I nearly didn’t put him in this “bubble” category because it is common knowledge that this kid can rake.  I would keep him in a heartbeat, and expect good power with a very good batting average.  On the weak hitting Giants, he will probably hit in the heart of the order.  MAX PROTECT PRICE $25

Ian Stewart (COL) –  I am not a fan of keeping young players who’s power makes them attractive while their batting average is low.  It is that kind of player that goes for too much bid money, and could wind up losing playing time.  Stewart falls into that category.  He was not a high batting average guy in the minors, and there is no reason to believe that he will just become one in the big leagues.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $12

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Shortstop

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Jason Bartlett (TB) –  Perhaps the biggest (if not most unexpected) fantasy baseball breakout of 2009, Bartlett is sure to be one of the tougher decisions for fantasy owners for 2010.  The batting average was huge at .320 and the power just kept coming to the tune of 14 HRs.  You can expect the batting average to correct a bit based on his BABIP, and the power was just too out of nowhere to believe in entirely.  However, Bartlett can be seen as an option worth of protecting since he will likely be the most valuable shortstop on the board if dropped.  Also worthy of note is that he will lead off should Carl Crawford be traded as is widely speculated.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $21

Alexei Ramirez (CWS) –  Ramirez is exactly the reason that you have to contain your expectations when paying for unproven young talent.  Alexi failed to meet the marks he set in 2008 during his second season in 4 out of the 5 categories despite logging 60 more ABs in 2009.  The potential is still there for a nice 5-category season, but remember that he is not some 23 year old.  He will be 29 this year.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $18

Elvis Andrus (TEX) –  Moving Michael Young to third base to make room for Andrus, the Rangers must expect big things from him to hand the starting job over to a 20 year old.  He made good on his first year in the bigs, and provided good fantasy value to his owners.  His batting average may not develop past his current mediocre level for another couple of seasons, but Andrus should be a fairly reliable option.  Now that Julio Borbon has been anointed the starter in center, thoughts of Andrus leading off should be over.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $14

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Outfield

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Torii Hunter (LAA) –  He is a lock for good, but not great production in all five categories.  That makes him dependable.  It also makes his ceiling fairly limited.  While potential breakouts such as Adam Jones and Andrew McCutchen will be bid up by GMs looking for the next big thing, Hunter will just continue giving good low-profile value.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $20

Chris Coghlan (FLA) –  Man, I hope you guys don’t overpay for Coghlan.  His numbers show that the batting average will remain high, but there will probably be little else to woo fantasy owners.  Not much power, not much speed (though the SB number could tick up slightly), and the loss of infield qualification dictates that you not go overboard for the 2009 N.L. ROY.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $11

Nyjer Morgan (WAS) –  The speedster successfully escaped Pittsburgh and ran wild once arriving in Washington.  Again, we are not talking about a youngster, as it took a good while for Morgan to break into the bigs and hold a spot there.  He is fast and can hit for average, however, and can help lock in a nice finish for your team in the stolen base category.  If your list of protects is studly, or slanted greatly towards power, pay an extra dollar or two for his services.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $17

Nate McLouth (ATL) –  He took a step back from his 2008 campaign, but 2009 still saw McLouth approach the 20-20 mark.  His ground ball rate has gone up almost 10% in the last two seasons, but his OBP remained constant.  While he may not take the step forward we were hoping for in 2009, he is still a fine source of power and speed.  Just think 2nd or 3rd outfielder, not 1st or 2nd.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $16

Raul Ibanez (PHI) –  Oh, what a disappointment the second half of 2009 was.  After crushing the ball and hitting 22 HRs with a .309 BA in the first half, the .238 batting average with 12 HRs in the second was a letdown.  Ibanez is old, and he never showed the type of power that he did in the first half of 2009.  Do not count on it continuing.  If you have him dirt cheap keep him, but there are better options out there with higher upside.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $11

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Starting Pitchers

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Johan Santana (NYM) –  I put him here in case there was some doubt in your mind that he should be protected.  He should be, and as a top pitcher.  Monitor his health up until the last moment you have to turn in your protects.  But if you hear no bad news, assume all is well and pay what you have to.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $30

Cole Hamels (PHI) –  I am a believer that Hamels just had an off season.  He works off his fastball with one of the best change-ups in the game.  His K/9 rate was almost unchanged from his very good 2008, as was his BB/9 rate.  The main difference in his numbers was his BABIP, which was 36 points higher than 2007 and 55 points higher than in 2008.  If you have him at top tier price, you can probably let him go and get him back cheaper in the auction.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $26

Javier Vazquez (NYY) –  With the season Vazquez had in 2009, many GMs will just automatically keep Vazquez.  Personally, I would be looking to trade him to someone else.  The change back to the American League and a hitter’s ballpark is going to crush his ratios, and make anyone who pays top dollar for him very sorry.  The good news is that since his 2009 was so much better than expected, you probably have him at a fairly cheap price.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $16

Yovani Gallardo (MIL) –  The touted youngster put up a nice season in 2009, which is sure to make fantasy GMs drool in anticipation of drafting him.  However, he suffers from a common affliction among young pitchers, which is a tendency to walk batters.  He is worth keeping at a moderate price, but know if you let him go, it will cost you to get him back.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $18

Tommy Hanson (ATL) –  The youngster posted a great stat-line in his first taste of the big leagues.  A 2.89 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP is nothing to sneeze at.  But neither is the fact that he has never thrown more innings during a season than he did in 2009 (194 IN between AAA and MLB).  To me, that is not enough of a sample size to pay for the hype that surrounds such a player.  Young pitchers are the most unpredictable commodity in fantasy baseball, and you should realize that before keeping such an unproven player.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $13

Ubaldo Jimenez (COL) –  Jimenez took a nice step forward in 2009, but that still leaves a ways to go.  I mean, he went from a 1.44 WHIP to a 1.23 WHIP.  Better?  Yes.  Worthy of paying as an elite pitcher?  No.  The potential is there for Jimenez to improve further, but there are options that have better control out there.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $16

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Closers

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Before we get into specific cases of closers, note that this is the fantasy baseball position that changes most often, and quickest.  Be sure to keep up with it by using our “Closer Report“.

Francisco Cordero (CIN) –  I am not a huge fan of closers that put up a high WHIP, and Cordero is one of these.  It is hard to argue with the results, since he has posted at least 22 saves in every season since 2004.  Yet in that same time span his WHIP has only been under 1.29 once.  That says to me that it will not take much decline for him to lose his job.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $18

Ryan Franklin (STL) –  Franklin is not some fireballing young kid that took the team by storm.  Instead, he was the lesser of the evils available in the Cardinal bullpen in 2009.  Sure, he came through with one of his better seasons, but with a track record of WHIP numbers as likely to be over 1.4 as under 1.2, Franklin had better be at the right price if you intend to protect him.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $13

Rafael Soriano (TB) –  The new closer for the Rays yanked the job away from Mike Gonzalez in Atlanta last season.  His second half was significantly worse than his first, yet he has the makeup of a closer and his secondary numbers point to success.  Injury is a risk with his history, and he also has some competition in the deep Ray’s pen if he should stumble.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $19

Outfield

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Top Tier:  Ryan Braun, Carl Crawford, Matt Kemp, Jacoby Ellsbury, Matt Holliday, Justin Upton, Jason Bay

Some of the best power and speed mixes in fantasy baseball are in this tier.  Ryan Braun has hit non-stop since joining the major league club.  He hits for power, a high batting average, and even set a career high in stolen bases in 2009.  He is only 26 years old.  Carl Crawford proved that he wasn’t finished after a mediocre 2008, finishing 2009 with 60 SBs and his highest home run total since 2006.  He even got that batting average over .300 to prove himself once again a 5-category threat.  Matt Kemp has the potential to take over the number one slot if he improves again in 2010.  Showing the ability to produce in all five categories, he tops my list for likely members of the 30-30 club in 2010.  Jacoby Ellsbury is a stolen base machine, and he apparently knows it.  He likes to steal, and wants to set milestones.  Expect it to continue in 2010.

Now that Matt Holliday has had a productive season away from Colorado, his price will go back up in 2010.  His power could grow a bit more in 2010, and he even kept up the stolen bases in 2009.  More importantly he still hit over .300.  While not the most flashy pick, he is dependable.  Justin Upton has plenty of upside, but even if he can manage to reach last season’s totals, he is ready to lead your outfield corp.  One red light about Upton is that his BABIP was a little higher than usual in 2009.  Some people may balk at paying full price for Jason Bay in 2010 since he signed to play half his games at Citi-field.  Don’t be one of them.  All he has to do is increase his batting average in 2010 and he will be a bonafide leader of fantasy teams.  The Mets like to use speed on the bases, so even if Bay loses a little of his HR production, he will likely steal more bases.

Second Tier:  Grady Sizemore, Adam Dunn, Curtis Granderson, Manny Ramirez,  Shane Victorino, B.J. Upton, Bobby Abreu, Shin-Soo Choo, Nelson Cruz, Jayson Werth

Several of these players have been in the top tier before, and some may be there after 2010.  Grady Sizemore was a sure top 3 outfield pick in 2009 fantasy baseball drafts and auctions.  Injury ruined his season (along with many fantasy baseball teams).  The Indians are pathetic offensively (if not completely), so his runs and RBI totals may suffer.  However, his power and speed remain intact.  Adam Dunn put together his usual power-heavy season, but finally did so along with a batting average that was not a detriment to fantasy rosters.  It still wasn’t a good batting average, but it was better than usual.  I thought he was over priced before he raised that average in 2009.  In 2010 he will be even more expensive.  Curtis Granderson saw his value jump drastically in this off-season when he was traded from the Tigers to the Yankees.  It remains to be seen where he will hit in the batting order, but wherever it is, it will be better for his fantasy value than anyplace within the city limits of Detroit.  All he needs to do is raise that batting average against left-handed pitching (2009- .183) and he can join the elites in the outfield.  Manny Ramirez is, well, Manny.  I don’t think age is really a factor for him quite yet.  Expect another .300 average with 30ish home runs.  He is in a contract year, so perhaps he will take the game seriously in 2010 and uptick.

Nelson Cruz offered great power and even threw in 20 stolen bases for fantasy owners in 2009.  He figured out minor league pitching, but has needed some time to be effective on the big stage.  Now that he is here, he is not going back.  If he can just get that BB/K rate closer to what he did in 2008, he could be a star.  Note:  Cruz is 30 years old this year, so realize that before paying a premium in keeper-leagues.  Perhaps the most upside in this group is B.J. Upton.  We saw what he could do in his awesome first full season, but it seems he has taken a step back at the plate.  Believers in him took comfort in the fact that despite his drop in batting average and power from 2007 to 2008, his OBP remained almost identical.  In 2009, that OBP dropped by 70 points.  The drop in his 2009 walk rate is undeniable, and should the trend continue this season his supporters will start to fade.  This is the last season I would pay full price for him unless he takes a step forward.  Shin-Soo Choo went 20-20 in 2009.  He was one of only 7 OFs to accomplish that feat.  His production was more than solid, and in no month did he hit lower than he did in May (.274).  His splits against RHP and LHP are good, so it is not likely that he will lose his starting status to some sort of platoon.

Did Jayson Werth finally prove to all his doubters how good he is?  He stayed healthy all year, started all year, and wound up producing numbers that were worth of much more bid money than he went for in 2009 auctions.  Do not expect him to come so cheap this season.  A word of warning about Werth.  His breakout came late (he is 31 this year), so I would not count him among “core” team members that you want to build a keeper team around.  He’s good, but his shelf life is probably not going to be that long.

Third Tier:  Carlos Lee, Carlos Quentin, Nick Markakis, Andre Ethier, Adam Lind, Torii Hunter, Hunter Pence, Nyjer Morgan, Ben Zobrist, Michael Cuddyer, Michael Bourn, Nate McLouth, Adam Jones, Andrew McCutchen, Josh Hamilton, Brad Hawpe, Denard Span, Juan Pierre, Raul Ibanez, Nolan Reimold, Jermaine Dye, Jason Kubel, Ryan Ludwick

Carlos Lee may be boring, but he is money in the bank.  It appears that his power and speed peaked in 2006, but he is still good for solid production in 4 out of the 5 scoring categories.  Do not underestimate how valuable 20-something HRs is with 100 RBI and a .300 BA.  After all, only 13 outfielders hit .300 in 2009.  Of those 13, only 6 of them hit 20 or more HRs, and of those, only 4 also had 100 RBI.  There is value here.  I like Carlos Quentin to rebound in a big way in 2010. When looking at his injuries and numbers in 2009, that may scare away other GMs.  After all, he still has only one really successful season under his belt.  Realize, however, that his AB/HR ratio remained steady in 2009.  Coming into the season healthy should help him move back into the second tier for 2011.  Nick Markakis may be a little overrated.  He has never topped 23 HRs, both his BB rate and his OBP were the lowest of his career in 2009, and his steals total has dropped drastically since his breakout season in 2007.  Beware of spending too much on him.  There is one big difference between Nyjer Morgan and Michael Bourn.  That is:  Nyjer Morgan has a track record with a good batting average, and Bourn does not.  Like the old saying goes, you can’t steal first base.  Bourn’s increase in batting average for the 2009 season was a surprise.  Don’t be surprised if it sinks significantly lower in 2010.

Ben Zobrist is a nice player, but should be taken at one of the infield positions before his name comes up on the outfield depth chart.  Andre Ethier and Adam Lind are in a similar situation.  Both just had a breakout 2009 in which they hit over 30 HRs.  Lind’s breakout could be real if he sticks to what he did in 2009.  He improved his plate discipline in a big way.  His percentage of balls outside the strike zone swung at dropped significantly, and his walk rate increased as a result.  The Blue Jays appear to be in a rebuilding year, so beware that Lind may not have as much support around him in the lineup as you would like.  Andre Ethier got a shot to play every day in 2009 and made the most of it.  While his BB rate went up, so did his K rate.  His BABIP actually was lower in 2009 than 2008, so perhaps that batting average will rise a bit in 2010.  One potential stumbling block for Ethier is that he has trouble with left-handed pitching (BA vs. LHP: 2008- .243, 2009- .194).

Andrew McCutchen is one of those players that people are hoping to slip by as a sleeper, but there is just no way.  He is going to go for big bucks in auctions as GMs hope to grab the next big power/speed threat.  The fact that he is on the Pirates limits his production in runs and RBI.  If you want a lower-key potential breakout, look to Adam Jones.  He could be this season’s power/speed outfielder, and his numbers from 2009 are not as likely to draw the attention of your competition.  Nolan Reimold may break-out in a similar fashion in 2010.  He has a good BB/K rate, and does not swing at too many balls outside of the strike-zone.  He may even steals bases for you.  This spring, monitor the healthy of his recently operated-on Achilles tendon before you draft him.  Don’t go overboard, since he still has to prove he can hit at the major league level, but a modest bid could pay big dividends.

I am not a believer in Josh Hamilton.  When he was young, there was crazy hype surrounded by injuries and mysterious “personal problems”.  He finally dealt with his issues, and had one monster season.  Then, right back to the injuries with worse performance when he did play.  I don’t care about the night he spent in a bar, and do not think that he is much risk to fall into that lifestyle again.  I care about his ability to hit, which is far from proven.  He could have another good season, but some fantasy baseball magazines I have seen rank him as high as a top 10 outfielder.  The price he will bring for the risk he represents is too high.  Juan Pierre is a full-time player again, and his fantasy value will take a huge rebound.  After filling in very nicely for Manny Ramirez during his suspension, the White Sox are going to let him lead off in 2010.  He can still hit and steal bases, but will cost less than the last time he was a full time player.

Fourth Tier:  Chris Coghlan, Alfonso Soriano, Alex Rios, Marlon Byrd, Vernon Wells, Carlos Gonzalez, Jay Bruce, Johnny Damon, Franklin Gutierrez, Magglio Ordonez, Mike Cameron, Corey Hart, J.D. Drew, Garrett Jones, Julio Borbon, Jeff Francoeur, Carlos Gomez, Milton Bradley, Carlos Beltran, Coco Crisp, Chris Young, Josh Willingham, Kyle Blanks, Mark Teahen, Conor Jackson, Elijah Dukes, Mark DeRosa, Melky Cabrera, David Dejesus, Cody Ross, Rajai Davis, Lastings Milledge, Jose Guillen, Juan Rivera, Matt LaPorta

Chris Coghlan is a nice little player.  He will be overrated in 2010 fantasy baseball drafts, and overpriced too.  To read a complete analysis, read Coghlan’s Player Profile.  Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Beltran both appear to be in decline as well as significant injury risks.  Beltran now finds himself in trouble with the Mets due to a recent surgery which could jeopardize his status for opening day.  Do not pay for their names.  Alex Rios has the confidence of manager Ozzie Guillen.  He should play every day, and will likely rebound a good bit.  His reputation (both on and off the field) has taken a beating over the last year, so you may be able to steal him cheap.  Want a cheap option in the outfield that has both power and speed?  Look to Franklin Gutierrez.  He will fly under the radar at fantasy drafts and auctions, but has his playing time locked it, and can serve as an above average 3rd outfielder.  I am very skeptical of Marlon Byrd.  This guy has a fairly long track record, and 2009 was his first truly good season.  While his batting average has made progress over the last few seasons, the power came from nowhere and his BB rate was his lowest since 2002.

Julio Borbon is going to be one of the unproven players in 2010 auctions that goes for big money.  He may, however, be worth it.  He has been announced as a starter for 2010, and his speed and batting average appear to be for real.  He could even throw in above average power for a speedster in Arlington.  Speaking of potential that will cost you, Carlos Gonzalez put up enough of a stat-line that fantasy GMs are not going to look past him.  Highly touted, Gonzalez put up 13 HR and 16 SB in under 300 ABs.  I am hoping that Carlos Gomez will slip under the radar of my competition.  His batting average could be lower than I would like, but if his price matches, I like the upside he offers with a full-time job for the Brewers.  He is crazy fast, but keep your bidding low since his OBP has been under .300 for three straight seasons.  Kyle Blanks is another player who’s 2009 numbers are mediocre enough that he could slip under the radar.  The kid is huge, has huge power, and will start all season.  Sure, the ballpark and supporting cast hurt his numbers, but you aren’t drafting him to be your #1 outfielder.  As a #3 or 4 he should be above average.

Could this be the season that Jay Bruce finally establishes himself as a true fantasy asset?  Yes, I think so.  While the casual fantasy GM will look at the batting average drop he suffered in 2009, the secondary numbers paint a different picture.  His AB/HR ratio went up, his BB/K rate went up, and his BABIP for 2009 was absurdly low (.222).  If those GMs that loved him have soured on him due to his BA, grab him at a discount.  Power galore.  Conor Jackson had a very odd season in 2009.  He was suffering from valley fever, which is a disease caught from the spores of a desert fungi.  Wow.  He is tearing the cover off of the ball in the off-season, and should pick up where he left off in 2008, a potential breakout with a good BA.  He qualifies as a sleeper this year, since he is being ranked very low in many draft prep articles and fantasy baseball rankings.

Chris Young had a miserable 2009, and that continues a trend of bad news.  For two straight years his power has dropped.  For two straight years his batting average has dropped.  For two straight years, his stolen bases have dropped, his K rate has risen, and his OPS has dropped.  These are all very worrying signs.  Strangely, he did post his major league best BB rate in 2009 (though he didn’t use that to steal a single base after the All-Star Break).  He also picked up the pace in September and October, having his best month of the year.  If you can slip him by, he definitely still has good upside, but I would want him to fall into my lap rather than pay more than a couple dollars.

A similar disappointing season was turned in by Elijah Dukes.  This kid has all the talent in the world, but can’t seem to put it all together.  He is seeing fewer fastballs (49.1%-2009 vs. 56.9%-2008) and this helped him put up the worst K rate of his major league career (20.3%).  Another number of note for Dukes in 2009: 3 SB, 10 CS.  Rajai Davis is another player who’s numbers from 2009 will prevent him from having “sleeper” status in 2010 fantasy baseball auctions.  There is no such thing as a sleeper that put up 40+ stolen bases the season before.  I would like to see his K rate get a little better if he is to bat leadoff, but his minor league numbers support his 2009 batting average.

Fifth Tier: Delmon Young, Luke Scott, Aaron Rowand, Xavier Nady, Nick Swisher, Jack Cust, Gerardo Parra, Jake Fox, Garret Anderson, Randy Winn, Ryan Garko, Willy Taveras, Skip Schumaker, Scott Podsednik, Colby Rasmus, Ryan Church, Chris Dickerson, Kosuke Fukudome, Matt Diaz, Jonny Gomes, Carlos Guillen, Travis Snider, Dexter Fowler, Andruw Jones, Rick Ankiel, Brett Gardner

Andruw Jones was at least productive in 2009.  He has a chance to get even more ABs in 2010, and could improve more.  Gerardo Parra will have to play well to receive playing time in what could become a crowded Arizona outfield, but he has upside.  Scott Podsednik still has a little juice left in his legs.  Just don’t forget that 2009 was his first season with over 215 ABs since 2006.  Chris Dickerson improved his BB/K rate in 2009, and could show more power in 2010.  He is a qualified post-hype sleeper pick if he can manage to get the ABs.  Matt Diaz’ batting average against RHP will keep him from ever truly claiming a full-time gig.  Colby Rasmus has power, but his batting average is a concern, especially against lefties.  Dexter Fowler is a nice sleeper.  His numbers against righties are not great, but he smokes lefties, and will start from day one in 2010.

The average will be there, but what else?

The 2009 National League Rookie of the Year did not really put up the fantasy production we have come to expect from the winner of that distinguished award.  Chris Coghlan certainly had a fine season.  However, just because he won Rookie of the Year, doesn’t justify paying overpaying for him in your fantasy baseball auction.  Many GMs shelled out big bucks to protect or draft several of the recent ROY winners.  Recent winners of the N.L. ROY include: Ryan Braun, Hanley Ramirez, Ryan Howard, Jason Bay, and Albert Pujols.  Those names put up some incredible numbers in their rookie season, which made fantasy baseball GMs pay top dollar to either draft or protect those players.  Those who did were, for the most part, very happy with the results of their decision.

Yet there were some other names sprinkled in these last several years that did not pan out quite so well for owners that drafted them.  Those who decided to pay for Geovany Soto, Dontrelle Willis, Jason Jennings, and Scott Williamson (other recent N.L. ROY winners) were not quite so happy with the results.  Chris Coghlan could easily turn out to be a name on this second list.  So we ask that age old questions:  What are realistic fantasy baseball projections for Chris Coghlan in 2010?  and, How much should you pay for him in your 2010 fantasy baseball auction?

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Minor League Career

On the positive side, there are not a whole lot of minor league statistics for us to examine for Coghlan.  He played in at least part of 3 minor league seasons from 2006-2008, for a total of 277 games and just over 1000 ABs.  While this may make it harder to predict what he will do in the major leagues, it is a sign that his managers and coaches thought he was progressing nicely, and had the talent to perform in the show.  During his minor league stint, Coghlan accrued a BA of .293, an OBP of .384, and walked more than he struck out (BB-142, SO-137).  These are all great signs for Coghlan’s ability to hit.  Plate discipline is one of the major stumbling blocks that cause many a baseball prospect to falter and fail to achieve greatness.  Fortunately for those who will pay the price for Coghaln, he appears to be able to dodge this particular bullet.

Batting average, however, is only part of the equation you must calculate when looking at what Coghlan may do in the 2010 season.  While Coghlan can hit the occasional home run, he did not prove to be a power hitter in the minors.  He managed to hit only 19 home runs in the aforementioned 3 seasons.  So while the 24 year-old may develop more power as he ages, there is no indication that he will suddenly develop the power that fantasy GMs are looking for.  He did steal a good amount of bases while playing in the minors.  At his longest minor league stop (483 ABs for AA-Carolina) he stole 34 bases.  Granted, he was also caught 10 times, but it does show that he has the speed to make an impact on one’s fantasy roster if he were given the green light on the base-paths.

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2009

Chris Coghlan had a good 2009 season.  Well, let’s be a little more specific.  He had a awesome second half to the 2009 season.  In the first half, Coghlan hit a meager .245 over 200 ABs.  No big deal though, since it was his first appearance in the show, and struggles can be expected for a young player.  The second half of the season was completely different.  Coghlan hit .372 in his 304 ABs after the All-Star Break with an OBP of .423.  Sick numbers, right?  For the season he hit over .300 against both left-handed and right-handed pitching.  He hit over .290 both at home and away.  Coghlan’s power numbers were right in line with his minor league stats, hitting a home run every 56 ABs.  Though he did hit 7 home runs after the All-Star Break versus 2 before.  While Coghlan showed speed in the minors, as stated above his successful stolen base rate was somewhat lacking.  This fact was even more apparent in the big leagues, as he was caught stealing 5 times in his 13 attempts.

Another departure from his minor league numbers was his 2009 BB/K rate (53BB/77K).  From walking more than striking out in the minors, to walking 24 times less than striking out is a significant decline.  The decline is troubling, yet his contact rate on balls he swung at was great (84.2%), and his contact rate on balls swung at in the strike zone was nuts (91.7%).  This leads me to believe that while he may not walk at as great a rate as he did in the minors, striking out will not be a big problem for Coghlan.  Thanks again to Fangraphs.com for their excellent stats.

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Warning Signs

The warning signs for Coghlan are not directly apparent.  Statistically, Coghlan has proven to be a competent major league hitter.  The only batting average related statistic that perhaps waves a small red flag is that his BABIP was 33 points higher on the big club in 2009 than it was in his 2008 minor league season (2009- .366, 2008- .333).  Despite this, it is a good bet that he will continue to hit for a good batting average. If he continues to hit at the top of the order, then he will continue to score runs.  That is, however, only two of the five major fantasy baseball scoring categories.  His power may spike for a season or two here or there, but he does not project to develop regular 20 HR power, especially while playing half his games at Land Shark Stadium.  His 47% ground ball rate, and low HR/FB rate support that premise.  While he was able to steal a good total of bases in the minors, he managed to steal only 8 bases in 13 attempts during 2009.  This is a miserable success rate, let alone for a lead-off hitter.  In fact, his rate was only 50% over the second half of 2009 (4SB, 4CS).  If this was a technique issue, his success rate should have climbed as he was coached on how to steal at the major league level.  So while he has the on-base skills to maintain his standing as a top of the order hitter, there is only so much that he can do with those opportunities.

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Fantasy Implications

Coghlan has gotten a ton of press since the All-Star Break of 2009.  To be honest, his profile is higher than it should be.  He is a nice fantasy commodity if you are looking for a 4th outfielder.  He will help you negate another active player’s terrible batting average, and score more runs than the average player.  However, if you are counting on him to take another big step forward in the power and speed categories, you are asking to be disappointed.  There is nothing that shows that he is going to grow significantly in those areas.  Coghlan won the award, which means everyone will know his name.  With a second half batting average so high, people will know his stats.  The point is that you are not going to get him cheap unless you can protect him for the small price you drafted him for in 2009.  So we have a steady hitter that will score runs, not hit for much power, not steal for a few bases, that won a huge award causing everyone in your league to know who he is.

This is not a fantasy baseball sleeper.  This is not a breakout candidate.  This is a very nice piece that you can use on your team for the right price.  Bump his value up a bit if you can keep him or draft him at 2B.  The key is realizing that, and not paying to much to get him on your roster.  Batting average is nice, but it also fluctuates.  If you are depending on a player to hit for a high average to justify the price you are going to pay, and they don’t, that is just wasted money.  Despite all the stats that indicate that he will continue to hit well, stranger things have happened than a second-year player hitting significantly worse than he did in his rookie year.  Some bad luck and a downturn in his BABIP and the player you think of as your “stud, rookie of the year, keeper” is just a slightly better version of Skip Schumaker.

2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections: .308 BA, 11 HR, 42 RBI, 90 R, 12 SB, 605 AB