Q:  Is Francisco Liriano’s good off-season performance going to continue against big league hitters?

Francisco Liriano is sure to be on many 2010 fantasy baseball sleeper lists.  His phenomenal potential which he displayed in 2006 is not going to just be forgotten.  Though his numbers in 2009 were awful, smart and attentive GMs will know that he has been throwing very well this off-season.  Reportedly hitting 95 mph, he posted a .186 BAA with a 1.54 ERA and .86 WHIP in the Dominican Winter League.  Now, we have to be aware that Liriano’s winter ball numbers are an extremely small sample size (11.7 IN).  Every pitcher goes through stretches where they seem to be untouchable, and certainly 12 innings is not enough to decide that Liriano is back to form.  However, if he comes into spring training and starts putting up similar ratios against tougher competition, he could be a gem for those of us that have paid close enough attention.

Q:  Is Brandon Wood ready to hit at the major league level?

I have been waiting for Brandon Wood to get a legitimate shot at a starting job for several seasons now.  It is very likely that you have been too.  However, you have to be aware that when he popped onto our radars, the picture we had in our heads was of a 40+ home run hitting shortstop.  Now that he will be playing third base, part of that value is gone.  Also, his K/BB rate has seen little progress in his limited major league ABs.  With the starting job all but handed to him for 2010, this spring should give us a little view of what could be coming.  If he continues to strike out much more than walk, I will greatly reduce the price I am willing to pay.  If he makes some progress, I would bump him up on my sleeper list.

Q:  Was David Ortiz’ power outage an aberration or the beginnings of a decline?

When talking purely about power, spring training is not really something for which we are going to get a definitive answer.  After all, many of the ABs that David Ortiz will receive this spring will be against pitchers that are not ready to face major league hitters.  A couple of 85 mph fastballs at the wrong time could result in home runs that taint the sample we get to see from a power hitter.  Supposedly, Ortiz has been pulling the ball more in recent seasons, and an opposite field approach could help his numbers.  With a failed PED test, there is reason to believe that hitting the ball to left field is not the real reason his power numbers have dropped.

Q:  Will Grady Sizemore return to put up numbers close to his past 30-30 performance?

With two separate surgeries in 2009, I am willing to chalk Grady Sizemore’s poor numbers up to injury.  Yet, a smart fantasy GM will have to accept that the risk of injury is increased.  Also, it is very possible that there could be some residual decline due to last year’s problems.  A elbow injury could continue to affect his power, and a groin injury could keep him from running as much.  This is in addition to the fact that the Indians are offensively terrible.  A reduction in the number of runs he will score should be assumed.  With Sizemore moving to the second slot in the batting order, his RBI total may improve, but that is far from assured.  He is young enough to return to elite status, but fantasy GMs should be a little skeptical until they see him playing without restriction.

Q:  How will Matt LaPorta find the ABs he needs to break-out in 2010?

The addition of Russell Branyan has put a haze around the role of one of 2010’s biggest fantasy baseball sleepers.  When Branyan first signed, I along with most baseball people assumed that he would be filling a part time or DH role.  However, Manny Acta said that Branyan has the inside track on the starting first base job.  Most of us assumed that Matt LaPorta would get the shot that we have been waiting for him to get.  Now it appears as though he will either have to win a job in the outfield (likely at the expense of Michael Brantley) or have Branyan stumble early to get a full season of ABs.  Personally, I am skeptical that Branyan can stay both healthy and effective for long stretches of time, so LaPorta should get his shot.

Q:  What the heck is the Royals starting lineup going to look like?

This is not an easy question, as their roster contains a ton of players that have been starters in the past, and also many players that have the potential to be better than those starters.  Players such as Rick Ankiel, Alberto Callaspo, Yuniesky Betancourt, and David Dejesus have held starting jobs before.  They had better produce, however, because the off-season has seen the addition of Josh Fields and Chris Getz.  That, combined with the return of Mike Aviles, could drastically change that starting lineup.  Another large question is how much faith they have in Alex Gordon.  With Fields able to play both third base and the outfield (not that his defense is very good at either position), there are not many players other than Billy Butler that should feel their job is safe.

Q:  Is Alfonso Soriano’s knee healthy?

You should get the visions of a return to 40-40 form out of your head right now (even 30-30 is just ridiculous).  With the injuries Alfonso Soriano has suffered, it is unclear how much of the decline in his numbers is due to those ailments and how much is due to an eroding skill set.  Having a bad knee certainly reduces his stolen base potential, and it is not hard to imagine that it has drained part of his power as well.  Reports out of Cubs camp are that his knee is not yet 100%, but it is better than it was last season.  The question is how much better, and will he be able to make a rebound in 2010?  Spring training could give us a little insight into how much he will be worth (or should be discounted) in 2010 fantasy baseball auctions and drafts.  At the least we should see how healthy he really is.

Q:  Who will win the starting center-field job for the Reds?

I briefly covered this situation in the latest Quick Fix article.  While no one will deny that Chris Dickerson has the tools to develop into a quality major league hitter, Drew Stubbs greatly outperformed him when given the chance in 2009.  Dusty Baker has come forward and said that Stubbs deserves to play because of that performance.  If Dickerson can prove that he has rediscovered the power that left him last year, he could push the issue.  However, at this point it seems that Stubbs is the frontrunner.

Q:  Will Jay Bruce learn to hit lefties?

The reality is that the spring will probably not give us enough information to answer this question, but you should be aware that this is the major stumbling block Jay Bruce has met with in his young career.  We all know that he has massive power potential in his bat, but that alone is not enough to justify the large price which he is sure to command.  After hitting .190 against lefties in 2008 and .210 in 2009, he still has work to do in order to keep his overall BA from hurting fantasy teams.  That said, he proved that he can hit in the minor leagues, and is still young enough to have those skills translate into major league ability.

Bobby Jenks  (RP – CWS) –  I like Bobby Jenks for the 2010 season.  He has showed up to camp 20 pounds lighter, and has quit drinking alcohol.  In 2009 his K/9 rate rose for the first time in years, and he seems to be re-decicating himself to his craft.  His job security is fairly high, and if he actually can continue to maintain a good K rate, he should be just as strong as he usually is.  Bump him up a few slots on your cheat sheets.

Troy Glaus  (1B/3B – ATL) –  Troy Glaus makes for an interesting fantasy baseball sleeper in 2010.  He is healthy, and looking good early in camp.  Of course, just because he is healthy at this particular moment doesn’t mean that he will stay that way, and you should be aware that drafting Glaus contains some risk of injury.  However, if you can get him late or cheap, he should be able to provide nice pop.  His defense at first base is still a project, so track the progress he makes during the spring to make sure a full season of ABs is assured (barring injury).

Rajai Davis  (OF – OAK) –  According to Ricky Henderson, Davis has the speed to lead the league in stolen bases in 2010.  However, the crowded nature of the Oakland outfield makes me worry about him getting the ABs he would need to do so.  After 404 major league ABs in 2007 and 2008 during which he struggled to maintain a decent batting average, 2009 saw him hit over .300 for the first time.  He still needs to work on taking walks more often, but he did hit for a decent average in the minor leagues.

Jose Reyes  (SS – NYM) –  In his first AB, Jose Reyes hit a triple and ran without a problem.  This is a good sign for those of you in keeper leagues that held him over for 2010.  However, it does not mean that the risk involved in owning him has gone away.  He will still be one play away from re-injuring that hamstring all year long.  I have said it before: Jose Reyes is the highest risk/reward gamble for the 2010 season, and he won’t be cheap.

Drew Stubbs  (OF – CIN) –  While Chris Dickerson wants to start, Dusty Baker is unwilling to remove Drew Stubbs from the center field slot until he has a reason to do so.  Dickerson was given a chance to win the job last season, but injury and a lack of pop made the Reds look for other options.  Stubbs stepped up last season, and posted 8 HRs and 10 SBs in only 180 ABs.  While his K/BB rate could stand some improvement, it seems that he has a little more offensive potential than the athletic Dickerson.  Baker can be unpredictable with younger players (unless we are talking about pitchers, in which case he will abuse their arms) so a platoon could develop.  However, it seems that Stubbs will have to falter in order to open the door for Dickerson to play as a starter.  Right now, however, it looks like Stubbs is a nice sleeper who’s 2009 numbers are low profile enough for him to slip under your competition’s radar.

James Loney  (1B – LAD) –  Apparently James Loney put on a good amount of muscle in the off season.  He says that he thinks this year his power will take a step forward.  There are three possible outcomes.  He could: 1) Stay the same player he has been.  2) He could be right and hit for more power.  3) He could be wrong, but trying to hit for more power could take away from his batting average.  Overall, statements like “this is the year I will hit for more power” should not affect the price you are willing to pay for a player.

Pablo Sandoval (1B/3B – SF) –  Pablo Sandoval is now wearing prescription goggles in the batter’s box.  The thought that he was able to hit so well while not seeing the ball clearly should scare the living hell out of all pitchers.  He could be scary-good in 2010.

Jose Bautista  (OF – TOR) –  Believe it or not, Bautista is currently the favorite to start in right field for the Blue Jays.  Yes, I am just as surprised as you are, and no, I do not expect that situation to last very long.  More likely it is a motivational tool being used to get Travis Snider to step up this season.  Bautista is a .238 career hitter, and does not offer the power that the Jays lack.