A.L. ROY – Michael Brantley –  Will win the job, hit for average, steal bases.

N.L. ROY – Jason Heyward – Should be starting from the beginning of the season.

A.L. Cy Young – Zach Greinke (second place – Felix Hernandez) That’s right, folks.  He is for real.

N.L. Cy Young – Tim Lincecum (second place – Dan Haren) Haren finally puts it together in the second half, but The Freak is just too good.

A.L. Fantasy MVP – Ian Kinsler –  I am a believer that he can get that batting average.

N.L. Fantasy MVP – Albert Pujols –  How can anyone deny this?

A.L. Hitter Breakout – Adam Jones –  If he can keep that left foot healthy, he should thrive.

N.L. Hitter Breakout – Jay Bruce –  Gotta figure out the lefties, but 3rd time is the charm.

A.L. Pitcher Breakout - Matt Garza –  K rate spiked in 2009, wins should follow.

N.L. Pitcher Breakout – Clayton Kershaw –  So young, and ready to join the elite.

A.L. Hitter Most Overpaid for – Aaron Hill –  Don’t you believe that 30 HRs are assured.

N.L. Hitter Most Overpaid for –  Mark Reynolds –  Too much room for doubt.  Only sure thing is a bad BA.

A.L. Pitcher Most Overpaid for – Javier Vazquez –  A.L., ballpark working against ratios.

N.L. Pitcher Most Overpaid for – Ubaldo Jimenez –  Too wild.

A.L. Shakiest Closer (with job now) – Brian Fuentes –  Most saves in 2009, terrible WHIP, Angels signed Rodney.

N.L. Shakiest Closer (with job now) – Brandon Lyon – What were the Astros thinking?

A.L. Bargain Closer – Rafael Soriano –  Health is the only risk here.

N.L. Best Bargain Closer – Billy Wagner –  Wasn’t really in any decline before injury.

A.L. Best Save Vulture – Fernando Rodney –  Only a matter of time…

N.L. Best Save Vulture – Jason Motte –  Franklin’s numbers way beyond career averages.  Motte spits fire.

A.L. Comeback Player – Adrian Beltre –  Change to a good team in a better park while healthy should make him a bargain.

N.L. Comeback Player – Brandon Webb –  Best sinker in the game.

A.L. Sleeper to Watch – Clay Buchholz –  4 pitches and now a bit of seasoning.  Sounds a lot like Greinke.

N.L. Sleeper to Watch – Kyle Blanks –  Big man, big power, showed up in shape.

A.L. Take a Flyer on – Brandon Wood –  This could finally be the time..

N.L. Take a Flyer on – Eric Young Jr. –  Speed to burn, gotta find a place to play.

UNDER/OVER

18 HRS for David Wright - OVER (22)

.300 BA for Jason Bartlett – UNDER (.290)

28 HRs for Joe Mauer – UNDER (22)

180 IN for Chris Carpenter – OVER (210)

30 Saves for Rafael Soriano – OVER (37)

50 SBs for Nyjer Morgan – OVER (52)

4.0 ERA for Javier Vazquez – OVER (4.30)

400 ABs for Mike Napoli – OVER (460)

4.0 Post All-Star Break ERA for Dan Haren – UNDER (3.30)

In the arms race, my measure for predicting success is to look at the number of innings the arm in question has logged.  For hitters, success prediction is based ultimately in the number of at bats accrued and what that hitter has done with them.  So why not do the same with pitchers?  Let’s say we use 500-600 major league innings as the barometer.  Similar to the age 26-28 theory on the offensive side, pitchers seem to hit their stride around the 500 inning mark.  Give or take a few innings.  So let’s take a look at each of my break out candidates and see where they sit as we prepare to open the 2010 season.

Scott Baker  (MIN) –  2009 :  200.o IN, 15 W, 4.37 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 162 K

The 2009 season marked Baker’s 1^st time hitting the 200 inning mark, a major bar for most up and coming pitchers to hit.  What did he do with those innings?  He won 15 games and maintained excellent control despite what seemed to be a disastrous beginning.  Between 2008 and 2009 Baker saw a modest decrease in his already excellent BB/9, while maintaining and excellent 7 K’s/9.  Armed with a K/BB ratio of 3.38, Baker seems poised to really take off this year.  A savvy drafter will note that not only does Minnesota consistently develop pitchers with alarmingly terrific control, they also develop pitchers who exhibit tremendous mental composure.  Baker’s rebound from such a poor start last year coupled with his control, indicate to me that this bargain pitcher could be a major score if you draft him in the right spot—a number 3 or 4 pitcher in your rotation.

Jered Weaver  (LAA) – 2009 :  211.0 IN, 16 W, 3.75 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 174 K

It seems we’ve been talking about Jeff’s kid brother for some time now, and this year could be the year he breaks out in a major way.  Along with Baker, Weaver finally cleared the 200 inning bar and made the most of it.  Unlike Baker, Weaver jumped out of the gate looking like an all-star.  Sure, he tailed off toward the end of the year, but his rise in innings could certainly account for a wear and tear that would make any pitcher tire out.  What did he do with those 200+ innings?  Only throw 4 complete games and 2 shut-outs (not too far off the key Cy Young peripherals that most critics look at when voting).  He also lowered his BAA nicely, and gave us his highest strikeout total to date while lowering his WHIP for the third straight year.  If he can lower his BB/9 this year, I say he breaks out in a big way and the Angels maintain their playoff bound ways behind this arm.

Jorge De La Rosa  (COL) – 2009 :  185.0 IN, 16 W, 4.38 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 193 K

Everyone is talking about Ubaldo Jiminez, and for the right reasons.  However, people seem to be forgetting about Mr. De La Rosa and his rise to prominence.  Now, De La Rosa has had the career of a journey man, playing for 3 teams in 5 years.  If you look closely, his ability to keep the ball in the park in Colorado has managed to help him increase his K/BB ratio, lower his BAA, and throw more innings and ultimately win more games.  With a 9 K/9 arm, watch him bolster Colorado’s young rotation and keep them in contention for years to come.

Gavin Floyd  (CWS) – 2009 :  193.0 IN, 11 W, 4.06 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 163 K

Here’s a guy who was said to possess such a wicked 12-6-er, that his success in the majors was a matter of “when”, not “if”.  Floyd has seemed to find a nice home on the south side of Chicago.  In his 3 years with the White Sox, Floyd has lowered his HR/9 all the way under 1, and with that has seen increased success.  In a park where the longball can kill a pitcher, this shows an ability to adapt his game and the ability to bring it to another level.  In the last two years, he has seen his K/9 numbers rise while decreasing his BB/9.  All while preventing the killer home runs.  I say this is the year the once hailed arm rises to prominence in the AL Central.

Jon Lester  (BOS) – 2009 :  203.3 IN, 15 W, 3.41 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 225 K

Here’s another guy we’ve been hearing about for years as the Sox’s ace in the making.  Sure Clay Bucholtz has taken over that title as Lester has ensconced himself in the rotation with an arm that can flat out put people away.  We have watched his K/9 rise and rise and rise until it finally exploded last year with almost 10 K’s per 9.  If he can maintain that, he will continue to see success and could even possibly put himself in line to win 18-19 games with the defense Epstein has put behind his hurlers.

Tim Lincecum  (SF) – 2009 :  225.1 IN, 15 W, 2.48 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 261

Could it be possible that this kid gets better?  Well, he is entering his third full season and has logged the necessary 500-600 innings.  It’s what he has done with those innings that makes him a break out pitcher.  He gave up less hits per innings pitched than the year prior, lowered his already ridiculous HR/9 rate and gave up less walks as well.  He’s seen his K/9 go up and up and I say it continues to go up.  He brought his BAA down to almost below .200—and for a guy that throws 7-8 innings per start – that is just ridiculous consistency and improvement.  This is the year he gets even better and, while not a surprise, breaks into the super elite territory that was once manned by the Johan Santanas of the world.

Starting Pitchers

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Top Tier:  Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia, Johan Santana, Dan Haren, Zack Greinke, Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez

Tim Lincecum is just awesome.  He shows no signs of slowing down.  Roy Halladay had a strong case to win the A.L. Cy Young Award in 2009.  Other names come and go, Roy Halladay is still in the top tier.  CC Sabathia could win 15 games in his sleep on the mighty Yankees.  His ratios were still very good despite the home run bonanza at Yankee Stadium.  Johan Santana has been too good for too long to doubt.  I have no problems believing that he will have a very strong 2010.  Zach Greinke actually did win the A.L. Cy Young Award, and was excellent in 2009.  With his anxiety issues behind him, and 4 “plus” pitches, he could be atop this list for a long time.

Dan Haren’s numbers in 2009 were excellent even with a second half that was very pedestrian.  If he could just put it together for a full season, he could be the best pitcher in the game.  Justin Verlander finally had that complete breakout season.  Once the lid is off of the strikeout jar, I expect them to keep coming.  He got his ratios under control from a down 2008, putting up his third year out of four with an ERA under 4.0.  Felix Hernandez took a nice step forward in 2009.  He got his BB rate back down, and his HR rate dropped for the third straight season.  His BABIP in 2009 was a little low, so his ratios may uptick slightly.

Second Tier:  Adam Wainwright, Jon Lester, Cliff Lee, Josh Beckett, Chris Carpenter, Cole Hamels, Javier Vazquez, Matt Cain, John Lackey, Brandon Webb, Jake Peavy, Clayton Kershaw, Yovani Gallardo, Ubaldo Jimenez, Ted Lilly, Josh Johnson, Jair Jurrjens

These guys are still very good options, and many of them are capable of putting up first tier numbers.  Some had off years, some are one category short of being great, and some have yet to provide enough track record to justify paying top tier prices.  To all of you Adam Wainwright owners that don’t like seeing his name this low:  Chill.  If he does in 2010 what he did in 2009, he will be in the top tier.  Personally, I am not willing to pay what is going to be top dollar for a guy with such a short track record of first tier type success.  All of Jon Lester’s numbers are headed in the right direction for a breakout season.  With a rising K rate, a falling BB rate, and BAA that has dropped two straight years, this could be the last chance to get him without paying very top dollar (if it isn’t too late already).  Cliff Lee got shipped off to Seattle.  The ballpark there will help him, but the supporting cast and the change back to the American League will not.  Josh Beckett always seems to be in the second tier.  His stats tick up, and his stats tick down.  However, he just does not seem to be able to stay at the top of the fantasy baseball pitching rankings.

Chris Carpenter managed to stay healthy in 2009, and he was just as good as we remembered.  I kept waiting for the wheels to come off that bus, and it just kept rolling.  There is definitely still a little risk of injury with him, but he is good enough when healthy to lead your rotation.  Cole Hamels not only had an off-year, but his post-season comments are sure to cost him positions in 2010 snake drafts.  Grab him.  He is so good, and this is a buy low opportunity of which smart GMs will take advantage.  His BABIP was 55 points higher in 2009 than in 2008, and his BB/9 rate was unchanged.  I am skeptical that Javier Vazquez will have as much success in 2010 as he did in 2009.  The change back to the American League along with the move from a pitchers park to one that favors hitters could spell higher ratios.  Beware.  Matt Cain just keeps plugging along and getting better with age.  There are a couple of signs that his ratios will correct towards his career averages.  Firstly, his BABIP was .268 in 2009, that was well under his usual.  Also, he let up his highest HR rate of his career in 2009.  Although wins may continue to be a problem on the lowly Giants, he remains a quality investment.    John Lackey continues to be a good option, however two straight seasons pitching under 200 innings are a warning sign not to chase him too far.

The next two pitchers have been staples in the top tier in recent years.  Brandon Webb has perhaps the best sinker in the game.  He had shoulder problems that cost him all of 2009, and is a high risk/reward play in 2010.  Watch him in the spring and adjust your price on his health.  Jake Peavy is not only coming back from injury, but now moves to the American League and a hitter’s park.  That did not seem to slow him down at all at the end of 2009.  Unlike Javier Vazquez (who has a mixed track record of success and failure), Peavy has given us no reason to believe that the change in scenery will result in any difference in his stats except more wins.  Ted Lilly had a great season interrupted by injury in 2009, but should remain a low-profile source of wins and good ratios.

The next five starters are youngsters with great promise.  Clayton Kershaw made Dodger fans drool at what he did in a short 2009.  As a fantasy GM, contain that drool until you see his price.  His K/9 rate stood at 9.74, his BAA was .198, and he only gave up 119 hits in 171.0 IN.  If he can just get control of that high walk rate, this kid could be something to watch.  The fact that many youngsters never really overcome that problem is why you need to contain that drool.  Like Kershaw, Yovani Gallardo is some control away from being included in the next generation of elite pitchers.  With a K/9 rate in 2009 that was even better than Kershaw, he too has dominant stuff, holding batters to a .223 average in 2009.

Ubaldo Jimenez took another big step forward last year, improving on both his K/9 and BB/9 rates.  Despite pitching in Colorado, his ability to get ground-ball outs have kept home runs from being an issue.  Of the group, Josh Johnson has the best control. His allowed the fewest walks of the group in 2009, and his K rate was only a bit lower than Kershaw and Gallardo.  In that ballpark, he could even improve on these numbers.  Jair Jurrjens is only 24 years old this season.  He built a second excellent campaign on top of a great rookie season.  Across the board, his numbers improved.  The potential is there to increase the strikeouts as he gets stronger.

Third Tier:  James Shields, A.J. Burnett, Jered Weaver, Matt Garza, Scott Baker, Chad Billingsley, Scott Kazmir, Tommy Hanson, Roy Oswalt, Carlos Zambrano, Ricky Nolasco, J.A. Happ, Francisco Liriano, Max Scherzer, Ryan Dempster, John Danks, Rich Harden, Andy Pettitte, Derek Lowe, Neftali Feliz, Clay Buchholz, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Brett Anderson,

James Shields was quite the disappointment in 2009.  He let up a career high in home runs, let up 20 more hits than innings pitched, and his walk rate was the worst since his first season in the show.  Perhaps he should go back to working mostly fastball/chageup and less of the curveball.  He has good odds for a rebound but don’t overlook his struggles.  A.J. Burnett’s ratios (as expected) were not excellent, but thats what happens when you let up 21 home runs and walk 97 batters. He did pitch over 200 innings in back to back seasons for the first time.  He also came through with the strikeouts, but only 13 wins was disappointing.  This is what Burnett is, and there is no reason to expect drastic improvement (except for wins, since the Yankees are a scoring machine).

Scott Baker showed flashes of brilliance in 2009.  Since he has excellent control (as shown by just issuing 48 walks in over 200 innings during 2009), his WHIP is above average.  After the All-Star Break he went 8-2 with a 3.28 ERA.  If you are looking for a mild sleeper that could outperform his price greatly, this is where you should look.  Chad Billingsley was cruising right along through the first half of 2009 putting up numbers right in line with the stats that made GMs pay large amounts in auctions.  The second half of the season, those stats took a sharp turn downward.  His owners were looking for fewer walks, but Billingsley’s BB/9 rate remained unchanged.  While his ERA went up close to a run, his BAA actually went down 10 points.  Take the discount and run.

Whichever GM in your league goes for the “next big thing” every season will go after Tommy Hanson this year.  I personally would rather go for one of the above options that are more proven.  Hanson may be good, but 124 innings is not enough of a sample size for me to pay what my competition will.  It seems everywhere I look, Ricky Nolasco is ranked absurdly high.  He definitely has huge upside, and in 2009 his K/9 rate went up significantly.  It is the 23 home runs that worry me.  His control is above average for a pitcher his age, so if he can keep the ball in the yard, he can quickly improve on that 5.06 ERA he posted in 2009.  If that ERA scares away other owners and the price remains reasonable, grab him.  If it enters 2nd tier prices, let him go.  Supposedly, Francisco Liriano is pitching very well with good velocity in winter ball.  With the amount of time that has gone by since he has been good, and the numbers he has put up since, Liriano will be cheaper than ever.  If he is healthy this spring, he will be an excellent gamble.

J.A. Happ made a strong case for National League Rookie of the Year.  I am not as impressed as a fantasy GM.  He is a fly-ball pitcher in a hitter’s ballpark.  His K/9 rate was only 6.45 in 2009, and his LOB% was very high.  While Happ will be a name everyone knows in your league, he is not one that will be worth the gamble.  As you have read, I usually downgrade a pitcher for moving from the National League to the American League.  The one case this season where that is not true is in the case of Max Scherzer.  The ballpark in Detroit is more friendly to pitchers, and the Tigers will win more games than the Diamondbacks.  Scherzer has good stuff, a nice K rate, and could take a nice step forward on a team that is actually competitive.  After a strong 2008, most of Ryan Dempster’s numbers ticked down towards his career averages in 2009.  It looks like his new improved control is for real, but he will never be a great pitcher for WHIP purposes.  It is the same old story for Rich Harden.  If he is healthy, he could be one of the top pitchers in the game.  Now he also has to pitch half his games in a hitter’s ballpark.

Clay Buchholz has four good pitches and could emerge this season as a good fantasy asset.  It is true that Boston is a tough place to break into the big leagues and find immediate success, but if he does it will be huge for fantasy purposes.  He reminds me a bit of Zack Greinke.  Neftali Feliz has my Ranger-fan-friend very excited.  He has the K-rate, but needs some more control.  There is upside here, fantasy baseball sleeper alert!!  It now appears that Daisuke Matsuzaka was injured for pretty much all of 2009.  It sounds a little bit like an excuse (since this news just was revealed recently), but a rebound is possible.  I would not pay as though it were certain, though.  Brett Anderson appears to have both the K-rate and the control to be a very good fantasy asset.  Could be a late sleeper, but a short track record makes him a less than certain bet.

Fourth Tier:  Scott Feldman, Joe Blanton, Randy Wolf, Mark Buehrle, Tim Hudson, Jonathan Sanchez, Aaron Harang, Kevin Millwood, Gavin Floyd, Dave Bush, Joe Saunders, Kevin Slowey, Erik Bedard, Hiroki Kuroda, Wandy Rodriguez, Rick Porcello, Edwin Jackson, Joba Chamberlain, Ben Sheets, Stephen Strasburg, Randy Wells, Joel Pineiro, Johnny Cueto, Brad Penny, Barry Zito, Ervin Santana, Aroldis Chapman, John Maine

Scott Feldman was surprisingly effective in 2009.  His 17 wins could draw some attention, but his ratios and mediocre strikeout rate could keep him of the radar.  If you throw out the 6 innings he pitched as a reliever (and gave up 9 runs) his numbers for the season get even more impressive.  He also faded down the stretch, posting his worst ERA in September.  I am just not a Joe Blanton fan.  He has not let up fewer hits than innings pitched since 2005, and he let up a career high HR/9 rate in 2009.  His LOB% was also a career high, indicating that more of his base runners will score in 2010.  Randy Wolf had an amazing season in 2009.  Treat it like what it is, a very nice, outlier of a season that fantasy GMs will overpay for.  Mark Buehrle threw a perfect game in 2009, and that will only add to how overrated he is in a fantasy sense.  He has not let up fewer hits than innings pitched since 2002.  I like that Ben Sheets has wound up in Oakland.  The ballpark is excellent for pitchers, and the low-pressure and expectations for the A’s will work in his favor.  He swears he is healthy, but all fantasy baseball GMs should know that it is still a risk.

Jonathan Sanchez has the Ks, but his control is still a long way from being a fantasy asset (2009- 163.3 IN, 88 BB).  Once he gets that control, look out.  Dave Bush’s season would not have been so bad if not for a come-backer that tore his bicep.  He never got back on track after that.  A late flier at best.  Ben Sheets is still a free agent at the time of this posting.  Even if he signs with a good team, his injury history make him a gamble.  Rick Porcello has some serious upside.  He is only 22 years old and is already finding success to the tune of 14 wins.  A little more control and a little more strength that comes with age, and he could be a gem.  If you haven’t been paying attention, you may have missed Hiroki Kuroda’s nice 2009 season.  He has yet to throw 200 innings in a season, but his numbers show that he has the ability to be effective when healthy.

Stephen Strasburg is supposedly a phenom, but it remains to be seen how much he will pitch in 2010.  He will most likely be overpriced.  Joba Chamberlain’s numbers are all moving in the wrong direction.  A Yankee pitcher over-hyped?  Wow.  Johnny Cueto did not really make much progress in 2009.  In fact his K/9 rate got worse.  Dusty Baker doesn’t care though, because he has a new young arm to abuse. Aroldis Chapman made a bad decision to sign with the Reds.  He will get his chance to shine this season, and if he is good Dusty will wear that arm out.  Recent reports have John Maine healthy again.  He was seen as a high upside pitcher after a good 2007, and will be a late sleeper for 2010.

Fifth Tier: Clayton Richard, Justin Masterson, Chris Volstad, David Price, Nick Blackburn, Luke Hochevar, Brian Matusz, Marc Rzepczynski, Jorge de la Rosa, Gil Meche, Jeff Niemann, Bronson Arroyo, Chris Young, Kevin Correia, Ricky Romero, Jason Hammel, Kenshin Kawakami, Kyle Lohse, Mike Pelfrey, Paul Maholm, Matt Latos, Shaun Marcum, Zach Duke, Bud Norris, Felipe Paulino, Garrett Mock, Trevor Cahill, Wade Davis, Brandon Marrow, Brett Cecil, David Huff, Gio Gonzalez, John Lannan, Jeremy Guthrie, Jon Garland, Koji Uehara, Manny Parra, Robinson Tejada, Ross Ohlendorf, Ryan Rowland-Smith, Carl Pavano, Scott Richmond, Sean West

Once you get this low, the upside starts getting thin.  After all, we are talking about a lot of 4th and 5th starters here (many on bad teams).  It may be time to think about grabbing a reliever that can help you in the ratios instead of taking on the risk a bad starter represents.  Brian Matusz has showed some upside in 8 starts in 2009, but is so young he should only be taken as a late flier.  Marc Rzepczynski only had a 61 inning sample size in the show last year, but his minor league track record make him a nice sleeper.  If he looks like he has earned a roster spot in the late spring, don’t hesitate to push him up your draft board a little.  Jeff Niemann also looked good in his rookie season.  His K rate leaves something to be desired, but he has upside.  Kenshin Kawakami may or may not have a rotation spot in 2010.  If he does he showed enough to make him worth drafting late.