Mark DeRosa  (3B/OF – SF) –  Mark DeRosa is still dealing with some soreness in his wrist.  He had surgery on it in the off-season and it has still not fully recovered.  This is very bad news for his fantasy value, which had already taken a big hit for two reasons.  Firstly, in 2009 his OBP dropped 60 points from his previous two seasons.  His strikeout rate took a huge jump, and he only gained 2 home runs from his 2008 total.  Secondly, he moved to the pitcher-friendly AT&T park (so him matching his 23 HR total from 2009 is far from likely).  He wasn’t a great pick before the news that his wrist is not healed.  Now, he is a terrible pick.

Nick Johnson  (1B – NYY) –  For those of you timing how long it would take for Nick Johnson to get dinged up, you may stop your stopwatches.  He has a sore back.  Normally, I would not even report something so innocuous as a sore back in spring training.  However, in the case of Nick “Fragile” Johnson, it is just an indication that it is the same old story with the breakable on-base machine.  Draft him hoping for 350 ABs, not 500.

Fernando Rodney  (RP – LAA) –  It looks as though Fernando Rodney will begin throwing soon.  One can assume that Brian Fuentes is now nervous.  Although Rodney had a 4.40 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP, he blew only one save in 2009.  Fuentes’ ratios were not much better in 2009, and he blew more saves.  If Rodney is significantly behind in his spring training, the result could be a longer leash for Fuentes.  However, I am guessing that leash runs out early this year.

Allen Craig  (1B/3B/OF – STL) -  This is a very interesting situation that I will track this spring.  By no means is Craig assured a roster spot this season.  It reminds me of back in the day when Tony LaRussa swore up and down that Albert Pujols was not going to break camp with the team.  Obviously he did and hasn’t looked back.  With the injury issues to Brendan Ryan, and presence of only stopgap options behind him, Craig could get a look if he performs well this spring.  Craig has played first base, third base, and the outfield.  With such versatility, it would not surprise me at all if he found a roster spot.  He was the organization’s player of the year in 2009, putting up stats that Brendan Ryan can only dream of.  He is also currently dealing with a minor quad injury, but is due to be back soon.  Track this closely, there is some sleeper potential here.

Joel Piniero  (SP – LAA) –  Not only do I not believe that Piniero is a fantasy asset, I think that he is very likely to waste a large amount of your bid money if you buy him in your 2010 fantasy baseball auction.  Sure, he threw a career high 214 innings, had a 3.77 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP.  However if you look a little closer, you will see that his secondary numbers paint a less optimistic picture of his “breakout” season.  His K/9 rate dropped to a career low 4.42.  While his BAA was not terrible at .265 (which is decent, not great) he still let up more hits than innings pitched.  If it were not for his career best BB/9 rate (which was WAY beyond his career norms, about half what it had been the previous two seasons), his WHIP could have done some damage to fantasy teams.  So sure, if he can hold that walk rate down, his ratios may not be terrible.  However, paying for a pitcher that is moving from the National to the American League after a career season is exactly the way that a fantasy GM can get burned and waste either bid money or a too high a pick in a fantasy baseball draft.  Oh yeah, he struggled his first start this spring.

Jason Heyward  (OF – ATL) –  Heyward is impressing early this spring with his plate discipline and defense.  Matt Diaz is still a threat to a full season worth of ABs, but the ceiling is just so much higher for the younger Heyward.  He is very young, and could struggle at times, however he is a real talent that you should track closely this spring.  If he breaks camp with a starting job, he could be a nice fantasy baseball sleeper for 2010.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia  (C – TEX) –  There is an open competition going on for the starting catcher role on the Rangers.  Salty and Taylor Teagarden are neck and neck.  While this competition would ideally result in finding which one should start this season, more likely it will result in finding which one will get the greater end of a platoon.  Salty did manager to have a good game Thursday, going 2-3 with a 3-run bomb.  However, that is not going to seal the deal.  An maintained offensive explosion from one of them could tip the balance.  If you have to chose between one or the other, go with Salty until you have Teagarden does something special.

Catcher

———–

Jorge Posada (NYY) –  There is no question that he is getting up there in age.  He also has recent injury history that makes him a risk.  However he will remain a starter on one of the most powerful offensive lineups in the league.  There are just better options that could break through and remain better for longer than Posada.  I would rather focus my attention on a longer-term option.  They will also likely be cheaper.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $12

Miguel Montero (ARI) –  I had Montero on my team last season, and he was a pleasure.  In 234 second-half ABs, Montero hit 11 HR with 40 RBI and a .316 batting average.  While many of your competition will focus on the big-hype Matt Wieters, if you can keep Montero for the right price, he could be a gem.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $14

Mike Napoli (LAA) -  This guy is a tease.  In the last two seasons, he has hit 40 home runs in only 609 ABs.  While this number is about a full season of ABs for the normal position player, as we know, catchers average closer to 500.  Either way, the power Napoli offers cannot be denied.  A “full” season for him of 500 ABs would probably result in 30+ HRs.  Napoli has also seemed to get his batting average up to acceptable levels (though his BABIP has risen every season of his career).  The problem with Napoli is that he just doesn’t play enough to get a full season.  Mike Scioscia likes to mix it up behind the plate, perhaps due to Napoli’s below-average defense.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $13

Russell Martin (LAD) –  What was once a no-brain protect has dropped dramatically in value.  Once, he was the best power/speed option at the position (and he still may be).  However, an across the board drop in all scoring categories for a second straight season should keep the bidding on Martin low.  He could easily have a resurgence in 2010, but don’t pay to keep him as though it is certain.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $9

Matt Wieters (BAL) - Don’t overpay for the hype.  He certainly can hit.  He has some power.  But he is still very young, and the power that would make him the keeper we are looking for may take some time to develop.  Keep in mind how long it took for Joe Mauer to find his pop.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $11

—————-

First Base

—————-

Paul Konerko (CWS) –  Don’t expect a rebound to his previous power and batting average levels.  For that matter, don’t pay for his name.  His line-drive rate has dropped significantly, his fly-ball rate was a career high in 2009, and his RBIs have been very disappointing over the last two seasons.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $10

Carlos Pena (TB) –  Prodigious power, a low batting average.  Pena has hit 46, 31,39 home runs respectively in the last three seasons.  Even more impressive is that he did so in under 500 ABs in each season.  That batting average, however, has gone from good, to bad, to awful, in those three seasons as well.  There is some hope of recovery since Pena’s BABIP in 2009 was .253.  That is over 50 points lower than in 2007 and 2008, and over 100 points lower than in 2006.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $19

Lance Berkman (HOU) –  I have owned Berkman in two different keeper leagues over the last several seasons.  Last season I had enough.  I traded him away in both leagues, and am not looking back.  It is not that I don’t believe he can be valuable, because he still can.  What is frustrating is not being able to predict what kind of season he will have.  His power in the first half of 2009 was great, hitting 18 HRs.  Yet for the second season, his second half saw his fantasy value tank.  He is just too inconsistent.  Not to mention, his supporting cast is not as strong as it used to be in his glory days.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $23

Billy Butler (KC) –  If you are going to keep a player based on upside rather than proven production, do so at one of the thiner positions where a true breakout will be much more valuable.  Billy Butler is a nice player, and could hit .300 and approach 30 home runs in 2010.  However, he has not proven to be worthy of reaching for, and certainly not paying top dollar for.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $13

——————

Second Base

——————

Dan Uggla (FLA) –  At second base, there are no-brainers and there are non-protects.  There are very few “bubble guys”.  Uggla will be seen in many leagues to be a no-brain protect.  He is, after all, a great source of power for a middle infielder.  The batting average is a strike against him, but so long as you aren’t paying the same price for him as for the elite at the position, you should keep him.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $23

Gordon Beckham (CWS) –  Now switching to second base for the 2010 season, Beckham sees added fantasy value.  With power potential and speed enough to steal bases, Beckham will be overpriced in auctions based on his upside.  If you have him in a keeper league and can keep him for a low price, don’t even think about letting him go.  You will not get him back for anywhere near the single digit price you probably have him for.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $19

Ben Zobrist (TB) –  I like this kid.  His numbers are on the upswing and he offers production in at least 4 of the 5 scoring categories.  However, like all players, it is safer to pay top dollar after establishing a track record for more than one season.  Bump his value up a couple of dollars if the 13 games he played at shortstop in 2009 qualifies him in your league.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $21

———————

Third Base

———————

Chone Figgins (SEA) –  The stolen bases are nice.  But going from the Angels to the Mariners hurts Figgy’s value.  It remains to be seen where he will bat in the order (my guess is second), and may struggle to reach 100 runs in 2010.  He offers little power (even less now at Safeco) and his batting average is all over the map from one season to another.  At best a three category contributor.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $21

Pablo Sandoval (SF) –  I nearly didn’t put him in this “bubble” category because it is common knowledge that this kid can rake.  I would keep him in a heartbeat, and expect good power with a very good batting average.  On the weak hitting Giants, he will probably hit in the heart of the order.  MAX PROTECT PRICE $25

Ian Stewart (COL) –  I am not a fan of keeping young players who’s power makes them attractive while their batting average is low.  It is that kind of player that goes for too much bid money, and could wind up losing playing time.  Stewart falls into that category.  He was not a high batting average guy in the minors, and there is no reason to believe that he will just become one in the big leagues.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $12

——————–

Shortstop

——————–

Jason Bartlett (TB) –  Perhaps the biggest (if not most unexpected) fantasy baseball breakout of 2009, Bartlett is sure to be one of the tougher decisions for fantasy owners for 2010.  The batting average was huge at .320 and the power just kept coming to the tune of 14 HRs.  You can expect the batting average to correct a bit based on his BABIP, and the power was just too out of nowhere to believe in entirely.  However, Bartlett can be seen as an option worth of protecting since he will likely be the most valuable shortstop on the board if dropped.  Also worthy of note is that he will lead off should Carl Crawford be traded as is widely speculated.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $21

Alexei Ramirez (CWS) –  Ramirez is exactly the reason that you have to contain your expectations when paying for unproven young talent.  Alexi failed to meet the marks he set in 2008 during his second season in 4 out of the 5 categories despite logging 60 more ABs in 2009.  The potential is still there for a nice 5-category season, but remember that he is not some 23 year old.  He will be 29 this year.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $18

Elvis Andrus (TEX) –  Moving Michael Young to third base to make room for Andrus, the Rangers must expect big things from him to hand the starting job over to a 20 year old.  He made good on his first year in the bigs, and provided good fantasy value to his owners.  His batting average may not develop past his current mediocre level for another couple of seasons, but Andrus should be a fairly reliable option.  Now that Julio Borbon has been anointed the starter in center, thoughts of Andrus leading off should be over.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $14

——————–

Outfield

——————–

Torii Hunter (LAA) –  He is a lock for good, but not great production in all five categories.  That makes him dependable.  It also makes his ceiling fairly limited.  While potential breakouts such as Adam Jones and Andrew McCutchen will be bid up by GMs looking for the next big thing, Hunter will just continue giving good low-profile value.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $20

Chris Coghlan (FLA) –  Man, I hope you guys don’t overpay for Coghlan.  His numbers show that the batting average will remain high, but there will probably be little else to woo fantasy owners.  Not much power, not much speed (though the SB number could tick up slightly), and the loss of infield qualification dictates that you not go overboard for the 2009 N.L. ROY.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $11

Nyjer Morgan (WAS) –  The speedster successfully escaped Pittsburgh and ran wild once arriving in Washington.  Again, we are not talking about a youngster, as it took a good while for Morgan to break into the bigs and hold a spot there.  He is fast and can hit for average, however, and can help lock in a nice finish for your team in the stolen base category.  If your list of protects is studly, or slanted greatly towards power, pay an extra dollar or two for his services.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $17

Nate McLouth (ATL) –  He took a step back from his 2008 campaign, but 2009 still saw McLouth approach the 20-20 mark.  His ground ball rate has gone up almost 10% in the last two seasons, but his OBP remained constant.  While he may not take the step forward we were hoping for in 2009, he is still a fine source of power and speed.  Just think 2nd or 3rd outfielder, not 1st or 2nd.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $16

Raul Ibanez (PHI) –  Oh, what a disappointment the second half of 2009 was.  After crushing the ball and hitting 22 HRs with a .309 BA in the first half, the .238 batting average with 12 HRs in the second was a letdown.  Ibanez is old, and he never showed the type of power that he did in the first half of 2009.  Do not count on it continuing.  If you have him dirt cheap keep him, but there are better options out there with higher upside.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $11

————————

Starting Pitchers

————————

Johan Santana (NYM) –  I put him here in case there was some doubt in your mind that he should be protected.  He should be, and as a top pitcher.  Monitor his health up until the last moment you have to turn in your protects.  But if you hear no bad news, assume all is well and pay what you have to.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $30

Cole Hamels (PHI) –  I am a believer that Hamels just had an off season.  He works off his fastball with one of the best change-ups in the game.  His K/9 rate was almost unchanged from his very good 2008, as was his BB/9 rate.  The main difference in his numbers was his BABIP, which was 36 points higher than 2007 and 55 points higher than in 2008.  If you have him at top tier price, you can probably let him go and get him back cheaper in the auction.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $26

Javier Vazquez (NYY) –  With the season Vazquez had in 2009, many GMs will just automatically keep Vazquez.  Personally, I would be looking to trade him to someone else.  The change back to the American League and a hitter’s ballpark is going to crush his ratios, and make anyone who pays top dollar for him very sorry.  The good news is that since his 2009 was so much better than expected, you probably have him at a fairly cheap price.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $16

Yovani Gallardo (MIL) –  The touted youngster put up a nice season in 2009, which is sure to make fantasy GMs drool in anticipation of drafting him.  However, he suffers from a common affliction among young pitchers, which is a tendency to walk batters.  He is worth keeping at a moderate price, but know if you let him go, it will cost you to get him back.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $18

Tommy Hanson (ATL) –  The youngster posted a great stat-line in his first taste of the big leagues.  A 2.89 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP is nothing to sneeze at.  But neither is the fact that he has never thrown more innings during a season than he did in 2009 (194 IN between AAA and MLB).  To me, that is not enough of a sample size to pay for the hype that surrounds such a player.  Young pitchers are the most unpredictable commodity in fantasy baseball, and you should realize that before keeping such an unproven player.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $13

Ubaldo Jimenez (COL) –  Jimenez took a nice step forward in 2009, but that still leaves a ways to go.  I mean, he went from a 1.44 WHIP to a 1.23 WHIP.  Better?  Yes.  Worthy of paying as an elite pitcher?  No.  The potential is there for Jimenez to improve further, but there are options that have better control out there.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $16

——————-

Closers

——————-

Before we get into specific cases of closers, note that this is the fantasy baseball position that changes most often, and quickest.  Be sure to keep up with it by using our “Closer Report“.

Francisco Cordero (CIN) –  I am not a huge fan of closers that put up a high WHIP, and Cordero is one of these.  It is hard to argue with the results, since he has posted at least 22 saves in every season since 2004.  Yet in that same time span his WHIP has only been under 1.29 once.  That says to me that it will not take much decline for him to lose his job.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $18

Ryan Franklin (STL) –  Franklin is not some fireballing young kid that took the team by storm.  Instead, he was the lesser of the evils available in the Cardinal bullpen in 2009.  Sure, he came through with one of his better seasons, but with a track record of WHIP numbers as likely to be over 1.4 as under 1.2, Franklin had better be at the right price if you intend to protect him.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $13

Rafael Soriano (TB) –  The new closer for the Rays yanked the job away from Mike Gonzalez in Atlanta last season.  His second half was significantly worse than his first, yet he has the makeup of a closer and his secondary numbers point to success.  Injury is a risk with his history, and he also has some competition in the deep Ray’s pen if he should stumble.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $19

Starting Pitchers

————————-

Top Tier:  Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia, Johan Santana, Dan Haren, Zack Greinke, Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez

Tim Lincecum is just awesome.  He shows no signs of slowing down.  Roy Halladay had a strong case to win the A.L. Cy Young Award in 2009.  Other names come and go, Roy Halladay is still in the top tier.  CC Sabathia could win 15 games in his sleep on the mighty Yankees.  His ratios were still very good despite the home run bonanza at Yankee Stadium.  Johan Santana has been too good for too long to doubt.  I have no problems believing that he will have a very strong 2010.  Zach Greinke actually did win the A.L. Cy Young Award, and was excellent in 2009.  With his anxiety issues behind him, and 4 “plus” pitches, he could be atop this list for a long time.

Dan Haren’s numbers in 2009 were excellent even with a second half that was very pedestrian.  If he could just put it together for a full season, he could be the best pitcher in the game.  Justin Verlander finally had that complete breakout season.  Once the lid is off of the strikeout jar, I expect them to keep coming.  He got his ratios under control from a down 2008, putting up his third year out of four with an ERA under 4.0.  Felix Hernandez took a nice step forward in 2009.  He got his BB rate back down, and his HR rate dropped for the third straight season.  His BABIP in 2009 was a little low, so his ratios may uptick slightly.

Second Tier:  Adam Wainwright, Jon Lester, Cliff Lee, Josh Beckett, Chris Carpenter, Cole Hamels, Javier Vazquez, Matt Cain, John Lackey, Brandon Webb, Jake Peavy, Clayton Kershaw, Yovani Gallardo, Ubaldo Jimenez, Ted Lilly, Josh Johnson, Jair Jurrjens

These guys are still very good options, and many of them are capable of putting up first tier numbers.  Some had off years, some are one category short of being great, and some have yet to provide enough track record to justify paying top tier prices.  To all of you Adam Wainwright owners that don’t like seeing his name this low:  Chill.  If he does in 2010 what he did in 2009, he will be in the top tier.  Personally, I am not willing to pay what is going to be top dollar for a guy with such a short track record of first tier type success.  All of Jon Lester’s numbers are headed in the right direction for a breakout season.  With a rising K rate, a falling BB rate, and BAA that has dropped two straight years, this could be the last chance to get him without paying very top dollar (if it isn’t too late already).  Cliff Lee got shipped off to Seattle.  The ballpark there will help him, but the supporting cast and the change back to the American League will not.  Josh Beckett always seems to be in the second tier.  His stats tick up, and his stats tick down.  However, he just does not seem to be able to stay at the top of the fantasy baseball pitching rankings.

Chris Carpenter managed to stay healthy in 2009, and he was just as good as we remembered.  I kept waiting for the wheels to come off that bus, and it just kept rolling.  There is definitely still a little risk of injury with him, but he is good enough when healthy to lead your rotation.  Cole Hamels not only had an off-year, but his post-season comments are sure to cost him positions in 2010 snake drafts.  Grab him.  He is so good, and this is a buy low opportunity of which smart GMs will take advantage.  His BABIP was 55 points higher in 2009 than in 2008, and his BB/9 rate was unchanged.  I am skeptical that Javier Vazquez will have as much success in 2010 as he did in 2009.  The change back to the American League along with the move from a pitchers park to one that favors hitters could spell higher ratios.  Beware.  Matt Cain just keeps plugging along and getting better with age.  There are a couple of signs that his ratios will correct towards his career averages.  Firstly, his BABIP was .268 in 2009, that was well under his usual.  Also, he let up his highest HR rate of his career in 2009.  Although wins may continue to be a problem on the lowly Giants, he remains a quality investment.    John Lackey continues to be a good option, however two straight seasons pitching under 200 innings are a warning sign not to chase him too far.

The next two pitchers have been staples in the top tier in recent years.  Brandon Webb has perhaps the best sinker in the game.  He had shoulder problems that cost him all of 2009, and is a high risk/reward play in 2010.  Watch him in the spring and adjust your price on his health.  Jake Peavy is not only coming back from injury, but now moves to the American League and a hitter’s park.  That did not seem to slow him down at all at the end of 2009.  Unlike Javier Vazquez (who has a mixed track record of success and failure), Peavy has given us no reason to believe that the change in scenery will result in any difference in his stats except more wins.  Ted Lilly had a great season interrupted by injury in 2009, but should remain a low-profile source of wins and good ratios.

The next five starters are youngsters with great promise.  Clayton Kershaw made Dodger fans drool at what he did in a short 2009.  As a fantasy GM, contain that drool until you see his price.  His K/9 rate stood at 9.74, his BAA was .198, and he only gave up 119 hits in 171.0 IN.  If he can just get control of that high walk rate, this kid could be something to watch.  The fact that many youngsters never really overcome that problem is why you need to contain that drool.  Like Kershaw, Yovani Gallardo is some control away from being included in the next generation of elite pitchers.  With a K/9 rate in 2009 that was even better than Kershaw, he too has dominant stuff, holding batters to a .223 average in 2009.

Ubaldo Jimenez took another big step forward last year, improving on both his K/9 and BB/9 rates.  Despite pitching in Colorado, his ability to get ground-ball outs have kept home runs from being an issue.  Of the group, Josh Johnson has the best control. His allowed the fewest walks of the group in 2009, and his K rate was only a bit lower than Kershaw and Gallardo.  In that ballpark, he could even improve on these numbers.  Jair Jurrjens is only 24 years old this season.  He built a second excellent campaign on top of a great rookie season.  Across the board, his numbers improved.  The potential is there to increase the strikeouts as he gets stronger.

Third Tier:  James Shields, A.J. Burnett, Jered Weaver, Matt Garza, Scott Baker, Chad Billingsley, Scott Kazmir, Tommy Hanson, Roy Oswalt, Carlos Zambrano, Ricky Nolasco, J.A. Happ, Francisco Liriano, Max Scherzer, Ryan Dempster, John Danks, Rich Harden, Andy Pettitte, Derek Lowe, Neftali Feliz, Clay Buchholz, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Brett Anderson,

James Shields was quite the disappointment in 2009.  He let up a career high in home runs, let up 20 more hits than innings pitched, and his walk rate was the worst since his first season in the show.  Perhaps he should go back to working mostly fastball/chageup and less of the curveball.  He has good odds for a rebound but don’t overlook his struggles.  A.J. Burnett’s ratios (as expected) were not excellent, but thats what happens when you let up 21 home runs and walk 97 batters. He did pitch over 200 innings in back to back seasons for the first time.  He also came through with the strikeouts, but only 13 wins was disappointing.  This is what Burnett is, and there is no reason to expect drastic improvement (except for wins, since the Yankees are a scoring machine).

Scott Baker showed flashes of brilliance in 2009.  Since he has excellent control (as shown by just issuing 48 walks in over 200 innings during 2009), his WHIP is above average.  After the All-Star Break he went 8-2 with a 3.28 ERA.  If you are looking for a mild sleeper that could outperform his price greatly, this is where you should look.  Chad Billingsley was cruising right along through the first half of 2009 putting up numbers right in line with the stats that made GMs pay large amounts in auctions.  The second half of the season, those stats took a sharp turn downward.  His owners were looking for fewer walks, but Billingsley’s BB/9 rate remained unchanged.  While his ERA went up close to a run, his BAA actually went down 10 points.  Take the discount and run.

Whichever GM in your league goes for the “next big thing” every season will go after Tommy Hanson this year.  I personally would rather go for one of the above options that are more proven.  Hanson may be good, but 124 innings is not enough of a sample size for me to pay what my competition will.  It seems everywhere I look, Ricky Nolasco is ranked absurdly high.  He definitely has huge upside, and in 2009 his K/9 rate went up significantly.  It is the 23 home runs that worry me.  His control is above average for a pitcher his age, so if he can keep the ball in the yard, he can quickly improve on that 5.06 ERA he posted in 2009.  If that ERA scares away other owners and the price remains reasonable, grab him.  If it enters 2nd tier prices, let him go.  Supposedly, Francisco Liriano is pitching very well with good velocity in winter ball.  With the amount of time that has gone by since he has been good, and the numbers he has put up since, Liriano will be cheaper than ever.  If he is healthy this spring, he will be an excellent gamble.

J.A. Happ made a strong case for National League Rookie of the Year.  I am not as impressed as a fantasy GM.  He is a fly-ball pitcher in a hitter’s ballpark.  His K/9 rate was only 6.45 in 2009, and his LOB% was very high.  While Happ will be a name everyone knows in your league, he is not one that will be worth the gamble.  As you have read, I usually downgrade a pitcher for moving from the National League to the American League.  The one case this season where that is not true is in the case of Max Scherzer.  The ballpark in Detroit is more friendly to pitchers, and the Tigers will win more games than the Diamondbacks.  Scherzer has good stuff, a nice K rate, and could take a nice step forward on a team that is actually competitive.  After a strong 2008, most of Ryan Dempster’s numbers ticked down towards his career averages in 2009.  It looks like his new improved control is for real, but he will never be a great pitcher for WHIP purposes.  It is the same old story for Rich Harden.  If he is healthy, he could be one of the top pitchers in the game.  Now he also has to pitch half his games in a hitter’s ballpark.

Clay Buchholz has four good pitches and could emerge this season as a good fantasy asset.  It is true that Boston is a tough place to break into the big leagues and find immediate success, but if he does it will be huge for fantasy purposes.  He reminds me a bit of Zack Greinke.  Neftali Feliz has my Ranger-fan-friend very excited.  He has the K-rate, but needs some more control.  There is upside here, fantasy baseball sleeper alert!!  It now appears that Daisuke Matsuzaka was injured for pretty much all of 2009.  It sounds a little bit like an excuse (since this news just was revealed recently), but a rebound is possible.  I would not pay as though it were certain, though.  Brett Anderson appears to have both the K-rate and the control to be a very good fantasy asset.  Could be a late sleeper, but a short track record makes him a less than certain bet.

Fourth Tier:  Scott Feldman, Joe Blanton, Randy Wolf, Mark Buehrle, Tim Hudson, Jonathan Sanchez, Aaron Harang, Kevin Millwood, Gavin Floyd, Dave Bush, Joe Saunders, Kevin Slowey, Erik Bedard, Hiroki Kuroda, Wandy Rodriguez, Rick Porcello, Edwin Jackson, Joba Chamberlain, Ben Sheets, Stephen Strasburg, Randy Wells, Joel Pineiro, Johnny Cueto, Brad Penny, Barry Zito, Ervin Santana, Aroldis Chapman, John Maine

Scott Feldman was surprisingly effective in 2009.  His 17 wins could draw some attention, but his ratios and mediocre strikeout rate could keep him of the radar.  If you throw out the 6 innings he pitched as a reliever (and gave up 9 runs) his numbers for the season get even more impressive.  He also faded down the stretch, posting his worst ERA in September.  I am just not a Joe Blanton fan.  He has not let up fewer hits than innings pitched since 2005, and he let up a career high HR/9 rate in 2009.  His LOB% was also a career high, indicating that more of his base runners will score in 2010.  Randy Wolf had an amazing season in 2009.  Treat it like what it is, a very nice, outlier of a season that fantasy GMs will overpay for.  Mark Buehrle threw a perfect game in 2009, and that will only add to how overrated he is in a fantasy sense.  He has not let up fewer hits than innings pitched since 2002.  I like that Ben Sheets has wound up in Oakland.  The ballpark is excellent for pitchers, and the low-pressure and expectations for the A’s will work in his favor.  He swears he is healthy, but all fantasy baseball GMs should know that it is still a risk.

Jonathan Sanchez has the Ks, but his control is still a long way from being a fantasy asset (2009- 163.3 IN, 88 BB).  Once he gets that control, look out.  Dave Bush’s season would not have been so bad if not for a come-backer that tore his bicep.  He never got back on track after that.  A late flier at best.  Ben Sheets is still a free agent at the time of this posting.  Even if he signs with a good team, his injury history make him a gamble.  Rick Porcello has some serious upside.  He is only 22 years old and is already finding success to the tune of 14 wins.  A little more control and a little more strength that comes with age, and he could be a gem.  If you haven’t been paying attention, you may have missed Hiroki Kuroda’s nice 2009 season.  He has yet to throw 200 innings in a season, but his numbers show that he has the ability to be effective when healthy.

Stephen Strasburg is supposedly a phenom, but it remains to be seen how much he will pitch in 2010.  He will most likely be overpriced.  Joba Chamberlain’s numbers are all moving in the wrong direction.  A Yankee pitcher over-hyped?  Wow.  Johnny Cueto did not really make much progress in 2009.  In fact his K/9 rate got worse.  Dusty Baker doesn’t care though, because he has a new young arm to abuse. Aroldis Chapman made a bad decision to sign with the Reds.  He will get his chance to shine this season, and if he is good Dusty will wear that arm out.  Recent reports have John Maine healthy again.  He was seen as a high upside pitcher after a good 2007, and will be a late sleeper for 2010.

Fifth Tier: Clayton Richard, Justin Masterson, Chris Volstad, David Price, Nick Blackburn, Luke Hochevar, Brian Matusz, Marc Rzepczynski, Jorge de la Rosa, Gil Meche, Jeff Niemann, Bronson Arroyo, Chris Young, Kevin Correia, Ricky Romero, Jason Hammel, Kenshin Kawakami, Kyle Lohse, Mike Pelfrey, Paul Maholm, Matt Latos, Shaun Marcum, Zach Duke, Bud Norris, Felipe Paulino, Garrett Mock, Trevor Cahill, Wade Davis, Brandon Marrow, Brett Cecil, David Huff, Gio Gonzalez, John Lannan, Jeremy Guthrie, Jon Garland, Koji Uehara, Manny Parra, Robinson Tejada, Ross Ohlendorf, Ryan Rowland-Smith, Carl Pavano, Scott Richmond, Sean West

Once you get this low, the upside starts getting thin.  After all, we are talking about a lot of 4th and 5th starters here (many on bad teams).  It may be time to think about grabbing a reliever that can help you in the ratios instead of taking on the risk a bad starter represents.  Brian Matusz has showed some upside in 8 starts in 2009, but is so young he should only be taken as a late flier.  Marc Rzepczynski only had a 61 inning sample size in the show last year, but his minor league track record make him a nice sleeper.  If he looks like he has earned a roster spot in the late spring, don’t hesitate to push him up your draft board a little.  Jeff Niemann also looked good in his rookie season.  His K rate leaves something to be desired, but he has upside.  Kenshin Kawakami may or may not have a rotation spot in 2010.  If he does he showed enough to make him worth drafting late.