Hamels was expensive in 2009 drafts. But what about 2010?

At 736 innings pitched, Cole Hamels is a veteran.  This means that he, barring injury, can be reasonably predictable.  Over the course of his career, Hamels has shown he can be expected to hover near a K/BB ratio of 4:1.  His ERA is middle of the pack, and his WHIP (while consistently above average), can be gotten for far fewer dollars than you’d have to pay to get Hamels.  He has never won more than 15 games.  There are several positive aspects to Cole; he’s 26 years old and he plays for a winner.  He has managed to succeed in the post season, and in a notorious hitters haven.  We’ve heard the hype, seen the flashes of brilliance.  The question going forward– is he a top 10 pitcher worth spending big draft money on, or is he a guy you pass on to land a more reasonably priced player that will net you the same gains?

Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum, Johan Santana, Dan Haren, CC Sabathia, Justin Verlander, Jake Peavy, Josh Beckett, Zack Greinke, Josh Johnson, Roy Oswalt, Javier Vazquez, Cliff Lee — these are all guys I would rather spend my pitching money on if I was going to pay for a top 10 arm.  Hamels is on the cusp of this list for sure, but when I can slot more money for a power bat with the consistency of a Ryan Howard, why would I pay top 10 dollars for a pitcher who doesn’t crack the top 10?

Another question to consider when thinking about Hamels is roster space and relative value.  To be competitive, every team really needs that one anchor, ace of their staff.  In a league with 12-15 teams, he qualifies as that type of pitcher.  Pitching is that thin– especially with the decline of guys like Brandon Webb- but with the emergence of pitchers like Adam Wainwright and Yovani Gallardo (and a guy named Felix too), Hamels has his work cut out for him to earn his money and status from fantasy owners.

It’s really a tough call on a player like Hamels.  His age works in his favor in terms of a resurgence to his World Series MVP persona.  His K/BB rate indicates that despite his poor year, he still managed to keep guys off the bases and got the K when he needed it.  Then, there is the fact that he gave up more hits than innings pitched for the first time in his career.  His 162 game average of 199 hits to 216 innings pitched says that 2009 might have been a fluke year for the maybe ace.  The only real difference between his stellar campaign and his awful one is the number of hits allowed that translated into runs.  How many of those hits fell into play on a chance?

Then there is the final weight– can I get a pitcher who will outperform  Cole Hamels on the cheap?  Scott Baker could have been had for 5 bucks in an auction and would have gone off the board at somewhere in the 10th round in drafts.  He won 5 more games, had a slightly better ERA even after having as disastrous if not worse start to the year as Hamels.  He only had 6 less K’s than Hamels and despite the 3:1 K./BB ratio, he made up for that shortcoming in wins.

Do you skip the maybe player and go for the cheaper, similar pitcher without the top ten reputation?  Or, do you secure what you believe an be an anchor and build around that belief?  There are arguments that can be made for both sides.  With a now veteran Hamels, you can reasonably say that he is on the cusp of being a tier 1 pitcher.  With guys like Baker and even guys like Chad Billingsley, you can’t really be sure that you will get that bang for your buck.

Justin Verlander, in his 2008 campaign lost a league-leading, humiliating 17 games.  He had just come off of winning 35 games in the previous 2 seasons and seeing a K rate go up and up.  He was becoming a true horse.  Then came the 4.84 ERA, the 1.4+ WHIP and so forth.  What happened in 2009?  He reverted back to his winning ways.  Not only that, he surpassed his winning ways and is a CY Young candidate again.

Cole Hamels can experience the same exact revitalization.  He is a young veteran with a tremendous talent that can still elevate his game.  OR, Cole Hamels can fade into misery and prove that those arm problems of his past have taken their toll.  The choice is yours.