Minor League Career

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Gonzalez has shown decent power at every stop along his minor league career, but it is only recently that he has shown the ability to take the free pass.  Also, while Gonzalez does have speed, his success rate in the minors leaves something to be desired.  In his first two major stints in the minors (2006- DBacks A+, 2007 DBacks AA) his BB/K rate was miserable at .29 and .31, respectively.  In each season, the sample size of at-bats was over 400.  To be fair, his batting average during these two seasons was not an issue, as he hit .300 and then .286.  Near the end of the 2007 season, Gonzalez was traded to the Athletics, and spend a short amount of time (10 games) playing for their AAA team.  It was at this point that something changed in his game.

Some good coach in their organization must have preached the value of taking a walk, because in that ten game stretch his BB/K rate was 1.0.  The next season playing for that same team, he logged 173 ABs, and while his walk rate was not as high as 1.0, he did manage to improve it from his former .30ish level to .46.  Clearly, this excited the A’s and they gave him a nice long cuppa coffee in 2008.  Overwhelmed in his first big league opportunity, his BB/K rate hit a new low over his 302 ABs (.16).  Another trade later, and Gonzalez found himself in Colorado’s AAA affiliate.  He continued his improvement to post a .69 BB/K rate in 223 ABs, and that was all the Rockies needed to see.  He was promoted to the show, and this time found his stroke after just a short period.

2009

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It is easy to just look at the scoring categories and see that Gonzalez showed both power and speed with a good batting average.  Based on that alone, plenty of fantasy baseball GMs will pay huge dollars for the potential of further progress.  However, that is actually not where the story is.  If we continue looking at the secondary stats, we find that Gonzalez could well be on his way to being WORTH all those dollars that are going to be spent on him.

In that first month of 2009 especially, things looked bleak.  He was called up in June, and in that month he recorded a .23 BB/K.  In other words, he once again reverted to his old bad habits when faced with better pitching.  Someone must have sat him down and had a talk, because in July that rate rose back up to .67.  There is another number that I find encouraging for Gonzalez.  His percentage of balls swung at outside the strike-zone went down 2% from his 2008 major league campaign to that in 2009.  His contact rate went up 3%, and top that off with a 6% increase in his line-drive rate.  These are all signs that real progress being made by a young talent that is coming into his own.  The results are clear.  In the second half of the season, Gonzalez posted a .320 batting average with an OPS of .992.

Warning Signs

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The warnings signs here are primarily that when struggling Gonzalez tends to revert back to his free-swinging ways.  If you do chose to invest in this talent, keep a close watch on his BB/K rate.  If it begins to sink, it is time to start shopping him.  I have also read (and obviously have no personal knowledge about) that his work ethic and attitude have drawn criticism.  Perhaps the fact that listening to his coaches with regard to being selective at the plate has proven to work, will improve that.  Personally, I feel that since he is going to start regardless of attitude, that it is irrelevant.  I mean, Gary Sheffield and Barry Bonds were notorious dicks, and they were fantasy studs for years.

Fantasy Implications

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The kid is only 25 this season, and could easily take the next step in 2010.  It appears as though the plate discipline that he was lacking is coming around, and that could lead to the 5-tool player that all fantasy GMs want.  With a full-time job assured in 2010, he will get a full season to prove himself.  I expect him to take another step forward.  The Rockies like to run, so the speed should be an asset, and the power he showed in the second half of the season is real.  Since his numbers were good, but not eye-popping, it is possible that he could go in snake drafts after Adam Jones, but given the choice between the two, Gonzalez would be my choice.  I would place his top fantasy baseball auction value at $19, and expect a season of .278, 20 HR, 72 RBI, 82 R, 19 SB, 520 ABs.

Expectations are high for Troy Tulowitzki

Troy Tulowitzki has gone from “Superstar shortstop-to be,” to “King of the slow start,” to “Who the heck cares about the slow start?” in two quick years. One season removed from his turbulent 2008 campaign, Tulo broke out. He played in over 150 games, which may have been the most important news considering the serious injury he suffered in 2008, but it goes beyond that. Tulo’s power really showed up with a career-high 32 home runs, an eight home run jump over his previous best of 24 long balls in 2007. Even better was the spike in speed. Troy’s 20 stolen bases nearly tripled his previous-best 7 swipes in 2007. Is maintaining that jump a realistic request from fantasy owners? Will 2010’s overall numbers be worth the price? These are the questions potential Tulowitzki investors need to ask.

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The “Slow Start” Syndrome

What better place to start than where Tulowitzki owners have found themselves in April and May for the last two seasons; wondering if they’d made a mistake. There’s no doubt that Tulo is getting a rep for starting slow and finishing strong, which is probably easier to deal with than the reverse problem of starting strong and stumbling to the finish, an affliction know as Dan Haren-itis. But what, if any, are the pitfalls of such a player?

Let’s start by saying that this label would go away with a solid, wire-to-wire campaign. Remember, Tulowitzki was just 24 years old this season, so there’s plenty of time to make this reputation evaporate. However, a responsible fantasy owner needs to calculate the “slump’s” negative value, until on-the-field performance shows it’s no longer necessary. Since Tulo plays virtually every day, the only area this slump truly affects is his trade value.

Guys like Dan Haren and Mike Lowell who have had the reputation for wearing down are tough to trade because people are concerned with what they’ll be locked into after their fantasy league’s trade deadline. On the other hand, guys like Tulowitzki present a different issue. Owners know they’re supposed to break out in the second half, but it’s tough to pull the trigger in those early months when the player in question is below the Mendoza Line. The point here is this. To get the full value of what you’ll have to pay for Tulowitzki this season, a fantasy owner should be committed to riding it for the entire season. Of course, if an opportunity arises, there’s always room to readjust, but this premise is something owners need to understand about Troy’s value right now.

Here’s the bright side. He might do what Robinson Cano did this season. Cano has been a disappointment for fantasy owners, always teasing them with .320 batting average ability, but slow starts have made more than a few owners grey. Then poof; 2009. Cano seized on the potential that was there and rocked it. Tulowitzki had 32 home runs, with over 90 runs and RBIs apiece in the 2009 season that included one of these slow starts. Just imagine what he would do if he hit the ground running in 2010.

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Defense

This may seem like a sudden topic shift, but once in a while a player’s defense is either so good or so bad, that they’re offensive output is affected. If a player has a bad habit of booting balls, he’ll eventually lose those precious at-bats. Likewise, a player who makes himself indispensable in the field, especially at one of the defensive-oriented positions of C, 2B, SS or CF is sure to be in lineup daily. Even with the slow start, Tulowitzki’s at-bats were never in doubt because Troy’s defense is superb, highlighted by a rocket-firing arm.

There is a certain value afforded the owner of a player who will likely reach 600 at-bats. That owner can accept the projected offensive stats with more assurance, since a key component to calculating those numbers(at bats) is not only not a variable, but is pinned at maximum output. Dustin Pedroia is another solid defensive middle infielder who delivers very reliable stats for his owners, in large part because of his 600-or-so bites at the apple each season.

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2010 Projections:

Tulowitzki is coming off that breakout season we all want our players to have, but what now? Once is a blip; two is a trend. If he can come close to repeating his 2009 season next year, then he has the opportunity to move up in value at the relatively thin shortstop position. Many players get here, but only some follow through.

The signs point to a near-repeat of last season’s numbers. For one, the slow start issue can be seen as an area for improvement; a place where solid play could shift the numbers upward.

2009 was not a statistical best in runs or RBIs, but came up just 10 runs and RBIs combined short of 2007’s totals, a year in which Tulowitzki had more than 60 extra at-bats to work with. This makes it clear to me. With the at-bats in hand, and Tulowitzki coming into his own, 2010 will be a very fun year for owners of this Rockies shortstop; maybe more fun at the end than the beginning, but fun nonetheless.

So is it worth paying the price this year? Accept that you he needs to be part your entire 2010 plan; not trade bait. Accept that he’s like a locomotive that takes a while to get going and don’t get frustrated when he’s driving you nuts. Remember. You invested for the entire season package. If you can accept these base premises about your 2010 investment in Troy Tulowitzki, then you should go get him.

And here’s the bonus for keeper league owners. If he does have that wire-to-wire run, the resultant stats will be off the wall and the label of “slow starter” will be replaced by that of a cornerstone player.

Expect the slump. Root for the quick start. And in the meantime, punch these stats into your model:

2010 Projections: 605 at-bats/.289 ba/31 HR/105 runs/101 rbis/16 sb