The average will be there, but what else?

The 2009 National League Rookie of the Year did not really put up the fantasy production we have come to expect from the winner of that distinguished award.  Chris Coghlan certainly had a fine season.  However, just because he won Rookie of the Year, doesn’t justify paying overpaying for him in your fantasy baseball auction.  Many GMs shelled out big bucks to protect or draft several of the recent ROY winners.  Recent winners of the N.L. ROY include: Ryan Braun, Hanley Ramirez, Ryan Howard, Jason Bay, and Albert Pujols.  Those names put up some incredible numbers in their rookie season, which made fantasy baseball GMs pay top dollar to either draft or protect those players.  Those who did were, for the most part, very happy with the results of their decision.

Yet there were some other names sprinkled in these last several years that did not pan out quite so well for owners that drafted them.  Those who decided to pay for Geovany Soto, Dontrelle Willis, Jason Jennings, and Scott Williamson (other recent N.L. ROY winners) were not quite so happy with the results.  Chris Coghlan could easily turn out to be a name on this second list.  So we ask that age old questions:  What are realistic fantasy baseball projections for Chris Coghlan in 2010?  and, How much should you pay for him in your 2010 fantasy baseball auction?

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Minor League Career

On the positive side, there are not a whole lot of minor league statistics for us to examine for Coghlan.  He played in at least part of 3 minor league seasons from 2006-2008, for a total of 277 games and just over 1000 ABs.  While this may make it harder to predict what he will do in the major leagues, it is a sign that his managers and coaches thought he was progressing nicely, and had the talent to perform in the show.  During his minor league stint, Coghlan accrued a BA of .293, an OBP of .384, and walked more than he struck out (BB-142, SO-137).  These are all great signs for Coghlan’s ability to hit.  Plate discipline is one of the major stumbling blocks that cause many a baseball prospect to falter and fail to achieve greatness.  Fortunately for those who will pay the price for Coghaln, he appears to be able to dodge this particular bullet.

Batting average, however, is only part of the equation you must calculate when looking at what Coghlan may do in the 2010 season.  While Coghlan can hit the occasional home run, he did not prove to be a power hitter in the minors.  He managed to hit only 19 home runs in the aforementioned 3 seasons.  So while the 24 year-old may develop more power as he ages, there is no indication that he will suddenly develop the power that fantasy GMs are looking for.  He did steal a good amount of bases while playing in the minors.  At his longest minor league stop (483 ABs for AA-Carolina) he stole 34 bases.  Granted, he was also caught 10 times, but it does show that he has the speed to make an impact on one’s fantasy roster if he were given the green light on the base-paths.

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2009

Chris Coghlan had a good 2009 season.  Well, let’s be a little more specific.  He had a awesome second half to the 2009 season.  In the first half, Coghlan hit a meager .245 over 200 ABs.  No big deal though, since it was his first appearance in the show, and struggles can be expected for a young player.  The second half of the season was completely different.  Coghlan hit .372 in his 304 ABs after the All-Star Break with an OBP of .423.  Sick numbers, right?  For the season he hit over .300 against both left-handed and right-handed pitching.  He hit over .290 both at home and away.  Coghlan’s power numbers were right in line with his minor league stats, hitting a home run every 56 ABs.  Though he did hit 7 home runs after the All-Star Break versus 2 before.  While Coghlan showed speed in the minors, as stated above his successful stolen base rate was somewhat lacking.  This fact was even more apparent in the big leagues, as he was caught stealing 5 times in his 13 attempts.

Another departure from his minor league numbers was his 2009 BB/K rate (53BB/77K).  From walking more than striking out in the minors, to walking 24 times less than striking out is a significant decline.  The decline is troubling, yet his contact rate on balls he swung at was great (84.2%), and his contact rate on balls swung at in the strike zone was nuts (91.7%).  This leads me to believe that while he may not walk at as great a rate as he did in the minors, striking out will not be a big problem for Coghlan.  Thanks again to Fangraphs.com for their excellent stats.

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Warning Signs

The warning signs for Coghlan are not directly apparent.  Statistically, Coghlan has proven to be a competent major league hitter.  The only batting average related statistic that perhaps waves a small red flag is that his BABIP was 33 points higher on the big club in 2009 than it was in his 2008 minor league season (2009- .366, 2008- .333).  Despite this, it is a good bet that he will continue to hit for a good batting average. If he continues to hit at the top of the order, then he will continue to score runs.  That is, however, only two of the five major fantasy baseball scoring categories.  His power may spike for a season or two here or there, but he does not project to develop regular 20 HR power, especially while playing half his games at Land Shark Stadium.  His 47% ground ball rate, and low HR/FB rate support that premise.  While he was able to steal a good total of bases in the minors, he managed to steal only 8 bases in 13 attempts during 2009.  This is a miserable success rate, let alone for a lead-off hitter.  In fact, his rate was only 50% over the second half of 2009 (4SB, 4CS).  If this was a technique issue, his success rate should have climbed as he was coached on how to steal at the major league level.  So while he has the on-base skills to maintain his standing as a top of the order hitter, there is only so much that he can do with those opportunities.

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Fantasy Implications

Coghlan has gotten a ton of press since the All-Star Break of 2009.  To be honest, his profile is higher than it should be.  He is a nice fantasy commodity if you are looking for a 4th outfielder.  He will help you negate another active player’s terrible batting average, and score more runs than the average player.  However, if you are counting on him to take another big step forward in the power and speed categories, you are asking to be disappointed.  There is nothing that shows that he is going to grow significantly in those areas.  Coghlan won the award, which means everyone will know his name.  With a second half batting average so high, people will know his stats.  The point is that you are not going to get him cheap unless you can protect him for the small price you drafted him for in 2009.  So we have a steady hitter that will score runs, not hit for much power, not steal for a few bases, that won a huge award causing everyone in your league to know who he is.

This is not a fantasy baseball sleeper.  This is not a breakout candidate.  This is a very nice piece that you can use on your team for the right price.  Bump his value up a bit if you can keep him or draft him at 2B.  The key is realizing that, and not paying to much to get him on your roster.  Batting average is nice, but it also fluctuates.  If you are depending on a player to hit for a high average to justify the price you are going to pay, and they don’t, that is just wasted money.  Despite all the stats that indicate that he will continue to hit well, stranger things have happened than a second-year player hitting significantly worse than he did in his rookie year.  Some bad luck and a downturn in his BABIP and the player you think of as your “stud, rookie of the year, keeper” is just a slightly better version of Skip Schumaker.

2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections: .308 BA, 11 HR, 42 RBI, 90 R, 12 SB, 605 AB

First Base

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Top Tier : Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, Mark Teixeira

It would be very easy to put Albert Pujols in this tier by himself.  After all, in 99% of fantasy baseball rankings in the world, Pujols will be the overall most valuable player.  There is no need to say anything more than that about the best fantasy commodity in baseball.  Miguel Cabrera is a huge season waiting to happen.  This kid actually reminds me a great deal of Pujols.  He broke into the league at a young age and started producing from day one.  He also has never had what you can call a “bad” season.  He hits for power, drives in runs, and his batting average is awesome.  The only thing Pujols offers that he does not is speed.  Cabrera is that magic age of 27 years old this season.  The other three choices are also fine additions to your team that will provide the offensive power and run production that you can build your team around.

Ryan Howard’s batting average is usually not as good as the other options in the first tier, but his RBI total year to year is awesome.  Prince Fielder has as much power as any of these names, but his final line varies a bit from season to season (HR TOTALS:  2007 – 50, 2008 – 36, 2009 – 46).  If you draft him in a season where he puts it all together, you get one of the best fantasy players in the game.  Finally, we come to Mark Teixeira.  He has power (though has not broken the 40 HR mark in several seasons) and his batting average is consistently high.  If he can just start hitting during April like he does later in the season, he could be a top 10 player (he is a notoriously slow starter).

Second Tier : Justin Morneau, Adrian Gonzalez, Joey Votto, Kevin Youkilis, Kendry Morales, Adam Dunn, Derrek Lee

These options at first base are all quality that you can draft for a cheaper price, but can put up production that help your team greatly.  All, however, have some flaw that keep them out of that top tier.  The name on this list that people are most often going to point to as belonging in the top tier is Adrian Gonzalez.  Coming off of his first 40 HR season, his owners love his ability.  I do too.  What keeps him out of the top tier is two-fold.  Firstly, his batting average and RBI total from year to year is not in the upper echelon of the position.  He has not had a BA over .282 in the last three seasons, and in two of those three seasons his RBI total was under 101.  Also, his ballpark and supporting cast are working against him repeating the power he showed, and his RBI total improving much.  He is quality, but since his price in your auction is likely to be as high as the previous tier, you should let him pass your team by.

Justin Morneau is another name that often is ranked with the top names at first base.  Sure, he puts together a good season now and again, but his final stat line is very different from season to season.  One year he will hit .271, then the next year he will hit .300.  One year he will hit 31 HR, the next he will hit 23.  Even his RBI total varies greatly, ranging from 100 to 129 over the last three seasons.  This unpredictability keeps him in the second tier.  Joey Votto is one of the up-and-comers at first base.  He hit everything that moved in the first half of 2009, with a .351 batting average.  Even in the second half when he cooled off to only .300, his power levels remained just as high as in the first half.  If he can maintain that batting average and power levels (and stay on the field for 550 ABs) he could join the upper level as soon as 2011.

Everyone knows that Adam Dunn has great power, and usually has a bad batting average.  It is that batting average that keeps him in the second tier year after year.  I will not raise him up to the top level because he brought that average up to .267 last season.  Derrek Lee is old, and his resurgent 2009 is no reason to pay the price as though he was back in his prime.  Lee, to me, is one of those players that GMs are going to massively overpay for in 2010 fantasy drafts and auctions.  See my Overrated Fantasy Hitters article for details.  Kendry Morales was a great pickup last season, but I would like to see him repeat those numbers (and boost that runs total) before he is ranked any higher.  I would also like to see him hit better while batting right-handed.  There is a good argument to put him in the third tier instead of the second.

Third Tier : Pablo Sandoval, Victor Martinez, Lance Berkman, Carlos Pena, Billy Butler

There is good upside in this tier.  Both Pablo Sandoval and Billy Butler could take steps forward in 2010 which would seriously upgrade their ranking.  Sandoval swings at everything he sees, but keeps that batting average high.  Butler’s surrounding cast limits his run production upside, and he has yet to show more than 20-something HR power.  He is, however, country strong and a 30 HR season is possible.  Victor Martinez will go for too much bid money or too high a draft pick to use at first base.  Someone will use him at catcher, where is is indeed worth much more.  Carlos Pena sure has power, but that batting average will cost your team some points.  Be careful paying to much for just the HR category.  Poor Big Puma.  Lance Berkman has been very inconsistent over the seasons, and the wheels just completely came off the bus is 2009.  With his lowest RBI and HR total since 2005, Berkman’s price is sure to be reduced in 2010.  I would love to grab him at this reduced price, since he has recovered from similarly poor seasons in his past with monster years the next.

Fourth Tier : James Loney, Jorge Cantu, Paul Konerko, Jose Lopez, Adam LaRoche, Martin Prado, Todd Helton, Garrett Jones, Nick Johnson, Aubrey Huff, Michael Cuddyer,Chris Davis

Look at all this quality talent still around after the “top” 17 options are off the board.  There are really two fantasy baseball strategies for drafting first basemen.  You can use an early draft pick or lots of bid money on a top slugger that will put up huge numbers.  Or you can wait many rounds and pay much less for a player that will produce good-but-not-great numbers, while drafting better players at thiner positions.  If you chose the second strategy, make sure that you get a first baseman that is no lower than this tier.  There are plenty of guys here that will hit you 20ish home runs with a decent batting average and 90ish RBI.  Are they superstars?  No.  However, if you draft someone with that early pick (or large bid) at a thin position (like 2B) that is a superstar and combine their numbers with one of these mediocre 1B options, you can break even with a team that uses the inverse strategy.  Let’s hit the highlights of this tier.

James Loney is consistent, but has failed to take a significant step forward since establishing a baseline of production.  Jorge Cantu has defied the odds to make a nice comeback after two down seasons.  At this point, it appears as though his numbers are reliable though not spectacular.  Garrett Jones is sure to top many fantasy baseball sleeper lists for the 2010.  After hitting 21 home runs in only 314 ABs, plenty of knowledgeable GMs are going to be willing to wait on a first baseman counting on drafting Jones later.

Michael Cuddyer is sure to draw skepticism from fantasy GMs this season.  However, this kid was highly touted when coming into the big leagues, and his numbers were consistent in a month-to-month breakdown of 2009.  While 34 home runs may be a bit much to expect again from Cuddyer in 2010, he is a solid player that can help your team if you grab him late.  Martin Prado is a lower-profile sleeper that has some upside.  Don’t wait too long though, because he does qualify at thiner positions than first base and could be taken at second or third base if you sleep on him.  Do I have to tell you that Nick Johnson is an injury risk?  Jose Lopez was one of only two Mariners that hit more than 20 home runs in 2009.  Like Prado, Lopez can be taken at 2B as well.  Chris Davis was last year’s hot pickup that was overpaid for in leagues everywhere.  Don’t let that be you again this year.  Power potential is great, but a certain bad batting average is awful.  Until he proves he can stick around in the show, contain your excitement (and your bid).

The Rest : Garrett Atkins, Carlos Delgado, Mark DeRosa (10), Mark Teahen (11), Ty Wigginton, Nick Swisher, Hank Blalock, Luke Scott, Russell Branyan, Mike Jacobs, Ryan Garko, Daniel Murphy, Lyle Overbay, Jeff Clement

While there is still upside present in this final tier, you are looking at some longer odds for a breakthrough power season.  In fact, when you get this low in the tiers playing time could start to be an issue.  I am personally not a Chris Davis fan.  There is no questioning that the kid has power, but that walk rate is terrible and the strikeouts come in bunches.  The quickest way for a touted hitter to turn into a fantasy bust is for him to strike out a ton and walk very little.  Garrett Atkins could rebound after a terrible 2009, but how often does a player get better after leaving Colorado?  Carlos Delgado is still looking for a job at the time of this posting, and his age and poor 2009 are working against his fantasy value.  Russell Branyan looked like a resurgence was coming in 2009, but injury derailed his attempt.  I would not bet on such quality production happening again.  Jeff Clement has been jerked around for many seasons, and that could still happen in the crowded first base picture on the Pirates.  Mark DeRosa’s breakout came fairly late in his career.  In that pitcher’s ballpark surrounded by a mediocre cast I doubt his numbers will be as good as in his recent past.

AB/HR

1. Randy Ruiz  (DH) TOR – 11.50
2. Albert Pujols  (1B) STL – 12.09
3. Russell Branyan  (1B) SEA – 13.90
4. Nelson Cruz  (OF) TEX – 14.00
5. Jonny Gomes  (OF) CIN – 14.05
6. Kyle Blanks  (OF) SD – 14.08
7. Garrett Jones  (1B) PIT – 14.95
8. Mark Teixeira  (1B) NYY – 15.62
9. Jay Bruce  (OF) CIN – 15.68
10. Jason Werth  (OF) PHI – 15.86
11. Ryan Rayburn  (OF) DET – 16.31
12. Rickie Weeks  (2B) MIL – 16.33
13. Kendry Morales  (1B) LAA – 16.65
14. Carlos Quentin  (OF) CWS – 16.71
15. Adam Lind  (OF) TOR – 16.77
16. Miguel Olivo  (C) KC – 16.96
17. Troy Tulowitzki  (SS) COL – 16.97
18. Ian Stewart  (3B) COL – 17.00
19. Josh Willingham  (OF) WAS – 17.79
20. Luke Scott  (OF) BAL – 17.96
21. Chris Iannetta (C) COL – 18.06
22. Dan Uggla  (2B) FLA – 18.19
23. Ian Kinsler  (2B) TEX – 18.26
24. Chase Utley  (2B) PHI – 18.42
25. Ryan Zimmerman  (3B) WAS – 18.48
26. Ben Zobrist (2B) TB – 18.56
27. Chris Davis  (1B) TEX – 18.62
28. Jake Fox (3B) OAK – 19.64
29. Landon Powell  (C) OAK – 20.00
30. Laynce Nix  (OF) CIN – 20.60
31. Juan Rivera  (OF) LAA – 21.16
32. Carlos Gonzalez (OF) COL – 21.38
33. Seth Smith (OF) COL – 22.33
34. Pablo Sandoval (3B) SF – 22.88
35. Matt Kemp (OF) LAD – 23.31
36. Will Venable  (OF) SD – 24.42
37. Robinson Cano  (2B) NYY – 25.48
38. Vladimir Guerrero  (DH) LAA – 25.53
39. Gordon Beckham  (2B) CWS – 27.00
40. Nick Markakis  (OF) BAL – 35.67

At the top of the list is Randy Ruiz.  This career minor leaguer has been bouncing around in the minors since 1999.  The poor guy has had 16 different teams over the years (and two different stints at two of the same places).  He swatted 10 HRs in 115 ABs with the big club in 2009.  He has shown decent power in the minors, but is already 31 years old so the odds are long he will contribute.  Check back later in the spring to see if he will actually play, but keep him on your radar.

Kyle Blanks is another name that jumps out at me from that list.  They love him in San Diego, and I expect him to play regularly in 2010.  He has power, but like every Padre, his upside is limited by the team around him and his home ballpark.  Hope that he has a so-so spring and you can grab him cheap.

It is good to see that Carlos Quentin is still high up on that list.  After a huge 2008, Quentin’s season was cut in half by injury.  His numbers were not the same as his breakout season, but they were similar enough to gamble on.  While his season totals were down, his AB/HR ratio only went from 13.33 to 16.71.  Hopefully, you can get him at a discount in your league and ride the rebound to 30+ home runs in 2010.

Another name you should pick out of this list is Jake Fox.  He is the likely starter at third base in Oakland, and showed good power in limited action in 2009.  His minor league numbers make this believable, but it looks like he won’t be a high average type hitter.  Even in the minors his average was mediocre and his OBP was on the low side.

There are always one or two of those second half gems out there.  Players that didn’t really get any playing time until fairly late in the season, but wound up being productive regulars.  This is exactly what you should be looking for.  Players that have a good chance to produce above their reputation or price, but that came along late enough that most of your competition didn’t notice them last year.  Face it, in most leagues there are about half the teams that stop paying attention when they think they are out of it.  Garrett Jones is one of these players.  Because of that, you may be able to sneak this guy by cheap and late if you are in a deep league and it looks as though he will start.  Don’t expect a high average, but 20 HRs is obviously possible.

Check out the previous edition of Stats You Need to Know

Every question answered brings up another one.

Stats are weird.  They can give you insight to how much potential a player has.  However, a little information can be a dangerous thing.  It is easy to look at a player that had a good season and develop an man-crush to the point where you ignore warning signs.  Signs such as striking out too much, or splits that could lead to decreased playing time if a slump occurs must be accounted for when you value your players.  You cannot judge a player’s value to your fantasy squad solely based on the scoring category numbers he produces.  The secondary layers of stats need to peeled back to show the soft, pink, vulnerable, underbelly of the player you are researching.  So when I run into a stat that makes me sit up and say, “Hey, that’s kinda weird.”  I like to pass it on (thus, the “Stat Trivia” page on the menu bar).  It is not uncommon for a single stat that I find randomly in my research will lead me to a closer look on various players.  Sometimes, that single stat that makes me take notice leads to an entire change in my thinking on a player.  So take a look at some of these stats.  Some of them could be just random.  Some of them could make you take a closer look at a player you had ignored.  Some of them could set off warning alarms about a player you love blindly.

Having an obvious weakness against either left or right handed pitching is one of the surest ways for a player to find themselves losing playing time.  In order for this type of flaw in a player’s game to be ignored, they have to offer something special in another area or areas.  Perhaps they are a gold glove defender, or maybe a huge power hitter.  If they do not offer some advantage of that sort, a player will always be vulnerable to losing ABs.  Some of the names on these lists could surprise you…

The following is a list of players who hit below .240 against left-handed pitching:

• Adrian Gonzalez – .234 – surprising
• Curtis Granderson – .183 – wow
• Jimmy Rollins – .230
• Aubry Huff – .237
• Carlos Pena – .211 – not surprising
• Andre Either – .194 – Be careful keeper-leaguers!
• David Ortiz – .212
• B.J. Upton – .190 – uh-oh!
• Ryan Howard – .207
• Brian McCann – .225
• Russell Branyan – .222
• Yunel Escobar – .232
• Vernon Wells – .206 – and still owed over $100 million
• Jack Cust – .221
• Stephen Drew – .200 – did NOT take a step forward in ‘09
• Lance Berkman – .231
• Grady Sizemore – .216
• Nelson Cruz – .235
• Dan Uggla – .208
• Pat Burrell – .202
• Jeremy Hermida – .189
• Colby Rasmus – .160
• Nate McLouth – .192
• Jay Bruce – .210

Because the league hit slightly higher against right-handed pitching than they did against left-handed pitching (on average), we will use .250 as the alarm point for these purposes.

The following is a list of players that hit below .250 against right-handed pitching:

• Brandon Inge – .225
• Ian Kinsler – .230 – worrisome for a first rounder
• Alexi Ramirez – .248
• Jermaine Dye – .236
• Jack Cust – .238
• Chris Young (ARI)- .196 – he was supposed to be good
• Gerald Laird – .218
• Ken Griffey Jr – .217
• Carlos Pena – .236
• Dexter Fowler – .240
• Pat Burrell – .229
• Russell Martin – .243
• Kevin Kouzmanoff – .241
• Kaz Matsui – .238
• J.J. Hardy – .245 – Pissed at organization, needs a trade
• Brandon Moss – .237
• Rick Ankiel – .230
• Gordon Beckham – .250 – temper expectations
• Hank Blalock – .234
• Geovani Soto – .221 – Oneder?
• Carlos Quentin – .245
• Jay Bruce – .229 – He’s on both lists
• Dionner Navarro – .182
• Josh Hamilton – .239
• Garret Atkins – .199
• Chris Iannetta – .202
• Jason Giambi – .171

Check out the next edition of MLB Stats You Need to Know.