Bartlett achieved his career year on 500 at-bats, but will have 20% more at-bats in 2010. The cumulative categories (Home runs, stolen bases, RBIs and runs) can only be positively affected by 100 more at-bats. Even with a slight regression in production per at-bat, last year’s numbers are more than achievable; they can be exceeded. Let’s look at how 600 at-bats in the leadoff position should affect Bartlett’s 2010 numbers.

Home Runs
No number was more of a breakout last year for Bartlett than his home run total in 2009. He hit 14 long-balls, nine more than his previous best for a season. Still, his relatively high total of home runs last season works out to just one home run every 36 at-bats. That’s not exactly Babe Ruth or Ralph Kiner. Even if Bartlett regresses to just one home run per 50 at-bats, in a 600 at-bat season, he still hits 12 home runs, just two shy of that breakout total of 14. To put it in perspective, that’s basically one home run every two weeks. If he cracks two in one series, he doesn’t have to hit one for another month. Bartlett can handle that. The Bartlett owner-to-be isn’t exactly buying him for his power anyway. In fact, the home run jump that seems unsustainable, might be scaring him off. But as we can see, the extra at-bats cushion the risk of a return to a four or five home run season.

Stolen Bases
This category is a double bonus. Whereas home runs is a category in which Bartlett’s extra at-bats mitigate risk, stolen bases gets two serious bumps from this move. First, where most of the experts are predicting around 30 stolen bases on about 500 at-bats, we can now update that number. Adding 20 percent to 30 is easy.  So is 36 the new stolen base number? The Sporting News™ is the only fantasy baseball publication I use that has predicted 600 at-bats and get this, they predict 35 stolen bases.

But there’s another difference that adds value beyond the 20 percent already tacked on. Batting toward the bottom of the order doesn’t always lend to running situations. The leadoff spot is designed around it. So, related to stolen bases, Bartlett isn’t just receiving more at-bats, he’s receiving a higher quality of at-bat too. A 40 stolen base season is well within reach.

Runs
The same two positives that will affect stolen bases will have a similarly positive impact on the runs category. The 20 percent added to last year’s total(90 runs) will add 18, to bring the projection to 108 runs. That’s a huge number. Remember the aforementioned Sporting News with the 600 at-bat Bartlett line? They project 111 runs scored. Add to it that when batting near the bottom of the order, Bartlett was often stranded by lesser hitters.

If Carl Crawford and the rest of the heart of the order had a chance to drive him in, you could be sure there would be a few outs on the board already. But now Bartlett will always, always be followed by the best on the team. The one hitter is driven in by the three and four hitters a hell of a lot more than the eight hitter. Stolen bases and runs stand to receive the largest jump and with all these opportunities, 110 runs suddenly seems like the right floor. If this Tampa offense cranks away this season, Bartlett could end up 5 – 15 runs higher than that.

Runs Batted In
RBIs seems to be the one category in which the leadoff hitter doesn’t have a huge edge on the others in the order, to varying degrees of course. You can guarantee that there will be no one on base during the first at-bat of the game, so the extra at-bats add a little less to this category. Still, slight improvements to RBIs are to be expected, just based on total chances, but don’t bet on too much. Add five to ten RBIs to last year’s 65 and you should be safe.

Batting Average
This is the toughest category to predict. Can Bartlett keep up the .320 average he displayed last year? Likely not, but imagine a .295 average on 600 at-bats. That’s a fair regression and leaves plenty of room for realistic upside. So, at .295, that’s 177 hits. That’s 17 more total hits than the breakout year of 2009. And that’s with a very conservative estimate for at-bats. There’s no reason to believe that 100 extra at-bats sprinkled evenly throughout the course of a season will have a tiring effect on a veteran like Bartlett. The fact that we can be so conservative in our batting average projections and still exceed last year’s number with higher quality at-bats is the clearest indication of how undervalued Bartlett’s stats really are.

Fantasy Implications

Last year I bid on Russell Branyan at third base and got him for nothing. I noticed that he was going to play everyday, putting his 2009 reality far above his projected at-bats. In the three seasons leading into 2009, Branyan had collected a total of 536 at-bats and hit a whopping 40 home runs (one home run per 13.4 at-bats), virtually in line with his now career home per at-bat rate one for every 14.8 at-bats. So it became a question of math. How many at-bats was he going to get. In the end, he got injured, but by that time he had amassed 431 at-bats and 31 home runs, one home run ever 13.9 at-bats–right on target! Sure, I had to finish with an also-ran in Branyan’s spot, but by that time, that roster spot had produced, among other things, 31 home runs, a great total for a third baseman that cost me nothing.

The point is, fantasy baseball is a game of math. If you see a player who will be getting many more at-bats than the fantasy baseball magazines and, more importantly, your friends think he will, then the player is under-valued. There are under-valued players like Branyan at the bottom rungs of the depth charts, and once in a while there’s a player like Bartlett, who’s got a high price tag, but remains under-valued nonetheless. Also, the game isn’t about getting a whole team of under-priced players. The key is to strike a balance between stats you can buy on the cheap while paying the price for the stats you absolutely must have. Some players are worth the price tag.

That said, my new 2010 fantasy baseball projection for Jason Bartlett is:

600 abs/12 home runs/73 RBIs/114 runs/41 stolen bases/.295 BA

Michael Brantley  (OF – CLE) –  Brantley has recently been announced as the frontrunner for the Indians left field starting job.  There is good reason for this, and for you to know his name when your fantasy baseball draft or auction rolls around.  When your competition looks at their fantasy baseball magazines (most of them waiting until the week before the draft to do so), they are going to see a snapshot of his production that does not match up with his skills.  In 2009 Brantley recorded 112 ABs with no power at all, 4 SBs, a .313 batting average, and 19 Ks compared to 8 BBs.  The only number in this line that actually can be expected to continue is the batting average.  That K rate (17.0%) is substantially higher than what he consistently produced in the minors, and the BB/9 rate (6.6%) is significantly lower.  In the minors, Brantley’s worst BB rate was 10.4% and ranged up to 13.0%.  The K rate he produced in the minors was never higher than 13.4% in 2007, and was as low as 6.4% in 2008.  In his entire minor league career, he never recorded an OBP that was lower than .350 in any stop.

It is natural, in fact it is common, for minor leaguers that get the call to the bigs to struggle in their first shot at the best pitchers in the world.  However, Brantley has shown that he understands the strike zone, and even in his short big league stint put up a 91.4% contact rate.  These stats are very encouraging.  While he will not hit for power, his speed is for real as shown by his 46 SBs in AAA during the 2009 season.  His success rate was equally impressive as he was only caught stealing 5 times.  If he hits well this spring and secures that starting job, look for him to put up speed numbers that can help your team well beyond the cost that it will take to land him in your draft.

Jason Heyward  (OF – ATL) –  Here is a name that the casual fantasy baseball GM may miss entirely.  With no major league stats to look at, it takes an informed GM to know that Heyward is one of the best minor league prospects in the game.  Bobby Cox recently stated that Heyward could break camp with the big club, and this would be consistent with his fast rise through the minor league system.  In 2008, Heyward started the season in A-ball with 189 ABs where he hit 11 HRs and 15 SBs, with a .323 BA, a .388 OBP, and a .66 BB/K rate in 449 ABs.  In 2009 he started the season in A+ ball, where his excellent production continued, posting a line of 10 HR and 4 SBs, with a .296 BA, a .360 OBP, and a BB/K rate of .70 in 189 ABs.  After that he was promoted to the AA level, and he did not slow down at all.  In 162 ABs at that level, the power continued with 7 HRs, the speed continued with 5 SBs, the average continued at .352, and his improvement to his BB/K rate took a jump up to 1.47 in 162 ABs.

All of these signs show a player that understands the strike zone, has the power to contribute at the major league level, and can steal a base or two in the process.  As a low-profile player with no major league stats to look at, he could be cheap enough to be the fantasy baseball sleeper that every team is looking for.  Keep track of this situation in the spring, as Heyward only has to beat out Matt Diaz to win a significant amount of playing time in 2010.  Since Diaz tends to struggle versus right-handed pitching, Heyward forcing his way into the picture is a good gamble.  On a side note, this kid is huge at 6′4″ and could develop significantly more power going forward.

Everth Cabrera  (SS – SD) –  This sleeper is a little higher-profile than the first two since he recorded 377 ABs with the Padres in 2009.  However, the stat line that he produced in that time was below what Cabrera is capable of, and some of the numbers he posted could even scare away some GMs.  Needless to say, any sleeper at shortstop is worthy of your attention and consideration.  Cabrera does have a few flaws in his game.  His K rate is too high, and his BB rate is too low.  Yet the potential is there for Cabrera to completely blow away the numbers he posted in 2009.

Firstly, the starting job is his.  There is no question that barring injury Cabrera will be a full-time starter in 2010.  Secondly, the numbers that he posted in his short minor league career point to abilities that he did not show in 2009.  While other GMs are focused on his .255 BA in 2009, you should focus on the fact that he had only 50 ABs above A-Ball before being called up to the big leagues.  In his last “full” season in the minors (Rockies-A), Cabrera’s BB/9 rate was actually lower than it was in the big leagues, and while his K rate was higher, it was in the same ballpark as his stint in the bigs.  It is also worthy of note that while that .255 BA from 2009 was not desirable, his OBP was .342 which is very respectable (also, his BABIP during his big league ABs was the lower than any stint in his minor league career).

While other GMs focus on the fact that Cabrera only stole 25 bases while being caught 8 times in 2009, you should focus on the fact that Cabrera stole 73 bases in the minors during the 2008 season and was caught only 16 times.  He has speed to burn.  Oh, and did I mention that this kid is only 23 years old?  Sure, his supporting cast and ballpark are working against his power, RBI, and runs scored.  Yet when talking about a speedster, you are looking for help in the SB and BA category, both of which Cabrera could offer your team for a fraction of the price that a Ryan Theriot or Asdrubal Cabrera will cost.  Finding a sleeper in the outfield is great, as Brantley and Heyward could be.  However, finding a sleeper at a thinner position such as shortstop is what can win you a league.  Follow Everth’s progress this spring, and hope that he doesn’t steal so many bases that his low-profile status is blown.

Outfield

——————

Top Tier:  Ryan Braun, Carl Crawford, Matt Kemp, Jacoby Ellsbury, Matt Holliday, Justin Upton, Jason Bay

Some of the best power and speed mixes in fantasy baseball are in this tier.  Ryan Braun has hit non-stop since joining the major league club.  He hits for power, a high batting average, and even set a career high in stolen bases in 2009.  He is only 26 years old.  Carl Crawford proved that he wasn’t finished after a mediocre 2008, finishing 2009 with 60 SBs and his highest home run total since 2006.  He even got that batting average over .300 to prove himself once again a 5-category threat.  Matt Kemp has the potential to take over the number one slot if he improves again in 2010.  Showing the ability to produce in all five categories, he tops my list for likely members of the 30-30 club in 2010.  Jacoby Ellsbury is a stolen base machine, and he apparently knows it.  He likes to steal, and wants to set milestones.  Expect it to continue in 2010.

Now that Matt Holliday has had a productive season away from Colorado, his price will go back up in 2010.  His power could grow a bit more in 2010, and he even kept up the stolen bases in 2009.  More importantly he still hit over .300.  While not the most flashy pick, he is dependable.  Justin Upton has plenty of upside, but even if he can manage to reach last season’s totals, he is ready to lead your outfield corp.  One red light about Upton is that his BABIP was a little higher than usual in 2009.  Some people may balk at paying full price for Jason Bay in 2010 since he signed to play half his games at Citi-field.  Don’t be one of them.  All he has to do is increase his batting average in 2010 and he will be a bonafide leader of fantasy teams.  The Mets like to use speed on the bases, so even if Bay loses a little of his HR production, he will likely steal more bases.

Second Tier:  Grady Sizemore, Adam Dunn, Curtis Granderson, Manny Ramirez,  Shane Victorino, B.J. Upton, Bobby Abreu, Shin-Soo Choo, Nelson Cruz, Jayson Werth

Several of these players have been in the top tier before, and some may be there after 2010.  Grady Sizemore was a sure top 3 outfield pick in 2009 fantasy baseball drafts and auctions.  Injury ruined his season (along with many fantasy baseball teams).  The Indians are pathetic offensively (if not completely), so his runs and RBI totals may suffer.  However, his power and speed remain intact.  Adam Dunn put together his usual power-heavy season, but finally did so along with a batting average that was not a detriment to fantasy rosters.  It still wasn’t a good batting average, but it was better than usual.  I thought he was over priced before he raised that average in 2009.  In 2010 he will be even more expensive.  Curtis Granderson saw his value jump drastically in this off-season when he was traded from the Tigers to the Yankees.  It remains to be seen where he will hit in the batting order, but wherever it is, it will be better for his fantasy value than anyplace within the city limits of Detroit.  All he needs to do is raise that batting average against left-handed pitching (2009- .183) and he can join the elites in the outfield.  Manny Ramirez is, well, Manny.  I don’t think age is really a factor for him quite yet.  Expect another .300 average with 30ish home runs.  He is in a contract year, so perhaps he will take the game seriously in 2010 and uptick.

Nelson Cruz offered great power and even threw in 20 stolen bases for fantasy owners in 2009.  He figured out minor league pitching, but has needed some time to be effective on the big stage.  Now that he is here, he is not going back.  If he can just get that BB/K rate closer to what he did in 2008, he could be a star.  Note:  Cruz is 30 years old this year, so realize that before paying a premium in keeper-leagues.  Perhaps the most upside in this group is B.J. Upton.  We saw what he could do in his awesome first full season, but it seems he has taken a step back at the plate.  Believers in him took comfort in the fact that despite his drop in batting average and power from 2007 to 2008, his OBP remained almost identical.  In 2009, that OBP dropped by 70 points.  The drop in his 2009 walk rate is undeniable, and should the trend continue this season his supporters will start to fade.  This is the last season I would pay full price for him unless he takes a step forward.  Shin-Soo Choo went 20-20 in 2009.  He was one of only 7 OFs to accomplish that feat.  His production was more than solid, and in no month did he hit lower than he did in May (.274).  His splits against RHP and LHP are good, so it is not likely that he will lose his starting status to some sort of platoon.

Did Jayson Werth finally prove to all his doubters how good he is?  He stayed healthy all year, started all year, and wound up producing numbers that were worth of much more bid money than he went for in 2009 auctions.  Do not expect him to come so cheap this season.  A word of warning about Werth.  His breakout came late (he is 31 this year), so I would not count him among “core” team members that you want to build a keeper team around.  He’s good, but his shelf life is probably not going to be that long.

Third Tier:  Carlos Lee, Carlos Quentin, Nick Markakis, Andre Ethier, Adam Lind, Torii Hunter, Hunter Pence, Nyjer Morgan, Ben Zobrist, Michael Cuddyer, Michael Bourn, Nate McLouth, Adam Jones, Andrew McCutchen, Josh Hamilton, Brad Hawpe, Denard Span, Juan Pierre, Raul Ibanez, Nolan Reimold, Jermaine Dye, Jason Kubel, Ryan Ludwick

Carlos Lee may be boring, but he is money in the bank.  It appears that his power and speed peaked in 2006, but he is still good for solid production in 4 out of the 5 scoring categories.  Do not underestimate how valuable 20-something HRs is with 100 RBI and a .300 BA.  After all, only 13 outfielders hit .300 in 2009.  Of those 13, only 6 of them hit 20 or more HRs, and of those, only 4 also had 100 RBI.  There is value here.  I like Carlos Quentin to rebound in a big way in 2010. When looking at his injuries and numbers in 2009, that may scare away other GMs.  After all, he still has only one really successful season under his belt.  Realize, however, that his AB/HR ratio remained steady in 2009.  Coming into the season healthy should help him move back into the second tier for 2011.  Nick Markakis may be a little overrated.  He has never topped 23 HRs, both his BB rate and his OBP were the lowest of his career in 2009, and his steals total has dropped drastically since his breakout season in 2007.  Beware of spending too much on him.  There is one big difference between Nyjer Morgan and Michael Bourn.  That is:  Nyjer Morgan has a track record with a good batting average, and Bourn does not.  Like the old saying goes, you can’t steal first base.  Bourn’s increase in batting average for the 2009 season was a surprise.  Don’t be surprised if it sinks significantly lower in 2010.

Ben Zobrist is a nice player, but should be taken at one of the infield positions before his name comes up on the outfield depth chart.  Andre Ethier and Adam Lind are in a similar situation.  Both just had a breakout 2009 in which they hit over 30 HRs.  Lind’s breakout could be real if he sticks to what he did in 2009.  He improved his plate discipline in a big way.  His percentage of balls outside the strike zone swung at dropped significantly, and his walk rate increased as a result.  The Blue Jays appear to be in a rebuilding year, so beware that Lind may not have as much support around him in the lineup as you would like.  Andre Ethier got a shot to play every day in 2009 and made the most of it.  While his BB rate went up, so did his K rate.  His BABIP actually was lower in 2009 than 2008, so perhaps that batting average will rise a bit in 2010.  One potential stumbling block for Ethier is that he has trouble with left-handed pitching (BA vs. LHP: 2008- .243, 2009- .194).

Andrew McCutchen is one of those players that people are hoping to slip by as a sleeper, but there is just no way.  He is going to go for big bucks in auctions as GMs hope to grab the next big power/speed threat.  The fact that he is on the Pirates limits his production in runs and RBI.  If you want a lower-key potential breakout, look to Adam Jones.  He could be this season’s power/speed outfielder, and his numbers from 2009 are not as likely to draw the attention of your competition.  Nolan Reimold may break-out in a similar fashion in 2010.  He has a good BB/K rate, and does not swing at too many balls outside of the strike-zone.  He may even steals bases for you.  This spring, monitor the healthy of his recently operated-on Achilles tendon before you draft him.  Don’t go overboard, since he still has to prove he can hit at the major league level, but a modest bid could pay big dividends.

I am not a believer in Josh Hamilton.  When he was young, there was crazy hype surrounded by injuries and mysterious “personal problems”.  He finally dealt with his issues, and had one monster season.  Then, right back to the injuries with worse performance when he did play.  I don’t care about the night he spent in a bar, and do not think that he is much risk to fall into that lifestyle again.  I care about his ability to hit, which is far from proven.  He could have another good season, but some fantasy baseball magazines I have seen rank him as high as a top 10 outfielder.  The price he will bring for the risk he represents is too high.  Juan Pierre is a full-time player again, and his fantasy value will take a huge rebound.  After filling in very nicely for Manny Ramirez during his suspension, the White Sox are going to let him lead off in 2010.  He can still hit and steal bases, but will cost less than the last time he was a full time player.

Fourth Tier:  Chris Coghlan, Alfonso Soriano, Alex Rios, Marlon Byrd, Vernon Wells, Carlos Gonzalez, Jay Bruce, Johnny Damon, Franklin Gutierrez, Magglio Ordonez, Mike Cameron, Corey Hart, J.D. Drew, Garrett Jones, Julio Borbon, Jeff Francoeur, Carlos Gomez, Milton Bradley, Carlos Beltran, Coco Crisp, Chris Young, Josh Willingham, Kyle Blanks, Mark Teahen, Conor Jackson, Elijah Dukes, Mark DeRosa, Melky Cabrera, David Dejesus, Cody Ross, Rajai Davis, Lastings Milledge, Jose Guillen, Juan Rivera, Matt LaPorta

Chris Coghlan is a nice little player.  He will be overrated in 2010 fantasy baseball drafts, and overpriced too.  To read a complete analysis, read Coghlan’s Player Profile.  Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Beltran both appear to be in decline as well as significant injury risks.  Beltran now finds himself in trouble with the Mets due to a recent surgery which could jeopardize his status for opening day.  Do not pay for their names.  Alex Rios has the confidence of manager Ozzie Guillen.  He should play every day, and will likely rebound a good bit.  His reputation (both on and off the field) has taken a beating over the last year, so you may be able to steal him cheap.  Want a cheap option in the outfield that has both power and speed?  Look to Franklin Gutierrez.  He will fly under the radar at fantasy drafts and auctions, but has his playing time locked it, and can serve as an above average 3rd outfielder.  I am very skeptical of Marlon Byrd.  This guy has a fairly long track record, and 2009 was his first truly good season.  While his batting average has made progress over the last few seasons, the power came from nowhere and his BB rate was his lowest since 2002.

Julio Borbon is going to be one of the unproven players in 2010 auctions that goes for big money.  He may, however, be worth it.  He has been announced as a starter for 2010, and his speed and batting average appear to be for real.  He could even throw in above average power for a speedster in Arlington.  Speaking of potential that will cost you, Carlos Gonzalez put up enough of a stat-line that fantasy GMs are not going to look past him.  Highly touted, Gonzalez put up 13 HR and 16 SB in under 300 ABs.  I am hoping that Carlos Gomez will slip under the radar of my competition.  His batting average could be lower than I would like, but if his price matches, I like the upside he offers with a full-time job for the Brewers.  He is crazy fast, but keep your bidding low since his OBP has been under .300 for three straight seasons.  Kyle Blanks is another player who’s 2009 numbers are mediocre enough that he could slip under the radar.  The kid is huge, has huge power, and will start all season.  Sure, the ballpark and supporting cast hurt his numbers, but you aren’t drafting him to be your #1 outfielder.  As a #3 or 4 he should be above average.

Could this be the season that Jay Bruce finally establishes himself as a true fantasy asset?  Yes, I think so.  While the casual fantasy GM will look at the batting average drop he suffered in 2009, the secondary numbers paint a different picture.  His AB/HR ratio went up, his BB/K rate went up, and his BABIP for 2009 was absurdly low (.222).  If those GMs that loved him have soured on him due to his BA, grab him at a discount.  Power galore.  Conor Jackson had a very odd season in 2009.  He was suffering from valley fever, which is a disease caught from the spores of a desert fungi.  Wow.  He is tearing the cover off of the ball in the off-season, and should pick up where he left off in 2008, a potential breakout with a good BA.  He qualifies as a sleeper this year, since he is being ranked very low in many draft prep articles and fantasy baseball rankings.

Chris Young had a miserable 2009, and that continues a trend of bad news.  For two straight years his power has dropped.  For two straight years his batting average has dropped.  For two straight years, his stolen bases have dropped, his K rate has risen, and his OPS has dropped.  These are all very worrying signs.  Strangely, he did post his major league best BB rate in 2009 (though he didn’t use that to steal a single base after the All-Star Break).  He also picked up the pace in September and October, having his best month of the year.  If you can slip him by, he definitely still has good upside, but I would want him to fall into my lap rather than pay more than a couple dollars.

A similar disappointing season was turned in by Elijah Dukes.  This kid has all the talent in the world, but can’t seem to put it all together.  He is seeing fewer fastballs (49.1%-2009 vs. 56.9%-2008) and this helped him put up the worst K rate of his major league career (20.3%).  Another number of note for Dukes in 2009: 3 SB, 10 CS.  Rajai Davis is another player who’s numbers from 2009 will prevent him from having “sleeper” status in 2010 fantasy baseball auctions.  There is no such thing as a sleeper that put up 40+ stolen bases the season before.  I would like to see his K rate get a little better if he is to bat leadoff, but his minor league numbers support his 2009 batting average.

Fifth Tier: Delmon Young, Luke Scott, Aaron Rowand, Xavier Nady, Nick Swisher, Jack Cust, Gerardo Parra, Jake Fox, Garret Anderson, Randy Winn, Ryan Garko, Willy Taveras, Skip Schumaker, Scott Podsednik, Colby Rasmus, Ryan Church, Chris Dickerson, Kosuke Fukudome, Matt Diaz, Jonny Gomes, Carlos Guillen, Travis Snider, Dexter Fowler, Andruw Jones, Rick Ankiel, Brett Gardner

Andruw Jones was at least productive in 2009.  He has a chance to get even more ABs in 2010, and could improve more.  Gerardo Parra will have to play well to receive playing time in what could become a crowded Arizona outfield, but he has upside.  Scott Podsednik still has a little juice left in his legs.  Just don’t forget that 2009 was his first season with over 215 ABs since 2006.  Chris Dickerson improved his BB/K rate in 2009, and could show more power in 2010.  He is a qualified post-hype sleeper pick if he can manage to get the ABs.  Matt Diaz’ batting average against RHP will keep him from ever truly claiming a full-time gig.  Colby Rasmus has power, but his batting average is a concern, especially against lefties.  Dexter Fowler is a nice sleeper.  His numbers against righties are not great, but he smokes lefties, and will start from day one in 2010.

"Zorilla" can be useful.

Every season there are players that step forward to have huge years, seemingly out of nowhere.  When we form our game-plan in the pre-season, we have to decide whether or not we believe that they can produce similar results again.  Just ask those people who paid a ton in 2009 for Ryan Ludwick or Carlos Quentin how it feels to be wrong about their guys.  Last season was no different in this regard.  Plenty of players that were unowned at the end of most fantasy auctions or drafts turned out to be valuable fantasy commodities for those that who were quick and smart enough to grab them.  Enter, Ben Zobrist.  He had a great season.  With 27 HR, 17 SB, and 91 RBI while hitting a robust .297, he is sure to get a lot of attention in fantasy debates this spring.  When you factor in that he qualifies in the outfield, second base, and shortstop in some leagues (13 games), those are some numbers that believers will pay a lot for, or reach for in drafts.  So now there are two questions to answer: 1) How much do you believe Zobrist will repeat those numbers?  and 2) What are you willing to pay for him if you believe he will?

Minors

Zobrist spent parts of five seasons in the minor leagues.  He was by no means a big power hitter during those years, but at 6′-3″, it is not surprising that he has developed power.  Zobrist was also not a huge speed threat.  While his success rate in the minors was not terrible, he does not have blazing speed (58 SB, 20 CS).  Zobrist was, however,  a good OBP player.  In every season, at every level (barring a 14 AB stint in 2008) Zobrist had an OBP of .400 or greater, and a batting average of over .300 in all but one season.  Walking more that striking out, his plate discipline cannot be ignored.

2009

On and off of the big club for the last several seasons, Zobrist struggled early.  Batting average was an issue, though in 2008 he took a step forward.  Especially at the end of 2008, Zobrist show flashes of what he was able to do.  His batting average came up, his OBP rose, and his power showed up for the first time at the major league level (12 HR in 198 ABs).  Zobrist credits this marked improvement to help from swing mechanic, Jaime Cevallos, and hitting coach Dan Heefner.  They broke his swing down, and rebuilt it.  They convinced him that he did not have to sacrifice power for average, and the results are hard to argue with.

When the opportunity to play regularly early in 2009 thanks to an injury to Akinori Iwamura, Zobrist made the most of it.  After an April in which Zobrist hit 4 HR and kept his batting average over .280, he received almost twice as many ABs in May.  Zobrist responded by hitting .313 with an OBP of .439 for the month.  Once he started, Zobrist really did not stop.  From that point on, he did not have a month with an OBP under .382, and had two more months over .400.  Even when his average stumbled one month (August – .242), he maintained a .383 OBP.  This corresponds very well with what he showed he was capable of when in the minor leagues.  His splits against lefties and righties don’t raise any red flags, though he does appear to hit lefties better (.319 BA-LHP, .287 BA-RHP).  While his second half was not awful, his slugging percentage, speed, and RBI totals declined in the second half.  With 2009 being his first season to even approach 500 ABs, it is not hard to believe that he tired down the stretch (only 3 HR in Sept and Oct combined).

Warning Signs

Of course, there are a few issues that raise red flags about Ben Zobrist.  Firstly, he is old to just now be breaking into the major leagues as an everyday player.  He will be 29 in May of 2010.  Players that break in that late tend to peak and decline quicker than those who break-out during their early 20’s.  I am also wary of players who have had sudden improvements so high above their baseline production.  The fact that there were swing coaches involved makes me feel a little better about it, but it makes me wonder what happens if/when he finds himself in his first real slump.  Will he revert to his older tendencies?  The speed he displayed was just gravy for his fantasy owners.  Yet with a borderline success rate, those SBs could disappear very quickly.  He only stole 6 bases on 9 attempts in the second half last season.  Finally, there is one weird stat out there that I noticed.  His batting average was 60 points lower when he played second base (.261) as opposed to outfield (.321).  It is an odd stat, but one that is worth noting since he is slated to start at second base for the 2010 season.

Fantasy Implications

Ben Zobrist is going to go for a good amount of bid money or an early pick in the 2010 season (relative to his 2009 draft day ranking).  He is a very attractive target for 2B, and if your league only requires 10 games for qualification, then he is even more attractive at shortstop.  In 2009, he truly put forth a 5 category effort.  I can find very few flaws with his splits, and his power has been fairly consistent for over a season now.  Would I consider him a keeper that I want on my team for years and years?  Probably not.  However, if I can grab him at shortstop this year and it doesn’t break my bank, I’m in.  Even if he regresses a bit, he will still be among the highest producing players at a very thin position.  Of course, if this is just the beginning and he is actually still improving, then you will have a real gem on your hands.  The most likely reality is that he gives some of that advance in production back.  That doesn’t mean is isn’t a valuable guy.  It just means that he does not rank at the top of the fantasy shortstop rankings with Hanley Ramirez, Troy Tulowitzki, Jimmy Rollins, Jose Reyes and Derek Jeter.  Though he could easily find a home just below that group if he can just maintin 90% of the numbers he put up in 2009.  If your league shows any hesitation about this guy, my advice is to take the gamble and jump.  My projections for him: 25 HR, 90 RBI, 85 R, 9 SB, .282 BA.

————-

Catchers

————-

First Tier:  Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez, Brian McCann

Most people are going to look at this first tier and wonder why Joe Mauer is not all by himself.  The reason that he isn’t is that his exceptional 2009 was only the first time he has given fantasy owners the power that they have been waiting on for years.  I have said it before, and I am sure I will say it again (even during this article): Predictability is one of the chief factors to use when picking players to target in your fantasy draft or auction.  To be placed in a top tier by oneself, not only does the player have to have excellence in production, but a relative certainty that this production will continue for at least another season.  No one is questioning Mauer’s batting average, but in 2009 he more than doubled his career high in HR, and broke 85 RBI for the first time in his career.  Without the track record for hitting over 20 home runs per season, I hesitate to recommend paying for Mauer as though he is the clear favorite at the position.  Victor Martinez also had an excellent season in 2009, and also has hit over 20 HR multiple times (as well as recorded over 85 RBI four times).  So you tell me…… are you SURE that Mauer is going to have a better 2010 season than Martinez?  I am not, so I cannot recommend that you pay significantly more for Mauer.

Finally, we come to Brian McCann.  Much like Mauer before 2009, McCann seems to still be developing.  While his power is consistent with about 20 or more HR in all but one season of his career, he does not put up the same uber-batting average Mauer does, nor the RBI total typical of Martinez.  It is actually pretty strange.  McCann’s production year-to-year remains almost identical to his first full season.  It is good fantasy production for a catcher, but it seems like he should be able to improve on these numbers as he matures and gains experience.

Second Tier:  Jorge Posada, Matt Wieters, Miguel Montero, Russell Martin

Everyone in this second tier has the ability to put up numbers worthy of the first tier.  However, there is a reason that each player has not been placed in that upper echelon.  What is it about Dodger catchers?  The last two full-time Dodger catchers both came out of the gate strong.  Remember Paul LoDuca’s rookie season?  It was a monster (25 HR, 90 RBI, .320 BA).  Then, a not-so-gradual fade away into fantasy obscurity.  Now it seems a similar (yet not as abrupt) fade is happening to Russell Martin.  His HR, RBI, SB, and BA have all dropped for two straight seasons after his excellent 2007.  Of course, it is completely possible that he can improve on his production, but the decline he has started keeps him out of the top tier, and should reduce his price at auction to match.  Jorge Posada is getting old.  There is no denying it, and keep in mind that he is THE MAN to any and all Yankee fans in the world.  Yet with a bad shoulder at 38 years old, it is only a matter of time before the decline in his fantasy production makes the price his name commands too high to pay.

Matt Wieters is surely the name that the “upside seekers” in your league are going to target.  His rookie year has to be seen as a success, and more is likely to come.  That is, unless his career path goes the same as Brian McCann, who as we covered, has not made much improvement in the fantasy categories since his first full season.  Personally, I would rather target Miguel Montero.  His name does not have as much hype surrounding it, and his upside is similar.  Chris Snyder was able to hold him off for a season or so, but once Montero was given a full-time role, the DBacks were not going to take it away.  With 16 home runs and a .294 batting average in his first full-time gig, his numbers could easily be better than Wieters in 2010.  At the time of this article, Bengie Molina had not yet signed with a team.  He is old, he is slow, but has shown good power over the seasons.  His 2008 season was his best season, putting up 95 RBI and a .295 batting average.  This was while he was batting cleanup for the Giants, a position in the batting order he is not likely to see again in his career.  In 2009 his power was at a career high, but his batting average dropped back closer to his career average.

Third Tier:  Bengie Molina, Ryan Doumit, A.J. Pierzynski, Mike Napoli, Geovany Soto, Chris Iannetta

I like a couple of the names in this tier, and if you can get them later or cheaper than the names above, they are completely worth the risk.  Ryan Doumit was among the higher-priced catchers in 2009 auctions.  Coming off of a relatively healthy 2008 in which he put up a .318 batting average, those that had seen the potential in his bat were expecting even more.  His 2009 season was not as healthy, yet his 10 HR in only 280 ABs was still worthy of note.  Since the power and ABs went down, you can expect his price to do the same.  Sit back, wait, and when others are pointing to the 10 HR as a reason to not pay the extra bid money, you can realize that his AB/HR ratio actually improved, and his BB/K ratio was almost identical to his 2008 season.  While his OBP dropped, the difference between his 2008 and 2009 BABIP can account for much of this (BABIP: 2008 – .338, 2009 – .271).  I like his upside and his expected 2010 price.  I also like A.J. Pierzynski.  While not the most spectacular option behind the dish, his predictable production makes up for his lack of upside.  We pretty much know what A.J. will do, and he will not hurt your team (or your bid money) by drafting him.  In his last 4 seasons he has only one with a batting average under .281, and he hit between 13 and 16 HR per season.  He does play in a very homer friendly ballpark, so a power spike is possible, but it is not needed to justify paying an extra dollar or two for his services.

On the surface, Mike Napoli looks like he should be in the second tier.  There is no questioning that the guy has power to spare.  With 20 HR for two straight seasons (both seasons with under 400 AB) there is upside here if he can ever have a truly full season.  So health is a primary concern.  Also, one has to look at the subtle decline in his secondary numbers from 2008 to 2009.  His SLG and OBP both dropped as well as his BB/K rate.  This all happened while his BABIP went UP slightly over that time.  He could be the best power hitting catcher in the league, or he could spend half the season on the D.L. and hit .250.  For the price he will command, I would rather pay less for more certain production.

Geovany Soto and Chris Iannetta both have a similar situation.  They both had great 2008 seasons, followed by a much worse 2009.  While Iannetta was touted coming into the bigs, his great season was preceded by struggle, and now after his struggles in 2009 he also has to contend with Miguel Olivo on the roster.  Olivo will eat into his playing time, and has the power to make that split damaging to Iannetta’s value.  Soto changed his approach at the plate in 2007 and his numbers exploded.  With the starting job wrapped up in 2008, the excellence continued.  However, in 2009 his numbers sank back closer to his previous levels, and his BA dropped all the way to .218.  A rebound to a middle-ground is likely, but don’t pay as though 2009 never happened.

Fourth Tier:  Kurt Suzuki, Yadier Molina, Kelly Shoppach, John Baker, Buster Posey, Ramon Hernandez, Ivan Rodriguez, Miguel Olivo

We are now into the group of catchers where they are either unproven or have limited upside.  Of this group, Miguel Olivo is the best power option, and that power could increase in Colorado, especially if he steals significant playing time from Iannetta.  His batting average may not be high enough to help your team, but if the Colorado effect can raise it up just a bit, he will be more than serviceable for your fantasy roster.  Another name that is sure to stand out on this list is Kurt Suzuki.  Having ranked 4th among catchers in RBI for 2009, there will be those that expect more to come.  I do not.  If you would like a detailed reason as to why, read about him in my Overrated Fantasy Hitters article.  I expected a bit of a resurgence from Ramon Hernandez in 2009, as he moved to the home run friendly ballpark in Cincinnati.  Obviously, I was wrong.  He was not playing all that well even before the injury which robbed him of most of the season.  He could still have an upswing, as his 2009 numbers were so bad it is easy to expect more.  However, at 34 years old, we have most likely seen his best.

Kelly Shoppach was trapped for years behind Victor Martinez.  Apparently the Indians did not think that he was a long term starter, as they let him go even after Martinez left town.  Now with a chance to play regularly, Shoppach will go from draft afterthought to overpriced, unproven commodity.  He has shown decent power in his history, but with a season high batting average of .261 (which dropped to .214 in 2009) his upside is limited.  Until he figures out how to hit right-handed pitching at a better rate, he is destined to lose playing time to another option.  John Baker was a popular sleeper in 2009.  Hitting .299 in 2008, fantasy GMs were expecting another step forward in 2009.  Well, he didn’t take a step forward, but he didn’t take much of a step back either.  His power was almost the same as in 2008, and his batting average (while down from 2008) was still at an acceptable level.  I don’t like drafting moderate power options in that ballpark, but at least Baker will not hurt you in the batting average category.  Yadier Molina is very similar to Baker.  Decent batting average, little power, low price.

Buster Posey is an upside pick, but that upside is limited to how soon the Giants let him catch for the big club.  He has power and can definitely hit for average.  If he can make the jump sooner rather than later, he should be able to help fantasy rosters.  Stash him away late if you have the roster space.

The Rest:  Rod Barajas, Carlos Ruiz, Gerald Laird, Rob Johnson, Carlos Santana, Greg Zaun, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Alex Avila, Jason Kendall, Jesus Flores, Nick Hundley

Once we get this far down the list at catcher, we are talking about spending just a dollar or two to get them.  With only upside to offer, there is little proven production that can be pointed to among this group.  Jesus Flores was supposed to be the starter in Washington before they signed Ivan Rodriguez.  He has shown that he can hit a little, and that his power is better than average for a catcher.  However, without a starting gig, how much he can help your team is in question.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia is also another player that was supposed to be a starter by now, but has stalled in his development.  He also has Taylor Teagarden competing for playing time, which further cuts into the likelihood that he will be a good option behind the plate.

Bottom line.  If you have gone so long without drafting a catcher that this is the list to chose from, keeping waiting and take a player with upside at another position if you can.