Carlos Quentin  (OF – CWS) –  The knock on Quentin for a long time has been the fact that he is injury prone.  After his breakout season in 2008, he showed why fantasy baseball owners hesitate to pay full price for that type of player.  Losing much of the 2009 season to wrist and heel injuries, Quentin saw his numbers drop.  However, if you are willing to gamble that he will stay healthy in 2010, his fantasy baseball value should make a large recovery.  His power remained intact, holding a 16.7 AB/HR rate in 2009.  This is only 3 ABs per home run fewer than in 2008.  Even going back to his minor league career, he has been a strong OBP player with an excellent K/BB ratio.  With the skills he brings to the table, it is only the chance of more injury that keeps his price low.  2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections:  .282 BA, 34 HR, 102 RBI, 100 R, 4 SBs, 505 ABs

Grady Sizemore  (OF – CLE) –  Grady Sizemore was my #1 ranked fantasy baseball outfielder going into the 2009 season.  That is not too hard to believe after he put up a 30-30 season in 2008.  However, the fact that the Indians are pathetic and injuries he suffered reduced that power/speed combo to a 18-13 line.  Now join me for this next part….. YIPEEEE!!!!  Grady Sizemore’s value as not been lower in years, and in all likelyhood will not be this low for years more to come.  In my keeper leagues, he has been untouchable…. until now.  When his names comes up in your fantasy baseball auction, call out, “multiple surgeries”, and then bid $1 more.  Is there risk the injury resurfaces?  Sure.  Is 30-30 upside worth that risk?  Yes, especially for those of you in fantasy baseball keeper leagues.  Sizemore is only 28 this year, and cannot be written off after one sub-par season.  2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections: .273 BA, 25 HR, 92 RBI, 90 R, 28 SB, 559 AB.

Troy Glaus  (3B/1B – ATL) –  Remember him?  I’m not sure if Glaus qualifies as a fantasy baseball sleeper since most everyone knows who he is.  However, he is definitely a candidate for a major rebound after only managing 29 ABs in the 2009 season.  Now make sure you read that correctly.  A rebound, not a rebirth.  You can expect that the power will return now that his shoulder is healthy.  You can also expect his batting average to still remain a liability to your team.   He is slated to be a starter, however, since his numbers were non-existant in 2009, he is just the type of player that you can slip by your competition very late or very cheap.  Even though he has been less of an asset than he was early in his career, his K/BB ratio is right where it has been for years.  Now a first baseman, the risk of injury is (slightly) lower, but keep in mind it is still there.  Do not pay as though he is going to hit the same 28 HRs he did in 2008, but don’t kid yourself.  If he is healthy, he has value.  2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections:  .252 BA, 22 HR, 88 RBI, 79 R, 3 SB, 485 AB.

Aramis Ramirez  (3B – CHC) –  Ranked near the top of third base cheat sheets for years, Aramis Ramirez was held to just 306 ABs in 2009, he should be cheaper than he has been since 2002.  Yet when you look at his numbers on a per at-bat basis, his home run rate and run production was right where it should be.  Top that off with his highest batting average since 2004, and you aren’t going to get much better numbers from a half-season.  The progress he has made in his K/BB ratio is noticeable, and his OBP has risen for three straight seasons.  Take the discount that will come this year and expect a return to his former level. 2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections:  .301 BA, 29 HR, 106 RBI, 99 R, 1 SB, 528 AB.

Jake Peavy  (SP – CWS) –  Jake Peavy has been ranked among the elite starting pitchers since his breakout season in 2004.  An ankle injury derailed his 2009 campaign.  Read that again…. “an ankle injury”.  This is not a case where surgery was done to fix an elbow or shoulder, which means that Peavy’s arm is just fine.  Perhaps you competition will only see the reduced innings in 2009 and not bother to check what Peavy was suffering from.  Pile on top of that the change from the National League to the American, and his change to a pitcher-friendly ballpark to one that favors hitters, and his price could drop even further.  If this proves to be the case during your draft, you will most likely be able to steal him for less or later than he has gone for years.  I would agree with critics that Peavy’s ERA will likely take a hit with the change of league and ballpark, however his BAA has remained consistently excellent throughout his career, and his WHIP hasn’t been above 1.23 since 2003, so the increase will likely be small.  Whatever value he loses due to the rise in ERA will likely be offset by the increased number of wins he will receive now that he is off of the lowly Padres.  2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections:  17 W, 3.25 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 185 K, 210 IN

Starting Pitchers

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Top Tier:  Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia, Johan Santana, Dan Haren, Zack Greinke, Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez

Tim Lincecum is just awesome.  He shows no signs of slowing down.  Roy Halladay had a strong case to win the A.L. Cy Young Award in 2009.  Other names come and go, Roy Halladay is still in the top tier.  CC Sabathia could win 15 games in his sleep on the mighty Yankees.  His ratios were still very good despite the home run bonanza at Yankee Stadium.  Johan Santana has been too good for too long to doubt.  I have no problems believing that he will have a very strong 2010.  Zach Greinke actually did win the A.L. Cy Young Award, and was excellent in 2009.  With his anxiety issues behind him, and 4 “plus” pitches, he could be atop this list for a long time.

Dan Haren’s numbers in 2009 were excellent even with a second half that was very pedestrian.  If he could just put it together for a full season, he could be the best pitcher in the game.  Justin Verlander finally had that complete breakout season.  Once the lid is off of the strikeout jar, I expect them to keep coming.  He got his ratios under control from a down 2008, putting up his third year out of four with an ERA under 4.0.  Felix Hernandez took a nice step forward in 2009.  He got his BB rate back down, and his HR rate dropped for the third straight season.  His BABIP in 2009 was a little low, so his ratios may uptick slightly.

Second Tier:  Adam Wainwright, Jon Lester, Cliff Lee, Josh Beckett, Chris Carpenter, Cole Hamels, Javier Vazquez, Matt Cain, John Lackey, Brandon Webb, Jake Peavy, Clayton Kershaw, Yovani Gallardo, Ubaldo Jimenez, Ted Lilly, Josh Johnson, Jair Jurrjens

These guys are still very good options, and many of them are capable of putting up first tier numbers.  Some had off years, some are one category short of being great, and some have yet to provide enough track record to justify paying top tier prices.  To all of you Adam Wainwright owners that don’t like seeing his name this low:  Chill.  If he does in 2010 what he did in 2009, he will be in the top tier.  Personally, I am not willing to pay what is going to be top dollar for a guy with such a short track record of first tier type success.  All of Jon Lester’s numbers are headed in the right direction for a breakout season.  With a rising K rate, a falling BB rate, and BAA that has dropped two straight years, this could be the last chance to get him without paying very top dollar (if it isn’t too late already).  Cliff Lee got shipped off to Seattle.  The ballpark there will help him, but the supporting cast and the change back to the American League will not.  Josh Beckett always seems to be in the second tier.  His stats tick up, and his stats tick down.  However, he just does not seem to be able to stay at the top of the fantasy baseball pitching rankings.

Chris Carpenter managed to stay healthy in 2009, and he was just as good as we remembered.  I kept waiting for the wheels to come off that bus, and it just kept rolling.  There is definitely still a little risk of injury with him, but he is good enough when healthy to lead your rotation.  Cole Hamels not only had an off-year, but his post-season comments are sure to cost him positions in 2010 snake drafts.  Grab him.  He is so good, and this is a buy low opportunity of which smart GMs will take advantage.  His BABIP was 55 points higher in 2009 than in 2008, and his BB/9 rate was unchanged.  I am skeptical that Javier Vazquez will have as much success in 2010 as he did in 2009.  The change back to the American League along with the move from a pitchers park to one that favors hitters could spell higher ratios.  Beware.  Matt Cain just keeps plugging along and getting better with age.  There are a couple of signs that his ratios will correct towards his career averages.  Firstly, his BABIP was .268 in 2009, that was well under his usual.  Also, he let up his highest HR rate of his career in 2009.  Although wins may continue to be a problem on the lowly Giants, he remains a quality investment.    John Lackey continues to be a good option, however two straight seasons pitching under 200 innings are a warning sign not to chase him too far.

The next two pitchers have been staples in the top tier in recent years.  Brandon Webb has perhaps the best sinker in the game.  He had shoulder problems that cost him all of 2009, and is a high risk/reward play in 2010.  Watch him in the spring and adjust your price on his health.  Jake Peavy is not only coming back from injury, but now moves to the American League and a hitter’s park.  That did not seem to slow him down at all at the end of 2009.  Unlike Javier Vazquez (who has a mixed track record of success and failure), Peavy has given us no reason to believe that the change in scenery will result in any difference in his stats except more wins.  Ted Lilly had a great season interrupted by injury in 2009, but should remain a low-profile source of wins and good ratios.

The next five starters are youngsters with great promise.  Clayton Kershaw made Dodger fans drool at what he did in a short 2009.  As a fantasy GM, contain that drool until you see his price.  His K/9 rate stood at 9.74, his BAA was .198, and he only gave up 119 hits in 171.0 IN.  If he can just get control of that high walk rate, this kid could be something to watch.  The fact that many youngsters never really overcome that problem is why you need to contain that drool.  Like Kershaw, Yovani Gallardo is some control away from being included in the next generation of elite pitchers.  With a K/9 rate in 2009 that was even better than Kershaw, he too has dominant stuff, holding batters to a .223 average in 2009.

Ubaldo Jimenez took another big step forward last year, improving on both his K/9 and BB/9 rates.  Despite pitching in Colorado, his ability to get ground-ball outs have kept home runs from being an issue.  Of the group, Josh Johnson has the best control. His allowed the fewest walks of the group in 2009, and his K rate was only a bit lower than Kershaw and Gallardo.  In that ballpark, he could even improve on these numbers.  Jair Jurrjens is only 24 years old this season.  He built a second excellent campaign on top of a great rookie season.  Across the board, his numbers improved.  The potential is there to increase the strikeouts as he gets stronger.

Third Tier:  James Shields, A.J. Burnett, Jered Weaver, Matt Garza, Scott Baker, Chad Billingsley, Scott Kazmir, Tommy Hanson, Roy Oswalt, Carlos Zambrano, Ricky Nolasco, J.A. Happ, Francisco Liriano, Max Scherzer, Ryan Dempster, John Danks, Rich Harden, Andy Pettitte, Derek Lowe, Neftali Feliz, Clay Buchholz, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Brett Anderson,

James Shields was quite the disappointment in 2009.  He let up a career high in home runs, let up 20 more hits than innings pitched, and his walk rate was the worst since his first season in the show.  Perhaps he should go back to working mostly fastball/chageup and less of the curveball.  He has good odds for a rebound but don’t overlook his struggles.  A.J. Burnett’s ratios (as expected) were not excellent, but thats what happens when you let up 21 home runs and walk 97 batters. He did pitch over 200 innings in back to back seasons for the first time.  He also came through with the strikeouts, but only 13 wins was disappointing.  This is what Burnett is, and there is no reason to expect drastic improvement (except for wins, since the Yankees are a scoring machine).

Scott Baker showed flashes of brilliance in 2009.  Since he has excellent control (as shown by just issuing 48 walks in over 200 innings during 2009), his WHIP is above average.  After the All-Star Break he went 8-2 with a 3.28 ERA.  If you are looking for a mild sleeper that could outperform his price greatly, this is where you should look.  Chad Billingsley was cruising right along through the first half of 2009 putting up numbers right in line with the stats that made GMs pay large amounts in auctions.  The second half of the season, those stats took a sharp turn downward.  His owners were looking for fewer walks, but Billingsley’s BB/9 rate remained unchanged.  While his ERA went up close to a run, his BAA actually went down 10 points.  Take the discount and run.

Whichever GM in your league goes for the “next big thing” every season will go after Tommy Hanson this year.  I personally would rather go for one of the above options that are more proven.  Hanson may be good, but 124 innings is not enough of a sample size for me to pay what my competition will.  It seems everywhere I look, Ricky Nolasco is ranked absurdly high.  He definitely has huge upside, and in 2009 his K/9 rate went up significantly.  It is the 23 home runs that worry me.  His control is above average for a pitcher his age, so if he can keep the ball in the yard, he can quickly improve on that 5.06 ERA he posted in 2009.  If that ERA scares away other owners and the price remains reasonable, grab him.  If it enters 2nd tier prices, let him go.  Supposedly, Francisco Liriano is pitching very well with good velocity in winter ball.  With the amount of time that has gone by since he has been good, and the numbers he has put up since, Liriano will be cheaper than ever.  If he is healthy this spring, he will be an excellent gamble.

J.A. Happ made a strong case for National League Rookie of the Year.  I am not as impressed as a fantasy GM.  He is a fly-ball pitcher in a hitter’s ballpark.  His K/9 rate was only 6.45 in 2009, and his LOB% was very high.  While Happ will be a name everyone knows in your league, he is not one that will be worth the gamble.  As you have read, I usually downgrade a pitcher for moving from the National League to the American League.  The one case this season where that is not true is in the case of Max Scherzer.  The ballpark in Detroit is more friendly to pitchers, and the Tigers will win more games than the Diamondbacks.  Scherzer has good stuff, a nice K rate, and could take a nice step forward on a team that is actually competitive.  After a strong 2008, most of Ryan Dempster’s numbers ticked down towards his career averages in 2009.  It looks like his new improved control is for real, but he will never be a great pitcher for WHIP purposes.  It is the same old story for Rich Harden.  If he is healthy, he could be one of the top pitchers in the game.  Now he also has to pitch half his games in a hitter’s ballpark.

Clay Buchholz has four good pitches and could emerge this season as a good fantasy asset.  It is true that Boston is a tough place to break into the big leagues and find immediate success, but if he does it will be huge for fantasy purposes.  He reminds me a bit of Zack Greinke.  Neftali Feliz has my Ranger-fan-friend very excited.  He has the K-rate, but needs some more control.  There is upside here, fantasy baseball sleeper alert!!  It now appears that Daisuke Matsuzaka was injured for pretty much all of 2009.  It sounds a little bit like an excuse (since this news just was revealed recently), but a rebound is possible.  I would not pay as though it were certain, though.  Brett Anderson appears to have both the K-rate and the control to be a very good fantasy asset.  Could be a late sleeper, but a short track record makes him a less than certain bet.

Fourth Tier:  Scott Feldman, Joe Blanton, Randy Wolf, Mark Buehrle, Tim Hudson, Jonathan Sanchez, Aaron Harang, Kevin Millwood, Gavin Floyd, Dave Bush, Joe Saunders, Kevin Slowey, Erik Bedard, Hiroki Kuroda, Wandy Rodriguez, Rick Porcello, Edwin Jackson, Joba Chamberlain, Ben Sheets, Stephen Strasburg, Randy Wells, Joel Pineiro, Johnny Cueto, Brad Penny, Barry Zito, Ervin Santana, Aroldis Chapman, John Maine

Scott Feldman was surprisingly effective in 2009.  His 17 wins could draw some attention, but his ratios and mediocre strikeout rate could keep him of the radar.  If you throw out the 6 innings he pitched as a reliever (and gave up 9 runs) his numbers for the season get even more impressive.  He also faded down the stretch, posting his worst ERA in September.  I am just not a Joe Blanton fan.  He has not let up fewer hits than innings pitched since 2005, and he let up a career high HR/9 rate in 2009.  His LOB% was also a career high, indicating that more of his base runners will score in 2010.  Randy Wolf had an amazing season in 2009.  Treat it like what it is, a very nice, outlier of a season that fantasy GMs will overpay for.  Mark Buehrle threw a perfect game in 2009, and that will only add to how overrated he is in a fantasy sense.  He has not let up fewer hits than innings pitched since 2002.  I like that Ben Sheets has wound up in Oakland.  The ballpark is excellent for pitchers, and the low-pressure and expectations for the A’s will work in his favor.  He swears he is healthy, but all fantasy baseball GMs should know that it is still a risk.

Jonathan Sanchez has the Ks, but his control is still a long way from being a fantasy asset (2009- 163.3 IN, 88 BB).  Once he gets that control, look out.  Dave Bush’s season would not have been so bad if not for a come-backer that tore his bicep.  He never got back on track after that.  A late flier at best.  Ben Sheets is still a free agent at the time of this posting.  Even if he signs with a good team, his injury history make him a gamble.  Rick Porcello has some serious upside.  He is only 22 years old and is already finding success to the tune of 14 wins.  A little more control and a little more strength that comes with age, and he could be a gem.  If you haven’t been paying attention, you may have missed Hiroki Kuroda’s nice 2009 season.  He has yet to throw 200 innings in a season, but his numbers show that he has the ability to be effective when healthy.

Stephen Strasburg is supposedly a phenom, but it remains to be seen how much he will pitch in 2010.  He will most likely be overpriced.  Joba Chamberlain’s numbers are all moving in the wrong direction.  A Yankee pitcher over-hyped?  Wow.  Johnny Cueto did not really make much progress in 2009.  In fact his K/9 rate got worse.  Dusty Baker doesn’t care though, because he has a new young arm to abuse. Aroldis Chapman made a bad decision to sign with the Reds.  He will get his chance to shine this season, and if he is good Dusty will wear that arm out.  Recent reports have John Maine healthy again.  He was seen as a high upside pitcher after a good 2007, and will be a late sleeper for 2010.

Fifth Tier: Clayton Richard, Justin Masterson, Chris Volstad, David Price, Nick Blackburn, Luke Hochevar, Brian Matusz, Marc Rzepczynski, Jorge de la Rosa, Gil Meche, Jeff Niemann, Bronson Arroyo, Chris Young, Kevin Correia, Ricky Romero, Jason Hammel, Kenshin Kawakami, Kyle Lohse, Mike Pelfrey, Paul Maholm, Matt Latos, Shaun Marcum, Zach Duke, Bud Norris, Felipe Paulino, Garrett Mock, Trevor Cahill, Wade Davis, Brandon Marrow, Brett Cecil, David Huff, Gio Gonzalez, John Lannan, Jeremy Guthrie, Jon Garland, Koji Uehara, Manny Parra, Robinson Tejada, Ross Ohlendorf, Ryan Rowland-Smith, Carl Pavano, Scott Richmond, Sean West

Once you get this low, the upside starts getting thin.  After all, we are talking about a lot of 4th and 5th starters here (many on bad teams).  It may be time to think about grabbing a reliever that can help you in the ratios instead of taking on the risk a bad starter represents.  Brian Matusz has showed some upside in 8 starts in 2009, but is so young he should only be taken as a late flier.  Marc Rzepczynski only had a 61 inning sample size in the show last year, but his minor league track record make him a nice sleeper.  If he looks like he has earned a roster spot in the late spring, don’t hesitate to push him up your draft board a little.  Jeff Niemann also looked good in his rookie season.  His K rate leaves something to be desired, but he has upside.  Kenshin Kawakami may or may not have a rotation spot in 2010.  If he does he showed enough to make him worth drafting late.

Hamels was expensive in 2009 drafts. But what about 2010?

At 736 innings pitched, Cole Hamels is a veteran.  This means that he, barring injury, can be reasonably predictable.  Over the course of his career, Hamels has shown he can be expected to hover near a K/BB ratio of 4:1.  His ERA is middle of the pack, and his WHIP (while consistently above average), can be gotten for far fewer dollars than you’d have to pay to get Hamels.  He has never won more than 15 games.  There are several positive aspects to Cole; he’s 26 years old and he plays for a winner.  He has managed to succeed in the post season, and in a notorious hitters haven.  We’ve heard the hype, seen the flashes of brilliance.  The question going forward– is he a top 10 pitcher worth spending big draft money on, or is he a guy you pass on to land a more reasonably priced player that will net you the same gains?

Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum, Johan Santana, Dan Haren, CC Sabathia, Justin Verlander, Jake Peavy, Josh Beckett, Zack Greinke, Josh Johnson, Roy Oswalt, Javier Vazquez, Cliff Lee — these are all guys I would rather spend my pitching money on if I was going to pay for a top 10 arm.  Hamels is on the cusp of this list for sure, but when I can slot more money for a power bat with the consistency of a Ryan Howard, why would I pay top 10 dollars for a pitcher who doesn’t crack the top 10?

Another question to consider when thinking about Hamels is roster space and relative value.  To be competitive, every team really needs that one anchor, ace of their staff.  In a league with 12-15 teams, he qualifies as that type of pitcher.  Pitching is that thin– especially with the decline of guys like Brandon Webb- but with the emergence of pitchers like Adam Wainwright and Yovani Gallardo (and a guy named Felix too), Hamels has his work cut out for him to earn his money and status from fantasy owners.

It’s really a tough call on a player like Hamels.  His age works in his favor in terms of a resurgence to his World Series MVP persona.  His K/BB rate indicates that despite his poor year, he still managed to keep guys off the bases and got the K when he needed it.  Then, there is the fact that he gave up more hits than innings pitched for the first time in his career.  His 162 game average of 199 hits to 216 innings pitched says that 2009 might have been a fluke year for the maybe ace.  The only real difference between his stellar campaign and his awful one is the number of hits allowed that translated into runs.  How many of those hits fell into play on a chance?

Then there is the final weight– can I get a pitcher who will outperform  Cole Hamels on the cheap?  Scott Baker could have been had for 5 bucks in an auction and would have gone off the board at somewhere in the 10th round in drafts.  He won 5 more games, had a slightly better ERA even after having as disastrous if not worse start to the year as Hamels.  He only had 6 less K’s than Hamels and despite the 3:1 K./BB ratio, he made up for that shortcoming in wins.

Do you skip the maybe player and go for the cheaper, similar pitcher without the top ten reputation?  Or, do you secure what you believe an be an anchor and build around that belief?  There are arguments that can be made for both sides.  With a now veteran Hamels, you can reasonably say that he is on the cusp of being a tier 1 pitcher.  With guys like Baker and even guys like Chad Billingsley, you can’t really be sure that you will get that bang for your buck.

Justin Verlander, in his 2008 campaign lost a league-leading, humiliating 17 games.  He had just come off of winning 35 games in the previous 2 seasons and seeing a K rate go up and up.  He was becoming a true horse.  Then came the 4.84 ERA, the 1.4+ WHIP and so forth.  What happened in 2009?  He reverted back to his winning ways.  Not only that, he surpassed his winning ways and is a CY Young candidate again.

Cole Hamels can experience the same exact revitalization.  He is a young veteran with a tremendous talent that can still elevate his game.  OR, Cole Hamels can fade into misery and prove that those arm problems of his past have taken their toll.  The choice is yours.

Can he match 2009 in 2010?

In the last off-season, Javier Vazquez went to the Atlanta Braves.  At the time, I was optimistic that the move would be good for the hurler.  Not only did I think it would be good for him, but I thought it would be good for me since after several mediocre seasons his price would be depressed.  Unfortunately, many people had the exact same thought as I did, and they paid more in our drafts.  One can hardly blame them, since he was going from the American League to the National League, and he was going to a pitcher’s park to boot.  Those of us who believed in Vazquez thought that he would put up numbers that were closer to his old Expos days than the recent results we had witnessed.  The numbers he wound up posting, however, were far beyond the resurgence that I saw coming.  They were huge.  They were awesome.  They were worth much more than the bid money than I was willing to pay (my apologies to Fanball.com for ripping their ranking of Vazquez in their magazine last year).  So will he put up great fantasy numbers again in 2010?  That is the question.

Early Career

While Vazquez played in Montreal, we got the occasional taste of what he could do.  In 2001 and 2003 in particular, Vazquez put up numbers which lead us to believe there was more coming (2001- 3.43 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 208 K:  2003- 3.23 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 241 K).  In those two years, even his secondary numbers were excellent.  In both of those two seasons his BAA was under .240.  In both of those two seasons he let up far fewer hits and innings pitched, and in both those two seasons overall, he recorded almost a strikeout per inning pitched.  Of course, the fact that he played for such a pathetically inept organization made the smart fantasy GM ask, “I wonder what he could do if he played for a good team.”  So when the Yankees got him in 2004, those same smart GMs started drooling at the possibilities.  Of course, when he pitched his lowest inning total since 1999 with the highest BB/IN ratio since his rookie season, expectations were tempered.

New York had enough of him after a season, and after a similarly disappointing season in Arizona, he wound up pitching for the White Sox from the 2006-2008 seasons.  The sole bright spot of those three years was 2007, when he was able to keep his WHIP at 1.14 (his lowest since leaving Montreal).  Likewise, his K rate went back up, and it was his only year in Chicago during which he let up fewer hits than innings pitched.  One factor that also needs to be noted is that this 2007 season his BABIP was at .297.  In the year before and the year after (when his numbers were noticeably worse) his BABIP was over .320.  So some back luck may have been involved in some of those inflated numbers.

A quick summary of his career numbers prior to 2009.  He pitched a total of 9 seasons.  He had an ERA under 4.00 in four of those seasons.  He had a WHIP under 1.25 in 3 of those seasons.  His highest wins totals came in 2001 and 2007 when he had 16 and 15 wins, respectively.  He had two seasons of those nine with a K/9 ratio under 8.0.

So overall, before his stud-like season in 2009, Javier Vazquez had been pretty much a tease.  He showed what he could do, but you never knew going into the season what he would do.

2009

The change of teams was huge for the fantasy value of Vazquez.  He went from the better-hitting league to the lesser-hitting league.  He also went from a home run park much more suited to pitching.  So while his past numbers made his fantasy numbers a gamble, it was one that was worth taking at the right price.  The results were amazing.  Vazquez went on to have a year that was worthy of consideration for the Cy Young award (had there not been a “Freak” in San Francisco that can’t be denied).  In no month during the season did he have an ERA over 4.00.  In no month did he let up more hits than innings pitched.  His K rate was steady around or over 1 K/IN.  The splits between his first and second halves of the season had no significant differences.  He held right-handed batters to a .212 BA.  Against lefties his BAA was only .235.  It was just a huge, solid, studly year for the starter.  Those fantasy baseball GMs that took the gamble won in the biggest way possible (and I won a dollar from my buddy Mike W for betting Vazquez would beat John Danks in 3 out of the 4 scoring categories.  Thanks, Mike).  However, when you look closer at the numbers, this season looks more and more like an outlier.  An outlier that is going to cost fantasy baseball GMs thousands of bid dollars and high draft picks around the country.

Warning Signs

In my mind there are huge, loud, blaring, alarms going off.  There are two reasons why.  The first reason has to do with the secondary numbers Vazquez had during 2009.  While Vazquez had played peek-a-boo with fantasy studliness for years, these numbers were beyond what he had shown.  The spike in his numbers is incredible.  Check out these Vazquez stats from 2009:

K/9 – 9.77 – Career High

BB/9 – 1.81 – 2nd Best of Career

K/BB – 5.41 Career Best

HR/9 – 0.82 – Career Best

BAA – .226 – Career Best

WHIP – 1.03 – Career Best

BABIP – .297 – Nothing to note here except that it is right about in the middle of his career norms.  Meaning, this was not an explanation of why his numbers were so much better.

Top off all of these stats with batted balls stats that are also outliers.  His groundball/flyball ration went from 0.92 to 1.20.  His fly ball rate alone dropped by 7%.  Now, there could be a partial explanation if perhaps a coach or fellow pitcher taught him something (maybe ground-ball specialist, Derek Lowe gave him a tip?).  The reason I feel that this is possible is that his pitch selection changed in 2009.  Apparently, he threw his fastball less than in any other year of his career (49.9% of the time), and threw his curveball more than any recent season (16.7%).  If something so fundamental has changed, then perhaps he can hold on to a significant portion of this gain he has made.  However, with numbers that are SOOOO different from his career norms, a good amount of recession should be expected (My thanks to fangraphs.com for many of the stats used in this section.  They are an excellent resource for us fantasy people.  Check them out.)

The second reason to be worried about paying the 2010 price for Vazquez is that pitchers who have outlier seasons tend not to repeat those numbers.  In the seasons of 2003-2008, there have been 26 cases where a starter has pitched a complete season with an ERA of 3.00 or lower (min 180 IN.  Each season the same pitcher has the requisite ERA is counted as a separate case).  If you look at those seasons and compare the pitcher’s ERA from that season to the next, you will find that in only 5 of those 26 cases did the starting pitcher repeat the 3.00 or lower ERA the following season.  In the five cases where a pitcher was able to repeat, Johan Santana accounted for two of them, Roy Oswalt for one, Tim Lincecum for one, and Roy Halladay for the remaining one.  Those are some stud names, huh?  So there are 21 cases left.  Remove from that number the 2 additional seasons where Santana had an ERA of 3 or less but did not repeat it the next season, the one time Oswalt did not repeat, and you are down to 18 cases.  That is 18 seasons from 17 different starters where they could not follow up a 3.00 ERA with the same in the following season.  Andy Pettitte, Dontrelle Willis, Carl Pavano, Ben Sheets, Mark Prior, and Carlos Zambrano are names that have been able to put up one season with a sub-3 ERA, but not repeat.  Looking back at those names, how many GMs do you think paid up the wazoo for those guys expecting more of the same?  I sure know the Yankees bit on Pavano.  Did you?  On Prior?  Sheets?

The reality is that every year there are starters that have huge ratio variance, and cannot continue the trend.  In 2008-9 it was Ryan Dempster.  The year before it was Jake Peavy.  This year it looks to be Javier Vazquez.  Bottom line is that starters who have a huge year out of nowhere can, in general, be expected to regress back towards their career averages.  If you want to pay big bucks or high draft picks for pitchers that are going to help your ratios, stick with the big guns that have been able to repeat the feat.

Fantasy Implications

The news is still good for Javier Vazquez.  I expect him to have another good season, but not nearly as good as his 2009.  He certainly stays healthy, and even his so-s0 years can help a fantasy team.  However, for fantasy baseball GMs that are planning on drafting Vazquez, I issue this word of warning.  His price is going to be sky high.  The odds of him putting up the same season he did in 2009 are remote.  Even if he manages to put up another above average season, the price you must pay in an auction (or the high pick you must use) are not going to be commensurate to the production you can expect.  This game of fantasy baseball is one in which predictability is the most important factor.  Knowing which players cannot repeat studly numbers can save you a season’s worth of frustration.  So do not draft Vazquez as if he can anchor your rotation.  He cannot.  He would be a good 2nd starter, and a fantastic 3rd starter, but if you are counting on taking him as your best starter you could be in trouble.  This profile was written before Vazquez was traded to the Yankees.  While my analysis of his past is unaffected, I am not as optimistc that he will be able to maintain anywhere close to last season’s ratios.  He will win more games, but in that ballpark and in the better hitting league, he may get roughed up often.  My projections have been adjusted accordingly. My projections for Javier Vazquez in 2010: 16 W, 3.88 ERA, 1.28WHIP, 191 K, 203 IN