Mark DeRosa  (3B/OF – SF) –  Mark DeRosa is still dealing with some soreness in his wrist.  He had surgery on it in the off-season and it has still not fully recovered.  This is very bad news for his fantasy value, which had already taken a big hit for two reasons.  Firstly, in 2009 his OBP dropped 60 points from his previous two seasons.  His strikeout rate took a huge jump, and he only gained 2 home runs from his 2008 total.  Secondly, he moved to the pitcher-friendly AT&T park (so him matching his 23 HR total from 2009 is far from likely).  He wasn’t a great pick before the news that his wrist is not healed.  Now, he is a terrible pick.

Nick Johnson  (1B – NYY) –  For those of you timing how long it would take for Nick Johnson to get dinged up, you may stop your stopwatches.  He has a sore back.  Normally, I would not even report something so innocuous as a sore back in spring training.  However, in the case of Nick “Fragile” Johnson, it is just an indication that it is the same old story with the breakable on-base machine.  Draft him hoping for 350 ABs, not 500.

Fernando Rodney  (RP – LAA) –  It looks as though Fernando Rodney will begin throwing soon.  One can assume that Brian Fuentes is now nervous.  Although Rodney had a 4.40 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP, he blew only one save in 2009.  Fuentes’ ratios were not much better in 2009, and he blew more saves.  If Rodney is significantly behind in his spring training, the result could be a longer leash for Fuentes.  However, I am guessing that leash runs out early this year.

Allen Craig  (1B/3B/OF – STL) -  This is a very interesting situation that I will track this spring.  By no means is Craig assured a roster spot this season.  It reminds me of back in the day when Tony LaRussa swore up and down that Albert Pujols was not going to break camp with the team.  Obviously he did and hasn’t looked back.  With the injury issues to Brendan Ryan, and presence of only stopgap options behind him, Craig could get a look if he performs well this spring.  Craig has played first base, third base, and the outfield.  With such versatility, it would not surprise me at all if he found a roster spot.  He was the organization’s player of the year in 2009, putting up stats that Brendan Ryan can only dream of.  He is also currently dealing with a minor quad injury, but is due to be back soon.  Track this closely, there is some sleeper potential here.

Joel Piniero  (SP – LAA) –  Not only do I not believe that Piniero is a fantasy asset, I think that he is very likely to waste a large amount of your bid money if you buy him in your 2010 fantasy baseball auction.  Sure, he threw a career high 214 innings, had a 3.77 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP.  However if you look a little closer, you will see that his secondary numbers paint a less optimistic picture of his “breakout” season.  His K/9 rate dropped to a career low 4.42.  While his BAA was not terrible at .265 (which is decent, not great) he still let up more hits than innings pitched.  If it were not for his career best BB/9 rate (which was WAY beyond his career norms, about half what it had been the previous two seasons), his WHIP could have done some damage to fantasy teams.  So sure, if he can hold that walk rate down, his ratios may not be terrible.  However, paying for a pitcher that is moving from the National to the American League after a career season is exactly the way that a fantasy GM can get burned and waste either bid money or a too high a pick in a fantasy baseball draft.  Oh yeah, he struggled his first start this spring.

Jason Heyward  (OF – ATL) –  Heyward is impressing early this spring with his plate discipline and defense.  Matt Diaz is still a threat to a full season worth of ABs, but the ceiling is just so much higher for the younger Heyward.  He is very young, and could struggle at times, however he is a real talent that you should track closely this spring.  If he breaks camp with a starting job, he could be a nice fantasy baseball sleeper for 2010.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia  (C – TEX) –  There is an open competition going on for the starting catcher role on the Rangers.  Salty and Taylor Teagarden are neck and neck.  While this competition would ideally result in finding which one should start this season, more likely it will result in finding which one will get the greater end of a platoon.  Salty did manager to have a good game Thursday, going 2-3 with a 3-run bomb.  However, that is not going to seal the deal.  An maintained offensive explosion from one of them could tip the balance.  If you have to chose between one or the other, go with Salty until you have Teagarden does something special.

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Catchers

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First Tier:  Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez, Brian McCann

Most people are going to look at this first tier and wonder why Joe Mauer is not all by himself.  The reason that he isn’t is that his exceptional 2009 was only the first time he has given fantasy owners the power that they have been waiting on for years.  I have said it before, and I am sure I will say it again (even during this article): Predictability is one of the chief factors to use when picking players to target in your fantasy draft or auction.  To be placed in a top tier by oneself, not only does the player have to have excellence in production, but a relative certainty that this production will continue for at least another season.  No one is questioning Mauer’s batting average, but in 2009 he more than doubled his career high in HR, and broke 85 RBI for the first time in his career.  Without the track record for hitting over 20 home runs per season, I hesitate to recommend paying for Mauer as though he is the clear favorite at the position.  Victor Martinez also had an excellent season in 2009, and also has hit over 20 HR multiple times (as well as recorded over 85 RBI four times).  So you tell me…… are you SURE that Mauer is going to have a better 2010 season than Martinez?  I am not, so I cannot recommend that you pay significantly more for Mauer.

Finally, we come to Brian McCann.  Much like Mauer before 2009, McCann seems to still be developing.  While his power is consistent with about 20 or more HR in all but one season of his career, he does not put up the same uber-batting average Mauer does, nor the RBI total typical of Martinez.  It is actually pretty strange.  McCann’s production year-to-year remains almost identical to his first full season.  It is good fantasy production for a catcher, but it seems like he should be able to improve on these numbers as he matures and gains experience.

Second Tier:  Jorge Posada, Matt Wieters, Miguel Montero, Russell Martin

Everyone in this second tier has the ability to put up numbers worthy of the first tier.  However, there is a reason that each player has not been placed in that upper echelon.  What is it about Dodger catchers?  The last two full-time Dodger catchers both came out of the gate strong.  Remember Paul LoDuca’s rookie season?  It was a monster (25 HR, 90 RBI, .320 BA).  Then, a not-so-gradual fade away into fantasy obscurity.  Now it seems a similar (yet not as abrupt) fade is happening to Russell Martin.  His HR, RBI, SB, and BA have all dropped for two straight seasons after his excellent 2007.  Of course, it is completely possible that he can improve on his production, but the decline he has started keeps him out of the top tier, and should reduce his price at auction to match.  Jorge Posada is getting old.  There is no denying it, and keep in mind that he is THE MAN to any and all Yankee fans in the world.  Yet with a bad shoulder at 38 years old, it is only a matter of time before the decline in his fantasy production makes the price his name commands too high to pay.

Matt Wieters is surely the name that the “upside seekers” in your league are going to target.  His rookie year has to be seen as a success, and more is likely to come.  That is, unless his career path goes the same as Brian McCann, who as we covered, has not made much improvement in the fantasy categories since his first full season.  Personally, I would rather target Miguel Montero.  His name does not have as much hype surrounding it, and his upside is similar.  Chris Snyder was able to hold him off for a season or so, but once Montero was given a full-time role, the DBacks were not going to take it away.  With 16 home runs and a .294 batting average in his first full-time gig, his numbers could easily be better than Wieters in 2010.  At the time of this article, Bengie Molina had not yet signed with a team.  He is old, he is slow, but has shown good power over the seasons.  His 2008 season was his best season, putting up 95 RBI and a .295 batting average.  This was while he was batting cleanup for the Giants, a position in the batting order he is not likely to see again in his career.  In 2009 his power was at a career high, but his batting average dropped back closer to his career average.

Third Tier:  Bengie Molina, Ryan Doumit, A.J. Pierzynski, Mike Napoli, Geovany Soto, Chris Iannetta

I like a couple of the names in this tier, and if you can get them later or cheaper than the names above, they are completely worth the risk.  Ryan Doumit was among the higher-priced catchers in 2009 auctions.  Coming off of a relatively healthy 2008 in which he put up a .318 batting average, those that had seen the potential in his bat were expecting even more.  His 2009 season was not as healthy, yet his 10 HR in only 280 ABs was still worthy of note.  Since the power and ABs went down, you can expect his price to do the same.  Sit back, wait, and when others are pointing to the 10 HR as a reason to not pay the extra bid money, you can realize that his AB/HR ratio actually improved, and his BB/K ratio was almost identical to his 2008 season.  While his OBP dropped, the difference between his 2008 and 2009 BABIP can account for much of this (BABIP: 2008 – .338, 2009 – .271).  I like his upside and his expected 2010 price.  I also like A.J. Pierzynski.  While not the most spectacular option behind the dish, his predictable production makes up for his lack of upside.  We pretty much know what A.J. will do, and he will not hurt your team (or your bid money) by drafting him.  In his last 4 seasons he has only one with a batting average under .281, and he hit between 13 and 16 HR per season.  He does play in a very homer friendly ballpark, so a power spike is possible, but it is not needed to justify paying an extra dollar or two for his services.

On the surface, Mike Napoli looks like he should be in the second tier.  There is no questioning that the guy has power to spare.  With 20 HR for two straight seasons (both seasons with under 400 AB) there is upside here if he can ever have a truly full season.  So health is a primary concern.  Also, one has to look at the subtle decline in his secondary numbers from 2008 to 2009.  His SLG and OBP both dropped as well as his BB/K rate.  This all happened while his BABIP went UP slightly over that time.  He could be the best power hitting catcher in the league, or he could spend half the season on the D.L. and hit .250.  For the price he will command, I would rather pay less for more certain production.

Geovany Soto and Chris Iannetta both have a similar situation.  They both had great 2008 seasons, followed by a much worse 2009.  While Iannetta was touted coming into the bigs, his great season was preceded by struggle, and now after his struggles in 2009 he also has to contend with Miguel Olivo on the roster.  Olivo will eat into his playing time, and has the power to make that split damaging to Iannetta’s value.  Soto changed his approach at the plate in 2007 and his numbers exploded.  With the starting job wrapped up in 2008, the excellence continued.  However, in 2009 his numbers sank back closer to his previous levels, and his BA dropped all the way to .218.  A rebound to a middle-ground is likely, but don’t pay as though 2009 never happened.

Fourth Tier:  Kurt Suzuki, Yadier Molina, Kelly Shoppach, John Baker, Buster Posey, Ramon Hernandez, Ivan Rodriguez, Miguel Olivo

We are now into the group of catchers where they are either unproven or have limited upside.  Of this group, Miguel Olivo is the best power option, and that power could increase in Colorado, especially if he steals significant playing time from Iannetta.  His batting average may not be high enough to help your team, but if the Colorado effect can raise it up just a bit, he will be more than serviceable for your fantasy roster.  Another name that is sure to stand out on this list is Kurt Suzuki.  Having ranked 4th among catchers in RBI for 2009, there will be those that expect more to come.  I do not.  If you would like a detailed reason as to why, read about him in my Overrated Fantasy Hitters article.  I expected a bit of a resurgence from Ramon Hernandez in 2009, as he moved to the home run friendly ballpark in Cincinnati.  Obviously, I was wrong.  He was not playing all that well even before the injury which robbed him of most of the season.  He could still have an upswing, as his 2009 numbers were so bad it is easy to expect more.  However, at 34 years old, we have most likely seen his best.

Kelly Shoppach was trapped for years behind Victor Martinez.  Apparently the Indians did not think that he was a long term starter, as they let him go even after Martinez left town.  Now with a chance to play regularly, Shoppach will go from draft afterthought to overpriced, unproven commodity.  He has shown decent power in his history, but with a season high batting average of .261 (which dropped to .214 in 2009) his upside is limited.  Until he figures out how to hit right-handed pitching at a better rate, he is destined to lose playing time to another option.  John Baker was a popular sleeper in 2009.  Hitting .299 in 2008, fantasy GMs were expecting another step forward in 2009.  Well, he didn’t take a step forward, but he didn’t take much of a step back either.  His power was almost the same as in 2008, and his batting average (while down from 2008) was still at an acceptable level.  I don’t like drafting moderate power options in that ballpark, but at least Baker will not hurt you in the batting average category.  Yadier Molina is very similar to Baker.  Decent batting average, little power, low price.

Buster Posey is an upside pick, but that upside is limited to how soon the Giants let him catch for the big club.  He has power and can definitely hit for average.  If he can make the jump sooner rather than later, he should be able to help fantasy rosters.  Stash him away late if you have the roster space.

The Rest:  Rod Barajas, Carlos Ruiz, Gerald Laird, Rob Johnson, Carlos Santana, Greg Zaun, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Alex Avila, Jason Kendall, Jesus Flores, Nick Hundley

Once we get this far down the list at catcher, we are talking about spending just a dollar or two to get them.  With only upside to offer, there is little proven production that can be pointed to among this group.  Jesus Flores was supposed to be the starter in Washington before they signed Ivan Rodriguez.  He has shown that he can hit a little, and that his power is better than average for a catcher.  However, without a starting gig, how much he can help your team is in question.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia is also another player that was supposed to be a starter by now, but has stalled in his development.  He also has Taylor Teagarden competing for playing time, which further cuts into the likelihood that he will be a good option behind the plate.

Bottom line.  If you have gone so long without drafting a catcher that this is the list to chose from, keeping waiting and take a player with upside at another position if you can.