Outfield

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Top Tier:  Ryan Braun, Carl Crawford, Matt Kemp, Jacoby Ellsbury, Matt Holliday, Justin Upton, Jason Bay

Some of the best power and speed mixes in fantasy baseball are in this tier.  Ryan Braun has hit non-stop since joining the major league club.  He hits for power, a high batting average, and even set a career high in stolen bases in 2009.  He is only 26 years old.  Carl Crawford proved that he wasn’t finished after a mediocre 2008, finishing 2009 with 60 SBs and his highest home run total since 2006.  He even got that batting average over .300 to prove himself once again a 5-category threat.  Matt Kemp has the potential to take over the number one slot if he improves again in 2010.  Showing the ability to produce in all five categories, he tops my list for likely members of the 30-30 club in 2010.  Jacoby Ellsbury is a stolen base machine, and he apparently knows it.  He likes to steal, and wants to set milestones.  Expect it to continue in 2010.

Now that Matt Holliday has had a productive season away from Colorado, his price will go back up in 2010.  His power could grow a bit more in 2010, and he even kept up the stolen bases in 2009.  More importantly he still hit over .300.  While not the most flashy pick, he is dependable.  Justin Upton has plenty of upside, but even if he can manage to reach last season’s totals, he is ready to lead your outfield corp.  One red light about Upton is that his BABIP was a little higher than usual in 2009.  Some people may balk at paying full price for Jason Bay in 2010 since he signed to play half his games at Citi-field.  Don’t be one of them.  All he has to do is increase his batting average in 2010 and he will be a bonafide leader of fantasy teams.  The Mets like to use speed on the bases, so even if Bay loses a little of his HR production, he will likely steal more bases.

Second Tier:  Grady Sizemore, Adam Dunn, Curtis Granderson, Manny Ramirez,  Shane Victorino, B.J. Upton, Bobby Abreu, Shin-Soo Choo, Nelson Cruz, Jayson Werth

Several of these players have been in the top tier before, and some may be there after 2010.  Grady Sizemore was a sure top 3 outfield pick in 2009 fantasy baseball drafts and auctions.  Injury ruined his season (along with many fantasy baseball teams).  The Indians are pathetic offensively (if not completely), so his runs and RBI totals may suffer.  However, his power and speed remain intact.  Adam Dunn put together his usual power-heavy season, but finally did so along with a batting average that was not a detriment to fantasy rosters.  It still wasn’t a good batting average, but it was better than usual.  I thought he was over priced before he raised that average in 2009.  In 2010 he will be even more expensive.  Curtis Granderson saw his value jump drastically in this off-season when he was traded from the Tigers to the Yankees.  It remains to be seen where he will hit in the batting order, but wherever it is, it will be better for his fantasy value than anyplace within the city limits of Detroit.  All he needs to do is raise that batting average against left-handed pitching (2009- .183) and he can join the elites in the outfield.  Manny Ramirez is, well, Manny.  I don’t think age is really a factor for him quite yet.  Expect another .300 average with 30ish home runs.  He is in a contract year, so perhaps he will take the game seriously in 2010 and uptick.

Nelson Cruz offered great power and even threw in 20 stolen bases for fantasy owners in 2009.  He figured out minor league pitching, but has needed some time to be effective on the big stage.  Now that he is here, he is not going back.  If he can just get that BB/K rate closer to what he did in 2008, he could be a star.  Note:  Cruz is 30 years old this year, so realize that before paying a premium in keeper-leagues.  Perhaps the most upside in this group is B.J. Upton.  We saw what he could do in his awesome first full season, but it seems he has taken a step back at the plate.  Believers in him took comfort in the fact that despite his drop in batting average and power from 2007 to 2008, his OBP remained almost identical.  In 2009, that OBP dropped by 70 points.  The drop in his 2009 walk rate is undeniable, and should the trend continue this season his supporters will start to fade.  This is the last season I would pay full price for him unless he takes a step forward.  Shin-Soo Choo went 20-20 in 2009.  He was one of only 7 OFs to accomplish that feat.  His production was more than solid, and in no month did he hit lower than he did in May (.274).  His splits against RHP and LHP are good, so it is not likely that he will lose his starting status to some sort of platoon.

Did Jayson Werth finally prove to all his doubters how good he is?  He stayed healthy all year, started all year, and wound up producing numbers that were worth of much more bid money than he went for in 2009 auctions.  Do not expect him to come so cheap this season.  A word of warning about Werth.  His breakout came late (he is 31 this year), so I would not count him among “core” team members that you want to build a keeper team around.  He’s good, but his shelf life is probably not going to be that long.

Third Tier:  Carlos Lee, Carlos Quentin, Nick Markakis, Andre Ethier, Adam Lind, Torii Hunter, Hunter Pence, Nyjer Morgan, Ben Zobrist, Michael Cuddyer, Michael Bourn, Nate McLouth, Adam Jones, Andrew McCutchen, Josh Hamilton, Brad Hawpe, Denard Span, Juan Pierre, Raul Ibanez, Nolan Reimold, Jermaine Dye, Jason Kubel, Ryan Ludwick

Carlos Lee may be boring, but he is money in the bank.  It appears that his power and speed peaked in 2006, but he is still good for solid production in 4 out of the 5 scoring categories.  Do not underestimate how valuable 20-something HRs is with 100 RBI and a .300 BA.  After all, only 13 outfielders hit .300 in 2009.  Of those 13, only 6 of them hit 20 or more HRs, and of those, only 4 also had 100 RBI.  There is value here.  I like Carlos Quentin to rebound in a big way in 2010. When looking at his injuries and numbers in 2009, that may scare away other GMs.  After all, he still has only one really successful season under his belt.  Realize, however, that his AB/HR ratio remained steady in 2009.  Coming into the season healthy should help him move back into the second tier for 2011.  Nick Markakis may be a little overrated.  He has never topped 23 HRs, both his BB rate and his OBP were the lowest of his career in 2009, and his steals total has dropped drastically since his breakout season in 2007.  Beware of spending too much on him.  There is one big difference between Nyjer Morgan and Michael Bourn.  That is:  Nyjer Morgan has a track record with a good batting average, and Bourn does not.  Like the old saying goes, you can’t steal first base.  Bourn’s increase in batting average for the 2009 season was a surprise.  Don’t be surprised if it sinks significantly lower in 2010.

Ben Zobrist is a nice player, but should be taken at one of the infield positions before his name comes up on the outfield depth chart.  Andre Ethier and Adam Lind are in a similar situation.  Both just had a breakout 2009 in which they hit over 30 HRs.  Lind’s breakout could be real if he sticks to what he did in 2009.  He improved his plate discipline in a big way.  His percentage of balls outside the strike zone swung at dropped significantly, and his walk rate increased as a result.  The Blue Jays appear to be in a rebuilding year, so beware that Lind may not have as much support around him in the lineup as you would like.  Andre Ethier got a shot to play every day in 2009 and made the most of it.  While his BB rate went up, so did his K rate.  His BABIP actually was lower in 2009 than 2008, so perhaps that batting average will rise a bit in 2010.  One potential stumbling block for Ethier is that he has trouble with left-handed pitching (BA vs. LHP: 2008- .243, 2009- .194).

Andrew McCutchen is one of those players that people are hoping to slip by as a sleeper, but there is just no way.  He is going to go for big bucks in auctions as GMs hope to grab the next big power/speed threat.  The fact that he is on the Pirates limits his production in runs and RBI.  If you want a lower-key potential breakout, look to Adam Jones.  He could be this season’s power/speed outfielder, and his numbers from 2009 are not as likely to draw the attention of your competition.  Nolan Reimold may break-out in a similar fashion in 2010.  He has a good BB/K rate, and does not swing at too many balls outside of the strike-zone.  He may even steals bases for you.  This spring, monitor the healthy of his recently operated-on Achilles tendon before you draft him.  Don’t go overboard, since he still has to prove he can hit at the major league level, but a modest bid could pay big dividends.

I am not a believer in Josh Hamilton.  When he was young, there was crazy hype surrounded by injuries and mysterious “personal problems”.  He finally dealt with his issues, and had one monster season.  Then, right back to the injuries with worse performance when he did play.  I don’t care about the night he spent in a bar, and do not think that he is much risk to fall into that lifestyle again.  I care about his ability to hit, which is far from proven.  He could have another good season, but some fantasy baseball magazines I have seen rank him as high as a top 10 outfielder.  The price he will bring for the risk he represents is too high.  Juan Pierre is a full-time player again, and his fantasy value will take a huge rebound.  After filling in very nicely for Manny Ramirez during his suspension, the White Sox are going to let him lead off in 2010.  He can still hit and steal bases, but will cost less than the last time he was a full time player.

Fourth Tier:  Chris Coghlan, Alfonso Soriano, Alex Rios, Marlon Byrd, Vernon Wells, Carlos Gonzalez, Jay Bruce, Johnny Damon, Franklin Gutierrez, Magglio Ordonez, Mike Cameron, Corey Hart, J.D. Drew, Garrett Jones, Julio Borbon, Jeff Francoeur, Carlos Gomez, Milton Bradley, Carlos Beltran, Coco Crisp, Chris Young, Josh Willingham, Kyle Blanks, Mark Teahen, Conor Jackson, Elijah Dukes, Mark DeRosa, Melky Cabrera, David Dejesus, Cody Ross, Rajai Davis, Lastings Milledge, Jose Guillen, Juan Rivera, Matt LaPorta

Chris Coghlan is a nice little player.  He will be overrated in 2010 fantasy baseball drafts, and overpriced too.  To read a complete analysis, read Coghlan’s Player Profile.  Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Beltran both appear to be in decline as well as significant injury risks.  Beltran now finds himself in trouble with the Mets due to a recent surgery which could jeopardize his status for opening day.  Do not pay for their names.  Alex Rios has the confidence of manager Ozzie Guillen.  He should play every day, and will likely rebound a good bit.  His reputation (both on and off the field) has taken a beating over the last year, so you may be able to steal him cheap.  Want a cheap option in the outfield that has both power and speed?  Look to Franklin Gutierrez.  He will fly under the radar at fantasy drafts and auctions, but has his playing time locked it, and can serve as an above average 3rd outfielder.  I am very skeptical of Marlon Byrd.  This guy has a fairly long track record, and 2009 was his first truly good season.  While his batting average has made progress over the last few seasons, the power came from nowhere and his BB rate was his lowest since 2002.

Julio Borbon is going to be one of the unproven players in 2010 auctions that goes for big money.  He may, however, be worth it.  He has been announced as a starter for 2010, and his speed and batting average appear to be for real.  He could even throw in above average power for a speedster in Arlington.  Speaking of potential that will cost you, Carlos Gonzalez put up enough of a stat-line that fantasy GMs are not going to look past him.  Highly touted, Gonzalez put up 13 HR and 16 SB in under 300 ABs.  I am hoping that Carlos Gomez will slip under the radar of my competition.  His batting average could be lower than I would like, but if his price matches, I like the upside he offers with a full-time job for the Brewers.  He is crazy fast, but keep your bidding low since his OBP has been under .300 for three straight seasons.  Kyle Blanks is another player who’s 2009 numbers are mediocre enough that he could slip under the radar.  The kid is huge, has huge power, and will start all season.  Sure, the ballpark and supporting cast hurt his numbers, but you aren’t drafting him to be your #1 outfielder.  As a #3 or 4 he should be above average.

Could this be the season that Jay Bruce finally establishes himself as a true fantasy asset?  Yes, I think so.  While the casual fantasy GM will look at the batting average drop he suffered in 2009, the secondary numbers paint a different picture.  His AB/HR ratio went up, his BB/K rate went up, and his BABIP for 2009 was absurdly low (.222).  If those GMs that loved him have soured on him due to his BA, grab him at a discount.  Power galore.  Conor Jackson had a very odd season in 2009.  He was suffering from valley fever, which is a disease caught from the spores of a desert fungi.  Wow.  He is tearing the cover off of the ball in the off-season, and should pick up where he left off in 2008, a potential breakout with a good BA.  He qualifies as a sleeper this year, since he is being ranked very low in many draft prep articles and fantasy baseball rankings.

Chris Young had a miserable 2009, and that continues a trend of bad news.  For two straight years his power has dropped.  For two straight years his batting average has dropped.  For two straight years, his stolen bases have dropped, his K rate has risen, and his OPS has dropped.  These are all very worrying signs.  Strangely, he did post his major league best BB rate in 2009 (though he didn’t use that to steal a single base after the All-Star Break).  He also picked up the pace in September and October, having his best month of the year.  If you can slip him by, he definitely still has good upside, but I would want him to fall into my lap rather than pay more than a couple dollars.

A similar disappointing season was turned in by Elijah Dukes.  This kid has all the talent in the world, but can’t seem to put it all together.  He is seeing fewer fastballs (49.1%-2009 vs. 56.9%-2008) and this helped him put up the worst K rate of his major league career (20.3%).  Another number of note for Dukes in 2009: 3 SB, 10 CS.  Rajai Davis is another player who’s numbers from 2009 will prevent him from having “sleeper” status in 2010 fantasy baseball auctions.  There is no such thing as a sleeper that put up 40+ stolen bases the season before.  I would like to see his K rate get a little better if he is to bat leadoff, but his minor league numbers support his 2009 batting average.

Fifth Tier: Delmon Young, Luke Scott, Aaron Rowand, Xavier Nady, Nick Swisher, Jack Cust, Gerardo Parra, Jake Fox, Garret Anderson, Randy Winn, Ryan Garko, Willy Taveras, Skip Schumaker, Scott Podsednik, Colby Rasmus, Ryan Church, Chris Dickerson, Kosuke Fukudome, Matt Diaz, Jonny Gomes, Carlos Guillen, Travis Snider, Dexter Fowler, Andruw Jones, Rick Ankiel, Brett Gardner

Andruw Jones was at least productive in 2009.  He has a chance to get even more ABs in 2010, and could improve more.  Gerardo Parra will have to play well to receive playing time in what could become a crowded Arizona outfield, but he has upside.  Scott Podsednik still has a little juice left in his legs.  Just don’t forget that 2009 was his first season with over 215 ABs since 2006.  Chris Dickerson improved his BB/K rate in 2009, and could show more power in 2010.  He is a qualified post-hype sleeper pick if he can manage to get the ABs.  Matt Diaz’ batting average against RHP will keep him from ever truly claiming a full-time gig.  Colby Rasmus has power, but his batting average is a concern, especially against lefties.  Dexter Fowler is a nice sleeper.  His numbers against righties are not great, but he smokes lefties, and will start from day one in 2010.

Rip Van Winkle would have been awesome at finding fantasy baseball sleepers

The “game” of putting together a fantasy champion involves smart projections, wise use of your money, and a little bit of luck (like avoiding this year’s Jose Reyes). Luck is mainly up to the baseball gods and we’ve been giving you fantasy baseball projections all off-season, so now it’s time to look at that “wise use of your money.” Each year, a group of players play well beyond what was expected of them and, looking back, owners are left saying, “If I had just spent that $1 on this player instead of wasting $15 on that one, my whole year would’ve been different.” Note that for the purposes of this article, if you’re in a league that uses a snake draft instead of an auction, then it’s not money we’re talking about, but bumping someone up a round or two so as not to lose them.

Let’s break down these players into one of three categories. Snoozers are players that some in your fantasy league will probably already be talking about as possible breakout players and (with a big Spring), may be overpriced by the time your draft rolls around. Sleepers are the true question marks. You may get these players for nothing, or a you may an owner or two in your league who have also been eyeing them all off-season. The Rip Van Winkles are players with credentials, but will need to get some breaks in order to really pay off. While you need to judge the depth of your league and where each of these types of players fit, the Rip Van Winkles are really for the leagues with more than 12 teams.

Snoozers

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Garrett Jones -PIT (1B/OF)- 2009 : 314 AB, 293 BA, 21 HR, 44 RBI, 45 R, 10 SB

Watching Garrett Jones play last summer, I was looking forward to keeping this hidden gem in my back pocket for the latter rounds of my draft.  But as he continued to pound the baseball, it became evident that he would slip from sleeper status to the hot new item.   Jones’ bat struck for 21 home runs in just 314 at-bats, a pace that seems unlikely to continue. However, a fraction of that success over the course of a 600 at-bat season would mean exciting numbers for a happy fantasy baseball owner.

The warning signs are there. While the magical notion of “sophomore slumps” does not exist, there is a real reason that young players seem to hit a wall after a season of success. Baseball is a game of adjustments, both inside the course of a game and from year to year as well. Just as we all saw what Jones did in 2009, so too did the league. They all now have a book on him. As sloppy fantasy owners get mesmerized by the opportunity to double those home run numbers in a full season, more attentive owners will notice that doubling those 76 strikeouts is a little concerning. Certainly, each of those Ks has given pitching coaches around baseball the beginnings of the textbook on how to attack Jones. It’s now on Jones as to whether he’ll be able to adjust to people knowing his weaknesses.

Adding to the problems for Garrett is that he’s a Pirate. Pittsburgh is not the type of club right now that litters the base-paths with Bucs. Notice that those 21 home runs produced just 44 RBIs and 45 runs. This is not surprising, but something that needs a diligent owner’s attention.

If too many of your fellow owners are acting as though Jones is the second-coming of Babe Ruth, then let him go and take a less-exciting option, like Hunter Pence.  He plays with a better supporting cast and his numbers, while not mind-blowing, are much more predictable. However, if your fellow owners let him slip long enough, he’s not a bad gamble for one of your final outfield spots.

Kyle Blanks – SD (OF/1B) – 2009 : 148 AB, .250 BA, 10 HR, 22 RBI, 24 R, 1 SB

Like Jones, some of your fellow owners took note of Kyle Blanks in 2009. His size (6′6” – 285 lbs.) makes you think of an NFL linebacker instead of baseball player.  However, it’s true.  Provided he has completely recovered from the season-ending foot injury he suffered in late August, Blanks will be the Padres starting right fielder on opening day.

Being that size certainly has its benefits. He swats at balls and they appear to be shot out of a cannon, at least for those briefs moments before they leave the hemisphere. In 148 at-bats, Blanks connected for 10 homes runs. Assuming a 600 at-bat season, that’s 40 long balls. For any other player, Petco Park’s spacious dimensions would be an issue, but throw the park out. Blanks can hit them out of anywhere.

However, the size has its drawbacks too. His strike-zone sleeps three, leading to 55 strikeouts in those same 148 at-bats. Over the course of a full season, that would allow him to test Mark Reynolds territory, who set (and then re-set) the MLB single-season strikeout records over the past two seasons(204 and 223, respectively).  This is important to note.  Blanks finds himself in a situation similar to Garret Jones.  He’s on a team that doesn’t have table-setters and so, the power will likely be the only positive stat he’ll provide for your team.  In the relatively small sampling, Blanks netted just 22 RBIs for those 10 home runs.   This is eerily similar to Jones’ problem, and where Jones at least showed some ability to hit for average (.293), Blanks was a .250 hitter.

Will Blanks cut down on the strikeouts per at-bat?  Probably, but not by that much.   What an owner needs to realize is that Blanks will likely be below average in runs and RBIs, because of his teammates, not him. He won’t steal a lot of bases (maybe 3) and he’ll hurt your team batting average.  Plus, he’s coming off an injury. So like Garrett Jones, if the bidding gets too high, let him go. For now, Blanks appears to be to power what Juan Pierre is to speed. Home runs that travel 500 feet count the same as the wall-scrapers.

Sleepers

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Randy Ruiz – TOR (DH) – 2009 : 115 AB, .313 BA, 10 HR, 17 RBI, 25 R, 1 SB

Unlike the two aforementioned players, many in your league may not have even heard of Randy Ruiz at this point.   The Toronto Blue Jays were tougher to watch last season than “For The Love of Ray J”, and 2009 will best be remembered for overplaying their Roy Halladay hand.  It’s a long season when your best moment is tricking someone into taking the contemptible Alex Rios and his enormous salary off your hands.  Good job White Sox!

But in the midst of that, there were some interesting players to watch, and Ruiz is clearly one of them. His power (10 home runs in 115 at-bats) looks a lot like the line Kyle Blanks put up, but impressively he struck out just 35 times and hit for a .313 average. Adjustments will be the key to the success of Ruiz, but prodigious power lives in his bat. While his 10 home runs produced just 17 RBIs, in what is a familiar theme to this article, with a better supporting cast (Adam Lind, Vernon Wells, Travis Snider, Aaron Hill to name a few) he should be able to achieve better production for his efforts than Garrett Jones and Kyle Blanks.

If owners are just chomping at the bit to get Blanks and Jones, let Ruiz slide a little and take him at your DH spot quietly toward the end of your draft. You may out-produce those others and you’ll have a reason to get involved in the silly drama that will be the 2010 Blue Jays. It should be better than “For The Love of Ray J 2″.

Matt Garza – TB (SP) – 2009 :  203.0 IN, 8 W, 3.95 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 189 K

The players mentioned in this article so far are young players with exciting upside.  Now it’s time for a player that others certainly know about, but might deserve an upgrade on your sheets. Matt Garza is a flat-out workhorse. If you’ve read my past articles, I preach the gospel of reliability. Usually, I’m referring to the guaranteed at-bats, but having a starter on your staff that you draft and never again have to deal with is a great boon to your chances of putting together a winning team.

Player values are like stock prices. They don’t always match reality, and are sometimes tied to people’s personal preferences. In most leagues, there was a decent amount of hype surrounding Garza when he was moved from the Twins. An 11-9 record in his first season with Tampa showed some promise (3.70 era/1.24 whip), but didn’t live up to the unrealistic hopes some owners had. 2009 would further disappoint Garza hopefuls, as he could muster just 8 wins. The Rays run support (or lack thereof) was to blame for the dearth of victories. However, the internal numbers tell the story of a young player coming into his own.

Garza started 32 games last season, up from an impressive 30 the year before. He also set a career-high in strikeouts with 189, jumping from 128 in 2008. The ERA and WHIP were up slightly from ‘08, but the moves were not enough that it should worry you. The ERA moved from 3.70 to 3.95, while the WHIP moved from 1.24 to 1.26. If nothing else, these moves appear to be a wash when compared to nearly 20 extra innings Garza tossed in 2009, his first season north of 200 in that category.

The bottom line is, take a close look at what pitchers are going in your league, and where they come off the board. If your fellow owners are willing to let him slip, jump up and grab him. Let them moan or laugh about the eight wins. You can sit back and smile to yourself knowing that you just bought 200+ solid major league innings on the cheap. What’s more important to you, the first laugh or the last?

Rip Van Winkles

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Angel Pagan – NYM (OF) – 2009 :  343 AB, .306 BA, 6 HR, 32 RBI, 54 R, 14 SB

Angel Pagan is a diamond in the rough…….the very rough. Sometimes last season, it appeared as though Pagan was someone the Mets had plucked from the stands for a promotional stunt.  But those times were never at the plate. Pagan is a wonderful contact hitter who got a chance to show his stuff for the second half of the dreadful 2009 Mets campaign after injuries derailed multiple Met players. The numbers were OK (343 ABs, 6 home runs, 14 stolen bases to 7 caught stealing), but to see him play is to feel the potential.

In baseball terminology, Pagan has a live bat. The few home runs he hit were out of the place before he was halfway to first and his outstanding contact rate (89.3% in 2009) led to a .306 batting average for the young player. The signing of Jason Bay means that Pagan is the odd man out in the Met outfield. Bay will patrol left with Carlos Beltran in center and Jeff Francoeur in right. Take as a good sign that when the Royals came calling earlier this off-season, the Mets would not talk about Pagan.

Sure he runs the base-paths like a T-baller, but that can be fixed. Keep an eye on the Mets outfield during the Spring. If any of them get hurt or traded, then Pagan will get another shot and you should move him way up your depth charts.

Will Venable – SD (OF) – 2009 :  293 AB, .256 BA, 12 HR, 38 RBI, 38 R, 6 SB

While Kyle Blanks makes people say, “Wow,” Will Venable makes people say, “Who’s that?” Acquaint yourself with this young Padre and be one of the few people in your league who knows the answer to that question.

Venable was called up last season even before Blanks and really struggled, but the Padres stuck with him and Venable showed real improvement. His final line (293 at-bats, .256 BA, 12 HRs, 6 SBs) won’t jump out at most of your fellow owners, which is why you need to store him in the back of your mind. He’s someone who you could probably get with your final spot and might go undrafted if you don’t take him, largely because the pedestrian numbers, combined with Petco Park, will send your fellow owners looking elsewhere.

Don’t break the bank to get him, but, as I always preach, at-bats are gold. Venable should play well enough to be in the Padre lineup on an everyday basis, and if given the late-draft decision between a one-dimensional player headed toward 400 at-bats or Venable, I’d take the at-bats and the surprisingly even-handed dispersal of power and speed.

– Mike D is an contributing writer for Fantasy Baseball Addiction

The average will be there, but what else?

The 2009 National League Rookie of the Year did not really put up the fantasy production we have come to expect from the winner of that distinguished award.  Chris Coghlan certainly had a fine season.  However, just because he won Rookie of the Year, doesn’t justify paying overpaying for him in your fantasy baseball auction.  Many GMs shelled out big bucks to protect or draft several of the recent ROY winners.  Recent winners of the N.L. ROY include: Ryan Braun, Hanley Ramirez, Ryan Howard, Jason Bay, and Albert Pujols.  Those names put up some incredible numbers in their rookie season, which made fantasy baseball GMs pay top dollar to either draft or protect those players.  Those who did were, for the most part, very happy with the results of their decision.

Yet there were some other names sprinkled in these last several years that did not pan out quite so well for owners that drafted them.  Those who decided to pay for Geovany Soto, Dontrelle Willis, Jason Jennings, and Scott Williamson (other recent N.L. ROY winners) were not quite so happy with the results.  Chris Coghlan could easily turn out to be a name on this second list.  So we ask that age old questions:  What are realistic fantasy baseball projections for Chris Coghlan in 2010?  and, How much should you pay for him in your 2010 fantasy baseball auction?

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Minor League Career

On the positive side, there are not a whole lot of minor league statistics for us to examine for Coghlan.  He played in at least part of 3 minor league seasons from 2006-2008, for a total of 277 games and just over 1000 ABs.  While this may make it harder to predict what he will do in the major leagues, it is a sign that his managers and coaches thought he was progressing nicely, and had the talent to perform in the show.  During his minor league stint, Coghlan accrued a BA of .293, an OBP of .384, and walked more than he struck out (BB-142, SO-137).  These are all great signs for Coghlan’s ability to hit.  Plate discipline is one of the major stumbling blocks that cause many a baseball prospect to falter and fail to achieve greatness.  Fortunately for those who will pay the price for Coghaln, he appears to be able to dodge this particular bullet.

Batting average, however, is only part of the equation you must calculate when looking at what Coghlan may do in the 2010 season.  While Coghlan can hit the occasional home run, he did not prove to be a power hitter in the minors.  He managed to hit only 19 home runs in the aforementioned 3 seasons.  So while the 24 year-old may develop more power as he ages, there is no indication that he will suddenly develop the power that fantasy GMs are looking for.  He did steal a good amount of bases while playing in the minors.  At his longest minor league stop (483 ABs for AA-Carolina) he stole 34 bases.  Granted, he was also caught 10 times, but it does show that he has the speed to make an impact on one’s fantasy roster if he were given the green light on the base-paths.

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2009

Chris Coghlan had a good 2009 season.  Well, let’s be a little more specific.  He had a awesome second half to the 2009 season.  In the first half, Coghlan hit a meager .245 over 200 ABs.  No big deal though, since it was his first appearance in the show, and struggles can be expected for a young player.  The second half of the season was completely different.  Coghlan hit .372 in his 304 ABs after the All-Star Break with an OBP of .423.  Sick numbers, right?  For the season he hit over .300 against both left-handed and right-handed pitching.  He hit over .290 both at home and away.  Coghlan’s power numbers were right in line with his minor league stats, hitting a home run every 56 ABs.  Though he did hit 7 home runs after the All-Star Break versus 2 before.  While Coghlan showed speed in the minors, as stated above his successful stolen base rate was somewhat lacking.  This fact was even more apparent in the big leagues, as he was caught stealing 5 times in his 13 attempts.

Another departure from his minor league numbers was his 2009 BB/K rate (53BB/77K).  From walking more than striking out in the minors, to walking 24 times less than striking out is a significant decline.  The decline is troubling, yet his contact rate on balls he swung at was great (84.2%), and his contact rate on balls swung at in the strike zone was nuts (91.7%).  This leads me to believe that while he may not walk at as great a rate as he did in the minors, striking out will not be a big problem for Coghlan.  Thanks again to Fangraphs.com for their excellent stats.

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Warning Signs

The warning signs for Coghlan are not directly apparent.  Statistically, Coghlan has proven to be a competent major league hitter.  The only batting average related statistic that perhaps waves a small red flag is that his BABIP was 33 points higher on the big club in 2009 than it was in his 2008 minor league season (2009- .366, 2008- .333).  Despite this, it is a good bet that he will continue to hit for a good batting average. If he continues to hit at the top of the order, then he will continue to score runs.  That is, however, only two of the five major fantasy baseball scoring categories.  His power may spike for a season or two here or there, but he does not project to develop regular 20 HR power, especially while playing half his games at Land Shark Stadium.  His 47% ground ball rate, and low HR/FB rate support that premise.  While he was able to steal a good total of bases in the minors, he managed to steal only 8 bases in 13 attempts during 2009.  This is a miserable success rate, let alone for a lead-off hitter.  In fact, his rate was only 50% over the second half of 2009 (4SB, 4CS).  If this was a technique issue, his success rate should have climbed as he was coached on how to steal at the major league level.  So while he has the on-base skills to maintain his standing as a top of the order hitter, there is only so much that he can do with those opportunities.

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Fantasy Implications

Coghlan has gotten a ton of press since the All-Star Break of 2009.  To be honest, his profile is higher than it should be.  He is a nice fantasy commodity if you are looking for a 4th outfielder.  He will help you negate another active player’s terrible batting average, and score more runs than the average player.  However, if you are counting on him to take another big step forward in the power and speed categories, you are asking to be disappointed.  There is nothing that shows that he is going to grow significantly in those areas.  Coghlan won the award, which means everyone will know his name.  With a second half batting average so high, people will know his stats.  The point is that you are not going to get him cheap unless you can protect him for the small price you drafted him for in 2009.  So we have a steady hitter that will score runs, not hit for much power, not steal for a few bases, that won a huge award causing everyone in your league to know who he is.

This is not a fantasy baseball sleeper.  This is not a breakout candidate.  This is a very nice piece that you can use on your team for the right price.  Bump his value up a bit if you can keep him or draft him at 2B.  The key is realizing that, and not paying to much to get him on your roster.  Batting average is nice, but it also fluctuates.  If you are depending on a player to hit for a high average to justify the price you are going to pay, and they don’t, that is just wasted money.  Despite all the stats that indicate that he will continue to hit well, stranger things have happened than a second-year player hitting significantly worse than he did in his rookie year.  Some bad luck and a downturn in his BABIP and the player you think of as your “stud, rookie of the year, keeper” is just a slightly better version of Skip Schumaker.

2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections: .308 BA, 11 HR, 42 RBI, 90 R, 12 SB, 605 AB