A.L. ROY – Michael Brantley –  Will win the job, hit for average, steal bases.

N.L. ROY – Jason Heyward – Should be starting from the beginning of the season.

A.L. Cy Young – Zach Greinke (second place – Felix Hernandez) That’s right, folks.  He is for real.

N.L. Cy Young – Tim Lincecum (second place – Dan Haren) Haren finally puts it together in the second half, but The Freak is just too good.

A.L. Fantasy MVP – Ian Kinsler –  I am a believer that he can get that batting average.

N.L. Fantasy MVP – Albert Pujols –  How can anyone deny this?

A.L. Hitter Breakout – Adam Jones –  If he can keep that left foot healthy, he should thrive.

N.L. Hitter Breakout – Jay Bruce –  Gotta figure out the lefties, but 3rd time is the charm.

A.L. Pitcher Breakout - Matt Garza –  K rate spiked in 2009, wins should follow.

N.L. Pitcher Breakout – Clayton Kershaw –  So young, and ready to join the elite.

A.L. Hitter Most Overpaid for – Aaron Hill –  Don’t you believe that 30 HRs are assured.

N.L. Hitter Most Overpaid for –  Mark Reynolds –  Too much room for doubt.  Only sure thing is a bad BA.

A.L. Pitcher Most Overpaid for – Javier Vazquez –  A.L., ballpark working against ratios.

N.L. Pitcher Most Overpaid for – Ubaldo Jimenez –  Too wild.

A.L. Shakiest Closer (with job now) – Brian Fuentes –  Most saves in 2009, terrible WHIP, Angels signed Rodney.

N.L. Shakiest Closer (with job now) – Brandon Lyon – What were the Astros thinking?

A.L. Bargain Closer – Rafael Soriano –  Health is the only risk here.

N.L. Best Bargain Closer – Billy Wagner –  Wasn’t really in any decline before injury.

A.L. Best Save Vulture – Fernando Rodney –  Only a matter of time…

N.L. Best Save Vulture – Jason Motte –  Franklin’s numbers way beyond career averages.  Motte spits fire.

A.L. Comeback Player – Adrian Beltre –  Change to a good team in a better park while healthy should make him a bargain.

N.L. Comeback Player – Brandon Webb –  Best sinker in the game.

A.L. Sleeper to Watch – Clay Buchholz –  4 pitches and now a bit of seasoning.  Sounds a lot like Greinke.

N.L. Sleeper to Watch – Kyle Blanks –  Big man, big power, showed up in shape.

A.L. Take a Flyer on – Brandon Wood –  This could finally be the time..

N.L. Take a Flyer on – Eric Young Jr. –  Speed to burn, gotta find a place to play.

UNDER/OVER

18 HRS for David Wright - OVER (22)

.300 BA for Jason Bartlett – UNDER (.290)

28 HRs for Joe Mauer – UNDER (22)

180 IN for Chris Carpenter – OVER (210)

30 Saves for Rafael Soriano – OVER (37)

50 SBs for Nyjer Morgan – OVER (52)

4.0 ERA for Javier Vazquez – OVER (4.30)

400 ABs for Mike Napoli – OVER (460)

4.0 Post All-Star Break ERA for Dan Haren – UNDER (3.30)

Catcher

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Jorge Posada (NYY) –  There is no question that he is getting up there in age.  He also has recent injury history that makes him a risk.  However he will remain a starter on one of the most powerful offensive lineups in the league.  There are just better options that could break through and remain better for longer than Posada.  I would rather focus my attention on a longer-term option.  They will also likely be cheaper.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $12

Miguel Montero (ARI) –  I had Montero on my team last season, and he was a pleasure.  In 234 second-half ABs, Montero hit 11 HR with 40 RBI and a .316 batting average.  While many of your competition will focus on the big-hype Matt Wieters, if you can keep Montero for the right price, he could be a gem.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $14

Mike Napoli (LAA) -  This guy is a tease.  In the last two seasons, he has hit 40 home runs in only 609 ABs.  While this number is about a full season of ABs for the normal position player, as we know, catchers average closer to 500.  Either way, the power Napoli offers cannot be denied.  A “full” season for him of 500 ABs would probably result in 30+ HRs.  Napoli has also seemed to get his batting average up to acceptable levels (though his BABIP has risen every season of his career).  The problem with Napoli is that he just doesn’t play enough to get a full season.  Mike Scioscia likes to mix it up behind the plate, perhaps due to Napoli’s below-average defense.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $13

Russell Martin (LAD) –  What was once a no-brain protect has dropped dramatically in value.  Once, he was the best power/speed option at the position (and he still may be).  However, an across the board drop in all scoring categories for a second straight season should keep the bidding on Martin low.  He could easily have a resurgence in 2010, but don’t pay to keep him as though it is certain.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $9

Matt Wieters (BAL) - Don’t overpay for the hype.  He certainly can hit.  He has some power.  But he is still very young, and the power that would make him the keeper we are looking for may take some time to develop.  Keep in mind how long it took for Joe Mauer to find his pop.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $11

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First Base

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Paul Konerko (CWS) –  Don’t expect a rebound to his previous power and batting average levels.  For that matter, don’t pay for his name.  His line-drive rate has dropped significantly, his fly-ball rate was a career high in 2009, and his RBIs have been very disappointing over the last two seasons.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $10

Carlos Pena (TB) –  Prodigious power, a low batting average.  Pena has hit 46, 31,39 home runs respectively in the last three seasons.  Even more impressive is that he did so in under 500 ABs in each season.  That batting average, however, has gone from good, to bad, to awful, in those three seasons as well.  There is some hope of recovery since Pena’s BABIP in 2009 was .253.  That is over 50 points lower than in 2007 and 2008, and over 100 points lower than in 2006.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $19

Lance Berkman (HOU) –  I have owned Berkman in two different keeper leagues over the last several seasons.  Last season I had enough.  I traded him away in both leagues, and am not looking back.  It is not that I don’t believe he can be valuable, because he still can.  What is frustrating is not being able to predict what kind of season he will have.  His power in the first half of 2009 was great, hitting 18 HRs.  Yet for the second season, his second half saw his fantasy value tank.  He is just too inconsistent.  Not to mention, his supporting cast is not as strong as it used to be in his glory days.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $23

Billy Butler (KC) –  If you are going to keep a player based on upside rather than proven production, do so at one of the thiner positions where a true breakout will be much more valuable.  Billy Butler is a nice player, and could hit .300 and approach 30 home runs in 2010.  However, he has not proven to be worthy of reaching for, and certainly not paying top dollar for.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $13

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Second Base

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Dan Uggla (FLA) –  At second base, there are no-brainers and there are non-protects.  There are very few “bubble guys”.  Uggla will be seen in many leagues to be a no-brain protect.  He is, after all, a great source of power for a middle infielder.  The batting average is a strike against him, but so long as you aren’t paying the same price for him as for the elite at the position, you should keep him.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $23

Gordon Beckham (CWS) –  Now switching to second base for the 2010 season, Beckham sees added fantasy value.  With power potential and speed enough to steal bases, Beckham will be overpriced in auctions based on his upside.  If you have him in a keeper league and can keep him for a low price, don’t even think about letting him go.  You will not get him back for anywhere near the single digit price you probably have him for.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $19

Ben Zobrist (TB) –  I like this kid.  His numbers are on the upswing and he offers production in at least 4 of the 5 scoring categories.  However, like all players, it is safer to pay top dollar after establishing a track record for more than one season.  Bump his value up a couple of dollars if the 13 games he played at shortstop in 2009 qualifies him in your league.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $21

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Third Base

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Chone Figgins (SEA) –  The stolen bases are nice.  But going from the Angels to the Mariners hurts Figgy’s value.  It remains to be seen where he will bat in the order (my guess is second), and may struggle to reach 100 runs in 2010.  He offers little power (even less now at Safeco) and his batting average is all over the map from one season to another.  At best a three category contributor.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $21

Pablo Sandoval (SF) –  I nearly didn’t put him in this “bubble” category because it is common knowledge that this kid can rake.  I would keep him in a heartbeat, and expect good power with a very good batting average.  On the weak hitting Giants, he will probably hit in the heart of the order.  MAX PROTECT PRICE $25

Ian Stewart (COL) –  I am not a fan of keeping young players who’s power makes them attractive while their batting average is low.  It is that kind of player that goes for too much bid money, and could wind up losing playing time.  Stewart falls into that category.  He was not a high batting average guy in the minors, and there is no reason to believe that he will just become one in the big leagues.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $12

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Shortstop

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Jason Bartlett (TB) –  Perhaps the biggest (if not most unexpected) fantasy baseball breakout of 2009, Bartlett is sure to be one of the tougher decisions for fantasy owners for 2010.  The batting average was huge at .320 and the power just kept coming to the tune of 14 HRs.  You can expect the batting average to correct a bit based on his BABIP, and the power was just too out of nowhere to believe in entirely.  However, Bartlett can be seen as an option worth of protecting since he will likely be the most valuable shortstop on the board if dropped.  Also worthy of note is that he will lead off should Carl Crawford be traded as is widely speculated.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $21

Alexei Ramirez (CWS) –  Ramirez is exactly the reason that you have to contain your expectations when paying for unproven young talent.  Alexi failed to meet the marks he set in 2008 during his second season in 4 out of the 5 categories despite logging 60 more ABs in 2009.  The potential is still there for a nice 5-category season, but remember that he is not some 23 year old.  He will be 29 this year.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $18

Elvis Andrus (TEX) –  Moving Michael Young to third base to make room for Andrus, the Rangers must expect big things from him to hand the starting job over to a 20 year old.  He made good on his first year in the bigs, and provided good fantasy value to his owners.  His batting average may not develop past his current mediocre level for another couple of seasons, but Andrus should be a fairly reliable option.  Now that Julio Borbon has been anointed the starter in center, thoughts of Andrus leading off should be over.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $14

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Outfield

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Torii Hunter (LAA) –  He is a lock for good, but not great production in all five categories.  That makes him dependable.  It also makes his ceiling fairly limited.  While potential breakouts such as Adam Jones and Andrew McCutchen will be bid up by GMs looking for the next big thing, Hunter will just continue giving good low-profile value.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $20

Chris Coghlan (FLA) –  Man, I hope you guys don’t overpay for Coghlan.  His numbers show that the batting average will remain high, but there will probably be little else to woo fantasy owners.  Not much power, not much speed (though the SB number could tick up slightly), and the loss of infield qualification dictates that you not go overboard for the 2009 N.L. ROY.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $11

Nyjer Morgan (WAS) –  The speedster successfully escaped Pittsburgh and ran wild once arriving in Washington.  Again, we are not talking about a youngster, as it took a good while for Morgan to break into the bigs and hold a spot there.  He is fast and can hit for average, however, and can help lock in a nice finish for your team in the stolen base category.  If your list of protects is studly, or slanted greatly towards power, pay an extra dollar or two for his services.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $17

Nate McLouth (ATL) –  He took a step back from his 2008 campaign, but 2009 still saw McLouth approach the 20-20 mark.  His ground ball rate has gone up almost 10% in the last two seasons, but his OBP remained constant.  While he may not take the step forward we were hoping for in 2009, he is still a fine source of power and speed.  Just think 2nd or 3rd outfielder, not 1st or 2nd.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $16

Raul Ibanez (PHI) –  Oh, what a disappointment the second half of 2009 was.  After crushing the ball and hitting 22 HRs with a .309 BA in the first half, the .238 batting average with 12 HRs in the second was a letdown.  Ibanez is old, and he never showed the type of power that he did in the first half of 2009.  Do not count on it continuing.  If you have him dirt cheap keep him, but there are better options out there with higher upside.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $11

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Starting Pitchers

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Johan Santana (NYM) –  I put him here in case there was some doubt in your mind that he should be protected.  He should be, and as a top pitcher.  Monitor his health up until the last moment you have to turn in your protects.  But if you hear no bad news, assume all is well and pay what you have to.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $30

Cole Hamels (PHI) –  I am a believer that Hamels just had an off season.  He works off his fastball with one of the best change-ups in the game.  His K/9 rate was almost unchanged from his very good 2008, as was his BB/9 rate.  The main difference in his numbers was his BABIP, which was 36 points higher than 2007 and 55 points higher than in 2008.  If you have him at top tier price, you can probably let him go and get him back cheaper in the auction.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $26

Javier Vazquez (NYY) –  With the season Vazquez had in 2009, many GMs will just automatically keep Vazquez.  Personally, I would be looking to trade him to someone else.  The change back to the American League and a hitter’s ballpark is going to crush his ratios, and make anyone who pays top dollar for him very sorry.  The good news is that since his 2009 was so much better than expected, you probably have him at a fairly cheap price.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $16

Yovani Gallardo (MIL) –  The touted youngster put up a nice season in 2009, which is sure to make fantasy GMs drool in anticipation of drafting him.  However, he suffers from a common affliction among young pitchers, which is a tendency to walk batters.  He is worth keeping at a moderate price, but know if you let him go, it will cost you to get him back.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $18

Tommy Hanson (ATL) –  The youngster posted a great stat-line in his first taste of the big leagues.  A 2.89 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP is nothing to sneeze at.  But neither is the fact that he has never thrown more innings during a season than he did in 2009 (194 IN between AAA and MLB).  To me, that is not enough of a sample size to pay for the hype that surrounds such a player.  Young pitchers are the most unpredictable commodity in fantasy baseball, and you should realize that before keeping such an unproven player.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $13

Ubaldo Jimenez (COL) –  Jimenez took a nice step forward in 2009, but that still leaves a ways to go.  I mean, he went from a 1.44 WHIP to a 1.23 WHIP.  Better?  Yes.  Worthy of paying as an elite pitcher?  No.  The potential is there for Jimenez to improve further, but there are options that have better control out there.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $16

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Closers

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Before we get into specific cases of closers, note that this is the fantasy baseball position that changes most often, and quickest.  Be sure to keep up with it by using our “Closer Report“.

Francisco Cordero (CIN) –  I am not a huge fan of closers that put up a high WHIP, and Cordero is one of these.  It is hard to argue with the results, since he has posted at least 22 saves in every season since 2004.  Yet in that same time span his WHIP has only been under 1.29 once.  That says to me that it will not take much decline for him to lose his job.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $18

Ryan Franklin (STL) –  Franklin is not some fireballing young kid that took the team by storm.  Instead, he was the lesser of the evils available in the Cardinal bullpen in 2009.  Sure, he came through with one of his better seasons, but with a track record of WHIP numbers as likely to be over 1.4 as under 1.2, Franklin had better be at the right price if you intend to protect him.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $13

Rafael Soriano (TB) –  The new closer for the Rays yanked the job away from Mike Gonzalez in Atlanta last season.  His second half was significantly worse than his first, yet he has the makeup of a closer and his secondary numbers point to success.  Injury is a risk with his history, and he also has some competition in the deep Ray’s pen if he should stumble.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $19

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Catchers

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First Tier:  Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez, Brian McCann

Most people are going to look at this first tier and wonder why Joe Mauer is not all by himself.  The reason that he isn’t is that his exceptional 2009 was only the first time he has given fantasy owners the power that they have been waiting on for years.  I have said it before, and I am sure I will say it again (even during this article): Predictability is one of the chief factors to use when picking players to target in your fantasy draft or auction.  To be placed in a top tier by oneself, not only does the player have to have excellence in production, but a relative certainty that this production will continue for at least another season.  No one is questioning Mauer’s batting average, but in 2009 he more than doubled his career high in HR, and broke 85 RBI for the first time in his career.  Without the track record for hitting over 20 home runs per season, I hesitate to recommend paying for Mauer as though he is the clear favorite at the position.  Victor Martinez also had an excellent season in 2009, and also has hit over 20 HR multiple times (as well as recorded over 85 RBI four times).  So you tell me…… are you SURE that Mauer is going to have a better 2010 season than Martinez?  I am not, so I cannot recommend that you pay significantly more for Mauer.

Finally, we come to Brian McCann.  Much like Mauer before 2009, McCann seems to still be developing.  While his power is consistent with about 20 or more HR in all but one season of his career, he does not put up the same uber-batting average Mauer does, nor the RBI total typical of Martinez.  It is actually pretty strange.  McCann’s production year-to-year remains almost identical to his first full season.  It is good fantasy production for a catcher, but it seems like he should be able to improve on these numbers as he matures and gains experience.

Second Tier:  Jorge Posada, Matt Wieters, Miguel Montero, Russell Martin

Everyone in this second tier has the ability to put up numbers worthy of the first tier.  However, there is a reason that each player has not been placed in that upper echelon.  What is it about Dodger catchers?  The last two full-time Dodger catchers both came out of the gate strong.  Remember Paul LoDuca’s rookie season?  It was a monster (25 HR, 90 RBI, .320 BA).  Then, a not-so-gradual fade away into fantasy obscurity.  Now it seems a similar (yet not as abrupt) fade is happening to Russell Martin.  His HR, RBI, SB, and BA have all dropped for two straight seasons after his excellent 2007.  Of course, it is completely possible that he can improve on his production, but the decline he has started keeps him out of the top tier, and should reduce his price at auction to match.  Jorge Posada is getting old.  There is no denying it, and keep in mind that he is THE MAN to any and all Yankee fans in the world.  Yet with a bad shoulder at 38 years old, it is only a matter of time before the decline in his fantasy production makes the price his name commands too high to pay.

Matt Wieters is surely the name that the “upside seekers” in your league are going to target.  His rookie year has to be seen as a success, and more is likely to come.  That is, unless his career path goes the same as Brian McCann, who as we covered, has not made much improvement in the fantasy categories since his first full season.  Personally, I would rather target Miguel Montero.  His name does not have as much hype surrounding it, and his upside is similar.  Chris Snyder was able to hold him off for a season or so, but once Montero was given a full-time role, the DBacks were not going to take it away.  With 16 home runs and a .294 batting average in his first full-time gig, his numbers could easily be better than Wieters in 2010.  At the time of this article, Bengie Molina had not yet signed with a team.  He is old, he is slow, but has shown good power over the seasons.  His 2008 season was his best season, putting up 95 RBI and a .295 batting average.  This was while he was batting cleanup for the Giants, a position in the batting order he is not likely to see again in his career.  In 2009 his power was at a career high, but his batting average dropped back closer to his career average.

Third Tier:  Bengie Molina, Ryan Doumit, A.J. Pierzynski, Mike Napoli, Geovany Soto, Chris Iannetta

I like a couple of the names in this tier, and if you can get them later or cheaper than the names above, they are completely worth the risk.  Ryan Doumit was among the higher-priced catchers in 2009 auctions.  Coming off of a relatively healthy 2008 in which he put up a .318 batting average, those that had seen the potential in his bat were expecting even more.  His 2009 season was not as healthy, yet his 10 HR in only 280 ABs was still worthy of note.  Since the power and ABs went down, you can expect his price to do the same.  Sit back, wait, and when others are pointing to the 10 HR as a reason to not pay the extra bid money, you can realize that his AB/HR ratio actually improved, and his BB/K ratio was almost identical to his 2008 season.  While his OBP dropped, the difference between his 2008 and 2009 BABIP can account for much of this (BABIP: 2008 – .338, 2009 – .271).  I like his upside and his expected 2010 price.  I also like A.J. Pierzynski.  While not the most spectacular option behind the dish, his predictable production makes up for his lack of upside.  We pretty much know what A.J. will do, and he will not hurt your team (or your bid money) by drafting him.  In his last 4 seasons he has only one with a batting average under .281, and he hit between 13 and 16 HR per season.  He does play in a very homer friendly ballpark, so a power spike is possible, but it is not needed to justify paying an extra dollar or two for his services.

On the surface, Mike Napoli looks like he should be in the second tier.  There is no questioning that the guy has power to spare.  With 20 HR for two straight seasons (both seasons with under 400 AB) there is upside here if he can ever have a truly full season.  So health is a primary concern.  Also, one has to look at the subtle decline in his secondary numbers from 2008 to 2009.  His SLG and OBP both dropped as well as his BB/K rate.  This all happened while his BABIP went UP slightly over that time.  He could be the best power hitting catcher in the league, or he could spend half the season on the D.L. and hit .250.  For the price he will command, I would rather pay less for more certain production.

Geovany Soto and Chris Iannetta both have a similar situation.  They both had great 2008 seasons, followed by a much worse 2009.  While Iannetta was touted coming into the bigs, his great season was preceded by struggle, and now after his struggles in 2009 he also has to contend with Miguel Olivo on the roster.  Olivo will eat into his playing time, and has the power to make that split damaging to Iannetta’s value.  Soto changed his approach at the plate in 2007 and his numbers exploded.  With the starting job wrapped up in 2008, the excellence continued.  However, in 2009 his numbers sank back closer to his previous levels, and his BA dropped all the way to .218.  A rebound to a middle-ground is likely, but don’t pay as though 2009 never happened.

Fourth Tier:  Kurt Suzuki, Yadier Molina, Kelly Shoppach, John Baker, Buster Posey, Ramon Hernandez, Ivan Rodriguez, Miguel Olivo

We are now into the group of catchers where they are either unproven or have limited upside.  Of this group, Miguel Olivo is the best power option, and that power could increase in Colorado, especially if he steals significant playing time from Iannetta.  His batting average may not be high enough to help your team, but if the Colorado effect can raise it up just a bit, he will be more than serviceable for your fantasy roster.  Another name that is sure to stand out on this list is Kurt Suzuki.  Having ranked 4th among catchers in RBI for 2009, there will be those that expect more to come.  I do not.  If you would like a detailed reason as to why, read about him in my Overrated Fantasy Hitters article.  I expected a bit of a resurgence from Ramon Hernandez in 2009, as he moved to the home run friendly ballpark in Cincinnati.  Obviously, I was wrong.  He was not playing all that well even before the injury which robbed him of most of the season.  He could still have an upswing, as his 2009 numbers were so bad it is easy to expect more.  However, at 34 years old, we have most likely seen his best.

Kelly Shoppach was trapped for years behind Victor Martinez.  Apparently the Indians did not think that he was a long term starter, as they let him go even after Martinez left town.  Now with a chance to play regularly, Shoppach will go from draft afterthought to overpriced, unproven commodity.  He has shown decent power in his history, but with a season high batting average of .261 (which dropped to .214 in 2009) his upside is limited.  Until he figures out how to hit right-handed pitching at a better rate, he is destined to lose playing time to another option.  John Baker was a popular sleeper in 2009.  Hitting .299 in 2008, fantasy GMs were expecting another step forward in 2009.  Well, he didn’t take a step forward, but he didn’t take much of a step back either.  His power was almost the same as in 2008, and his batting average (while down from 2008) was still at an acceptable level.  I don’t like drafting moderate power options in that ballpark, but at least Baker will not hurt you in the batting average category.  Yadier Molina is very similar to Baker.  Decent batting average, little power, low price.

Buster Posey is an upside pick, but that upside is limited to how soon the Giants let him catch for the big club.  He has power and can definitely hit for average.  If he can make the jump sooner rather than later, he should be able to help fantasy rosters.  Stash him away late if you have the roster space.

The Rest:  Rod Barajas, Carlos Ruiz, Gerald Laird, Rob Johnson, Carlos Santana, Greg Zaun, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Alex Avila, Jason Kendall, Jesus Flores, Nick Hundley

Once we get this far down the list at catcher, we are talking about spending just a dollar or two to get them.  With only upside to offer, there is little proven production that can be pointed to among this group.  Jesus Flores was supposed to be the starter in Washington before they signed Ivan Rodriguez.  He has shown that he can hit a little, and that his power is better than average for a catcher.  However, without a starting gig, how much he can help your team is in question.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia is also another player that was supposed to be a starter by now, but has stalled in his development.  He also has Taylor Teagarden competing for playing time, which further cuts into the likelihood that he will be a good option behind the plate.

Bottom line.  If you have gone so long without drafting a catcher that this is the list to chose from, keeping waiting and take a player with upside at another position if you can.

Doubt the power... not the talent

Season-ending, head-scratching is part of the fun of fantasy baseball. So many 2009 owners spent an arm and leg to make sure they had a top-notch shortstop. When all was said and done, how many asked themselves, “Why didn’t I get Jason Bartlett and spend my Hanley Ramirez-money elsewhere?” In case you didn’t notice, this Tampa SS put up a monster year, hitting .320 with a .389 OBP to go with 14 home runs, 30 stolen bases, 90 runs and 66 rbis — all career highs. So the question becomes, will Bartlett play well enough in 2010 to warrant the added attention he will surely garner on draft day?

Minors

It may seem odd to take a look a 30 year-old player’s minor league history, but there is one thing to note about Bartlett. He is a product of the Twins organization. The Twins minor league system has this amazing ability to turn out players who do what they’re supposed to do.  Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Scott Baker of recent note, Bartlett was also a member of that fraternity, and was always touted as a contact, line-drive hitter with better-than-average speed and a good glove. This is basically the skill set that has made him an everyday major leaguer.

2009

Those who have followed Bartlett’s slow (sometimes painfully slow), rise as a serious fantasy option at SS were properly enticed by what had always been a cheap source of stolen bases. When an owner didn’t get Option 1 or 2 at shortstop, Bartlett was a decent choice because of his ability to swipe a bag, even at the detriment of power and RBIs. The 2009 season has thrown that all out the window; Bartlett had a career year.

As 2009 unfolded, many believed Bartlett’s numbers would fade, especially his batting average and power. After a minor hamstring injury slowed him for a bit, the excuse was there for the slide to begin. He hit .247 in the month of July. August days are supposed to be the “dog days” where worn out players finally fall off, but after that slow July, Bartlett got it cranking again, hitting .356 in August. He slowed a little again to the finish line, but was out there everyday, right up to the end. He finished with a stolen base in 5 of his final 6 games of the season. There is no doubt. 2009 was a spectacular, wire-to-wire effort for Bartlett, but what should we be concerned about?

Warning Signs

There are quite a few things that flash “Stay Away!!!” when a player has a breakout season. For starers, there’s history. Past baseball drafts are strewn with the carcasses of teams built around players who were coming of off huge seasons. How many 2004 drafts had wild bidding on Esteban Loaiza after his 21 win/207 strikeout 2003? There was plenty of evidence that Loaiza wasn’t going to repeat that effort and only a little evidence that he might.

That, of course, is an extreme example, but it is more likely that Bartlett fits into the Adrain Beltre mode; a guy who was all upside until his 48 home run outburst in 2004, then became a disappointment as owners spent 48 home run dollars to get 19 home run production. With both Beltre and Bartlett, there is a history of stats leading up to the explosion. Owners need to realize that the price for Bartlett will probably be too high, but the question is, what will his stats for 2010 be?

Before we get to those projections, let’s go over the remaining Bartlett-specific issues in the numbers. As mentioned earlier, these were career numbers across the board and in some instances, complete outliers. Home runs jumps out as the category that seems least likely to repeat. Bartlett had a career total of 11 home runs entering the 2009 season, and this 29-year old, was able to more-than-double that total. It’s possible that he’s found a power stroke, but to pay, expecting 14 home runs every 500 at-bats(as it was in 2009) is silly. If you pay and get them, consider yourself lucky. The good news is that you aren’t(or shouldn’t be) drafting Bartlett for his power. If you got 9 instead of 14, your team shouldn’t be all that affected.

Further, the other numbers do seem a bit tough to repeat, but at least there’s some precedent. If you’re concerned about the batting average, don’t be. Just expect a .290 average when you’re putting your squad together and be happy with everything you get over that. A .290 batting average is more than attainable and actually leaves you plenty of upside. See, if you build expecting a .290 average and get a .305 batting average, you will be in good shape, as it will fill in for the failings of other players, where if you expect the repeat at .320, then get that .305, your team will actually be in the hole. Instead of that .305 helping, it hurts, so the lesson here is plan wisely. Don’t expect too much from certain players and it will force you to be realistic about the stats you need from the rest of your team.

Good News and Projections:

An interesting bit of news has been floating out there that potential Bartlett owners should keep an eye on. The Rays, flush with the excitement after their great 2008 run, went out and spent some money, primarily on Pat Burrell. Well, 2009 wasn’t so good, especially at the gate, and that put the Rays in a difficult situation. They may be forced to move a major salary, and the word is that Carl Crawford might be shipped out for prospects. If this happens, Jason Bartlett would become the primary option to bat leadoff, with some time in the two-hole.  It also means almost no time at the bottom of the order, which is where he often found himself in 2009. Remember, the blow out stats for Bartlett came in just 500 at-bats this season. Even if you believe that the home runs will decline, the raw number, with extra at-bats, may not look all that different. As it was, Bartlett was only hitting one home run every 36 at-bats. Let’s say that moves to one every 50 at-bats, but Bartlett ends up with 600 at-bats on the season; that’s still 12 home runs. As discussed earlier, you aren’t really getting Bartlett for the home runs, but that same math applies to all the other categories you care about. In 2009, Bartlett scored 90 times, while batting 7th, 8th or 9th in the order for a combined 65 games. If Bartlett is hitting 1st or 2nd for the entire season(or even most of the season), he will set another career high in runs scored in 2010, as he will be sure to be in triple-digits for the first time. The Crawford situation is one a swift fantasy owner will watch closely. If Crawford is dealt, the price for this SS might suddenly be a lot easier to swallow. If all that happens, get Bartlett for sure, but for now, I would work off the following stat projections:

2010 Prediction: 530 abs/.290 ba/9 HR/90 runs/65 rbi/27 sb