Mark DeRosa  (3B/OF – SF) –  Mark DeRosa is still dealing with some soreness in his wrist.  He had surgery on it in the off-season and it has still not fully recovered.  This is very bad news for his fantasy value, which had already taken a big hit for two reasons.  Firstly, in 2009 his OBP dropped 60 points from his previous two seasons.  His strikeout rate took a huge jump, and he only gained 2 home runs from his 2008 total.  Secondly, he moved to the pitcher-friendly AT&T park (so him matching his 23 HR total from 2009 is far from likely).  He wasn’t a great pick before the news that his wrist is not healed.  Now, he is a terrible pick.

Nick Johnson  (1B – NYY) –  For those of you timing how long it would take for Nick Johnson to get dinged up, you may stop your stopwatches.  He has a sore back.  Normally, I would not even report something so innocuous as a sore back in spring training.  However, in the case of Nick “Fragile” Johnson, it is just an indication that it is the same old story with the breakable on-base machine.  Draft him hoping for 350 ABs, not 500.

Fernando Rodney  (RP – LAA) –  It looks as though Fernando Rodney will begin throwing soon.  One can assume that Brian Fuentes is now nervous.  Although Rodney had a 4.40 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP, he blew only one save in 2009.  Fuentes’ ratios were not much better in 2009, and he blew more saves.  If Rodney is significantly behind in his spring training, the result could be a longer leash for Fuentes.  However, I am guessing that leash runs out early this year.

Allen Craig  (1B/3B/OF – STL) -  This is a very interesting situation that I will track this spring.  By no means is Craig assured a roster spot this season.  It reminds me of back in the day when Tony LaRussa swore up and down that Albert Pujols was not going to break camp with the team.  Obviously he did and hasn’t looked back.  With the injury issues to Brendan Ryan, and presence of only stopgap options behind him, Craig could get a look if he performs well this spring.  Craig has played first base, third base, and the outfield.  With such versatility, it would not surprise me at all if he found a roster spot.  He was the organization’s player of the year in 2009, putting up stats that Brendan Ryan can only dream of.  He is also currently dealing with a minor quad injury, but is due to be back soon.  Track this closely, there is some sleeper potential here.

Joel Piniero  (SP – LAA) –  Not only do I not believe that Piniero is a fantasy asset, I think that he is very likely to waste a large amount of your bid money if you buy him in your 2010 fantasy baseball auction.  Sure, he threw a career high 214 innings, had a 3.77 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP.  However if you look a little closer, you will see that his secondary numbers paint a less optimistic picture of his “breakout” season.  His K/9 rate dropped to a career low 4.42.  While his BAA was not terrible at .265 (which is decent, not great) he still let up more hits than innings pitched.  If it were not for his career best BB/9 rate (which was WAY beyond his career norms, about half what it had been the previous two seasons), his WHIP could have done some damage to fantasy teams.  So sure, if he can hold that walk rate down, his ratios may not be terrible.  However, paying for a pitcher that is moving from the National to the American League after a career season is exactly the way that a fantasy GM can get burned and waste either bid money or a too high a pick in a fantasy baseball draft.  Oh yeah, he struggled his first start this spring.

Jason Heyward  (OF – ATL) –  Heyward is impressing early this spring with his plate discipline and defense.  Matt Diaz is still a threat to a full season worth of ABs, but the ceiling is just so much higher for the younger Heyward.  He is very young, and could struggle at times, however he is a real talent that you should track closely this spring.  If he breaks camp with a starting job, he could be a nice fantasy baseball sleeper for 2010.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia  (C – TEX) –  There is an open competition going on for the starting catcher role on the Rangers.  Salty and Taylor Teagarden are neck and neck.  While this competition would ideally result in finding which one should start this season, more likely it will result in finding which one will get the greater end of a platoon.  Salty did manager to have a good game Thursday, going 2-3 with a 3-run bomb.  However, that is not going to seal the deal.  An maintained offensive explosion from one of them could tip the balance.  If you have to chose between one or the other, go with Salty until you have Teagarden does something special.

Outfield

——————

Top Tier:  Ryan Braun, Carl Crawford, Matt Kemp, Jacoby Ellsbury, Matt Holliday, Justin Upton, Jason Bay

Some of the best power and speed mixes in fantasy baseball are in this tier.  Ryan Braun has hit non-stop since joining the major league club.  He hits for power, a high batting average, and even set a career high in stolen bases in 2009.  He is only 26 years old.  Carl Crawford proved that he wasn’t finished after a mediocre 2008, finishing 2009 with 60 SBs and his highest home run total since 2006.  He even got that batting average over .300 to prove himself once again a 5-category threat.  Matt Kemp has the potential to take over the number one slot if he improves again in 2010.  Showing the ability to produce in all five categories, he tops my list for likely members of the 30-30 club in 2010.  Jacoby Ellsbury is a stolen base machine, and he apparently knows it.  He likes to steal, and wants to set milestones.  Expect it to continue in 2010.

Now that Matt Holliday has had a productive season away from Colorado, his price will go back up in 2010.  His power could grow a bit more in 2010, and he even kept up the stolen bases in 2009.  More importantly he still hit over .300.  While not the most flashy pick, he is dependable.  Justin Upton has plenty of upside, but even if he can manage to reach last season’s totals, he is ready to lead your outfield corp.  One red light about Upton is that his BABIP was a little higher than usual in 2009.  Some people may balk at paying full price for Jason Bay in 2010 since he signed to play half his games at Citi-field.  Don’t be one of them.  All he has to do is increase his batting average in 2010 and he will be a bonafide leader of fantasy teams.  The Mets like to use speed on the bases, so even if Bay loses a little of his HR production, he will likely steal more bases.

Second Tier:  Grady Sizemore, Adam Dunn, Curtis Granderson, Manny Ramirez,  Shane Victorino, B.J. Upton, Bobby Abreu, Shin-Soo Choo, Nelson Cruz, Jayson Werth

Several of these players have been in the top tier before, and some may be there after 2010.  Grady Sizemore was a sure top 3 outfield pick in 2009 fantasy baseball drafts and auctions.  Injury ruined his season (along with many fantasy baseball teams).  The Indians are pathetic offensively (if not completely), so his runs and RBI totals may suffer.  However, his power and speed remain intact.  Adam Dunn put together his usual power-heavy season, but finally did so along with a batting average that was not a detriment to fantasy rosters.  It still wasn’t a good batting average, but it was better than usual.  I thought he was over priced before he raised that average in 2009.  In 2010 he will be even more expensive.  Curtis Granderson saw his value jump drastically in this off-season when he was traded from the Tigers to the Yankees.  It remains to be seen where he will hit in the batting order, but wherever it is, it will be better for his fantasy value than anyplace within the city limits of Detroit.  All he needs to do is raise that batting average against left-handed pitching (2009- .183) and he can join the elites in the outfield.  Manny Ramirez is, well, Manny.  I don’t think age is really a factor for him quite yet.  Expect another .300 average with 30ish home runs.  He is in a contract year, so perhaps he will take the game seriously in 2010 and uptick.

Nelson Cruz offered great power and even threw in 20 stolen bases for fantasy owners in 2009.  He figured out minor league pitching, but has needed some time to be effective on the big stage.  Now that he is here, he is not going back.  If he can just get that BB/K rate closer to what he did in 2008, he could be a star.  Note:  Cruz is 30 years old this year, so realize that before paying a premium in keeper-leagues.  Perhaps the most upside in this group is B.J. Upton.  We saw what he could do in his awesome first full season, but it seems he has taken a step back at the plate.  Believers in him took comfort in the fact that despite his drop in batting average and power from 2007 to 2008, his OBP remained almost identical.  In 2009, that OBP dropped by 70 points.  The drop in his 2009 walk rate is undeniable, and should the trend continue this season his supporters will start to fade.  This is the last season I would pay full price for him unless he takes a step forward.  Shin-Soo Choo went 20-20 in 2009.  He was one of only 7 OFs to accomplish that feat.  His production was more than solid, and in no month did he hit lower than he did in May (.274).  His splits against RHP and LHP are good, so it is not likely that he will lose his starting status to some sort of platoon.

Did Jayson Werth finally prove to all his doubters how good he is?  He stayed healthy all year, started all year, and wound up producing numbers that were worth of much more bid money than he went for in 2009 auctions.  Do not expect him to come so cheap this season.  A word of warning about Werth.  His breakout came late (he is 31 this year), so I would not count him among “core” team members that you want to build a keeper team around.  He’s good, but his shelf life is probably not going to be that long.

Third Tier:  Carlos Lee, Carlos Quentin, Nick Markakis, Andre Ethier, Adam Lind, Torii Hunter, Hunter Pence, Nyjer Morgan, Ben Zobrist, Michael Cuddyer, Michael Bourn, Nate McLouth, Adam Jones, Andrew McCutchen, Josh Hamilton, Brad Hawpe, Denard Span, Juan Pierre, Raul Ibanez, Nolan Reimold, Jermaine Dye, Jason Kubel, Ryan Ludwick

Carlos Lee may be boring, but he is money in the bank.  It appears that his power and speed peaked in 2006, but he is still good for solid production in 4 out of the 5 scoring categories.  Do not underestimate how valuable 20-something HRs is with 100 RBI and a .300 BA.  After all, only 13 outfielders hit .300 in 2009.  Of those 13, only 6 of them hit 20 or more HRs, and of those, only 4 also had 100 RBI.  There is value here.  I like Carlos Quentin to rebound in a big way in 2010. When looking at his injuries and numbers in 2009, that may scare away other GMs.  After all, he still has only one really successful season under his belt.  Realize, however, that his AB/HR ratio remained steady in 2009.  Coming into the season healthy should help him move back into the second tier for 2011.  Nick Markakis may be a little overrated.  He has never topped 23 HRs, both his BB rate and his OBP were the lowest of his career in 2009, and his steals total has dropped drastically since his breakout season in 2007.  Beware of spending too much on him.  There is one big difference between Nyjer Morgan and Michael Bourn.  That is:  Nyjer Morgan has a track record with a good batting average, and Bourn does not.  Like the old saying goes, you can’t steal first base.  Bourn’s increase in batting average for the 2009 season was a surprise.  Don’t be surprised if it sinks significantly lower in 2010.

Ben Zobrist is a nice player, but should be taken at one of the infield positions before his name comes up on the outfield depth chart.  Andre Ethier and Adam Lind are in a similar situation.  Both just had a breakout 2009 in which they hit over 30 HRs.  Lind’s breakout could be real if he sticks to what he did in 2009.  He improved his plate discipline in a big way.  His percentage of balls outside the strike zone swung at dropped significantly, and his walk rate increased as a result.  The Blue Jays appear to be in a rebuilding year, so beware that Lind may not have as much support around him in the lineup as you would like.  Andre Ethier got a shot to play every day in 2009 and made the most of it.  While his BB rate went up, so did his K rate.  His BABIP actually was lower in 2009 than 2008, so perhaps that batting average will rise a bit in 2010.  One potential stumbling block for Ethier is that he has trouble with left-handed pitching (BA vs. LHP: 2008- .243, 2009- .194).

Andrew McCutchen is one of those players that people are hoping to slip by as a sleeper, but there is just no way.  He is going to go for big bucks in auctions as GMs hope to grab the next big power/speed threat.  The fact that he is on the Pirates limits his production in runs and RBI.  If you want a lower-key potential breakout, look to Adam Jones.  He could be this season’s power/speed outfielder, and his numbers from 2009 are not as likely to draw the attention of your competition.  Nolan Reimold may break-out in a similar fashion in 2010.  He has a good BB/K rate, and does not swing at too many balls outside of the strike-zone.  He may even steals bases for you.  This spring, monitor the healthy of his recently operated-on Achilles tendon before you draft him.  Don’t go overboard, since he still has to prove he can hit at the major league level, but a modest bid could pay big dividends.

I am not a believer in Josh Hamilton.  When he was young, there was crazy hype surrounded by injuries and mysterious “personal problems”.  He finally dealt with his issues, and had one monster season.  Then, right back to the injuries with worse performance when he did play.  I don’t care about the night he spent in a bar, and do not think that he is much risk to fall into that lifestyle again.  I care about his ability to hit, which is far from proven.  He could have another good season, but some fantasy baseball magazines I have seen rank him as high as a top 10 outfielder.  The price he will bring for the risk he represents is too high.  Juan Pierre is a full-time player again, and his fantasy value will take a huge rebound.  After filling in very nicely for Manny Ramirez during his suspension, the White Sox are going to let him lead off in 2010.  He can still hit and steal bases, but will cost less than the last time he was a full time player.

Fourth Tier:  Chris Coghlan, Alfonso Soriano, Alex Rios, Marlon Byrd, Vernon Wells, Carlos Gonzalez, Jay Bruce, Johnny Damon, Franklin Gutierrez, Magglio Ordonez, Mike Cameron, Corey Hart, J.D. Drew, Garrett Jones, Julio Borbon, Jeff Francoeur, Carlos Gomez, Milton Bradley, Carlos Beltran, Coco Crisp, Chris Young, Josh Willingham, Kyle Blanks, Mark Teahen, Conor Jackson, Elijah Dukes, Mark DeRosa, Melky Cabrera, David Dejesus, Cody Ross, Rajai Davis, Lastings Milledge, Jose Guillen, Juan Rivera, Matt LaPorta

Chris Coghlan is a nice little player.  He will be overrated in 2010 fantasy baseball drafts, and overpriced too.  To read a complete analysis, read Coghlan’s Player Profile.  Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Beltran both appear to be in decline as well as significant injury risks.  Beltran now finds himself in trouble with the Mets due to a recent surgery which could jeopardize his status for opening day.  Do not pay for their names.  Alex Rios has the confidence of manager Ozzie Guillen.  He should play every day, and will likely rebound a good bit.  His reputation (both on and off the field) has taken a beating over the last year, so you may be able to steal him cheap.  Want a cheap option in the outfield that has both power and speed?  Look to Franklin Gutierrez.  He will fly under the radar at fantasy drafts and auctions, but has his playing time locked it, and can serve as an above average 3rd outfielder.  I am very skeptical of Marlon Byrd.  This guy has a fairly long track record, and 2009 was his first truly good season.  While his batting average has made progress over the last few seasons, the power came from nowhere and his BB rate was his lowest since 2002.

Julio Borbon is going to be one of the unproven players in 2010 auctions that goes for big money.  He may, however, be worth it.  He has been announced as a starter for 2010, and his speed and batting average appear to be for real.  He could even throw in above average power for a speedster in Arlington.  Speaking of potential that will cost you, Carlos Gonzalez put up enough of a stat-line that fantasy GMs are not going to look past him.  Highly touted, Gonzalez put up 13 HR and 16 SB in under 300 ABs.  I am hoping that Carlos Gomez will slip under the radar of my competition.  His batting average could be lower than I would like, but if his price matches, I like the upside he offers with a full-time job for the Brewers.  He is crazy fast, but keep your bidding low since his OBP has been under .300 for three straight seasons.  Kyle Blanks is another player who’s 2009 numbers are mediocre enough that he could slip under the radar.  The kid is huge, has huge power, and will start all season.  Sure, the ballpark and supporting cast hurt his numbers, but you aren’t drafting him to be your #1 outfielder.  As a #3 or 4 he should be above average.

Could this be the season that Jay Bruce finally establishes himself as a true fantasy asset?  Yes, I think so.  While the casual fantasy GM will look at the batting average drop he suffered in 2009, the secondary numbers paint a different picture.  His AB/HR ratio went up, his BB/K rate went up, and his BABIP for 2009 was absurdly low (.222).  If those GMs that loved him have soured on him due to his BA, grab him at a discount.  Power galore.  Conor Jackson had a very odd season in 2009.  He was suffering from valley fever, which is a disease caught from the spores of a desert fungi.  Wow.  He is tearing the cover off of the ball in the off-season, and should pick up where he left off in 2008, a potential breakout with a good BA.  He qualifies as a sleeper this year, since he is being ranked very low in many draft prep articles and fantasy baseball rankings.

Chris Young had a miserable 2009, and that continues a trend of bad news.  For two straight years his power has dropped.  For two straight years his batting average has dropped.  For two straight years, his stolen bases have dropped, his K rate has risen, and his OPS has dropped.  These are all very worrying signs.  Strangely, he did post his major league best BB rate in 2009 (though he didn’t use that to steal a single base after the All-Star Break).  He also picked up the pace in September and October, having his best month of the year.  If you can slip him by, he definitely still has good upside, but I would want him to fall into my lap rather than pay more than a couple dollars.

A similar disappointing season was turned in by Elijah Dukes.  This kid has all the talent in the world, but can’t seem to put it all together.  He is seeing fewer fastballs (49.1%-2009 vs. 56.9%-2008) and this helped him put up the worst K rate of his major league career (20.3%).  Another number of note for Dukes in 2009: 3 SB, 10 CS.  Rajai Davis is another player who’s numbers from 2009 will prevent him from having “sleeper” status in 2010 fantasy baseball auctions.  There is no such thing as a sleeper that put up 40+ stolen bases the season before.  I would like to see his K rate get a little better if he is to bat leadoff, but his minor league numbers support his 2009 batting average.

Fifth Tier: Delmon Young, Luke Scott, Aaron Rowand, Xavier Nady, Nick Swisher, Jack Cust, Gerardo Parra, Jake Fox, Garret Anderson, Randy Winn, Ryan Garko, Willy Taveras, Skip Schumaker, Scott Podsednik, Colby Rasmus, Ryan Church, Chris Dickerson, Kosuke Fukudome, Matt Diaz, Jonny Gomes, Carlos Guillen, Travis Snider, Dexter Fowler, Andruw Jones, Rick Ankiel, Brett Gardner

Andruw Jones was at least productive in 2009.  He has a chance to get even more ABs in 2010, and could improve more.  Gerardo Parra will have to play well to receive playing time in what could become a crowded Arizona outfield, but he has upside.  Scott Podsednik still has a little juice left in his legs.  Just don’t forget that 2009 was his first season with over 215 ABs since 2006.  Chris Dickerson improved his BB/K rate in 2009, and could show more power in 2010.  He is a qualified post-hype sleeper pick if he can manage to get the ABs.  Matt Diaz’ batting average against RHP will keep him from ever truly claiming a full-time gig.  Colby Rasmus has power, but his batting average is a concern, especially against lefties.  Dexter Fowler is a nice sleeper.  His numbers against righties are not great, but he smokes lefties, and will start from day one in 2010.

Third Base

——————–

Top Tier: Alex Rodriguez

Despite the fact that Alex Rodriguez did not put up the best numbers at third base in 2009, I still rank him a the top of this position.  He could explode for a monster season in any given year, and should still be considered as one of the top overall fantasy commodities.  He has more power than any other option except for Reynolds, still steals bases, and is a lock for 100 RBI.  Even with all of the quality options in the second tier, none of them is the complete package that is the Almighty A-Rod.

Second Tier: Evan Longoria, Ryan Zimmerman, Kevin Youkilis, Mark Reynolds, David Wright, Pablo Sandoval, Michael Young, Aramis Ramirez, Chone Figgins

Evan Longoria is certainly coming along nicely.  He made nice progress with his BB/K rate in 2009 and should continue to be ranked among the top third basemen for years to come.  But then when you look at Ryan Zimmerman, you realize that he may be almost the same player.  When you look at his stats from 2009, they are every bit as good (if not better) than Evan Longoria’s.  In fact, Longoria and Zimmerman put up an OPS within 2 points of each other in 2009 (Longoria – .890, Zimmerman – .889).  His AB/HR rate is not quite as good as Longoria’s, but if you can get Zimmerman at a discount he could be just as valuable to your fantasy baseball team.  Kevin Youkilis just had his second quality season in a row with an OPS over .900 (2009 – .961 : higher than Longoria or Zimmerman!).  His batting average is very nice, and his AB/HR rate over the last two seasons has been almost identical (2008 – 18.6, 2009 – 18.2 AB/HR).  With the table-setters he has hitting in front of him, expect the RBIs to continue as well.  If your league discounts him at all because he has not actually hit the 30 HR plateu, grab him.

When it comes to Mark Reynolds, you have to remember that no matter how much you bid, or how early you take him, last year’s monster season will not count for 2010.  It can easily be argued that Reynolds should be placed in the top tier after his awesome 2009, but a repeat is nowhere near certain.  It was his first season hitting over 40 HR, so a correction is likely, and I do not think the SBs will last.  For a complete analysis of why I think Reynolds is overrated, see my Overrated Fantasy Hitters article.  Just as I believe that Reynolds’ numbers are likely to regress toward his previous stats, I believe that David Wright is likely to rebound in 2010.  Do I think he will hit 30 HRs while playing half his games in Citi-Field?  No.  But somewhere in the low-to-mid 20s is certainly doable.  A rebound to 20-100-30-90-.310 is not very hard to believe.  I would take that in a second if people sleep on Wright.  I devoted a complete article with stats and analysis as to why.  Click here to read it.

Pablo Sandoval is amazing.  Even when he swings at balls outside the strike zone, Sandoval’s contact rate is over 75%.  If his power grows just a little more he could wind up being something special.  However, the supporting cast in San Francisco and the ballpark are working against his run and RBI totals, so it is worth discounting his price just a dollar or two.  Michael Young’s 2009 stat-line is crazy.  He hit for a career high batting average and had the best AB/HR rate of his career.  Strangely enough, he had his lowest RBI total since 2002.  He rebounded in the second half of the season, having the same number of RBI as in the first half, but in 147 fewer ABs.  He showed that he is not done yet, and someone that can give you 600+ ABs with a batting average around .315 is just huge for your team.

Chone Figgins found a new home on the Mariners, and should keep stealing his bases.  Funny that the one thing the Mariners knew they had was a leadoff hitter (Ichiro) and they signed another one instead of a power bat.  Beware, since they did not have much power, Figgy may not even hit the 100 runs mark in 2010.  Just because Aramis Ramirez only hit 15 HR in 2009, don’t discount him too much.  His AB/HR rate and RBI total were right on target with his career averages.  His batting average remained high (.317), and he even set a new career high in OBP (.389).  If he is healthy, he could easily rebound to be as good as any of these other options in 2010.

Third Tier:  Chipper Jones, Jorge Cantu, Gordon Beckham, Jhonny Peralta, Casey Blake, Adrian Beltre

The third tier may be small, but it is comprised of fairly safe bets.  Will they put up huge numbers?  Most likely not.  However, each of these options are safe enough that you can depend on them to play the entire season (barring injury of course).  Chipper Jones is not the superstar he once was, but should be good for a plus batting average and 20-something home runs.  Jorge Cantu has bounced back from a couple of slow seasons to prove that he is a major league regular.  Jhonny Peralta and Casey Blake are both options that aren’t flashy, but can offer a 20-90 season with a decent batting average.

Gordon Beckham has upside for sure, however he could wind up being the most expensive option in the tier in 2010 fantasy baseball auctions since his upside is so high.  Disclaimer: I have a weakness for Adrian Beltre.  In Boston I feel that he could rebound significantly.  A good lineup around him and a ballpark where he can pull the ball into the Green Monster 60 times a season is just what the doctor ordered for his fantasy value.

Fourth Tier: Casey McGehee, Martin Prado, Placido Polanco, Ian Stewart, Mark Teahen, Jake Fox, Mark DeRosa, Troy Glaus

Unlike the third tier, the guaranteed production in the fourth tier is not above average.  However, there are a few options in this tier possessing enough upside to make them the better choice if they come much cheaper (which many of them will).  I particularly like Casey McGehee.  He showed good power (but not so drastic that your competition will be falling over themselves to get him) and also a very good batting average.  With a solid lineup around him he could develop into nice fantasy asset.  Martin Prado will probably be taken at second base before the players at third are this thin, but he should play all year.  I am a little skeptical about his power, but if cheap he is worth the gamble.

Jake Fox will get his chance to be a full-time player in 2010.  The ballpark is not one I would want my sleeper to play in, but you could do worse at the hot corner.  Troy Glaus will man first base in 2010 for the Braves.  His health will always be an issue, but 20 HR (probably with the usual poor BA) could be yours cheap.  Placido Polanco – steady but mediocre.  I do not expect that Mark DeRosa will hit for as much power as we have come to expect playing half his games in San Francisco.

The Rest: Garrett Atkins, Brandon Inge, Brandon Wood, Chris Davis, Edwin Encarnacion, Ty Wigginton, Jeff Baker, Emilio Bonifacio, Josh Fields, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Chase Headley, David Freese, Alex Gordon

As usual, when we are in the bottom tier, playing time is an issue for many of these options.  The steadier ones may be predictable, but they are unspectacular in their level of production.  Kevin Kouzmanoff, Chase Headley, and Ty Wigginton are the safest of these options, but none possess a large amount of upside.  Headley has put up two seasons where his numbers were very similar after accounting for the difference in ABs.  The Padres do not have much hitting outside of Adrian Gonzalez (and maybe Kyle Blanks), so a large jump in RBI or runs is doubtful.  However, he should gain over 500 ABs as a regular starter.  Ty Wigginton is a perennial waiver-wire pickup that has to fight for playing time every year, but usually winds up posting numbers that can be helpful to a fantasy team.  In 2009, his numbers took a hit, as he posted half the number of HRs for which he is usually dependable.   Much like Headley, Kouzmanoff could wind up playing all year, but his fantasy numbers are less than excellent.  He does possess some power, but his OBP and batting average have not shown any improvement over the last three seasons.  The best thing that could happen to his fantasy value would be a trade out of San Diego.

Everyone loved Chris Davis for 2009.  In my two keeper leagues, he was protected for way more than I would have considered smart.  He has plenty of power, but strikes out a ton and may have playing time issues in 2010.  Garrett Atkins could recover from his awful 2009, but leaving Colorado is not a formula for a hitter to improve.  Expect a slight recovery, but not a resurgence back to his prime.  Even if Brandon Inge is able to duplicate the power he showed in 2009, that batting average is brutal.  He can’t hit lefties.  Josh Fields does offer some upside in 2010 if he can win some playing time.  Alex Gordon also has upside, but with the current makeup of the Royals’ roster, he and Gordon could be fighting for one position if David Dejesus holds onto the left field job.  The sleeper of the bunch is Brandon Wood.  Sure, everyone knows his name because he has been a sleeper for years.  However, it looks like the Angels feel he is ready for a full time job.  They said the same thing about Kendry Morales last season and look at the results.  If you get down this low without a third baseman, you may as well go for the upside.

First Base

—————-

Top Tier : Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, Mark Teixeira

It would be very easy to put Albert Pujols in this tier by himself.  After all, in 99% of fantasy baseball rankings in the world, Pujols will be the overall most valuable player.  There is no need to say anything more than that about the best fantasy commodity in baseball.  Miguel Cabrera is a huge season waiting to happen.  This kid actually reminds me a great deal of Pujols.  He broke into the league at a young age and started producing from day one.  He also has never had what you can call a “bad” season.  He hits for power, drives in runs, and his batting average is awesome.  The only thing Pujols offers that he does not is speed.  Cabrera is that magic age of 27 years old this season.  The other three choices are also fine additions to your team that will provide the offensive power and run production that you can build your team around.

Ryan Howard’s batting average is usually not as good as the other options in the first tier, but his RBI total year to year is awesome.  Prince Fielder has as much power as any of these names, but his final line varies a bit from season to season (HR TOTALS:  2007 – 50, 2008 – 36, 2009 – 46).  If you draft him in a season where he puts it all together, you get one of the best fantasy players in the game.  Finally, we come to Mark Teixeira.  He has power (though has not broken the 40 HR mark in several seasons) and his batting average is consistently high.  If he can just start hitting during April like he does later in the season, he could be a top 10 player (he is a notoriously slow starter).

Second Tier : Justin Morneau, Adrian Gonzalez, Joey Votto, Kevin Youkilis, Kendry Morales, Adam Dunn, Derrek Lee

These options at first base are all quality that you can draft for a cheaper price, but can put up production that help your team greatly.  All, however, have some flaw that keep them out of that top tier.  The name on this list that people are most often going to point to as belonging in the top tier is Adrian Gonzalez.  Coming off of his first 40 HR season, his owners love his ability.  I do too.  What keeps him out of the top tier is two-fold.  Firstly, his batting average and RBI total from year to year is not in the upper echelon of the position.  He has not had a BA over .282 in the last three seasons, and in two of those three seasons his RBI total was under 101.  Also, his ballpark and supporting cast are working against him repeating the power he showed, and his RBI total improving much.  He is quality, but since his price in your auction is likely to be as high as the previous tier, you should let him pass your team by.

Justin Morneau is another name that often is ranked with the top names at first base.  Sure, he puts together a good season now and again, but his final stat line is very different from season to season.  One year he will hit .271, then the next year he will hit .300.  One year he will hit 31 HR, the next he will hit 23.  Even his RBI total varies greatly, ranging from 100 to 129 over the last three seasons.  This unpredictability keeps him in the second tier.  Joey Votto is one of the up-and-comers at first base.  He hit everything that moved in the first half of 2009, with a .351 batting average.  Even in the second half when he cooled off to only .300, his power levels remained just as high as in the first half.  If he can maintain that batting average and power levels (and stay on the field for 550 ABs) he could join the upper level as soon as 2011.

Everyone knows that Adam Dunn has great power, and usually has a bad batting average.  It is that batting average that keeps him in the second tier year after year.  I will not raise him up to the top level because he brought that average up to .267 last season.  Derrek Lee is old, and his resurgent 2009 is no reason to pay the price as though he was back in his prime.  Lee, to me, is one of those players that GMs are going to massively overpay for in 2010 fantasy drafts and auctions.  See my Overrated Fantasy Hitters article for details.  Kendry Morales was a great pickup last season, but I would like to see him repeat those numbers (and boost that runs total) before he is ranked any higher.  I would also like to see him hit better while batting right-handed.  There is a good argument to put him in the third tier instead of the second.

Third Tier : Pablo Sandoval, Victor Martinez, Lance Berkman, Carlos Pena, Billy Butler

There is good upside in this tier.  Both Pablo Sandoval and Billy Butler could take steps forward in 2010 which would seriously upgrade their ranking.  Sandoval swings at everything he sees, but keeps that batting average high.  Butler’s surrounding cast limits his run production upside, and he has yet to show more than 20-something HR power.  He is, however, country strong and a 30 HR season is possible.  Victor Martinez will go for too much bid money or too high a draft pick to use at first base.  Someone will use him at catcher, where is is indeed worth much more.  Carlos Pena sure has power, but that batting average will cost your team some points.  Be careful paying to much for just the HR category.  Poor Big Puma.  Lance Berkman has been very inconsistent over the seasons, and the wheels just completely came off the bus is 2009.  With his lowest RBI and HR total since 2005, Berkman’s price is sure to be reduced in 2010.  I would love to grab him at this reduced price, since he has recovered from similarly poor seasons in his past with monster years the next.

Fourth Tier : James Loney, Jorge Cantu, Paul Konerko, Jose Lopez, Adam LaRoche, Martin Prado, Todd Helton, Garrett Jones, Nick Johnson, Aubrey Huff, Michael Cuddyer,Chris Davis

Look at all this quality talent still around after the “top” 17 options are off the board.  There are really two fantasy baseball strategies for drafting first basemen.  You can use an early draft pick or lots of bid money on a top slugger that will put up huge numbers.  Or you can wait many rounds and pay much less for a player that will produce good-but-not-great numbers, while drafting better players at thiner positions.  If you chose the second strategy, make sure that you get a first baseman that is no lower than this tier.  There are plenty of guys here that will hit you 20ish home runs with a decent batting average and 90ish RBI.  Are they superstars?  No.  However, if you draft someone with that early pick (or large bid) at a thin position (like 2B) that is a superstar and combine their numbers with one of these mediocre 1B options, you can break even with a team that uses the inverse strategy.  Let’s hit the highlights of this tier.

James Loney is consistent, but has failed to take a significant step forward since establishing a baseline of production.  Jorge Cantu has defied the odds to make a nice comeback after two down seasons.  At this point, it appears as though his numbers are reliable though not spectacular.  Garrett Jones is sure to top many fantasy baseball sleeper lists for the 2010.  After hitting 21 home runs in only 314 ABs, plenty of knowledgeable GMs are going to be willing to wait on a first baseman counting on drafting Jones later.

Michael Cuddyer is sure to draw skepticism from fantasy GMs this season.  However, this kid was highly touted when coming into the big leagues, and his numbers were consistent in a month-to-month breakdown of 2009.  While 34 home runs may be a bit much to expect again from Cuddyer in 2010, he is a solid player that can help your team if you grab him late.  Martin Prado is a lower-profile sleeper that has some upside.  Don’t wait too long though, because he does qualify at thiner positions than first base and could be taken at second or third base if you sleep on him.  Do I have to tell you that Nick Johnson is an injury risk?  Jose Lopez was one of only two Mariners that hit more than 20 home runs in 2009.  Like Prado, Lopez can be taken at 2B as well.  Chris Davis was last year’s hot pickup that was overpaid for in leagues everywhere.  Don’t let that be you again this year.  Power potential is great, but a certain bad batting average is awful.  Until he proves he can stick around in the show, contain your excitement (and your bid).

The Rest : Garrett Atkins, Carlos Delgado, Mark DeRosa (10), Mark Teahen (11), Ty Wigginton, Nick Swisher, Hank Blalock, Luke Scott, Russell Branyan, Mike Jacobs, Ryan Garko, Daniel Murphy, Lyle Overbay, Jeff Clement

While there is still upside present in this final tier, you are looking at some longer odds for a breakthrough power season.  In fact, when you get this low in the tiers playing time could start to be an issue.  I am personally not a Chris Davis fan.  There is no questioning that the kid has power, but that walk rate is terrible and the strikeouts come in bunches.  The quickest way for a touted hitter to turn into a fantasy bust is for him to strike out a ton and walk very little.  Garrett Atkins could rebound after a terrible 2009, but how often does a player get better after leaving Colorado?  Carlos Delgado is still looking for a job at the time of this posting, and his age and poor 2009 are working against his fantasy value.  Russell Branyan looked like a resurgence was coming in 2009, but injury derailed his attempt.  I would not bet on such quality production happening again.  Jeff Clement has been jerked around for many seasons, and that could still happen in the crowded first base picture on the Pirates.  Mark DeRosa’s breakout came fairly late in his career.  In that pitcher’s ballpark surrounded by a mediocre cast I doubt his numbers will be as good as in his recent past.