Q:  Is Francisco Liriano’s good off-season performance going to continue against big league hitters?

Francisco Liriano is sure to be on many 2010 fantasy baseball sleeper lists.  His phenomenal potential which he displayed in 2006 is not going to just be forgotten.  Though his numbers in 2009 were awful, smart and attentive GMs will know that he has been throwing very well this off-season.  Reportedly hitting 95 mph, he posted a .186 BAA with a 1.54 ERA and .86 WHIP in the Dominican Winter League.  Now, we have to be aware that Liriano’s winter ball numbers are an extremely small sample size (11.7 IN).  Every pitcher goes through stretches where they seem to be untouchable, and certainly 12 innings is not enough to decide that Liriano is back to form.  However, if he comes into spring training and starts putting up similar ratios against tougher competition, he could be a gem for those of us that have paid close enough attention.

Q:  Is Brandon Wood ready to hit at the major league level?

I have been waiting for Brandon Wood to get a legitimate shot at a starting job for several seasons now.  It is very likely that you have been too.  However, you have to be aware that when he popped onto our radars, the picture we had in our heads was of a 40+ home run hitting shortstop.  Now that he will be playing third base, part of that value is gone.  Also, his K/BB rate has seen little progress in his limited major league ABs.  With the starting job all but handed to him for 2010, this spring should give us a little view of what could be coming.  If he continues to strike out much more than walk, I will greatly reduce the price I am willing to pay.  If he makes some progress, I would bump him up on my sleeper list.

Q:  Was David Ortiz’ power outage an aberration or the beginnings of a decline?

When talking purely about power, spring training is not really something for which we are going to get a definitive answer.  After all, many of the ABs that David Ortiz will receive this spring will be against pitchers that are not ready to face major league hitters.  A couple of 85 mph fastballs at the wrong time could result in home runs that taint the sample we get to see from a power hitter.  Supposedly, Ortiz has been pulling the ball more in recent seasons, and an opposite field approach could help his numbers.  With a failed PED test, there is reason to believe that hitting the ball to left field is not the real reason his power numbers have dropped.

Q:  Will Grady Sizemore return to put up numbers close to his past 30-30 performance?

With two separate surgeries in 2009, I am willing to chalk Grady Sizemore’s poor numbers up to injury.  Yet, a smart fantasy GM will have to accept that the risk of injury is increased.  Also, it is very possible that there could be some residual decline due to last year’s problems.  A elbow injury could continue to affect his power, and a groin injury could keep him from running as much.  This is in addition to the fact that the Indians are offensively terrible.  A reduction in the number of runs he will score should be assumed.  With Sizemore moving to the second slot in the batting order, his RBI total may improve, but that is far from assured.  He is young enough to return to elite status, but fantasy GMs should be a little skeptical until they see him playing without restriction.

Q:  How will Matt LaPorta find the ABs he needs to break-out in 2010?

The addition of Russell Branyan has put a haze around the role of one of 2010’s biggest fantasy baseball sleepers.  When Branyan first signed, I along with most baseball people assumed that he would be filling a part time or DH role.  However, Manny Acta said that Branyan has the inside track on the starting first base job.  Most of us assumed that Matt LaPorta would get the shot that we have been waiting for him to get.  Now it appears as though he will either have to win a job in the outfield (likely at the expense of Michael Brantley) or have Branyan stumble early to get a full season of ABs.  Personally, I am skeptical that Branyan can stay both healthy and effective for long stretches of time, so LaPorta should get his shot.

Q:  What the heck is the Royals starting lineup going to look like?

This is not an easy question, as their roster contains a ton of players that have been starters in the past, and also many players that have the potential to be better than those starters.  Players such as Rick Ankiel, Alberto Callaspo, Yuniesky Betancourt, and David Dejesus have held starting jobs before.  They had better produce, however, because the off-season has seen the addition of Josh Fields and Chris Getz.  That, combined with the return of Mike Aviles, could drastically change that starting lineup.  Another large question is how much faith they have in Alex Gordon.  With Fields able to play both third base and the outfield (not that his defense is very good at either position), there are not many players other than Billy Butler that should feel their job is safe.

Q:  Is Alfonso Soriano’s knee healthy?

You should get the visions of a return to 40-40 form out of your head right now (even 30-30 is just ridiculous).  With the injuries Alfonso Soriano has suffered, it is unclear how much of the decline in his numbers is due to those ailments and how much is due to an eroding skill set.  Having a bad knee certainly reduces his stolen base potential, and it is not hard to imagine that it has drained part of his power as well.  Reports out of Cubs camp are that his knee is not yet 100%, but it is better than it was last season.  The question is how much better, and will he be able to make a rebound in 2010?  Spring training could give us a little insight into how much he will be worth (or should be discounted) in 2010 fantasy baseball auctions and drafts.  At the least we should see how healthy he really is.

Q:  Who will win the starting center-field job for the Reds?

I briefly covered this situation in the latest Quick Fix article.  While no one will deny that Chris Dickerson has the tools to develop into a quality major league hitter, Drew Stubbs greatly outperformed him when given the chance in 2009.  Dusty Baker has come forward and said that Stubbs deserves to play because of that performance.  If Dickerson can prove that he has rediscovered the power that left him last year, he could push the issue.  However, at this point it seems that Stubbs is the frontrunner.

Q:  Will Jay Bruce learn to hit lefties?

The reality is that the spring will probably not give us enough information to answer this question, but you should be aware that this is the major stumbling block Jay Bruce has met with in his young career.  We all know that he has massive power potential in his bat, but that alone is not enough to justify the large price which he is sure to command.  After hitting .190 against lefties in 2008 and .210 in 2009, he still has work to do in order to keep his overall BA from hurting fantasy teams.  That said, he proved that he can hit in the minor leagues, and is still young enough to have those skills translate into major league ability.

Ben Sheets  (SP – OAK) –  Sheets is telling anyone that will listen that he is 100% healthy this season.  While this is normal talk for an injury prone player like Sheets, this is also the type of player that can help you win the league.  He has no stats from 2009 for your competition to see, so he could fly right under their radar.  Even if there are a few members of your league that are watching him this spring, they will likely be hesitant to bid more than a few dollars in order to land him.  Lemme give you another name that was very similar to Sheets’s situation in 2009… Chris Carpenter.  That worked out pretty well for those GMs that took the gamble on him.  If Sheet’s velocity is where it should be late in the spring, I will gamble on him for the right price.

Josh Hamilton  (OF – TEX) –  Shoulder problems last year, and already a shoulder contusion this spring.  For the most part, his story makes you want to root for him.  His career year in 2008 was awesome, but has to be put in context.  That was two years ago, after many years of his talent being wasted.  He is not some 22 year old superstar.  He is 29 years old, and an injury risk.  Root for him, but don’t pay as though he is going to be a core member of your keeper league for years.

Octavio Dotel  (RP – PIT) –  He is the favorite to start the season closing games for the Pirates, so he has to be on your radar.  Here is the skinny.  He has met with some success throughout his career, and has put up the occasional great season.  Yet he has not been able to hold down the closer’s role for long stretches whether due to injury or ineffectiveness.  Now 36 years old, this could easily be his last chance to hold a role this significant (and perhaps extend his career a couple of years).  His ERA in 2009 was great, but his K/9 rate dropped from 12.86 down to 10.83 (which is still by all means respectable), and his BB/9 rate went up from 3.9 to 5.2.  The lack of other good options should give him a nice long leash, but don’t be surprised if that leash eventually runs out.  Also note that he is dealing with some side soreness, which is not the start he was looking for.

Stephen Strasburg (SP – WAS) –  If you watch as much ESPN as I do, you have probably heard the story on this kid.  He is supposedly awesome, and Pudge Rodrigeuz recently threw his two cents in about Strasburg to the media.  When asked if Strasburg has stuff similar to Justin Verlander, he said that Nolan Ryan was a closer comparison.  That type of comment obviously has to be taken with a grain of salt, but it is exactly the type of thing that make fantasy baseball GMs drool about a player, and thus overpay for him.  The story I like even better is how Strasburg’s nickname is evolving.  Supposedly they are calling him “Jesus”, because when hitters make their out against him they walk away muttering, “Jesus!”.  Be careful reaching for Strasburg in your fantasy baseball draft or auction.  While the Nationals do need starters pretty badly, there is just no telling how much (or little) time in the majors he will get.

Mike Napoli  (C – LAA) –  Mike Napoli may get it.  He is working on his defense, apparently switching to a bigger glove.  Napoli has tremendous power, and has managed to keep him batting average high enough not to hurt fantasy teams.  His lack of ABs over the last three years is the only reason he is not considered among the elite catchers.  If his defense can improve to the point where Mike Scioscia can trust him for 120-130 games, he could be one of the big fantasy baseball breakouts of 2010.  Of course, a bigger glove is not going to help him call a better game for his pitchers.  It remains to be seen if it is an issue of his pitch calling or actually catching the ball that is the major part of the problem.

Francisco Liriano  (SP – MIN) –  Early reports are good, as was his stint in the Dominican League over the winter.  He says he feels like he is getting back into his rookie year form.  While I am not willing to pay as though that is certain, I could easily believe that he can make enough comeback to make a modest bid worth while.  Since his 2009 numbers were not very good, he is similar to Ben Sheets in that his profile should be fairly low.

Michael Brantley  (OF – CLE) –  My pick for A.L. ROY’s chances to actually win the award took a big hit yesterday when Russell Branyan was said to be the front runner for the starting first base job.  Such a move would put 2010 fantasy baseball sleeper Matt LaPorta into the outfield, and put uber-sleeper Brantley in AAA.  It remains to be seen if Branyan can stay effective and healthy at the same time, so don’t give up on Brantley quite yet.  He now he needs either LaPorta or Branyan to fail in order to get the ABs he needs.  He has the ability to step up should the opportunity to win a job present itself.

Chone Figgins  (3B? – SEA) –  I have been doing a lot of stat trivia on Twitter lately, and I keep coming across Figgins’ name.  He had a great year last season.  He was the only player in the majors that walked at least 100 times and stole over 20 bases in 2009.  His OBP was almost .400, and he stole over 30 bases for the 6th straight season.  However, the reason that I am writing about him today is that the Mariners are considering moving him to second base.  An excellent defender at third, I would be surprised if this actually happened.  Yet his 2010 fantasy baseball value would take a huge jump should they make this move official.

A.L. ROY – Michael Brantley –  Will win the job, hit for average, steal bases.

N.L. ROY – Jason Heyward – Should be starting from the beginning of the season.

A.L. Cy Young – Zach Greinke (second place – Felix Hernandez) That’s right, folks.  He is for real.

N.L. Cy Young – Tim Lincecum (second place – Dan Haren) Haren finally puts it together in the second half, but The Freak is just too good.

A.L. Fantasy MVP – Ian Kinsler –  I am a believer that he can get that batting average.

N.L. Fantasy MVP – Albert Pujols –  How can anyone deny this?

A.L. Hitter Breakout – Adam Jones –  If he can keep that left foot healthy, he should thrive.

N.L. Hitter Breakout – Jay Bruce –  Gotta figure out the lefties, but 3rd time is the charm.

A.L. Pitcher Breakout - Matt Garza –  K rate spiked in 2009, wins should follow.

N.L. Pitcher Breakout – Clayton Kershaw –  So young, and ready to join the elite.

A.L. Hitter Most Overpaid for – Aaron Hill –  Don’t you believe that 30 HRs are assured.

N.L. Hitter Most Overpaid for –  Mark Reynolds –  Too much room for doubt.  Only sure thing is a bad BA.

A.L. Pitcher Most Overpaid for – Javier Vazquez –  A.L., ballpark working against ratios.

N.L. Pitcher Most Overpaid for – Ubaldo Jimenez –  Too wild.

A.L. Shakiest Closer (with job now) – Brian Fuentes –  Most saves in 2009, terrible WHIP, Angels signed Rodney.

N.L. Shakiest Closer (with job now) – Brandon Lyon – What were the Astros thinking?

A.L. Bargain Closer – Rafael Soriano –  Health is the only risk here.

N.L. Best Bargain Closer – Billy Wagner –  Wasn’t really in any decline before injury.

A.L. Best Save Vulture – Fernando Rodney –  Only a matter of time…

N.L. Best Save Vulture – Jason Motte –  Franklin’s numbers way beyond career averages.  Motte spits fire.

A.L. Comeback Player – Adrian Beltre –  Change to a good team in a better park while healthy should make him a bargain.

N.L. Comeback Player – Brandon Webb –  Best sinker in the game.

A.L. Sleeper to Watch – Clay Buchholz –  4 pitches and now a bit of seasoning.  Sounds a lot like Greinke.

N.L. Sleeper to Watch – Kyle Blanks –  Big man, big power, showed up in shape.

A.L. Take a Flyer on – Brandon Wood –  This could finally be the time..

N.L. Take a Flyer on – Eric Young Jr. –  Speed to burn, gotta find a place to play.

UNDER/OVER

18 HRS for David Wright - OVER (22)

.300 BA for Jason Bartlett – UNDER (.290)

28 HRs for Joe Mauer – UNDER (22)

180 IN for Chris Carpenter – OVER (210)

30 Saves for Rafael Soriano – OVER (37)

50 SBs for Nyjer Morgan – OVER (52)

4.0 ERA for Javier Vazquez – OVER (4.30)

400 ABs for Mike Napoli – OVER (460)

4.0 Post All-Star Break ERA for Dan Haren – UNDER (3.30)

Michael Brantley  (OF – CLE) –  Brantley has recently been announced as the frontrunner for the Indians left field starting job.  There is good reason for this, and for you to know his name when your fantasy baseball draft or auction rolls around.  When your competition looks at their fantasy baseball magazines (most of them waiting until the week before the draft to do so), they are going to see a snapshot of his production that does not match up with his skills.  In 2009 Brantley recorded 112 ABs with no power at all, 4 SBs, a .313 batting average, and 19 Ks compared to 8 BBs.  The only number in this line that actually can be expected to continue is the batting average.  That K rate (17.0%) is substantially higher than what he consistently produced in the minors, and the BB/9 rate (6.6%) is significantly lower.  In the minors, Brantley’s worst BB rate was 10.4% and ranged up to 13.0%.  The K rate he produced in the minors was never higher than 13.4% in 2007, and was as low as 6.4% in 2008.  In his entire minor league career, he never recorded an OBP that was lower than .350 in any stop.

It is natural, in fact it is common, for minor leaguers that get the call to the bigs to struggle in their first shot at the best pitchers in the world.  However, Brantley has shown that he understands the strike zone, and even in his short big league stint put up a 91.4% contact rate.  These stats are very encouraging.  While he will not hit for power, his speed is for real as shown by his 46 SBs in AAA during the 2009 season.  His success rate was equally impressive as he was only caught stealing 5 times.  If he hits well this spring and secures that starting job, look for him to put up speed numbers that can help your team well beyond the cost that it will take to land him in your draft.

Jason Heyward  (OF – ATL) –  Here is a name that the casual fantasy baseball GM may miss entirely.  With no major league stats to look at, it takes an informed GM to know that Heyward is one of the best minor league prospects in the game.  Bobby Cox recently stated that Heyward could break camp with the big club, and this would be consistent with his fast rise through the minor league system.  In 2008, Heyward started the season in A-ball with 189 ABs where he hit 11 HRs and 15 SBs, with a .323 BA, a .388 OBP, and a .66 BB/K rate in 449 ABs.  In 2009 he started the season in A+ ball, where his excellent production continued, posting a line of 10 HR and 4 SBs, with a .296 BA, a .360 OBP, and a BB/K rate of .70 in 189 ABs.  After that he was promoted to the AA level, and he did not slow down at all.  In 162 ABs at that level, the power continued with 7 HRs, the speed continued with 5 SBs, the average continued at .352, and his improvement to his BB/K rate took a jump up to 1.47 in 162 ABs.

All of these signs show a player that understands the strike zone, has the power to contribute at the major league level, and can steal a base or two in the process.  As a low-profile player with no major league stats to look at, he could be cheap enough to be the fantasy baseball sleeper that every team is looking for.  Keep track of this situation in the spring, as Heyward only has to beat out Matt Diaz to win a significant amount of playing time in 2010.  Since Diaz tends to struggle versus right-handed pitching, Heyward forcing his way into the picture is a good gamble.  On a side note, this kid is huge at 6′4″ and could develop significantly more power going forward.

Everth Cabrera  (SS – SD) –  This sleeper is a little higher-profile than the first two since he recorded 377 ABs with the Padres in 2009.  However, the stat line that he produced in that time was below what Cabrera is capable of, and some of the numbers he posted could even scare away some GMs.  Needless to say, any sleeper at shortstop is worthy of your attention and consideration.  Cabrera does have a few flaws in his game.  His K rate is too high, and his BB rate is too low.  Yet the potential is there for Cabrera to completely blow away the numbers he posted in 2009.

Firstly, the starting job is his.  There is no question that barring injury Cabrera will be a full-time starter in 2010.  Secondly, the numbers that he posted in his short minor league career point to abilities that he did not show in 2009.  While other GMs are focused on his .255 BA in 2009, you should focus on the fact that he had only 50 ABs above A-Ball before being called up to the big leagues.  In his last “full” season in the minors (Rockies-A), Cabrera’s BB/9 rate was actually lower than it was in the big leagues, and while his K rate was higher, it was in the same ballpark as his stint in the bigs.  It is also worthy of note that while that .255 BA from 2009 was not desirable, his OBP was .342 which is very respectable (also, his BABIP during his big league ABs was the lower than any stint in his minor league career).

While other GMs focus on the fact that Cabrera only stole 25 bases while being caught 8 times in 2009, you should focus on the fact that Cabrera stole 73 bases in the minors during the 2008 season and was caught only 16 times.  He has speed to burn.  Oh, and did I mention that this kid is only 23 years old?  Sure, his supporting cast and ballpark are working against his power, RBI, and runs scored.  Yet when talking about a speedster, you are looking for help in the SB and BA category, both of which Cabrera could offer your team for a fraction of the price that a Ryan Theriot or Asdrubal Cabrera will cost.  Finding a sleeper in the outfield is great, as Brantley and Heyward could be.  However, finding a sleeper at a thinner position such as shortstop is what can win you a league.  Follow Everth’s progress this spring, and hope that he doesn’t steal so many bases that his low-profile status is blown.