A.L. ROY – Michael Brantley –  Will win the job, hit for average, steal bases.

N.L. ROY – Jason Heyward – Should be starting from the beginning of the season.

A.L. Cy Young – Zach Greinke (second place – Felix Hernandez) That’s right, folks.  He is for real.

N.L. Cy Young – Tim Lincecum (second place – Dan Haren) Haren finally puts it together in the second half, but The Freak is just too good.

A.L. Fantasy MVP – Ian Kinsler –  I am a believer that he can get that batting average.

N.L. Fantasy MVP – Albert Pujols –  How can anyone deny this?

A.L. Hitter Breakout – Adam Jones –  If he can keep that left foot healthy, he should thrive.

N.L. Hitter Breakout – Jay Bruce –  Gotta figure out the lefties, but 3rd time is the charm.

A.L. Pitcher Breakout - Matt Garza –  K rate spiked in 2009, wins should follow.

N.L. Pitcher Breakout – Clayton Kershaw –  So young, and ready to join the elite.

A.L. Hitter Most Overpaid for – Aaron Hill –  Don’t you believe that 30 HRs are assured.

N.L. Hitter Most Overpaid for –  Mark Reynolds –  Too much room for doubt.  Only sure thing is a bad BA.

A.L. Pitcher Most Overpaid for – Javier Vazquez –  A.L., ballpark working against ratios.

N.L. Pitcher Most Overpaid for – Ubaldo Jimenez –  Too wild.

A.L. Shakiest Closer (with job now) – Brian Fuentes –  Most saves in 2009, terrible WHIP, Angels signed Rodney.

N.L. Shakiest Closer (with job now) – Brandon Lyon – What were the Astros thinking?

A.L. Bargain Closer – Rafael Soriano –  Health is the only risk here.

N.L. Best Bargain Closer – Billy Wagner –  Wasn’t really in any decline before injury.

A.L. Best Save Vulture – Fernando Rodney –  Only a matter of time…

N.L. Best Save Vulture – Jason Motte –  Franklin’s numbers way beyond career averages.  Motte spits fire.

A.L. Comeback Player – Adrian Beltre –  Change to a good team in a better park while healthy should make him a bargain.

N.L. Comeback Player – Brandon Webb –  Best sinker in the game.

A.L. Sleeper to Watch – Clay Buchholz –  4 pitches and now a bit of seasoning.  Sounds a lot like Greinke.

N.L. Sleeper to Watch – Kyle Blanks –  Big man, big power, showed up in shape.

A.L. Take a Flyer on – Brandon Wood –  This could finally be the time..

N.L. Take a Flyer on – Eric Young Jr. –  Speed to burn, gotta find a place to play.

UNDER/OVER

18 HRS for David Wright - OVER (22)

.300 BA for Jason Bartlett – UNDER (.290)

28 HRs for Joe Mauer – UNDER (22)

180 IN for Chris Carpenter – OVER (210)

30 Saves for Rafael Soriano – OVER (37)

50 SBs for Nyjer Morgan – OVER (52)

4.0 ERA for Javier Vazquez – OVER (4.30)

400 ABs for Mike Napoli – OVER (460)

4.0 Post All-Star Break ERA for Dan Haren – UNDER (3.30)

Catcher

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Jorge Posada (NYY) –  There is no question that he is getting up there in age.  He also has recent injury history that makes him a risk.  However he will remain a starter on one of the most powerful offensive lineups in the league.  There are just better options that could break through and remain better for longer than Posada.  I would rather focus my attention on a longer-term option.  They will also likely be cheaper.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $12

Miguel Montero (ARI) –  I had Montero on my team last season, and he was a pleasure.  In 234 second-half ABs, Montero hit 11 HR with 40 RBI and a .316 batting average.  While many of your competition will focus on the big-hype Matt Wieters, if you can keep Montero for the right price, he could be a gem.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $14

Mike Napoli (LAA) -  This guy is a tease.  In the last two seasons, he has hit 40 home runs in only 609 ABs.  While this number is about a full season of ABs for the normal position player, as we know, catchers average closer to 500.  Either way, the power Napoli offers cannot be denied.  A “full” season for him of 500 ABs would probably result in 30+ HRs.  Napoli has also seemed to get his batting average up to acceptable levels (though his BABIP has risen every season of his career).  The problem with Napoli is that he just doesn’t play enough to get a full season.  Mike Scioscia likes to mix it up behind the plate, perhaps due to Napoli’s below-average defense.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $13

Russell Martin (LAD) –  What was once a no-brain protect has dropped dramatically in value.  Once, he was the best power/speed option at the position (and he still may be).  However, an across the board drop in all scoring categories for a second straight season should keep the bidding on Martin low.  He could easily have a resurgence in 2010, but don’t pay to keep him as though it is certain.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $9

Matt Wieters (BAL) - Don’t overpay for the hype.  He certainly can hit.  He has some power.  But he is still very young, and the power that would make him the keeper we are looking for may take some time to develop.  Keep in mind how long it took for Joe Mauer to find his pop.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $11

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First Base

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Paul Konerko (CWS) –  Don’t expect a rebound to his previous power and batting average levels.  For that matter, don’t pay for his name.  His line-drive rate has dropped significantly, his fly-ball rate was a career high in 2009, and his RBIs have been very disappointing over the last two seasons.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $10

Carlos Pena (TB) –  Prodigious power, a low batting average.  Pena has hit 46, 31,39 home runs respectively in the last three seasons.  Even more impressive is that he did so in under 500 ABs in each season.  That batting average, however, has gone from good, to bad, to awful, in those three seasons as well.  There is some hope of recovery since Pena’s BABIP in 2009 was .253.  That is over 50 points lower than in 2007 and 2008, and over 100 points lower than in 2006.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $19

Lance Berkman (HOU) –  I have owned Berkman in two different keeper leagues over the last several seasons.  Last season I had enough.  I traded him away in both leagues, and am not looking back.  It is not that I don’t believe he can be valuable, because he still can.  What is frustrating is not being able to predict what kind of season he will have.  His power in the first half of 2009 was great, hitting 18 HRs.  Yet for the second season, his second half saw his fantasy value tank.  He is just too inconsistent.  Not to mention, his supporting cast is not as strong as it used to be in his glory days.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $23

Billy Butler (KC) –  If you are going to keep a player based on upside rather than proven production, do so at one of the thiner positions where a true breakout will be much more valuable.  Billy Butler is a nice player, and could hit .300 and approach 30 home runs in 2010.  However, he has not proven to be worthy of reaching for, and certainly not paying top dollar for.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $13

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Second Base

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Dan Uggla (FLA) –  At second base, there are no-brainers and there are non-protects.  There are very few “bubble guys”.  Uggla will be seen in many leagues to be a no-brain protect.  He is, after all, a great source of power for a middle infielder.  The batting average is a strike against him, but so long as you aren’t paying the same price for him as for the elite at the position, you should keep him.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $23

Gordon Beckham (CWS) –  Now switching to second base for the 2010 season, Beckham sees added fantasy value.  With power potential and speed enough to steal bases, Beckham will be overpriced in auctions based on his upside.  If you have him in a keeper league and can keep him for a low price, don’t even think about letting him go.  You will not get him back for anywhere near the single digit price you probably have him for.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $19

Ben Zobrist (TB) –  I like this kid.  His numbers are on the upswing and he offers production in at least 4 of the 5 scoring categories.  However, like all players, it is safer to pay top dollar after establishing a track record for more than one season.  Bump his value up a couple of dollars if the 13 games he played at shortstop in 2009 qualifies him in your league.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $21

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Third Base

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Chone Figgins (SEA) –  The stolen bases are nice.  But going from the Angels to the Mariners hurts Figgy’s value.  It remains to be seen where he will bat in the order (my guess is second), and may struggle to reach 100 runs in 2010.  He offers little power (even less now at Safeco) and his batting average is all over the map from one season to another.  At best a three category contributor.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $21

Pablo Sandoval (SF) –  I nearly didn’t put him in this “bubble” category because it is common knowledge that this kid can rake.  I would keep him in a heartbeat, and expect good power with a very good batting average.  On the weak hitting Giants, he will probably hit in the heart of the order.  MAX PROTECT PRICE $25

Ian Stewart (COL) –  I am not a fan of keeping young players who’s power makes them attractive while their batting average is low.  It is that kind of player that goes for too much bid money, and could wind up losing playing time.  Stewart falls into that category.  He was not a high batting average guy in the minors, and there is no reason to believe that he will just become one in the big leagues.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $12

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Shortstop

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Jason Bartlett (TB) –  Perhaps the biggest (if not most unexpected) fantasy baseball breakout of 2009, Bartlett is sure to be one of the tougher decisions for fantasy owners for 2010.  The batting average was huge at .320 and the power just kept coming to the tune of 14 HRs.  You can expect the batting average to correct a bit based on his BABIP, and the power was just too out of nowhere to believe in entirely.  However, Bartlett can be seen as an option worth of protecting since he will likely be the most valuable shortstop on the board if dropped.  Also worthy of note is that he will lead off should Carl Crawford be traded as is widely speculated.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $21

Alexei Ramirez (CWS) –  Ramirez is exactly the reason that you have to contain your expectations when paying for unproven young talent.  Alexi failed to meet the marks he set in 2008 during his second season in 4 out of the 5 categories despite logging 60 more ABs in 2009.  The potential is still there for a nice 5-category season, but remember that he is not some 23 year old.  He will be 29 this year.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $18

Elvis Andrus (TEX) –  Moving Michael Young to third base to make room for Andrus, the Rangers must expect big things from him to hand the starting job over to a 20 year old.  He made good on his first year in the bigs, and provided good fantasy value to his owners.  His batting average may not develop past his current mediocre level for another couple of seasons, but Andrus should be a fairly reliable option.  Now that Julio Borbon has been anointed the starter in center, thoughts of Andrus leading off should be over.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $14

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Outfield

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Torii Hunter (LAA) –  He is a lock for good, but not great production in all five categories.  That makes him dependable.  It also makes his ceiling fairly limited.  While potential breakouts such as Adam Jones and Andrew McCutchen will be bid up by GMs looking for the next big thing, Hunter will just continue giving good low-profile value.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $20

Chris Coghlan (FLA) –  Man, I hope you guys don’t overpay for Coghlan.  His numbers show that the batting average will remain high, but there will probably be little else to woo fantasy owners.  Not much power, not much speed (though the SB number could tick up slightly), and the loss of infield qualification dictates that you not go overboard for the 2009 N.L. ROY.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $11

Nyjer Morgan (WAS) –  The speedster successfully escaped Pittsburgh and ran wild once arriving in Washington.  Again, we are not talking about a youngster, as it took a good while for Morgan to break into the bigs and hold a spot there.  He is fast and can hit for average, however, and can help lock in a nice finish for your team in the stolen base category.  If your list of protects is studly, or slanted greatly towards power, pay an extra dollar or two for his services.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $17

Nate McLouth (ATL) –  He took a step back from his 2008 campaign, but 2009 still saw McLouth approach the 20-20 mark.  His ground ball rate has gone up almost 10% in the last two seasons, but his OBP remained constant.  While he may not take the step forward we were hoping for in 2009, he is still a fine source of power and speed.  Just think 2nd or 3rd outfielder, not 1st or 2nd.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $16

Raul Ibanez (PHI) –  Oh, what a disappointment the second half of 2009 was.  After crushing the ball and hitting 22 HRs with a .309 BA in the first half, the .238 batting average with 12 HRs in the second was a letdown.  Ibanez is old, and he never showed the type of power that he did in the first half of 2009.  Do not count on it continuing.  If you have him dirt cheap keep him, but there are better options out there with higher upside.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $11

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Starting Pitchers

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Johan Santana (NYM) –  I put him here in case there was some doubt in your mind that he should be protected.  He should be, and as a top pitcher.  Monitor his health up until the last moment you have to turn in your protects.  But if you hear no bad news, assume all is well and pay what you have to.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $30

Cole Hamels (PHI) –  I am a believer that Hamels just had an off season.  He works off his fastball with one of the best change-ups in the game.  His K/9 rate was almost unchanged from his very good 2008, as was his BB/9 rate.  The main difference in his numbers was his BABIP, which was 36 points higher than 2007 and 55 points higher than in 2008.  If you have him at top tier price, you can probably let him go and get him back cheaper in the auction.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $26

Javier Vazquez (NYY) –  With the season Vazquez had in 2009, many GMs will just automatically keep Vazquez.  Personally, I would be looking to trade him to someone else.  The change back to the American League and a hitter’s ballpark is going to crush his ratios, and make anyone who pays top dollar for him very sorry.  The good news is that since his 2009 was so much better than expected, you probably have him at a fairly cheap price.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $16

Yovani Gallardo (MIL) –  The touted youngster put up a nice season in 2009, which is sure to make fantasy GMs drool in anticipation of drafting him.  However, he suffers from a common affliction among young pitchers, which is a tendency to walk batters.  He is worth keeping at a moderate price, but know if you let him go, it will cost you to get him back.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $18

Tommy Hanson (ATL) –  The youngster posted a great stat-line in his first taste of the big leagues.  A 2.89 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP is nothing to sneeze at.  But neither is the fact that he has never thrown more innings during a season than he did in 2009 (194 IN between AAA and MLB).  To me, that is not enough of a sample size to pay for the hype that surrounds such a player.  Young pitchers are the most unpredictable commodity in fantasy baseball, and you should realize that before keeping such an unproven player.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $13

Ubaldo Jimenez (COL) –  Jimenez took a nice step forward in 2009, but that still leaves a ways to go.  I mean, he went from a 1.44 WHIP to a 1.23 WHIP.  Better?  Yes.  Worthy of paying as an elite pitcher?  No.  The potential is there for Jimenez to improve further, but there are options that have better control out there.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $16

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Closers

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Before we get into specific cases of closers, note that this is the fantasy baseball position that changes most often, and quickest.  Be sure to keep up with it by using our “Closer Report“.

Francisco Cordero (CIN) –  I am not a huge fan of closers that put up a high WHIP, and Cordero is one of these.  It is hard to argue with the results, since he has posted at least 22 saves in every season since 2004.  Yet in that same time span his WHIP has only been under 1.29 once.  That says to me that it will not take much decline for him to lose his job.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $18

Ryan Franklin (STL) –  Franklin is not some fireballing young kid that took the team by storm.  Instead, he was the lesser of the evils available in the Cardinal bullpen in 2009.  Sure, he came through with one of his better seasons, but with a track record of WHIP numbers as likely to be over 1.4 as under 1.2, Franklin had better be at the right price if you intend to protect him.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $13

Rafael Soriano (TB) –  The new closer for the Rays yanked the job away from Mike Gonzalez in Atlanta last season.  His second half was significantly worse than his first, yet he has the makeup of a closer and his secondary numbers point to success.  Injury is a risk with his history, and he also has some competition in the deep Ray’s pen if he should stumble.  MAX PROTECT PRICE: $19

American League

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Baltimore Orioles

• Closer – Mike Gonzalez : 2009 (10 S, 2.42 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 90 K, 74.3 IN)
• Setup – Jim R. Johnson : 2009 (10 S, 4.11 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 49 K, 70.0 IN)

While Mike Gonzalez lost his closer’s role to Rafael Soriano last year in Atlanta, he was actually the more effective pitcher after the All-Star Break.  The Orioles must have seen this, since they signed Gonzalez to take the ball in the ninth inning.  Gonzalez gets a little bit wild on the mound, and even in his stellar second-half of the season (1.11 ERA, .183 BAA), he walked 15 batters in 32.3 innings.  With Gonzalez, you also have to factor in a slightly high injury risk, despite his healthy 2009.  Having watched him pitch many times, it seems that the mental part of his game is somewhat weak.  If he lets up a hit or a walk, I came to almost expect another one to follow.  As soon as he was removed from the closer role, he seemed to be a better pitcher.  It is tough to say if his struggles were due to a rough patch, or the pressure of closing games.  His job security is moderate.

Jim Johnson had a great 2008, which is probably what made the Orioles believe they could get away with trading George Sherrill.  Johnson had a terrible second half in 2009, blowing 6 save chances.  Gonzalez will not lose his job because there is a better option behind him in the pen as he did last year.

Boston Red Sox

• Closer – Jonathan Papelbon : 2009 (38 S, 1.85 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 76 K, 68.0 IN)
• Setup – Hideki Okajima : 2009 (0 S, 3.39, 1.26 WHIP, 53 K, 61.0 IN)

Jonathan Papelbon has been stellar in his tenure as the Boston closer.  He is one of the safest options available to your fantasy team.  With a consistent ERA under 2.50 and a nice K rate, drafting Papelbon will provide your team with fantasy value throughout the season.  The only small red light is that he got a little wild in 2009, recording his worst walk rate since his rookie season.  His job security is extremely high.

Chicago White Sox

• Closer – Bobby Jenks : 2009 (29 S, 3.71 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 49 K, 53.3 IN)
• Setup – J.J. Putz : 2009 ( 2 S, 5.22 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 19 K, 29.1 IN)

Despite recording a decent number of saves for several seasons, there was reason to worry about drafting Jenks in 2009.  That worry should be increased slightly when looking at his numbers from last season.  Before last season, Jenks saw his K/9 rate drop for three straight seasons.  in 2009, that number made a slight recovery, but not all the way back to what it was in his first two seasons (2005- 11.44, 2006-10.33, 2007- 7.75, 2008- 5.55, 2009- 8.27).  That improvement was mostly offset by his highest BB/9 rate since 2006 (2.70).  While Jenks has historically been able to keep hitters grounding out, his GB/FB rate from 2009 was the lowest in his career.  He also let up more hits per inning in 2009, so the elevated WHIP (1.28, also his highest since 2006) was not only due to the extra walks issued.  He will still enter the season as the team’s closer, but when trade rumors surround a player, and a manager has to defend his closer again and again, it is usually a matter of time before a bullpen change is made.  His job security is moderate.

J.J. Putz is an example of the reason that you MUST discount closers that have a short track record, despite awesome ratios, saves, and K rate.  Putz looked awesome in his first two seasons as Seattle’s closer, but closers turn over quickly.  After injury and some ineffectiveness, Putz was cast aside like so many other guys that looked like they were going to emerge as stud closers.  If he can show some of what made him a quality closer as the setup man in Chicago, and Jenks struggles a bit, he could wind up with some save opportunities in 2010.

Cleveland Indians

• Closer – Kerry Wood : 2009 (20 S, 4.25 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 63 K, 55 IN)
• Setup – Chris Perez : 2009 (2 S, 4.26 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 68 K, 57.0 IN)

Honestly, I do not see what the big deal was about Kerry Wood.  He has been an injury risk since he broke into the league.  So he has one good season for the Cubs as their closer (and lets face it, it was a “good” and not “great” season) and fantasy GMs go nuts for this guy.  What did the Cubs do?  They let him go, and so should you.  Don’t do what the Indians did, and pay for this guy like he is the phenom that he looked like when he entered the league.  His K/9 rate is inconsistent from year to year, ranging from 11.40 to 8.88 over the last three seasons.  In 2009 his BB/9 rate almost doubled from his 2008 rate, and his HR/9 rate almost tripled.  Creating a winning fantasy roster is a tricky process.  I have found that predictability is one of the most important factors to pay attention to.  In addition to the increased injury risk Wood represents, even if he is healthy, a fantasy GM cannot with any certainty say what Wood is going to do in the 2010 season.  If you want to draft him, go ahead, but only pay as though he is a lower-middle tier option.  His job security is moderate.

If Chris Perez can improve his control, he could step up for Wood should the closer be ineffective or injured.  His K rate is right up there with Wood’s and his WHIP was significantly better.  While Wood’s contract will make replacing him difficult for the Indian’s front office to stomach, it could easily happen if he stumbles early in the season.

Detroit Tigers

• Closer – Joel Zumaya : 2009 (1 S, 4.94 ERA, 1.81 WHIP, 30 K, 31.0 IN)
• Setup – Ryan Perry : 2009 (0 S, 3.79 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 60 K, 61.7 IN)

Another career stalled by repeated injury, Joel Zumaya has no one in his way this season.  He enters the 2010 season as the favorite to work the ninth inning for the first time.  One has to remember that when it comes to Zumaya, you are not drafting proven production, you are drafting him based on upside.  So many times that upside does not pan out, and your bid money is wasted on a player who under-performs.  Zumaya has a total of 4 career saves.  When your fellow GMs talk about how he is a great pitcher, remember that they are still thinking of his rookie season when he had a 1.94 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.  His ratios got progressively worse after that season (of course injury played a role in this), until 2009 when he put up a 4.94 ERA and a 1.81 WHIP.  Much like Kerry Wood, if you draft Zumaya you are not only gambling that he will stay healthy, but that he will succeed in a high pressure role which he has never held before.  If you can get him cheap as your second or third closer, he could be worth the risk, but he is not someone you want to depend on for your saves.  His job security is low.

The backup options in case Zumaya does not pan out are thin.  Both Ryan Perry and Daniel Schlereth are young, and have control issues.  Both have talent, so watch this spring to see which one emerges with the 8th inning role.  This bullpen could be one of the more interesting situations to watch in 2010 (and dangerous for fantasy purposes).

Kansas City Royals

• Closer – Joakim Soria : 2009 (30 S, 2.21 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 69 K, 53.0 IN)
• Setup – Juan Cruz : 2009 (2 S, 5.72 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 38 K, 50.3 IN)

Despite losing a little time to injury in 2009, Soria remained one of the most effective relievers in the game.  While his WHIP climbed a bit in 2009, his numbers were still excellent.  His K rate in 2009 was the best of his career.  While his ERA and WHIP did climb from his previous levels, looking at the game log shows that he had two bad outings in August (giving up 3 runs in each).  This inflated his numbers, but worry not.  He did not let up a single run in 12 outings in September.  Soria is one of the safest bets out there to draft as your closer.  His job security is extremely high.

Los Angeles Angels

• Closer – Brian Fuentes : 2009 (48 S, 3.93 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 46 K, 55 IN)
• Setup – Fernando Rodney : 2009 (37 S, 4.40 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 61 K, 75.6 IN)

While Brian Fuentes was the MLB saves leader in 2009, his fantasy ranking is significantly lower than the elite at the position.  It is strange that after being able to pitch so well in Colorado, his numbers fell apart for the Angels.  In four months of the season (April, May July, September) his ERA was at least 4.50.  He blew 7 saves on the season, and his K/9 rate was the worst of his career.  Combine that with a decreasing ground-ball rate, and an increasing fly-ball rate, and you have a pitcher who is in decline.  These inflated numbers come despite a BABIP that went down from 2008 to 2009.  His job security is low to moderate.

This situation became a little more interesting after the Angels signed Fernando Rodney in the off-season.  The “closer” in Detroit last season, he had even worse ratios that Fuentes.  However, when you consider that the Angels also see Fuentes’ numbers in decline, there is little wonder that they wanted another option with at least some closing experience.  Jose Arredondo was perhaps thought to be the eventual replacement for Fuentes, but his injury forced the Angels to find a different insurance policy for the ninth inning.

Minnesota Twins

• Closer – Joe Nathan : 2009 (47 S, 2.10 ERA, .93 WHIP, 89 K, 68.6 IN)
• Setup – Matt Guerrier : 2009 (1 S, 2.36 ERA, .97 WHIP, 47 K, 76.3 IN)

In what may be the most boring analysis of this report, Joe Nathan is still the closer in Minnesota.  So I may as well use this space to remind everyone reading that Brian Sabean traded: Nathan, Francisco Liriano, and Boof Bosner for A.J. Pierzynski and cash.  Sabean just got a contract extension, by the way.  Nathan is very good, if not the best in the ninth inning.  Drafting him is money in the bank.  His job security is extremely high.

New York Yankees

• Closer – Mariano Rivera : 2009 (44 S, 1.76 ERA, .90 WHIP, 72 K, 66.3 IN)
• Setup – Phil Hughes : 2009 (3 S, 3.03 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 96 K, 86.0 IN)

If discussing the Twins bullpen was the most boring part of this report, then telling you that Mariano Rivera is still the closer for the Yankees is the second most boring.  He is also very good, and should still be among the first closers taken in fantasy auctions.  There is no point in analyzing his numbers, they are stellar.  Knock his value down slightly in keeper leagues, since let’s face it, he is old.  His job security is extremely high.

Phil Hughes had great success out of the bullpen, and will most likely remain there.  Once moved to the pen, his ratios were great.  With the addition of Javier Vazquez, the Yankee starting rotation is deep enough to spare Hughes.

Oakland Athletics

• Closer – Andrew Bailey : 2009 (26 S, 1.84 ERA, .88 WHIP, 91 K, 83.3 IN)
• Setup – Brad Ziegler : 2009 (7 S, 3.07 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 54 K, 73.3)

The American League Rookie of the Year set the bar very high as he emerged as the A’s closer in 2009.  In a season where Joey Devine and Brad Ziegler were supposed to battle for the 9th inning duties, a young fireballer named Andrew Bailey won the job.  Bailey’s numbers are simply fantastic.  Right-handers hit .185 off of him, and lefties were even worse at .146.  He got better and better as the year went on, with May being his highest ERA month (3.24).  With over a strikeout per inning, Bailey hit all the reliever G-spots.  His minor league record was not quite this good, but they used him as a starter for the most part.  Now that he doesn’t have that to worry about, this kid has the potential.  I hesitate to pay the same for him as I would for closers with a larger track record, since the turnover rate for closers after one good season is pretty high (and he will be expensive).  However, if you can get him at a somewhat reasonable price, jump on him.  His job security is high.

After Joey Devine was injured very early in the 2009 season, Brad Ziegler took over the job initially.  Ziegler is a sidearm-throwing, ground-ball pitcher who had a good bit of success in 2008.  However, in 2009, he had very little luck.  His K rate improved, but his BABIP went up 98 points.  The good news is that he did not walk batters at a higher rate in 2009, which means that if something does happen to Bailey, Ziegler should still be in the mix to pick up saves.

Seattle Mariners

• Closer – David Aardsma : 2009 (28 S, 2.52 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 80 K, 71.3 IN)
• Setup - Sean White : 2009 (1 S, 2.80 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 28 K, 64.3 IN)

This bullpen was one of the big question marks heading into the 2010 season.  With former closer, J.J. Putz having gone to the Mets, there was no clear choice to take over the job.  So what did the Mariners do?  They turned one of their touted, young starters, Brandon Morrow into their closer.  After giving up three earned runs in his first outing of the season, Morrow settled down to record 5 saves in 6 scoreless appearances in the rest of April.  Impressive, right?  His fantasy owners were very psyched about this, since they probably got him very cheap in their auction or with a waiver-wire pickup.  Well, Morrow then went on to let up earned runs in his next four outings, for a total of 8 ER in that span.  That was pretty much the end of the Morrow-as-closer experiment.

Enter, David Aardsma.  Aardsma pitched great in 2009, displaying a fine K rate.  His control could use some work, as his walk rate was 4.29 BB/9.  Aardsma had shown flashes of his abilities in the minors on several stops, but his numbers in the big league were less than spectacular before 2009.  The good news for him is that there is no one pushing him in the bullpen, so an implosion would have to happen for Aardsma to win the job.  So go ahead and buy him as a mid-level closer, but remember no closer is worth top dollars after only one season.  His job security is moderate to high.  Worth noting is that Chad Cordero recently resigned with the Mariners, and could factor in the saves picture should Aardsma struggle.

Tampa Bay Rays

• Closer – Rafael Soriano : 2009 (27 S, 2.97 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 102 K, 75.6 IN)
• Setup – J.P. Howell : 2009 (17 S, 2.84 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 79 K, 66.7 IN)

Newly acquired Rafael Soriano will start the season as the closer for the Rays.  Soriano was excellent in 2009, and was able to wrestle the job away from Mike Gonzalez.  Soriano had a K/9 rate of 12.13, and a BAA of .199.  He has an excellent closer’s mentality, and challenges hitters to put the ball in play.  He did seem to tired down the stretch, as his ERA moved progressively higher in every month after the All-Star Break.  Like all closers with a short track record, you have to be wary of paying too much for Soriano, since job security is lower than with a proven, established closer.  However, Soriano should be one of the safer choices among that group.  His job security is moderate.

J.P. Howell should be the primary set-up man for Soriano.  While Howell got the loin’s share of the save opportunities in 2008, he faded down the stretch to have his worst two months of the season in August and September.  He is lights out against right-handers to the tune of a .158 BAA with a .98 WHIP.  Lefties?  Not so much.  Against lefties he recorded .284 BAA and a 1.78 WHIP.

Texas Rangers

• Closer – Frank Francisco : 2009 (25 S, 3.83 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 57 K, 49.3 IN)
• Setup – C.J. Wilson : 2009 (14 S, 2.81 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 84 K, 73.7 IN)

Frank Francisco looked like he was on his way to being one of 2009’s emerging stud closers.  He didn’t let up an earned run in his first 18 appearances, and had a WHIP of .90 during that span.  Then Francisco met with both illness and elbow issues which derailed his first legitimate shot at the closer role.  While he was still able to nail down most of his save opportunities, his ERA was not under 4.50 in any month after May.  The good news is that his K and BB rates did not change from his earlier dominance.  This bodes well for his chances to hold the job down in 2010 if he can just stay on the field.  His job security is moderate to high.

While Francisco was out of commission, C.J. Wilson filled in nicely for him.  He recovered from a disastrous 2008 when he was unable to pitch effectively due to injury.  The result was that the lefty lost his chance at nailing down ninth inning duties.  There has been speculation that Wilson may join the starting rotation in the upcoming season, but until they actually announce that, he is the next in line for the closer role.

Toronto Blue Jays

• Closer – COMPETITION
• Scott Downs : 2009 (9 S, 3.09 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 43 K, 46.7 IN)
• Jason Frasor : 2009 (11 S, 2.50 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 56 K, 57.7 IN)

2009 was an odd year for the Blue Jay bullpen.  B.J. Ryan struggled in the WBC, then in spring training, then to start the season.  They eventually put Ryan on the D.L. and Scott Downs was able to take over.  When he first got the job, the kid was outstanding.  His stuff is electric, and he may have gone on to have a huge season if it wasn’t for Cito Gaston letting him bat in a game where there was absolutely no reason to let him bat.  Suffice to say, Downs was sent to bat while up 6 runs in extra innings.  He hit an infield ground ball, and hurt his foot leaving the batters box.  He rushed back after this injury, and was not as effective as he was in the first half of the season.  Eventually they shut him down after he injured his hamstring.  This allowed Jason Frasor to take over in the 9th inning.  Frasor was decent in the job, but is not as dominating, and actually had a higher ERA and WHIP in save opportunities than overall for the season.  I would expect a competition in the spring, and for Downs to win the job.   Whoever wins will have low-to-moderate job security, and could be replaced or put into a closing committee if they struggle.

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National League

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Arizona Diamondbacks

• Closer – Chad Qualls : 2009 (24 S, 3.63 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 45 K, 52.0 IN)
• Setup – Juan Gutierrez : 2009 (9 S, 4.06 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 66 K, 71.0 IN)

There are those fantasy GMs that really like Chad Qualls.  While he is a nice pitcher, and worth drafting at the right price, I do not see him as even close to an elite option for closer.  A dislocated kneecap derailed his 2009 season in late August, but even before that there was reason to reign in expectations (as well as bid money).  Whereas Qualls’ K/9 rate held steady for 2007 and 2008, in 2009 his K rate dropped by about 1 K/9.  On the positive side, his walk rate has improved each year over the last four seasons, so there is a chance that he could be better in 2010.  However, he also let up more hits than innings pitched.  That is a major red flag in my book.  So pay as a low-to-mid tier closer, since for more bid money than that your can get a more proven option.  His job security is moderate.

Juan Gutierrez took over in the ninth inning after Qualls was shut down for the season.  He was great in the role.  While his overall numbers are pedestrian, if you look only at his save opportunities, his ERA is over 2 runs lower, he only blew 1 save in 10 chances, and his WHIP was 1.0.  If Qualls struggles early, look out.

Atlanta Braves

• Closer – Billy Wagner : 2009 (0 S, 1.72 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 26 K, 15.7 IN)
• Setup – Takashi Saito : 2009 (2 S, 2.43 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 52 K, 55.7 IN)

Talk about living dangerously!  The Braves basically ran their best two relievers out of town, and replaced them with gambles.  Billy Wagner spent most of the 2009 season recovering from Tommy John surgery, and was only able to return to pitch under 16 innings.  The good news is that he looked a lot like the Wagner of old, with great ratios and K rate.  Wagner has been one of the best in the closing business for years, and if he is healthy I would expect it to continue.  Usually it takes about 18 months before a pitcher is truly back to full strength after TJ surgery, and Wagner will have well over that when spring training starts.  This is an opportunity for you fantasy GMs out there that are into the risk/reward game.  Wagner will probably be cheaper in 2010 auctions than he has been in many years.  Many GMs will be scared off by the surgery, but TJ surgery is pretty much perfected these days.  I expect his elbow to be as strong as ever.  Many GMs will be scared that both the Mets and the Red Sox just let him go instead of keeping him.  I like the fact that he found his way to a pitchers park in the National League with a team that handles their pitchers well.  Finally, if Takashi Saito is the best pitcher behind him in the pen, he should have a very long leash.  His job security is high.

Takashi Saito was a quality closer in Los Angeles for a couple of seasons, but he is old and his WHIP has gone up from .72 in 2007 to 1.19 in 2008, to 1.35 in 2009.  His K rate was also at a career low in 2009.  This is the wrong direction for his stats to move.  If Wagner gets hurt, Saito will take over.  However, I doubt that he will get the nod if Wagner is merely struggling through a rough patch.

Chicago Cubs

• Closer – Carlos Marmol : 2009 ( 15 S, 3.41 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 93 K, 74 IN)
• Setup – Angel Guzman : 2009 ((1 S, 2.95 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 47 K, 61.0 IN))

You have to wonder if all of the hesitation the Cubs (or maybe just Lou Pinella) had about putting Marmol in the closer role played a part in his struggles in 2009.  Marmol had been among the best relievers with the nastiest stuff in the game for 2007 and 2008.  Chances are that Marmol will resume the closer’s role, and pitch much the same way as he did before 2009.  His problems last season were a result of a marked increase in his walk rate.  He jumped from a 4.23 BB/9 in 2008 to 7.91 in 2009.  That is a HUGE increase.  most of his other numbers remained the same as they were in the two prior seasons.  His K rate was fine, and his BAA was still excellent at .171.  Keep your eye on him this spring, and if he isn’t walking almost a batter per inning, go ahead and draft Marmol as if last year hadn’t even happened.  His job security is high.

Now that Kevin Gregg has left the Cubs for free agency, the 9th inning role likely will fall to Angel Guzman.  In 2009 Guzman put up a fine line, and if he stays healthy this bullpen could be strong. It is unlikely that he will put any pressure on Marmol for the closer role.

Cincinnati Reds

• Closer – Francisco Cordero : 2009 (39 S, 2.16 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 58 K, 66.7 IN)
• Setup – Arthur Rhodes : 2009 (0 S, 2.53 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 48 K, 53.3 IN)

It is hard to deny that Cordero has rewarded his fantasy owners with saves galore over many seasons.  He could well continue to do so for a couple more years (he is 35 years old).  However, if I he was the best closer on my fantasy roster, I would be a little worried.  Just as his save totals are consistent year after year, so are the numbers that keep me from drafting him year after year.  This is in addition to declines in his secondary stats.  Cordero’s K/9 rate in 2009 was dropped for a second straight season, and was his lowest since 2002.  His WHIP has been 1.28 or higher in every season except for one since 2003.  His 2009 BABIP was the lowest against him since 2002 (.301), and his HR/9 rate was significantly lower than it has been over his last four seasons.  Both of these last stats tell me that he was more lucky than good in 2009.  Bottom line:  he walks too many batters, and is starting to lose velocity with his advancing age.  I will not be the one that is going to pay for that 2.16 ERA (his lowest since 2004), and watch as the wheels finally come off that wagon.  His job security is moderate to high.

Arthur Rhodes had a great 2009.  However, it is doubtful that they will turn the ball over to him in the 9th inning unless Cordero is injured.  His stuff is pretty good, but he is old and not going to maintain this resurgence forever.  Also worth tracking is Jared Burton.  He is young and needs to work on his control, but could work into the saves picture should Cordero falter.

Colorado Rockies

• Closer – Huston Street : 2009 (35 S, 3.06 ERA, .91 WHIP, 70 K, 61.7 IN)
• Setup – Manny Corpas : 2009 (1 S, 5.88 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 24 K, 33.7 IN)

After a 2008 season where Street struggled a bit, his 2009 production looks very similar to what he had come to expect from him.  Despite moving from a good pitcher’s park to a hitters haven, Street was able to win the closer’s role, and perform well all season long.  Only blowing 2 saves in 2009, his numbers in save opportunities are even better than his overall numbers indicate (2.03 ERA, .75 WHIP).  While his home run rate was up a bit, pitching in Coors field for half his games is going to come with a cost.  It is easy to believe that this rebound is real, since his K/9 rate, BB/9 rate, and WHIP in 2009 were much closer to his 2006 and 2007 totals than to his “bad” 2008.  I trust him this season, and so should you.  His job security is high.

Manny Corpas had a chance to hold onto his closer’s role, as there was an open competition between the two to start the 2009 season. Obviously he lost the battle, and was ineffective over the early portion of the year.  He was later shut down, and had elbow surgery.  He is expected to be ready to start the 2010 season in the set-up role.

Florida Marlins

• Closer – Leo Nunez : 2009 (26 S, 4.06 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 60 K, 68.7 IN)
• Setup – Dan Meyer : 2009 (2 S, 3.09 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 56 K, 58.3 IN)

When Matt Lindstrom struggled and was injured in 2009, the door was open for Leo Nunez to take over in the ninth inning for the Marlins.  Nunez was good enough to get the job done for a Marlins team that was never truly in the playoff hunt, but it would not surprise me at all if they looked for another option.  Blowing 7 saves in your first trial as a closer is not a way to hold onto the job, and that is just want Nunez did in 2009.  While his numbers were slightly better in save opportunities than they were overall, they still were not good enough to prevent the Marlins from looking elsewhere.  He walks too many batters, and his BABIP was so low that his numbers could easily get worse next season should luck not go his way again.  His job security is low.

Dan Meyer was arguably better than either of the two closers that the Marlins used last season.  His K/9 rate was better than Nunez, and he didn’t have any worse control.  If he starts the spring hot, don’t be surprised if a committee is announced, followed by Meyer taking over the duties entirely.

Houston Astros

• Closer – Brandon Lyon : 2009 (3 S, 2.86 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 57 K, 78.7 IN)
• Setup – Matt Lindstrom : 2009 (15 S, 5.89 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 39 K, 47.3 IN)

After having Jose Valverde close games successfully for the Astros over the last two seasons, they did not resign him.  Instead, they brought in two relievers that were supposed to have the closer role on their 2009 teams, but couldn’t hold onto the job.  Lyon will probably enter the season with the job, but does not have much experience in the ninth inning.  He has only had two seasons with double digit saves, and in the BETTER of the two seasons his WHIP was 1.48.  In fact, 2009 was by far the best year of Lyon’s career, with his only WHIP under 1.24, the BABIP against him was by far the lowest of his career (2009- .229).  This is a very low number, and a large correction can be expected.  This BABIP can also explain the low WHIP, since his BB/9 rate (3.55) was a career high.  All of these factors make me think that Lyon was more lucky than good.  Add into that the extreme change to a hitter’s ballpark, and drafting him on your fantasy team is asking for problems.  His job security is low.

Matt Lindstrom (as we covered above) was not able to hold onto the closer’s job in Florida, and he became expendable.  He throws 100 MPH, but only has one other pitch.  If he cannot locate his fastball on any given day, he has big issues.  Until he develops more control with the fastball, or a third pitch he can throw effectively for strikes, he will most likely struggle from time to time.  That said, once Lyon starts to struggle, Lindstrom should get a chance to close games.  I see this situation turning into a closer-by-committee, which is the last thing you should want on your fantasy roster.

Los Angeles Dodgers

• Closer – Jonathan Broxton : 2009 (36 S, 2.61 ERA, .96 WHIP, 114 K, 76.0 IN)
• Setup – George Sherrill : 2009 (21 S, 1.70 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 69.0 IN)

The Dodgers played this one just right.  They must have seen what they had in Jonathan Broxton years ago when they felt he could take over for Takashi Saito.  They gave him the ball in the 9th inning, and never looked back.  Broxton has rewarded their confidence with an excellent first full season as the closer.  While any critics out there will point to the 6 blown saves he had in 2009, every other number produced by Broxton is undeniable.  Consider him one of the elite, with keeper leagues adding a little extra value (he is just getting started).  His job security is extremely high.

George Sherrill is a candidate to be moved before the season starts, but as the Dodger’s roster stands now, he would serve as set-up man for Broxton.  Sherrill is murder on left-handed batters (.128) but right-handers hit over 100 points higher (.244).  It is possible that one of the smaller market teams that refuse to spend money (Pirates, Marlins) will trade for Sherrill as a closer if the Dodgers will pick up part of his salary.

Milwaukee Brewers

• Closer – Trevor Hoffman : 2009 (37 S, 1.83 ERA, .91 WHIP, 48 K, 54.0 IN)
• Setup – LaTroy Hawkins : 2009 (11 S, 2.13 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 45 K, 63.3 IN)

The ageless one came through again for those fantasy GMs that gambled on him again in 2009.  Despite his age and the drastic change to a hitter’s ballpark, Hoffman put up another elite caliber stat line.  Of course, his strikeouts were not what they once were, but Hoffman was able to hold his ERA under 2.0 and his WHIP under 1.0 on his way to 37 saves.  In 2009 Hoffman had his best season in years, but since his last two seasons were still nicely above average for a closer, even if he regresses he should be worth while.  Be careful not to pay for 2009’s stats, since he is after all 42 years old.  His job security is extremely high.

LaTroy Hawkins stepped in very nicely when Jose Valverde spent time on the D.L. in 2009.  He blew 4 of his 15 save chances, but kept his ratios at respectable levels, and showed fairly good control.  He doesn’t possess the overpower stuff to challenge Hoffman for the job, but he can fill in effectively should the need arise.

New York Mets

• Closer – Francisco Rodriguez : 2009 (35 S, 3.71 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 73 K, 68.0 IN)
• Setup – Kelvim Escobar : 2009 (0 S, 3.60 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 5 K, 5 IN)

It was pretty easy to predict that K-Rod would not have another record breaking season like he did in 2008.  Yet that doesn’t mean that 2009 was bad for his fantasy owners.  While K-Rod’s 2009 ERA (3.77) went up over a point from his 2008 mark of 2.24, he did not pitch that much worse.  His WHIP (never his strongest category) only climbed from 1.29 to 1.31, and he still managed to record 35 saves.  Although K-Rod was still among the more valuable fantasy closers, there are plenty of reasons to be wary of paying the high price he will command on draft day.  His K/9 rate has dropped every year since 2004, his BB/9 rate has climbed every year since 2006, his HR/9 rate has climbed since 2006, and his BAA has risen every season since he has entered the league.  Top this off with a 30 point DECLINE in his BABIP from 2008 to 2009, and you have a serious downward trend in K-Rod’s actual fantasy value.   I have to remind you at this point, that all of these declines happened straight through his record breaking saves season.  So while K-Rod’s price is sure to be as high as his name recognition, don’t pay it.  Bid him up, and then let him go.  His job security is high.  Kelvim Escobar is expected to change from starter to set-up man for K-Rod.

Philadelphia Phillies

• Closer – Brad Lidge : 2009 (31 S, 7.21 ERA, 1.81 WHIP, 61 K, 58.7 IN)
• Setup – Ryan Madson : 2009 (10 S, 3.26 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 78 K, 77.3 IN)

Brad Lidge’s career over the last few years has been a roller-coaster ride.  From a stud closer, to a flop, to a record setting season, to absolute disaster.  A 7.21 ERA???  A 1.81 WHIP???  Are you kidding me?  No amount of saves is worth that damage to a team’s ratios.  Whether from overuse, mental weakness, injury, or mechanical flaw, Lidge just exploded in 2009.  What is troubling about Lidge for 2010 is that his most recent meltdown is very different from his troubles in 2006.  In 2006, Lidge’s WHIP and ERA were significantly higher than in his previous and subsequent seasons (barring 2009).  However, his K/9 rate remained around his career (to date) average.  His walk rate was not noticeably different, and his GB/FB rate actually got better than his 2005 total.  What is very different in 2009 was his K/9 rate which was a career low at 9.36 (suggesting a loss of velocity).  His walk rate also was the highest since his 8 -inning, 2002 season, and the number of HR he allowed was a career high.  Especially troubling is that his BAA went through the roof to .303.  This looks like a case where a pitcher’s stuff is fading  Can he still compete and close games?  Sure, for a while longer if he can learn to pitch without 12.0 K/9 type velocity (like Pedro Martinez did).  But do you really want to pay the price for the Lidge brand and see how long that transition may take?  From the looks of last season, it may still be a way off.  His job security is moderate.

It takes all of one second to see that Madson’s numbers were better than Lidge’s in 2009.  If Lidge struggles again, I don’t see it taking long to make this switch.  If you do decide to gamble on Lidge this season, make sure to handcuff him with Madson for at least the first couple of weeks.

Pittsburgh Pirates

• Closer – COMPETITION
• Joel Hanrahan : 2009 (5 S, 4.78 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, 72 K, 64 IN)
• Evan Meek : 2009 (0 S, 3.45 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 42 K, 47 IN)

Man, the Pirates are a mess.  They have had serious management problems, and have traded away or let go many of the players that could have made them a competitive ball-club.  Matt Capps is an example of this.  The better a player’s production is, the more he will cost on the free agent market.  Capps had a poor 2009 season, thus he probably wound up signing for less money than he could have if he had put up the same great ratios as the year’s before.  The Pirates should have seen this and tried to get him, since the price had an automatic “bad free-agent year” discount.  Oh well.  Now they have to let the lesser arms they still have fight it out in the spring.  A committee approach would be the most likely outcome, with Joel Hanrahan getting most of the opportunities to start the season.  He was one of the many Nationals “closers” in 2009, and has a nice K/9 rate.  Still, walking almost 5 batters per 9 innings is not something that a closer can do an expect to keep his job.

Evan Meek is young and unproven, but he did have a better 2009 season than Hanrahan did.  His minor league numbers were good, and his K rate was good enough to qualify him as a strikeout pitcher (8.04 K/9).  Either one of these two, both, or someone else for that matter, may emerge with saves this season.  One thing is for sure, the Pirates are too cheap to sign Jose Valverde.

St. Louis Cardinals

• Closer – Ryan Franklin : 2009 (38 S, 1.92 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 44 K, 61.0 IN)
• Setup – Kyle McClellan : 2009 (3 S, 3.38 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 51 K, 66.7 IN)

After a terrific spring training, Jason Motte looked like he was heading into the season as the Cardinal closer.  A couple of huge implosions later, he was in the minors, and the Cards were looking for another option.  Ryan Franklin was more than happy to step up.  Despite not having overpowering stuff (44K/61IN), he proved to be very effective. It needs to be pointed out that he had a .269 BABIP against him, which is lower than his career average.  This implies that a correction is coming for his 2010 ratios.  When you compare his numbers from 2009 to his career averages, this correction becomes even more likely.  There is a large sample size to look at (Franklin has pitched in the majors for 11 seasons), and 2009 was by far his most impressive effort.  Also worth noting is that the Cardinals do have other options to turn to if Franklin should struggle.  Treat Franklin as a mid-value choice in your auction or draft, and do not pay for that 1.92 ERA from 2009.  His job security is moderate.

While Kyle McClellan will start the season as the set-up man for Franklin, it would not be hard to believe that the Cardinals want Motte to step up into the role.  McClellan was good for the first half of 2008, but gave up a .276 BAA after the All-Star Break.  Motte has terrific stuff, but needs to work on his control.  He also really needs to improve against lefties, who hit .341 against him.

San Diego Padres

• Closer – Heath Bell : 2009 (42 S, 2.71 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 79 K, 69.7 IN)
• Setup – Mike Adams : 2009 (0 S, .73 ERA, .59 WHIP, 45 K, 37.0 IN)

Heath Bell was one of the few bright spots in the Padres 2009 season.  Upon Hoffman’s departure, Bell stepped in and became a fantasy stud.  With a K/9 rate of 10.21, and WHIP of only 1.12, Bell went on to save over half of the Padres wins in 2009.  While Bell was fairly effective against left-handers, he absolutely owned right-handed batters to the tune of a .138 BAA.  Don’t be scared to target Bell due to the fact that the Padres are a bad team, since it never seemed to hurt Hoffman’s save totals, and Bell’s production was no different last season.  The one thing that I would watch is to see what kind of shape he shows up to spring training in.  Knowing he had the job to lose, Bell came into spring in 2009 in very good shape.  He was not a small guy even after getting “into shape”, so if he is out of shape, beware.  His job security is high.

That is, his job security is high unless the Padres deal him because they like Mike Adams so much.  This kid was great in 2009, and if he can stay healthy could emerge as the closer should Heath Bell either falter or be traded away.  He is young, and still mostly unproven at the major league level, but the Padres are in the midst of a youth movement, and could decide to look to Adams.

San Francisco Giants

• Closer – Brian Wilson : 2009 (38 S, 2.74 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 83 K, 72.3 IN)
• Setup – Jeremy Affeldt : 2009 (0 S, 1.73 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 55 K, 62.3 IN)

Brian Wilson seems to have turned the corner from being merely the best available option for the Giants, to being a quality closer.  Although he led the league in saves in 2008, his ERA and WHIP were high enough to scare off plenty of fantasy GMs.  This should change this season.  His strikeout rate improved for the second straight season (10.33 K/9), he let up fewer home runs, and he cut his walk rate significantly.  He did blow 7 of his save opportunities, but Wilson’s numbers improved as the year went on.  After an April and May where his ERA was over 4.0 in each month, he didn’t have an ERA over 2.31 in any month for the rest of the season.  Wilson should be a dependable option for the 2010 season.  His job security is high.

Washington Nationals

• Closer – Matt Capps : 2009 (27 S, 5.80 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 46 K, 56.3 IN)
• Setup – Brian Bruney : 2009 (0 S, 3.92 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 36 K, 39.0 IN)

It is tough to leave the Pirates and not go to a significantly better team, but that is just what Matt Capps did.  Despite his poor 2009, Capps enters the season as the presumed closer for the Nationals.  Prior to 2009, Matt Capps had the reputation of a solid ratio pitcher with good, but not overpowering stuff.  After holding his ERA under 3.05 for two straight seasons, his average ballooned up to 5.80.  In 2008 he had a BAA under .250 against both right and left handed batters.  In 2009 he could hold neither under .300.  Capps also saw a marked jump in his walk rate.  The bright spot in this season for Capps is that his BABIP was a ridiculous .370.  That is 98 points higher than in 2008.  Another factor that may have contributed to his off season was a line-drive comebacker that hit Capps in the elbow in May.  After putting up numbers in April that were right in line with his career (1.42 ERA), he never really pitched the same after he got hit.  So the odds are that the Nationals scored with this signing, and can prevent the 9th inning revolving door that their team’s closers used in 2009.  His job security is low to moderate.

Brian Bruney was acquired from the Yankees via trade, and should be next in line if Capps can’t recover from his struggles.  Bruney was adequate in 2009, but his BB/9 rate is simply too high.  If he can improve on that, he may vulture some saves.

The Rockies have signed Chris Iannetta to a three-year deal.  Iannetta was the big 2008 breakout catcher, but his 2009 was a step backward.  Hopefully the thin air will get back under some of those fly balls and he can regain the ground he lost.

The Astros have to win the award for busiest early team.  They just signed Pedro Feliz.  At this point Feliz’s glove is more valuable than his bat.

The Pirates have signed shortstop Bobby Crosby.  Crosby could get a fresh start with a new team.  He will most likely not start full time right away, but could push for increased playing time if he hits well.

Rafael Soriano has been traded to the Tampa Bay Rays.  This comes days after Soriano accepted the Braves’ offer of arbitration.  Soriano was excellent last season, and was one of the true gems that I found for cheap in our auction.  He took over for an inconsistent Mike Gonzalez and didn’t look back.  Unfortunately, this trade hurts Soriano’s fantasy baseball value in my eyes.  In Atlanta, he was the big dog, clearly the best of the bunch.  In Tampa, he has more competition, and the competition is closer in talent level.  J.P. Howell, Dan Wheeler, Randy Choate, and Grant Balfour all showed decent stuff in 2009.  If Soriano pitches as he did in the first half of 2009 then he should be fine (1.48 ERA, 0.90 WHIP).  He did struggle in the second half though (4.81 ERA, 1.27 WHIP), and similar struggles in 2010 could lead to competition for a 9th inning role.

The Astros just keep the bullpen train rollin’ with the siging of Brandon Lyon.  Lyon had a decent year in 2009, and should begin the season as the team’s closer.  Hopefully one of the two pen signings will wind up a success in the 9th inning.

Well this next announcement is a little upsetting to me.  I have been known to bid too much on Rich Harden.  I like the guy, and think if he could just stay healthy, he could be special (even if just for a year or two).  His 2009 was sub-par, and that trend could continue now that he has signed with the Texas Rangers.  Moving to the American League, and a hitter’s park to boot, I fear I will have to let Harden go this year.  Oh well…

The Astros began rebuilding their bullpen by trading for relief pitcher Matt Lindstrom.  Lindstrom struggled both with health and his control in 2009, and wound up watching Leo Nunez fill the closer roll for much of the year.  As a 2009 Lindstrom owner, I would advise everyone to wait on him until he figures out how to throw another pitch.  He has a great fastball, but when he can’t locate it he has problems.  His slider is not good enough to rely on.  Lindstrom definitely needs a changeup.

The Rangers have trade Kevin Millwood to the Orioles for relief pitcher Chris Ray.  I was a big believer that Ray could make a comeback last season, and drafted him in several leagues.  Needless to say, he did not pan out that well.  Going to a hitter’s park is not going to help him keep the ball in the yard.  The opposite is also true.  Millwood could have a surprise good season removed from The Ballpark in Arlington.

“Su-prise, su-prise, su-prise.”  -Gomer pile.  Andy Pettitte has signed with the Yankees.  Go figure.  The guy still commands a high price, and can still pitch to win.  Fantasy-wise, he is overrated.

Another marathon negotiation has finally ended.  Randy Wolf has signed with the Milwaukee Brewers.  You have to give props to Wolf, as he turned his out of the blue career year into big bucks.  I personally do not expect him to come close to the excellent ratios that he put up in 2009.  That was the first season since 2002 that Wolf posted an ERA under 4.0 or a WHIP under 1.27.  Don’t do what the Brewers did and overpay for him in your fantasy draft or auction.

It is finally official, Chone Figgins is a Seattle Mariner.  We’ve heard about it for days now, but it has just now happened.  I am unsure why the Mariners felt this was such a great player that they had to lock him up so early.  The ONE thing they already have is a leadoff hitter, and I don’t see the Mariners pissing off their best player by dropping him to the second spot.  One thing they do not have is power.  Only Jose Lopez, and Russell Branyan hit more than 20 HRs in 2009.  Figgins will start at third base, and most likely hit second.

It looks as though the New York Yankees have acquired outfielder Curtis Granderson in a three way deal with the Tigers and the Diamondbacks according to FOXSports.com.  Granderson was not the only fantasy commodity that changed hands in this deal, as the Tigers and D’Backs swapped starting pitcher Max Scherzer and Edwin Jackson.  The Yankees also traded away Ian Kennedy, Austin Jackson, and Phil Coke in the deal.  Obviously, this increases the value of Granderson as he now will be hitting in a top MLB lineup.  The value difference on Scherzer is less clear.  He is on a better team (we think) than he was before and he is in a better ballpark for pitchers, but he now goes to the American League.  Edwin Jackson could find an easier time of it in the lower pressure environment of the National League West.