Bartlett achieved his career year on 500 at-bats, but will have 20% more at-bats in 2010. The cumulative categories (Home runs, stolen bases, RBIs and runs) can only be positively affected by 100 more at-bats. Even with a slight regression in production per at-bat, last year’s numbers are more than achievable; they can be exceeded. Let’s look at how 600 at-bats in the leadoff position should affect Bartlett’s 2010 numbers.

Home Runs
No number was more of a breakout last year for Bartlett than his home run total in 2009. He hit 14 long-balls, nine more than his previous best for a season. Still, his relatively high total of home runs last season works out to just one home run every 36 at-bats. That’s not exactly Babe Ruth or Ralph Kiner. Even if Bartlett regresses to just one home run per 50 at-bats, in a 600 at-bat season, he still hits 12 home runs, just two shy of that breakout total of 14. To put it in perspective, that’s basically one home run every two weeks. If he cracks two in one series, he doesn’t have to hit one for another month. Bartlett can handle that. The Bartlett owner-to-be isn’t exactly buying him for his power anyway. In fact, the home run jump that seems unsustainable, might be scaring him off. But as we can see, the extra at-bats cushion the risk of a return to a four or five home run season.

Stolen Bases
This category is a double bonus. Whereas home runs is a category in which Bartlett’s extra at-bats mitigate risk, stolen bases gets two serious bumps from this move. First, where most of the experts are predicting around 30 stolen bases on about 500 at-bats, we can now update that number. Adding 20 percent to 30 is easy.  So is 36 the new stolen base number? The Sporting News™ is the only fantasy baseball publication I use that has predicted 600 at-bats and get this, they predict 35 stolen bases.

But there’s another difference that adds value beyond the 20 percent already tacked on. Batting toward the bottom of the order doesn’t always lend to running situations. The leadoff spot is designed around it. So, related to stolen bases, Bartlett isn’t just receiving more at-bats, he’s receiving a higher quality of at-bat too. A 40 stolen base season is well within reach.

Runs
The same two positives that will affect stolen bases will have a similarly positive impact on the runs category. The 20 percent added to last year’s total(90 runs) will add 18, to bring the projection to 108 runs. That’s a huge number. Remember the aforementioned Sporting News with the 600 at-bat Bartlett line? They project 111 runs scored. Add to it that when batting near the bottom of the order, Bartlett was often stranded by lesser hitters.

If Carl Crawford and the rest of the heart of the order had a chance to drive him in, you could be sure there would be a few outs on the board already. But now Bartlett will always, always be followed by the best on the team. The one hitter is driven in by the three and four hitters a hell of a lot more than the eight hitter. Stolen bases and runs stand to receive the largest jump and with all these opportunities, 110 runs suddenly seems like the right floor. If this Tampa offense cranks away this season, Bartlett could end up 5 – 15 runs higher than that.

Runs Batted In
RBIs seems to be the one category in which the leadoff hitter doesn’t have a huge edge on the others in the order, to varying degrees of course. You can guarantee that there will be no one on base during the first at-bat of the game, so the extra at-bats add a little less to this category. Still, slight improvements to RBIs are to be expected, just based on total chances, but don’t bet on too much. Add five to ten RBIs to last year’s 65 and you should be safe.

Batting Average
This is the toughest category to predict. Can Bartlett keep up the .320 average he displayed last year? Likely not, but imagine a .295 average on 600 at-bats. That’s a fair regression and leaves plenty of room for realistic upside. So, at .295, that’s 177 hits. That’s 17 more total hits than the breakout year of 2009. And that’s with a very conservative estimate for at-bats. There’s no reason to believe that 100 extra at-bats sprinkled evenly throughout the course of a season will have a tiring effect on a veteran like Bartlett. The fact that we can be so conservative in our batting average projections and still exceed last year’s number with higher quality at-bats is the clearest indication of how undervalued Bartlett’s stats really are.

Fantasy Implications

Last year I bid on Russell Branyan at third base and got him for nothing. I noticed that he was going to play everyday, putting his 2009 reality far above his projected at-bats. In the three seasons leading into 2009, Branyan had collected a total of 536 at-bats and hit a whopping 40 home runs (one home run per 13.4 at-bats), virtually in line with his now career home per at-bat rate one for every 14.8 at-bats. So it became a question of math. How many at-bats was he going to get. In the end, he got injured, but by that time he had amassed 431 at-bats and 31 home runs, one home run ever 13.9 at-bats–right on target! Sure, I had to finish with an also-ran in Branyan’s spot, but by that time, that roster spot had produced, among other things, 31 home runs, a great total for a third baseman that cost me nothing.

The point is, fantasy baseball is a game of math. If you see a player who will be getting many more at-bats than the fantasy baseball magazines and, more importantly, your friends think he will, then the player is under-valued. There are under-valued players like Branyan at the bottom rungs of the depth charts, and once in a while there’s a player like Bartlett, who’s got a high price tag, but remains under-valued nonetheless. Also, the game isn’t about getting a whole team of under-priced players. The key is to strike a balance between stats you can buy on the cheap while paying the price for the stats you absolutely must have. Some players are worth the price tag.

That said, my new 2010 fantasy baseball projection for Jason Bartlett is:

600 abs/12 home runs/73 RBIs/114 runs/41 stolen bases/.295 BA

Q:  Is Francisco Liriano’s good off-season performance going to continue against big league hitters?

Francisco Liriano is sure to be on many 2010 fantasy baseball sleeper lists.  His phenomenal potential which he displayed in 2006 is not going to just be forgotten.  Though his numbers in 2009 were awful, smart and attentive GMs will know that he has been throwing very well this off-season.  Reportedly hitting 95 mph, he posted a .186 BAA with a 1.54 ERA and .86 WHIP in the Dominican Winter League.  Now, we have to be aware that Liriano’s winter ball numbers are an extremely small sample size (11.7 IN).  Every pitcher goes through stretches where they seem to be untouchable, and certainly 12 innings is not enough to decide that Liriano is back to form.  However, if he comes into spring training and starts putting up similar ratios against tougher competition, he could be a gem for those of us that have paid close enough attention.

Q:  Is Brandon Wood ready to hit at the major league level?

I have been waiting for Brandon Wood to get a legitimate shot at a starting job for several seasons now.  It is very likely that you have been too.  However, you have to be aware that when he popped onto our radars, the picture we had in our heads was of a 40+ home run hitting shortstop.  Now that he will be playing third base, part of that value is gone.  Also, his K/BB rate has seen little progress in his limited major league ABs.  With the starting job all but handed to him for 2010, this spring should give us a little view of what could be coming.  If he continues to strike out much more than walk, I will greatly reduce the price I am willing to pay.  If he makes some progress, I would bump him up on my sleeper list.

Q:  Was David Ortiz’ power outage an aberration or the beginnings of a decline?

When talking purely about power, spring training is not really something for which we are going to get a definitive answer.  After all, many of the ABs that David Ortiz will receive this spring will be against pitchers that are not ready to face major league hitters.  A couple of 85 mph fastballs at the wrong time could result in home runs that taint the sample we get to see from a power hitter.  Supposedly, Ortiz has been pulling the ball more in recent seasons, and an opposite field approach could help his numbers.  With a failed PED test, there is reason to believe that hitting the ball to left field is not the real reason his power numbers have dropped.

Q:  Will Grady Sizemore return to put up numbers close to his past 30-30 performance?

With two separate surgeries in 2009, I am willing to chalk Grady Sizemore’s poor numbers up to injury.  Yet, a smart fantasy GM will have to accept that the risk of injury is increased.  Also, it is very possible that there could be some residual decline due to last year’s problems.  A elbow injury could continue to affect his power, and a groin injury could keep him from running as much.  This is in addition to the fact that the Indians are offensively terrible.  A reduction in the number of runs he will score should be assumed.  With Sizemore moving to the second slot in the batting order, his RBI total may improve, but that is far from assured.  He is young enough to return to elite status, but fantasy GMs should be a little skeptical until they see him playing without restriction.

Q:  How will Matt LaPorta find the ABs he needs to break-out in 2010?

The addition of Russell Branyan has put a haze around the role of one of 2010’s biggest fantasy baseball sleepers.  When Branyan first signed, I along with most baseball people assumed that he would be filling a part time or DH role.  However, Manny Acta said that Branyan has the inside track on the starting first base job.  Most of us assumed that Matt LaPorta would get the shot that we have been waiting for him to get.  Now it appears as though he will either have to win a job in the outfield (likely at the expense of Michael Brantley) or have Branyan stumble early to get a full season of ABs.  Personally, I am skeptical that Branyan can stay both healthy and effective for long stretches of time, so LaPorta should get his shot.

Q:  What the heck is the Royals starting lineup going to look like?

This is not an easy question, as their roster contains a ton of players that have been starters in the past, and also many players that have the potential to be better than those starters.  Players such as Rick Ankiel, Alberto Callaspo, Yuniesky Betancourt, and David Dejesus have held starting jobs before.  They had better produce, however, because the off-season has seen the addition of Josh Fields and Chris Getz.  That, combined with the return of Mike Aviles, could drastically change that starting lineup.  Another large question is how much faith they have in Alex Gordon.  With Fields able to play both third base and the outfield (not that his defense is very good at either position), there are not many players other than Billy Butler that should feel their job is safe.

Q:  Is Alfonso Soriano’s knee healthy?

You should get the visions of a return to 40-40 form out of your head right now (even 30-30 is just ridiculous).  With the injuries Alfonso Soriano has suffered, it is unclear how much of the decline in his numbers is due to those ailments and how much is due to an eroding skill set.  Having a bad knee certainly reduces his stolen base potential, and it is not hard to imagine that it has drained part of his power as well.  Reports out of Cubs camp are that his knee is not yet 100%, but it is better than it was last season.  The question is how much better, and will he be able to make a rebound in 2010?  Spring training could give us a little insight into how much he will be worth (or should be discounted) in 2010 fantasy baseball auctions and drafts.  At the least we should see how healthy he really is.

Q:  Who will win the starting center-field job for the Reds?

I briefly covered this situation in the latest Quick Fix article.  While no one will deny that Chris Dickerson has the tools to develop into a quality major league hitter, Drew Stubbs greatly outperformed him when given the chance in 2009.  Dusty Baker has come forward and said that Stubbs deserves to play because of that performance.  If Dickerson can prove that he has rediscovered the power that left him last year, he could push the issue.  However, at this point it seems that Stubbs is the frontrunner.

Q:  Will Jay Bruce learn to hit lefties?

The reality is that the spring will probably not give us enough information to answer this question, but you should be aware that this is the major stumbling block Jay Bruce has met with in his young career.  We all know that he has massive power potential in his bat, but that alone is not enough to justify the large price which he is sure to command.  After hitting .190 against lefties in 2008 and .210 in 2009, he still has work to do in order to keep his overall BA from hurting fantasy teams.  That said, he proved that he can hit in the minor leagues, and is still young enough to have those skills translate into major league ability.

Ben Sheets  (SP – OAK) –  Sheets is telling anyone that will listen that he is 100% healthy this season.  While this is normal talk for an injury prone player like Sheets, this is also the type of player that can help you win the league.  He has no stats from 2009 for your competition to see, so he could fly right under their radar.  Even if there are a few members of your league that are watching him this spring, they will likely be hesitant to bid more than a few dollars in order to land him.  Lemme give you another name that was very similar to Sheets’s situation in 2009… Chris Carpenter.  That worked out pretty well for those GMs that took the gamble on him.  If Sheet’s velocity is where it should be late in the spring, I will gamble on him for the right price.

Josh Hamilton  (OF – TEX) –  Shoulder problems last year, and already a shoulder contusion this spring.  For the most part, his story makes you want to root for him.  His career year in 2008 was awesome, but has to be put in context.  That was two years ago, after many years of his talent being wasted.  He is not some 22 year old superstar.  He is 29 years old, and an injury risk.  Root for him, but don’t pay as though he is going to be a core member of your keeper league for years.

Octavio Dotel  (RP – PIT) –  He is the favorite to start the season closing games for the Pirates, so he has to be on your radar.  Here is the skinny.  He has met with some success throughout his career, and has put up the occasional great season.  Yet he has not been able to hold down the closer’s role for long stretches whether due to injury or ineffectiveness.  Now 36 years old, this could easily be his last chance to hold a role this significant (and perhaps extend his career a couple of years).  His ERA in 2009 was great, but his K/9 rate dropped from 12.86 down to 10.83 (which is still by all means respectable), and his BB/9 rate went up from 3.9 to 5.2.  The lack of other good options should give him a nice long leash, but don’t be surprised if that leash eventually runs out.  Also note that he is dealing with some side soreness, which is not the start he was looking for.

Stephen Strasburg (SP – WAS) –  If you watch as much ESPN as I do, you have probably heard the story on this kid.  He is supposedly awesome, and Pudge Rodrigeuz recently threw his two cents in about Strasburg to the media.  When asked if Strasburg has stuff similar to Justin Verlander, he said that Nolan Ryan was a closer comparison.  That type of comment obviously has to be taken with a grain of salt, but it is exactly the type of thing that make fantasy baseball GMs drool about a player, and thus overpay for him.  The story I like even better is how Strasburg’s nickname is evolving.  Supposedly they are calling him “Jesus”, because when hitters make their out against him they walk away muttering, “Jesus!”.  Be careful reaching for Strasburg in your fantasy baseball draft or auction.  While the Nationals do need starters pretty badly, there is just no telling how much (or little) time in the majors he will get.

Mike Napoli  (C – LAA) –  Mike Napoli may get it.  He is working on his defense, apparently switching to a bigger glove.  Napoli has tremendous power, and has managed to keep him batting average high enough not to hurt fantasy teams.  His lack of ABs over the last three years is the only reason he is not considered among the elite catchers.  If his defense can improve to the point where Mike Scioscia can trust him for 120-130 games, he could be one of the big fantasy baseball breakouts of 2010.  Of course, a bigger glove is not going to help him call a better game for his pitchers.  It remains to be seen if it is an issue of his pitch calling or actually catching the ball that is the major part of the problem.

Francisco Liriano  (SP – MIN) –  Early reports are good, as was his stint in the Dominican League over the winter.  He says he feels like he is getting back into his rookie year form.  While I am not willing to pay as though that is certain, I could easily believe that he can make enough comeback to make a modest bid worth while.  Since his 2009 numbers were not very good, he is similar to Ben Sheets in that his profile should be fairly low.

Michael Brantley  (OF – CLE) –  My pick for A.L. ROY’s chances to actually win the award took a big hit yesterday when Russell Branyan was said to be the front runner for the starting first base job.  Such a move would put 2010 fantasy baseball sleeper Matt LaPorta into the outfield, and put uber-sleeper Brantley in AAA.  It remains to be seen if Branyan can stay effective and healthy at the same time, so don’t give up on Brantley quite yet.  He now he needs either LaPorta or Branyan to fail in order to get the ABs he needs.  He has the ability to step up should the opportunity to win a job present itself.

Chone Figgins  (3B? – SEA) –  I have been doing a lot of stat trivia on Twitter lately, and I keep coming across Figgins’ name.  He had a great year last season.  He was the only player in the majors that walked at least 100 times and stole over 20 bases in 2009.  His OBP was almost .400, and he stole over 30 bases for the 6th straight season.  However, the reason that I am writing about him today is that the Mariners are considering moving him to second base.  An excellent defender at third, I would be surprised if this actually happened.  Yet his 2010 fantasy baseball value would take a huge jump should they make this move official.

First Base

—————-

Top Tier : Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, Mark Teixeira

It would be very easy to put Albert Pujols in this tier by himself.  After all, in 99% of fantasy baseball rankings in the world, Pujols will be the overall most valuable player.  There is no need to say anything more than that about the best fantasy commodity in baseball.  Miguel Cabrera is a huge season waiting to happen.  This kid actually reminds me a great deal of Pujols.  He broke into the league at a young age and started producing from day one.  He also has never had what you can call a “bad” season.  He hits for power, drives in runs, and his batting average is awesome.  The only thing Pujols offers that he does not is speed.  Cabrera is that magic age of 27 years old this season.  The other three choices are also fine additions to your team that will provide the offensive power and run production that you can build your team around.

Ryan Howard’s batting average is usually not as good as the other options in the first tier, but his RBI total year to year is awesome.  Prince Fielder has as much power as any of these names, but his final line varies a bit from season to season (HR TOTALS:  2007 – 50, 2008 – 36, 2009 – 46).  If you draft him in a season where he puts it all together, you get one of the best fantasy players in the game.  Finally, we come to Mark Teixeira.  He has power (though has not broken the 40 HR mark in several seasons) and his batting average is consistently high.  If he can just start hitting during April like he does later in the season, he could be a top 10 player (he is a notoriously slow starter).

Second Tier : Justin Morneau, Adrian Gonzalez, Joey Votto, Kevin Youkilis, Kendry Morales, Adam Dunn, Derrek Lee

These options at first base are all quality that you can draft for a cheaper price, but can put up production that help your team greatly.  All, however, have some flaw that keep them out of that top tier.  The name on this list that people are most often going to point to as belonging in the top tier is Adrian Gonzalez.  Coming off of his first 40 HR season, his owners love his ability.  I do too.  What keeps him out of the top tier is two-fold.  Firstly, his batting average and RBI total from year to year is not in the upper echelon of the position.  He has not had a BA over .282 in the last three seasons, and in two of those three seasons his RBI total was under 101.  Also, his ballpark and supporting cast are working against him repeating the power he showed, and his RBI total improving much.  He is quality, but since his price in your auction is likely to be as high as the previous tier, you should let him pass your team by.

Justin Morneau is another name that often is ranked with the top names at first base.  Sure, he puts together a good season now and again, but his final stat line is very different from season to season.  One year he will hit .271, then the next year he will hit .300.  One year he will hit 31 HR, the next he will hit 23.  Even his RBI total varies greatly, ranging from 100 to 129 over the last three seasons.  This unpredictability keeps him in the second tier.  Joey Votto is one of the up-and-comers at first base.  He hit everything that moved in the first half of 2009, with a .351 batting average.  Even in the second half when he cooled off to only .300, his power levels remained just as high as in the first half.  If he can maintain that batting average and power levels (and stay on the field for 550 ABs) he could join the upper level as soon as 2011.

Everyone knows that Adam Dunn has great power, and usually has a bad batting average.  It is that batting average that keeps him in the second tier year after year.  I will not raise him up to the top level because he brought that average up to .267 last season.  Derrek Lee is old, and his resurgent 2009 is no reason to pay the price as though he was back in his prime.  Lee, to me, is one of those players that GMs are going to massively overpay for in 2010 fantasy drafts and auctions.  See my Overrated Fantasy Hitters article for details.  Kendry Morales was a great pickup last season, but I would like to see him repeat those numbers (and boost that runs total) before he is ranked any higher.  I would also like to see him hit better while batting right-handed.  There is a good argument to put him in the third tier instead of the second.

Third Tier : Pablo Sandoval, Victor Martinez, Lance Berkman, Carlos Pena, Billy Butler

There is good upside in this tier.  Both Pablo Sandoval and Billy Butler could take steps forward in 2010 which would seriously upgrade their ranking.  Sandoval swings at everything he sees, but keeps that batting average high.  Butler’s surrounding cast limits his run production upside, and he has yet to show more than 20-something HR power.  He is, however, country strong and a 30 HR season is possible.  Victor Martinez will go for too much bid money or too high a draft pick to use at first base.  Someone will use him at catcher, where is is indeed worth much more.  Carlos Pena sure has power, but that batting average will cost your team some points.  Be careful paying to much for just the HR category.  Poor Big Puma.  Lance Berkman has been very inconsistent over the seasons, and the wheels just completely came off the bus is 2009.  With his lowest RBI and HR total since 2005, Berkman’s price is sure to be reduced in 2010.  I would love to grab him at this reduced price, since he has recovered from similarly poor seasons in his past with monster years the next.

Fourth Tier : James Loney, Jorge Cantu, Paul Konerko, Jose Lopez, Adam LaRoche, Martin Prado, Todd Helton, Garrett Jones, Nick Johnson, Aubrey Huff, Michael Cuddyer,Chris Davis

Look at all this quality talent still around after the “top” 17 options are off the board.  There are really two fantasy baseball strategies for drafting first basemen.  You can use an early draft pick or lots of bid money on a top slugger that will put up huge numbers.  Or you can wait many rounds and pay much less for a player that will produce good-but-not-great numbers, while drafting better players at thiner positions.  If you chose the second strategy, make sure that you get a first baseman that is no lower than this tier.  There are plenty of guys here that will hit you 20ish home runs with a decent batting average and 90ish RBI.  Are they superstars?  No.  However, if you draft someone with that early pick (or large bid) at a thin position (like 2B) that is a superstar and combine their numbers with one of these mediocre 1B options, you can break even with a team that uses the inverse strategy.  Let’s hit the highlights of this tier.

James Loney is consistent, but has failed to take a significant step forward since establishing a baseline of production.  Jorge Cantu has defied the odds to make a nice comeback after two down seasons.  At this point, it appears as though his numbers are reliable though not spectacular.  Garrett Jones is sure to top many fantasy baseball sleeper lists for the 2010.  After hitting 21 home runs in only 314 ABs, plenty of knowledgeable GMs are going to be willing to wait on a first baseman counting on drafting Jones later.

Michael Cuddyer is sure to draw skepticism from fantasy GMs this season.  However, this kid was highly touted when coming into the big leagues, and his numbers were consistent in a month-to-month breakdown of 2009.  While 34 home runs may be a bit much to expect again from Cuddyer in 2010, he is a solid player that can help your team if you grab him late.  Martin Prado is a lower-profile sleeper that has some upside.  Don’t wait too long though, because he does qualify at thiner positions than first base and could be taken at second or third base if you sleep on him.  Do I have to tell you that Nick Johnson is an injury risk?  Jose Lopez was one of only two Mariners that hit more than 20 home runs in 2009.  Like Prado, Lopez can be taken at 2B as well.  Chris Davis was last year’s hot pickup that was overpaid for in leagues everywhere.  Don’t let that be you again this year.  Power potential is great, but a certain bad batting average is awful.  Until he proves he can stick around in the show, contain your excitement (and your bid).

The Rest : Garrett Atkins, Carlos Delgado, Mark DeRosa (10), Mark Teahen (11), Ty Wigginton, Nick Swisher, Hank Blalock, Luke Scott, Russell Branyan, Mike Jacobs, Ryan Garko, Daniel Murphy, Lyle Overbay, Jeff Clement

While there is still upside present in this final tier, you are looking at some longer odds for a breakthrough power season.  In fact, when you get this low in the tiers playing time could start to be an issue.  I am personally not a Chris Davis fan.  There is no questioning that the kid has power, but that walk rate is terrible and the strikeouts come in bunches.  The quickest way for a touted hitter to turn into a fantasy bust is for him to strike out a ton and walk very little.  Garrett Atkins could rebound after a terrible 2009, but how often does a player get better after leaving Colorado?  Carlos Delgado is still looking for a job at the time of this posting, and his age and poor 2009 are working against his fantasy value.  Russell Branyan looked like a resurgence was coming in 2009, but injury derailed his attempt.  I would not bet on such quality production happening again.  Jeff Clement has been jerked around for many seasons, and that could still happen in the crowded first base picture on the Pirates.  Mark DeRosa’s breakout came fairly late in his career.  In that pitcher’s ballpark surrounded by a mediocre cast I doubt his numbers will be as good as in his recent past.

The Rockies have signed Chris Iannetta to a three-year deal.  Iannetta was the big 2008 breakout catcher, but his 2009 was a step backward.  Hopefully the thin air will get back under some of those fly balls and he can regain the ground he lost.

The Astros have to win the award for busiest early team.  They just signed Pedro Feliz.  At this point Feliz’s glove is more valuable than his bat.

The Pirates have signed shortstop Bobby Crosby.  Crosby could get a fresh start with a new team.  He will most likely not start full time right away, but could push for increased playing time if he hits well.

Rafael Soriano has been traded to the Tampa Bay Rays.  This comes days after Soriano accepted the Braves’ offer of arbitration.  Soriano was excellent last season, and was one of the true gems that I found for cheap in our auction.  He took over for an inconsistent Mike Gonzalez and didn’t look back.  Unfortunately, this trade hurts Soriano’s fantasy baseball value in my eyes.  In Atlanta, he was the big dog, clearly the best of the bunch.  In Tampa, he has more competition, and the competition is closer in talent level.  J.P. Howell, Dan Wheeler, Randy Choate, and Grant Balfour all showed decent stuff in 2009.  If Soriano pitches as he did in the first half of 2009 then he should be fine (1.48 ERA, 0.90 WHIP).  He did struggle in the second half though (4.81 ERA, 1.27 WHIP), and similar struggles in 2010 could lead to competition for a 9th inning role.

The Astros just keep the bullpen train rollin’ with the siging of Brandon Lyon.  Lyon had a decent year in 2009, and should begin the season as the team’s closer.  Hopefully one of the two pen signings will wind up a success in the 9th inning.

Well this next announcement is a little upsetting to me.  I have been known to bid too much on Rich Harden.  I like the guy, and think if he could just stay healthy, he could be special (even if just for a year or two).  His 2009 was sub-par, and that trend could continue now that he has signed with the Texas Rangers.  Moving to the American League, and a hitter’s park to boot, I fear I will have to let Harden go this year.  Oh well…

The Astros began rebuilding their bullpen by trading for relief pitcher Matt Lindstrom.  Lindstrom struggled both with health and his control in 2009, and wound up watching Leo Nunez fill the closer roll for much of the year.  As a 2009 Lindstrom owner, I would advise everyone to wait on him until he figures out how to throw another pitch.  He has a great fastball, but when he can’t locate it he has problems.  His slider is not good enough to rely on.  Lindstrom definitely needs a changeup.

The Rangers have trade Kevin Millwood to the Orioles for relief pitcher Chris Ray.  I was a big believer that Ray could make a comeback last season, and drafted him in several leagues.  Needless to say, he did not pan out that well.  Going to a hitter’s park is not going to help him keep the ball in the yard.  The opposite is also true.  Millwood could have a surprise good season removed from The Ballpark in Arlington.

“Su-prise, su-prise, su-prise.”  -Gomer pile.  Andy Pettitte has signed with the Yankees.  Go figure.  The guy still commands a high price, and can still pitch to win.  Fantasy-wise, he is overrated.

Another marathon negotiation has finally ended.  Randy Wolf has signed with the Milwaukee Brewers.  You have to give props to Wolf, as he turned his out of the blue career year into big bucks.  I personally do not expect him to come close to the excellent ratios that he put up in 2009.  That was the first season since 2002 that Wolf posted an ERA under 4.0 or a WHIP under 1.27.  Don’t do what the Brewers did and overpay for him in your fantasy draft or auction.

It is finally official, Chone Figgins is a Seattle Mariner.  We’ve heard about it for days now, but it has just now happened.  I am unsure why the Mariners felt this was such a great player that they had to lock him up so early.  The ONE thing they already have is a leadoff hitter, and I don’t see the Mariners pissing off their best player by dropping him to the second spot.  One thing they do not have is power.  Only Jose Lopez, and Russell Branyan hit more than 20 HRs in 2009.  Figgins will start at third base, and most likely hit second.

It looks as though the New York Yankees have acquired outfielder Curtis Granderson in a three way deal with the Tigers and the Diamondbacks according to FOXSports.com.  Granderson was not the only fantasy commodity that changed hands in this deal, as the Tigers and D’Backs swapped starting pitcher Max Scherzer and Edwin Jackson.  The Yankees also traded away Ian Kennedy, Austin Jackson, and Phil Coke in the deal.  Obviously, this increases the value of Granderson as he now will be hitting in a top MLB lineup.  The value difference on Scherzer is less clear.  He is on a better team (we think) than he was before and he is in a better ballpark for pitchers, but he now goes to the American League.  Edwin Jackson could find an easier time of it in the lower pressure environment of the National League West.